Is CBC NB Broken?
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New Brunswick's rapidly falling debt triggers debate on whether to save or spend
The province's debt is down $2.3 billion in three years, one of the deepest cuts ever in Canada
But the achievement is not without critics who contend too much money is being banked when it could be used to fund struggling public services, such as housing and health care.
Last month, New Brunswick Finance Minister Ernie Steeves updated the province's current budget year and projected that by the end of March the province's debt will have declined to $11.6 billion.
That is down $2.3 billion — 16 per cent — in the last three years.
With one exception, it's the largest reduction in debt, in percentage terms, recorded by a Canadian provincial government in at least 40 years. The exception is a 100 per cent reduction achieved by Alberta in the 1990s when the province eliminated its $13.4 billion debt entirely over seven years.)
Economist
Richard Saillant once warned New Brunswick was on a road to bankruptcy
without changes in its finances. He says it is 'undeniable' the Higgs
government helped engineer a turnaround in the province's fiscal
position. (Jacques Poitras/CBC)
"We are able to make progress in assuring the long-term financial health of our province," said Steeves in a statement released with the update.
Economist Richard Saillant, whose 2014 book Over a Cliff? warned that New Brunswick's dismal and deteriorating financial condition at the time risked ending in bankruptcy, said in an interview the turnaround from those days has been "dramatic" and for multiple reasons.
Increased transfers from Ottawa along with exploding tax revenues from population growth and high inflation have generated hundreds of millions of dollars in new provincial revenue. But Saillant said a decision by Premier Blaine Higgs to save much of that money, rather than spend it as other provinces have done, has to be recognized as a central cause of the shrinking debt.
"Higgs did achieve a dramatic fiscal turnaround," said Saillant.
"It's undeniable. We are in a much better position than we have been in a very long while. If someone has a single-minded focus on fiscal outcomes, this is indeed quite an achievement."
Nova
Scotia Premier Tim Houston's government budgeted to spend four times
more on health care infrastructure last year than the New Brunswick
government, saying a growing population in that province required it.
'We're not trying to save money on health care. Whatever it costs, it
will cost.' (Robert Short/CBC)
New Brunswick's debt became a concern more than a decade ago following the 2008 financial crisis that occurred during the then-government of Shawn Graham. Spending increases and stagnant revenues grew the debt for 12 straight years between 2007 and 2019, and eventually it more than doubled in size to $14.0 billion.
In 2016, the debt reached 41 per cent of the size of New Brunswick's annual economic output. That so-called "debt to GDP ratio" was the worst in Atlantic Canada at the time and the second highest among all provinces after Quebec.
At the end of this month, according to estimates by the Royal Bank of Canada, New Brunswick's debt is expected to recede to 25 per cent of the size of the provincial economy. That would rank as the lowest ratio in the Atlantic provinces and best in Canada, east of Saskatchewan.
It's among the single largest improvements recorded in any Canadian province's fiscal condition over any period since at least the early 1980s and perhaps ever.
Premier
Blaine Higgs delivered the annual state of the province speech last
month and highlighted the falling government debt. New Brunswick has
reduced what it owes four years in a row, the only province in Canada to
manage that improvement. (Ed Hunter/CBC)
Michael Yake is an associate managing director with Moody's Investors Service in Toronto.
The agency upgraded New Brunswick's credit rating last year based on a number of factors, including the downward trajectory of its debt levels which he said has impressed the financial community.
"It's quite the achievement," said Yake.
"That's why New Brunswick has the positive outlook, because we do see that the credit risks are decreasing there."
But the reviews are not entirely positive.
Every Canadian province, other than New Brunswick, is projected to post a higher debt level this year from levels posted three years ago, and New Brunswick opposition parties have been calling on the Higgs government to be less stingy on using some of its higher revenues to boost spending on services such as health care, housing and poverty reduction.
The morning after Steeves delivered his latest update, economist Pierre-Marcel Desjardins told Information Morning Moncton that reducing the debt is an important objective but so are other public needs that would benefit from more money.
"It's not a bad idea to reduce the debt, absolutely not. It's a question of balance," said Desjardins.
In neighbouring Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island, which have also been flooded with new revenues, debt has risen over the most recent three years as they spend more aggressively than New Brunswick to accommodate some of the consequences of their own sudden growth in population.
For example, this year Nova Scotia, which has about 30 per cent more people than New Brunswick, budgeted to spend $629.5 million on capital improvements to its health-care infrastructure, about four times more than New Brunswick put in its budget.
Saillant said it will be up to the New Brunswick public to decide which approach it prefers going forward.
"This is a debate that we need to have a society," said Saillant.
"The issue for voters is whether New Brunswick right now is getting the mix right."
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Wins are wins for N.B. Liberals, but Greens celebrate too
Monday’s byelection results preserve the political status quo. That could be good news for PC government
Defeated Green candidate Serge Brideau arrived with a small group of his campaign workers.
Brideau had stopped in earlier to congratulate Liberal leader Susan Holt on beating him in Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-St. Isidore.
