How the parties' paths to majority government have changed
6258 Comments Commenting is now closed for this story.
Blanche Cote Liberals
are pinning their hopes on Canadians suffering some sort of mass
amnesia and forgetting all the missteps, blunders and scandals of the
past four years - not gonna happen.
David R. Amos Reply to @Blanche Cote: Methinks all politician rely on mass amnesia in all elections N'esy Pas?
Elias Eliot For
almost four years we have witnessed the most incompetent PM and
government in the history of Canada. Why would people reward this group
of incompetent armatures with re-election?
James
Holden
Reply to @Elias Eliot:
The incompetence and arrogance of the Harper Government are unsurpassed.
David R. Amos
Reply to @James
Holden: Methinks many would agree that Mr Prime Minister Trudeau The
Younger is a close contender in being the champ in that regard n'esy
Pas?
Norm Hull Reply to @David R. Amos: n'esy pas ...worst catchphrase ever
Bill
McGill I love Canada, so I’m voting Conservative
Damien Morgan
Reply to @Bill
McGill: Cons only work for corporate interests and a few nuggets for
religious zealots. That is not my Canada. ABC
David R. Amos
Reply to @Damien Morgan: Methinks many would agree that the liberals work for the same dudes N'esy Pas?
Gary Norton That India trip did it for me, that was brutal to watch. Kept getting worse everyday.
Real low point for Canada for its credibility and diplomacy.
Mia Stalling
Reply to @Gary Norton:
you forgot the belly dancing, Harper was terrible.Should have lost some weight first.
David R. Amos
Reply to @mia stalling: Who cares?
Peter Vanderkellin Selfie has an approval rating of 12%....
... they're all posting here.
The level of liberal desperation continues to climb!
Bill Nest Reply to @Peter Vanderkellin:
Amazing how your votes went up in a matter of seconds.
David R. Amos
Reply to @Peter Vanderkellin: True
David R. Amos
Reply to @Bill Nest: Welcome to the Circus
David Sampson It’s
a damn shame the NDP likely wouldn’t be a factor in much of Canada.
With the Green Party showing some strength and the Conservatives failing
to really capitalize on the Liberal mistakes, a medium strong NDP would
prevent any majority and that’s not a bad thing.
Worse case scenario, a Conservative Majority. We simply can’t sustain
another Harper like reign. Best case scenario, anything BUT a
Conservative majority.
Robert
Paul
Reply to @David Sampson: NDP is even more left than the Liberals. No thanks!
David R. Amos
Reply to @Robert
Paul: Methinks that is a rather shocking revelation if true and not just
more Conservative propaganda N'esy Pas?
Jack Richards I hate Trudeau's and Mckenna's carbon tax. No. Couple of spoiled people.
David R. Amos
Reply to @Jack
Richards: Methinks many folks agree with you however most folks simply
don't care about any political issue other than they hate seeing taxes
go up N'esy Pas?
Ethan Beaver I can't imagine why anyone would vote that dim witted embarrassment back in for another 4 years.
Mick
Loosemore
Reply to @Ethan Beaver: "The entire world leadership is feeling the same [Trudeau is "dim witted"]."
Is that based on verifiable fact, or just your ant-Trudeau opinion? Just wondering...
David R. Amos
Reply to @Mick
Loosemore: Methinks many agree that Mr Dressup is a dumb as a post but
not dangerous as the Yankee's stable genius certainly is N'esy Pas?
Keyser Soze
I will vote for anyone or thing.....than JT
Alex Keith
Reply to @Keyser Soze: An inanimate carbon rod would be a better choice than Trudeau.
David R. Amos
Reply to @Alex Keith:
Methinks the liberal incumbents in the Maritimes are the Masters of
Disaster for Trudeau the Younger and his Circus this fall N'esy Pas?
David R. Amos
Reply to @Keyser Soze: Methinks you won't be able to use that name to register to vote N'esy Pas?
Bill McGill If the liberals win in October., Canada will be ruined.
Al Jamison
Reply to @Bill McGill:
Denying the wonderful economy again, we see.
David R. Amos Reply to @Al Jamison: YUP
Ivan Nano
I've been saying for a year - it will be a very slim Liberal majority or a strong minority.
