Wednesday, 19 September 2018

Methinks it is quite a revelation that Brian Gallant's Liberals have a wide lead in the polls among francophone New Brunswickers N'esy Pas?

Did anyone but Mean Old Me notice that even Gallant was worried about vote splitting just before polling day or the fact that CBC referred to an earlier article I had already dealt with within my blog and emails as well?

 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/new-brunswick-former-cor-mla-vote-splitting-election-1.4832078 



"Gallant talks about splits too


The PCs aren't the only party fretting about vote-splitting next Monday. Pressed by reporters Thursday about minority-government scenarios, Liberal Leader Brian Gallant appealed to Green and NDP supporters on Thursday to vote for his party.

"People should ask themselves if there is any sort of vote-splitting, are they contributing to any potential of Blaine Higgs and the Conservatives sneaking up the middle and forming government?" he said.

"Progressives in the province should ask themselves if that's what they want for the next four years."
The Liberal leader made the comment after Higgs opened the door to co-operating with the Alliance if the PCs win a minority.

Gallant said if his party forms only a minority government, it would only co-operate with parties "that share our values," saying that ruled out the PCs and the Alliance.

"We'd be ready to listen to the other parties and work with them in a majority or minority government situation," he said."



At least Mary Wilson can never claim that she did not now of my concerns N'esy Pas?




 http://davidraymondamos3.blogspot.com/2018/09/cbc-fails-again-to-talk-of-battles-of.html



---------- Original message ----------
From: Mary Wilson <votemarywilson@gmail.com>
Date: Sat, 8 Sep 2018 15:08:42 -0300
Subject: Re: Clearly Chris Collins and CBC know that other Independent
candidates are in quite a battle as well N'esy Pas Premier Gallant?
To: motomaniac333@gmail.com

Thank you for sharing this information, It has been passed on to Mary.
The Mary Wilson Campaign Team

 

  https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/new-brunswick-former-cor-mla-vote-splitting-election-1.4832078 

Former CoR MLA warns vote-splitting won't win election

'I've been through the mill. I know it doesn't work'

Mary Wilson, the Oromocto-Lincoln-Fredericton Progressive Conservative candidate, says a chart of the 2014 election shows if there'd been no vote-splitting, the PCs would have defeated the Liberals. (Jacques Poitras/CBC)
 
Max White has seen this movie before — and he says it doesn't have a happy ending for conservative-leaning rural voters fed up with the Liberals.

White, one of eight MLAs elected with the Confederation of Regions, or CoR party, in 1991, is campaigning hard for the Progressive Conservatives, warning voters that supporting the People's Alliance will mean splitting the vote and electing Liberals.

"We have to change from within … [with] a party that can win an election," he said. "That was what I learned in my four years there. So that's why I came back to the Conservative Party."

White is campaigning for Oromocto-Lincoln-Fredericton Progressive Conservative candidate Mary Wilson, one of many PC candidates warning voters not to cast ballots for the Alliance.
Twenty-seven years ago, he ran for CoR on a platform similar to the Alliance's — tackling bilingualism, shaking up the two-party system and giving angry voters a real voice.

"It didn't work," White said. "And I tell the people today, 'I've been through the mill. I know it doesn't work. I know we've got to work from within.'"

He said people motivated by a particular issue stand a better chance voting for a party that can win an election, then working inside that organization to nudge policy in the direction they want.

Polling trends have shown growing support for the Alliance, a party created in 2010, and the PCs have been warning more openly of vote splits.

Earlier this week, PC leader Blaine Higgs made a series of promises on car registrations and taxes that were similar to Alliance promises — but said only his party is in a position to implement them.

"Why would we take a chance on splitting the vote and having another four years of Brian Gallant?" he said. "Because that is the real risk for New Brunswick."

Candidate using chart to show splits


To try to head off an Alliance split, Wilson is going door-to-door armed with a chart showing the 2014 election results in four ridings where the combined Alliance-PC vote would have defeated the Liberals.

Winning those four seats would have meant a PC government.

"I can show people this chart, in black and white," she said. "The numbers don't lie."
She's also bringing White on some of her door-knocking blitzes, so that he can tell voters from experience what happens when the vote splits.

CoR won eight seats in 1991, and 21 per cent of the vote, on an anti-establishment message. But in many traditionally PC ridings, it split the vote and helped Liberals win.

Austin rejects CoR comparison


Alliance leader Kris Austin is pushing back at the vote-split scare.
"What a bunch of nonsense," Austin said in a Facebook video posted Wednesday night. "This is a lot of desperation mixed with a little bit of arrogance."

Austin disputes the idea that the Alliance would take most of its support from the PCs. He pointed out one recent poll showed his party's support growing by about the same amount that the Liberals' was dropping.

Max White, one of eight Confederation of Regions MLAs elected in 1991, said vote- splitting doesn't work. (Jacques Poitras/CBC)
 
 
The PC message "is based on people believing that someone who has traditionally voted Conservative or Liberal is going to vote a certain way somewhere else," he said.

But Wilson said her chart, and White's testimonial, is helping her.

"There were some people who were looking to go this route," she said. "But once we showed them the numbers and they understood, we won them back."

Wilson's Alliance opponent, Craig Rector, is the son of another former CoR MLA, the late Ab Rector. Craig Rector refused an interview request from CBC News.