For his second appearance, he brought his guitar. Soon he was performing Folsom Prison Blues by Johnny Cash and songs by his own folk-rock band, Les Hôtesses d'Hilaire.
Brideau
performs at the Liberal byelection victory party at a downtown Bathurst
pub Monday night while Holt supporter Stephanie Tomlinson, in white,
and Holt's chief of staff Alaina Lockhart stand by and watch. (Jacques Poitras/CBC)
The remaining Liberals, including Holt's chief of staff Alaina Lockhart and former Bathurst MLA Brian Kenny, seemed alternately bemused and confused as their celebration started to look more like a Green hoedown.
Not a bad metaphor for Monday's byelection results, come to think of it.
As expected, the Liberals swept the three races, in Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-St. Isidore, Restigouche-Chaleur and Dieppe. All three had been Liberal before.
More importantly, Holt got into the legislature, allowing her to go toe-to-toe in debates with Premier Blaine Higgs, whom she hopes to defeat in next year's provincial election.
But the Greens nonetheless squeezed their way into the political frame — or at least avoided being squeezed out.
Brideau got 35.4 per cent of the vote against Holt, almost tripling the Green share in the riding last time.
"I gained a lot and I'm back in 2024, for sure," he said.
In Restigouche-Chaleur, Green candidate Rachel Boudreau got more than
30 per cent of the vote, second to winner Marco LeBlanc. (Serge
Bouchard/Radio-Canada)
In Restigouche-Chaleur, Green candidate Rachel Boudreau, a former mayor, got 31.6 per cent of the vote, placing second to winner Marco LeBlanc. Progressive Conservative Anne Bard-Lavigne trailed with 15.8 per cent.
And in Dieppe, where Liberal Richard Losier scooped up more than two-thirds of the vote, the Greens had 18.8 per cent, compared to a dismal 8.6 per cent for the third-place PCs.
The Tories didn't run a candidate against Holt.
"It's interesting to see that in New Brunswick, for francophones at this moment, the second party is not the Conservatives, it's the Greens," says Roger Ouellette, a political scientist at the University of Moncton.
The Green vote wasn't enough to win in three traditionally Liberal strongholds.
But if the party's support improves at the same rate in ridings that are less reliably Liberal, it could make it difficult for Holt to become premier in 2024.
Ouellette pointed out that the Greens have also been competitive in the mostly anglophone southern part of the province.
"We will see in the next election if the Greens stay in touch with voters and are able to have good candidates like this time and obtain some votes," Ouellette said.
In Dieppe, Liberal Richard Losier scooped up more than two-thirds of the vote. (Michelle LeBlanc/Radio-Canada)
"Maybe it will split the vote and it will be an advantage for the Conservatives."
In that sense, Monday's results represent no change to the existing dynamic in New Brunswick politics.
A best-ever for the Greens still isn't a breakthrough. Wins are wins: Holt will be in the legislature and Brideau won't. There'll be no crashing that party.
Holt argued the approach that led to her victory can be applied province-wide.
"People have lost faith in politics and government. So giving them hope that it can change is hard work that we need to do everywhere, because I don't think any vote can be taken for granted," she said Monday night.
Capturing traditional Liberal ridings, however, is a lot easier than building party support in areas where the PCs remain strong.
Sure, the Tories remain equally dead on arrival in most francophone areas — something Higgs blamed on the Liberals, telling reporters his opponents benefit from language divisions.
"I feel that we see that politically in the province, where there's certainly a value for the Liberals to maintain a political divide along linguistic lines," he said.
Higgs said given the history of the ridings, "the probability is low" that his party would win them anytime soon.
But he has shown in two straight elections that he doesn't need to do well in those places to win.
If Monday's results represent a political status quo, frozen in place — the Liberals with a Green problem, and the Greens with a Liberal problem — that's good news for the leader, and the party, already in power.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
one cannot be bemused and confused.
The history of those ridings actually show that with a good leader and good candidates the PC’s can and have won those ridings.
But the premier would have to admit he’s not a leader for the citizens of those ridings, so it’s much easier to blame the liberals for "political linguistic divide" which is something he’s been assiduously working at ever since he got to be premier.
Also, he calls the PC party "his party", it’s not, it’s the members party that he happens to be the elected leader of, he can be replaced, the sooner the better.
Reply to Al Clark
Methinks everybody knows he is far too big for that job N'esy Pas?
Reply to Michael Cain
A "Gallant type" government during the same period would have added another billion or so to the debt, and we'd still be no better off.
Voters will eventually decide if they want responsible government or more bloated liberal spending.
BTW, he probably improved his "deflecting off topic" by watching Trudeau.
Reply to Don Corey
Reply to David Amos
Reply to Michael Cain
Is there a link for that?
Reply to Michael Cain
Reply to Michael Cain
As to history, your version is obviously biased in the left leaning direction, so we'll just leave it at that. Mine tends to be more open minded.
Any country burdened in debt is doing nothing for the health of its citizens.
A prosperous/thriving economy under Conservatives always results in a positive environment for employers to build and invest, and create more good paying jobs so the middle class will be able to afford to live. The car will not have to be sold to pay the mortgage because interest rates won't be going up as a result of government-created inflationary pressures.
