Thursday, 21 February 2019

First post-SNC-Lavalin polls look bad for Trudeau Liberals

https://twitter.com/DavidRayAmos/with_replies




Replying to and 49 others
"Some of us NEVER had any faith in the Trudeau Liberal government. for several reasons."

Methinks the Conservatives et al should finally Google "T-1557-15" N'esy Pas?


https://davidraymondamos3.blogspot.com/2019/02/first-post-snc-lavalin-polls-look-bad.html





https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-polls-snclavalin-1.5026798



First post-SNC-Lavalin polls look bad for Trudeau Liberals



4169 Comments
Commenting is now closed for this story.



Garry Horsnell
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Garry Horsnell
There many reasons Canadian voters are losing faith in PM Trudeau and his Liberals.

It's not just because of the SNC Lavain issue.


Garry Horsnell
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Garry Horsnell
@Garry Horsnell

Sorry, that should be SNC Lavalin

Fern Dignard
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Fern Dignard
@Garry Horsnell
Many? I only know of this one. And that's enough for me.

JOHN CHUCKMAN
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JOHN CHUCKMAN
@Garry Horsnell

Yes, indeed, especially where it comes to confidence in Trudeau.

He has pretty much steadily deteriorated in two years.

Legalizing pot was hardly a weighty policy, but it's his one clear achievement.

Anyway, since he's been leader, I think we 've all seen there just ain't that much there. He's not even a particularly effective speaker.

A sense of weakness comes through for me, which an event like this just magnifies.

We saw the weakness in India. We saw it in his dropping election reform, after strongly promising it. We see it in the pipeline matters. We see it in relations with the US and China.

And for me - who once shook hands with his father and admired his independence and strength and who much admired Liberal leaders like Pearson, Chretien, and Paul Martin - his weakness most shows in the ugliness of Venezuela and "the Lima Group," pure nauseating Tony-Blair-in-Iraq stuff.

But to whom do we have to turn? My God, if we only had a Jack Layton. Or even an honest Joe Clark. No, we have smiling insurance salesman, whom I would count on for little, and the man at the NDP, who at first seemed an interesting choice, but who has had no impact, not even holding a seat.

Our national politics seem almost as barren as those godawful days of Harper and Ignatieff. That was truly "the pits," as they say, but this is like an unwelcome echo.


Neil Gregory
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Neil Gregory
@Garry Horsnell

Some of us NEVER had any faith in the Trudeau Liberal government. for several reasons.

First, the Liberals have a VERY poor track record when it comes to keeping their election promises, and Trudeau has followed that pattern. After three and a half years in power he has kept fewer than half of his promises.

Second, the Liberals have a long track record of scandal after scandal, and Trudeau's crowd are certainly following that pattern.

Third, this political party picked as its leader someone form it back benches with very little experience in Parliament and no proven leadership abilities excapt a famous name from a past era.

James Holden
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James Holden
@Garry Horsnell

The alternative Conservatives had many of their number convicted in court while running down the country and making life harder for Working Canadians.
They hobbled their own and future governments with terrible long term deals.
The only ones who benefit from Conservative governments are the already rich.

Robert Green
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Robert Green
@Garry Horsnell Still better than Harper and the reformacons were.

Sally Ride
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Sally Ride
@James Holden for example?

Kevin Delaney
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Kevin Delaney
@Garry Horsnell
Like the Conservatives before a list of mistakes has been made by JT. There is enough of a mass to have them go critical. It can be corrected if there is an admission of error by JT particularly re his behavior towards JWR. However, I do not think JT is capable of such an admission.

Matt Bryson
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Matt Bryson
@Garry Horsnell
venezuela, china, and beyond

David Amos
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David Amos
@Neil Gregory "Some of us NEVER had any faith in the Trudeau Liberal government. for several reasons."

Methinks the Conservatives et al should finally Google "T-1557-15" N'esy Pas?

Jack Cochrane
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Jack Cochrane
@James Holden do you have ANY names to back up this completely false claim? And, please, the Liberals are nothing more than corporate shills making the rich richer.

