Poilievre won't commit to NATO 2% target, says he's 'inheriting a dumpster fire' budget balance
'I make promises that I can keep and right now we are, our country, is broke,' Conservative leader says
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre says he won't commit to meeting the two per cent NATO defence spending target if he becomes prime minister.
"I make promises that I can keep and right now we are, our country, is broke," Poilievre said. "I'm inheriting a dumpster fire when it comes to the budget.
"Every time I make a financial commitment, I'm going to make sure I've pulled out my calculator and done all the math. People are sick and tired of politicians just announcing that they're going to spend money without figuring out how they're going to pay for it."
Poilievre made the remarks in Montréal after being asked why he hasn't yet committed to the NATO benchmark of spending two per cent of annual GDP on the military.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau promised to reach the target by 2032 at the NATO summit in Washington D.C. on Thursday after facing criticism for lagging behind alliance partners.
Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell met with Trudeau in Washington on Tuesday. After the meeting, McConnell published a post on X: "It's time for our northern ally to invest seriously in the hard power required to help preserve prosperity and security across NATO."
In May, a group of U.S. senators from both major parties sent a letter to Trudeau urging the Liberal government to boost defence spending to the NATO target.
"It's clear now Justin Trudeau is seen as an absolute joke on the world stage," Poilievre said in reaction to allies' criticism of Canada's defence spending.
Poilievre said Thursday his plan to boost defence spending hinges on cutting funding to "dictators, terrorists and multinational bureaucracies."
"I will crack down on corruption, back office bureaucracy and procurement bungles, and I will use the savings from that to reinforce our military," he said.
Poilievre said that a future Conservative government would "buy equipment based on best value, to make our money go further" and would replace the military's "woke culture with a warrior culture" to boost recruitment.
"When the previous Conservative government was in office, we weren't hearing these criticisms. Why? Because we were delivering. It wasn't because we were spending more, it's because we were delivering more," he said.
In fact, between 2012 and 2015 the Conservatives faced substantial criticism for cutting the Department of National Defence budget by $2.7 billion annually in order to reach a balanced budget.
And after the Afghan war, the government of then-prime minister Stephen Harper cancelled or delayed decisions on several high-profile defence programs.
For budgetary reasons, it shelved a decision to buy modern close-combat vehicles for the army and delayed a program to buy replacement anti-aircraft systems for the army. It also put off buying the F-35 stealth fighter after the auditor general and the Parliamentary Budget Office accused the government of not doing enough homework on the purchase.
Canada spends about 1.37 per cent of its GDP on the military and the federal government says it plans to reach 1.76 per cent by the end of the decade.
Since coming to power in 2015, the Trudeau government's military spending as a percentage of GDP has ranged from a low of 1.16 per cent in 2016 to a high of 1.44 in 2017, according to NATO figures.
NATO says that under the last Conservative government, military spending in Canada from 2008 to 2014 ranged from 0.99 per cent of GDP in 2013 to 1.39 per cent in 2009.
The alliance began tracking member nations' defence spending as a percentage of GDP in 1974.
In 1974, Canada spent an estimated 2.4 per cent of its GDP on the military. That placed it second from the bottom among 14 NATO members, ahead of Luxembourg and just behind the Netherlands.
The 1990s and the dissolution of the Soviet Union saw those numbers fall off a cliff. Defence budgets were gutted and Canada was spending about 1.2 per cent of GDP on defence — which is roughly where the defence budget stands today.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
With files from the CBC's Murray Brewster
Trudeau says he has 'full confidence' in Freeland following reports of tensions between PMO and minister
Senior source says Freeland not resonating with voters in the way PMO had hoped
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau offered a firm defence of Chrystia Freeland Thursday following reports of an increasingly tense relationship between his office and the finance minister.
"She has been a close friend, an ally and a partner in doing really big things for Canada, and will continue to be," Trudeau said during his closing news conference from the annual NATO summit in Washington.
"I have full confidence in her abilities and the work we're going to be doing together."
Trudeau's comments came after the Globe and Mail reported that tensions between Freeland and the Prime Minister's Office (PMO) — including Trudeau's chief of staff Katie Telford — are increasing due to the Liberals' recent economic messaging and low approval ratings.
The prime minister was also asked Thursday about rumours of internal discussions about recruiting former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney as finance minister.
"I have been talking with Mark Carney for years now about getting him to join federal politics. I think he'd be an outstanding addition at a time when Canadians need good people to step up in politics," he said.
Despite what Trudeau is saying publicly, CBC News has also learned of tensions behind the scenes.
A senior government source told CBC News that Freeland was not resonating with voters in the way the PMO had hoped. The source added that such tensions are to be expected when the government is facing headwinds.
The government's recent woes have prompted intense discussions among Liberals. The Liberals' unexpected byelection loss in Toronto last month prompted one backbench Liberal MP to publicly call on Trudeau to resign as leader. Other members of caucus have also expressed frustrations in private.
Former
governor of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England Mark Carney speaks
during the Canada 2020 Net-Zero Leadership Summit in Ottawa on
Wednesday, April 19, 2023. (Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press)
Polling has consistently shown the Liberals trailing Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives.
