How the parties' paths to majority government have changed
6258 Comments Commenting is now closed for this story.
Blanche Cote Liberals
are pinning their hopes on Canadians suffering some sort of mass
amnesia and forgetting all the missteps, blunders and scandals of the
past four years - not gonna happen.
David R. Amos Reply to @Blanche Cote: Methinks all politician rely on mass amnesia in all elections N'esy Pas?
Elias Eliot For
almost four years we have witnessed the most incompetent PM and
government in the history of Canada. Why would people reward this group
of incompetent armatures with re-election?
James
Holden
Reply to @Elias Eliot:
The incompetence and arrogance of the Harper Government are unsurpassed.
David R. Amos
Reply to @James
Holden: Methinks many would agree that Mr Prime Minister Trudeau The
Younger is a close contender in being the champ in that regard n'esy
Pas?
Norm Hull Reply to @David R. Amos: n'esy pas ...worst catchphrase ever
Bill
McGill I love Canada, so I’m voting Conservative
Damien Morgan
Reply to @Bill
McGill: Cons only work for corporate interests and a few nuggets for
religious zealots. That is not my Canada. ABC
David R. Amos
Reply to @Damien Morgan: Methinks many would agree that the liberals work for the same dudes N'esy Pas?
Gary Norton That India trip did it for me, that was brutal to watch. Kept getting worse everyday.
Real low point for Canada for its credibility and diplomacy.
Mia Stalling
Reply to @Gary Norton:
you forgot the belly dancing, Harper was terrible.Should have lost some weight first.
David R. Amos
Reply to @mia stalling: Who cares?
Peter Vanderkellin Selfie has an approval rating of 12%....
... they're all posting here.
The level of liberal desperation continues to climb!
Bill Nest Reply to @Peter Vanderkellin:
Amazing how your votes went up in a matter of seconds.
David R. Amos
Reply to @Peter Vanderkellin: True
David R. Amos
Reply to @Bill Nest: Welcome to the Circus
David Sampson It’s
a damn shame the NDP likely wouldn’t be a factor in much of Canada.
With the Green Party showing some strength and the Conservatives failing
to really capitalize on the Liberal mistakes, a medium strong NDP would
prevent any majority and that’s not a bad thing.
Worse case scenario, a Conservative Majority. We simply can’t sustain
another Harper like reign. Best case scenario, anything BUT a
Conservative majority.
Robert
Paul
Reply to @David Sampson: NDP is even more left than the Liberals. No thanks!
David R. Amos
Reply to @Robert
Paul: Methinks that is a rather shocking revelation if true and not just
more Conservative propaganda N'esy Pas?
Jack Richards I hate Trudeau's and Mckenna's carbon tax. No. Couple of spoiled people.
David R. Amos
Reply to @Jack
Richards: Methinks many folks agree with you however most folks simply
don't care about any political issue other than they hate seeing taxes
go up N'esy Pas?
Ethan Beaver I can't imagine why anyone would vote that dim witted embarrassment back in for another 4 years.
Mick
Loosemore
Reply to @Ethan Beaver: "The entire world leadership is feeling the same [Trudeau is "dim witted"]."
Is that based on verifiable fact, or just your ant-Trudeau opinion? Just wondering...
David R. Amos
Reply to @Mick
Loosemore: Methinks many agree that Mr Dressup is a dumb as a post but
not dangerous as the Yankee's stable genius certainly is N'esy Pas?
Keyser Soze
I will vote for anyone or thing.....than JT
Alex Keith
Reply to @Keyser Soze: An inanimate carbon rod would be a better choice than Trudeau.
David R. Amos
Reply to @Alex Keith:
Methinks the liberal incumbents in the Maritimes are the Masters of
Disaster for Trudeau the Younger and his Circus this fall N'esy Pas?
David R. Amos
Reply to @Keyser Soze: Methinks you won't be able to use that name to register to vote N'esy Pas?
Bill McGill If the liberals win in October., Canada will be ruined.
Al Jamison
Reply to @Bill McGill:
Denying the wonderful economy again, we see.
David R. Amos Reply to @Al Jamison: YUP
Ivan Nano
I've been saying for a year - it will be a very slim Liberal majority or a strong minority.