People will indeed thrive and be healthy doing so
Reply to Bob Smith
previous sentence:
"The Tories didn't run a candidate against Holt."
Reply to Al Clark
Reply to Don Corey
So Higgy is the lesser of two evil politicians?
Your preference would appear to be for wasteful/bloated spending and huge deficits.
It's the easy way to go for politicians, and gets lots of votes from those who love the liberal focus on socialism and income redistribution.
It's not "free money" though, and taxpayers ultimately pay the price.
You can only kick the can so far down the road before the time comes for payback.
Reply to Don Corey
Higgs warned of 'too much power in premier's office' in 2018. His 2023 critics agree
Former ministers express common concern about power wielded by premier
"Today there is too much power in the premier's office," he wrote in a personal letter to voters during the 2018 election campaign.
"The Premier's office ends up making all the decisions. The voices of citizens and elected officials are not allowed to be as strong as they could and should be. I want to be the Premier who says 'No we don't do it that way anymore.'"
Five years later, with his government roiled by a series of cabinet resignations and firings and mounting accusations of his own tendency toward centralized rule, Higgs still maintains he is a leader who values different points of view and is open to learning from those who do not agree with him.
Former
social development minister Dorothy Shephard resigned from cabinet
three weeks ago citing a lack of independence to run her department and a
refusal by Premier Higgs to listen to views other than his own. (Shane Magee/CBC)
"I'm never happy when someone quits and walks away because the way we find balance — and the way we respect each other's views in doing so — is how we improve democracy," Higgs told CBC News last week.
But a growing list of government MLAs and ex-ministers claim that is not the Blaine Higgs they know.
Simmering frustration
Three weeks ago, former social development minister Dorothy Shephard resigned from cabinet in opposition to the government changing Policy 713, which provides guidance for the treatment of LGBTQ students in schools.
In interviews about the decision, Shephard expressed specific concerns about the policy change but also a long simmering frustration about Higgs making decisions on his own and bypassing ministers by running departments directly from his office.
"There's no conversation with the premier's office. It's all a direct line from the premier's office to the deputy minister," she said.
Two
MLAs who quit Higgs’s cabinet in the past, Dominic Cardy and Robert
Gauvin, watch as the premier speaks to media after Dorothy Shephard's
resignation. (Jacques Poitras/CBC)
The criticism was nearly identical to one made nine months ago by former education minister Dominic Cardy in his resignation letter from cabinet.
Cardy claimed major government policy shifts, such as the ill-fated attempt to overhaul French immersion in schools or to disband elected representation on health boards, were increasingly personal decisions being made directly by the premier.
"Your order to abolish the democratically elected Regional Health Authorities without informing Cabinet represents a steady consolidation of power in your own hands," Cardy wrote in the letter.
The New Brunswick Progressive Conservative party had told voters in 2018 that with Higgs as leader it would delegate power and "move decisions closer to communities," but Cardy described the opposite happening, especially, he said, after the party went from a minority to a majority government in 2020.
At the time, Cardy's letter was viewed as incendiary and disloyal. It triggered his expulsion from the government caucus and forced him to sit in the legislature as an independent.
But in the last month, a number of Cardy's former cabinet colleagues have been making nearly identical points as they either resigned, like he did, or were fired by Higgs.
'More about him getting his own way'
Trevor Holder, the most senior government MLA in the New Brunswick legislature, gave up his cabinet position two weeks ago and, like Cardy and Shephard before him, cited a concentration of power and decision-making in the hands of one.
"Under the leadership of Premier Higgs caucus has been less about consensus and more about him getting his own way," wrote Holder in an open letter explaining his departure.
New
Brunswick's most senior Progressive Conservative MLA, Trevor Holder,
resigned from cabinet two weeks ago claiming Premier Higgs has abandoned
consensus in favour of 'getting his own way.' (Jacques Poitras/CBC)
Jeff Carr was fired by Higgs as transportation minister last week following his public opposition to the changes to Policy 713 regarding the treatment of LGBTQ students. He issued his own letter describing a "continuous lack of transparency and consultation" under the premier.
Carr said Higgs had largely abandoned consultation after winning a majority government and adopted a "my way or the highway" position on issues like French immersion changes that did not "include others in decision-making."
In a remark aimed personally at Higgs, Carr also endorsed the criticisms other departing cabinet ministers were levelling about the premier not valuing opinions different from his own.
"Thank you … for removing me from a situation that I feel I can no longer contribute to as some of my colleagues have previously described," he wrote in a publicly released letter.
Lori Turnbull, the director of the school of public administration at Dalhousie University, told Information Morning on Monday that it is not unusual for premiers or prime ministers in parliamentary systems to be accused of wielding too much power.
Former
transportation minister Jeff Carr and local government minister Daniel
Allain were fired from cabinet last week for voting for an opposition
motion to require more study of a school policy change affecting LGBTQ
students. Carr said Premier Higgs has adopted a 'my way or the highway'
attitude on certain issues since winning a majority government. (CBC)
But she said what is happening in New Brunswick appears to be something beyond those standard complaints.