A second senior government source acknowledged the tensions, saying "everyone will be in support of her (Freeland) until they're not."
"That is the way these things roll," the source said.
CBC News is not identifying the sources, as they are not authorized to discuss these matters publicly.
A spokesperson for the PMO insisted there are no tensions with Freeland.
"These assertions are not accurate. The prime minister and his office have full confidence in Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Chrystia Freeland," wrote Ann-Clara Vaillancourt.
"The Deputy Prime Minister has been working tirelessly and effectively to serve Canadians since she was first appointed to cabinet in 2015."
A Liberal MP, who spoke on the condition they not be named, told CBC News they believe the general mood in caucus indicates a desire for change, including to the way the government communicates on issues like affordability. They added the communication problems are not limited to Freeland.
The MP also told CBC they haven't heard from caucus members calling for Freeland to be moved out of finance.
Despite requests from some Liberal MPs to meet over the summer to address the party's faltering fortunes, the party's caucus chair Brenda Shanahan has said a meeting won't be possible until September.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Trudeau says Canada can meet NATO's military spending benchmark by 2032
The Trudeau government has been under increasing pressure from allies to ramp up investments in defence
Following a blizzard of criticism from allies — most notably the United States — the Liberal government announced Thursday that it hopes to meet NATO's military investment benchmark of two per cent of alliance members' gross domestic products by 2032.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made the statement at the close of the alliance's annual summit in Washington — even as he sharply questioned the worthiness of the goal.
"We continually step up and punch above our weight, something that isn't always reflected in the crass mathematical calculation that certain people turn to very quickly," Trudeau said. "Which is why we've always questioned the two per cent as the be-all, end-all of evaluating contributions to NATO."
The timeline was delivered with few details. Trudeau said the goal will be met by investing in new defence capabilities, such as submarines, which are not yet costed or approved.
Multiple western leaders attending this week's NATO summit in Washington have said that all allies need to meet the military investment benchmark in an increasingly volatile world.
NATO has asked each of its 32 members to deliver a plan to meet the two per cent goal, if they haven't already. Twenty-three NATO allies are meeting the two per cent commitment now.
Canada currently sets aside a sum equivalent to 1.3 per cent of its GDP for the military. It has a plan to reach 1.76 per cent by the end of the decade, but NATO, the United States and the Canadian business community have been insisting that the federal government deliver some kind of plan to get to two per cent.
Trudeau met with U.S. lawmakers and representatives of the business community this week. He insisted he faced no pressure either on Capitol Hill or at the summit table.
"It actually hasn't been a political problem this week," he said "It has been a conversation and allies have been pleased to hear that we have a plan and a timeline to get to two per cent."
His message got a mixed response from U.S. lawmakers.
'Shocking and unacceptable'
Sen. Roger Wicker, the highest-ranking Republican on the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee, met with the prime minister and heard his pitch.
Speaking on the floor of the Senate, Wicker acknowledged Canada's timeline and urged Trudeau to meet it.
"It's shocking and unacceptable that some allies, especially some capable ones, have yet to reach the two per cent requirement that they agreed to," Wicker said in reference to last year's NATO summit, where Canada agreed with its allies to make two per cent an enduring commitment.
"Canada is among this group, which has not and for several years in the future will not reach its need."
On Thursday, U.S. Ambassador to Canada David Cohen released a statement saying the Biden administration is pleased to see Canada present a timeline for meeting the target.
The government has committed to a regular cycle of defence reviews. The next one is set for 2028.
"We will continue to explore opportunities that will further increase defence spending and advance Canada's strategic interests," Trudeau said.
The announcement of a timeline without details did not quell criticism of Canada's defence spending — especially now that some allies, notably Poland, are calling for the NATO benchmark to be moved even higher.
Last month, the Business Council of Canada warned the government that it needed to go into the NATO summit with a plan and a clear statement for allies.
On Thursday, the group representing the country's top CEOs said it was disappointed by the lack of detail in the timeline.
"The announcement does not clarify how any new defence investments will be fiscally sustainable," the Business Council of Canada said in a media statement. It also urged the government to meet the benchmark by at least the end of the decade.
"Given the lack of detail, today's announcement is unlikely to address the many frustrations and concerns expressed by leaders this week in Washington D.C.," the statement added.
Officials with the council say Canada's reluctance to spend more on defence than planned comes up repeatedly with American lawmakers when they try to talk with them about business and economic matters.
Time is a factor. If former U.S. president Donald Trump regains the White House in this fall's election, Canada could face even more pressure to step up defence spending.
Elbridge Colby, a prominent Trump supporter who could play a key national security role in a new Republican administration, also criticized the vagueness of the timeline and warned Canada needs to be prepared to go further.
"I think it's progress but inadequate," Colby said in a text message. "We now need to see 2.5 per cent realistically as a baseline. Especially with countries, like Canada, that have dismantled their militaries."