Gallant talks about splits too


The PCs aren't the only party fretting about vote-splitting next Monday. Pressed by reporters Thursday about minority-government scenarios, Liberal Leader Brian Gallant appealed to Green and NDP supporters on Thursday to vote for his party.

"People should ask themselves if there is any sort of vote-splitting, are they contributing to any potential of Blaine Higgs and the Conservatives sneaking up the middle and forming government?" he said.

"Progressives in the province should ask themselves if that's what they want for the next four years."
The Liberal leader made the comment after Higgs opened the door to co-operating with the Alliance if the PCs win a minority.

Gallant said if his party forms only a minority government, it would only co-operate with parties "that share our values," saying that ruled out the PCs and the Alliance.

"We'd be ready to listen to the other parties and work with them in a majority or minority government situation," he said.

CoR, Alliance 'unrealistic'


CoR collapsed after two years of bitter infighting over the party leadership and the loss of all its seats in the 1995 election.

Many members who had been PC supporters before 1991 returned to the party, including White.
He now says CoR was unrealistic about its galvanizing issue — bilingualism — and the Alliance is repeating the same mistake.

"I think it's going to come back to haunt them a little bit," he said. "We cannot change a bilingual province. It's not going to happen because it's in the Constitution. They can have the idea that 'maybe if we get in, we can change it.' No. You can't change it."

Alliance can't win, White says

 

Kris Austin, People's Alliance Party leader and candidate for the Fredericton-Grand Lake riding said the vote-split scare is a bunch of nonsense. (Catherine Harrop/CBC)
 
 
White said Alliance supporters who want to change bilingual hiring practices for government jobs would accomplish more if they supported a party like the PCs that has a chance of taking power. Even Higgs, a former CoR supporter, realized that, he said.

"If you were going to completely change the structure in this province and have 25 or 28 Alliance people, then you could make changes," he said.
"But that's not going to happen. You may end up with two or three, but they're going to be a splinter group and they're not going to be able to do it."

Austin maintains that there could be a minority government and in that scenario, two or three Alliance MLAs could demand changes in return for supporting the party in power.

He also insists the changes he wants to make, such as eliminating the official languages commissioner position and dual bus systems for English and French schools, don't require changes to the Constitution.

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https://twitter.com/DavidRayAmos/with_replies




 

Replying to and 48 others
Methinks it is quite a revelation that Brian Gallant's Liberals have a wide lead in the polls among francophone New Brunswickers N'esy Pas?


http://davidraymondamos3.blogspot.com/2018/09/methinks-it-is-quite-revelation-that.html





 https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/grenier-nb-vote-efficiency-1.4753199





Why winning the most votes might not be enough for Brian Gallant's Liberals




178 Comments 
Commenting is now closed for this story.



Marc Martin 
Joseph Vacher
maybe draw the lines fairly? they are drawn on to basically give Francophone entire controll of the province


David Amos
Content disabled.
David Amos
@Joseph Vacher Methinks you underestimate the ethics and savvy of conservative French folks N'esy Pas?






Lloyd Joslin
Content disabled.
 Lloyd Joslin
Very dishonest party, millions stolen and squandered , and graham gets a 1500 dollar fine


David Amos
Content disabled.
David Amos
@Lloyd Joslin and a fine pension


Marc LeBlanc
Content disabled.
Marc LeBlanc
@David Amos Check out the lobbyist registry...any familiar names
https://www.pxw1.snb.ca/snb9000/ContentDelivery.aspx?productid=A001PLOBBYSearch&l=e

David Amos
Content disabled.
David Amos
@Marc LeBlanc There are lots of Leblancs






Greg Smith 
Greg Smith
It's high time we stop allowing the Liberal and Conservative party to think that they're the only two jockeying for power, and if we're displeased with one after 4 years, that a win for the other will be a sure thing. Stop splitting the dissent vote, support the NDP, and shock the Liberals and Conservatives back to the drawing board to regain any shred of appeal they might have once held.


Johnny Horton
Johnny Horton
@Greg Smith

NDP? In NB? Never happen.

The Greens would win long before the NDP in this province.

No, I don’t support the Greens.


David Amos
Content disabled.
David Amos
@Johnny Horton "No, I don’t support the Greens."

Pick me I am a vegetable






David Amos
David Amos
"Brian Gallant's Liberals have a wide lead in the polls among francophone New Brunswickers, but are trailing among anglophones"

Wow Methinks that is quite a revelation N'esy Pas?


Marc Martin
Marc Martin
@David Amos

Not really, they always trail with the English population before a switch, the same would have happened to the Cons if the would have won last election.






Mark Deckard 
Mark Deckard
Brian Gallant is taking the Acadian vote for granted. Proof: he's not even running radio ads on the most listened to francophone radio station in the province (which covers his riding btw). But he's running radio ads on a English rock station. Acadians need to wake up. There's more than one party to vote for. If you don't want to vote PC, vote Green.


David Amos
David Amos
@Mark Deckard "Brian Gallant is taking the Acadian vote for granted"

I agree



Paul Arseneault
Paul Arseneault
@David Amos If the Liberal party is taking the north, where I live, for granted by not running various ads, what does it say about the PC party's perception of the north by electing a leader who can not even speak the predominant language of the people?