Jesse Patrick
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Jesse Patrick
@Garry Horsnell
For me it's the crony capitalism that got them into the Lavscam mess in the first place. Flipping back to the Cons again would just be more of the same. Time to end ALL Corporate Welfare. PPC 2019!


David Amos
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David Amos
@Garry Horsnell :"Sorry, that should be SNC Lavalin"

Methinks a crooked company spelled in any fashion by mistake still stinks N'esy Pas?


Jim LaPalmier
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Jim LaPalmier
@Garry Horsnell

Just 'talking the talk' doesn't cut it in the long run; a case of Live by 'the Image', Die by 'the Image' for JT ?


Peter Boone
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Peter Boone
@Garry Horsnell It is hard to believe that anyone could still support a government that circumvents the law to benefit criminal friends.

Nadine Mardini
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Nadine Mardini
@JOHN CHUCKMAN Thank you for a very thoughtful comment.

Jim LaPalmier
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Jim LaPalmier 
@JOHN CHUCKMAN
"..... But to whom do we have to turn? ..... ".

The 'illusion' of choice in Canadian politics; no wonder Canadian voters are so jaded.
Sad.
How about this: if you hold an election, and the 'partys' and their candidates cannot lite enough of a fire under the electorate's butt to generate a legitimate 75% voter turnout, the election is declared 'null & void' and the whole thing has to be redone with new candidates for each party until the 75% threshold is achieved ?
[I know, I know, we'll probably NEVER end up with with an elected Government that way. ].











gene Dautry
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 gene Dautry
scandal after scandal with this government


Al Kap
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Al Kap
@gene Dautry
And the last government. What’s your point? It’s always the same.

Charly Vaughan
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Charly Vaughan
@gene Dautry if Duffy wins his appeal....the odour of Harper should ensure another 4 years of sunny ways

mo bennett
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mo bennett
@gene Dautry politicians always look bad, regardless of flavor, it's genetic.

Jamie Gillis
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Jamie Gillis
@gene Dautry

And things are just getting started. This one is nowhere close to finished. Next month Grewal's fundraiser information comes out. The VAdm Norman trial starts this summer and so far it hasn't reflected well on the PMO.

Jamie Gillis
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Jamie Gillis
@gene Dautry

Also, this latest headline from the Globe this morning likely isn't a good sign (for Trudeau): "Wilson-Raybould told cabinet SNC-Lavalin pressure was improper"

Robert Green
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Robert Green
@Jamie Gillis Ooooooh the pressure.Compared to the Harper government and it's shenanigans the liberals look like angels.

Ryan Tasker
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Ryan Tasker
@gene Dautry
The sad part is that these "scandals" are mostly small potatoes vs EVERYTHING Harper perpetuated against the Canadian people.

Jack Cochrane
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Jack Cochrane
@Ryan Tasker oh yes, that shocking $90,000 that Mike Duffy spent, just atrocious. Or that $16 glass of OJ. Such an affront to democracy they were. Oh, wait a minute, that's right, after the RCMP investigation and the court trial all charges were dropped. Seems quaint now compared to this mafia of a government we have currently.

David Amos
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David Amos
@mo bennett YO MO Why do you spell like a Yankee?


David Amos
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David Amos
@Jack Cochrane "Seems quaint now compared to this mafia of a government we have currently."

Methinks that was an interesting spin Perhaps you should Google "David Amos wiretap" sometime N'esy Pas?









 Rachael Saunders
 Harvey keck
I have to admit I was wrong. I have said in the past that Pierre Trudeau was the worst PM ever. That was wrong. Justin has outdone him ten fold.

Rachael Saunders
Rachael Saunders
@Harvey keck My dad used to cringe when you mentioned Pierre Trudeau's name. I do the same when anyone mentions Justin.

Mar Pell
Mar Pell
@Rachael Saunders

Suspect that he is still tatooed blue since the era of Diefenbaker or Mulroney.

Steven Saunders
Steven Saunders
@Rachael Saunders that makes two of us.

David Amos
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David Amos
@Harvey keck Methinks Louis Riel , Trudeau the Elder and many other ghosts would agree that Sir John Alexander Macdonald will forever be the champ of corrupt Canadian Prime Ministers N'esy Pas?