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Canada commits an extra $500M in military assistance as NATO rallies around Ukraine
New military assistance will help expand pilot training as Ukraine receives its first F-16s
Canada plans to commit an additional $500 million in military assistance to Ukraine this year, the federal government said on the sidelines of the NATO Summit.
The announcement, late Wednesday, capped a day where the 32-member alliance clearly felt the political pressure of a war going badly.
NATO delivered long-sought commitments and reassurance, stating in its official declaration the Eastern European country is on an "irreversible" path to membership.
The additional money, on top of the projected $4 billion in arms and munitions Canada has already pledged and donated, came following a bilateral meeting between Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the Washington summit.
The majority of the funding will go toward a NATO-led, 40-billion euro initiative that aims to provide the war-ravaged country with steady financing and predictable military support.
At the same time, Canada said it would expand its training of Ukrainian pilots who are learning to fly Western warplanes.
The federal government had previously committed tens of millions toward the training, but a senior federal official, speaking on background Wednesday, said Canada will play a more active role in the instruction, some of which has been spearheaded by the private sector.
Last winter, Defence Minister Bill Blair — in two separate announcements — committed $75 million, $15 million of which went to pay for civilian pilot instructors from Montreal-based Top Aces Inc.
The U.S., the Netherlands and Denmark announced Wednesday that the first NATO-provided F-16s would be in the hands of Ukrainian military pilots by this summer.
Canada does not operate the U.S.-manufactured warplane, but it is used by Top Aces, a private company that offers a wide range of fighter jet instruction.
Zelenskyy posted on X about his appreciation of the effort to strengthen his air force, coming soon after Ukraine saw one of the deadliest strikes of the war.
Allies wrestled behind closed doors for weeks on the language of the overall summit declaration when it came to Ukraine and its eventual membership.
The U.S. and some other countries have opposed membership for Ukraine during the conflict with Russia to avoid an escalation of tensions that could lead to a larger war. They also have stressed that Ukraine must take significant steps to address corruption as well as other systemic reforms.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg underlined that Ukraine will not join the alliance's ranks immediately. But he insisted that must happen after the war is over to ensure that Russia never attacks Ukraine again.
Of the overall NATO assistance, he said: "We are not doing this because we want to prolong a war. We are doing it because we want to end a war as soon as possible."
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Canada, U.S. and Finland form pact to build icebreakers for Arctic
Canada and the U.S. have been struggling to rebuild their icebreaking fleets
The United States, Canada and Finland have entered into a trilateral pact to build icebreakers for the Arctic region, the three countries said in a joint statement Thursday on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Washington.
The agreement also involves the sharing of expertise, information and capabilities among the partner countries.
"This partnership will strengthen the shipbuilding industries in each nation with the goal of creating good-paying jobs in shipyards, marine equipment manufacturers and many other related services across all three countries," the statement said.
The countries said they are also open to other countries joining them and the utility of the icebreakers is not limited to the Far North.
"In the Arctic, new, faster shipping lanes hold the potential to create new economic opportunities and drive down shipping costs. And in the Antarctic, our partnership can also foster increased scientific research and international collaboration," the statement said.
Both Canada and the United States have been struggling to rebuild their icebreaking fleets, mostly heavy or polar class icebreakers.
The
Davie shipyard in Lévis, Que., was the only company deemed qualified to
build six much-needed icebreakers for the Canadian Coast Guard. (Marc Godbout/Radio-Canada)
Under Canada's National Shipbuilding Strategy, a program was launched more than a decade ago, but the company in charge of the project, Seaspan Shipyards in Vancouver, reported last May that design of the new vessel is only about 70 per cent complete.
Separately, Quebec-based Chantier Davie Canada Inc., a.k.a. Davie Shipbuilding, has been given a contract to design and build a fleet of seven heavy icebreakers, one of them a polar class, and two hybrid-powered ferries under a program that is expected to cost $8.5 billion.
Eight years ago, the Liberal government was warned in a report done for Transport Canada that the country's coast guard fleet was falling apart and desperately in need of new ships.
In January, the U. S. Coast Guard sounded the alarm that it needs new icebreakers as soon as possible. The service said it needs between eight and 10 new icebreakers to replace an aging fleet.
"This is a strategic imperative," a senior American security official said in a background briefing in Washington on Thursday, ahead of the announcement.
"And this will help build out our industrial capacity but also provide benefits to our allies, consistent with the message you've been hearing this week at the NATO summit. There's also a signalling benefit. The ice pact will reinforce the message to Russia and China that the United States and its allies intend" to be present in the polar regions.
Russia has a fleet of 40 icebreakers and more in production, the U.S. official added. China has declared itself a "near Arctic power" and has been engaged in a major program to construct icebreakers.
There was a tacit acknowledgement from the U.S. security official that both Finnish and Canadian expertise in the field of icebreaker design and industrial innovation surpasses that of the United States.
"We intend to scale up our capacity using the expertise and the know-how from Finland and Canada," said the official.