Paul Arseneault
Paul Arseneault
@Mark Deckard If the Liberal party is taking the north, where I live, for granted by not running various ads, what does it say about the PC party's perception of the north by electing a leader who can not even speak the predominant language of the people?

David Amos
David Amos
@Paul Arseneault Methinks you are a little redundant N'esy Pas?










Dwight Williams 
Dwight Williams
It works the same way nationally.

Does it really matter if the CPC wins seats in Alberta and Saskatchewan by 60% or 65%?

Yet the same people telling you here that this doesn't matter will tell you that it does matter in other cases.


David Amos
David Amos
@Dwight Williams Methinks Harper figured out during the last election that not all Maritimers were not defeatists as they defeated his minions in every riding N'esy Pas?






Colin Seeley 
Colin Seeley
Now why would Francophone’s seem so partial to Liberalism ?

Perhaps it’s got something to do with where the money gets spent.


JJ Carrier
JJ Carrier
@Marc Martin Votes in NB are more riding by riding than most...Look at Doucett, Hache, Culbert, Maher, Godin etc etc

David Amos
David Amos
@JJ Carrier Not really




Colin Seeley 
Mario Doucet
The English language debate in Quebec proves the tides are turning on bilingualism, liberal pandering to the French won't be enough in the future to determine the outcome of provincial elections anymore.


David Amos
David Amos
@Mario Doucet Heres hoping







Colin Seeley  
Mario Doucet
87 + thousand have already decided they don't want the liberals again.


David Amos
David Amos
@Mario Doucet Methinks they decided something but I only of how one person voted and so should you N'esy Pas?


  



Dan Armitage
Mario Doucet
The Trudeau carbon tax scam has been enough to defeat liberals elsewhere.


David Amos
David Amos
@Mario Doucet YUP






Colin Seeley 
Craig O'Donnell
Sounds like it's time to start thinking about dividing this province into 2 separate ones.


David Amos
David Amos
@Craig O'Donnell Methinks its High Time we had a Constitution N'esy Pas?






 Colin Seeley 
Bernard McIntyre
Eric Grenier, with 4 other parties running in this election whom you didn't mention, maybe the lib or con might not end up with majority. Hopefully this happens because N.B can't afford an other lib or con majority government.


David Amos
David Amos
@Bernard McIntyre Heres hoping for a minority






Colin Seeley
Bernard McIntyre
There are more than francophone and anglophone people in N.B in case the writer of this article doesn't know.


David Amos
David Amos
@Bernard McIntyre YUP there are lots of Scottish and Irish folks too. Methinks French folks should Google "Harper and Bankers" and look for names such as McKenna and Bragg N'esy Pas?

Marguerite Deschamps
Marguerite Deschamps
@David Amos, "N'esy Pas"? What language is that?

David Amos
David Amos
@Marguerite Deschamps Chiac


Marc Martin
Marc Martin
@David Amos

I know some Chiacs and I've never heard them say that...Are you making things up again David?


Marguerite Deschamps
Marguerite Deschamps
@David Amos, I live at the center of Chiac country and there is no such word. That "N'esy Pas?" at the end of all your comments is mighty childish and corny.


David Amos
David Amos
@Marc Martin Methinks you should call my fellow Independent Dr Roger Richard in Kent North and ask him if he has heard my Chiac before when he comes down to Fundy N'esy Pas?








Marguerite Deschamps 
Marguerite Deschamps
Kris Austin, a former pastor? - Well that explains why he is so tolerant to minorities, just like those south of the border.

Colin Seeley
Marc Martin
@Marguerite Deschamps

Agreed.


David Amos
David Amos
@Marguerite Deschamps Methinks that you should have wrote that in Chiac N'esy Pas?


Marc Martin
Marc Martin
@David Amos

How is the life on social assistance David ?

David Amos
David Amos
@Marc Martin Clearly you have no idea who I am N'esy Pas?


Marc Martin
Marc Martin
@David Amos

No idea and dont want to know.






Colin Seeley 
Paul Arseneault
Here are my seat predictions for Monday's election. If anyone does see it different, please let me know. Thank you. Liberal 26 seats...( Rest-West, Camp-Dal, Rest-Ch,Bath-West,Bath-East, Caraquet, Ship-Lam, Trac-Sheila, Mir-Bay-Neg, Mir, Kent-North, Kent-South, Shed-Bay, Shed-Beau, Mem-Tan, Dieppe, Monc-East, Monc-Center, Monc-South, Fundy Isles-S.J., St. Croix, Fred-North, Carl-Vic, Vic-LaV, Ed-Mad, Mad-Les-Lacs)...P.C. 21 seats...( South-West-Mir, Monc-North, Monc-South, Riverview, Albert, Gage-Petit, Sussex-Fun, Hampton, Quis, Roth, S.J.East, Port-Sim, S.J. Har, Lanc, Kings-Cen, Oro-Linc, New Mary- Sun, Fred-York, Fred-West, Carl-York, Carleton, ) Green 1...( Fred-South), P.A. 1 ( Fred-Grand-Lake) .If I mistakenly left one out, or made some other accounting error my apologies. Any thoughts?