"This is not just a Blaine Higgs thing," said Turnbull. "However, it seems like this particular situation has gone too far for some of the people around him."
Higgs no longer references his 2018 commitment to voters to curtail unilateral decision-making in the premier's office, but he does acknowledge some blame for internal problems in his government and said he "has to be part of the solution."
However, last week he also said he finds some of the complaints about him "a bit over dramatic" and appeared to misstate or misunderstand that the concerns ex-ministers express about him cover multiple policies that stretch back several months.
Lori
Turnbull is an associate professor of political science at Dalhousie
University and director of the school of public administration. She said
complaints of premiers exercising too much power are common but what is
happening in New Brunswick is on a different level. (CBC)
Instead he views it as a recent problem.
"It really kind of started with the policy around 713," he said.
And on that matter, although Higgs said he hopes he and dissatisfied MLAs "will find paths together" on Policy 713, he also says he expects the solution will not involve compromise, but rather their position bending to fit his.
"I think the public are very much behind what we're doing, and I think that will play a big role in everyone's riding as they speak to members and their constituents and say 'OK well, you know, I may have a different view but I understand I am here to represent my constituents," said Higgs.
"I feel that we're feeling that broad-based support throughout the province and I'm hopeful that will carry over into caucus."
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Guess who wrote this
"We are witnessing nothing more than “politics as usual.”
Premier Higgs is making a strategic political move. Minister Austin, oddly enough, is now a part of a secret, “behind closed doors” review committee such as he specifically railed and campaigned against – but it’s a significant feather in his political cap. Susan Holt is looking to establish herself as the Leader of the Liberals, a party strongly dependent on the Francophone vote. The SANB has never taken a cooperative or collaborative approach to anything – their strategy has always been to demand, intimidate, threaten, and sue.
So yes, it’s business as usual.
Furthermore, it’s a huge, controversial move than takes the focus away from healthcare, affordable housing, French Immersion, and tax cuts for the wealthy.
Don’t let yourself be sidetracked from what is important. The circus is only in town for a short time before it moves on, and the next amusement venture arrives."
It's clear that Higg's and Party don't want to address the actual crisis facing New Brunswickers, instead choosing the DeSantis political policy of a culture War on the LGBTQ+, their allies, and Progressives.
After all New Brunswick biggest issue is a pronoun of the students choice, and not the failure in Education & Healthcare that Higg's Progressive? Conservative Party, are administrating..is it really?
I thought it was the Finances, persons not receiving life saving care in Hospitals, ER's, or how the Renewable, and non-renewable resources are administered?
How about New Brunswick Power?
Higg's has bogged his Government in the mud of chosen culture War, with absolutely no substantiation, or evidence for doing so, beyond distraction.
If Children are the ones to keep safe, why does Higg's and the PC's choose to endanger them with changes to a policy that is for the Children's safety?
From outsider to insider: Cabinet minister Kris Austin on the year he went mainstream
People’s Alliance founder turned PC minister says his goals and strategy have not changed
Jacques Poitras · CBC News · Posted: Dec 06, 2022 6:00 AM AST
Now Higg's, is Premier with a Majority, alleges Policy 713, which was for the safety of the children, needs to be fixed, so that the safety of the children is removed.
The excuse for such, has not been shown to be valid, or have standing on the safety of children, in fact Higg's autocratic actions on such, are now going to cost children their safety, Educators their trust, and the New Brunswick treasury the cost of losing law suits to the children with standing that Higg's change in policy is endangering...solely to adopt the US Republican War on conflating LGBTQ+ issues, their allies, and even progressives.
Based on the falsehood that they are all child predators based solely on moral panic, because no such evidence exists.
Educators trust, Childrens Trust & Safety is being replaced with a Political Culture War, of distraction, instead of implementing the solutions for the crisis facing the people today, that only Government can address.
It surprised me the other week when mum said that if she had kids in school today, she'd consider pulling them out and home schooling. My personal sense is that some of the least likely people to question our institutions are now begging to do so.
Rogers tv
153K subscribers
3,876 views Sep 15, 2018
The Telegraph-Journal and Rogers tv presents the 2018 New Brunswick provincial election leaders debate, featuring Jennifer McKenzie, Brian Gallant, Kris Austin, David Coon, Blaine Higgs and Gerald Bourque.
2018 New Brunswick Provincial Election Leaders Debate
Fredericton is Dead ... Long Live Fredericton
NDP gets help from democracy expert
An international expert on democracy has flown all the way from Egypt to help NDP candidate John Carty campaign in Fredericton.
Dominic Cardy is with a group called The National Democratic Institute. Its members include such people as former U.S. President Jimmy Carter. The group's mission is to teach democratic values and spread democracy around the world.
Cardy has taught about democracy in Algeria, Bangladesh, and Cambodia during the past few years. When he heard his friend John Carty was running for office back in his home town of Fredericton, he hopped on a plane.
"It was a strange experience," Cardy said. "One evening I was watching the sun go down over the pyramids, and the next evening watched it go down over Fredericton airport as I came into land."
