Nobody should be surprised to see the LIEbrano Propaganda Machine claim Trudeau The Younger has the edge on the 2019 election N'esy Pas?

https://twitter.com/DavidRayAmos/with_replies



David Raymond Amos‏ @DavidRayAmos

Replying to @DavidRayAmos @Kathryn98967631 and 49 others

Methinks the LIEbrano Propaganda Machine erased one too many comments after it was read by others 

https://davidraymondamos3.blogspot.com/2018/10/nobody-should-be-surprised-to-sse.html

#TrudeauMustGo #nbpoli #cdnpoli #TrumpKnew


Trudeau The Younger can't deny that it contained a link to this file N'esy Pas?

 https://www.scribd.com/doc/2718120/integrity-yea-right




David Raymond Amos‏ @DavidRayAmos

Replying to @DavidRayAmos @Kathryn98967631 and 49 others

Nobody should be surprised to see the LIEbrano Propaganda Machine claim Trudeau The Younger has the edge on the 2019 election N'esy Pas?

https://davidraymondamos3.blogspot.com/2018/10/nobody-should-be-surprised-to-sse.html

#TrudeauMustGo #nbpoli #cdnpoli #TrumpKnew

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-polls-2019-election-1.4870074

365 days to go — and Trudeau's Liberals have the edge on the 2019 election

Parties that lead in the polls one year before an election win ... most of the time

Éric Grenier · CBC News · Posted: Oct 21, 2018 4:00 AM ET

8754 Comments
Commenting is now closed for this story.

daryl tan

carbon tax + illegal walkins = 1 term PM Trudeau

Richard Sharp

@daryl tan

Scheer - Bernier = new Con leader in 2020

mo bennett

@Richard Sharp reformacons don't know what the word leader means! they picked steve over petey, then they go and vote andy the invisible evangelical to the pulpit! reformacons will wander in the un-elected abyss for decades until all of steve's parts have been vanquished!!

Bill Nazarene

@daryl tan

Meanwhile, Andrew Scheer's Party of Jim Keegstra, Malcolm Ross, Monika Schaefer, Kevin J. Johnston, Alexandre Bissonnette, Lombray Ball and Gabriel Sohier Chaput has an end-game that involves loading people onto the backs of trucks while moderate conservatives look the other way - preferring instead to court the Alt-Right's toxic support.

There are some people you do not pander to - no matter how strong your thirst for power..

David Amos

@Bill Nazarene Methinks Monika Schaefer ran a couple times under the Green Meanie Party Banner not Harper's N'esy Pas?

David Amos

@Richard Sharp "Scheer - Bernier = new Con leader in 2020"

Methinks although am not fan o either dude I must admit that and agree with the majority in that they have a far better understanding of how the world works than the beloved leader of potheads does N'esy Pas?

David Amos

@mo bennett "reformacons don't know what the word leader means! they picked steve over petey"

YO MO Methinks you still seem bitter over Petey's loss many moons ago N'esy Pas?

Rob Lehtisaari

@daryl tan

Anthropogenic Climate Change + Stupid electorate = Extinction of man

Maybe Man has more to worry about than a couple of bucks, or politics that ignores real threats to all of mankind?

Richard Sharp

@daryl tan

The numbers are favourable for the Trudeau Libs because of their many, undeniable accomplishments, from simply undoing scores of Harper’s mistakes and economic progress to transformational child benefit and Senate reforms. The Lib government is respectful and has worked well with other nations, the provinces, First Nations, the media, labour unions and on and on. The opposition parties pale in comparison.

David Amos

@Richard Sharp "The numbers are favourable for the Trudeau Libs because of their many, undeniable accomplishments"

Methinks thou doth jest too much. Just because your leader Prime Minister Trudeau The Younger made partaking of wacky tobaccy legal recently it does not justify you boring us with your pipe dreams N'esy Pas?

bill laplante

@david mccaig You are mistaken, all the largest majority wins in Canadian history have been won by Conservatives.

David Amos

@Rob Lehtisaari "Anthropogenic Climate Change + Stupid electorate = Extinction of man"

Methinks trudeau The Younger's peoplekind would be wise to ignore greedy fear mongers It is the war mongers and their bankster buddies who the rest of mankind should worry about N'esy Pas?

