Wednesday, 22 March 2023

Banks are in turmoil. Here's how Canadians might be affected

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/banking-explainer-canadian-impact-1.6785459

 

Banks are in turmoil. Here's how Canadians might be affected

Financial tremors in U.S. and Europe bring back memories of 2008's crisis

The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), followed by the near-death of two other regional institutions — First Republic and Signature Bank — left market-watchers jittery and fearful of a domino effect like the one that led to the global financial crisis of 2008.

And that was before Credit Suisse — one of the biggest banks in the world, safely housed in Switzerland of all places — came crashing down last week. What do these financial tremors mean for Canadians? 

What happened? And why?

Silicon Valley Bank, First Republic Bank, Signature Bank and Credit Suisse all faced different problems made worse by rising interest rates.

But the common thread was lack of confidence, says Pedro Antunes, chief economist at the Conference Board of Canada.

Banking is built on confidence. If depositors lose faith, panic and rush to withdraw their assets from a bank for fear of its failure — it can lead to a bank run, as with SVB. 

Sometimes, the panic spreads — often, Antunes told CBC News, by social media. Regulators around the world are now trying to contain the spread to prevent the collapse of additional banks.

WATCH | Central banks try to halt crisis:

Global central banks band together to prevent crisis

Duration 2:19
Global central banks have banded together to reassure world markets and prevent the spread of the banking crisis that started with the collapse of two regional U.S. banks earlier this month from spreading.

Have we seen this before?

Lawmakers such as U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen have pushed back on the idea that these incidents echo the onset of the global financial crisis of the late 2000s. SVB's failure was the largest collapse of a U.S. banking institution since Washington Mutual — among many others — went under in 2008.

Shortly after longtime rival UBS agreed to buy Credit Suisse, central banks around the world — including the Bank of Canada — said they would intervene by offering cash and other support to banks, again in hope of halting the spread of failure and stabilizing the market.

Similar measures were taken in 2008. But this is not a repeat of that crisis, says Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Toronto global payment company Corpay.

"Things are far more regulated today," Schamotta said, though there are concerns about a slowdown in economic growth.

"The issues that caused the 2008 crisis — massive derivatives use, lots and lots of exposure to the U.S. housing market — those are not present this time around."

How does this affect Canada?

Canadians don't have much to worry about, according to Schamotta, because our banking system is "far more secure, far more diversified and far more regulated," than those of the U.S. or Europe. 

"So this is an issue that is probably most important from a psychological perspective, less important in terms of your bank deposits," he said.

The 2008 crisis was a global disaster, said Antunes, "but most of Canada's banks did quite well through that. In fact, they came out quite strong."

"I think that's still very much the story. We have a different banking system," that's less competitive and easier to backstop than in the U.S., he said.

But as concern grows about a possible hit to the global economy, business investors "will be more prudent," said Antunes. And such investments are important for driving economic activity and Canadian trade.

Likewise, we could see a "tightening" of lending standards around the world, says Stephen Brown, deputy chief North America economist at the research firm Capital Economics.

WATCH | What does the SVB collapse mean for Canada?

What does the Silicon Valley Bank collapse mean for Canada?

Duration 6:04
Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist for Corpay, says the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank could mean a 'turbulent' time for Canadian investors.

Banks might not be willing to lend as much money or invest in equity bonds, according to Brown. That could change investing patterns, which in turn could impact the growth of global and U.S. GDP — and the Canadian economy by extension. 

"Weaker GDP growth in the U.S. in general doesn't bode well for Canadian exports," added Brown.

"So these are all reasons to think that the Bank of Canada in particular probably isn't going to be forced back to resuming interest rate [hikes] and probably will be cutting rates again before the end of the year."

Will this lead to a recession?

A recession was predicted in Canada for 2023, and recent events could lead to a slightly deeper dip in economic activity, said Antunes. However, any potential recession will differ from past slumps because the current slowdown is coming with few job losses, as employment continues to trend upward.

"This recession is going to be very, very different for most households in Canada, because we're in a situation where the labour market is very much a big shock absorber," he said. 

Schamotta says Canada and the world might enter a recession in the months ahead, as the effect of interest rate hikes "hits the bottom line for households and for businesses around the world."