Two Canadian sources with knowledge of the file, who spoke on background, said the Davie shipyard, based in Lévis, Que., is the linchpin of the deal. The company recently completed the purchase of Finland's Helsinki Shipyard Oy, which until the war in Ukraine had been a major supplier for icebreaker hulls for Russia's nuclear-powered fleet. That market disappeared with the imposition of Western sanctions on Moscow.
It has also established an advanced design centre that is developing cutting-edge environmental and ship performance standards.
In a news release on Thursday, Davie said the new pact will mean more efficient, rapid and cost-effective production of much-needed icebreakers.
"While adversaries' shipbuilding industries operate on an effective war footing, Western allies markedly lack sufficient icebreakers and other specialized ships," the release said. "No single nation can solve this challenge alone, but trusted allies with common goals and advanced shipbuilding can."
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Canada confirms plan to replace submarine fleet at NATO summit
The timing of the announcement could be an attempt to blunt criticism of Ottawa's defence spending
Canada definitely plans to move forward with the purchase of new submarines, the federal government announced on the margins of the NATO Summit on Wednesday.
Up to now, the government has spoken only about the possibility of replacing the aging Victoria-class boats. But in the face of mounting criticism of Canada's defence spending by allies — notably the United States — Ottawa has given the proposal the green light.
A senior government official, speaking on background, said they could not confirm how much the plan will cost, how many boats will be purchased or when they will arrive.
The submarine construction program will be separate from the National Shipbuilding Strategy because no shipyards in Canada currently have the capacity or technology to build sophisticated sub-surface vessels.
Defence
Minister Bill Blair says the federal government is reaching out to
shipbuilders as it moves to acquire a new submarine fleet. (The Canadian Press/Adrian Wyld)
Defence Minister Bill Blair announced Wednesday that Canada "is taking the first step towards the procurement of up to 12 conventionally-powered, under-ice capable submarines."
He said the federal government is formally launching the process to find out what submarine builders can offer.
"Through the Canadian Patrol Submarine Project (CPSP), Canada will acquire a larger, modernized submarine fleet to enable the Royal Canadian Navy to covertly detect and deter maritime threats, control our maritime approaches, project power and striking capability further from our shores, and project a persistent deterrent on all three coasts," Blair said in a media statement.
The Department of National Defence is in the process of meeting with manufacturers and potential partners, Blair added.
"A formal Request for Information (RFI) will be posted in fall 2024 to gain further information on the procurement, construction, delivery and operational capabilities of potential bidders who can build submarines for Canada," the minister said.
"This RFI will also seek to gain information which will enable the establishment of a submarine sustainment capability in Canada."
Germany and Norway have pitched Canada on the idea of becoming part of their joint submarine program, which is expected to begin delivering boats by 2026.
South Korea is also interested and has held talks with Canadian officials about buying submarines and setting up a sustainment facility in Canada, a senior defence source said.
Sweden also has reportedly expressed interest.
The Liberal government's recent defence policy, released last spring, promised to "explore options" for new submarines. But since the policy was released, both Blair and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau have insisted that buying new submarines is not a matter of if but of when, and how many.
Today's announcement could be seen as an attempt by the government to blunt criticism of Canada's continued failure to meet NATO's defence spending benchmark of two per cent of GDP.
Canada currently spends 1.37 per cent of its GDP on defence. The new defence policy forecasts spending will rise to 1.76 per cent by the end of the decade.
It's unlikely the submarine program will have an impact on the calculation because the federal government has no idea how much it will spend on the boats, or when.
Canada bought its current fleet of four submarines second-hand from the British in the late 1990s. The Department of National Defence spent hundreds of millions of dollars to bring them up to Canadian standards and it took a number of years to work out all the glitches.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Federal government to offer NATO a 'timeline' for boosting defence spending
Defence Minister Blair isn't committing to giving NATO a detailed plan
Stung by allies' persistent criticism of its defence spending, the federal government is expected to unveil a timeline on Thursday to meet NATO's military investment benchmark of two per cent of alliance members' gross domestic product, a senior Canadian official said.
The official, speaking on background with Canadian journalists on Wednesday, offered nothing specific and would only say that the timeline will be presented at the close of the ongoing NATO leaders' summit in Washington.
The Liberal government has been under rising pressure — internationally and more recently at home — to offer allies some kind of plan for accelerating its defence spending.
Defence Minister Bill Blair, speaking before a NATO forum late Wednesday, wouldn't go as far to say Canada will present a full-fledged plan before leaders adjourn.
Defence Minister Bill Blair says he hopes to present NATO allies with 'a credible and verifiable path' to two per cent. (Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press)
"I'm hoping over the next few days that we'll be able to articulate for our [NATO] colleagues a credible and verifiable path for Canada and the investments we have to make," he said.
In the days before the summit, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau held a series of high-level meetings with the U.S. business community and top lawmakers from both American parties to sound out the depths of American frustration.
The senior Canadian official said Canada's failure to meet the two per cent target has not come up in closed-door NATO meetings so far.
But the topic has been coming up in official Washington circles.
"Canada announced in the last couple days they won't be ponying up," Republican U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson said — unprompted — at a Hudson Institute forum this week.
