Liberal Charles Sousa wins federal byelection in Mississauga-Lakeshore, CBC News projects
Contest is first under Pierre Poilievre's Conservative leadership
Sousa was leading Conservative candidate Ron Chhinzer on Monday in the coveted Greater Toronto Area riding by more than 600 votes at 10:45 p.m.
Sousa was Ontario's finance minister under former premier Kathleen Wynne. He lost his seat in the 2018 provincial election that saw the Liberals fall from the governing party to one without official status in the legislature.
Chhinzer is a gang prevention expert and member of the Peel Regional Police Service serving in Mississauga.
There were 40 candidates in the byelection, with the vast majority running as Independents.
The vote was announced after Sven Spengemann, the former Liberal MP, announced earlier this year that he would resign to pursue a new job at the United Nations.
Polling stations in Mississauga were open from 8:30 a.m. until 8:30 p.m. on Monday.
with files from Canadian Press
Polls close in federal byelection in Mississauga-Lakeshore
Contest is first under Pierre Poilievre's Conservative leadership
It's
the first contest under the Conservative leadership of Pierre
Poilievre, in an area of the country crucial to his party's chances of
success in future federal elections. (Peter Power/The Canadian Press)Voters have cast ballots for a field of 40 candidates in Mississauga-Lakeshore.
It's the first contest under the Conservative leadership of Pierre Poilievre, in an area of the country crucial to his party's chances of success in future federal elections.
And the contest, in a district the Tories won when Stephen Harper earned a majority mandate, comes seven years into the tenure of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, whose government is on its second minority stint in Parliament.
But the Liberals recruited a well-known former Ontario cabinet minister as their candidate for Mississauga–Lakeshore, and Poilievre has been scarcely visible as parties test their ground game a year after the last general election.
"The Liberals should be able to win," said Philippe Fournier, the creator of 338Canada, a statistical model of electoral projections based on polling, demographics and elections history.
Still, he warned that byelection results are not always meaningful in the grand scheme.
"If the Conservatives pull it out, it's a big story. If the Liberals win by five or six points, it's just business as usual," he said.
Fournier said Conservatives will need to learn how to win again in the regions outside of Toronto if Poilievre wants a kick at the can as prime minister.
"When you look at the riding map, the Conservatives have maxed out in Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta. They could win maybe a handful more in Atlantic provinces, maybe two, three more in Quebec, maybe two, three more in B.C.," he said.
"That doesn't give you victory. They have to win more in Ontario. Where are the potential gains for the Conservatives? It's into the Mississaugas and the Scarboroughs."
Tory candidate a police officer in Peel Region
Ron Chhinzer, the Conservative candidate in the race, is a gang prevention expert and member of the Peel Regional Police Service serving in Mississauga. He did not respond to multiple requests for an interview.
Brian Gallant, 53, a Conservative voter, said he doesn't know much about Chhinzer but will vote for him nonetheless.
"I am tired of the Liberals, and we need a change, we definitely need a change," he said.
Charles Sousa, Ontario's finance minister under former premier Kathleen Wynne, lost his seat in the 2018 provincial election that saw the Liberals fall from the governing party to one without official status in the legislature.
Prime
Minster Justin Trudeau delivers remarks next to Charles Sousa at his
campaign office during a byelection campaign stop on Dec. 1, 2022. (Tijana Martin/The Canadian Press)
He said his experience representing the community west of Toronto and navigating government makes him the most qualified person for the federal seat.
"People want someone who is positive, open-minded, listens to them and gets things done. And so I try to avoid the partisan stuff. I don't get to the extremes of the spectrum," he said.
"Nothing's gonna change in Ottawa, regardless of the outcome of this election. So who do you want to fight for you and be there for you? I'm getting a lot of positive feedback."
40 candidates running
Joining Sousa in the crowded 40-candidate race — with the vast majority of hopefuls running as Independents — is the NDP's Julia Kole, whose party placed a distant third in the riding's last three elections.
Kole, a former constituency staffer for a member of the provincial legislature, suggested that people who are frustrated with the Liberals should turn to the NDP rather than to the Conservatives.
"Look what the NDP has been able to accomplish. In a time where there is a lot of indecision, or a lot of delays of decision from the Liberal government, we are working to hold them accountable," she said. "We're small, but we're mighty."
The byelection was announced after Sven Spengemann, the former Liberal MP, announced earlier this year that he would resign to pursue a new job at the United Nations.
Polling stations in Mississauga are open from 8:30 a.m. until 8:30 p.m. on Monday, with their locations available on Elections Canada's website.
Canada's own (miniature) midterm election will be in Mississauga-Lakeshore
A December byelection in the Toronto suburbs has big political value
While the United States was hurtling toward the dramatic conclusion of another round of national elections last week, Canada was quietly embarking on its own, smaller (much, much smaller) version of the American midterms: a byelection in the Ontario riding of Mississauga-Lakeshore.
Unlike the recently completed U.S. elections, the balance of power and the future of democracy are not at stake in Mississauga-Lakeshore. But because of where the riding is, how competitive the race could be and when it is happening, this single byelection has unusually high narrative value.
Sven Spengemann, the former Liberal MP for the riding, stepped down in May and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau triggered a byelection to fill the vacancy last Sunday. The vote will take place on December 12.
Though Spengemann won the riding three times, Mississauga-Lakeshore can't be considered a "safe" Liberal seat. In 2015 and 2021, Spengemann's margin of victory was fewer than 4,000 votes and the Conservatives won the riding in 2011 on their way to a national majority.
To improve their chances of holding the riding, the Liberals have found a "star" candidate – former Ontario finance minister Charles Sousa. The Conservative candidate will be Ron Chhinzer, a police officer in the Peel region.
Sousa won the provincial riding three times between 2007 and 2014, but lost there in 2018 to the Progressive Conservative candidate.