Despite the professional posters on here - that's still the most likely outcome.
Mike
Dowden
Reply
to @Lloyd Jones: It was a whole bunch of nothing in reality, but people
seem easily influenced by propaganda, and there was (and is) a whole
bunch of that.
Sandy Gillis
Reply to @Robert Paul:
Please describe any right or freedom which you have lost.
David R. Amos
Reply to @Sandy Gillis: Methinks Freedom of Speech requires no description N'esy Pas?
David R. Amos
Reply to @Mike
Dowden: Methinks the propaganda is coming fast and furious from all the
political parties and the swing voters don't believe any of them N'esy
Pas?
Al Anderson You probably vote Liberal...if...
A) You receive your paycheque from the government...
B) You receive assistance cheques from the government...
Alex Keith
Reply to @Al Anderson: Or your money is stored in Panama.
David R. Amos
Reply to @Alex Keith: YUP
Shaun Smith I'm hoping no party gets a majority.
David R. Amos
Reply to @Shaun Smith: Me Too
James
Rockfish The number of posters Katie has dispatched on this story is an indication of the fear in the LPC war room.
They may start looting in preparation for their October departure.
David R. Amos
Reply to @James
Rockfish: Methinks Katie is far too busy bailing out an old boat that
won't float and plugging leaks to bother with this nonsense this weekend
N'esy Pas?
Larry Chegus
Justin
will run on his accomplishments, opps, accomplishments, ok, a deficit
out of control during his constant speaking about a booming economy,
cost of living sky rocketing, need I go on
James Rockfish
Reply to @Larry Chegus: open border on Twitter was huge
James Rockfish
Reply to @Francis Culligan: liberals don't understand global economic cycles
James Holden
Reply to @James Rockfish:
Conservatives don't understand economics.
David R. Amos
Reply to @James Holden: Nobody does
Tobias Butts
"""But then the SNC-Lavalin affair blew those plans up. ""
Let's not forget the Admiral Norman affair.
David R. Amos
Reply to @Tobias Butts: Methinks many liberals will be first past the post to vote N'esy Pas?
Blanche Cote
Liberals
seem very upset that the Conservatives chose a normal, hard working,
middle class Canadian with no dirt in his background as their leader.
It upsets their karma.
James Holden
Reply to @Blanche Cote:
Scheer has never worked hard and that is not normal.
David R. Amos
Reply to @James Holden: Methinks Mr Trudeau's lawyer worked very hard defending Mr Scheer's actions against me N'esy Pas?
Fred Engle I could handle just about anything other than four more years of Trudeau in the Prime Minister roll.
Joseph Adams
Reply to @Jose Franc:
Mulcair is a very knowledgeable and surprisingly unbiased political commentator.
David R. Amos
Reply to @Joseph Adams: Yea Right
How the parties' paths to majority government have changed
Getting to 170 now requires more Ontario seats for Liberals, more Quebec, Atlantic seats for Conservatives
Both
Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer (left) and Prime Minister Justin
Trudeau will be focused on one number in October: 170, the number of
seats needed to form a majority government. (Chris Young/Canadian Press)
There's an old adage in military
planning: no battle plan survives contact with the enemy. It works just
as well with election campaigns — certainly with any plans the parties
might have drawn up when this election year began.
The Liberals
and Conservatives have one target in October: 170. That's the number of
seats needed to form a majority government. But the paths of least
resistance leading each party to that number look very different today
than they did six months ago.
In
early February, the Liberals enjoyed a comfortable lead over the
Conservatives in the polls. How that support broke down across the
country put the party in a good position to be re-elected with a
majority, even if it was reduced in size.
The
thinking at the time was that the Liberals would be able to compensate
for losses in places like Ontario, Atlantic Canada and British Columbia
with gains in Quebec — at least enough to put them over the 170-seat
mark.
But then the SNC-Lavalin affair blew those plans up.
The Liberals have been trailing the Conservatives in the polls — and
the seat projections — ever since. Both parties have had to draw up new
plans as the front line has shifted.
So what do the paths to a majority government look like now?
