Yesterday early in the day I made one comment within the most liked thread before the debate began. After the debate was over I noticed the top thread was missing and was not surprised to see that the Fake Left Propaganda Machine commonly known as CBC was fully engaged in assisting Trudeau the Younger and his many cohorts. I can only imagine how many other comments were deleted and or blocked. However I keep good records of when it happens to me in order to support a lawsuit against the Crown.
It should be painfully obvious to anyone paying attention that if Ford wins in Ontario it is highly unlikely that Carbon Tax will be in our future and that Trudeau The Younger may become another one term Prime Minister and that Harper 2.0 may have minority mandate in 2019. However I doubt that history will repeat itself and we see Trudeau The Younger making a comeback like his evil daddy did. N'esy Pas?
Immediately below is a cut and paste from CBC's records of my comments
Campaign kickoff: 6 factors that will decide the Ontario election | CBC News
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-election-leaders-debate-preview-1.4641747
6 factors that will decide the Ontario election
Televised leaders' debate tonight between Wynne, Ford and Horwath could set the tone for the campaign
Comments
Commenting is now closed for this story.
Dennis Brady
Doug Ford will win, and im
willing to give him a chance, anything but Wynne. NDP are spendthrift
big government socialists, no thanks, my taxes are high enough.
Content disabled.
David Amos
@David Allan "Talk about being a low-information voter."
I see you are still busy insulting folks for the benefit of the Fake Left while many other people's comments go "poof" N'esy Pas?
I see you are still busy insulting folks for the benefit of the Fake Left while many other people's comments go "poof" N'esy Pas?
David Amos
@David Allan Talk about being a low-information voter.
Methinks CBC just informed me about you N'esy Pas?
Methinks CBC just informed me about you N'esy Pas?
Dennis Brady
The only factor that matter is Kathleen Wynne...That it, anyone who is not her will win. Wynne must go now.
Bill Nazarene
@Dennis Brady
Translator on the fritz, 'Fellow Canadian'?
Translator on the fritz, 'Fellow Canadian'?
David Amos
@Bill Nazarene Methinks you used that insult on me recently N'esy Pas?
Ian Malcomson
Check off the box for Ford
and let's get on with living. Obviously, Wynne has to go and Horwath
reminds voters of Bob Rae, so that leaves Ontarioans with Doug.
David Amos
@Ian Malcomson "If Kathleen
Wynne has any shot at winning the election, she has to do well among
millennials," said Coletto, adding that the same applies to the NDP. For
that strategy to work, he said, the parties must get millennials
motivated to vote and "find a way to get them excited."
Methinks Dougy will laugh as the Fake Left spit the "millennial" vote and the old baby boomers and their parents who hate more taxation will help him win bigtime N'esy Pas?
Methinks Dougy will laugh as the Fake Left spit the "millennial" vote and the old baby boomers and their parents who hate more taxation will help him win bigtime N'esy Pas?
Cyril Hurd
"A significant portion of the electorate has completely written off voting for Kathleen Wynne and the Liberals."
Count me among them. I'm ready to consider either the NDP or the PC's. Anyone but Wynne.
Count me among them. I'm ready to consider either the NDP or the PC's. Anyone but Wynne.
Jon Holmes
@Cyril Hurd This will be the true election question. Who's least worst to fill the shoes of the worst Premier in my life.
David Allan
@Cyril Hurd
I would recommend the party with an actual platform.
Not for partisan reasons.
A party without a platform is asking for a blank cheque.
I would recommend the party with an actual platform.
Not for partisan reasons.
A party without a platform is asking for a blank cheque.
David Amos
@Jon Holmes "This will be the true election question. Who's least worst to fill the shoes of the worst Premier in my life."
Methinks there have lots of elections like that in my lifetime (In fact every one) the last federal election was a very good example N'esy Pas?
Methinks there have lots of elections like that in my lifetime (In fact every one) the last federal election was a very good example N'esy Pas?