David Amos
David Amos
@Paul Arseneault Methinks like most elections there may a few surprises at the Circus that nobody could predict N'esy Pas?


Marc Martin
Marc Martin
@Paul Arseneault

You are going to make the purple crowd throw you tomato's lol

Bernard McIntyre
Bernard McIntyre
@Marc Martin. Hopefully you will still lol if the purple and green crowds hold the power.

Paul Arseneault
Paul Arseneault
@Marc Martin This is really just as I see it. I believe that the only liberal seat I placed in their win column, that might be in jeopardy is Stephen Horsman's seat in Fredericton. Other than that, I think this is pretty much how it shakes out.

Marc Martin
Marc Martin
@Paul Arseneault

Stephen Horseman will be re-elected.

Paul Arseneault
Paul Arseneault
@Marc Martin I hope so. A good friend and a good man!

Marc Martin
Marc Martin
@Paul Arseneault

Yeah he's pretty much everywhere unlike the purple leader who only attends Anti-French rally's and meetings.

Dianne MacPherson
Dianne MacPherson
@Paul Arseneault
But he doesn't belong in Politics !!!!

Marc Martin
Marc Martin
@Dianne MacPherson

Of course he does ! At least he can spell Fredericton correctly. :)

Dianne MacPherson
Dianne MacPherson
@Marc Martin
CASE CLOSED !!!

Dan Armitage
Dan Armitage
@Dianne MacPherson its the same every time he speaks

Marc Martin
Marc Martin
@Dianne MacPherson

Not really, it will be closed when I decide too.

Marc Martin
Marc Martin
@Dan Armitage

The Anti-French does not like me because I overwhelm them with facts.

David Amos
David Amos
@Marc Martin Reviser. Translation Services (Unit) · Service New Brunswick

David Amos
David Amos
@Marc Martin I remember you






Colin Seeley 
Gil Murray
It would be best if the billion $ boy failed to get a majority government. I doubt that my middle class income could withstand the strain of ever increasing taxes after electing the liberals. I don't like Blaine Higgs too much either but by comparison, at least he is not promising to "invest" the remainder of my earnings in questionable ventures and McKenna's TD Bank. Not before the election at any rate.
I would like to see somebody new who understands priorities and restraint.


David Amos
David Amos
@Gil Murray "I don't like Blaine Higgs too much either but by comparison, at least he is not promising to "invest" the remainder of my earnings in questionable ventures and McKenna's TD Bank. Not before the election at any rate."

Methinks folks should Google "Harper and Bankers" and look for names such as McKenna and Bragg N'esy Pas?





Colin Seeley 
Redmond O'Hanlon
Sounds like more fear mongering on "splitting the vote".


David Amos
David Amos
@Redmond O'Hanlon It is





Colin Seeley 
Marc LeBlanc
Forget the polls.Gathering polling information via land lines is antiquated and inaccurate.The undecideds will determine the outcome of this election


David Amos
David Amos
@Marc LeBlanc YUP






Colin Seeley
Dan Armitage
If Gallants government gets a majority get ready for them to spend more and take more from us. Not that we have anymore to give. They up'd the gas tax twice by adding 3 cents on the Litre as well adding 2 points on the PST. So how will they gauge us next time. It would have made sense but not taking care of the deficit proved how they have thier own agendas instead of the agenda for all New Brunswickers we are going bankrupt so get ready


David Amos
David Amos
@Dan Armitage I concur


 


 Colin Seeley
Johnny Horton
The polls aren’t close, but Eric Grendel still needs to justify his paycheque and convince his bosses he has a purpose.


David Amos
David Amos
@Johnny Horton YUP






Colin Seeley 
Shawn McShane
New Brunswick has slipped to the bottom of the list of median household income of all provinces and territories, down from second-lowest in 2005 with the highest rate of children living in low-income households. Yet with New Brunswick's individual tax burden- provincial personal income taxes, social security contributions paid by employees, property taxes, provincial sales taxes and the HST makes us the highest taxed province. Keep voting for more of the same with red or blue.


David Amos
David Amos
@Shawn McShane Methinks the NDP and the Greens would be even worse when it comes to taxation N'esy Pas?






JJ Carrier 
JJ Carrier
Been saying this for years for my readers for Brunswick News and my other pubs...How is this new?


David Amos
David Amos
@JJ Carrier Its not




https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/power-rate-freeze-nb-power-1.4829368


NB Power rate freeze could cost utility $135M in stranded carbon costs

Federal carbon taxes are scheduled to take effect on major greenhouse gas emitters like NB Power on Jan. 1

Robert Jones · CBC News · Posted: Sep 19, 2018 7:15 AM AT


41 Comments
 Commenting is now closed for this story.





David Amos   
David Amos
FYI This hearing is about to resume

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/eub-hearing-nb-power-rate-design-smart-meters-1.4305685

Methinks everybody knows I am running in this election and am still an Intervener in this matter N'esy Pas?






Marc LeBlanc
Marc LeBlanc
Correction...It will cost the taxpayers 135M


David Amos
David Amos
@Marc LeBlanc More





Marc LeBlanc 
Thomas Imber
It sounds like the supposed Liberal "freeze" on power bills has a caveat attached. Like everything Gallant says, there's always a catch, and it always costs New Brunswickers more.