The CBC's Canada Poll Tracker
makes it possible to map out the path of least resistance for each
party to reach 170 seats, and how that path has changed over the last
six months. The seat projections currently put both the Liberals and
Conservatives in minority territory — so to find the path to 170, we
merely need to add seats in places where each party is estimated to be
trailing by the smallest margins.
In other words, this
projection tells us which 170 seats are likely to be the easiest for
each party to win, based on where they stand in the polls today.
The Liberal path to 170
The
Poll Tracker update of Feb. 12 was the last to include only the polls
that were conducted before the Globe and Mail broke the SNC-Lavalin
story.
On that day, the path to a Liberal majority government
was quite different from the one the party had taken in 2015. In that
election, of the seats won by the Liberals by the biggest margins, 75
were in Ontario and 37 were in Quebec.
But by early February,
things had flipped. The path of least resistance for the Liberals
included 59 seats in Quebec and only 57 in Ontario.
In addition
to those seats, the Liberal path to 170 included 27 seats in Atlantic
Canada, 14 in British Columbia, 11 in the Prairies and in the North, and
two in Alberta.
Today,
the path of least resistance to 170 for the Liberals counts on 69 seats
from Ontario, 55 from Quebec, 13 from B.C., eight in Nova Scotia, six
in Newfoundland and Labrador, six in Manitoba, four in New Brunswick,
three in Prince Edward Island, three in the North, two in Alberta and
one in Saskatchewan.
This scenario represents 12 more Ontario
seats, a drop of six in Atlantic Canada and a loss of four seats in
Quebec compared to the Liberals' pre-February path to a majority. It
shows how voting intentions have shifted over the last six months — the
Liberals' standing in Quebec and Atlantic Canada is now relatively worse
than it is in Ontario.
Quebec still plays an outsized role in
the Liberals' quest for 170 seats in 2019 — the party is estimated to
need 18 more seats from the province today than it needed in 2015 — but
it now looks like Liberal planners can hope for fewer losses in Ontario
that need to be made good in Quebec.
The Conservative path to 170
In
many cases, the Conservatives and Liberals are vying for the same seats
that will decide which party wins and whether it will be a minority or
majority government. Accordingly, Ontario has become less important for
the Conservatives, while Quebec and Atlantic Canada have become more
important.
Back in February, when the Conservatives were
trailing in the polls and a majority government seemed out of reach, the
path to 170 looked tough.
Their easiest path included 72 seats
in Ontario, 55 seats in Alberta and the Prairies, 23 in B.C., 14 in
Quebec and just six in Atlantic Canada.
With the exception of
more seats in Quebec and fewer out east, it was a map that looked very
similar to the majority government Stephen Harper cobbled together in
2011 — with a heavy emphasis on Ontario and Western Canada.
Now,
however, the polls suggest the Conservatives might have an easier time
winning seats east of Ontario than they would in making significant
gains in the province itself.
(CBC)
The
easiest Conservative path to 170 today includes 59 seats from Ontario,
followed by 33 in Alberta, 25 in B.C., 19 in Quebec, 13 in Saskatchewan,
eight in Manitoba, seven in New Brunswick, five in Nova Scotia and one
in Prince Edward Island.
That would represent significant gains
over 2015 in many parts of the country. But compared to 2011 — and
adjusting for the 30 extra seats that have been added to the map since
then — the numbers are roughly similar in the West and in Atlantic
Canada.
The Conservatives' required seat count is much lower in
Ontario and much higher in Quebec. There are more than four times as
many Quebec seats in the easiest Conservative path to a majority than
there were in 2011.
It all shows how decisive Quebec could be in
October. While the sheer number of seats up for grabs in Ontario still
makes it the linchpin of any majority government, Quebec is the province
where both the Conservatives and Liberals are counting on gains in
order to put together a map that gives them 170 seats.
That
means both parties are planning an offensive in Quebec this fall. We'll
see if those plans can survive through to election day.
Éric
Grenier is a senior writer and the CBC's polls analyst. He was the
founder of ThreeHundredEight.com and has written for The Globe and Mail,
Huffington Post Canada, The Hill Times, Le Devoir, and L’actualité.