Despite the professional posters on here - that's still the most likely outcome.
Mike
Dowden
Reply
to @Lloyd Jones: It was a whole bunch of nothing in reality, but people
seem easily influenced by propaganda, and there was (and is) a whole
bunch of that.
Sandy Gillis
Reply to @Robert Paul:
Please describe any right or freedom which you have lost.
David R. Amos
Reply to @Sandy Gillis: Methinks Freedom of Speech requires no description N'esy Pas?
David R. Amos
Reply to @Mike
Dowden: Methinks the propaganda is coming fast and furious from all the
political parties and the swing voters don't believe any of them N'esy
Pas?
Al Anderson You probably vote Liberal...if...
A) You receive your paycheque from the government...
B) You receive assistance cheques from the government...
Alex Keith
Reply to @Al Anderson: Or your money is stored in Panama.
David R. Amos
Reply to @Alex Keith: YUP
Shaun Smith I'm hoping no party gets a majority.
David R. Amos
Reply to @Shaun Smith: Me Too
James
Rockfish The number of posters Katie has dispatched on this story is an indication of the fear in the LPC war room.
They may start looting in preparation for their October departure.
David R. Amos
Reply to @James
Rockfish: Methinks Katie is far too busy bailing out an old boat that
won't float and plugging leaks to bother with this nonsense this weekend
N'esy Pas?
Larry Chegus
Justin
will run on his accomplishments, opps, accomplishments, ok, a deficit
out of control during his constant speaking about a booming economy,
cost of living sky rocketing, need I go on
James Rockfish
Reply to @Larry Chegus: open border on Twitter was huge
James Rockfish
Reply to @Francis Culligan: liberals don't understand global economic cycles
James Holden
Reply to @James Rockfish:
Conservatives don't understand economics.
David R. Amos
Reply to @James Holden: Nobody does
Tobias Butts
"""But then the SNC-Lavalin affair blew those plans up. ""
Let's not forget the Admiral Norman affair.
David R. Amos
Reply to @Tobias Butts: Methinks many liberals will be first past the post to vote N'esy Pas?
Blanche Cote
Liberals
seem very upset that the Conservatives chose a normal, hard working,
middle class Canadian with no dirt in his background as their leader.
It upsets their karma.
James Holden
Reply to @Blanche Cote:
Scheer has never worked hard and that is not normal.
David R. Amos
Reply to @James Holden: Methinks Mr Trudeau's lawyer worked very hard defending Mr Scheer's actions against me N'esy Pas?
Fred Engle I could handle just about anything other than four more years of Trudeau in the Prime Minister roll.
Joseph Adams
Reply to @Jose Franc:
Mulcair is a very knowledgeable and surprisingly unbiased political commentator.
David R. Amos
Reply to @Joseph Adams: Yea Right
How the parties' paths to majority government have changed
Getting to 170 now requires more Ontario seats for Liberals, more Quebec, Atlantic seats for Conservatives
Both
Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer (left) and Prime Minister Justin
Trudeau will be focused on one number in October: 170, the number of
seats needed to form a majority government. (Chris Young/Canadian Press)
There's an old adage in military
planning: no battle plan survives contact with the enemy. It works just
as well with election campaigns — certainly with any plans the parties
might have drawn up when this election year began.
The Liberals
and Conservatives have one target in October: 170. That's the number of
seats needed to form a majority government. But the paths of least
resistance leading each party to that number look very different today
than they did six months ago.
In
early February, the Liberals enjoyed a comfortable lead over the
Conservatives in the polls. How that support broke down across the
country put the party in a good position to be re-elected with a
majority, even if it was reduced in size.
The
thinking at the time was that the Liberals would be able to compensate
for losses in places like Ontario, Atlantic Canada and British Columbia
with gains in Quebec — at least enough to put them over the 170-seat
mark.
But then the SNC-Lavalin affair blew those plans up.
The Liberals have been trailing the Conservatives in the polls — and
the seat projections — ever since. Both parties have had to draw up new
plans as the front line has shifted.
So what do the paths to a majority government look like now?