Alex Matheson
Alex Matheson
@Rachael Saunders
Yes indeed. Just like most Canadians cringe when they hear Harpers name. Some people just bring out the worst in others.

david mccaig
david mccaig
@Harvey keck

"I have to admit I was wrong. I have said in the past that Pierre Trudeau was the worst PM ever"

Prime Minister Pierre Elliot Trudeau was ELECTED to 15 years in office by the Canadian voters making his the longest serving PM in recent history, that makes you wrong asserting he was the 'worst PM ever'

david mccaig
david mccaig
@Harvey keck

"Pierre Trudeau was the worst PM ever"

December 1969 - John Lennon loved by hundreds of million of followers added comment about Pirre Trudeau : "We spent about 50 minutes together, which was longer than he had spent with any head of state. If all politicians were like Mr Trudeau there would be world peace."

david mccaig
david mccaig
@Harvey keck

The worst FEAR of most Canadians is the country being run by the conservative mechanism that put Doug Ford in POWER.

Smith John
Smith John
@david mccaig

It's funny that right now the Liberal's have a chance to be open and honest.

The fact that they moved too far left is why the are going to lose next election.

James Fitzgibbon
James Fitzgibbon
@Harvey keck

Why is it the far right is only capable of speaking in hyperbole?

david mccaig
david mccaig
@Harvey keck

I think the nonsense posted here by the right wing is giving me ulcers .

david mccaig
david mccaig
@Harvey keck

Could you imagine a conservative Doug Ford type on the world stage representing Canada and all the questions the world would ask including is this REALLY the mindset of Canadians.

Terry Robinson
Terry Robinson
@Harvey keck

You might want to look at Harper's record for some good information, including using massive omnibus bills to hide his destroying all protection of our environment so that foreign corporations could ravage it with impunity. That's not to mention his god- awful mismanagement of our finances.

Terry Robinson
Terry Robinson
@david mccaig

This is Harper's CBC.

David Amos
David Amos
@Terry Robinson This is OUR CBC










Steven Saunders 
Jason Martin
I hate to admit it, but Harper was right, Trudeau was and still isn't ready to lead Canada.


 
James Timberly
James Timberly
@Jason Martin "I hate to admit it, but Harper was right, Trudeau was and still isn't ready to lead Canada."

Why would a purely partisan commentor "hate to admit" such a purely partisan thing? This article discusses how the Lib polling numbers have taken a hit recently and this is true. Yet they still poll higher than the Cons. This - despite that thing that you "hate to admit". Is it because admitting that says more about whatshisname? than it does about Trudeau? I mean, if it's true that everyone thinks Trudeau "isn't ready" (lol), why do they still want him as PM over whatshisname?
Now the hard thing that conservatives need to admit to themselves so that they can contend for real is in fact, the same as the answer to my last question above - Identity politics. Admit that hard to admit thing, and move on from it, and you might actually see the polling results flip one day.

Jason Martin
Jason Martin
@James Timberly

I hate to admit it because I voted for Trudeau and really hoped he wouldn't be the stereotypical politician.

Simple as that.

Ed Riley
Ed Riley
@Jason Martin ......where is Richard Sharp????
I need his totally unbiased analysis of these polls to fully understand why Trudeau and the Liberals are tanking.
I'm sure Richard has a reasonable explanation that we can all agree with.

Joe Rosco
Joe Rosco
@Ed Riley ---- Usually he is around to support Trudeau, you know that Trudeau is in trouble when Richard stays silent.

Jack O Hill
Jack O Hill
@Charles Beale

"Let's not quote the PM of the Dark Decade, please"

That refers to the time under PET. I agree.

david mccaig
david mccaig
@Jason Martin

THESE POLLS were conducted at the height of uninformed HYSTERIA, brought on by the theatre of mostly billionaire owned entertainment outlets that call themselves NEWS

david mccaig
david mccaig
@Jason Martin

TRUTHFULLY does anyone really believe corporate pollsters don't have political leanings and are instead in the business to sway voters.

david mccaig
david mccaig
@Jason Martin

I BELIEVE polling corporations are set up by the establishment to MANUFACTURE CONSENSUS and CONSENT, kinda a biased CHEAT SHEET for low information Canadians.