Like American midterm elections, byelections are typically harder on the governing party. An analysis by the Writ's Eric Grenier in 2018 found that the governing party's vote declined by an average of 2.9 percentage points when a byelection was held.
Intuitively, that makes sense — isolated byelections don't require voters to think about who should govern for the next four years and opposition parties can focus on whatever frustrations the public has with the incumbent government.
But recent governments have also held their own in these skirmishes.
Since forming government in 2015, Trudeau's Liberals have retained seven of their own seats in byelections, flipped two ridings that were held by other parties and lost only one seat that was previously theirs. Between 2006 and 2015, Stephen Harper's Conservatives retained nine seats, picked up four and lost one.
Byelections were harder for Brian Mulroney's Progressive Conservatives and Pierre Trudeau's Liberals. Mulroney's government retained two seats and lost four. Trudeau retained 12, won four and lost 13.
Prime
Minister Pierre Trudeau, seen here with Ontario Premier William Davis
in 1978, saw his Liberals perform poorly in a series of byelections that
year. (The Canadian Press)
A large part of Pierre Trudeau's poor record can be traced to a single day in October 1978. After allowing a number of vacancies to pile up, Trudeau triggered 15 byelections at once. Seven of the seats previously belonged to the Liberals, but the governing party emerged from the mini-election with just two.
Seven months later, the Liberals lost power when Joe Clark's Progressive Conservatives won 136 of 282 seats in the 1979 general election.
Of course, it would be unreasonable to assert now that a single byelection can predict what will happen in the next general election — especially if that general election could be more than two years away. Any number of unforeseen events or crises could unfold between now and whenever the Liberals and New Democrats decide that their confidence-and-supply agreement has run its course.
But a win by either of the Liberals or Conservatives would be framed in stark terms. (If the NDP wins, no one will know quite what to say.)
If the Conservatives win, it will be presented as evidence that Pierre Poilievre's message and complaints about the government are resonating in the all-important suburbs around Toronto — and the result might stoke questions about whether Justin Trudeau is the right person to lead the Liberal Party into the next election.
If the Liberals win, it will be offered up as evidence that Trudeau and the Liberals maintain some strength with a significant slice of the electorate — and that Poilievre hasn't broken through.
Whether Mississauga-Lakeshore has any impact on the future of the country is anyone's guess. But the winners will go into the Christmas break feeling that much better about themselves.
And if you've been feeling jealous about the "excitement" that American voters have experienced over the last few months, you can look forward to a little bit of lower-stakes fun over the next four weeks.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
YO Sebastien Corhino Methinks Pierre Poilievre and Chucky Sousa understand why I would vote for Peter House if I could N'esy Pas???
---------- Original message ----------
From: "Ien, Marci - M.P." <marci.ien@parl.gc.ca>
Date: Sun, 11 Dec 2022 22:00:22 +0000
Subject: Automatic reply: YO Sebastien Corhino Methinks Pierre
Poilievre and Chucky Sousa understand why I would vote for Peter House
if I could N'esy Pas? ???
To: David Amos <david.raymond.amos333@gmail.
Thank you for emailing the Office of the Honourable Marci Ien, Your
Member of Parliament for Toronto Centre
We are currently dealing with a high volume of emails, please be
advised that email inquires will take up to 7 business days for a
response.
We hope you and your loved ones are safe and healthy during this time.
Your voice is important to us and we appreciate the time you took to
reach out to us today.
Thank you again for your note and your patience as we respond to a
high volume of messages. If this is urgent, please call our
Constituency Office at 416-972-9749
All physical mail sent to the Toronto Centre Constituency office or
our Ottawa Office will be subject to delays in retrieving since our
offices are physically closed due to COVID-19.
If you have inquiries regarding Municipal Concerns:
please contact Robin Buxton Potts, your City Councillor for Ward 13
Email: councillor_BuxtonPotts@
Phone: 416-392-7903
If you have inquiries regarding Provincial Concerns:
please contact Kristyn Wong-Tam, your Member of Provincial Parliament
for Toronto Centre
Email: Kwong-Tam-QP@ndp.on.ca
Phone: 416-972-7683
If you are unsure whether your issue is of a Federal, Municipal, or
Provincial matter please visit the following website:
https://lop.parl.ca/About/
If this is an emergency please call 9-1-1.
If you are sick, or looking for information on COVID-19 and how to
prevent spreading the virus, please visit the following websites:
www.Canada.ca/Coronavirus<http
www.ontario.ca/coronavirus<htt
https://www.toronto.ca/home/
The following telephone numbers may be useful, although please read
the instructions on the websites before calling in to ensure that the
phone lines are open for those most in need:
· Public Health Agency of Canada: 1-833-784-4397
· Tele-health Ontario: 1-866-797-0000
· Toronto Public Health: 416-338-7600
For 24/7 Mental Health and Wellness Services
please visit: www.wellnesstogether.ca<http:/
or text WELLNESS to 741741 or call 1-866-585-0445 (Adults)
or text WELLNESS to 686868 or call 1-888-668-6810 (Youth)
For 24/7 First Nations and Inuit Wellness Services
please call: 1‑855‑242-3310
For 24/7 Crisis Line for Residential School Survivors
please call: 1 (866) 925-4419
Thank you for your patience and understanding.
Kindest Regards
Toronto Centre stands on the traditional territory of many nations
including the Mississaugas of the New Credit, the Anishinabeg, the
Haudenosaunee, and the Wendat Peoples
---------- Original message ----------
From: Leader <leader@greenparty.ca>
Date: Sun, 11 Dec 2022 21:59:01 +0000
Subject: Re: YO Sebastien Corhino Methinks Pierre Poilievre and Chucky
Sousa understand why I would vote for Peter House if I could N'esy Pas? ???
To: David Amos <david.raymond.amos333@gmail.
-- Please reply above this line --
Thank you for contacting the Office of the Leader of the Green Party
of Canada, Leader Elizabeth May, and Jonathan Pedneault, Deputy
Leader.