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/provincial-election-debate-analysis-1.4652112
NDP leader works to grab the spotlight in Ontario election debate
Ford was respectful, Wynne solid on policy, but neither likely swayed undecided voters
· CBC News · Posted: May 08, 2018 4:00 AM ET
957 Comments
Commenting is now closed for this story.
Steven Henry
Doug doesn’t support safe injection sites because it’ll cut profits for his “partners”.
Content disabled.
David Amos
@Steven Henry Methinks folks
should wonder why such comments as yours are permitted while so many
legit comments are blocked N'esy Pas?
David Amos
@Steven Henry Methinks I should blog about your words ASAP N'esy Pas?
Content disabled.
David Amos
@Margaret Bricknell Do tell Where did the comment of your friend Lawrence Aaluuluuq (RedWhite) go?
Doug Lake
Doug Ford is now flipflopping on the logical cannabis sales model. Remember that folks.
The guy is big joke. Well they all are really. But that guy is a joke.
The guy is big joke. Well they all are really. But that guy is a joke.
Content disabled.
David Amos
@Doug Lake Methinks we should
all wonder how many comments have been blocked and how many comment
threads have been deleted today N'esy Pas?
Content disabled.
David Amos
David Amos
@Doug Lake Methinks folks should wonder why my reply to you was blocked N'esy Pas?
David Amos
@Jon Holmes Methinks folks can say what they wish but none can deny that they love the circus N'esy Pas?
Nigel Marshall
Ford's big selling point--
'I'm not Kathleen Wynne"--was bettered by Andrea Horvath's "I'm not
Kathleen Wynne, and I'm not Doug Ford, either."
David Amos
@Nigel Marshall Yesterday before the debate I read this in CBC and commented about it
"If Kathleen Wynne has any shot at winning the election, she has to do well among millennials," said Coletto, adding that the same applies to the NDP. For that strategy to work, he said, the parties must get millennials motivated to vote and "find a way to get them excited."
After watching the debate my opinion remains the same
Methinks Dougy will laugh as the Fake Left spit the "millennial" vote and the old baby boomers and their parents who hate more taxation will help him win bigtime N'esy Pas?
Glen Strathy
Horwath was the clear winner
-- the perfect choice for those disgruntled with Wynne but can't stand
the thought of voting for Ford.
David Amos
@Glen Strathy Methinks you watched a different debate than I did N'esy Pas?
Lawrence Aaluuluuq (RedWhite)
@David Amos
So you're gonna go with the bribery laden, drug dealing, failure of a councilman?
Sad.
So you're gonna go with the bribery laden, drug dealing, failure of a councilman?
Sad.
David Amos
@Lawrence Aaluuluuq (RedWhite) Do tell where did you last comment making fun of me go?
Mike Hawke
@David Amos
Mais voyons donc! Monsieur, je suis d'accord avec ton opinion mais les mots que tu cherches sont
"N'est-ce pas".
Mais voyons donc! Monsieur, je suis d'accord avec ton opinion mais les mots que tu cherches sont
"N'est-ce pas".
David Amos
@Mike Hawke Je vous remercie
pour cela. Cependant, depuis que Trudeau l'Ancien a fait du
Nouveau-Brunswick la seule province bilingue du Canada, j'ai considéré
que c'était mon travail de torturer les hommes français et de courtiser
leurs dames. C'est plutôt comique pour moi que seulement l'anglais
essaie de me corriger. N'esy Pas?
Emile Nelligan
If Toronto was the laughing stalk of the World under the Rob Ford, Ontario will be the laughing stalk of Canada under Doug Ford.
David Amos
@Emile Nelligan Methinks the polls say that the majority of the voters appear to disagree with you N'esy Pas?
travis patrick
This will be the first time I vote NDP.
Michael Murphy
@Jim Gurtle Creating more debt with Doug Ford as he promises is the answer to massive debt?