Mark stanford
Mark stanford
@Charles Beale I don’t understand what was so bad about Harper , he ran a balanced budget, economy did alright while the Americans economy was very bad, you must be from the east and probably work for the government or you don’t work and like all the freebies The Liberals give out.

Mark stanford
Mark stanford
@david mccaig you must not pay taxes, anyone with half a brain and a job should never vote liberal, they always steal tax payers money and waist it, plus there always scamming to fill there own pockets.

David Amos
David Amos
@Ed Riley "I'm sure Richard has a reasonable explanation that we can all agree with."

Methinks thou doth Jest too much N'esy Pas?











Steven Saunders 
Tom Burridge
Justin can easily turn this around....all he has to do is....
Build 3 pipelines......
Secure the border...
Cancel bill C 69...
Balance the budget..
Cancel the carbon tax...


 
david mccaig
david mccaig
@Tom Burridge

Securing OUR BORDERS to keep Americans from entering Canada and spreading their brand of right wing corporate for profit poison, Im all for that .

Gary McCaig
Gary McCaig
@Harry Hibbs
A lot could be achieved by simply gagging Trudeau so he can't invite the world to come to Canada.


David Amos
David Amos
@Tom Burridge Good Luck with your pipe dream coming true











Steven Saunders 
Rachael Saunders
Trudeau and the Liberals have veered too far left for most Canadians. The Conservatives are the only hope for a return to some common sense in Canada.



 
 
Jack O Hill
Jack O Hill
@Michal Scur

" if you think the liberals have veered far left then you have lost sight of the left/right political spectrum."

Hmm, who to believe: you, or the group of international political scientists that created the CBC Vote Compass.

According to it (and them), on a scale of 0 - 10 (zero is extreme left, 10 is extreme right), the Liberals get a 2.5, and the CPC gets a 7.

David Amos
David Amos
@Rachael Saunders "The Conservatives are the only hope for a return to some common sense in Canada"

Yea Right










Steven Saunders 
Jim Smith
Justin Trudeau is the classic spoiled rich kid who never had to work for any thing in his life. He was given the liberal leadership and the PM job because of his name. He had no qualifications for the job and he believed his own foolishness about how Canada should be as a country. He thought he was untouchable and that everybody loved him like some kind of cult leader. It took him 3.5 years to ruin everything for the liberals and he is well on his way to ruining this once great country.


 
Philip Nicholson
Philip Nicholson
@david mccaig
Ooooo Davie. I take it you do'on't like conservatives (three in a row not related to the article.) I don't buy the born into wealth bit. The Labels and Tag business was split four ways with Doug as a junior partner with 20%. I don't know how many sticky labels and tags that gets you put where not really talking a hi profit margin business. Charles Emile Trudeau was extremely wealthy but I get the sense much of the family has been frittered away.

Jim Smith
Jim Smith
@david mccaig You seen upset. Please take three deep breaths, and then choke on the third one.

David Amos
David Amos
@Jim Smith Well put










Steven Saunders 
John Smith
I see the die hard Liberal supporters are very scared. lol


Theo Nugent
Theo Nugent
@John Smith

Yep they post about 10 x each

Catherine Haigh
Catherine Haigh
@John Smith The die hard Conservative supporters should be just as scared.

Both parties "play politics" so much so that their real duties and responsibilities get pushed so far back onto the back burner that facts and information are impossible to find. One party mimics the other to fine tune the communication strategies. Every word gets crafted to put image over substance while people complain that the government just won't listen.

Wendy Travis
Wendy Travis
@John Smith

We are indeed. We are not too partisan to be bothered by this, and yet who is there left to vote for in October. If JT is not fit to govern, it does not make Sheer any less terrible.

Robert Green
Robert Green
@John Smith Why would anyone be scared when no one knows the the story yet.

david mccaig
david mccaig
@John Smith

"I see the die hard Liberal supporters are very scared. lol"

And i see is the conservatives DESPERATELY trying to make a mountain out of a mole hill

david mccaig
david mccaig
@John Smith

Can you imagine back to the days of conservatives back in power and spending tens of millions in our courts fighting our VETERANS, LIKE BEFORE.