We receive a high volume of correspondence, so you may experience a
delay in receiving a response. While it may not be possible to respond
to every message directly, please be assured that your email will be
read and re-directed as necessary.
Please send any urgent requests or invitations that require immediate
attention to media@greenparty.ca [1].
Office of the Leader
Green Party of Canada
_This email is privileged and confidential. If you have received this
email in error, please notify the sender and delete it._
______________________________
Merci de contacter le Bureau du chef du Parti vert du Canada, chef
Elizabeth May et Jonathan Pedneault, chef adjoint.
Nous recevons un grand nombre de messages, donc les délais de
réponse peuvent varier. Dans le cas où ce n’est pas possible de
répondre à votre message directement, soyez assuré.e que votre
courriel sera lu et réacheminé vers la personne concernée.
Si votre demande est urgente ou s’agit d’une invitation, veuillez
contacter [2]media@greenparty.ca [3].
Bureau du chef
Parti Vert du Canada
_Ce courriel est confidentiel. Si ce message vous a été adressé par
erreur, veuillez le supprimer et en aviser l’expéditeur._
Links:
------
[1] mailto:media@greenparty.ca
[2] mailto:rosie.emery@greenparty.
[3] mailto:media@greenparty.ca
---------- Original message ----------
From: David Amos <david.raymond.amos333@gmail.
Date: Sun, 11 Dec 2022 17:58:44 -0400
Subject: YO Sebastien Corhino Methinks Pierre Poilievre and Chucky
Sousa understand why I would vote for Peter House if I could N'esy Pas? ???
To: sebastien.corhino@gmail.com, peter@peterhouse.ca,
Mary.kidnew@greenparty.ca, Julia.Kole@ndp.ca, contact@ronchhinzer.ca,
"pierre.poilievre" <pierre.poilievre@parl.gc.ca>, "jagmeet.singh"
<jagmeet.singh@parl.gc.ca>, "fin.minfinance-financemin.
<fin.minfinance-financemin.
<leader@greenparty.ca>, pm <pm@pm.gc.ca>, "Katie.Telford"
<Katie.Telford@pmo-cpm.gc.ca>, "marci.ien" <marci.ien@parl.gc.ca>,
"Matthew.Green" <Matthew.Green@parl.gc.ca>, "Mitton, Megan (LEG)"
<megan.mitton@gnb.ca>, Newsroom <Newsroom@globeandmail.com>,
NightTimePodcast <NightTimePodcast@gmail.com>, nsinvestigators
<nsinvestigators@gmail.com>, paulpalango <paulpalango@protonmail.com>,
"Robert. Jones" <Robert.Jones@cbc.ca>, rokaku8 <rokaku8@gmail.com>
Cc: motomaniac333 <motomaniac333@gmail.com>, longestballot@gmail.com,
office@fairvote.ca, jenn@jenniferross.ca, tamara.arden2@fairvote.ca,
connect@jennibyrne.com, "Nathalie.G.Drouin"
<Nathalie.G.Drouin@pco-bcp.gc.
From: Sébastien CoRhino <sebastien.corhino@gmail.com>
Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2022 18:22:17 -0500
Subject: Re: YO Sebastien Corhino do ya think the Team Trudeau candidate
To: David Amos <david.raymond.amos333@gmail.
Cc: asilnicki@healthcoalition.ca, info@simongmessier.ca,
fin.minfinance-financemin.fin@
"blaine.higgs" <blaine.higgs@gnb.ca>, briangallant10
<briangallant10@gmail.com>, "bruce.fitch" <bruce.fitch@gnb.ca>,
BrianThomasMacdonald@gmail.com
ministre@msss.gouv.qc.ca, "jake.stewart" <jake.stewart@parl.gc.ca>,
jbosnitch@gmail.com, oldmaison <oldmaison@yahoo.com>, andre
<andre@jafaust.com>, sallybrooks25 <sallybrooks25@yahoo.ca>,
"hon.ralph.goodale" <hon.ralph.goodale@canada.ca>, "hon.melanie.joly"
<hon.melanie.joly@canada.ca>, "Hon.Dominic.LeBlanc"
<Hon.Dominic.LeBlanc@canada.ca
<motomaniac333@gmail.com>, "pierre.poilievre"
<pierre.poilievre@parl.gc.ca>, csousa@liberal.ca, pm <pm@pm.gc.ca>,
"Katie.Telford" <Katie.Telford@pmo-cpm.gc.ca>
RHINO DEALER HERE
ALWAYS READY FOR A GREAT REPLY TO ALL
I THINK I HAVE WIN THIS ELECTION
#MISSISSIPPI-LAKESHORE
- sÉB
*Sébastien CoRhino*
Chef & Dealer
Parti Rhinocéros Party
www.PartyRhino.ca <http://www.partyrhino.ca>
*Please consider making a donation or buying a T-Shirt on our website! *
*Merci de faire un don ou acheter un T-Shirt sur notre site web!*
https://www.elections.ca/
List of candidates
Mississauga--Lakeshore (Ontario)
This list of confirmed candidates was issued on Wednesday, November 23, 2022.