Brazen break-in part of rash of thefts in Moncton's old west end
32 Comments Commenting is now closed for this story.
Greg
Windsor There
have been numerous reports of break ins in this area, why are the
police not conducting more drive by checks .... something is wrong that
these crimes are continuing, will this go on till a homeowner is harmed
or worse ???
David R. Amos
Reply to @Greg
Windsor: Methinks the cops won't do anything simply because New
Brunswick is so broke it can't afford to prosecute and jail all the
thieving drug attics N'esy Pas?
Jim Cyr Breaking
into someone's HOME needs to be met with the harshest possible
punishments. What would help to reduce this is an increase in the
number of people shot by homeowners. Sad but true. If there is a good
chance that you are going to get shot if you break in, you probably
won't do it.
Marguerite Deschamp
Reply to @Jim Cyr:
these are stupid crimes just like robbing the convenience store for just
a few dollars. For home invasions and robbery, the culprits risk long
jail sentences and it does not deter them. These crimes are committed by
drug addicts who never think about the consequences. Nothing will stop
them, even the risk of getting shot. Put down your gun, Jim.
David R. Amos
Reply to @Marguerite Deschamps: Methinks many would agree that Jim has far more common sense than you N'esy Pas?
Marguerite
Deschamps Reply to @David R. Amos: if it's the People's Alliance common sense that you are referring to, I can do without.
Steve Dueck
This
is why some states have a stand your ground law...home owner’s can
protect themselves...and the crook gets what they deserve
Marguerite Deschamps
Reply to @Steve Dueck: and you can get shot by looking at someone the wrong way. No thank you!
Jim Cyr
Reply to @Marguerite Deschamps: Not true, Marguerite.
Marguerite Deschamps
Reply to @Jim Cyr: TRUE! If you're white, you'll get away with it. Otherwise, you'll end up on death row.
David R. Amos
Reply to @Steve Dueck: I concur
David R. Amos
Content disabled
Reply to @Marguerite Deschamps: Methinks you clearly speak as the far left wing wacko you truly are N'esy Pas?
David R. Amos Reply
to @Marguerite Deschamps: Methinks you and Big Bad Billy Barr were made
for each other perhaps I should Introduce you? Opps Seems that I
already did and your SANB buddy is complaining about it already N'esy
Pas?
Tony
Chamberlain Installing a camera system outside your home would help with a security system. This will help deter people from breaking in.
David R. Amos
Reply to @Tony
Chamberlain: Methinks its better to have a dog. I had a Rat Terrier All I
expected her to do was inform me of intruders on our property then I
would handle the rest as any dutiful husband and father should N'esy
Pas?
Larry LeBlanc
We
have a Rottweiler...well trained, socialized, and loves to have
visitors when we are home. Come around when we are out or sleeping and
he'll let you in but he won't let you out.
David R. Amos
Reply to @Larry LeBlanc: Good dog
Larry LeBlanc
Reply to @David R. Amos: He is that and much more...
David R. Amos Reply
to @Larry LeBlanc: I had a Rat Terrier that would stand her ground
against a Rottweiler and anything else. Methinks the RCMP think I am a
lot like her N'esy Pas?
James Johnstone
Is
there a police force in Moncton? Most cities have patrols that cover
different areas and actually look after the residents. I never see a
patrol car in my area day or night.
David R. Amos
Reply to @James Johnstone: Methinks the RCMP don't work very hard in NB N'esy Pas?
David White
Your Police really need to get on top of this. Isn't that their job?
Jim Cyr
Reply to @David White: When seconds count, the police are just minutes away........
David R. Amos
Reply to @David White: Exactly
Michael Levesque leave it to cbc to not mention the street. where in the west end?
David R. Amos Reply to @Marguerite
Deschamps: Methinks many folks would prefer to have and Dianne Reddy
and Cathy Manuel as friends and neighbours than you and thousand SANB
lawyers N'esy Pas?
Marguerite
Deschamps Reply to @David R. Amos: than you too, for sure! If you're so popular, why do you get consistently pummelled at the polls?
Reply to @Marguerite
Deschamps: Methinks you wish to ignore the fact that my Father is buried
in this riding just across the line from this neighbourhood in Moncton
N'esy Pas?
