New Brunswick surplus hit $1 billion last year, new figures show
All-time record latest example of PC government underestimating black ink
New Brunswick's budget surplus exploded to more than $1 billion last year, even higher than the already massive figure put out by the Higgs government back in March.
Final audited financial statements for fiscal 2022-23, released Wednesday, show a surplus of $1.01 billion.
And with the province on track for another big surplus this year, Finance Minister Ernie Steeves is suggesting he'll unveil new "affordability measures" to help New Brunswickers in coming weeks — including possible tax cuts.
"It's good news. We just have to run it by cabinet," he said.
"We figure on using a number of different options as we have in the past, but yeah, I like tax cuts. I like to have that money in my pocket, rather than in the government's pockets, personally, and I'm sure everybody else does too."
A
graph from the report shows a widening gap each year between what the
government forecasts in its budget and what actually happens. (Budget report)
Tax cuts, or other spending to help New Brunswickers dealing with inflation, could even be announced before the next quarterly fiscal update in November, Steeves said — timing that lines up with a potential early election call.
Premier Blaine Higgs has refused to rule out triggering a campaign this fall, ahead of the scheduled October 2024 date.
Steeves told reporters he has no idea if that will happen, but pointed out the $1 billion surplus was not crafted for political gain.
"This was last year's numbers. It ended March 31. So we certainly weren't thinking about any election then," he said.
Steeves put last year's surplus figure at $862.2 million when he released his budget for the current year in March.
But he said in a statement Wednesday the government spent $112 million less than it expected and brought in $38 million more in revenue than expected at the time it put out the lower number.
Because the fiscal year ended March 31, the $1 billion can't be spent now.
But the Progressive Conservative government is already on track to exceed its surplus projection in the current 2023-24 year, too.
Steeves projected a $40.3 million surplus in his budget in March.
He warned at the time that "oddities" had contributed to the big surpluses of the previous year, and "you can't count on things staying status quo" this year.
But by August, figures showed the province was in fact on track for a $199.6 million surplus by March 2024.
The 2021-22 surplus was $777.3 million, itself an all-time record at the time.
The three years of underestimated surpluses are a point of pride for the Higgs government, which cites them as proof of sound fiscal management.
But they have become a potential political liability as Premier Blaine Higgs hints at a snap election this fall.
René
Legacy, the Liberal MLA for Bathurst West-Beresford, says there's a lot
of room to pay down debt while cutting taxes and spending more on
surpluses. (Jacques Poitras/CBC)
Critics continue to demand the PCs spent some of that flood of revenue in areas like housing, health care and inflation relief.
"These are huge amounts and they should allow them to start thinking about getting some program money out to the ones who are asking for it," said Liberal finance critic René Legacy.
The Bathurst-area MLA said his party isn't advocating returning to deficits but with a huge surplus, "there's a lot of room" to pay down debt while cutting taxes and spending more on surpluses.
"We're not seeing that impetus to get that money out there and start acting like a province that is growing. … It's time to act with a little bit of confidence and get the help out there that I think some areas desperately need."
Green Party Leader David Coon says there is a 'crying need' for investment in public services. (Jacques Poitras/CBC)
Green leader David Coon said the government shouldn't be contemplating any tax cuts with so much need for spending.
He said one of his constituents recently spent 19 hours in a hospital emergency department waiting to get care.
"There is a crying need for investment in our public services across the board," Coon said.
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He warned at the time that "oddities" had contributed to the big surpluses of the previous year, and "you can't count on things staying status quo" this year.
"I'm actually proud of our budgets that we did. So I hope as a party we can move on. There's some reconciliation that needs to be done. We have to talk as a group," he said.
He told reporters that if the premier visits Lt.-Gov. Brenda Murphy and asked her to dissolve the house, she should instead ask the PC caucus if another of its members could take over and lead a government with majority support in the legislature.
Cardy acknowledged that move, while possible in the parliamentary system, is rare but not out of the question.
"The lieutenant-governor's job is to ascertain whether there's anybody else who can command the majority of the house," he said.