David Magner (YYC)
David Magner (YYC)
@John Smith

I see the die hard right wingers suddenly do believe the polls. Didn't believe them a month ago did you.

David Amos
David Amos
@John Smith Methinks many would agree most of their spin doctors aren't clever enough to be even nervous N'esy Pas?

David Amos
David Amos
@Theo Nugent Mr Mccaig takes the cake









Buford Wilson 
Buford Wilson
Obstruction of justice in the first degree.

Justin needs to do the right thing and resign.


Valentina Tereshkova
Valentina Tereshkova
@Buford Wilson What obstruction?

James Conner
James Conner
@Valentina Tereshkova lol, how about firing the AG when she wouldn't override the Director of Public Prosecutions so they could put their own lackey in there to do there bidding.

david mccaig
david mccaig
@Buford Wilson

You know WHATS WORSE for Canadians than the perhaps Trudeau political indiscretions , the FEAR of a return of the Stephen Harper conservatives.

david mccaig
david mccaig
@Buford Wilson

Buford welcome back to Canada, hows life at your home in America?

david mccaig
david mccaig
@Buford Wilson

Nothing worse than Russians interferring in Canada's politics , than trans border Americans trying to tell us we should vote conservative like them .

david mccaig
david mccaig
@Buford Wilson

THE RUSSIANS prefer conservatives in power in western democracies, Trump has shown us they're easier to manipulate.


David Magner (YYC)
David Magner (YYC)
@Buford Wilson

You know Scheer met with SNC-Lavalin to talk about deferring prosecution too, right? It's in his own public records.

Jack O Hill
Jack O Hill
@David Magner (YYC)

Do you understand the difference between meeting with lobbyists and meeting with the Auditor General?

The highly educated left strike again.

David Magner (YYC)
David Magner (YYC)
@Jack O Hill

I don't play hockey so I'm not a left winger, nor a goalie or anything else.

Sure I know the difference. I see no difference between one party leader currying favour with a giant employer in a province he want to win seats in and another party leader currying favour with the same giant employer because he wants to keep the seats he already has in that province. Both parties are corrupt as h e double hockey sticks and the giant company pulls both their strings.

Thanks for playing though. The jump to conclusions right strikes again.

David Amos
David Amos
@Buford Wilson "Obstruction of justice in the first degree"

YUP

David Amos
David Amos
@James Conner I concur











Steven Saunders 
Emile Nelligan
Chantal Hébert, The Star Columnist this morning on French CBC.
"How can he crisis management when he has difficulties managing himself".
"Trudeau is disarticulating himself as he goes on!"
"In meeting with his MP, if the idea isn't his, he's dismissive, harsh in tone"
"In a Press conference, when he gave lengthy one, he was evasive, confused and left more questions unanswered then answered"

Ouch !


Don Cameron
Don Cameron
@Emile Nelligan said,
"Ouch !"

That's our boy JT.

Tony Trowel
Tony Trowel
@Emile Nelligan
Interesting, she's a liberal as they get.

Leszek Hoszko
Leszek Hoszko
@Emile Nelligan From a Quebecer! Ouch indeed

Tim Mason
Tim Mason
@Emile Nelligan JT totally owned by a hardcore Quebec Liberal! I’m lovin’ it!

george bath
george bath
@Tony Trowel
How does one know this about Chantal?
another conservative confabulation

Norbert Harrison
Norbert Harrison
@Emile Nelligan
Chantal Hébert is a good reporter.

Emile Nelligan
Emile Nelligan
@Norbert Harrison Analysis are razor sharp!

Brian Allen
Brian Allen
@Emile Nelligan

Sounds like he’s very difficult to work with, mildly abusive to staff, not a good “team player,” and prone to hissy fits. N’est pas?

