A pledge not to tolerate deficit spending an early test for incoming Holt government
Party's billion-dollar platform to make balancing budgets a tall order
Liberal Leader Susan Holt will be sworn in as New Brunswick's 35th premier on Saturday, and one of the first things she has promised to do is pay New Brunswick nurses $10,000 retention bonuses, at a cost of an estimated $74.3 million.
The money, which Holt says will be delivered before January, will be an early test of her new government's duelling commitments to spend more freely on services, but not spill any red ink while doing it.
"We committed to getting that first retention payment out this calendar year, to recognize the work that nurses have done, and to ask them to stick with us as we put in place the changes to their working conditions they have been asking for," said Holt, on election night, about her intention to keep the promise to nurses.
But Holt has also pledged her government will not run budget deficits during her entire term — a potential conflict given the party's many spending promises.
On the morning after the election, Acadia University political scientist Erin Crandall told CBC's Information Morning Fredericton that financing Holt's planned agenda, while keeping budgets balanced, will be a dilemma the new premier is likely to face early and often.
"There were some questions in the campaign around how much some of these promises are actually going to cost and whether or not it will lead to deficits," Crandall said.
"So I think it's going to be that combination of need to deliver on big items but also you have to keep a balanced budget, and that's going to be really challenging."
Those challenges are already beginning.
According to New Brunswick's Finance Department, the province already slipped into a deficit position for the current year earlier this spring, and on paper it is not clear where the $74.3 million needed for the nurses' bonuses will come from.
Prof. Gabriel Arsenault said he is not aware of any government anywhere that has been found to keep all of its election commitments, and he doubts the Holt government will be able to be any different.
"I've never seen it. I've never seen that," said Arsenault, a political science professor at the Université de Moncton.
Gabriel
Arsenault is a political science professor at the Université de
Moncton. He is setting up a system to track Susan Holt's success in
keeping her election promises. (Nicholas Steinbach/Radio-Canada)
"Theoretically, she could fulfil all of her pledges but realistically, I don't think that will happen. It just never does."
Arsenault set up a New Brunswick polimeter during the Blaine Higgs government.
Polimeters have become common in North America among political scientists to track how many promises political parties make at election time and how many of those are eventually kept.
Arsenault found the Higgs government broke 29 per cent of its election commitments, and he is now preparing to track Holt's government. He has developed a list of 73 commitments made during the election that are potentially breakable, a condition for being included in the evaluation.
Arsenault said there is a definite "tension" in the Holt government's commitment not to run a deficit as it introduces what he calls a series of bold initiatives to try and solve various health-care, education and affordability problems.
He also thinks the party has underestimated what some of its signature commitments, such as establishing a universal breakfast and pay-what-you-can lunch program in all New Brunswick public schools, will eventually cost.
"There's a lot of uncertainty concerning the cost of many pledges," said Arsenault, who added that he found a number of estimates used in the platform unconvincing.
P.E.I.
runs a school food program that the Liberals used to price out their
promise to set up a similar scheme in New Brunswick. However, the data
relied on was out of date and likely underestimated costs. (Steve Bruce/CBC)
That appears to be the case for the school food program, which is estimated to cost $101.4 million over four years in the Liberal platform. That figure is based largely on out-of-date numbers lifted from a similar program being run in Prince Edward Island.
Two years ago, the P.E.I. program was serving an average of 3,500 meals per day, which is the number the Liberals extrapolated from to make their estimate.
However, more current numbers show that last year, usage of the P.E.I. program had grown 40 per cent, to 5,000 per day, a number that suggests a similar program in New Brunswick would be significantly more popular and expensive than the incoming government is counting on.
There is a similar problem with old data used to price out another commitment to offer unpaid family caregivers of seniors a $250-per-month benefit. The party used a 2018 evaluation of how many people would access a benefit like that to price it at $102.4 million over four years.
Former
Liberal finance minister Cathy Rogers proposed to set up a benefit for
unpaid family caregivers in 2018. New Brunswick Liberals used her
six-year-old figures to estimate how much it would cost to run a similar
program in 2024, even though population numbers have changed
dramatically. (Stephen MacGillivray/Canadian Press)
However, New Brunswick now has thirty per cent more people over the age of 70 than it had in 2018, a fact likely to drive costs of that program higher, as well. In addition, a simple math error committed in pricing out the same commitment lowered its cost by a further $4 million.
"If you look at her estimates of her various pledges, you will see that it is often close to being a shot in the dark," said Arsenault.
For the moment, the incoming government is not focusing on those issues.
A spokesperson for Holt's transition team said it is too early to talk about what might happen if financial commitments made during the election start to come into conflict with the secondary commitment to avoid deficit spending.
"That is a difficult hypothetical question As we are in transition discussions with departments, it's not a question we can speak to at this time," the email said.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
"New Brunswick now has thirty per cent more people over the age of 70 than it had in 2018"
Higgy and I fit in the bracket
valmond landry
Reply to David Amos
we sure get old fast .
Dan Lee
Reply to David Amos
you 2 should start a goldwing club....vrrrr...vrrr.....
valmond landry
Reply to David Amos
theirs is a lot of people in that percentage that went out west in the fifty sixty to work and come back to retire .
David Amos
Reply to Dan Lee
You could not pay me to ride a goldwing Furthermore I would not belong to any club that would have me for a member
David Amos
Reply to valmond landry
The first time I dealt with Higgy he was 54 years old
David Amos
Reply to David Amos
and both our Mothers lived to be 100 years old
David Amos
Reply to David Amos
Higgy rides into the sunset tomorrow
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p6E_nTUf_Is
Dan Lee
Reply to David Amos
no me neither.....i lost one to a upper echelon club
Don Corey
Reply to David Amos
Good riddance.