"Retail sales, employment, factors like that will tell us about the health of the Canadian economy, about whether Canadian households are cutting their spending and reducing how much they put into the economy," he added.

"All of those things are going to contribute to whether we have a recession."

In the last two weeks, four banks in the United States and one in Europe have either found themselves teetering on the brink or completely collapsed. In response, other private banks and governments all over the world have rushed to try to contain the potential financial contagion. On Sunday, the central banks of Canada, the US, Asia and Europe all agreed to increase money available, which in turn would help banks lend more to each other so they can stay afloat. Today on Front Burner, we are talking to Canadian Jim Stanford. Just how bad this financial crisis could get? How comparable will it be to the 2008 recession? And will this mean for the average Canadian? For transcripts of this series, please visit: https://www.cbc.ca/radio/frontburner/transcripts

ABOUT THE AUTHOR


Jenna Benchetrit is a web journalist for CBC News. Based in Toronto and born in Montreal, she holds a master's degree in journalism from Ryerson University. Reach her at jenna.benchetrit@cbc.ca or on Twitter @jennabenchetrit.

With files from Peter Armstrong, Laura MacNaughton and Reuters

 

 

1574 Comments 

 

 
Marshall Upton  
SVB was running their business with a philosophy first and profits second. It turned out real well.
 
 
Todd Starnes 
Reply to Marshall Upton 
They made bad decisions, and were caught with their pants down when interest rates went up. The Fed kept saying that inflation was "transitory", then realized, "holy cow inflation isout of control!", and jacked up the rates, causing SVB's unrealized liabilities to make them insolvent. But OK, let's just blame "wokeness", it's easier to understand. 
 
 
Stephen Hay 
Reply to Marshall Upton 
Green. 
 
 
David Amos
Reply to Todd Starnes
Methinks many would agree that the true blame belongs to all the political lawyers operating within the banking systems N'esy Pas? 
 
 
Marshall Upton
Reply to Todd Starnes 
So, SVB didn't have their own economists, they just listened to what the Fed said without verifying it with their own data and economists. No, you just simply corroborated my point. Instead of banking for profit, they were banking for something else. 


Marshall Upton
Reply to David Amos
Why are banks listening to political lawyers instead of their economists?  

 
David Amos
Reply to Marshall Upton
Everything is political and it always about the money
 
 
Marshall Upton
Reply to David Amos
They found out it's not as political as they wished it was. 
 
 
David Amos
Reply to Marshall Upton
Tell that to Frank Mckenna or Lisa Rait  
 
 
Marshall Upton
Reply to David Amos
Why? They don't know it? They own or run banks? 
 
 
David Amos
Reply to Marshall Upton 
They run them 
 
 
David Amos
Reply to David Amos 
Lisa Raitt. Vice-Chair of Global Investment Banking at CIBC

The Honourable Frank McKenna has been an executive with TD Bank Group since 2006 and joined TD Securities in January 2020. As Deputy Chair he is focused on supporting the continued expansion of TD Securities' global footprint. 

 
Marshall Upton
Reply to David Amos
They do?  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
jeff johnson 
What a ridiculous irresponsible headline. Why doesn't the cbc just ask people to start a run on the banks. 
 
 
Todd Starnes 
Reply to jeff johnson
Most people are too lazy to walk to the bank, let alone run to it.   
 
 
David Amos
Reply to Todd Starnes
True I used my mouse to take my money out  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Allan J Whitney
How is the Biden presidency working out for all you fans?

That's great. 

 
Todd Starnes
Reply to Allan J Whitney 
There are no Biden fans, just Trump haters and Trump lovers.  
 
 
cedric thomas 
Reply to Todd Starnes 
I think you're right. I can understand American voters being polarized around the guy, but Canadians?

Crazy.

 
Todd Starnes
Reply to cedric thomas 
There are no Canadians, just pseudo Americans with Canadian passports... well except for Gordon Lightfoot, he's Canadian.  
 
 
cedric thomas 
Reply to Todd Starnes
I suppose you're right. We all watch American television and huddle around the border.  
 
 
Todd Starnes
Reply to cedric thomas 
And to be fair, we are all polarized about our leader, Justin Bieber.
 