Emile Nelligan
Emile Nelligan
@Brian Allen Don't know but that information of his style in closed meetings tells me that his MPs are starting to get impatient and annoyed with his style of leadership and are starting to speak to the press about it.

david mccaig
david mccaig
@Emile Nelligan

If as Trump BRAGGED he could shoot someone in the street and still get elected, then any political forepaws by Justin Trudeau almost GUARANTEE HIS RE-ELECTION.

david mccaig
david mccaig
@Emile Nelligan

Trumps showing us what you get when you vote conservatives into ultimate POWER.

David Amos
David Amos
@Norbert Harrison "Chantal Hébert is a good reporter"

I disagree

David Amos
David Amos
@Brian Allen Methinks I should agree with you N'esy Pas?










Steven Saunders 
Normy Crow
Liberals are suffering from a lot more than a single issue hit. Trudeau`s performance across the board has been dismal.No matter how hard CBC tries to gloss it over.


george bath
george bath
@Normy Crow
Increased child care benefits
increased Veterans benefits best ever
the conservatives are suffering from a lack of knowledge about what the government has done.

Tim Joseph
Tim Joseph
@Normy Crow *caw* *caw* oooo something shiny

Normy Crow
Normy Crow
@george bath
Done your taxes? How much you up?
Ask a vet.
Liberals are wearing rose coloured glasses.

Normy Crow
Normy Crow
@Tim Joseph Brilliant,for a Liberal.

drew Currah
drew Currah
@george bath
And a generation killing deficit which is strangling our economy and will impoverish our children for a generation.
Not a good trade.

David Amos
David Amos
@Normy Crow "Trudeau`s performance across the board has been dismal.No matter how hard CBC tries to gloss it over."

Oh So True

David Amos
David Amos
@george bath Whereas you have faith in the system perhaps you should Google T-1557-15 then scroll down to statement 83 of the claim












Steven Saunders 
Anthony Kennedy
Justin has lost a ton of credibility and you don't get that back. He is finished.


george bath
george bath
@Anthony Kennedy
fake news

Mike Wazowski
Mike Wazowski
@george bath I wasn't aware Trudeau used George Bath as a pseudonym

Alison Harms
Alison Harms
@Anthony Kennedy We can hope. He will, of course, try to buy back his credibility with our money.

Verne Gerchin
Verne Gerchin
@Anthony Kennedy

"Justin has lost a ton of credibility"

When did he have ANY???

David Amos
David Amos
@Anthony Kennedy" Justin has lost a ton of credibility"

Methinks he never had a ton of it in the first place N'esy Pas?






First post-SNC-Lavalin polls look bad for Trudeau Liberals

Conservatives gaining, Liberals sliding in first polls published since SNC-Lavalin affair erupted


Justin Trudeau's Liberals have suffered a drop in support in polls conducted since the Globe and Mail reported allegations of political interference on the part of the prime minister's office in the prosecution of SNC-Lavalin on bribery-related charges. (Sean Kilpatrick/Canadian Press)


The fallout from the SNC-Lavalin affair is only beginning to rain down on Justin Trudeau and his Liberal government but it seems to be having an impact — one that could put the Liberals on track to defeat in this fall's federal election.

The controversy surrounding allegations about political interference in the prosecution of SNC-Lavalin, a major Quebec-based engineering firm, and the subsequent demotion and resignation from cabinet of former attorney-general Jody Wilson-Raybould (followed by the resignation of the prime minister's principal secretary, Gerry Butts), is evolving on a daily basis.

The first polls published since the Globe and Mail initially reported the allegations on Feb. 7 suggest that the Liberals have taken a significant hit in public support.




The CBC's Poll Tracker, an aggregation of all publicly available polls, puts the Liberals and Conservatives neck-and-neck in voting intentions and virtually tied in the number of seats each party would be likely to win if an election were held today.

Right now, there's no clear indication of which party would emerge with the most seats in a general election — a significant shift from where things stood at the end of 2018, when the Poll Tracker gave the Liberals a better than 90 per cent chance of winning an election.

For the Liberals, the trend line might only get worse.

Three polls that were conducted entirely after the initial Globe reports emerged have been published in recent days — from Campaign Research (Feb. 7-11), Ipsos/Global News (Feb. 14-18) and Léger/Canadian Press (Feb. 15-19). The last two surveys were conducted after Wilson-Raybould's resignation from caucus and include some data gathered since Butts stepped down on Monday.

