Pre-election New Brunswick budget stays the course on taxes, health spending
After 4 larger-than-expected surpluses, finance minister warns again that big revenues may not last
The Higgs government has delivered a stand-pat provincial budget that avoids new spending measures, tax cuts or other gimmicks that might curry favour with voters ahead of the election this fall.
Finance Minister Ernie Steeves has opted to stay the course rather than slash taxes or throw huge new sums of money at the health-care system.
That leaves him projecting another small surplus for 2024-25 of just $41 million.
Steeves has vastly underestimated the surplus in each of the last four years, but this year he is again repeating his warning that higher-than-expected revenue for the government is bound to come to an end.
"Revenue is not anticipated to continue the pace of growth seen in recent years, and maintaining spending growth at current levels will not be sustainable over the longer term," he said in his budget speech delivered in the legislature.
"The fiscal plan I have outlined today reflects the needs of a growing province, recognizes the volatile times we find ourselves in, and considers the need to remain fiscally responsible over the longer term."
Steeves
and Premier Blaine Higgs have bragged that reducing the debt has also
reduced the amount the province must spend on servicing interest charges
on the debt. (Radio-Canada)
Notably, the health budget is nudging up by only $1.6 million over the province's revised spending figure this year.
That is despite several increases including:
- $70 million more for regional health authorities.
- $22.9 million for new technologies, including improved electronic medical records and other new systems and tools.
- $20 million to continue expanding collaborative primary-care centres.
Steeves said those new items are offset by one-time costs this year that won't repeat in the coming year, including the large amounts paid to private companies providing travel nurses to fill staffing gaps.
The new amounts are still far from the $600 million in new spending recently demanded by the New Brunswick Medical Society and the New Brunswick Nurses Union.
They were looking for $70 million for primary care clinics, an amount they said would be enough for 50 such centres around the province.
Medical society president Dr. Paula Keating said the organization was "somewhat disappointed" because it's not clear how many clinics the $20 million will create.
Opposition leaders weigh in
Opposition party leaders said the money falls short of what's needed.
Liberal Leader Susan Holt said there was nothing in the budget that "transforms" the system.
"It sounds to me like they're moving money around without having put new money into the system," she said.
Green Leader David Coon called it "really quite shocking, given the crisis that we face."
Steeves told reporters at a news conference that there could be "considerable" additional spending when the province negotiates a new wage contract with nurses in the coming months.
Another stay-the-course element was a repeated commitment — first made in October 2022 — to spend $102 million building or upgrading 380 public housing units.
Steeves said work on "nearly" half of those units will start this year, indicating little to no work has been done in the 17 months since the initial announcement.
The budget includes $68.9 million for the New Brunswick Housing Corporation, a 54.1 per cent increase over the current year.
It also includes new spending in education, such as $18.6 million to help school districts cope with enrolment growth and $24.3 million for rising energy and transportation costs.
There's also $7.8 million to try to improve literacy and numeracy scores, which have been dropping.
No tax cuts — for now
The minister underlined several of the tax cuts and affordability benefits the government has announced in the last year, but his budget included no new measures aimed at helping New Brunswickers cope with the cost of living.
Asked if new tax cuts could be announced before the election campaign, Steeves did not answer directly but said he was speaking to his staff recently about the possibility of more reductions in the future.
"If we do a tax cut announcement, it won't be because of an election," he said. "It'll be because it's right for New Brunswick. We don't have a timeframe for it yet. … We've started talking about it. We think it's a good idea."
He repeatedly encouraged New Brunswickers with household incomes of less than $70,000 a year to apply for a previously announced $300 workers benefit.
Missed tax relief: taxpayer federation
The Canadian Taxpayers Federation applauded another balanced budget but criticized the spending increases and lack of new tax cuts.
"New Brunswickers could have gotten hundreds of millions of dollars in tax relief," said interim Atlantic director Jay Goldberg.
"Unfortunately, the spending restraint the Higgs government exercised in previous years was missing from this year's budget."
Other measures announced in the budget include:
- A new system for adjudicating child protection cases that should divert more than half of the cases from ending up in court in front of a judge.
- An increase in social assistance benefits of 3.6 per cent.
- $29.7 million for wage increases for employees working in sectors including special care homes, group homes, home support, community residences, attendant care, family support and specialized placements.
Robert MacKay of the Common Front for Social Justice said the increase in social assistance rates reflects a required hike to match inflation and isn't enough.
"That would not be going up," he said. "It's not an increase. It's treading water."
Steeves's small surplus projection — and his hesitation to spend large amounts of new money — follows four straight years of budgets that ended up wildly off-target, with much larger surpluses than forecast each year.
The most recent fiscal update projects a $247.4 million surplus by the end of the current fiscal year of 2023-24, well beyond the $40.3 million Steeves predicted last March.