David Amos
@travis patrick Methinks
folks should take what CBC reports with a grain of salt and simply watch
the debate themselves N'esy Pas?
Lawrence Aaluuluuq (RedWhite)
@David Amos
"methinks" "N'es[t] Pas"
It's like a primitive random word generator was filled with Rebel talking points filtered through Reddit's /r/iamverysmart, then repeatedly sent back and forth through Google Translator's different languages...
"methinks" "N'es[t] Pas"
It's like a primitive random word generator was filled with Rebel talking points filtered through Reddit's /r/iamverysmart, then repeatedly sent back and forth through Google Translator's different languages...
Margaret Bricknell
@David Amos
I did- Andrea won hands down.
And it is n'est-ce pas. There- fixed it for you.
I did- Andrea won hands down.
And it is n'est-ce pas. There- fixed it for you.
Margaret Bricknell
@Lawrence Aaluuluuq (RedWhite)
Funny- you are probably right!
Funny- you are probably right!
David Amos
@Margaret Bricknell NOPE Methinks your attempts at fixing MY expression has fixed your own little red wagon N'esy Pas?
David Amos
@Lawrence Aaluuluuq (RedWhite) Methinks you should try Googling David Amos and N'esy Pas and see what you see
jim graham
@David Amos David Amos=ultracrepidarian. Your a shoemaker.
David Amos
@jim graham Methinks thou
doth jest too much everybody knows I am the guy who enjoy suing lawyers
and public servants while running for public office N'esy Pas?
Content disabled.
David Amos
David Amos
@Michael Murphy Methinks that what liberals believe too N'esy Pas?
Content disabled.
David Amos
@Margaret Bricknell Do tell Where did the comment of your friend Lawrence Aaluuluuq (RedWhite) go?
Neil Turv
@David Allan
Can't wait for someone do bring up Harper so you can defend his actions during a global recession as vociferously as you do Rae.
Can't wait for someone do bring up Harper so you can defend his actions during a global recession as vociferously as you do Rae.
David Amos
@Neil Turv Methinks that would be rather special for Mr Allan to do N'esy Pas?
Neil Turv
@David Amos
Are you implying he applies different standards based on his own partisan preferences?
Surely he holds everyone to the same standard?
Are you implying he applies different standards based on his own partisan preferences?
Surely he holds everyone to the same standard?
Content disabled.
David Amos
@Neil Turv Methinks folks will enjoy your jest about a Fake Left Troll N'esy Pas?
David Amos
@Neil Turv Methinks CBC won't allow me to agree with you for rather obvious reasons N'esy Pas?
Jim Graham
Doug Ford's entire policy proposal: Trust me!"
Doug mirrors the 2015 Harper strategy of parochialism. His peeps are like Trump base clones and find reading and facts to be an inconvenience.
Ford offers bluster and a failed record as a city counsellor. In Toronto, his only achievement was to play enforcer for Rob ... something that Ontario should avoid at all costs.
Doug mirrors the 2015 Harper strategy of parochialism. His peeps are like Trump base clones and find reading and facts to be an inconvenience.
Ford offers bluster and a failed record as a city counsellor. In Toronto, his only achievement was to play enforcer for Rob ... something that Ontario should avoid at all costs.
Lawrence Aaluuluuq (RedWhite)
@Ray Thomas
Then vote Horwath.
If you elect a drug dealing, bribing, failure of a councilman because "he's not Wynne", then you're going to get exactly the government you deserve.
Then vote Horwath.
If you elect a drug dealing, bribing, failure of a councilman because "he's not Wynne", then you're going to get exactly the government you deserve.
David Amos
@Lawrence Aaluuluuq (RedWhite) Oh My My Do ya pratice libel much?