David Amos

@bill laplante "You are mistaken"

Methinks you are mistaken if you think you can change the mind of somebody who believes that liberals are "Canada's Natural Governing Party" N'esy Pas?

Rob Lehtisaari

@daryl tan states, "carbon tax + illegal walkins = 1 term PM Trudeau"

Science & Politics recognize:
Anthropogenic Climate Change + Stupid electorate = Extinction of man

Maybe Man has more to worry about than a couple of bucks, or politics that ignores real threats to all of mankind?

If you can't refute the message then censorship of it by draconian authoritarians does not erase these facts of life.

 
Ron Smith

Lovely, my hard earned dollars are being taxed for the purposes of cheerleading Trudeau.

Richard Sharp

@Ron Smith

The Harper Cons spent $.75 billion patting themselves on the back with EAP ads alone. Trudeau cancelled the unethical and wasteful use of tax dollars for partisan purposes the day he took office.

Rob Lehtisaari

@Ron Smith

The above political analysis by the statistical polls the realities of the record in history, and current "players" in the political field of choices for the electorate is exactly what Canadians expect from our public broadcaster.

Comprehension, or lack there of is the responsibility of the reader/consumer.

I read the facts, just the facts Ron, how did you come up with your, "cheerleading Trudeau"?

Could it be from already held bias, or prejudice of our public broadcaster?

David Amos

@Ron Smith Methinks the very obvious constant cheer leading of Trudeau The Younger will quite likely backfire of them in 365 days N'esy Pas?

David Amos

@Rob Lehtisaari "Could it be from already held bias, or prejudice of our public broadcaster?"

Not on my part everybody knows I come by my political analysis the hard way. Whereas I agree that comprehension, or lack there of is the responsibility of the reader/consumer (Although CBC is not selling us anything We own it) I ask that you please check the work of our public broadcaster and the comments of out fellow taxpayers during the last election. Methinks turnabout is fair play N'esy Pas?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/fundy-royal-riding-profile-1.3274276

David Amos

@Richard Sharp "Trudeau cancelled the unethical and wasteful use of tax dollars for partisan purposes the day he took office."

Methinks that you forgot that Trudeau the Younger's first budget pledged an extra $675-million in CBC funding while the Privy Council Office wanted $600,000 more than Harper was getting by with to update Trudeau’s website N'esy Pas?

Rob Lehtisaari

@Ron Smith

The above political analysis by the statistical polls the realities of the record in history, and current "players" in the political field of choices for the electorate is exactly what Canadians expect from our public broadcaster.

Comprehension, or lack there of is the responsibility of the reader/consumer.

I read the facts, just the facts Ron, how did you come up with your, "cheerleading Trudeau"?

Could it be from already held bias, or prejudice of our public broadcaster, Ron?

 
Joyce Hope Shortell

Trudeau and the liberals have done little to advance the economy. The economy grew with an uptick in oil. They have blundered on border crossings, business trips to China and India, ethics violations etc and this is who Canadians want to lead them.

Rob Lehtisaari

@Joyce Hope Shortell

In the last forty-two years, the time that we have accurate statistical records that can be compared Canada's economy is doing the best it ever has.

If you insist on saying the sky is falling, and that is the excuse peddled to change political leadership...the people, informed people will see that message as the misinformation it is and rightly discount it's credibility, and likely discount the sources as lacking credibility by have a record of propagating such misinformation.

Joan MacDonald

@Rob Lehtisaari
Are you Richard Sharp?

David Amos

@Joan MacDonald Methinks many would agree if it is not then he must be a kissing cousin N'esy Pas?

Content disabled.

David Amos 

@Rob Lehtisaari

You should try going back a little further in history

Everybody knows 44 years ago Canada had next to zero for a National Debt and what we did owe was to ourselves byway of the Bank of Canada. thanks to R.B Bennent (He also created the CBC and the Wheat Board) Then Trudeau the Elder decided to borrow money from Banksters and now look at the fix we are in.

