Methinks in the spirit of full disclosure I should inform the folks "I'm Back".

Well my third ID with CBC lasted about 7 hours in 3 "News" Items about the USA.

Here are the other two

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/harper-travel-washington-larry-kudlow-1.4727170


 http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/fbi-director-deputy-attorney-general-republican-hearing-1.4726349


Your account has been banned until 6/29/2018. Reason: We have banned your account for 1 day because we believe it is in violation of our terms of use, specifically repeated off-topic comments, uncivil comments, and personal attacks. For more information, please visit:

http://www.cbc.ca/aboutcbc/discover/submissions.html 




https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/yield-curve-inversion-1.4724637

As yield curves threaten to invert, market watchers sit up and pay attention

When the yield curve inverts, it's usually a sign the U.S. is headed for recession

Pete Evans · CBC News · Posted: Jun 28, 2018 4:00 AM ET

768 Comments  (7 hours later after my third ID was blocked the tally was down to 744)



Go Figure who else was edited out So much to the Integrity of the LIEbrano propaganda machine N'esy Pas?

728 Comments (Commenting is now closed for this story.)

 
Kimmy Smith

No it's not different. There is a republican controlled congress and white house. They will inevitably drive the American economy into the ditch and take the rest of the world with them.

Sam Malone

@Kimmy Smith

More hyperbole from the left. I'm more concerned about our economy than the US. 3.8% unemployment, record minority unemployment, 4.5% GDP!!!

Matt Thuaii

@Sam Malone

Please...just stop. There is no “left” or “lefties” or “socialists” in North America. That idea is utter nonsense. Just because the majority of us are “left” of the socially conservative, corporatist right-wing aberration that has taken over the US (and is attempting to take over Canada) doesn’t mean we’re all “lefties”.

It means we’re sane.

Matt Thuaii

@Wilbur Burton

But whatever. Keep bleating it. The masses will lap it up because they always need a scapegoat. Might as well be the “leftists”...

Though last time I checked it isn’t green-haired college kids accepting massive government subsidies to pad obscene corporate bonuses while shipping jobs overseas.

Matt Thuaii 

@Edward (E) Merij

Horse feathers. The late 70s recession collapsed manufacturing and primary industry. The rich got richer, while the “economy” (wages, job security, benefits) for the rest of us never recovered. The one in the late 80s finished the job. Rich got richer, and for the rest stagnation or worse. Late 90s/early 2000s dotcom burst again made the rich richer, while most lost even more buying and spending power. 2008, retirements got whiped out and millions lost everything, with no real recovery since, but big surprise, the economy for the rich and “investor” class somehow skyrocketed. And now? 2018?

Take a guess and which end of the hose you’ll be drinking from if you’re not already a millionaire.

David R. Amos

@Kimmy Smith "They will inevitably drive the American economy into the ditch and take the rest of the world with them"

I concur

Methinks in the spirit of full disclosure I should inform the folks "I'm Back".

Since 2002 most political people claim I am as crazy as a loon or worse but at least I am ethical enough to post in my true name, run for public office and sue lawyers as I preach about financial crimes etc N'esy Pas?

David R. Amos 

@Matt Thuaii "It means we’re sane."

Methinks the reason legions of people called me crazy over the years since I sued 3 US Treasury Agents and legions of Yankee lawyers in 2002 is that they were very afraid folks may listen to what I was saying in court and publishing in my long gone Geocities web-page. Need I say I was right and that I am honoured that evil people call me names for years?

However that was 15 years ago and now I am getting old. What I say today is even more relevant for the future of all our children if anyone bothers to read the news CBC offers?

https://www.cbc.ca/radio/asithappens/as-it-happens-wednesday-full-episode-1.4724351/new-images-show-rapid-upgrades-at-north-korea-nuclear-site-says-watch-group-1.4724735

May I humbly suggest if anyone truly cares please Google the following and ask your MP or member of the US Congress whether I am crazy or not before Trump does something really stupid and another war begins while the worldwide economy takes a nosedive?

Trump Cohen NAFTA FATCA TPP David Amos

Matt Thuaii
@David R. Amos

Unfortunately on the whole our society has devolved to the point where thinking has been vilified. The internet you knew is gone, and the viruses that infest it are no longer written in computer code; they are of the social and philosophical variety. In truth, few care enough to read more than a sentence or two on any topic (in fact, I care and I likely won’t bother chasing the links you posted). I no longer believe our society can be saved, or is even worth saving in its current form...