Lawrence Aaluuluuq (RedWhite)
@David Amos
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/toronto/globe-investigation-the-ford-familys-history-with-drug-dealing/article12153014/
*drops microphone*
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/toronto/globe-investigation-the-ford-familys-history-with-drug-dealing/article12153014/
*drops microphone*
David Amos
@Lawrence Aaluuluuq
(RedWhite) Methinks I should do a little poll to see if folks have
noticed just how fast your comments come and go N'esy Pas?
So with that in mind Survey Says?
So with that in mind Survey Says?
Peter Steffler
Doug is keen on doling out corporate welfare.
John Oaktree
@Paul Anthony
Give me a break. Trudeau just bought the Kinder Morgan pipeline for several billion dollars.
Investing in the economy is what the government does.
Give me a break. Trudeau just bought the Kinder Morgan pipeline for several billion dollars.
Investing in the economy is what the government does.
David Amos
@John Oaktree Dream on
Marco Banino
So far the only noticeable polices Ford has are:
- open up development for Walton International and other big developers
- sell off the LCBO one of the biggest revenue streams for the government
- allow private sellers of cannabis, potentially losing hundreds millions of dollars in revenue
- reduce taxes (somehow)
Harris got elected on a promise to reduce taxes. He did by downloading to municipalities. The result was effectively no tax reductions, Walkerton and losing billions (maybe $10b & hundreds of millions in revenue?), off the bargain sale of the 407.
It is impossible to reduce revenue and keep the programs you have. Every service has a cost. Piuck which service you want eliminated.
- open up development for Walton International and other big developers
- sell off the LCBO one of the biggest revenue streams for the government
- allow private sellers of cannabis, potentially losing hundreds millions of dollars in revenue
- reduce taxes (somehow)
Harris got elected on a promise to reduce taxes. He did by downloading to municipalities. The result was effectively no tax reductions, Walkerton and losing billions (maybe $10b & hundreds of millions in revenue?), off the bargain sale of the 407.
It is impossible to reduce revenue and keep the programs you have. Every service has a cost. Piuck which service you want eliminated.
Jack Obrien
@Marco Banino .... I think I need to see some sources cause half that stuff sounds made up?
Oakley Thurlow
@Marco Banino
None of these are Ford policies. It's a shame these boards weren't mode rated for lies.
None of these are Ford policies. It's a shame these boards weren't mode rated for lies.
David Amos
@Oakley Thurlow "It's a shame these boards weren't mode rated for lies."
Methinks a propaganda machine would not function very well if it were to act ethically N'esy Pas?
Methinks a propaganda machine would not function very well if it were to act ethically N'esy Pas?
Content disabled.
David Amos
David Amos
@Neil Turv "Did your hand fall asleep? "
Methinks that somebody's hand has been very busy deleting other comments he has made today N'esy Pas?
Methinks that somebody's hand has been very busy deleting other comments he has made today N'esy Pas?
David Amos
@David Amos Methinks I should thank CBC for pointing my point once again N'esy Pas?
Jim Gurtle
PC is still the best choice,
even if you need to hold your nose at the ballot box. Horwath may have a
shred of integrity (unlike Wynne), but it’s more of the same tax and
spend, leading to more capital flight, brain drain and deteriorating
credit ratings. It’s time to halt the tax hikes and moderate spending.
Ford is no saviour but he can at least change the trend.
David Amos
@Jim Gurtle Well Put Sir
However methinks that Horwath does not have a shred of integrity and
explained why years ago N'esy Pas CBC?
NDP leader works to grab the spotlight in Ontario election debate
Ford was respectful, Wynne solid on policy, but neither likely swayed undecided voters
It was supposed to be a discussion about house prices. But somehow it devolved into PC Leader Doug Ford and Liberal Leader Kathleen Wynne bickering over who was kowtowing more to developers.
Finally, Andrea Horwath stepped in.