Methinks there was quite a downturn 10 years ago and that was 4 long years after after I ran for a seat in the 38th Parliament because politicians were ignoring my warning about financial issues etc These day the stack markets are soaring on speculation only. However what goes up must come down N'esy Pas?


https://www.scribd.com/doc/2718120/integrity-yea-right

David Amos

@Rob Lehtisaari "Comprehension, or lack there of is the responsibility of the reader/consumer."

Methinks I should ask the obvious question can you exercise your responsibility when legitimate replies to you are blocked?

That said perhaps I should at least point out the fact that there was quite a downturn in the worldwide economy 10 years ago. That was 4 long years after I ran for a seat in the 38th Parliament because politicians were ignoring my warnings about financial issues etc These days the stock markets are soaring on speculation only. However Mother Nature dictates that what goes up must come down N'esy Pas?

Joe Wenham

Mind numbing to think that many people still support Trudeau.

mo bennett

@Joe Wenham even more mind numbing that there's people out there who support steve ll !! aka andy the invisible.

David Amos

@Joe Wenham I concur

David Amos

@mo bennett OH MO why so bitter?

David Amos

@mo bennett YO MO try singing your cousin R.B Bennett's praises and see how quick you will be blocked.

  

Dave Davidson

This whole term has been a complete joke on the part of this government - there is not exactly a crop of good options this time around, but I can't imagine how people can still vote for JT yet again. One blunder after another.

Richard Sharp

@Dave Davidson

The child benefit reforms pulled 300,000 children out of poverty and no government ever has done so much so quickly to alleviate the suffering of Canada’s Indigenous people. Pension reform. A health accord and climate action plan. Marijuana legalization. Infrastructure and green technology investments. Record low unemployment. Three trade deals. Canada again constructively engage with the UN and other international institutions.

What are you talking about Dave?

David Amos

@Dave Davidson Methinks it will be a long time before we forget Harper with Andy singing his praises Hence he is giving Trudeau the Younger the edge ne needs N'esy Pas?

  

John Paul Smith

The word on the street says otherwise.

I don’t believe that the federal liberals can come back from the various follies they’ve brought on themselves. People are paying attention, and they don’t forget. Canadians are not gullible.

David Amos

@John Paul Smith "Canadians are not gullible."

Methinks many are gullible However on the other hand many wise ones believe the liberals are banking on Maxime splitting the vote N'esy Pas?

Luke Armstrong

I can't think of one reason to re-elect Mr. Incompetent Trudeau.

David Amos

@Luke Armstrong Methinks the smartest one of the bunch is Maxime but it would not be wise to trust that lawyer as far as you could throw him N'esy Pas?

Rob Lehtisaari 

@Luke Armstrong

Thinking, critical thinking, and conversation, serious conversation of our federal politics and ramifications cannot occur from name calling, or bumper sticker rhetorical attacks--most especially if those attacks are baseless, or unsubstantiated meme's. While they might make the base "feel better" by appealing to their fear, or hatred, they actually reveal to most Canadians small mindedness, and a failure to address what Canada needs from it's political leaders.

There are serious issues who's failure to address will actually accelerate, and insure the extinction of man, there are serious issues for Canadians regarding education, health care, a national pharma-care program, as well as poverty, and an actual class warfare of plutocracy over democracy.

Competent citizens/electorate recognize the dumbing down of the issues away from platforms to simple grade school name calling, and intellect as lacking competence to even have a discussion if all that is being discussed is these name calling, and alternative facts (lies) trotted out instead to an electorate that's intelligence is being insulted by such manner of campaigning.

Darren MacDonald

The imposed carbon tax on January 1st should be a hit among voters. What's a few more people trying to decide to heat their house or put food on the table.

Troy Mann

@Darren MacDonald

The rebate cheque arriving just for summer vacation will be a big hit

Bill Nazarene

@Darren MacDonald

You make a mess, you pay to clean it up.

Welcome to the adult world.

David Amos

@Darren MacDonald "What's a few more people trying to decide to heat their house or put food on the table."

Survey Says???

David Amos

@Bill Nazarene "Welcome to the adult world."

Nope

Welcome to the Circus

Doug Gray

When was the last time that polls accurately reported what Canadians think?

David Amos

@Doug Gray Methinks its every polling day N'esy Pas?