| Candidate name | Status | Party name | Office phone number | Candidate's website * | Name of official agent | Name of auditor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khaled Al-Sudani | Confirmed | People's Party of Canada |
|
|
Ali Al-Sudani |
|
| Mélodie Anderson | Confirmed | Independent |
|
|
Kieran Szuchewycz |
|
| Myriam Beaulieu | Confirmed | Independent |
|
|
Kieran Szuchewycz |
|
| Line Bélanger | Confirmed | Independent |
|
|
Kieran Szuchewycz |
|
| Mylène Bonneau | Confirmed | Independent |
|
|
Kieran Szuchewycz |
|
| Jean-Denis Parent Boudreault | Confirmed | Independent |
|
|
Kieran Szuchewycz |
|
| Jevin David Carroll | Confirmed | Independent |
|
|
Kieran Szuchewycz |
|
| Sean Carson | Confirmed | Independent |
|
|
Ludmilla von Hoyningen Huene |
|
| Ron Chhinzer | Confirmed | Conservative Party of Canada | (905) 486-1706 | Website Ron Chhinzer | David Maynard | Chris Climo |
| Sébastien CoRhino | Confirmed | Parti Rhinocéros Party |
|
Website Sébastien CoRhino | Kieran Szuchewycz |
|
| Charles Currie | Confirmed | Independent |
|
|
Kieran Szuchewycz |
|
| Stephen Davis | Confirmed | Independent |
|
|
Kieran Szuchewycz |
|
| Mark Dejewski | Confirmed | Independent |
|
|
Kieran Szuchewycz |
|
| Ysack Dupont | Confirmed | Independent |
|
|
Kieran Szuchewycz |
|
| Donovan Eckstrom | Confirmed | Independent |
|
|
Kieran Szuchewycz |
|
| Alexandra Engering | Confirmed | Independent |
|
|
Kieran Szuchewycz |
|
| Daniel Gagnon | Confirmed | Independent |
|
|
Kieran Szuchewycz |
|
| Donald Gagnon | Confirmed | Independent |
|
|
Kieran Szuchewycz |
|
| Kerri Hildebrandt | Confirmed | Independent |
|
|
Kieran Szuchewycz |
|
| Peter House | Confirmed | Independent | (647) 471-0717 | Website Peter House | William Douglas House |
|
| Martin Acetaria Caesar Jubinville | Confirmed | Independent |
|
|
Kieran Szuchewycz |
|
| Samuel Jubinville | Confirmed | Independent |
|
|
Kieran Szuchewycz |
|
| Mary Kidnew | Confirmed | Green Party of Canada | (289) 724-1860 | Website Mary Kidnew | Dana Bryant | Tracy Capstick |
| Julia Kole | Confirmed | New Democratic Party | (647) 823-5653 | Website Julia Kole | Diana Sandor |
|
| Alain Lamontagne | Confirmed | Independent |
|
|
Kieran Szuchewycz |
|
| Marie-Hélène LeBel | Confirmed | Independent |
|
|
Kieran Szuchewycz |
|
| Conrad Lukawski | Confirmed | Independent |
|
|
Kieran Szuchewycz |
|
| Spencer Rocchi | Confirmed | Independent |
|
|
Kieran Szuchewycz |
|
| Eliana Rosenblum | Confirmed | Independent |
|
|
Kieran Szuchewycz |
|
| Julian Selody | Confirmed | Independent |
|
|
Kieran Szuchewycz |
|
| Roger Sherwood | Confirmed | Independent |
|
|
Kieran Szuchewycz |
|
| Adam Smith | Confirmed | Independent |
|
|
Kieran Szuchewycz |
|
| Charles Sousa | Confirmed | Liberal Party of Canada | (905) 817-0127 | Website Charles Sousa | Ziggy Krupa | Kha Dang |
| Julie St-Amand | Confirmed | Independent |
|
|
Kieran Szuchewycz |
|
| Pascal St-Amand | Confirmed | Independent |
|
|
Kieran Szuchewycz |
|
| Patrick Strzalkowski | Confirmed | Independent |
|
Website Patrick Strzalkowski | Kieran Szuchewycz |
|
| Tomas Szuchewycz | Confirmed | Independent |
|
Website Tomas Szuchewycz | Kieran Szuchewycz |
|
| Ben Teichman | Confirmed | Independent |
|
|
Kieran Szuchewycz |
|
| John The Engineer Turmel | Confirmed | Independent |
|
|
Delahnnovahh Livingstone |
|
| Darcy Justin Vanderwater | Confirmed | Independent |
|
|
Kieran Szuchewycz |
|
Hi, I’m Peter House and I’m running as an Independent in the Federal By-election in Mississauga-Lakeshore…and I have a lot to say about it!
Hello Canada,
Get ready for a breath of fresh air in the political landscape because I am a totally different beast of aspiring politician than you’ve ever seen before. I’m 32 years old, I think for myself and I’m running on fresh ideas that are sure to impress.
My name is Peter House and I am excited to be running as an Independent in the federal by-election happening in Mississauga-Lakeshore on Dec 12th.
I grew up here. My mum taught math at LPSS for more than 35 years where I also went to school. Growing up with a politically active teacher, I was raised to strategically vote Liberal. The Harris government, 1997 Ontario teachers’ strike and the double cohort that marked the end of grade 13 are vivid memories that shaped my political identity.
Many years ago, this riding was a Conservative stronghold but in recent elections it’s been a fiercely competitive race between the Liberal machine and the Conservative elite. Strategic voting is usually extremely popular here…I know all too well as the former President of the NDP Mississauga Riding Association from 2017-2019. (Personally I left the NDP because labour has taken a backseat to identity politics – which presents a huge electability problem for the party.)
However, this by-election doesn’t present the usual motivations for strategic voting since decisions in the House of Commons over the next 3 years will not be swayed by an additional Liberal nor Conservative (nor NDP) Member of Parliament.
Earlier this year I founded the provincial Electoral Reform Party and ran in the Ontario election on June 2nd in the most student dominated riding in Canada of Waterloo where I went to school and lived for the past decade. I got about 150 votes without a budget, media attention nor team.
I am running on the same 4-point platform as I did in the provincial election earlier this year:
1.) Electoral Reform is at the heart of my campaign. We need ranked ballots with proportional representation and I am a proponent of Single Transferable Vote.
STV would remove the motivation for strategic voting. Canadians wouldn’t need to consider how everyone else was voting and could instead rank their true preference on the ballot without being punished. The representation we have in government would better reflect the way people voted and parties with only a third of the popular vote wouldn’t get majorities.