- Vote Compass | See how your views compare with Ontario's political parties
- Poll Tracker | PCs hold commanding lead, but NDP may have some momentum
- Wynne, Horwath demand specifics from Ford about cuts during first leaders' debate
It's not the sort of headline-making zinger we look for in election debates. But Horwath accomplished the one thing she needed to in Monday night's provincial election debate: remind voters that New Democrats are a viable alternative.
'The centre of interest'
The first debate attended by the three major-party candidates ahead of the June 7 provincial election wasn't a game changer, which is no surprise given the campaign doesn't even officially start for another day.
Still, of the three leaders, Horwath came out of Monday night's 75-minute debate ahead of where she was when she went in.
"She will now be the centre of interest," said Geneviève Tellier, a political studies professor at the University of Ottawa. "Even if you didn't think you wanted to vote for her, you're more likely to pay more attention to her now."
CBC News Toronto
Andrea Horwath: "Let's not forget the question about affordable housing."
00:00
00:40
Horwath's performance was not flawless. Her team must have told her to smile, because she had a wide-eyed grin pasted on during her opening statement. (Everyone's opening remarks were poor, with Wynne looking slightly dour and Ford stilted.)
And the NDP's plan to buy back Hydro One from the private sector — which Wynne referred to as "magical thinking" — is vague at best.
But Horwath seemed genuine in responding to pre-selected members of the public who asked questions during the debate, which was organized and broadcast by the City television network. She seemed personable and reasonable (if you consider raising taxes on corporations to fund your platform to be reasonable).
Her go-to move was to stand apart from Ford and Wynne, literally point at them and say, "We don't have to choose between bad and worse; we can actually have change for the better in our province."
Wynne solid, if lacking spark
Wynne showed her usual mastery of policy, perhaps a bit too much at times.
Granted, defending five years' worth of government decisions does not lend itself to pithy quotes. And it's hard not to get into the weeds when battling half-truth assertions about, say, whether new legislation opens the door to privatizing policing. (A new Police Services Act will allow cities to hire civilians for things like crime prevention and traffic control.)
But Wynne allowed her inner policy wonk out on a few occasions. At one point, she talked about "inclusionary zoning" to help municipal governments compel developers to build more affordable housing. It was only a passing reference, and it shouldn't be a mark against you to speak like you understand your own policies, but it sounds a bit too high-falutin' when you're up against an opponent who boasts about rooting "for the little guy."
She told Ford that he can't simply use a campaign slogan as a policy. But she also can't use a policy as a slogan.
CBC News Toronto
Kathleen Wynne: "You can't just have a slogan that then becomes a policy."
00:00
00:34
Ford against safe injection sites 'in neighbourhoods'
Not that Ford had his best outing either. The uncontested front-runner at the moment, Ford can be sharp in a one-on-one interview, but a formal debate? Not his forte. Of the three candidates, Ford is the least experienced in this debate format and it showed. His prepared statements were stiff, and near the start he stood silently while Wynne and Horwath sparred between themselves.
But the bar for success for Monday's debate was low for Ford. Considered by some to be unpredictable, Ford kept a respectful tone, aside from a moment when he told Wynne, "Kathleen, you got a nice smile on your face there."
The format of the debate had candidates standing close to each other and without a podium. Ford found himself awkwardly staring directly at Wynne before asking her a question.
It was an uncomfortable moment to which a steely eyed Wynne responded: "So do you."
Some of Ford's policies continued to evolve, possibly even during the debate. Where he once suggested legalized marijuana be sold through private shops, he now wants to sell it from inside provincial liquor stores. And he caught some observers off-guard by saying he "will not have safe injection sites in neighbourhoods," as earlier in the day his party had said they'd be consulting with experts on the issue. It was unclear what Ford's policy would mean for cities where supervised injection sites, which are legal, are already operating.
CBC News Toronto
Doug Ford on safe injection sites
00:00
00:38
Sorting out the costing and other details of Ford's platform will become key points of focus for pundits in coming days. But now they'll have an additional focus: whether this debate has alerted Ontarians looking for change to the possibility of NDP's Andrea Horwath.