"They're not going to do their two per cent. Why? They have the safety and security of being on our border and don't have to worry about that. That's shameful. If you're going to be a member nation, you have to do your part."
House Speaker Mike Johnson called Canada's lack of a plan to meet the two per cent benchmark 'shameful.' (Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters)
Johnson did not meet with Trudeau this week.
Republican U.S. Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell did hear the prime minister out and said he was unconvinced.
In a post on X late Tuesday, McConnell said that while shared values and close economic ties have been the basis of the U.S.-Canada relationship, "it's time for our northern ally to invest seriously in the hard power required to help preserve prosperity and security across NATO."
Canada currently has a plan to get its military spending up to 1.76 per cent of GDP.
The Liberal government has vowed that planned military spending which has not yet been approved will push the country over the two per cent line. But those statements fall short of the clear plan NATO is expecting to see.
And the goalposts may be moving.
In NATO's official summit declaration, released late Wednesday, the 32 NATO leaders praised the increase in defence spending across the whole alliance — but hinted that a higher threshold may be in the offing.
"We reaffirm that, in many cases, expenditure beyond two per cent of GDP will be needed in order to remedy existing shortfalls and meet the requirements" in an unsettled international landscape, said the declaration.
A representative in Washington for Canada's business lobby says the absence of a promise to hit the two per cent target was turning into an irritant affecting Canada's interests in other areas.
John Dickerman, the U.S. representative for the Business Council of Canada, described going to meet U.S. lawmakers with delegations from Canada — while the Canadians want to talk about trade and economic issues, the Americans keep asking about military spending and Arctic infrastructure modernization.
"We'll go in with the intent to speak about the trade and investment relationship and we get started and they will say, 'Hold up for a second, we've got a couple of issues that we'd like to talk to you about,'" Dickerman told CBC News on Wednesday.
"We've been asked by different members of Congress what our plans are for the Arctic, what our plans are for defence spending, and how the private sector can influence the government to actually live up to their commitment."
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Apprehensive allies gather in Washington to mark NATO's 75 years of mutual defence
Tensions over Ukraine's future membership and the prospect of Trump's return cast a pall over the gathering
Representatives of NATO nations gathered in Washington Tuesday for a landmark anniversary leaders' summit, complete with a musical performance that could have rivalled Broadway.
But behind the celebratory air and the parade of flags in the hall where allies signed the Washington Treaty 75 years ago — launching the North Atlantic Treaty Organization — there was an air of political anxiety.
On Capitol Hill on Tuesday, Democrats debated behind closed doors whether President Joe Biden should end his re-election campaign in the face of mounting questions about his fitness to both lead the United States and speak for American interests in NATO for the next four years.
At the NATO summit, apprehensive allies pondered what might happen to the alliance if former president Donald Trump regains the White House in the upcoming presidential election.
Meanwhile, behind closed doors, members of the alliance tried to hammer out language that would pave the way for Ukraine's eventual NATO membership, despite the reservations of some nations and the outright objections of others.
The gathering of NATO leaders gets underway in earnest on Wednesday.
In his formal remarks, soon-to-retire Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg delivered a rallying cry for the war-ravaged Eastern European nation and reminded the assembled leaders of the likely consequences if Russia's invasion succeeds.
"So the outcome of this war will shape global security for decades to come," Stoltenberg said.
"The time to stand for freedom and democracy is now. The place is Ukraine."
NATO
Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg wraps up his remarks during an event
commemorating the 75th Anniversary of NATO at the Andrew W. Mellon
Auditorium on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Washington on Tuesday,
July 9, 2024. (Susan Walsh/Associated Press)
He acknowledged that supporting the government of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was never a "given" for NATO — due to Moscow's initial efforts at squeezing Europe's energy supply and the lingering threat of nuclear war — but the alliance persevered.
"The reality is, there are no cost-free options with an aggressive Russia as a neighbour," he said. "There are no risk-free options in a war."
Trump has promised to settle the Russia-Ukraine war in one day — a prospect even the Russian ambassador to the United Nations has dismissed.
The former president also famously pledged to let Moscow "do whatever the hell it wants" to NATO allies who don't keep up their defence spending commitments.
In his address to the anniversary celebration Tuesday night, Biden said he doesn't believe the U.S. will retreat from its leadership role in the alliance and its obligations.
"A overwhelming bipartisan majority of Americans understand that NATO makes us all safer," he said.
"The American people know all of the progress we've made in the last 75 years has happened behind the shield of NATO."
A defence expert neatly captured the mood of the gathering in a recent discussion of what to expect during the next two days of meetings.
"So in some ways, this NATO summit is coming as sort of the best of times and the worst of times. The best of times, in the sense that the alliance knows what it's about ... It's about deterring Russia," said Max Bergmann of the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.
"But it's also sort of the worst of times, obviously, because of the war in Ukraine, [the] challenges of ramping up European defence spending, concerns about the reliability of the United States."