David Amos
David Amos
@Thomas Imber YUP







Matt Steele 
Matt Steele
A power rate freeze would be great for New Brunswicker's ; and the short fall in revenue could easily be absorbed by cuts within the utility . N.B. Power is heavily overstaffed , and has been used as a make work project for political appointees for years . Rate payers would be shocked at the salaries that many N.B. Power employees are being paid ; even some of the Security Guards at Pt. Lepreau make in excess of a $100,000 a year ; and then people wonder why the power rates are so high ?.


David Amos
David Amos
@Matt Steele "N.B. Power is heavily overstaffed , and has been used as a make work project for political appointees for years "

YUP






 Murray Brown 
Murray Brown
So a taxpayer funded utility will need to give carbon taxes to the taxpayer funded federal government... Hmm! Pardon me while I laugh a minute. NB Power is likely one of the most wasteful and bloated utilities in existence. And with regards to carbon taxes, individuals who are truly convinced that the sky is falling are fee to pay extra taxes if they prefer to. The rest of us would prefer to keep the little bit of money we are left with after paying too many taxes already, in our own pockets.


David Amos
David Amos
@Murray Brown Welcome to the Circus







 stephen blunston 
stephen blunston
I do agree that nb power can probably find a lot of money to save if they stop letting their buddies run it , but at those costs I not sure. maybe they need to get big business to fair actual costs and polluters pay , or better yet stop selling to the US east coast cheaper than they sell it to us


David Amos
David Amos
@stephen blunston I agree






 Marc LeBlanc 
Shawn McShane
Progressive Conservative carbon tax impact isn't exaggerated after all?

The utility indicated that if carbon taxes were imposed at those levels (federal) it would require significantly more money from customers...


David Amos
David Amos
@Shawn McShane YUP







 Marc LeBlanc 
Jeff Smith
Another flat regressive tax on everyone is what carbon taxes are. Why do Liberals always try to dress it up as something good?


David Amos
David Amos
@Jeff Smith Methinks its just another one of those things "Canada's Natural Governing Party" does that most of us fail to appreciate N'esy Pas?






 Marc LeBlanc 
herbie harris
NB power will have to find some cost savings that's all imagine if they really could and the taxpayers got stable rates for the next 4 years.. WOW

David Amos
David Amos
@herbie harris Imagine






Marc LeBlanc 
Marc Martin
They should have sold NB Powers year ago. The Anglo did not want to sell it.


Toby Tolly
Toby Tolly
@Marc Martin
the problem is
you dont pick who you sell it to
you put it out for offers
(shady deal)

Marc Martin
Marc Martin
@Toby Tolly

Ah the famous don't sell it to *Quebec* because they are French...Look at where we are now, all the Anglo fault.

Rosco holt
Rosco holt
@Marc Martin
We would have the same rates, if not higher.

The sale was to please Irving, not benefit NBers.


Shawn McShane
Shawn McShane
@Marc Martin MONTREAL — Two Hydro-Quebec executives in charge of the contentious smart-meter program quietly resigned...The $1-billion smart-meter file has sparked boycotts and petitions over the safety of the devices and Hydro-Quebec’s pushy installation measures. Clients have reported major hikes on their hydro bills and difficulty getting answers from Hydro-Quebec.

stephen blunston
stephen blunston
@Marc Martin we wanty4ed to sell but the company buying didn't want all the parts like coal plants and stuff they only wanted the good parts and leave taxpayers to pay to decommission the bad parts , glad they didn't take that terrible deal

Marc Martin
Marc Martin
@Rosco holt

*We would have the same rates*

But less of 6 billion in depth

*The sale was to please Irving*

The sale to Quebec was to be able to bring down rates for big companies to establish in NB, NB is among the highest in electricity rates for big industries.

Marc Martin
Marc Martin
@Shawn McShane

And what does this have anything to do with my post ? Remember what I told you earlier pot will only be legal in October.

Marc Martin
Marc Martin
@stephen blunston

Terrible deal eh, they would have taken the Mactaquac dam, how is the dam going to cost us again ? minimum 4 billion and they would have given us 5 billion to buy the power plant. Another thing you might add is that all the salaries on NB power where going to be paid by Hydro Quebec. Oh before I forget since the electricity lines could not carry enough electricity to sell to the US they would have upgraded them all , that would have brought jobs to the province...Lets do the math shall we...5 billion + 4.5 Billion + 5 million in salaries = 10 billion $... The 10 billion $ would have done a lot for the province don't you think...

Marc Martin
Marc Martin
@stephen blunston

Oh I forgot...Hydro Quebec qould have taken over the cost of Point Lepreau after it was completed...It was completed 3 years ago..Now lets do math again, Point Lepreau costs us 1 million a day each time its closed..So we probably ended paying around 500+ million so far. Anymore questions or concerns?

Rosco holt
Rosco holt
@Marc Martin
*We would have the same rates*

But less of 6 billion in depth

*The sale was to please Irving*

The sale to Quebec was to be able to bring down rates for big companies to establish in NB, NB is among the highest in electricity rates for big industries.*We would have the same rates*

You fail to understand that we would pay either way, 6 billion would still be paid be NBers.