6 factors that will decide the Ontario election
Televised leaders' debate tonight between Wynne, Ford and Horwath could set the tone for the campaign
Though it seems like the parties have been campaigning for weeks, the Ontario election race is really kicking off now.
On Monday, the first televised debate will take place between Liberal Leader Kathleen Wynne, PC Leader Doug Ford and NDP Leader Andrea Horwath. The official start of the campaign period is Wednesday, and election day is June 7, one month from now.
The debate will be broadcast at 6 p.m. ET on CityNews and can also be viewed on its Youtube channel or Facebook page.
That makes this a good time to look at the key factors that will determine who wins come election day on June 7.
While polling suggests Ford's PCs are heading into the campaign with a sizable lead, it's important to know the pollsters are calculating their numbers not only from committed voters but also those who are merely leaning toward a party. Polling suggests nearly half of Ontario voters haven't fully made up their minds, and that makes them persuadable over the next month.
"While it may seem that this election is a foregone conclusion, if you look below the numbers, that tells me there's a lot of opportunity for change and for the campaign to have an impact," said David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data, a polling firm.
"It'd
be a mistake to say this one is over," said Frank Graves, president of
EKOS Research Associates, another polling firm. "The campaign will
matter. The policies and platforms do matter and the communication of
those do matter."
He points out that in the past few Ontario elections and the 2015 federal election, the polls showed "all kinds of movement (during the campaigns) that produced a profoundly different result from what we saw in the going-in polling."
Of course, after nearly 15 years in power, the Liberals could run the best campaign in the history of Ontario politics and still fail to overcome the mood for a change in government.
"There is an intense desire for change," said Coletto. "A significant portion of the electorate has completely written off voting for Kathleen Wynne and the Liberals."
While
Ford appears to be capturing the bulk of those change voters now, this
is where the pollsters see a potential path to victory for the NDP and
Horwath.
"The way the dynamic has been set up as a Liberal-Tory fight, she's been off to the side," said Jaime Watt, executive chairman of Navigator, a strategic communications firm in Toronto. He said Horwath needs to attract those voters who are tired of Wynne but not sure about Ford.
However, Watt struggles to see how the election can turn against the PCs. "The polls at the moment make it pretty clear that Mr. Ford will lead a majority government on the 8th of June."
Coming at the start of the campaign, tonight's televised debate gives each party leader the opportunity to grab some momentum and make an impression on voters, most of whom don't pay close attention to provincial politics outside of election time.
Polling shows the leaders of all three official parties have their problems. Wynne is saddled with an abysmal approval rating, constantly below 25 per cent for the past two years. More people view Ford negatively than view him positively. And despite nine years as leader, Horwath still struggles to get noticed, with one-third of voters polled saying they don't know enough about her to form an opinion.
The
grind of the campaign will demand a lot from the leaders. They will
face constant scrutiny and a single mistake can swing public opinion
dramatically. The leader with the most at risk in tonight's debate is
Ford, as the front-runner.
"Ford will have to demonstrate he is ready to govern and up for the job of being premier," said Watt.
He said Wynne must be scrappy and tough on Ford in the debate, but it is not clear that Ford should go on the offensive against Wynne. "If he attacks her, a woman, premier, grandma, he could find himself in a big bunch of trouble."
It's simply not feasible for any party to win this election without winning a majority of the seats in the suburban belt around Toronto. That has long been the case in provincial politics, but it is even more profound in 2018, because the new electoral map adds seven extra seats to the 905.
The key to the Wynne Liberals' boost from a minority to a majority in 2014 was flipping such PC-held ridings in the 905 as Burlington, Durham and Newmarket-Aurora. The PCs will have to take those back and plenty of others to win on June 7. In particular, look for them to target seat-rich Mississauga and Brampton, just as Stephen Harper's Conservative Party did to win its federal majority in 2011.