 
Erica Bene 
Reply to Todd Starnes 
I am a Biden fan... 
 
 
Todd Starnes
Reply to Erica Bene 
OK, Name one good thing about him?
 
 
Denis Van Humbeck 
Reply to Allan J Whitney  
Trump was bad.
 
 
Mike Hamilton 
Reply to Todd Starnes 
I good thing about Biden? He isn't Trump.
 
 
Todd Starnes
Reply to Mike Hamilton 
That was my original point. I'm glad you understood.
 
 
David Amos
Reply to Todd Starnes   
At least I did and agreed 
 
 
Chris Smith  
Reply to Allan J Whitney
This is the direct result of a Trump partial reversal of Dodd-Frank banking reforms... 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Todd Starnes   
Hypothetically, if my checking account is overdrawn and TD bank goes belly up, do I still have to pay them back? Hypothetically of course, I would nnneeevvvverrr run an overdraft, say due to drinking at the local bar every night. Never, never, never. 
 
 
David Amos
Reply to Todd Starnes  
Yes and No 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Rusty Shackleford
"Banks are in turmoil." No they're not....They're avoiding turmoil...mostly successfully, by the way. 
This sensationalist, American style of journalism has to stop. We deserve (and pay for) better.  
 
 
Don Mann 
Reply to Rusty Shackleford
Well said !
 
 
Lucas Kendall 
Reply to Rusty Shackleford  
Well they are "trying" to avoid turmoil. 
 
 
Frank Jackson  
Reply to Rusty Shackleford 
I said the same thing that this site writes about fear and this issue is nowhere close to 2008 and of course they did not allow it.  
 
 
Chung Poo 
Reply to Rusty Shackleford 
It is actually CBC trying to avoid turmoil with said sensationalist headlines that draw clicks... Sad but the road we are driving.  
 
 
Michael Richard
Reply to Rusty Shackleford  
There is no such thing as news anymore. Every single headline is AI generated to maximize click through with no concern for dignity.  
 
 
steve wilson  
Reply to Michael Richard
Proof? Social media nonsense?  
 
 
steve wilson  
Reply to Michael Richard
So you work in mainstream media, ie this news outlet, and have personal knowledge of this? 
 
 
steve wilson  
Reply to Michael Richard
Complete nonsense ... give me proof. Do you work for a REAL news outlet? Is that coming from personal experience? No? Thought so...
 
 
David Amos
Reply to Rusty Shackleford 
Dream on 


Derek Golota 
Reply to Rusty Shackleford 
 yep, if anything it was a good time to pick up discounted bank shares ETF like RBNK or ZEB and enjoy dividends going forward. Financial illiteracy in Canada is quite obvious and at full display again. 
 
 
Dano Pereriya
Reply to Rusty Shackleford
Not in turmoil, yet. They have approved and allowed people to be heavily leveraged in mortgages. Look at the variable rate mortgages, almost 20% of them have reached a trigger rate, meaning they are negatively gaining years! We all spend more money than we have, living well beyond our means, the banks are ok taking our money and we are ok spending on credit. 
 
 
Peter Ryerson
Reply to Rusty Shackleford
We’ll see how this story plays out.

😆



 
 
 
Todd Starnes  
Turmoil - "a state of great disturbance, confusion, or uncertainty." That's not the banks, that's my life. 
 
 
David Amos
Reply to Todd Starnes 
That is the story of my life
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Denis Van Humbeck  
A market like 2008 is needed, we need to see fuel prices plummet along with food prices.
 
 
James Minion 
Reply to Denis Van Humbeck  
It’ll just hit Canada way harder than the US and most of the world this time around compared to the opposite 15 years ago 
 
 
Todd Starnes 
Reply to Denis Van Humbeck 
2008 was great for me. I paid off all of my debt using 0% teaser rates. The trick is to maintain employment. Which as I look around this room, won't be too difficult for me.  
 
 
David Amos
Reply to Denis Van Humbeck 
I concur 


David Amos
Reply to Todd Starnes  
Why work?  
 
 
Todd Starnes 
Reply to David Amos  
It's true, in 2023 who works anymore; 2 zoom calls and 5 emails (from the comfort of the living room sofa) is a considered rough day.
 