2.) Legislation that mandates our MPs hold a town hall in their riding each month so their constituents can hold them accountable face-to-face and so MPs have a pulse on the riding they ought to be representing.
3.) Legislation that mandates our MPs write a weekly blog entry or vlog entry – something publicly available explaining what they’ve been doing as our representatives. Currently we just receive quarterly partisan leaflets that are identical to the neighbouring ridings except they put the local guy’s face on the front. It’s basically just party propaganda.
4.) Legislation that ties 10% of our representatives’ salaries to their approval rating amongst their constituents in their riding. With the way the votes are whipped, our representatives never vote against their own party. Party discipline is strong in Canada and politicians rely on their party’s support to get elected. Legislation that gave our representatives a financial incentive and an out to justify voting against their own party would create an environment where our politicians actually considered the interests of their constituents instead of always voting with their party.
Electoral reform with STV isn’t just about being fair to voters. The big picture with electoral reform is that many of the issues Canadians are most passionate about lack the political will necessary for actually passing legislation that addresses the issues. This is largely due to lack of competition between political parties that stems from having First Past the Post.
Take telecoms for instance. Rogers, Bell and Telus have been ripping us off for decades. There is broad consensus among Canadians of all political stripes to address the aggressive price gouging of the telcom monopoly yet our politicians sit on their hands! This is clearly a winning issue, why doesn’t our government take action? There isn’t enough competition among the parties to justify sticking their neck out to address the problem. Politicians rely on media coverage from these corporations in order to be elected and so passing legislation that threatens Bell/Rogers/Telus profits would inevitably lead to bad media coverage and electability problems. Apparently the Liberal and Conservative leadership agree the political risk to their parties is too high and with a lack of competition in First Past The Post, that’s all that matters.
The true power of a fair voting system like Single Transferable Vote is it increases competition among the political parties…just like how fair regulations in the telecom industry would increase competition in the telcom industry. Increased competition disincentivizes politicians from fearmongering about their political rivals and encourages them to run on actual policy. It rewards politicians who actually speak to voters’ interests.
The way things are right now, most Liberals don’t vote for their party out of love for the Liberals but because they fear Conservative policies or doubt the NDP’s electability (or both). But if voters didn’t have to consider how popular their true voting preference was, political fear tactics would be much less effective.
In today’s political landscape with First Past the Post, politicians are completely beholden to their parties because they can’t get elected without the funding, resources, and brand recognition of their party. They can’t go on a limb or make promises beyond the preapproved party rhetoric – even if they’d like to or if it suited their particular riding.
It happened to former ONDP MPP Paul Miller earlier this year. When he was kicked out of the Ontario NDP he ran for reelection as an independent…He and the replacement ONDP candidate split the vote and they both lost to a Conservative candidate last June.
Here in Mississauga-Lakeshore, I am running against Kathleen Wynne’s righthand man – the former Ontario Liberal Finance Minister Charles Sousa. I went to high school with his kids and my parents have campaigned for him in the past.
I invited Charles out to a quiet little bar in July of this year to pick his brain for a couple hours about electoral reform, the OLP leadership race and this by-election. We both learned a lot from the conversation but one of my key takeaways was electoral reform wasn’t something on his radar and he’d never heard of STV. But I’m sure Charles understands electoral reform wouldn’t be in his best interests as a Liberal partyman. He wouldn’t win a seat in this riding if voters leaning NDP stuck to their guns. And I think he understands even if he were a vocal proponent of electoral reform that Justin Trudeau already poisoned the well reneging on the issue… so he would only lose credibility if he ran on electoral reform because of his party affiliation with Liberals.
Charles Sousa is running on a cookie cutter Liberal Party platform and while I have a great deal of respect and gratitude for him, I’m disappointed to tell you he isn’t running on any ideas of his own.
Of course, that’s nothing unusual in Canadian politics. Our politicians vote with their party leaders 99% of the time and the reason it isn’t 100% is because their voting records don’t match-up when one of them is absent. With the way the votes are whipped in government, a novice programmer could replace our representatives with a single line of computer code so that their votes matched their party leaders and the results would look the same.
If you haven’t noticed by now, I am a different breed of politician. I think for myself and I put constituents interests first, not a party. Which is something Charles Sousa claimed in the debate at the Army Navy & Airforce Veterans Club on November 15th so I combed through Charles Sousa’s Voting Record for us.
Charles, you have never once voted against your own party. Not even as a token gesture to insulate yourself from being pegged as a blindly obedient partyman. You were Wynne’s right hand man through and through.
My fellow Mississaugians, if all you’re looking for is a man in a red tie to sit with Justin Trudeau and obey the party whip – then Charles is your guy. After 11 years of spineless party obedience there is no expectation he will do anything differently as a federal MP.
My fellow Canadians, I am offering you the alternative you’ve been asking for – an actual voice in your government.
I will hold monthly town halls in-person every month in the riding, so you can put me on the spot, ask me hard questions and embarrass me in public. They will be broadcast online. That’s what or municipal leaders do (multiple times) every week. It’s not unrealistic.
I will write a weekly blog entry or vlog entry – something telling you what I’ve been doing as your local representative.
I will tie 10% of my salary to my approval rating amongst my constituents and I will pay for independent pollsters to determine what my approval rating is.
If you want me to do something for you, I’m the only one you need to convince.
And I swear on my life I will fight for electoral reform.
————————————————————————————————–
“That sounds pretty good Pete. But the only people who oppose accountability of government are politicians. Where do you stand on the actual issues? I can’t feed my family with electoral reform and town halls.”
Let me be candid.
The economy is not working for ordinary Canadians. We have horrendous inflation that is difficult to quantify, palpable corporate greed and a central bank that literally advocates for increased unemployment as a solution. Canadians are carrying record levels of debt.