Has for big Industries having the highest rates, that's BS brought by Irving to get his way. It's been said at the EUB that big industrial users don't pay their fair share of the electricity they use. Their rate is below the cost of production. If I recall correctly their rate is 3 c/KWH while the cost of production was 7.

And what big industry would come to NB, except those who come to get huge subsidies?

Marc Martin
Marc Martin
@Rosco holt

*You fail to understand that we would pay either way, 6 billion would still be paid be NBers. *

Not at all...and I explained it and wont explain it again, you can ask an intelligent relative of yours to explain it to you.

*Has for big Industries having the highest rates, that's BS brought by Irving to get his way.*

https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/energy/facts/electricity/20068

*And what big industry would come to NB, except those who come to get huge subsidies?*

Every industry live on subsidies across Canada.

Rosco holt
Rosco holt
@Marc Martin
"Not at all...and I explained it and wont explain it again, you can ask an intelligent relative of yours to explain it to you. "

You should question you're own intelligence if you believe what politicians says.

By their chart NB rates are 4th that's in (2017). 

Hydro Quebec's plan was to raise rates to pay for their purchase . The Graham plan was to transfer ownership of the assets( no money) that Quebec wanted which was mainly transmission and sold what they didn't wanted, out of which there were no guarantee that the third party buyers would respect the agreement between the Graham government and Hydro.

"Every industry live on subsidies across Canada."
That is why we are in a financial mess.
 

David Amos
David Amos
@Marc Martin Methinks we should meet N'esy Pas?




Why winning the most votes might not be enough for Brian Gallant's Liberals

Liberals have historically needed far more votes than the PCs to secure a majority


Brian Gallant's Liberals have a wide lead in the polls among francophone New Brunswickers, but are trailing among anglophones. (James West/Canadian Press)

For Brian Gallant's Liberals, winning the most votes in New Brunswick's Sept. 24 election might not be enough to keep their party in power.

The Liberals have historically won francophone ridings with strong majorities — bumping up the party's popular vote — but ultimately lose or end up with a minority government when the Progressive Conservatives squeak by in anglophone ridings. Whether a party wins a seat by 2,000 votes or 200 votes, they still only get one seat..

It's called an inefficient vote and polls are increasingly suggesting it could be at play in 2018. That means Gallant might need to beat Blaine Higgs' Progressive Conservatives by a significant margin in the provincewide popular vote to secure another majority government.

According to the CBC's New Brunswick Poll Tracker, the Liberals hold a 6.7-point lead over the PCs and are projected to win between 22 and 35 seats, compared to 12-25 seats for the Tories. The most likely outcome would give the Liberals 27 seats, but in three of those ridings the Liberals are projected to have a lead of three points or less. It would not take much to flip those seats blue and drop the Liberals below the 25-seat threshold for a majority government.

The model suggests that if the Liberal lead over the PCs province wide drops below five points, they would no longer be favoured to win more seats than the PCs.

This is nothing new for the Liberals. While their vote's inefficiency is not a constant in every provincial election, the Liberals have needed more votes to win more seats than the PCs in most elections since New Brunswick first adopted single-member districts in 1974.

Ridings won by thin spreads decided 2014 election 


This was especially marked in 2014, when the Liberals won just six more seats than the PCs despite taking the popular vote by a margin of 8.1 percentage points. The four ridings the Liberals took by the narrowest margins — the ridings that made the difference between the Liberals and PCs forming a majority government — were won by a difference of 1.4 points or less.

Theoretically, had the popular vote swung toward the PCs by just 1.4 points, those four seats would have gone to the Tories. This means that the PCs could have won a majority government while losing the popular vote by as much as 6.7 points.

While that's the most extreme example, the PCs could still have secured a majority government in 1974, 1987 and 1995 even if they had lost the popular vote by around four points.

On average, the Liberals have needed to win the popular vote by at least 1.7 points in order to win a majority government. If we exclude the 1991 provincial election — in which the Confederation of Regions party formed the official opposition with 21.2 per cent of the vote, splitting the conservative vote with the PCs — the Liberals have needed an average lead of at least 2.3 points over the PCs to win a majority government.

In only three of the last 11 elections in New Brunswick has the PC vote been more inefficient: in 1991, 2003 and 2006.

Francophone vote behind inefficiency


According to the electoral boundaries and representation commission — which redrew the province's electoral boundaries before the 2014 vote — there were 14 ridings in which at least two-thirds of the population listed French as its mother tongue in the 2011 census.

In those 14 ridings, the Liberals won an average of 56 per cent of the vote in 2014, beating the Progressive Conservatives by 28.5 points and winning 13 of them.

By comparison, the PCs won 10 of the 14 ridings with the highest share of anglophones. On average, the PCs were 9.1 points ahead of the Liberals in these 14 ridings. Overall, ridings in which at least four-fifths of the population was English-speaking were won by the PCs by an average margin of 7.5 points.

Liberal gains among francophones in 2014


However, this represents a rather dramatic swing from earlier elections. In 2010, the PCs won those French-speaking ridings by an average of 2.9 points — and the predominantly anglophone ones by a margin of 23 points.

In 2006, there was virtually no linguistic split between the two parties. The Liberals won the most francophone ridings by an average of 0.2 points and lost the anglophone ones by 0.3 points.