 
David Amos
Reply to Todd Starnes  
Trust that I had I giving a lot of lawyers and beancounters a very rough day during my last Zoom call and my email today was a dilly to say the least 
 
 
David Amos
Reply to David Amos 
I had "Fun giving" 
 
 
 
 


John Johnston
Canadian Banks are not in Turmoil. 
 
 
Todd Starnes 
Reply to John Johnston 
It's true, this is about American banks. I'm here since they allowed comments and these type of articles usually bring all the Loonies. It's so much fun.  
 
 
John Johnston 
Reply to Todd Starnes
Most people here cannot make change at a lemonade stand but they understand International Economics. Cheap entertainment. :)
 
 
Todd Starnes 
Reply to John Johnston 
That's true and Canadian Lemonade stands are better regulated than American Banks.   
 
 
mike potter 
Reply to John Johnston  
Would we know if they were?  
 
 
John Johnston 
Reply to mike potter 
Still have all my money.  
 
 
David Amos
Reply to mike potter
Nope 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
John Johnston 
Would you put all you money in a place Called "Bobs Bank"? I don't feel sorry for Americans. 
 
 
David Amos
Reply to John Johnston
I don't
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Ian Brodie-Brown
2008 and Canadian banks - three things come to mind. 1. Famously the worlds largest Oil company at the time walked their accounts across Wall St, from an American bank to RBC. (I wonder if they are still there or perhaps after Swiss bank failure will Canadian banks grow again?) 2. In the darkest days of the housing struggle due to all the bad mortgage paper, the Fed Gov in Canada back stopped $50 billion in mortgages, taking the lowest 25% that could potentially go bad off the hands of any bank that wanted to secure themselves against (potential) default. (Few needed to take the credit and mortgages were reassumed by banks as the crisis waned). 3. The IMF was going to force Jamaica into default, the BNS assumed a $500 million dollar debt to the IMF on behalf of the Jamaican Gov. (How strong are our Banks? Strong enough to assume the lending of the IMF on smaller nations national debt. Because the Caricom and Latin nations are a huge part of Canadian banking and our banks bring stability to them as well. 
 
There is a 150 year anniversary history on the BMO that was commissioned by the Chairman of the bank back in the 1960”s - to commemorate the first 150 years - it is a very rare 2 volume hardback which goes a long way to explain why our early Scottish bankers were the very best in the world and while banks were failing in the UK - the Canadian versions, smaller and regional, were taking lessons from their larger cousins and putting in place checks and balances that are unique in the banking world
 
 
Dawn Mack   
Reply to Ian Brodie-Brown 
Thank you. Feel better reading your information. 
 
 
Ian Brodie-Brown 
Reply to Dawn Mack  
You’re welcome - BMO is great book on banking history (and Canadian) if you can find it  
 
 
David Amos
Reply to Ian Brodie-Brown
Did you find me mentioned in that book? 
 
 
 
James Minion 
Reply to
Reply to James Minion 

Sorry TD bank is down 14% in last month and at a 1 year low. Guess it’s skyrocketing in your eyes lol

Once you understand the difference between up and down there might be a proper business conversation possible with you

Reply to James Minion   
Oh, a one year low? The horror. You mean it dropped to where it was just last year? So not the lowest in a decade or anything?

 Dropping because of an irrational market is a great buying opportunity.

 
James Minion 
Reply to Peter Hill
 
James Minion 
Reply to Peter Hill  
When stocks are plummeting you can keep buying lower and lower and lower for years. Maybe you should understand bankruptcy and defaulting since that can happen to corporations when they have too much debt compared to assets. Just a matter of time when credit tightens and recession hits and people lose jobs And can’t pay mortgage and are forced to sell. Banks will lose on foreclosures as housing prices plummet. Will start being common in 2024 but looking at the full picture and the future doesn’t work for you.