First of all, I want to remind Canadians that they are less trapped than they might feel. If the banks have loaned money irresponsibly it’s the banks who should suffer. We enjoy one of the best passports in the world and your credit rating will not follow you outside North America. If things really go tits up, you aren’t trapped here like a stadium-building-slave in Qatar. Your North American credit rating will be absolved in seven years. But this is a cop-out answer. And I’m being provocative on purpose here. I don’t think politicians are aware how many Canadians, particularly people around my age, are seriously considering leaving for greener pastures and taking their publicly subsidized educations with them. There are real steps we can take to improve the financial lives of Canadians living domestically. The most obvious being to address the stagnant wages.
We’ve got to bring manufacturing back. This is a rare overlap between Biden and Trump. We cannot depend on China. We must invest in Canadian manufacturing and reignite bigger projects like Avro Arrow.
We have a lot of notorious monopolies in Canada. Bashing Rogers-Bell-Telus is a national pastime. Have you heard the story of Sasktel? It’s not a story the (telecommunication owned) corporate media would tell you… Sasktel is a telecommunications company owned by the province of Saskatchewan that is priced so low that Rogers, Bell & Telus have resigned to offer their usual cellphone plans at a fraction of their usual price for users signing-up inside Saskatchewan’s borders. Rogers isn’t violating their fiduciary responsibilities by slashing their prices to Saskatchewanians…they must do it in order to compete at all. This is market socialism.
We can copy this model in Ontario or even nationally. And if Rogers doesn’t like it, they should look in the mirror because they’ll have brought it on themselves. Furthermore, our reliance on cell phones in society has reached the point where they need to be recategorized as a utility (along with home internet).
Speaking of monopolies and market socialism, we should be considering government owned grocery stores too. The government needs revenue, and the market needs more competition.
In the past I have been in favour of Liberal gun control policy but it’s already pretty good and the recently proposed legislation affecting rifle owners strikes me as overreach.
If the federal government wants to address gun violence, gangs and organized crime it should primarily be focusing on the economic and social conditions that lead people to commit crimes.
Additionally, the federal government needs to seriously reexamine the tax rate and pricing of legal marijuana. Weed is the backbone of the Canadian black market. And if legal weed is actually competitive with the online black market, dispensaries and drug dealers, then the funding and violence associated with organized crime will dramatically diminish. But there’s a lot more to the black market than just pot.
None of the parties have a plan to tackle the opioid epidemic. It’s as if they’d rather we stop talking about it. In my view, drug addiction should be treated as a health problem not a criminal problem. We’re wasting tax dollars prosecuting minor drug possession and throwing addicts in jail. I think Canadian politicians should be debating the merits of Portugal’s drug policy and adopting similar legislation that levies fines, mandates addiction treatments, counseling, or community service on a case-by-case basis for small amounts of drug possession. Dealers trafficking hard drugs still deserve harsh punishments. Portugal’s drug policy was highly controversial and experimental back in 2001 but today it’s supposedly political suicide to suggest reverting back to the old ways.
It’s ironic my last name is House because I sure can’t afford one. I’m living with my parents right now. Canadians are being gouged on rent and the affordability of owning a house has escalated to a nationwide crisis. I am a stick framer and contractor myself so I know the cost of timber and building supplies has spiked. But it’s the overheated real estate market that has made housing prohibitively expensive. Speculative investors are buying up properties faster than we can build them so we can’t build our way out of the problem without additional legislation that shields the housing market from speculative investors. Additionally, we need a lot more non-market housing.
The Liberal government proposes we bring in an additional 500,000 immigrants by 2025. I’m not so sure that’s a good thing and I am not a bigot. Where are they going to live? Where are they going to work? If we can’t answer these questions for existing Canadians what hope do new immigrants have? I oppose the Temporary Foreign Worker program because it undercuts the value of Canadian labour and is a significant factor in our incredibly stagnant wages. We already have high unemployment that the Bank of Canada proposes we only increase! The opportunities in Canada are not what the once were even a decade ago and I worry we are falsely advertising to immigrants.
Identity politics is a hot button issue. Canada is seen as exemplary on the international stage when it comes to combating racism, sexism and bigotry by and large…but bigotry unfortunately is alive and well in Canada. I don’t buy-in to the “cultural mosaic” rhetoric and I suspect our indigenous communities know what I’m talking about when I say there is a mainstream culture that is not as inclusive as it claims to be. While we have our differences with the Americans we largely share a culture with the USA. The thing about identity politics though is it serves to divide us. Regardless of who we are as individuals, we have more in common with one another than the political culture in North America would have us believe. I mentioned I used to be the President of the NDP Riding Association here in Mississauga-Lakeshore and a big part of the reason I stepped down was because I felt the party had put identity politics optics ahead of its labour worker priorities. That might not be self-evident from the outside but internally within the NDP it’s quite pronounced. And the same is true for the Liberals (but that’s nothing new). Even if you agree with their priorities, it’s an electability problem for the left-wing parties in Canada. So if you feel as I do that political parties are a means to end for enacting political change, I think our leftwing parties in Canada need to reexamine their emphasis on identity politics so they can build a winning coalition.
I am an environmentalist. Environment and Resource Studies was initially my major at the University of Waterloo. But we are a nation whose economy is largely build upon resource extraction and the real challenge to reversing climate change is squaring that circle. I have mixed feelings about pipeline discussions for that reason. There are obvious political advantages to supplying ourselves and our trading partners with oil that the war in Ukraine highlights. (Germany definitely regrets being so reliant on Russian oil.) I would like to see refineries inside Canada instead of enriching America with our resources. We need to get real about climate change though. Given that heat pumps have more than 100% efficiency (shocking but true) and are just air conditioners running in reverse, I propose we subsidize the sales of air conditioners equipped with the additional plumbing and valves needed to use them as heat pumps. And I’m considering whether or not we should ban the sales of air conditioners without heat pump capabilities. “Heat pumps are a proven and reliable technology in Canada, capable of providing year-round comfort control for your home.” On the subject of waste, we need to challenge corporations on their packaging of products to reduce waste. Recycling is overemphasized. Our technology to recycle isn’t actually very good and when we talk about consumer recycling, we are letting the corporations that package all this stuff in plastic off the hook. Nuclear power *is* green along with wind, solar and hydro. We will need nuclear energy to meet our climate goals. And of course, one of the most obvious solutions to climate change is to fund the heck out of rapid transit to reduce our dependency on fossil fuels. Every politician talks about rapid transit now.
