Thursday 11 February 2021

N.B. using stale data to calculate COVID payouts, and it's costing some communities thousands

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YO @blainehiggs Methinks the dudes in Fat Fred City should not be surprised by Rothesay's windfall N'esy Pas?
 

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https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/covid-relief-bungle-new-brunswick-1.5909734
 

N.B. using stale data to calculate COVID payouts, and it's costing some communities thousands

Province criticized for using 2016 population estimates for 'per capita' distribution of relief funds

Robert Jones · CBC News · Posted: Feb 11, 2021 7:00 AM AT 

 


Federal COVID-19 relief funding provided to New Brunswick for municipalities was based on 2020 population estimates, but the Higgs government reverted to 2016 estimates when it handed the money out to cities, towns and villages. (Government of New Brunswick)

The provincial government's use of stale population numbers to hand out millions in COVID-19 relief funds has overpaid thousands of dollars to some communities, undercut amounts sent to other communities, and ignored one swath of the population completely.   

Earlier this week, the province announced plans to distribute $28 million in leftover federal COVID-19 relief money that it is required to forward to municipalities.      

But it is basing the distribution plans on outdated data, something Fredericton Councillor Greg Ericson calls "very unfortunate."

Ericson, who is also chair of the city's finance committee, said there have been federal dollars "trying to get from Ottawa to New Brunswick" since the start of the pandemic.

"The greatest challenge has been the New Brunswick government getting in the way," he said.

When plans to distribute the $28 million to municipalities were announced, local government minister Daniel Allain said the money would be handed out equally to 104 communities "on a per capita basis."

But his department used 2016 population numbers, not current estimates, to do it.


Greg Ericson, a Fredericton city councilor and chair of the city finance committee, is not happy that the province is using nearly five-year-old population numbers to divide up federal aid to municipalities. (Gary Moore/CBC file photo)

Difference will cost Fredericton about $121,000 in funding

It's a significant difference in many cases.

New Brunswick municipalities have added 28,000 people since 2016, and thousands more have moved between communities, changing the population of each of them.  

In Fredericton's case, the per-capita COVID funding it will receive is based on its 2016 population of 58,636, even though its current population is 64,180, according to Statistics Canada estimates.

The difference will cost the city about $121,000 in funding.

Some of the 5,544 Fredericton residents not being counted in the per capita formula moved to the city from other New Brunswick communities during the last five years, and their amounts will be credited to where they lived in 2016.

Other new residents are not being counted at all. 

The formula skips over thousands of newcomers completely by not counting them toward the "per capita" distribution of the federally supplied funding.

Ericson said failing to count every current resident in a per-capita formula is a problem, but he suspects it might not be an accident.

"Am I surprised there is a rural bias in how the government is dividing the money? No I am not," said Ericson.

Rothesay is one of several dozen slower-growing New Brunswick communities that benefited from the province's use of old data to divide up COVID relief funding. The town received $8,500 more than it would have received if updated 2020 estimates were used. (Graham Thompson/CBC)

Only official Census data used, Allain's office says

Ottawa sent New Brunswick $41.1 million in COVID-19 compensation funds for municipalities last year, part of a $2-billion national distribution of money for municipalities based on each province's population.

After forwarding $13.1 million to communities over the fall and winter for direct COVID-19 expenses and losses, the Higgs government was left with $28 million to divide up as it saw fit.

Although Ottawa had used New Brunswick population estimates from 2020 to determine how much to send the province, the province reverted to 2016 estimates to hand it out.

Daniel Allain's office did not grant an interview request to ask about the use of 2016 population data, but his office said in an email that this is government policy.

"We only use official Census data for funding formulas and calculations and the last Canadian Census was in 2016," the email noted.

The use of old data benefits shrinking communities or those with stagnant growth, and penalizes those that are expanding.