"The
905 right now, it's a real challenge for the Liberals," said Coletto.
"It always historically has been a tough place for the New Democrats to
win votes."
On election night, look to see which party is winning the most seats in the 905, and you'll almost certainly see the party that forms the government.
Affordability struggles are on the minds of many Ontario voters, pretty much across the income spectrum. Even middle-class voters feel weighed down particularly by the high costs of housing, but also the cost of transportation, car insurance, hydro, daycare and of course taxation.
While the provincial economy is humming along, real incomes have not kept up with the cost of living. It's contributing to a deeply felt sense of frustration and anger about being left behind, something that Graves says is a powerful motivator that campaigns should not underestimate.
Graves
describes the sentiment as "economically pessimistic, worried about the
future … very unhappy with the direction of the country and Ontario."
He said the polling indicates it is helping fuel populist support for
the PCs.
A crucial factor in the election will be whose formula for making it easier to get by will resonate the most with voters.
The Liberals are counting on support for their recent moves to expand rent control, reduce the burden of tuition, provide free prescription drugs to children and young adults and boost the minimum wage.
The NDP is proposing solutions on similar themes, along with a $12 per day child-care plan.
The PCs are offering tax cuts for corporations and minimum-wage earners, a further 12 per cent cut to hydro rates funded from the tax base, and ending cap-and-trade to reduce the cost of gas and home heating.
Political parties have long de-emphasized the concerns of younger voters, calculating that younger people don't turn out to vote at anywhere near the rate of middle-aged and older voters. But there are signs the millennial generation is starting to buck that trend. Higher-than-expected turnout among younger voters helped propel Justin Trudeau's federal Liberals to power in 2015.
In
Ontario in 2018, more millennials will be eligible to vote than baby
boomers. Coletto's polling suggests these younger voters are more open
to voting Liberal or NDP than any other demographic.
"If Kathleen Wynne has any shot at winning the election, she has to do well among millennials," said Coletto, adding that the same applies to the NDP. For that strategy to work, he said, the parties must get millennials motivated to vote and "find a way to get them excited."
On Monday, the first televised debate will take place between Liberal Leader Kathleen Wynne, PC Leader Doug Ford and NDP Leader Andrea Horwath. The official start of the campaign period is Wednesday, and election day is June 7, one month from now.
The debate will be broadcast at 6 p.m. ET on CityNews and can also be viewed on its Youtube channel or Facebook page.
That makes this a good time to look at the key factors that will determine who wins come election day on June 7.
The campaign
While polling suggests Ford's PCs are heading into the campaign with a sizable lead, it's important to know the pollsters are calculating their numbers not only from committed voters but also those who are merely leaning toward a party. Polling suggests nearly half of Ontario voters haven't fully made up their minds, and that makes them persuadable over the next month.
"While it may seem that this election is a foregone conclusion, if you look below the numbers, that tells me there's a lot of opportunity for change and for the campaign to have an impact," said David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data, a polling firm.
He points out that in the past few Ontario elections and the 2015 federal election, the polls showed "all kinds of movement (during the campaigns) that produced a profoundly different result from what we saw in the going-in polling."
Time for a change
Of course, after nearly 15 years in power, the Liberals could run the best campaign in the history of Ontario politics and still fail to overcome the mood for a change in government.
"There is an intense desire for change," said Coletto. "A significant portion of the electorate has completely written off voting for Kathleen Wynne and the Liberals."
"The way the dynamic has been set up as a Liberal-Tory fight, she's been off to the side," said Jaime Watt, executive chairman of Navigator, a strategic communications firm in Toronto. He said Horwath needs to attract those voters who are tired of Wynne but not sure about Ford.
However, Watt struggles to see how the election can turn against the PCs. "The polls at the moment make it pretty clear that Mr. Ford will lead a majority government on the 8th of June."