Cardy is no relation to the NDP candidate. But he loves elections and loves getting people pumped up about democracy.
Carty the candidate is running against federal Indian Affairs Minister Andy Scott, Conservative Pat Lynch, Green candidate Philip Duchastel and independent David Amos. The riding has sent Scott to Ottawa for the last four elections, despite the best efforts of the other parties.
Cardy says he doesn't care how tough the race his – he just wants people to participate in the process. "People have forgotten how incredibly precious these gifts that our ancestors fought for are and were just giving them away. It makes me furious when I talk to people and people just say 'ah there's no point in voting.'"
After election day, Dominic Cardy is flying back home to his wife in Kathmandu, Nepal. He hopes to leave behind a new Member of Parliament for Fredericton, his friend John Carty for the NDP.
Gerald Bourque, Leader, KISS Party NB
Blaine Higgs - Voice of the Province - February 2, 2017
Fredericton North
| June 09, 2003 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Name | Party | Standing | # Votes | ||
| Burke, Thomas J. | L | Won | 4163 | ||
| Forbes, Peter | PC | Lost | 3211 | ||
| Atchison, Dennis | NDP/NPD | Lost | 1418 | ||
Fredericton-Silverwood
| September 18, 2006 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Name | Party | Standing | # Votes | ||
| Miles, Rick | L | Won | 3226 | ||
| Green, Brad | PC | Lost | 2869 | ||
| Atchison, Dennis | NDP/NPD | Lost | 813 | ||
New Brunswick NDP meet to elect new leader
The province's NDP will pick a new leader this weekend in Moncton and begin the process of rebuilding the party after dismal election results in 2006.
Communications specialist Dennis Atchison, 51, and former Catholic priest Roger Duguay, 44, will have their names on the ballot. Both men ran unsuccessfully in last year's provincial election.
Allison Brewer stepped down as leader when the party garnered just five per cent of the popular vote in the election. She said she couldn't continue in an unpaid position afterthe party didn't earn any seats in the legislature.
Of the 1,000 eligible voters, only 100 party members are expected to show up in person to vote on Saturday. With a one-member, one-vote system, many delegates have already mailed in their ballots to party headquarters, said Nan Luke, convention co-chair.
Unless the party is able to raise money and boost its profile in the province, it will continue to have difficulty electing members to the legislature, said Don Desserud, a political science professor at the University of New Brunswick.
It will become the responsibility of the new leader to rebuild the party from the ground up, said Desserud.
"It's incredibly difficult to do that unless you've got a dynamic leader that people will want to be with and want to meet and want to come out and see, so they have to do something that's going to be able to capture the imagination of the province," said Desserud.
"It's not so important you go into it well-known, but you'd better come out of this convention with some kind of a profile."
Both of the candidates have a strong background in communicating with the public, said interim leader Pat Hanratty.
"They realize that communication is vital, and also that the party does, and that they're going to have to step up the leader's schedule," Hanratty said.
According to the leadership candidate Atchison, the NDP needs to overcome internal resistance to trying new things and use the next three years to show voters that the party is a viable political option.
Meanwhile, Duguay has said the next leader must concentrate on raising money and restoring inactive riding associations.
With files from the Canadian Press
When Blaine Higgs sat down with the NDP dude Dennis Atchison years ago He should have asked Is CBC NB Broken then
Moore, Rob - M.P.<Rob.Moore@parl.gc.ca> | Mon, Jul 3, 2023 at 7:10 PM |
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https://www.youtube.com/watch? Blaine Higgs - Voice of the Province - February 2, 2017 Rogers tv153K subscribers 141 views Feb 3, 2017 Opposition Leader Blaine Higgs sits down with Dennis Atchison to discuss the State of the Province Address, the 2017 Ice Storm, and New Brunswick's future. https://davidraymondamos3. Saturday, 1 July 2023 When Blaine Higgs sat down with the NDP dude Dennis Atchison years ago He should have asked Is CBC NB Broken then https://www.youtube.com/watch? Is CBC NB Broken? The Dennis Report 547 subscribers 149 views Apr 26, 2023 FREDERICTON CBC leaves out important details in their coverage of recent by-elections in New Brunswick. 7 Comments David Amos @davidamos7114 You NEVER respond to me David Amos @davidamos7114 https://davidraymondamos3. https://www.cbc.ca/news/ Wins are wins for N.B. Liberals, but Greens celebrate too Monday’s byelection results preserve the political status quo. That could be good news for PC government Jacques Poitras · CBC News · Posted: Apr 25, 2023 2:53 PM ADT A woman left, smiling, and facing a man, right, who is looking down at her. Green candidate Serge Brideau stopped in to the byelection victory party to congratulate Liberal leader Susan Holt on her win. (Jacques Poitras/CBC) After most Liberals had drifted away from their byelection victory party at a downtown Bathurst pub Monday night, the event took a surprising turn. Defeated Green candidate Serge Brideau arrived with a small group of his campaign workers. Brideau had stopped in earlier to congratulate Liberal leader Susan Holt on beating him in Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-St. Isidore. For his second appearance, he brought his guitar. Soon he was performing Folsom Prison Blues by Johnny Cash and songs by his own folk-rock band, Les Hôtesses