"I'm saying there are very clearly people who could do that job. The premier has shown today he can't even command his own caucus, his own cabinet."
"With the encouragement of many colleagues and people from across this province, I am confirming my intention to remain as leader and to reoffer in the next provincial election."
Higgs cited the province's economic and population growth during his time as premier and said it was important to "continue to build on this momentum."
The next election is scheduled for Oct. 21, 2024, though Higgs's statement didn't mention that date and did not rule out an earlier campaign.
He told reporters that a recent rebellion by six MLAs in his caucus "remains a big concern." Those members will be in a position to delay legislation when the legislature reconvenes in October.
Reply to David Amos
Six ministers and two backbench MLAs refused to attend the morning sitting of the legislature "as a way to express our extreme disappointment in a lack of process and transparency," they said in a statement.
- immediate and sustainable improvements in our healthcare system
- low income housing (another immediate priority)
- a 2-3% reduction in our provincial sales tax
and, perhaps Mr. Fitch could stop the political games and pay Mr. Amos the money he is owed (with interest and an apology).
Daniel Allain says parties that try to make an election about a single issue rarely succeed because voters often decide for themselves that other subjects matter more to them.
"I lived an election in 2014 on one issue, one subject. It's hard to stay on that subject for 30 days," he said, referring to a PC re-election campaign urging voters to "Say Yes" to shale gas development.
"Voters want to know about more than one issue," said Allain, who was an adviser to then-premier David Alward in 2014.
"After two weeks people were agreeing with us. However, the last two weeks, we couldn't pivot onto something else."
The Liberals went on to win that election.
Premier Higgs waded into a crowd about 250 people on the front lawn of the legislature last week, shaking hands with people carrying signs denouncing sex education and LGBTQ rights. (Ed Hunter/CBC)
Allain noted the Manitoba PC government is now campaigning for re-election after promising a Policy 713-like initiative, "and I don't think the PCs are doing that good."
Premier Blaine Higgs has hinted he may call an election before the scheduled October 2024 date because of dissent in his caucus triggered by his government's changes to Policy 713
Well you can say what you want about Ernie, but he still has the jokes.
N.B. education minister defends not greeting counter-protesters
Bill Hogan also says sexual education curriculum in schools will be reviewed
Hogan met protesters on the lawn of the New Brunswick legislature, but he and Premier Blaine Higgs did not cross the street to where counter-protesters had gathered in support of LGBTQ rights and inclusive education policies.
Higgs, in particular, has been criticized for shaking hands with protesters while not talking to nearby counter-protesters, many concerned about Hogan's changes to Policy 713, about gender identity.
The changes require teachers to get parents' consent before using the chosen pronoun or name of a student under 16.
Protesters expressed support for the changes, citing what they called "parental rights." But critics and researchers say the term "parental rights" is a misnomer because it doesn't address the concerns of LGBTQ parents or parents of LGBTQ children.
On Wednesday in Saint John, after announcing a new school for the city's north end, Hogan was asked about the safety of LGBTQ students in schools after the changes and the summer of debate about them.
Hogan told reporters he believes students are safe, but some "pretty ugly things" have happened that he "doesn't support personally."
When asked what he meant by this, he said he was on the lawn of the legislature during the protest and was advised by security not to cross the street to see counter-protesters because it seemed the "temperature was pretty hot."
Hogan
greeted protesters last week at a rally in Fredericton where people
carried signs denouncing sex education and LGBTQ policies. (Ed Hunter/CBC)
"It's not my security so much that I worry about it, it's the people that are being paid to make sure that I'm safe. So we didn't go across the street. There's been a lot of hoopla over that."
"It wasn't meant to be a slam or not supporting the LGBTQ community — it was the advice that we were given by security."
Sex ed curriculum review
Hogan also said he will be reviewing the sex education curriculum.
At the protest last week, Hogan said he thinks parents should have the choice of what their children participate in terms of sex education.