Emergency
services work at the site of Okhmatdyt children’s hospital, hit by
Russian missiles, in Kyiv, Ukraine on Monday, July 8, 2024. Russian
missiles have killed several people and struck a children’s hospital in
the Ukrainian capital, authorities say. (Evgeniy Maloletka/The Associated Press)
Ukraine — its future in NATO and the sort of assurances the alliance can offer it that it will be admitted after the war ends — is expected to dominate the agenda.
Bergmann said several allied nations are expected to sign individual security agreements with Ukraine, similar to the one Canada struck with Zelenskky's government last winter.
"But the Ukrainians will leave somewhat, I think, disappointed," he said, referring to the membership issue. "The question is how much of a ruckus is ... created over the membership question."
The possibility of Ukraine's future NATO membership is being hotly debated among alliance leaders.
Dozens of foreign policy experts last week called on NATO members to avoid moving toward granting Ukrainian membership at the summit, warning that it would endanger the U.S. and allies and rupture the coalition.
If Ukraine is admitted, the group argues, Russia attacking Ukraine in the future would trigger NATO's Article 5, which calls on allies to defend the member attacked.
When he visited Ottawa last month, Stoltenberg revealed that NATO will station a senior civilian official in Kyiv to act as a liaison.
The alliance will also take over the coordination and provision of most international security assistance for Ukraine, including weapons shipments and training of fresh forces.
Stoltenberg also has pressed the allies to provide a sustained level of funding — roughly 40 billion euros — to keep the Ukrainian war effort going.
Ukraine has placed air defences at the top of its list of requests — a plea that took on greater urgency Monday following the Russian missile strike on a Kyiv children's hospital and air raids that left as many as 41 dead across the country.
On Tuesday, the United States and other NATO allies agreed to send Ukraine dozens of air defence systems in the coming months — including at least four of the powerful Patriot systems that Kyiv has been desperately seeking to help fight off Russian advances in the war.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Trudeau holds high-level talks in Washington as he faces pressure to boost defence spending
Following meeting with senators, Mitch McConnell posted, 'it's time for our northern ally to invest seriously'
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau took the temperature of Canada-U.S. relations in a series of high-level political and economic meetings ahead of the NATO Summit in Washington.
On Capitol Hill on Tuesday morning, he met with a bipartisan group of U.S. senators that included Democratic majority leader Chuck Schumer and Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell.
Later in the day, he met with Hakeem Jeffries, the Democratic minority leader in the House of Representatives.
The Prime Minister's Office, in a readout of the conversations, said Trudeau "underlined Canada's defence policy update, Our North, Strong and Free: A Renewed Vision for Canada's Defence, which includes new investments that will provide the Canadian Armed Forces with the tools and capacity they need to defend Canada and protect North America."
However, at least one powerful Senate voice remained unconvinced.
McConnell, in a post late Tuesday on X, said shared values and close economic ties have always been the strength of the U.S.-Canada relationship, "but it's time for our northern ally to invest seriously in the hard power required to help preserve prosperity and security across NATO."
The meetings with lawmakers followed a meeting Monday with Joshua Bolten, the chief executive officer of the influential U.S. Business Roundtable.
In May, a group of 23 U.S. Democratic and Republican senators signed a letter to Trudeau urging the Liberal government to increase its defence spending to the two per cent of gross domestic product benchmark agreed to by NATO allies in 2023.
Senator
Mitch McConnell, Canadian Ambassador to the United States Kirsten
Hillman, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Senate Majority leader
Charles Schumer pose for a photo before meeting on Capitol Hill on
Tuesday, July 9, 2024 in Washington, D.C. (Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press)
The letter was an extraordinary end-run around the Biden administration, which generally has taken a measured approach to dealing with Canada's defence spending.
Going into Tuesday's meetings with U.S. Senate leaders, Trudeau was only asked by journalists about the ongoing health concerns involving President Joe Biden — a question the prime minister deflected.
Canada's Ambassador to the U.S. Kirsten Hillman said she has not met with the senators who signed the letter but has had contact with some of them through a bipartisan committee of American lawmakers who deal with U.S.-Canada relations.
She said security discussions with the U.S. are about more than just the NATO two per cent standard.
"The conversations are not one-note. They're complicated," Hillman told Canadian reporters. "They're serious, and we are taken very seriously."
The meeting with the business roundtable was significant because Canada's top business leaders warned Trudeau last month in a letter that the country faces diplomatic and economic isolation if it doesn't present NATO with a clear, verifiable plan to reach the alliance's spending target.
Speaking for the business council on Monday, Bolten, who served as a White House chief of staff in the George W. Bush administration, struck a firm but conciliatory note.
"We face common challenges, not only in the security environment, which you're here to talk with other NATO leaders about, but also in the economic environment," Bolten said. "And the United States has no closer economic partner than Canada to face those challenges."
In a readout following the meeting, the Prime Minister's Office said Trudeau and Bolten emphasized the importance of secure, resilient supply chains to keep the Canada-U.S. industrial base strong.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Sweden hoists its flag at NATO and will join Canadian brigade in Latvia
'With this membership, Sweden has come home' — Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson
Under a heavy, rain-soaked Belgian sky, Sweden's flag was raised Monday at NATO headquarters in Brussels to formally mark its new status as a full member of the western military alliance.