It suggests there was a dramatic swing in the francophone vote between 2010 and 2014 that helped the Liberals get elected but increased the inefficiency of their vote. Provincewide, there was a 22.4-point swing in support between the  PCs and the Liberals between 2010 and 2014. In francophone ridings, the swing was 31.4 points — twice what it was in English-speaking ridings.

Could Liberal fortunes get worse in 2018?


Two polls published last week suggest the vote could be getting even more inefficient for the Liberals. Forum Research found the Liberals ahead of the PCs among francophones by a margin of 60 to 23 per cent, while a Léger/Acadie-Nouvelle poll put the gap at 64 to 14 per cent. It suggests the Liberals are on track to win predominantly francophone ridings by enormous margins.

But among anglophones, Forum and Léger put the PCs ahead of the Liberals by seven and six points, respectively. They found competitive races or splits that favoured the PCs in Fredericton and Saint John.


New Brunswick Progressive Conservative Leader Blaine Higgs has struggled to make inroads among francophones. (James West/Canadian Press)
If those kinds of numbers are replicated in the Sept. 24 election, the Liberals could win New Brunswick's francophone ridings by an even wider margin than they did in 2014 — giving them few, if any, extra seats in the Legislative Assembly — while losing ridings with higher anglophone populations by narrow margins. This is the recipe for a Liberal popular vote victory that still results in a PC majority government.

The surging popularity of the People's Alliance and Greens further complicates the electoral arithmetic, with the potential to distort the relationship between the popular vote and legislative seats even further.

About the Author


Éric Grenier
Politics and polls
Éric Grenier is a senior writer and the CBC's polls analyst. He was the founder of ThreeHundredEight.com and has written for The Globe and Mail, Huffington Post Canada, The Hill Times, Le Devoir, and L’actualité.




NB Power rate freeze could cost utility $135M in stranded carbon costs

Federal carbon taxes are scheduled to take effect on major greenhouse gas emitters like NB Power on Jan. 1


Brian Gallant has said a re-elected Liberal government would introduce legislation to freeze power rates over the next four years for residential customers and small businesses. (Shane Magee/CBC)



The potential cost of a four-year power rate freeze to NB Power keeps climbing.

On Tuesday, the Liberals said they will not allow NB Power to pass along the cost of any carbon taxes imposed by the federal government to customers covered by a freeze, on top of not allowing the utility to apply for its normal two per cent rate hikes.

That could leave the utility stuck with $135 million in stranded carbon costs over four years and raise the total revenue shortfall to NB Power because of the promised freeze to as high as $300 million.
That is well-beyond the "$13 million per year" the Liberals suggested when the policy was unveiled three weeks ago.

Still, the party is adamant it weighed all the potential financial consequences to the utility before the freeze was proposed.

"We have considered all of the cost pressures and believe that this can be achieved," said Jonathan Tower, a Liberal party spokesperson, in an email to CBC News about whether the rate freeze will hold in the face of federal carbon taxes.

"The rate freeze will apply to all residential and small business customers for four years."

Federal carbon tax to take effect 


Federal carbon taxes are scheduled to take effect on major greenhouse gas emitters, such as NB Power, on Jan. 1.

Although the final amounts are not set, the utility has a large carbon footprint and it is generally known what kind of bill it is facing.

According to rules put forward by the federal government so far, NB Power's coal-fired generating station in Belledune will have to start paying a $10 per tonne tax on about 60 per cent of its total emissions in January after credits are applied — an amount that will cost the utility close to $18 million for 2019.

That will double in 2020, triple in 2021 and quadruple in 2022 until the tax reaches $50 per tonne in 2023.




Liberals promise to freeze power rates

 Gallant promised to freeze NB Power rates if re-elected. He said "enough is enough." 0:56 


Additional emission taxes will have to be paid by NB Power on output at four other oil- and diesel-fired generating stations. While carbon costs will also raise prices on power, NB Power is obliged to buy from two privately-owned natural gas generators.  
Earlier this year the utility indicated that if carbon taxes were imposed at those levels it would require significantly more money from customers to remain profitable.

Darren Murphy, NB Power's chief financial officer, explained to the Energy and Utilities Board in March that the utility was committed to limiting its rate increases to two per cent, unless a carbon tax was imposed.

"The one single exception to that I would suggest is the uncertainty associated with carbon cost," said Murphy.

Special annual rate increases


According to the utility's 10-year financial plan the federal carbon tax — if imposed — could require a series of special annual rate increases of 1.7 per cent to customers to pay for the extra costs, on top of the standard two per cent increase the utility normally applies for.

That's a combined 3.7 per cent increase beginning on April 1, 2019 and continuing for several years to follow.


Carbon tax scenarios

The CBC's provincial affairs reporter, Jacques Poitras, breaks down the carbon tax scenarios for you. And whether you will pay more. 1:54


But potential carbon costs were not mentioned as being covered by the freeze when Liberal Leader Brian Gallant announced the promise on Aug. 29 — only the regular two per cent hike
"The planned two per cent increase that NB Power has mused about for the last little while for the next four years would cost the NB Power customers about $13 million per year," said Gallant.

"Consumers will no longer have to pay the cost of NB Power's planned rate increases which could have cost them more than $13 million extra each year over the four years."