d'Hilaire. A man, left, plays guitar. Two women, one wearing white and the other in black, stand to the side and watch. Brideau performs at the Liberal byelection victory party at a downtown Bathurst pub Monday night while Holt supporter Stephanie Tomlinson, in white, and Holt's chief of staff Alaina Lockhart stand by and watch. (Jacques Poitras/CBC) The remaining Liberals, including Holt's chief of staff Alaina Lockhart and former Bathurst MLA Brian Kenny, seemed alternately bemused and confused as their celebration started to look more like a Green hoedown. Not a bad metaphor for Monday's byelection results, come to think of it. As expected, the Liberals swept the three races, in Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-St. Isidore, Restigouche-Chaleur and Dieppe. All three had been Liberal before. More importantly, Holt got into the legislature, allowing her to go toe-to-toe in debates with Premier Blaine Higgs, whom she hopes to defeat in next year's provincial election. But the Greens nonetheless squeezed their way into the political frame — or at least avoided being squeezed out. Brideau got 35.4 per cent of the vote against Holt, almost tripling the Green share in the riding last time. "I gained a lot and I'm back in 2024, for sure," he said. A split photo of a woman, left, smiling and a man, right, smiling. In Restigouche-Chaleur, Green candidate Rachel Boudreau got more than 30 per cent of the vote, second to winner Marco LeBlanc. (Serge Bouchard/Radio-Canada) In Restigouche-Chaleur, Green candidate Rachel Boudreau, a former mayor, got 31.6 per cent of the vote, placing second to winner Marco LeBlanc. Progressive Conservative Anne Bard-Lavigne trailed with 15.8 per cent. And in Dieppe, where Liberal Richard Losier scooped up more than two-thirds of the vote, the Greens had 18.8 per cent, compared to a dismal 8.6 per cent for the third-place PCs. The Tories didn't run a candidate against Holt. "It's interesting to see that in New Brunswick, for francophones at this moment, the second party is not the Conservatives, it's the Greens," says Roger Ouellette, a political scientist at the University of Moncton. The Green vote wasn't enough to win in three traditionally Liberal strongholds. Susan Holt wins legislature seat in Liberal byelection sweep But if the party's support improves at the same rate in ridings that are less reliably Liberal, it could make it difficult for Holt to become premier in 2024. Ouellette pointed out that the Greens have also been competitive in the mostly anglophone southern part of the province. "We will see in the next election if the Greens stay in touch with voters and are able to have good candidates like this time and obtain some votes," Ouellette said. A man wearing a suit stands at a podium with a sign on the front that says "Richard Losier." These signs are also plastered on the wall behind him. A crowd of people sit in front of the podium. In Dieppe, Liberal Richard Losier scooped up more than two-thirds of the vote. (Michelle LeBlanc/Radio-Canada) "Maybe it will split the vote and it will be an advantage for the Conservatives." In that sense, Monday's results represent no change to the existing dynamic in New Brunswick politics. A best-ever for the Greens still isn't a breakthrough. Wins are wins: Holt will be in the legislature and Brideau won't. There'll be no crashing that party. Holt argued the approach that led to her victory can be applied province-wide. "People have lost faith in politics and government. So giving them hope that it can change is hard work that we need to do everywhere, because I don't think any vote can be taken for granted," she said Monday night. Capturing traditional Liberal ridings, however, is a lot easier than building party support in areas where the PCs remain strong. Sure, the Tories remain equally dead on arrival in most francophone areas — something Higgs blamed on the Liberals, telling reporters his opponents benefit from language divisions. "I feel that we see that politically in the province, where there's certainly a value for the Liberals to maintain a political divide along linguistic lines," he said. Higgs said given the history of the ridings, "the probability is low" that his party would win them anytime soon. But he has shown in two straight elections that he doesn't need to do well in those places to win. If Monday's results represent a political status quo, frozen in place — the Liberals with a Green problem, and the Greens with a Liberal problem — that's good news for the leader, and the party, already in power. ABOUT THE AUTHOR Jacques Poitras Provincial Affairs reporter Jacques Poitras has been CBC's provincial affairs reporter in New Brunswick since 2000. He grew up in Moncton and covered Parliament in Ottawa for the New Brunswick Telegraph-Journal. He has reported on every New Brunswick election since 1995 and won awards from the Radio Television Digital News Association, the National Newspaper Awards and Amnesty International. He is also the author of five non-fiction books about New Brunswick politics and history. CBC's Journalistic Standards and Practices 60 Comments David Amos Content Deactivated Trust that Higgy knows why I don't feel sorry for the Greens today David Amos Can't anyone see this for what it is? David Amos Reply to David Amos "Monday’s byelection results preserve the political status quo. That could be good news for PC government" Toby Tolly Reply to David Amos a green auditioning for the red? Toby Tolly Jaques one cannot be bemused and confused. Marcel Belanger "Higgs said given the history of the ridings, "the probability is low" that his party would win them anytime soon.’’ The history of those ridings actually show that with a good leader and good candidates the PC’s can and have won those ridings. But the premier would have to admit he’s not a leader for the citizens of those ridings, so it’s much easier to blame the liberals for "political linguistic divide" which is something he’s been assiduously working at ever since he got to be premier. Also, he calls the PC party "his party", it’s not, it’s the members party that he happens to be the elected leader of, he can be replaced, the sooner the better. Lou Bell Reply to Marcel Belanger Liberals realized after their last defeat they have no chance of defeating Higgs in an election , and went so far as to present a petition to the Conservatives to have a leadership convention in an attempt to oust Higgs !! Hard to believe this to be true but it is ! Can't stop laughing at what the Liberals will try ! Hilarious ! Lou Bell Reply to Marcel Belanger The last Liberal leader who was Premier hightailed it to Ottawa the morning after their defeat once he realized the undisclosed Phonie Games plan was about to be revealed to Anglophne NBers ! Lou Bell Reply to Marcel Belanger Anglophones learned very quickly once the undisclosed " Phonie Games " plan was revealed that the SANB Liberals in no way represented them ! Premier Higgs was certainly correct in his assessment ! Toby Tolly sad the % of people that didn't vote Roland Godin Reply to Toby Tolly Marketing party political brands may not be the way foreword to interest responsible voters. David Amos Reply to Toby Tolly Par for the course Al Clark No velcro in that suit, Serge? ;-) David Amos Reply to Al Clark Tut Tut Tut Methinks everybody knows he is far too big for that job N'esy Pas? Al Clark Reply to David Amos I was referring to his appearance at an awards show ;-) Michael Cain You can't debate with Higgs, he will always bully and deflect off topic. Don Corey Reply to Michael Cain Perhaps, but his government has reduced the province's debt by 2.3 BILLION over the past 3 years. That's the best fiscal record, by far, of any province in the country. A "Gallant type" government during the same period would have added another billion or so to the debt, and we'd still be no better off. Voters will eventually decide if they want responsible government or more bloated liberal spending. BTW, he probably improved his "deflecting off topic" by watching Trudeau. David Amos Reply to Don Corey Higgy could never bully me Michael Cain Reply to Don Corey Reduced the debt on the backs of the citizens of New Brunswick, taking fed pandemic money (tax payers' money) and using it as surplus, literally destroying positive relationships, union busting, proposing insane immersion education, making plans that nobody knows anything about, bullying his own cabinet, etc. the worst leader the PC party ever had to get rid of. Yes, the citizens will be glad to see Higgs gone, as well as his own members. Don Corey Reply to David Amos I concur, absolutely. Don Corey Reply to Michael Cain Pure nonsense. The majority of voters are able to recognize and fully acknowledge this province's need for excellent fiscal management (which had disappeared for far too long). Lou Bell Content Deactivated Reply to Michael Cain Libeals certainly can't ! The last leader they had even elected in a riding before last night was over 7 years ago ! David Amos Content Deactivated Reply to Don Corey Methinks little Lou and Mr Cain deserve each other N'esy Pas? Did you notice anything this morning? David Amos Content Deactivated Reply to Don Corey Did you notice anything this morning? Michael Cain Reply to Don Corey Austerity is not excellent fiscal management. Invest in the citizens and the return is tenfold. Jack Bell Reply to Michael Cain "Invest in the citizens and the return is tenfold." Is there a link for that? Don Corey Reply to Michael Cain Is doesn't surprise me that you would fail to grasp the significance of the huge reduction in our province's debt, let alone the other key accomplishments of this government. The benefits of debt reduction alone will indeed inevitably result in positive benefits for everyone (unlike more debt, and more taxes this and future generations will pay for wasteful spending). Michael Cain Reply to Don Corey Historically, Canadians have always benefited the most from Liberal governments, Trickle own economics keeps people in poverty and under the thumb of an autocratic government. Provide the people with the resources they need to thrive and prosper, and the returns are more than enough to maintain and enhance debt reduction. A healthy population is a productive population. Selling the car to pay down the mortgage makes no sense if you can't get to the job to make money and feed the family. Economics 101 Michael Cain Reply to Jack Bell Do you need one? Don Corey Reply to Michael Cain Speaking of economics, it's never been one of your strong points huh. As to history, your version is obviously biased in the left leaning direction, so we'll just leave it at that. Mine tends to be more open minded. Any country burdened in debt is doing nothing for the health of its citizens. A prosperous/thriving economy under Conservatives always results in a positive environment for employers to build and invest, and create more good paying jobs so the middle class will be able to afford to live. The car will not have to be sold to pay the mortgage because interest rates won't be going up as a result of government-created inflationary pressures. People will indeed thrive and be healthy doing so Michael Cain Reply to Don Corey Surprise surpluses are hardly excellent fiscal management. The surpluses were on the backs of the citizens, their inflated taxes on fuel and goods and services, the rip off of our carbon rebates, unspent federal pandemic money, federal transfers, etc. A Con government is all con. Michael