Around
250 people gathered last week in in front of the legislature, many
carrying signs denouncing sex education and LGBTQ rights. (Jacques Poitras/CBC)
And on Wednesday, Hogan said his department does plan on providing parents the choice as to whether they'd like their children to participate in the personal wellness part of the curriculum.
According to the online curriculum framework, personal wellness is a subject included in both elementary and middle school learning. In elementary, it includes topics like personal health habits, good work habits, emotional responses, puberty, personal hygiene and appreciation for diversity.
In middle school, the topics include mental health, career pathways, boundaries, justice and injustice, anti-discrimination, healthy sexuality and self-image, reproduction for Grade 6 and sexual health for Grades 7 and 8.
Hogan said the current plan is not to revise the curriculum, but there will be a department meeting about it.
"I've asked that we review the curriculum and make sure that what's being introduced at each age level is appropriate for that developmental age level," said Hogan.
About
100 people supporting LGBTQ rights and inclusive school policies to
protect them held a counter-protest across the street from the
legislature. Hogan says he was advised by security not to cross the
street and greet counter protesters. (Jacques Poitras/CBC)
"I'm pretty sure that it's right on track, but we want to make double sure about that.
"It's the other stuff that gets added in that creates the greatest angst with parents. So we're going to try and keep people using the curriculum and the supporting resources that have been identified for the curriculum."
School location announced
Hogan was in Saint John to announce that a new K-5 school will be built on the former Crescent Valley School property on MacLaren Boulevard. It will replace Hazen White-St. Francis and Centennial schools.
Hogan said the school will cost $6 million to $7 million, and the government will provide $3 million this year to support planning, design and site preparation.
He said construction will begin in the spring. The school is expected to open in September 2026.
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PC MLA warns Higgs that early election call could backfire
Daniel Allain says single-issue 2014 campaign on shale gas led to PC defeat
Daniel Allain says parties that try to make an election about a single issue rarely succeed because voters often decide for themselves that other subjects matter more to them.
"I lived an election in 2014 on one issue, one subject. It's hard to stay on that subject for 30 days," he said, referring to a PC re-election campaign urging voters to "Say Yes" to shale gas development.
"Voters want to know about more than one issue," said Allain, who was an adviser to then-premier David Alward in 2014.
"After two weeks people were agreeing with us. However, the last two weeks, we couldn't pivot onto something else."
The Liberals went on to win that election.
Premier
Higgs waded into a crowd about 250 people on the front lawn of the
legislature last week, shaking hands with people carrying signs
denouncing sex education and LGBTQ rights. (Ed Hunter/CBC)
Allain noted the Manitoba PC government is now campaigning for re-election after promising a Policy 713-like initiative, "and I don't think the PCs are doing that good."
Premier Blaine Higgs has hinted he may call an election before the scheduled October 2024 date because of dissent in his caucus triggered by his government's changes to Policy 713.
Those changes include a requirement that teachers get parental consent before allowing children under 16 to use a new name or pronoun of their choice in classrooms.
The changes are now subject to a court challenge, and Allain says that process should be allowed to go forward.
"Right now New Brunswickers want to talk about inflation, housing and health care."
Marc
Savoie, former president of the PC riding association in Moncton East,
said he resigned because he can't support both his transgender son and
Blaine Higgs. (Gilles Landry/Radio-Canada)
Higgs attended a march last week of New Brunswickers opposed to LGBTQ school policies, which prompted the acting president of the PC riding association in Allain's Moncton East constituency to resign.
Marc Savoie, the father of a transgender son, said he made the decision after Higgs went to the march and chose not to greet counter-protestors supporting LGBTQ rights.
"He never had any intentions of listening to what the other side has to say. His mind is made up," Savoie said.
"I can't support my son and support Blaine Higgs. I don't see those two aligning."
Allain wouldn't comment on Savoie's resignation but said he had been a good volunteer for the party.
Another PC riding association president, Noémie David Gauvin, also recently quit her position over Higgs's stance on Policy 713.
"I find it sad to take a step backwards after we took a few steps forward" with the original policy, she told Radio-Canada.