Peter I’m sure you think the govt will bail them out    

 
David Amos
Reply to James Minion 
Methinks its not wise to bet on anything these days N'esy Pas? 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
John Chabot 
Under Harper, the world was in turmoil, Canada sailed through it barely noticing a thing, why? Harper government prioritize Canadians, governed with Canadians’ interests and focused on Canada. Today, Canada faces homemade crisis after crisis, vulnerable to any negative economic trends, thanks to those voting for Trudeau  
 
 
Larry McCarthy
Reply to John Chabot   
Isn't that the same guy who "balanced" his budgets from the EI fund?  
 
 
Mike Hamilton 
Reply to John Chabot
Didn't he vote against the same banking regulations that allowed Canada to sail through it so easily? 
 
 
Ian Brodie-Brown 
Reply to Larry McCarthy 
…and hid in a closet and jumped out a window … 
 
 
bob zoolo  
Reply to John Chabot  
I guess you missed this part, Canadians don't have much to worry about, according to Schamotta, because our banking system is "far more secure, far more diversified and far more regulated," than those of the U.S. or Europe.
 
 
bob zoolo  
Reply to John Chabot 
Harper was quoted as admiring the unregulated US banking system , Thank goodness he wasn't in power before 2008 or we'd be in the same boat as the US in 2008 and now 
 
 
Mike Hamilton 
Reply to bob zoolo 
And he called himself an economist, that was funny.  
 
 
bob zoolo   
Reply to John Chabot  
but conservatives always like to rewrite history 
 
 
Peter Hill
Reply to John Chabot   
You mean Harper had two recessions and we haven’t had one since he left? We know. 
 
 
mike potter
Reply to John Chabot  
According to USA economists, It's the revenue from overcharging on banking service charges. Harper's contribution seems to be nothing more than Conservative imagination. 
 
 
David Amos
Reply to John Chabot   
Pure D BS  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Blair Longstaff  
I have been saying this for quite sometime, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) is a very incompetent organization and do not have qualified staff to even understand real banking issues.

Our organization just spent a considerable amount of time teaching OSFI about the risks with climate change etc. and they still do not get it. OSFI did a presentation on Monday and spoke in general terms lifting messages from previous other documents that spoke about things like the Board needs to understand climate risks. Its a joke

Freeland needs to overhaul this mess

 
James Minion 
Reply to Blair Longstaff  
OSFI needs to start tightening Canadian bank lending ASAP.

Freeland doesn’t understand the difference between loose spending and tightening spending and tightening lending. 

 
David Amos
Reply to Blair Longstaff  
Surely you jest  
 
 
David Amos
Reply to James Minion 
Freeland doesn't understand anything  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
James Minion
Canadian banks now have massive derivative use and huge exposure to Canadian housing issues via variable rate mortgages and mortgage fraud. The US is fine but Canadian banks in the last 6 years copied all the mistakes US banks did from 02-07 
 
 
Ian Brodie-Brown 
Reply to James Minion
ABCP? Seems someone doesn’t know what they are talking about? 
 
 
Peter Hill
Reply to James Minion
Then why are Canadian banks not having any issues?   
 
 
James Minion 
Reply to Ian Brodie-Brown 
Asset Backed commercial debt is not the same as Canada’s mortgage debt.

24% of Canadian mortgages are variable rate where most Canadians are telling the banks I can’t handle the extra $2 or $3 k a month in interest or even $200 more s month. Canadian Banks aren’t forcing people to pay interest on mortgages just like US banks did in 07.

A lot of these mortgages are backed up by the CMHC or rally the federal government or at the end of the day the ‘Canadian taxpayers’

Also Canada has the highest household debt to income ratio in the world and corporate debt in Canada per capita is way higher here than the US

 
Ian Brodie-Brown 
Reply to James Minion
See the solution listed below - the cause in the US was ABCP - read your own words   
 
 
James Minion 
Reply to Peter Hill
Peter, the Canadian banks are having issues, they’re just covering them up right now. Best for you to come back to that question in 12-18 months and you might understand then.

Canadian banks are where the US banks were in March 07. Most Americans didn’t think a American banking crises would happen within 18 months so I can see why your so far in the dark

 
Ian Brodie-Brown 
Reply to James Minion
Read number 2 below - you might learn something - comparing Canadian banks to American banks is not like apples and oranges, it is more like comparing apples to Alaska.  
 
 
Peter Hill 
Reply to James Minion
Except they’re not where American banks were in 2007. 
 