 
Rick Sanchez

Yes Eric a whole year is a long, long, time out from an election. And one year from today the Trudeau Liberal government will be defeated.

Stanley Baird

@Rick Sanchez the PMO must have ordered a positive CBC article

David Amos

@Stanley Baird Of that I have no doubt

365 days to go — and Trudeau's Liberals have the edge on the 2019 election

Parties that lead in the polls one year before an election win ... most of the time

Éric Grenier · CBC News · Posted: Oct 21, 2018 4:00 AM ET

After an up and down 2018, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party is leading in the polls one year ahead of the 2019 federal election. (Chris Young/Canadian Press)

A lot can happen in a year.

But all else being equal, a party would prefer to be ahead rather than behind in the run-up to a general election — even with a full year still to go. Which is where Justin Trudeau's Liberals find themselves with 365 days left before the 2019 federal election.

The next vote is scheduled to be held one year from today, on Oct. 21, 2019. The polls right now suggest the odds are in Trudeau's favour. But the political environment remains competitive and volatile.

• Interactive
  Poll Tracker: Federal poll averages and seat projections

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  The Pollcast: Counting down to 2019

Still, history is on the Liberals' side. In more than three-quarters of elections held since the Second World War, the party leading in the polls 12 months out has held on to win 12 months later.

According to the CBC's Poll Tracker, an aggregation of all publicly available polling data, the Liberals lead with 37.3 per cent support nationwide, putting them four percentage points ahead of the Conservatives, who trail with 33.1 per cent.

The New Democrats find themselves stuck in third place with 15.5 per cent support, followed by the Greens at seven per cent and the Bloc Québécois at 3.9 per cent. Another three per cent of Canadians say they would vote for another party — including the 1.4 per cent who say they will back Maxime Bernier's People's Party.

With these numbers, the Poll Tracker estimates that the Liberals would have a two-in-three chance of winning a majority government and a six-in-seven chance of winning the most seats. That would leave the Conservatives with about a one-in-seven chance of winning the most seats if the polls are still showing these kinds of numbers in one year's time.

The best current estimate is that these levels of support would produce around 182 seats for the Liberals, well over the 169-seat threshold required for a majority government. According to that forecast, the Conservatives would follow with 127 seats, the NDP with 19 seats, the Bloc with eight and the Greens with two.

Trudeau hopes history repeats itself

Voting intentions have changed significantly over the course of this past year. The margin between the Liberals and Conservatives in the Poll Tracker was as wide as eight points in December, while the Tories led by as much as four points in March. So things could change over the next 12 months.

That's normal. In 23 federal elections held since 1945, parties have seen their support shift by an average of nearly six points between where they stood in the polls one year out and where they ended up on election day.

Nevertheless, the leading party in the polls a year before those 23 elections won 16 times and lost only five times. In two of those losses — in 1957 and 1979 — the party leading the polls a year out still won the popular vote but lost on the seat count. In the remaining two elections, two parties were tied for the lead in the polls a year out.

So while the mood of the electorate can shift dramatically in a year, it tends not to result in a different party coming out on top. But the historical record suggests we should not be surprised if the margin between the Liberals and Conservatives narrows. In the year before an election, the gap between the leading and trailing parties in the polls has shrunk by an average of three points.

Liberals stabilizing after falling behind

At the moment, however, the trend line is heading in the opposite direction for the Liberals. After falling into a tie or behind the Conservatives between March and July — a decline that coincided with the prime minister's troubled trip to India — the party has moved back ahead since the beginning of the summer.

The party leads comfortably in both Ontario and Quebec — two provinces that, on the basis of current polling, would push the party most of the way toward a majority government on their own. The Liberals' leads in British Columbia and Atlantic Canada would push them the rest of the way to 169.

Polls by the Innovative Research Group and Abacus Data suggest more Canadians view Trudeau favourably than not, though a majority of voters no longer have a positive impression of him. But he leads Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer by an average of 14 points on the question of who Canadians prefer as prime minister — a far wider gap than exists between the two parties.