 

Hanwell Mayor Susan Cassidy says the province should not be using 2016 data to distribute money in 2021. The five-year lapse means her community will get $5,000 less than it would have if 2020 data had been used. (Radio-Canada file photo)

For example, Nackawic is to receive $51,083.08 in per capita funding – less than Hartland, Blackville, Sainte-Anne-de-Madawaska or Nigadoo will receive, even though it has grown larger than all four since 2016.

Rothesay is to be sent $632,919.89 as its per-capita amount. That's 46 per cent of the $1.38 million Dieppe will get, even though Rothesay's population is just 42 per cent of Dieppe's. 

Grand Falls is to receive more funding than Woodstock, even though it has 250 fewer people this year, and Hanwell, which has grown larger than Memramcook and Grand Bay-Westfield since 2016, will receive less than both.

Hanwell Mayor Susan Cassidy said she is not concerned about the extra $5,000 her community would get if updated population numbers were used by the province, but she does think relying on outdated data is poor public policy.

"The five-year lapse is excessive," said Cassidy.  "There are other methods out there."

In total, the use of 2016 population data will cost 21 growing New Brunswick communities $480,000 in funding.

About $191,000 of that involves Moncton, which has added 7,619 people since 2016.

About the Author

Robert Jones

Reporter

Robert Jones has been a reporter and producer with CBC New Brunswick since 1990. His investigative reports on petroleum pricing in New Brunswick won several regional and national awards and led to the adoption of price regulation in 2006. 

 

 

 

86 Comments 
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David Amos
Methinks the dudes in Fat Fred City should not be surprised by Rothesay's windfall N'esy Pas?

 
Lou Bell
Reply to @David Amos: Ah , Dave how long since you were cut off ? We were all worried where you were .All kinds of conspiracy theories , including " in the klink " , " COVID " , " silenced by the Me / We Party " , " takeover of the party by Terry / Tony / Jimmie / Rob " you know all 7 or 8 party members
 
 
Pete Kropotkin
Reply to @David Amos: The Legend Continues! 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Rob Sense  
Where is Lou to try and explain this away on Prov or Fed Liberals while passionately defending his spoon buddy. Putting more money into his back yard is so old school sleazy politics. 
 
 
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David Amos
Reply to @Rob Sense: Good question
 
 
Lou Bell
Reply to @Rob Sense: Your spoon buddy D A is back ! You and he can perform your " Spoon River " rendition !!
 
 
Allister Bannister 
Reply to @Lou Bell: OK...you just ruined rivers 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Chantal LeBouthi
David Alward was the worst premier in NB until Higgs came along
 
 
Archie Levesque
Reply to @Chantal LeBouthi: Shawn Graham? Brian Gallant? or are only Blue ones bad?
 
 
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David Amos
Reply to @Archie Levesque: Good question
 
 
Lou Bell
Reply to @Chantal LeBouthi: Graham gave away 65 million taxpayer dollars to a close family relative of a former premier . Then Gallant doubled down , attempting to give away an UNDISCLOSED 130 million taxpayer dollars ! Thievery at it's finest ! 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
JOhn D Bond 
How does this even warrant being a news story. There is nothing underhanded about it, not like any special favors are being given to one group or another group.
A benchmark is just that a point in time line in the sad.
To the cities that are claiming they are being hard done by, chill this is not the end of the world or even a material item
 
 
Tim Biddiscombe
Reply to @JOhn D Bond: The ones actually affected, NB cities, are rightfully upset in my opinion.
 
 
JOhn D Bond 
Reply to @Tim Biddiscombe: The issue is it will never be 100% accurate. Generally governments use census data for many funding decisions just like large businesses do. If 2016 is the last one that is available and published, everyone is being treated equally. Lets not recreate the wheel for something that has been used for years to assess economic impacts, support social initiatives..... We are not talking about life changing amounts of money. Really not material in the big picture.
 