The event was witnessed by Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, who led a delegation in Brussels that included cabinet ministers, Sweden's military commander-in-chief and the nation's Crown Princess Victoria.
Joining NATO was the "only reasonable choice" after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Kristersson said in prepared remarks delivered in front of NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.
"After more than 200 years of military non-alignment, this is a historic step. But also, a very natural step," Kristersson said. "We have been preparing for decades, and in detail the last two years.
"With this membership, Sweden has come home."
U.S.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken, right, poses for a photo with
Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson while holding Sweden's NATO
Instruments of Accession in the Benjamin Franklin Room at the State
Department on Thursday, March 7, 2024, in Washington. (Jess Rapfogel/The Associated Press)
Sweden's official entry into NATO last Thursday — making it the 32nd member of the alliance — was held up for almost two years by Turkey and later Hungary, both of which presented a variety of objections.
Its neighbour, Finland, applied at the same time as Sweden and was accepted into the alliance last year.
Following the flag-raising ceremony, NATO released an in-house video showing Finnish Army tanks and Swedish Army mechanized infantry taking part in the alliance's exercise Nordic Response 2024, which is taking place in Norway and is meant to showcase NATO's ability to move forces rapidly across allied borders.
More than 20,000 troops from 13 NATO countries are taking part in the training.
Swedish Minister of Defence Pål Jonson was quoted in the alliance video saying his country brings a lot to the table, not only in terms of land power.
"I think we have unique competence in operating on the Baltic Sea. We have submarines. We have surface combatants," Jonson said. "We have this sub-Arctic capabilities. I think with Sweden, Finland and Norway cooperating, we're going to keep the alliance stronger here."
The formal acceptance of Sweden has military significance for Canada.
The Nordic country plans to send a reduced battalion to join the Canadian-led multinational brigade in Latvia, part of NATO's mission to deter Russia in eastern Europe.
The head of the Canadian military's operational command told CBC News last December that planning was underway for the Swedes to become part of the formation.
Sweden's top military commander, Gen. Micael Bydén, recommended to the government in Stockholm in 2022 that the country commit troops to one of the NATO battle groups once the process of joining NATO was completed.
A think-tank, the Stockholm Free World Forum, conducted a detailed analysis. In a report presented last summer, the forum said that there would be a "strategic benefit to placing Swedish troops under the Canadian-led force based on the common interests of Sweden and Canada."
In a speech in January, Kristersson outlined plans to deploy a "reduced battalion" to the brigade, which is expected to be fully operational next summer.
In a statement, the Swedish Armed Forces said that Sweden and Denmark will take turns leading a battalion that will form part of the Canadian-led brigade in Latvia.
The Danish and Swedish troops will replace each other every six months, Janes Defence News reported in January, noting that the first Swedish unit — of 600 soldiers — had been designated already and will deploy in 2025.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
NATO at 75: Is Canada losing its grip on the world's greatest military alliance?
Canada was a founding member but its NATO partners have grown impatient with its modest military spending
Inarguably bigger and more seasoned than it was when it was born from the ashes of the Second World War, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization — the West's great military alliance — celebrated a milestone Thursday: three-quarters of a century of keeping the peace in Europe.
NATO formally came into being with the signing of the Washington Treaty in the U.S. capital 75 years ago, when 12 western democracies — including Canada — banded together against what they saw as Soviet Russia's expansionism in Europe.
Its creation helped to inaugurate the Cold War and, six years later, brought about the creation of the rival Warsaw Pact of communist countries, led by the Soviet Union.
The contest between those two alliances brought the world to the brink of nuclear war on several occasions, notably in October 1962 and November 1983.
NATO now faces multiple external and internal challenges — ranging from a resurgent Russia to the possibility of Donald Trump regaining the White House and pulling the United States out of the alliance.
Canada was one of the founding members of NATO and pushed at the time to make it a political and economic forum as well as a military alliance.
But while Canada still contributes to and plays important roles within NATO, Ottawa has appeared increasingly off-side with its NATO allies on the political and policy issues of defence spending and preparation.
That has led some allies and critics to wonder whether Canada's influence inside NATO is on the wane.
Sweden as the model NATO nation
There are more voices around the table now, bringing with them a new dynamic. Sweden's accession to NATO after two centuries of neutrality offers a good example of that.
Formally admitted in February, the Nordic country, with one-quarter of Canada's population, came through the door with a well-equipped military three-quarters the size of the Canadian military — proportionally larger, in other words. Sweden also has a firm plan to meet the alliance's national benchmark for military spending — two per cent of GDP — and a well-organized civil defence structure.
Canadian soldiers take part in NATO military exercises at a training ground in Kadaga, Latvia on Sept. 13, 2021. (Roman Koksarov/The Associated Press)
Canada, meanwhile, struggles to recruit and manage aging fleets of military equipment and hasn't even begun to wrap its head around civil defence preparedness and resilience in the face of war and unrest beyond our borders.