Scheer still waiting to make an impression

It suggests that while Trudeau remains a positive asset for the Liberals, Scheer is not boosting the Conservatives beyond the brand appeal of the party. Since their peak during the height of the India controversy, the Conservatives have slipped five points.

But Scheer can still boast that his party is in a better position than it was three years ago. The Poll Tracker has consistently pegged the Conservatives as on track for more than the 99 seats they won in 2015. And while the Liberals currently stand about two points below their popular vote share in the last election, the Conservatives sit about a point higher than they did in 2015.

Andrew Scheer's Conservatives lead in Alberta and the Prairie provinces, but have lost their lead in Ontario and have seen their numbers slump in Quebec. (Sean Kilpatrick/Canadian Press)

Scheer still has some work to do to become better known. About 25 to 26 per cent of Canadians have a favourable view of Scheer; roughly the same share have a negative view of him. But between 46 and 53 per cent of Canadians say they have either a neutral opinion of Scheer or none at all — suggesting the Conservative leader has still not made a significant impression on half of the country some 17 months after taking over the party.

Jagmeet Singh's NDP continues to struggle

Jagmeet Singh, who has been the leader of the NDP for a little more than a year, is also struggling to make a mark on about half of the electorate. But polls suggest Singh's doing worse than Scheer when it comes to connecting with voters: roughly 18 to 20 per cent have a positive view of him.

Just seven per cent choose Singh as the best person to be prime minister, only one point ahead of Green Party Leader Elizabeth May and just two points ahead of Bernier.

The NDP enjoyed a boost in support in Ontario after the provincial election in June, but it has since slumped to some of its lowest numbers under leader Jagmeet Singh. (Sean Kilpatrick/Canadian Press)

The New Democrats have slipped four points since the end of July, when the honeymoon from the Ontario NDP's robust performance in the June provincial election began to wear off. The slide of seven points in Ontario since then — as well as the party's stagnation in Quebec, where it is registering just 15 per cent support — puts the NDP in a precarious position.

If an election were held today, the NDP would have a good chance of being reduced to its smallest caucus since Jack Layton's first election as party leader in 2004.

Greens, Bernier could surprise in 2019

The weakness of the NDP helps the Liberals own the centre-left vote. It might open an opportunity for the Greens as well. The party's provincial cousins have scored breakthroughs in Ontario and New Brunswick in elections this year and lead the polls in Prince Edward Island.

That has translated into a slight uptick nationally for the Greens, who sit at their highest level of support since before the last election. Regionally, the Greens are scoring well in B.C. (14 per cent) and have surpassed the NDP in Atlantic Canada with 10 per cent support.

May, however, is not as popular as her provincial counterparts. David Coon and Peter Bevan-Baker, leaders of the Greens in New Brunswick and P.E.I., respectively, are the most popular party leaders in their provinces, while May scores about as high as Scheer or Singh in popularity.

People's Party Leader Maxime Bernier is seen favourably by only about a tenth of Canadians. (Adrian Wyld/Canadian Press)

She's still doing better than Bernier, though. The runner-up in the 2017 Conservative leadership race is only seen favourably by between nine and 13 per cent of the population, while 32 to 41 per cent have a negative view of the leader of the new People's Party of Canada.

The PPC is hardly registering in the polls, but it does have potential for modest growth. About three to six per cent of Canadians see Bernier as the best person to be prime minister; according to Nanos Research, 11 per cent would consider voting for the PPC. That's still a low ceiling for Bernier's new political vehicle, but it still gives him the potential to change the electoral calculus significantly.

Bernier is only one wild card in what could be a wild year in federal politics. The tone on Parliament Hill has become contentious and nasty, with months still to go before the House dissolves ahead of the election. Singh is seeking a seat in the upcoming byelection in Burnaby South, but is by no means a lock to win it. Inroads by the People's Alliance in New Brunswick and the Coalition Avenir Québec suggest voters are shopping around for alternative options.

A lot can happen in any political year. The next 365 days could be especially unpredictable.

About the Author

 

Éric Grenier

Politics and polls

Éric Grenier is a senior writer and the CBC's polls analyst. He was the founder of ThreeHundredEight.com and has written for The Globe and Mail, Huffington Post Canada, The Hill Times, Le Devoir, and L’actualité.