 
James Minion 
Reply to Ian Brodie-Brown  
The cause in the US in 08 was teaser rate mortgages (variable rate mortgages) which Canada has tonnes of now. About 24% of all Canadian mortgages are variable/teaser rates.

What happened last week on two US bank was ABCP but that’s much less risk than what happened to Swiss bank or what happened in 08

 
James Minion 
Reply to Peter Hill 
Peter, enjoy your investments in Canadian banks. They’ve only dropped over 15% in the last month so sounds like you’ll be in amazing shape putting all your savings into their stocks  
 
 
Peter Hill 
Reply to James Minion
I’ve been buying more. No better time to buy Canadian bank stocks than when the irrational market drops the share price. Add in the DRIP and I’ll be able to travel more than I have been lately.  
 
 
James Minion 
Reply to Peter Hill  
You might be able to travel around Canada more via greyhound but internationally it’ll costs you way more in Canadian dollars as the loonie is plummeting against all major currencies. Enjoy all your road-trips in Canada.

The dividend going into Drip will drop to in the following years. Keep buying the bank stock dips since they’ll continue for quite a while. Hope your not crying too hard m about them in a year or two if your actually investing in them lol 

 
Peter Hill 
Reply to James Minion
Nope, exclusively international travel. Exchange rate doesn’t bother me because of all the money I make from my bank stocks. Dividends at Canadian banks have never decreased, only increased. Even through times off turmoil which isn’t these days. Probably going to increase dividends more than usual for the next couple of years.  
 
 
James Minion 
Reply to Peter Hill 
Hope you put your life savings in the Canadian banking stocks now. The Canadian bank stocks now are as safe as a Canadian making $100 k a year that took out a $1 M mortgage in 2021 at 1% variable rates. Now that variable rates are 5.5% minimum it’s only an extra 45 k a year in interest in a 100 k salary before taxes. Peter, Sounds very very sound in your playbook. Also this isn’t the exception this was the common mortgage Loan in Toronto and Vancouver the last two years   
 
 
David Amos
Reply to James Minion
Methinks you should check my work N'esy Pas?
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Joe Freeman 
How did this happen?

It was caused by regulation, fractional reserve and then selling the derivatives on debt. Basically more money in the system than actually exists  

 
Todd Starnes 
Reply to Joe Freeman 
If there is so much money in the system, why are we all broke? Sorry, gotta run, the new iPhone 17-1/2 is coming out tomorrow and I need to line up at the ApeHole store.  
 
 
Peter Hill 
Reply to Joe Freeman
You mean things that happen everyday without issue. 
 
 
Joe Freeman
Reply to Peter Hill 
Until the customers claim their rightful property 
 
 
Peter Hill 
Reply to Joe Freeman
Because Canadians have so much money in the bank? I guess that explains why our economy is so good.
Reply to Peter Hill 
Nope

Reply to Joe Freeman
Go Figure
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Anthony Loopinski 
When you bulk at taxes, the government just taxes you through inflation. The largest transfer of wealth in history, and you all missed it... 
 
 
Peter Hill  
Reply to Anthony Loopinski
Because inflation hurts the wealthy the most. 
Reply to Peter Hill 
Nope
 
Lucas Kendall 
Remember "Banking is built on confidence." and not something tangible. It is as legitimate as crypto currencies that are also "built on confidence"  
 
 
Todd Starnes 
Reply to Lucas Kendall  
I'm confident that the Crypto Ponzi will never collapse.
 
 
Ian Brodie-Brown 
Reply to Lucas Kendall  
Sorry clepto currencies and banking do not belong in the same course curriculum …. Nice3 try though … 
 
 
Lucas Kendall 
Reply to Ian Brodie-Brown
They are both forms of speculation and risk taking where you can lose everything so why not? 
Reply to Lucas Kendall 
Good question  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Todd Starnes 
Money is Trust. How is your trust level lately? 
 
 
Peter Hill 
Reply to Todd Starnes 
If you don’t trust money I’ll take it off your hands. 
 
 
Todd Starnes 
Reply to Peter Hill
I trust you even less. 

Reply to Todd Starnes  
You are a wise guy     
 
 
 

 

 

 

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