The CBC's Canada Poll Tracker
makes it possible to map out the path of least resistance for each
party to reach 170 seats, and how that path has changed over the last
six months. The seat projections currently put both the Liberals and
Conservatives in minority territory — so to find the path to 170, we
merely need to add seats in places where each party is estimated to be
trailing by the smallest margins.
In other words, this
projection tells us which 170 seats are likely to be the easiest for
each party to win, based on where they stand in the polls today.
The Liberal path to 170
The
Poll Tracker update of Feb. 12 was the last to include only the polls
that were conducted before the Globe and Mail broke the SNC-Lavalin
story.
On that day, the path to a Liberal majority government
was quite different from the one the party had taken in 2015. In that
election, of the seats won by the Liberals by the biggest margins, 75
were in Ontario and 37 were in Quebec.
But by early February,
things had flipped. The path of least resistance for the Liberals
included 59 seats in Quebec and only 57 in Ontario.
In addition
to those seats, the Liberal path to 170 included 27 seats in Atlantic
Canada, 14 in British Columbia, 11 in the Prairies and in the North, and
two in Alberta.
Today,
the path of least resistance to 170 for the Liberals counts on 69 seats
from Ontario, 55 from Quebec, 13 from B.C., eight in Nova Scotia, six
in Newfoundland and Labrador, six in Manitoba, four in New Brunswick,
three in Prince Edward Island, three in the North, two in Alberta and
one in Saskatchewan.
This scenario represents 12 more Ontario
seats, a drop of six in Atlantic Canada and a loss of four seats in
Quebec compared to the Liberals' pre-February path to a majority. It
shows how voting intentions have shifted over the last six months — the
Liberals' standing in Quebec and Atlantic Canada is now relatively worse
than it is in Ontario.
Quebec still plays an outsized role in
the Liberals' quest for 170 seats in 2019 — the party is estimated to
need 18 more seats from the province today than it needed in 2015 — but
it now looks like Liberal planners can hope for fewer losses in Ontario
that need to be made good in Quebec.
The Conservative path to 170
In
many cases, the Conservatives and Liberals are vying for the same seats
that will decide which party wins and whether it will be a minority or
majority government. Accordingly, Ontario has become less important for
the Conservatives, while Quebec and Atlantic Canada have become more
important.
Back in February, when the Conservatives were
trailing in the polls and a majority government seemed out of reach, the
path to 170 looked tough.
Their easiest path included 72 seats
in Ontario, 55 seats in Alberta and the Prairies, 23 in B.C., 14 in
Quebec and just six in Atlantic Canada.
With the exception of
more seats in Quebec and fewer out east, it was a map that looked very
similar to the majority government Stephen Harper cobbled together in
2011 — with a heavy emphasis on Ontario and Western Canada.
Now,
however, the polls suggest the Conservatives might have an easier time
winning seats east of Ontario than they would in making significant
gains in the province itself.
(CBC)
The
easiest Conservative path to 170 today includes 59 seats from Ontario,
followed by 33 in Alberta, 25 in B.C., 19 in Quebec, 13 in Saskatchewan,
eight in Manitoba, seven in New Brunswick, five in Nova Scotia and one
in Prince Edward Island.
That would represent significant gains
over 2015 in many parts of the country. But compared to 2011 — and
adjusting for the 30 extra seats that have been added to the map since
then — the numbers are roughly similar in the West and in Atlantic
Canada.
The Conservatives' required seat count is much lower in
Ontario and much higher in Quebec. There are more than four times as
many Quebec seats in the easiest Conservative path to a majority than
there were in 2011.
It all shows how decisive Quebec could be in
October. While the sheer number of seats up for grabs in Ontario still
makes it the linchpin of any majority government, Quebec is the province
where both the Conservatives and Liberals are counting on gains in
order to put together a map that gives them 170 seats.
That
means both parties are planning an offensive in Quebec this fall. We'll
see if those plans can survive through to election day.
Éric
Grenier is a senior writer and the CBC's polls analyst. He was the
founder of ThreeHundredEight.com and has written for The Globe and Mail,
Huffington Post Canada, The Hill Times, Le Devoir, and L’actualité.
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