Christine Martinez
Deficit spending is encoded in Liberal DNA. Expect the pledge of no deficits to be the first thing she'll toss out the window.
David Amos
Reply to Christine Martinez
Yup it isn't the first thing that went out the window
Steve Morningstar
This is exactly what i expected. Remove the 4.2 cent Federal clean fuel tax. Not happening. Remove Provincial tax off Power not happening (these were 'day one' promises). Already saying health care is going to take a while... meaning she has no real plan on how to fix it.. This is a complete farse.. but we should expect it from the liberals.. Like normal liberals will leave us worth off and with a deficit to boot. IMO
David Amos
Reply to Steve Morningstar
I concur
Holt will be another ONE TERM WONDER , just like Graham , Alward , and Gallant . The question is how much damage will she do to the province in that four years ; just like the current FEDERAL government has done to Canada .
Jack Bell
Reply to Matt Steele
I'm going to give her the benefit of the doubt and say she'll only add another 6 billion to our debt.
David Amos
Reply to Matt Steele
If she panders to the the city folks she could go on and and on and on
Eugene Peabody
The people in NB need help more than we need to be overly concerned about a small deficit. Our lives got worse under the Higgs reign with his surplus budgets so running a small deficit will be better for people . There is lots of sources for additional revenue with some changes in the methods and I am sure Susan will find them in consolation with many people .
Matt Steele
Reply to Eugene Peabody
Do you mean like the FEDERAL government has done over the last NINE years , and we have all seen the damage that has caused with a national debt that has doubled . .
Don Corey
Reply to Eugene Peabody
How did "our lives" get worse under Higgs? Speak for yourself, because mine got worse for only one reason, and that was the incompetent federal Liberal government that we won't have to endure much longer.
And what are these sources of additional revenue? Holt will need everything they can get their paws on. Then they'll just borrow the remainder.
Eugene Peabody
Reply to Matt Steele
The federal government has had debt for as long as I can remember and I do not worry about it . Read articles in The Economist to understand as long as it is 50% or less of the GDP over the long run and inflation ranges in the 2-3 % area it is very easily handled . The pandemic made things out of wack for awhile but it is getting back to normal now. You have to understand that running a government providing services and safety to the public cannot be run like a household budget. A MUCH bigger threat is stagflation or deflation because of a declining population which is what happened in NB during the Lord,Alward , Graham and Gallant time. And Gallant was the first premier in over a decade to have a increase in population and a surplus .
Ronald Miller
Reply to Eugene Peabody
Gallant did not have an increase in population, nor did he ever reduce our debt in any year in office. Tell me how many federal gov'ts more than doubled our debt, I can't wait to hear. Our GDP per capita is the worst among the G7 countries, it has flatlined under our current PM, flat GDP per capita leads to poverty for many. Our PM was screwing up long before the pandemic ever came along.
Robert Brannen
Reply to Ronald Miller
Population of New Brunswick, quarter three 2014, 758,657; population of New Brunswick, quarter three 2018, 770,497.
Ronald Miller
Reply to Robert Brannen
Population of NB in 2014, 754000, population in 2018, 745,000. There were a number of articles during the time that detailed our shrinking population, this is not news.
Eugene Peabody
Reply to Ronald Miller
You can ignore facts as much as you want to and that just makes your posts easier to ignore for anyone that can think for themselves .
John Lewis
Reply to Eugene Peabody
Sure... expect to get everything and let someone else pay for it later. Nice!
Robert Brannen
Reply to Ronald Miller
David Sampson
It’s one thing to balance the budget but cutting services and refusing in invest in infrastructure and services that provide healthcare or housing but going forward governments, including provincial governments, need to rein in spending until new revenues are available to pay for “ additional “ spending. It’s about intelligent BALANCING revenue/spending!
Don Corey
Content Deactivated
Reply to David Sampson
Nothing done by Liberals is intelligent.
Rosco holt
Reply to David Sampson
Some spending get some return on the money, while others don't like funneling money to a billionaire. Taxpayers get no return on investments.
Rosco holt
Reply to Don Corey
Conservatives don't fare better in that department.
Don Corey
Reply to Rosco holt
On the contrary, they most certainly do.
Mike Barkman
"Gabriel Arsenault is a political science professor at the Université de Moncton. He is setting up a system to track Susan Holt's success in keeping her election promises"
Weird how he didn't do that for Higgy...
Mike Barkman
Reply to Mike Barkman
Sorry I guess he did, seems Higgy failed miserably.
Ronald Miller
Reply to Mike Barkman
Holt will break more promises in her first year than Higgs did in 6, she is not off to a great start.
Don Corey
Reply to Mike Barkman
With Jacques Poitras' obsession for finding fault with everything done by the Higgs' government, there was no need for anyone else to bother. Such will not be the same with Holt.
Rosco holt
Reply to Ronald Miller
Higgs didn't make any promises to break.
Ronald Miller
Reply to Rosco holt
Thank you for proving the point I made above, that was easy.
David Amos
Reply to Don Corey
I agree
John Montgomery
Well, they know they could always go back to doing nothing like the conservatives.
Ronald Miller
Reply to John Montgomery
I can rattle off double digits accomplishments without blinking an eye regarding the PCs, yet the left can't even produce one from 14-18. Maybe you do not understand the meaning of the words "doing nothing".
Don Corey
Reply to John Montgomery
You've made us well aware of your love for spending and taxes. I trust that you will not be disappointed on both counts.
David Webb
Reply to Don Corey
It's easy to have a love for government spending when perhaps one does not pay a significant amount or no tax at all.
David Amos
Reply to David Webb
C'est Vrai
No comments:
Post a Comment