Gen. Wayne Eyre, the outgoing chief of the defence staff, has used almost every one of his appearances before House of Commons committees to warn about what might happen next on the international stage, and to draw attention to the declining readiness of his own troops.
"I will tell you that the military we have today is not the military that we need for the threats that are appearing in the future," Eyre told the House of Commons committee on public safety and national security on Oct. 6, 2022.
With war raging in Ukraine, European NATO members are increasingly nervous. Some nations have reintroduced conscription and have directed the construction of bomb shelters.
"We need to understand, as a society, that war and fighting is not only something of the military. I think a nation needs to understand that when it comes to a war, as we see in Ukraine, it is a whole-of-society event," said Dutch Admiral Rob Bauer, who heads the NATO Military Committee.
"The issue is that Russia has larger ambitions than Ukraine. We know that. And therefore, the alliance as a whole needs to be 'readier.'"
But Canadian military readiness has declined substantially, as CBC News reported last month. If NATO declared an emergency tomorrow, only 58 per cent of army, navy and air force units designated to respond would be in any shape to do so.
An internal Department of National Defence presentation shows that 45 per cent of Canadian military equipment set aside for the defence of Europe faces "challenges" and is considered "unavailable and unserviceable."
Canada's allies have taken notice, said the country's former ambassador to NATO.
"We won't get kicked out of NATO, but when you make a point at the North Atlantic Council table, your voice carries less weight because you need to put your money where your mouth is," said Kerry Buck. She said Canada's silence on how it plans to meet the organization's defence spending target is undermining its clout in the alliance.
Canada currently spends the equivalent of 1.38 per cent of its GDP on defence, putting it sixth from the bottom in a list of all 32 NATO members in terms of military spending.
Neither the governing Liberals nor the opposition Conservatives have laid out firm plans to meet the target. Both parties have said only that Canada will work toward it.
The 'quadrant of shame'
The pressure on Canada has only increased since Trump vowed that, if he becomes U.S. president again, he would not protect NATO allies that don't meet the target and would encourage Russia to "do whatever the hell they want" to countries he considers delinquent.
"We're the only ally, the lone ally that sits in that quadrant of shame where we don't either meet the two per cent of GDP ... target and we don't meet the target of 20 per cent of our defence spending on research and development and equipment procurement," said Buck.
"So it hits us politically, it makes us a target when the whole alliance is rowing towards this goal of two per cent because they recognize that the world is a more dangerous place. And then there's Canada sitting there, not doing that."
It is a curious place for Canada to find itself. Liberal Prime Minister Lester B. Pearson helped to shape the alliance's founding charter to include a clause that made NATO more than just a military alliance but also a forum for political and economic dialogue among like-minded allies.
Prime
Minister Lester B. Pearson with U.S. President Lyndon Johnson at a
joint news conference at Uplands Airport in Ottawa at the end of
Johnson's whirlwind visit to Canada in May, 1967. (Canadian Press)
University of Toronto historian Tim Sayle said that, given what Canada spent in blood and treasure in two world wars, the postwar generation of political leaders in Ottawa was determined to ensure Canada had a say in matters of war and peace.
"In the late 1940s, with the possibility of [another] war looming, Canadian officials were not ready to leave that decision for war to others without at least having their say and trying to influence things," he said.
"And so the Canadian experience fighting alongside the Americans and the British and the Second World War had convinced them that sometimes Canadian wisdom should be a part of the conversation, that Canadians needed to be at the table."
'No tanks, no trade'
Former Canadian diplomat Colin Robertson said Canada has for decades demonstrated an aptitude for navigating the political and economic waters at NATO and can do so again, even with a bigger alliance.
In the 1970s, detente with Soviet Russia was in the air. A new Liberal government and a new generation had grown skeptical of NATO and had reduced Canada's contingent in Europe. At the same time, the government of Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau was courting trade with West Germany under Chancellor Helmut Schmidt.
Schmidt forced Trudeau to reconsider his government's position on military spending, said Robertson.
"Schmidt said to Trudeau, 'No tanks, no trade,'" he said.
"And so at that point," he added, "Pierre Trudeau says, 'OK, this NATO really does have value.'" And he boosted the defence budget and bought German Leopard tanks.
"We sometimes forget this," Robertson said.
Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau addresses the Senate Chamber in June, 1974. To his left is NATO Secretary General Joseph Luns. (NATO)
Retired general Ray Henault, a former chief of the defence staff, said Canada's clout at NATO has often derived from what it contributes in troops and equipment, rather than what it spends on defence. He pointed out that Canadian troops spent more than 12 years in Afghanistan, much of the time under the NATO flag.
Its leadership and ongoing efforts to build a NATO brigade in Latvia to deter possible future Russian attacks is a another good example of what Canada still brings to the NATO table, he said.
The political and economic dialogue about Canada's contribution is still important, said Henault, but it's not everything.
"I still support that NATO target, but I don't think it detracts from the respect and the high regard which Canada and its military has held in the NATO forum, not by any means," said Henault, who served as Canada's last head of the NATO Military Committee in the early 2000s.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
No comments:
Post a Comment