Continuing to expand public transit infrastructure has lots of political will, even among conservatives. But our public transit sucks. Mississauga in particular has terribly slow transit, with incredibly indirect routes and city planning that’s hostile to pedestrians and transit users. Our transit doesn’t connect people to where they want to go and it’s because we don’t design our cities to have public transit. They’re designed for cars. We just slap a bus route down because we’ve heard public transit reduces CO^2 emissions. If you want to get from Lorne Park to Hwy 10 & the QEW it will take you about an hour because it’s not a continuous route, and the *buses* don’t utilize the QEW which means having to go down to Lakeshore to cross the Credit River. Meanwhile it’s a 10 minute drive by car. Mississauga’s transit system has routes that are too short and that don’t connect the boroughs of Mississauga together without detouring into the middle of the city at Square One. In Waterloo though, there are some staple bus routes like the “8” that circulates through the entire city that can connect you to basically any other part of the city regardless of where you started and where you are going. Kitchener-Waterloo also redesigned the downtown to implement LRT infrastructure to replace the old iExpress bus route. Mississauga’s geography is admittedly more challenging but the problem is poor city planning. I’m a big proponent of rapid transit but we need city planning to enable public transportation to succeed.
Healthcare is a point of national pride. While it is provincial jurisdiction the covid pandemic and vaccination mandates were national issues. I don’t like needles and I don’t like the pharmaceutical industry. Nevertheless, I’m quadruple vaxxed and I actually still haven’t caught covid. Scientists, doctors and our political leaders were right to advocate for vaccines. However, I question the manner in which some of these vaccine mandates were passed into legislation and whether or not they were infringing on Canadian rights. Maybe the ends do justify the means but from a rights perspective I question if our government actually had the power to restrict Canadians in some of the manners it did. The trucker convoy tapped into a real dissatisfaction among Canadians and I think if our federal government was more consistent with covid restrictions and on more solid legal ground to restrict Canadians, the optics and the outcomes of our vaccination strategy would have been much better. I don’t support the convoy and I’m not a legal scholar but I did sympathize with some of their concerns.
While we’re on the subject of healthcare, Doug Ford and other Conservative premiers are letting our public healthcare systems fail in an attempt to garner public support for privatization of healthcare. I believe this is probably the biggest political issue in Canada at the moment although wage stagnation certainly gives it a run for its money.
Lastly, I want to talk about education. Which again is predominantly provincial jurisdiction but remember that a large part of our student loans come from the *federal* government. Post-secondary education has been way too expensive for way too long. We are saddling our young people with debt in a job market that doesn’t even value their degrees or justify the cost. Meanwhile our universities are making a killing. I’ve heard the engineering dept at the University of Waterloo pulls in half a billion each year but you won’t find that figure published anywhere. South of the border, Americans are inching close to *cancelling* a significant amount of student debt and frankly I’m shocked that it’s not even being debated in Canadian government. Since when were the Americans more progressive than we were? University tuitions continue to climb and the quality and value of their credentials is falling. During covid, tuitions for online classes – which were obviously of a lower quality than in-person instruction with our peers – were not discounted and the primary justification for this was that universities did not want to set a precedent for reducing tuition prices. Our federal and provincial governments use students as political pawns but they don’t consider students a significant enough portion of their voting base to actually cater to them. We need to lower tuition fees and threaten to remove government funding for universities if they continue to gouge Canadians.
Alright, so I’ve now given a *much* more comprehensive platform than the Conservatives. I’m a leftie but I have sympathies with the rightwing. The core of my platform is electoral reform (STV) and accountability of government and the only people on the other side of those issues are the existing politicians.
I may not have great chances in this by-election running as an independent but with the existing make-up of the House of Commons this by-election is very inconsequential so there will be far less ‘strategic’ voting which should boost my numbers.
I am looking ahead to the Ontario Liberal Leadership race in the new year and I’d like to leave you with a few thoughts about that. The OLP is a rudderless party of stale ideas and it’s prime for a Bernie Sanders style takeover. This is an incredible opportunity! I plan to run on this platform for the OLP leadership. But instead of courting the existing Liberal loyalists, my strategy will be to court the ocean of dissatisfied Ontarians and transform the party into something sensible that actually represents Ontarians – including young people. I’ll be crowdfunding the $100k required by the OLP to enter the race. I will reduce party discipline so our representatives can put their ridings’ interests before party interests. And I’d like to coordinate with the future ONDP leader so we work together to defeat Doug Ford. I think both parties should consider running less than the full 124 candidates in the next election so they aren’t stepping on each other’s toes. And if none of that pans out I would go back to building the Electoral Reform Party so that Ontarians have a voice in government.
Show your support for me in this by-election and I’ll be a serious threat to the OLP establishment in the Ontario Liberal Leadership race in the new year.
Peter House
Independent Candidate for MP of Mississauga-Lakeshore
(647) 471-0717
peter@peterhouse.ca
tl;dr – I have an unusually sensible approach to politics and accountability. This post is way too long because I’ve taken nuanced positions on well over a dozen issues in an attempt to illustrate what I’m about beyond a surface level. Show your support for me in this by-election and I’ll be a serious threat to the OLP establishment in the Ontario Liberal Leadership race in the new year.