...but that won’t stop me from pointing out what’s wrong with it.

As yield curves threaten to invert, market watchers sit up and pay attention

When the yield curve inverts, it's usually a sign the U.S. is headed for recession

Pete Evans · CBC News · Posted: Jun 28, 2018 4:00 AM ET

A red figurine sits atop a trader's desk at the Frankfurt Stock Exchange last year. As short-term interest rates rise and long-term ones stay low, many economists are starting to worry about inverted yield curves and their knack for predicting recessions. (Krisztian Bocsi/Bloomberg)



It may not have escalated to the level of water cooler talk, but an obscure and obtuse-sounding economic indicator is a hot topic of conversation among the investment community of late.

The yield curve on government debt — the gap between how much long-term bonds pay out versus short-term ones — is at its lowest level in more than a decade, and opinion is somewhat divided on how bad a sign it is for the economy.

• Federal Reserve set to leave rates alone but to hike later in year

Under normal circumstances, the yield on long-term bonds should be much higher than the yield on short-term ones to properly reward investors for the risk of waiting longer to get paid, particularly since inflation can eat away at value over time.

At various times over the past decade, the gap between long-term and short-term yields has been as high as four percentage points — or as much as 400 basis points, to use the Bay Street parlance. But lately, gaps around the world have shrunk to their narrowest point in years, leaving many experts to wonder when it may invert.

If that happens — if long-term yields dip below short-term ones — it could be a sign investors are losing confidence in the economy over the long haul. And that's a very serious situation that some economists say could throw the economy upside down.

"Markets are very firmly focused on the shape of the yield curve and its potential to invert," says Frances Donald,​ Manulife's chief economist. "Particularly the U.S. one."

Bad sign

That's because a so-called inverted yield curve has a troubling knack for showing up right before the economy is about to go pear-shaped.

The phenomenon has happened right before almost every single recession dating back to the Second World War. The most recent case where the U.S. went into recession without first seeing the yield curve invert was in 1990, but even then it came close.

Currently, the gap between the two-year U.S. bond and the 10-year bond is just 32 basis points. That's the thinnest it's been since 2007.

To Donald, how much weight you give an inverted yield curve boils down to where you stand on one question: Do they actually cause recessions, or merely show up ahead of one that was already on its way?

• U.S. 10-year bond hits 3% yield for first time since 2014

• Banks cutting variable mortgage rates to drum up business even as fixed rates rise

Donald sums up the first perspective this way: If short-term interest rates are higher than long-term ones, it's more expensive to borrow now rather than later, which makes growth slow down and leads to recession.

But those on the other side of the argument point out yield curves typically invert when central banks hike rates, "which raise the front end of the curve," but do nothing for the end of it, Donald says.

"Because they always raise rates at the end of [business] cycles, we tend to see inverted yield curves at the end of a cycle."

While Donald isn't among those who think an inverted curve would be a sign the sky is falling, she says it's definitely on her radar. "Getting the reason behind why it's inverting ... is one of the most important questions facing investors today."

It's also much more important when the U.S. curve inverts than when it does anywhere else.

Keep calm. Carry on

CIBC's head of rates strategy, Ian Pollick, says it's hard for him to get worked up about inverting yield curves this time around, partly because it's actually happened recently. In Canada. Last month, in fact.
Although it was only brief, the yield on Canada's 30-year bond in May briefly dipped below the yield on the 10-year bond before quickly reverting back to around a 10-point spread today.

"When we were talking to investors and talking to stakeholders," Pollick says of when that happened, "what we tried to express was that it's not saying something deleterious about the macroeconomic environment."

(That's economist-speak for: "Keep calm. Carry on.")

• CIBC is 1st Canadian bank to sell bonds with negative interest rate

Pollick shares Donald's view that a narrowing yield spread is to be expected right now because central banks in Canada and the U.S. are hiking interest rates. That pushes up short-term yields, but leaves the long end of the curve as flat as ever.

So even if the U.S. yield curve inverts, "we don't think its sending a negative signal on the economy," Pollick says.

"And we don't see it as a situation that's going to persist for very long even if it does happen."

About the Author

Pete Evans

Senior Writer, CBCNews.ca

Pete Evans is the senior business writer for CBCNews.ca. Prior to coming to the CBC, he had stints at Report on Business, the Financial Post, the Toronto Star, Canadian Business Magazine and elsewhere. Twitter: @p_evans Email: pete.evans@cbc.ca Secure PGP: https://secure.cbc.ca/public-key/Pete-Evans-pub.asc