Cain Reply to Jack Bell How about give a man the seeds to grow food and feed thousands? Ben Haroldson Looks like Serge is a class act David Amos Content Deactivated Reply to Ben Haroldson Dream on Michael Collins Maybe some francophones don't feel truly represented by the SANB. Al Clark Reply to Michael Collins Most. Just like most nbers have no time for cor. David Amos Reply to Michael Collins Methinks a lot don't and never did N'esy Pas? Marc Bourque Reply to Michael Collins Iam francophone and dont follow the radicals at the SANB.. Don Corey Reply to David Amos Absolutely right. They were a fringe party that didn't take long to disintegrate. Matt Steele Content Deactivated I suspect that Premier Higgs loves that his plan has come together , and Susan Holt has finally got a seat in the Legislature . Now we will see what Susan Holt is really about as sniping from the sidelines has been easy to do when all she wants to do is pander to special interest groups , and hasn't had to present any real ideas other than to tax and spend like her mentor , Brian Gallant , did . Things are about to get amusing , and somewhat interesting as we watch Gallant 2.0 in action . Ben Haroldson Reply to Matt Steele We'll find out all about his plan when he gets turfed next year, but he'll probably quit before that happens like Mckenna did. Bob Smith Reply to Ben Haroldson It's a stretch to say Holt will lead the Liberals back into power. She's new to being a politician in the public eye as was Vickers and we know how Vickers did as leader. David Amos Reply to Bob Smith YUp David Amos Content Deactivated Reply to Ben Haroldson I must say that it was pleasant to see a certain somebody's words go "Poof" Samual Johnston "It's interesting to see that in New Brunswick, for francophones at this moment, the second party is not the Conservatives, it's the Greens," says Roger Ouellette, a political scientist at the University of Moncton." previous sentence: "The Tories didn't run a candidate against Holt." Douglas James Reply to Samual Johnston They were talking about all 3 ridings where there were by-elections. Samual Johnston Reply to Douglas James Were they? Does it really make any more sense even if he was? Anyone red could have won in those ridings. Al Clark Reply to Samual Johnston Sentence before that, there were THREE byelections. David Amos Reply to Al Clark You know as well as I that everything in heaven and hell is done in threes Samual Johnston Reply to Al Clark Agreed in a historically heavily liberal region Archara Goldehere I shifted to Susan's side. I'm very happy for her. Congratulations to the winner's. Higgs hasn't even tried to help the people of NB. Higgs will not be around next time . Now to look at the LPC as they are doing lots for the people. Stay safe Micheal Grey Reply to Archara Goldehere Don't even Libs to help either. If you want change you need to vote Green. Archara Goldehere Reply to Micheal Grey I looked at the Green and made my choice. We all get a vote unless you didn't bother to vote. I just no my vote will not go to the conservatives . Have a great day. Micheal Grey Reply to Archara Goldehere I just want change. Hope to see it in my lifetime! God bless. Archara Goldehere Reply to Micheal Grey We will see it with Susan and you don't need to disrespect a voted in person. Give her a chance as the people did. I left the PC party because of the hateful talk and here you are. :( Maybe I made the best choice. Have a great day. Don Corey Reply to Archara Goldehere The NB Liberal party is no different from the Ottawa gang, with their bloated spending, record deficits and an ongoing list of failures. Brian Gallant's government was the worst in our history, and the latest version will not be provided with the opportunity to pull a repeat. The Liberals can dream and hope....that's about it. David Amos Reply to Don Corey Methinks many COR Party fans would agree that McKenna's government was the worst N'esy Pas? Don Corey Reply to David Amos I concur. Archara Goldehere Reply to Don Corey Well I'm going to vote for LPC and Brian was over what 10 years ago. But the PC's will never recover from Higgs. You think they are a failure but really the PC-CPC-CPP are the failure . I no this as I was PC. And you think what, the liberals wont get in and that my friend is your mistake just like Higgs thinks and doesn't bother to help NBwer's . It will be your failure. And Higgs is way worse then Brian ever was. Just an FYI from an ex-PCer. David Amos Content Deactivated Reply to Archara Goldehere "Higgs is way worse then Brian ever was" So Higgy is the lesser of two evil politicians? Don Corey Reply to Archara Goldehere We obviously disagree. Your preference would appear to be for wasteful/bloated spending and huge deficits. It's the easy way to go for politicians, and gets lots of votes from those who love the liberal focus on socialism and income redistribution. It's not "free money" though, and taxpayers ultimately pay the price. You can only kick the can so far down the road before the time comes for payback. G. Timothy Walton Or one could interpret this as many PC voters would rather shift to the Greens than to the Liberals if they feel the need to swing their vote away from Higgs. Don Corey Reply to G. Timothy Walton One could also interpret this as Liberal wins in 3 of their strongholds, and most PC voters didn't waste their time voting. It's obvious in the Bathurst riding that former Liberal votes went to the Greens. David Amos Reply to Don Corey C'est Vrai Kyle Woodman This is all very speculative Jacques. David Amos Content Deactivated Reply to Kyle Woodman Should we speculate as to why about 25 comments posted by little Lou evaporated all at once? | |
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