Seeing Higgs attend last week's march "confirmed I made the right decision by resigning," said Gauvin, who has a transgender brother.
Noémie
David-Gauvin, former president of the Shippagan-Lamèque-Miscou riding
association, said she could no longer support the party following the
premier's position on Policy 713 and the rights of transgender people. (Radio-Canada)
The former local government reform minister was one of six PC MLAs who voted with the opposition Liberals in June on their motion calling for more consultation on Policy 713.
That led Child and Youth Advocate Kelly Lamrock to draft a report that concluded the Higgs changes violate the Charter of Rights and Freedoms, the New Brunswick Human Rights Act and the Education Act.
Four of the rebellious PC MLAs were cabinet ministers. Two later resigned and the premier shuffled the other two to the backbench.
Higgs suggested earlier this month that those six defiant MLAs remain "a big concern" who could jeopardize his ability to pass legislation, a scenario that might affect his thinking on an early election.
Elections N.B. accelerates preparations
In a statement Tuesday, Higgs pointed out the legislature is scheduled to open a new session Oct. 17.
"The question we face is will the focus be on delivering results for New Brunswickers, or will it be 12 months of political drama causing instability and stagnation in government?" he said.
"My focus and responsibility is to the citizens of this province ensuring we continue on our path of demonstrated continuous improvement."
Elections New Brunswick said in a statement Tuesday that based on speculation in media reports, it was accelerating its preparations for the next campaign.
That includes moving the training of new returning officers, originally scheduled for March 2024, to next week.
About
100 people supporting LGBTQ rights and inclusive school policies to
protect them held a counter-protest across the street from the march
last week. Premier Higgs did not walk over to speak with them. (Jacques Poitras/CBC)
Allain said Tuesday he won't vote against the PC budget next March, which if defeated would trigger an election.
"I'm actually proud of our budgets that we did. So I hope as a party we can move on. There's some reconciliation that needs to be done. We have to talk as a group," he said.
"I hope we take that opportunity to do it, because I think New Brunswickers want to see a four-year mandate. Nobody wants an election today. It costs too much."
Whether he would vote against other PC bills would depend on what kind of consultation happens within the entire party caucus.
"There's only one person that can definitely bring the team together," he said, but added that Higgs has not spoken to him since the cabinet shuffle three months ago.
Savoie and Gauvin said they remain PC party members but would not work for the party in a campaign with Higgs as leader.
"I'm not saying I'll never come back but for the moment I can't," Gauvin said. "It would be against my values. I can't support a party whose leader takes that position [on LGBTQ issues]."
Savoie said he's still hopeful the party will return to the moderate political centre after the premier leaves.
"I truly believe it'll happen. In my heart I still believe the vast majority of party members don't see things the way Blaine Higgs does and that keeps me invested in the party," he said.
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doesn't need Policy 713 to get re-elected.
In fact if I were he or anyone of his MLAs
I wouldn't even 'go there'.
Premier Higgs has shown NBers. how important
Fiscal Management is for the well being of
a Province and getting good return on Investment
displays a caring how taxpayers' dollars are spent.
of a person because of Political Stripe.
"Side issues" such as Policy 713 only serve (intentional or otherwise) to divide NB'ers. I see very little in the way of efforts to recognize that NB actually has citizens/voters north of Woodstock and Miramichi.
The "special deals" to Irving continue to be blatantly obvious (as they would also be under the Liberals) and should be eliminated.
Then we have NB Power (the NB albatross), pretty much controlled by Higgs (not good).
The time has come for a new PC leader, asap.
Daniel Allain would be a bring this party back to where it should be.
The NB Liberals still have a 1% chance at a majority and 6% chance at a minority government.
This article is smoke and mirrors.
Your actions say otherwise Mr. Higgs.
He wouldn't get my vote but the opinions from the left regarding the policy are unfortunately a minority. I wish it wasn't but it is.
Hopefully with an election called it will be just a Conservative minority which a minority is best case with any forming government and hopefully with added Green seats.
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