New Brunswick Leaders' Debate: Environment

 New Brunswick’s party leaders discuss environmental issues at the leaders’ debate on Wednesday night. 8:31


The actual amount of money involved — including the rate freeze's effect on carbon costs — is more than double that.

The freeze is set to apply to $784 million of NB Power's current electricity sales, preventing the utility from charging both a two per cent regular rate increase and a special 1.7 carbon cost increase would save affected consumers — and cause a revenue shortfall to NB Power of $29 million in the first year — not $13 million.

Identical rate hikes planned for subsequent years means the revenue shortfall would then compound to $59 million in the second year of the freeze, $90 million in year three and $122 million in year four — for a total combined cost to NB Power over the four years of  $300 million.

Liberals say cost cutting at the the utility and other measures can make up for lost revenue caused by the rate freeze and leave NB Power profitable.



https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/kent-north-profile-candidates-1.4830206



Green Party hopes to cultivate Kent North, stronghold for the Liberals in last 2 elections

Richibucto area riding needs to keep farms strong, candidate says


Green Party candidate Kevin Arseneau says his party could take Kent North this election after a second-place finish in 2014. (Tori Weldon/CBC)

The Green Party is hoping to take the riding of Kent North surrounding​ Richibucto, a reliable Liberal riding during recent elections.

The Liberals won by a landslide in 2014, when Bertrand LeBlanc earned more than 4,000 votes and secured the riding for the Liberals for a second term. But Green candidate Rebeka Frazer-Chiasson took second place with more than 1,700 votes.

Now Green party candidate Kevin Arseneau wants to take first place.


Green party versus Liberal


Arseneau said he's been knocking on doors and is consistently hearing that people are fed up with the two parties that usually control the province and are looking for another option.

The organic farmer from Rogersville said he believes the riding needs a strong voice for rural economic development and he also wants to revitalize family farms in the area.
"We have to stop seeing rural development as one-size-fits-all," he said. "Kent North will thrive when we start looking at economic development in a different way for every community that's part of the riding.

 "I think we have to trust the people on the ground," said Arseneau.

The Liberal candidate won Kent North by a large margin in 2014. 
 "I feel confident, but obviously the real test will be Sept. 24," he said. "We've never been this close to winning."

But Liberal candidate Emery Comeau said he is confident he'll be able to secure the riding much like past Liberal candidates. ​Comeau was the assistant to former MLA Bertrand LeBlanc and stepped forward when LeBlanc decided not to seek re-election.

Comeau agrees that rural economic development is a key concern for voters, along with the condition of local roads.

 "They're concerned about the finances of province, health care and education," he said. "We have an aging population and we're losing our youth."
"Road were the most common thing talked about," said Comeau.

The government under Brian Gallant has made progress keeping young people in the region, he added.
"The platform that Brian has, I find it's all there," he said.

"We're very confident, but we don't take anything for granted," he said. "I'm going to keep doing what I'm doing, meeting people, but I feel good where I am."

NDP candidate says he won't win


New Democratic Party​ candidate Neil Gardner, a professor with St. Thomas University, also says that bringing back youth is a big issue for Kent North and can be done through economic development.

He said while it's not likely the NDP will win the riding he noted that the party's 2014 candidate, Allan Marsh, secured 13 per cent of the vote.
Gardner believes transparency about government subsidies to corporations is also an important issue.
"It's time New Brunswickers took the province back from the corporation," he said. "We shouldn't be a company province anymore."

Roger Richard said he's hoping to get a few votes as the independent candidate, but isn't doing any campaigning to get them.

He decided to run as an independent after the Green Party decided to support smart meters.
"Either you are for the environment or you are not and that's why."

Richard said he doesn't think any of the parties have a strong enough voice when it comes to protecting the environment.

Katie Robertson is running in Kent North for the Progressive Conservative Party and Roger Richard is running as an Independent.

Voters go to the polls on Sept. 24.







https://globalnews.ca/news/4403536/new-brunswick-election-sussex-fundy-st-martins/


New Brunswick election: Sussex-Fundy-St. Martins



Global News


Riding background

Sussex-Fundy-St. Martins is a rural riding that extends along the Trans-Canada Highway from Burton in the west to Steeves Mountain in the east. The riding includes Sussex, Sussex Corner and St. Martins.

Since 2006, the riding has steadfastly elected a PC candidate, but had flipped between Liberal and PC from 1987 to 2006.

The 2013 redistricting saw Kings East incorporate parts of the Hampton-Kings and Saint John-Fundy ridings. Kings East was also renamed Sussex-Fundy-St. Martins.

Candidates

Liberal: Ian Smyth

Progressive Conservative: Bruce Northrup (incumbent)
  • Served as the Minister of Natural Resources and the minister of public safety in previous Tory governments 



NDP: Dawna Robertson

Green: Fred Harrison

People’s Alliance: Jim Bedford

Independent: David Raymond Amos

History

 

2014
PC incumbent Bruce Northrup re-offered in the 2014 election.
Northrup retained his seat, earning 49.9 per cent of the vote compared to Liberal candidate Heike MacGreor, who earned 23.2 per cent of the vote. 

2010
Tory incumbent Bruce Northrup retained his seat with 66.7 per cent of the vote, defeating Liberal challenger George Horton who earned 21.1 per cent of the vote.

© 2018 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.


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