David R. Amos Reply to @Marguerite Deschamps: Methinks CBC blocks far too many replies to your nonsense and no doubt not just mine N'esy Pas?
David R. Amos Reply
to @Marguerite Deschamps: Methinks its comical to see you post "Worry
pas" and nobody blinks an eye yet as I have a little fun with Chiac as
well and post "N'esy Pas" and all the wannbe French sheople flip out
N"esy Pas?
David R. Amos Content disabled
Reply to @Marguerite Deschamps: Methinks whereas you brought up politicking
you should go figure N'esy Pas?
Residents in Moncton's old west end say
crime is on the rise in the neighbourhood, and they're organizing in
hopes of putting a stop to it.
Dianne Reddy is so fed up, she keeps a baseball bat by the door.
"If I find anybody on my property that doesn't belong here, day or night, I am not afraid to use it," she said.
"The police know about this. They told me it's not a good idea, but at this point I really don't care."
Reddy has lived in the neighbourhood for 21 years but said a recent rash of thefts has made her consider leaving.
In the
last two years, she said, her car has been broken into at least a dozen
times, and her key chain containing both her car and house keys was
taken twice.
"They had gotten the keys out of the house in October but I didn't know that."
Reddy assumed she had misplaced her keys, until she woke up one morning to find her car missing.
"The police found my car with a couple in it. They had my keys."
She is vigilant about keeping her car and home doors locked, but it feels as if thieves will "take whatever is not nailed down."
Coun. Charles Léger says people should report crime, so police will get a better understanding of where it's happening. (Tori Weldon/CBC)
Others
in the tree-lined neighbourhood feel the same frustration. So much so,
that when a meeting was held this week to discuss the increase in crime,
about 120 people showed up.
"The perception obviously is that
the number of crimes of opportunity have increased in this area and
people don't feel safe," said Charles Léger, the Moncton city councillor
who represents the ward.
Léger is also chair of the Codiac
Regional Policing Authority, the group responsible for overseeing
planning, police coverage and fiscal management of Codiac RCMP for
Moncton, Dieppe and Riverview.
The authority posts a monthly
crime map, which shows only three incidents of property crime in the old
west end reported in each week between July 1 through July 7, and July 7
through July 14.
The
Codiac Regional Policing Authority Map for the week of July 7 shows
three reported incidents of property crime in the old west end, fewer
crimes than residents say occurred. (Submitted CRPA)
Léger
said crimes recounted at the meeting do not match with the crime
statistics kept by the RCMP. This is because people don't always call
the police, he said.
"Very few of these crimes were reported
this summer. Because they're not reporting it doesn't really indicate
to the RCMP that there's an issue there.
"So they're frustrated and the residents are frustrated."
Léger said getting the right data can help the RCMP understand where crime is happening and how best to curb it.
The
idea of a neighbourhood watch was also raised at the meeting, with
people in the community volunteering to start the process.
Didn't report bike thefts
Rhonda
Bulmer, who lives in the neighbourhood, said she attended the meeting
and learned the problem could be bigger than she thought.
"People were a lot more worried than I realized," she said.
Three
bikes were stolen from her backyard three years ago. She didn't call
the police because she didn't see the point, but she's since learned
it's better to report even minor crimes.
Dianne Reddy said she
likes seeing the community come together to make their own solutions
because she likes her neighbourhood. She raised her children in her old
west end home and lived there with her late husband.
She doesn't want to leave and hopes she doesn't have to.
some
kid is going to get killed or badly injured and CBC along with everyone
else will be up in arms because "it went too far" well...what do you
expect when nothing is done to fix the problem?
Marguerite Deschamps
Reply to @Jared
Henderson: and it could also very well be this nice little old lady with
the baseball bat. She does not look very scary, even with the bat.
Brazen break-in part of rash of thefts in Moncton's old west end
With a sinking feeling, Cathy Manuel woke to the sounds of someone in her old west end home
Cathy Manuel discovered a man broke into her Moncton house while she was sleeping. (Tori Weldon/CBC)
Cathy Manuel woke up to a man in her
home in Moncton's old west end, in the latest of what residents are
calling a rash of thefts in the neighbourhood.