Campaign Research showed the Conservatives ahead with 37 per cent to 32 per cent for the Liberals, while both Ipsos and Léger put the margin at 36 to 34 per cent in the Conservatives' favour. Since December, when both polling firms were last in the field, the Liberals have lost one point in Campaign Research's polling and four percentage points in the Ipsos poll, while the party is down five points since November in the Léger poll.

The Conservatives have gained two to three points over that time.

The only shift that appears statistically significant is the five-point Liberal slide recorded by Léger — but the fact that all three polling firms are picking up similar trends suggests that the swing between the Conservatives and Liberals is real.

SNC-Lavalin wearing on Trudeau


Campaign Research also picked up a drop of four points in Trudeau's own approval rating (to 35 per cent), while Ipsos found the number of respondents saying the Liberals deserve to be re-elected has plummeted eight points since December to 38 per cent.

Léger reports satisfaction with the government is down nine points and Trudeau's own score on Canadians' preference for prime minister is down seven points to 26 per cent. That this drop did not result in any sizeable gain for any of his opponents suggests it's more about Trudeau himself than it is about the performance of any other party leader.

The Léger/Canadian Press poll provides some indications of the impact of the SNC-Lavalin affair in particular. The poll finds that Canadians are paying attention, with 67 per cent reporting some awareness of the story.

Of those with some knowledge of the controversy, 41 per cent agreed with this statement: "Yes, the prime minister did something wrong." Only 12 per cent said that the prime minister "did not do anything wrong."

Another 41 per cent said that they were "not sure either way," suggesting that many Canadians are still waiting to learn more before coming down on one side or the other. That might be the silver lining here for the Liberals: most Canadians polled either believe the prime minister or are still giving him the benefit of the doubt.

But it also means that if the story generates more negative headlines for the government (and there are few indications so far that it won't), there aren't very many Canadians predisposed to believe the Liberals' side of the story.

Liberals hurting in Quebec, but mostly Ontario


While the impact of the affair has sapped the Liberals in every part of the country, there is a difference between what the polls are saying in the two largest provinces that inevitably will decide the next federal election.

Across the three surveys, the Conservatives made gains in both Ontario and Quebec while the Liberals lost support. (The NDP also is down consistently in Quebec and the Bloc Québécois up, but that was a pre-existing trend that probably has little to do with the SNC-Lavalin affair.)

The swing was more pronounced in Ontario than it was in Quebec, where concerns about the impact of the affair on SNC-Lavalin's future have been more prevalent. The Conservatives gained between three and six points in Ontario in the three surveys, averaging a gain of just under five points. The Liberals lost between three and seven points, for an average loss of just over five points.

Both Ipsos and Léger recorded slides for the Liberals in Ontario sizeable enough to be statistically significant.


Andrew Scheer's Conservative Party has made gains in the polls in Quebec and particularly in Ontario in recent weeks. (Sean Kilpatrick/Canadian Press)
In Quebec, however, the Conservative gain was only three to four points, with the Liberals dropping two to four — all within what would be the margin of error for probabilistic samples of the sizes surveyed in the province.

The trend is pointing in one direction, which is notable. But so far, the impact in Quebec seems less pronounced. Both Léger and Ipsos still give the Liberals a double-digit lead in Quebec, while the race is now either tied or leaning Conservative in Ontario.

That could have some important electoral implications if the trends hold. As it stands now, the Liberals are still projected to gain seats in Quebec — perhaps about a dozen — but are also on track to lose as many as 30 in Ontario. Even if the Liberal slide in support halts, that alone would make it nearly impossible for Trudeau to secure another majority government in the fall.

Of course, October's federal election is a long way off. The SNC-Lavalin story and the polling trends might change (and change again, and again) between now and then. But based on where the story and the trends are heading now, the Liberals have to hope for a swing back in their direction.

About the Author

 


Éric Grenier
Politics and polls
Éric Grenier is a senior writer and the CBC's polls analyst. He was the founder of ThreeHundredEight.com and has written for The Globe and Mail, Huffington Post Canada, The Hill Times, Le Devoir, and L’actualité.
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