That followed unexpectedly large surpluses of $400 million in 2021, $769 million in 2022 and $1.01 billion last year.
Earlier this year, Steeves blamed the missed targets on the federal government for underestimating how much income and sales tax revenue it would collect on behalf of the province.
Economist Richard Saillant, who has criticized the inaccurate forecasting in the past, said he believes this year's budget is more realistic in its estimates.
The cumulative provincial debt will increase by $315 million this year after several years of decreases. But it will continue to shrink as a percentage of the province's economic output.
Steeves and Premier Blaine Higgs have bragged that reducing the debt has also reduced the amount the province must spend on servicing interest charges on the debt.
But the higher debt forecast in the new budget means debt service costs are also forecast to increase in the coming year by $65.6 million.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
"New Brunswickers could have gotten hundreds of millions of dollars in tax relief," said interim Atlantic director Jay Goldberg.
"Unfortunately, the spending restraint the Higgs government exercised in previous years was missing from this year's budget."
Too Too Funny
Reply to Ben Brown
Although it is always a convenient excuse to cut services, particularily to prople that need them the most, while further lining pockets of the wealthy.
Its in his job description.
If the Liberals were in, it would be his job to apply the same standards to Holt and company.
Suddenly this chain is being "reviewed".
Wonder why?
the current government has put more money into healthcare, yes he maintained the previous governments commitment to increases, but he's put more new money in with conditions that actually see real value for money rather than throwing more money into the provincial black holes.
the previous government was kind enough to decide without any consultation that they would be imposing a limit of 3% or GDP whichever was higher, this after the liberals had started to reinvest after they bludgeoned healthcare with cuts to get the budget under control
blaming a single government is very myopic, looking at the bigger picture because investment takes time to materialize
No surprises in final N.B. budget before election, minister says
Ernie Steeves says tax cuts 'would certainly be in our future'
New Brunswick's finance minister says people shouldn't expect any major surprises in his final provincial budget before a scheduled election this fall.
Ernie Steeves told reporters that he won't be dangling any gimmicks designed to win votes.
"We don't generally do that in our budgets. It's a budget that is planning, showing the plan, for the future of New Brunswick," he said.
Steeves showed off printed English and French versions of his budget speech bearing the slogan "Stronger Than Ever" — the same phrase the Progressive Conservative Party put on a campaign bus it rented last fall in case of an early election call.
"The slogan works," Steeves said. "I don't know. Maybe they had it all written out ahead of time. No, they didn't. But stronger is the theme."
Tuesday's budget will lay out spending and revenue plans for the 2024-25 fiscal year, which begins April 1.
It follows four straight years of budgets that ended up wildly off-target, with much larger surpluses than forecast each year.
The most recent fiscal update projects a $247.4-million surplus by the end of the current fiscal year of 2023-24, well beyond the $40.3 million Steeves predicted last March.
That followed surpluses of $400 million in 2021, $769 million in 2022 and $1.01 billion last year.
Opposition parties have accused the Tories of lowballing their estimates to avoid pressure to spend more money.
But Steeves has blamed the federal government for inaccurate projections of sales and income revenue, which it collects on behalf of the province.
The minister said Monday there were "slight changes" coming in how the province handles Ottawa's figures, but "it'll still depend on what happens with the feds. They control that, not us."
Steeves said tax cuts "would certainly be in our future" and said there will be "significant" increases to health-care spending, though he wouldn't say if he's adding the $600 million that provincial doctors and nurses recently called for.
He will introduce the budget shortly after the legislature reconvenes at 1 p.m. Tuesday.
The election is scheduled for Oct. 21.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Yea Right
The top three for NB should be
1. Healthcare; a significant increase in spending along with a realistic, ambitious and well-communicated action plan to go with it.
2. Cost of living; reduce the provincial portion of the HST by 2%. In other words, wipe out the 2% increase in 2016, courtesy of the free spending Gallant government. This will benefit all NB'ers, and not just a select group.
3. Housing; yet another crisis thanks to the federal government, but it's time for this government to step in and take it seriously. The few crumbs thrown out to currently held Liberal ridings amount to a drop in the bucket.
Reply to Frank Blacklock
Reply to Fred Sanford
Reply to Doug kirby
Reply to David Amos
Reply to Steve Gordon
Reply to Ron parker
Reply to Fred Sanford
Many who were the recipients of the low paying , minimum wage jobs that were created by the McKenna liberals and that left them completely unprepared for retirement . " long term pain for short term gain " , and the rest of us have been paying for mit ever since .
They seem to have difficulty in getting accurate projections on revenues such as sales tax from the federal government, but that should come as no surprise. Nothing from the feds ever adds up, and they could care less.
Reply to Steve Alexander
Healthcare, on the other hand, affects everyone.
Reply to G. Timothy Walton
Reply to G. Timothy Walton
No comments:
Post a Comment