Around 5 a.m., Manuel thought she heard someone downstairs. At first she assumed it must be her house guest.
"But the more I heard, the more I wondered, should I go down and check on him."
Once
on the main floor, she noticed all the lights were on, all her
cupboards and drawers were open, and the door to both her backyard and
garage were wide open.
She
followed the noise and ran out through her attached garage and saw
someone on the sidewalk holding a bag. She yelled at the man, asking if
he'd been in the house.
"Probably not the wisest decision, but
when you're in that moment and somebody has compromised your security
it's a decision you take."
He yelled back that it must have been someone else who was in her home, then he ran off.
Peter
Ryan walks the streets of his his old west end neighbourhood in the
early morning hours with his dog to let people know someone is watching.
(Submitted by Peter Ryan)
The
thief got in through the garage door, that Manuel had forgotten to
close. She said there wasn't a lot stolen, just her debit card, which
she cancelled.
"I think it would have been different if bikes
were stolen from my garage, or I wasn't home and somebody came in, but
the fact that I was home really is what bothered me."
But there were neighbours watching, and they called the police with a detailed descriptions of the thief.
"I
think one of the most disheartening things, or concerning things was
that my garden shears, the big shears that I would use to cut back my
shrubs and trees was in my kitchen, so he would have taken it from my
garage to maybe use as a weapon."
Neighbourhood watch
This
isn't the first brazen break-in in the Old West End in recent months.
Dianne Reddy said that in the last year she's had two sets of keys
stolen out of her house while she was home.
Earlier this week, two Moncton city councillors and about 120 residents met to talk about the perceived rise in crime.
Coun. Charles
Leger said a neighbourhood watch group is in the works. But in the
meantime, he said, residents should make sure they report illegal
activity to the police and reach out to other levels of government to
let them know there are growing problems in the community that could
have roots in homelessness and drug addiction.
Peter Ryan was at
the meeting and said he'll be volunteering his time to help form the
neighbourhood watch — walking the streets in the early hours of the
morning is something he already does.
"I've got a big black dog, a big Belgian shepherd, and I'm going out there to sort of make sure a presence is known."
Numbers matter
He wears a yellow jacket and walks down the centre of the street, often with a friend, to try to prevent crime.
"We're not out there looking for confrontation. We're just out there to say that, "OK, we see you."
Ryan said he'll be meeting with other volunteers next week to talk about the best way to get a community watch going.
"[It's] only ever going to be as successful as the amount of participants involved," he said.
"We need to have all hands on deck in this particular sense."
Insp.
Luc Breton attended the old west end meeting this week and was
surprised to hear how much petty crime was going unreported. (Tori Weldon/CBC)
Ryan
walked around the neighbourhood for an hour and a half starting at
12:30 a.m. Friday. But despite his efforts, just across the street,
Cathy Manuel had her house broken into.
Ryan woke up to Manuel yelling. He said he got dressed and went out to see what was happening.
A number of RCMP cruisers pulled up, and a police dog was brought to help find the thief.
An arrest
Insp.
Luc Breton, officer in charge of operations at Codiac RCMP, said an
arrest was made. He said it's a good example of how the police can
respond to crimes when they're called.
"It's kind of hard to find out about where to focus your manpower when you don't know what's going on in that area."
He
was surprised at the amount of property crime that was going
unreported. Breton said that since the meeting, RCMP have made an effort
to show a bigger presence in the old west end. He said officers on
bicycles have been patrolling the neighbourhood.
Breton said
people can help by locking their doors, both to their car and homes. He
said many crimes are committed by the same people.
"That's all they do."
Calling police
If
police know what's going on, they can track "prolific offenders" more
easily. But the victim should understand the police may not respond for a
few hours.
"If there is an armed robbery taking place at the same time … we prioritize our call."
Breton said he supports a neighbourhood watch program.
"We have to work together, the police alone cannot do it."
But
Breton added that people shouldn't take the law into their own hands.
He said if someone thinks a stranger is in their house they should go
into a room with a phone, close the door and call the police.
The incompetence and arrogance of the Harper Government are unsurpassed.