‘Too close to call’: Forty-candidate Ontario byelection will pit Katie Telford against Jenni Byrne for best ground game, say pollsters
Insiders will be watching whether Pierre Poilievre's team can take tools from landslide leadership win 'to become similarly strong in a real campaign where it's the general public, and a lot more voters,' says Innovative Research's Greg Lyle.
The Mississauga-Lakeshore byelection is a contest between Team Katie
Telford and Team Jenni Byrne’s organizational prowess, says pollster
Greg Lyle, adding that the ground game will decide the outcome. The Hill Times file photographs https://338canada.com/35061e.htm
Mississauga–Lakeshore (federal)
MP: Sven Spengemann (LPC)
Latest projection: December 11, 2022
What could an Ontario byelection say about Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre?
OTTAWA — Three months ago, Pierre Poilievre proved he was the populist fighter Conservatives wanted in the next federal election, winning the party’s leadership contest in a landslide.
But how much is he fighting to win over the first of the country’s voters to have their say during his tenure?
On Monday, people living in the Greater Toronto Area riding of Mississauga-Lakeshore will be able to vote in a federal byelection triggered by the resignation of former Liberal MP Sven Spengemann.
Despite saying that it’s time for change, federal Conservatives have been quick to dampen expectations for the contest — and any suggestion that its outcome is a reflection of Poilievre’s early leadership, or his message to Canadians.
For one thing, they cite an anticipated low voter turnout, with two weeks left until Christmas. Poilievre has also been busy staffing the party and his office on Parliament Hill. And the Liberals have held the riding for the past three elections, though Stephen Harper’s Conservatives won it in 2011.
But the biggest hurdle many trot out is the opponent Conservatives are up against. That’s former Ontario finance minister Charles Sousa, who represented a Mississauga riding for the provincial Liberals until his defeat in 2018. The Tories nominated Ron Chhinzer, a local police officer with a considerably lower profile.
Even Poilievre himself has laid low. A scan of his social media channels on Friday found no mention of the byelection or evidence of his presence in the riding, although some members of Parliament have visited.
Poilievre’s office didn’t respond to a question about whether he plans to campaign with Chhinzer. As of Friday, Poilievre was in Atlantic Canada.
Conservative political strategist Shakir Chambers said a win for Chhinzer would be an obvious show of momentum for Poilievre in a region where the Tories want to find success. But if it goes the other way, he said, one takeaway could be a lesson about Poilievre’s message delivery.
“When you look at the 905, the Mississauga area and the Brampton area, a lot of those folks can go either way at any time,” he said.
“It’s very important for folks to realize what Pierre is talking about, where he stands on certain issues, and not take it for granted that he’s this household name because he had a lot of momentum in the leadership race.”
During the 2021 federal election, Conservatives lost the riding by fewer than 4,000 votes. Erin O’Toole had targeted it and other Toronto-area ridings by preaching a moderate conservative message — but it came up short with both prospective new voters and party faithful.
Having won the leadership with more support than the party’s past two leaders, Poilievre enjoys a much more unified caucus. But he has eschewed the conventional way of spreading his message, rarely speaking with national media.
He has also opted to give interviews to smaller outlets, such as local radio stations and media that serve members of the country’s immigrant and racialized communities in and around Toronto and Vancouver — demographics Conservatives know they must win over if they want to form the next government.
Overall, it’s an unprecedented way of doing things, Chambers said, and he questioned whether it will translate for a national audience. “Is this an effective strategy in a general kind of capacity? Or was it only good when you were talking to the (party’s) base?”
Philippe Fournier of 338Canada, a statistical model of electoral projection based on polls, demographics and election history, said Poilievre appears to be “preaching to the converted” with that approach.
“The Conservatives, if they want to win — it’s not getting two or three points in front of the Liberals, it’s getting two or three points in front of the Liberals in the suburbs, or in urban Canada,” he said. “And so far, we see no indication that that’s the case.”
Ginny Roth, who was Poilievre’s communications director during the leadership campaign, defended the strategy, saying the leader is not “dogmatic” about who he speaks to. She pointed to the fact that he recently fielded questions about inflation outside the House of Commons — though his appearance in front of parliamentary reporters has so far been rare.
Poilievre has got mixed reviews for the issues he has chosen to highlight in the early days of his leadership and in the lead-up to the first federal contest during his tenure.
A go-to topic has been inflation, a subject popular with all opposition parties as the country sees record-high inflation and economic anxieties increase. Poilievre is a fiscal hawk, having served as a longtime finance critic for the party.
He has also been speaking out about crime and has vocally opposed Liberal gun legislation intended to permanently outlaw some types of firearms.
In November, Poilievre broadened his message to state that “everything feels broken,” putting out a five-minute video filmed in front of a homeless encampment in Vancouver. In the ad, Poilievre said the policy of delivering toxic drug users a safe supply of opioids is a “failed experiment.”
The controversial position drew swift condemnation from drug policy experts and Liberal MPs, who said it was unscientific and even dangerous amid Canada’s ongoing overdose crisis.
Roth cautioned that Poilievre’s message should not be dismissed out of hand, saying that his political talent is being able to relate to Canadians and speak to how they really feel about issues.
And longtime Conservative Fraser Macdonald said some of Poilievre’s rhetoric has been a welcome shift away from pandemic-related grievances.
“I’m certainly happy to hear less about issues like vaccines and sort of the niche issues of the COVID era,” said Macdonald, who worked on the campaign of distant runner-up Jean Charest.
“Having just been smoked by them in a leadership race, I’m totally open to giving them a very long runway.”
Though Poilievre has steered clear of mentioning Alberta Premier Danielle Smith’s controversial sovereignty bill, he has maintained his support for the “Freedom Convoy” protesters who staged a weeks-long demonstration in downtown Ottawa last winter in opposition to COVID-19 restrictions, with their parked trucks blocking the streets around Parliament Hill.
He qualified that support recently by telling The Andrew Lawton Show that “my preference would have been for them to be on foot and to park their trucks off site.”
No comments:
Post a Comment