The party leaders
Coming at the start of the campaign, tonight's televised debate gives each party leader the opportunity to grab some momentum and make an impression on voters, most of whom don't pay close attention to provincial politics outside of election time.
Polling shows the leaders of all three official parties have their problems. Wynne is saddled with an abysmal approval rating, constantly below 25 per cent for the past two years. More people view Ford negatively than view him positively. And despite nine years as leader, Horwath still struggles to get noticed, with one-third of voters polled saying they don't know enough about her to form an opinion.
"Ford will have to demonstrate he is ready to govern and up for the job of being premier," said Watt.
He said Wynne must be scrappy and tough on Ford in the debate, but it is not clear that Ford should go on the offensive against Wynne. "If he attacks her, a woman, premier, grandma, he could find himself in a big bunch of trouble."
The 905
It's simply not feasible for any party to win this election without winning a majority of the seats in the suburban belt around Toronto. That has long been the case in provincial politics, but it is even more profound in 2018, because the new electoral map adds seven extra seats to the 905.
The key to the Wynne Liberals' boost from a minority to a majority in 2014 was flipping such PC-held ridings in the 905 as Burlington, Durham and Newmarket-Aurora. The PCs will have to take those back and plenty of others to win on June 7. In particular, look for them to target seat-rich Mississauga and Brampton, just as Stephen Harper's Conservative Party did to win its federal majority in 2011.
On election night, look to see which party is winning the most seats in the 905, and you'll almost certainly see the party that forms the government.
Pocketbook issues
Affordability struggles are on the minds of many Ontario voters, pretty much across the income spectrum. Even middle-class voters feel weighed down particularly by the high costs of housing, but also the cost of transportation, car insurance, hydro, daycare and of course taxation.
While the provincial economy is humming along, real incomes have not kept up with the cost of living. It's contributing to a deeply felt sense of frustration and anger about being left behind, something that Graves says is a powerful motivator that campaigns should not underestimate.
A crucial factor in the election will be whose formula for making it easier to get by will resonate the most with voters.
The Liberals are counting on support for their recent moves to expand rent control, reduce the burden of tuition, provide free prescription drugs to children and young adults and boost the minimum wage.
The NDP is proposing solutions on similar themes, along with a $12 per day child-care plan.
The PCs are offering tax cuts for corporations and minimum-wage earners, a further 12 per cent cut to hydro rates funded from the tax base, and ending cap-and-trade to reduce the cost of gas and home heating.
Millennials
Political parties have long de-emphasized the concerns of younger voters, calculating that younger people don't turn out to vote at anywhere near the rate of middle-aged and older voters. But there are signs the millennial generation is starting to buck that trend. Higher-than-expected turnout among younger voters helped propel Justin Trudeau's federal Liberals to power in 2015.
"If Kathleen Wynne has any shot at winning the election, she has to do well among millennials," said Coletto, adding that the same applies to the NDP. For that strategy to work, he said, the parties must get millennials motivated to vote and "find a way to get them excited."
I'm Dr Ogudugu, a real and genuine spell caster/Spiritual healer with years of experience in spell casting and an expert in all spells, i specialize exclusively in LOVE SPELL/GET REUNITE WITH EX LOVER, MONEY SPELL, POWERFUL MAGIC RING, ANY COURT CASES, FRUIT OF THE WOMB, HIV CURE, CURE FOR CANCER, HERPES, DIABETE, HERPERTITIS B, PARKINSON’S HERBAL CURE, BECOMING A MERMAID, BECOMING A VAMPIRE, SAVE CHILD BIRTH. They are all %100 Guaranteed QUICK Results, it most work. If you have any problem and you need a real and genuine spell caster to solve your problems, contact me now through my personal Email Address with problem case...Note-you can also Text/Call on WhatsApp.
ReplyDeleteContact me -
Email: greatogudugu@gmail.com
WhatsApp No: +27663492930