 
Allister Bannister
Reply to @JOhn D Bond: i have to say...not using current numbers is lazy...and does it say something to the indifference of government?...it also has established a pattern of how this government has viewed federal money...just look at the mess this government created with the money that was available for public transit....its like every single politician and civil servant has a covid mandate...and everything else doesnt matter....well...you have a province to run
 
 
JOhn D Bond 
Reply to @Allister Bannister: I will agree the government has made a mess of a number of things. But this issue to me is a non issue. If only the 2016 data is available to the provinces how would they use something different. It would be great if it was more current. But if nothing is available and distributed nationally, why / what is the issue. It is a consistent path for all.
 
 
View the profile of "Greg Ericson"
Greg Ericson
Reply to @JOhn D Bond: You’re missing the point. The Province should have used the same methodology that the Feds use to calculate the appropriate amount of pandemic funding resources between official census numbers. Statistics Canada information regarding population changes between official census determinations are annually used by the Province. The Province would scream ‘Foul’ if the Feds used 2016 information to calculate the Canada Health Transfer. Changing the methodology so that the intended results support other policy objectives is a bad faith move if I have ever seen one. 
 
 
Allister Bannister
Reply to @JOhn D Bond: just last nite on the news higgy was touting that despite the pandemic ...NB was doing better than any other province....he talked about all the people moving to NB because of how great it is here...fact is...they know the numbers...its that simple...they know the population numbers year to year...its being lazy...it may be a non issue to you...but what about the communities that are negatively affected?
 
 
JOhn D Bond 
Reply to @Greg Ericson: That is my point, 2016 is the latest full data set that is available from Stats Can.
 
 
JOhn D Bond 
Reply to @Allister Bannister: Perhaps I am missing something here. My understanding is that the last set of Stats Canada census information is from 2016.
 
 
Toby Tolly 
Reply to @JOhn D Bond:
yeah
that's the problem with methodologies
theres too many
I guess Eric also believes if the feds say spend money their way
you had better invest
 
 
Toby Tolly
Reply to @Toby Tolly: Ericson that is ...
 
 
View the profile of "Greg Ericson"
Greg Ericson
Reply to @JOhn D Bond: You are correct about the official census data sets’ publication date, but not so much about it being the only statistically valid way to determine population figures between census publications. Both Statistics Canada and the Statistic Society of Canada see value in using the Component Method Formula:
Equation 1.1: P(t+i) = Pt + B(t,t+i) - D(t,t+i) + I(t,t+i) - E(t,t+i) + ΔNPR(t,t+i) + IMnet(t,t+i)

This is how births, deaths, immigration, and other factors are considered between census data sets. The Province of New Brunswick uses this when it serves its purposes.
 
 
JOhn D Bond
Reply to @Greg Ericson: Greg, you miss the point. If we consistently use this data and the other levels of government do, being consistent is of value. Changing base line inputs to derive calculations is not something that we would benefit from on an occurrence basis. We would be like folks at a tennis match, getting a sore neck as the ball moves back and forth across the court.
Are there better ways, of course. Should they simply make the change for this one exercise, absolutely not.
 
 
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David Amos
Reply to @Greg Ericson: If you are the real Mr Ericson I must ask why you don't answer my emails and have you seen my Harley lately??? 
 
 
View the profile of "Greg Ericson"
Greg Ericson
Reply to @JOhn D Bond: If the point of the funding is to support people in the communities where they live during the Covid-19 pandemic it does not make sense to provide funding to where they may have lived 5 years ago. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Jos Allaire
Higgs, Blaine, aka Moore, Ron, most incompetent Premier ever! And Daniel Allain is his lackey.
 
 
Steve Alexander 
Reply to @Jos Allaire: I agree , but instead of how did we let this happen, let's work together to rectify the situation.
 
 
Billy Buckner 
Reply to @Jos Allaire: sounds like someone wants that tax and spend style of gov't back with lots of scandals mixed in, that always works.
 
 
Simeon Elliott 
Reply to @Jos Allaire: Gallant was the most incompetent Premier ever.
 
 
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David Amos
Reply to @Jos Allaire: Methinks many would agree that Higgy's and Allian's former boss Mr Alward takes the cake in the regard N'esy Pas?
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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