David Raymond Amos@DavidRayAmos
Replying to @DavidRayAmos@alllibertynews and 49 others
Methinks "The Donald"
is neither stable nor a genius but the fact he won
and is high in the polls going into a
reelection campaign speaks volumes about his political
rivals N'esy Pas?
Trump's approval ratings are hovering around 40%. Here's how he could win in 2020 anyway
2728 Comments Commenting is now closed for this story.
Arthur Wellesley his approval rating is really that high? Sad. it should be zero.
David Amos Reply to @Arthur Wellesley: "his approval rating is really that high?"
Surprise Surprise Surprise
David Sampson Anyone who declares themselves a stable genius is neither stable nor a genius.
David Amos Reply
to @David Sampson: Methinks the strange Yankee they call "The Donald"
is neither stable nor a genius but obviously clever enough to win one of
the biggest jobs in the world and be high in the polls going into a
reelection campaign That simple fact speaks volumes about his political
rivals N'esy Pas?
Jeffrey Wayne If Trump is re-elected it says more about the electorate than Trump himself.
David Amos Reply to @Jeffrey Wayne: Methinks many would agree that is says more about his political opponents N'esy Pas?
Trump's approval ratings are hovering around 40%. Here's how he could win in 2020 anyway
The U.S. president is set to officially kick off his re-election bid at a rally in Orlando, Fla.
U.S.
President Donald Trump is set to officially kick off his re-election
campaign on Tuesday. His poll numbers aren't very good, but he has
several important factors working in his favour. (Kevin Lamarque/Reuters)
When U.S. President Donald Trump
officially launches his re-election campaign in Orlando, Fla., Tuesday
night in front of a crowd of up to 20,000 supporters, he will be neither
a favourite nor an underdog.
In fact, some experts say it's pretty much a toss-up at this point whether Trump keeps his job or not.
"I'd
put it at maybe 50/50," said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato's
Crystal Ball, a non-partisan political newsletter produced at the
University of Virginia Center for Politics.
On the surface, that assessment might seem generous.
Trump's national approval rating hovers around 40 per cent. The only president since 1945 who had a lower approval rating at this stage of his first term was Jimmy Carter in 1977, and his re-election bid didn't turn out so well.
That said, approval ratings aren't always the best predictor of electoral success. According to the same analysis by FiveThirtyEight,
President George H.W. Bush was sitting near 70 per cent at this point
in his first term, only to be soundly defeated by Democrat Bill Clinton
in 1992.
Internal
polling produced by Trump's campaign — and leaked in various media
reports — shows Trump trailing potential Democratic nominees in crucial
states. When it comes to a potential matchup with former vice-president
Joe Biden, the situation looks especially bleak for the president. NBC reports
that in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida and Michigan, Trump trails
Biden by double digits.
The president has dismissed the polls as "fake,"
but he appears rattled. The campaign fired three pollsters, reportedly
because Trump was unhappy with the leaks.
But don't go ruling
Trump out at this early stage. And not just because Trump was
underestimated in 2016 and no one wants to make that mistake again.
In
order to win, Trump needs to keep or expand his base in key states that
he won narrowly in 2016. It's a tall order, but there are several
important factors that could propel Trump to a second victory despite
his relative unpopularity.
Not least of which is the fact that he
has the job already. Incumbency is powerful, especially when a sitting
president presides over a decent economy in a time of relative peace.
"Those are the sorts of conditions suggestive of an incumbent president that should be able to win re-election," Kondik said.
One factor that could help Trump's re-election campaign is the strength of the U.S. economy. (Richard Drew/Associated Press)
For
the most part, Americans feel good about the economy, according to
Christopher P. Borick, director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of
Public Opinion in Allentown, Pa., citing low unemployment as a
particularly bright spot.
But Borick says that economic confidence is uneven in places like Pennsylvania. Voters working in industries that have been negatively affected by Trump's tariff-fuelled trade war with China, including some in the manufacturing sector, for example, may be less inclined to support the president.
"There are concerns when we ask about tariffs. They are not popular generally," Borick said.
But overall, he says, the economy is a strength for the president.
A head start
Another strength for Trump's re-election bid is organization.
Back
in 2016, Trump didn't have the full support of the Republican Party.
Now he does. That means armies of volunteers collecting troves of data.
Politico reports the Trump campaign already has boots on the ground in nine key regions.
The
campaign has also already amassed a war chest of more than $40 million,
with cash from the Republican National Committee doubling the total.
And, as Borick put it, "Money always matters."
According
to the New York Times, Trump has already spent $5 million on Facebook
advertising alone.
That's more than any of the Democratic hopefuls, who
are busy competing against each other for donation dollars to be spent
trying to win their party's nomination. Meanwhile, Trump has Republican
wallets locked up and only needs to worry about spending in the general
election.
Trump's supporters have proven to be passionate and loyal. (Kim Brunhuber/CBC)
Trump has media on his side, too — some of it, anyway.
Trump-friendly
coverage on Fox News and conservative talk radio is largely preaching
to the converted, and probably won't bring the president many new
voters. But supporters who rely on those sources may be sheltered from
negative stories about the president during the campaign, Kondik said.
"If
there are negative developments that emerge about the president, maybe
some of his supporters are not so likely to see those developments, or
see them spun in a positive light."
Waiting for a rival
A
lot can happen in 17 months. Economies can tank, peace can be broken —
especially when a country is in a trade war with China and in an increasingly tense confrontation with Iran. Democrats could start an impeachment process — something the party's leadership has been reluctant to do, partially because they fear the spectacle could boost the president's re-election chances.
Perhaps
the biggest factor we don't know when evaluating Trump's chances of
winning re-election is who he will be running against. There are 23
candidates vying for the Democratic nomination and it could be close to a
year before we know who comes out on top.
One
of the major unknowns is which of the nearly two-dozen candidates
running for the Democratic Party's presidential nomination will be
chosen to take on Trump. (CBC)
If
Trump runs against either Sen. Elizabeth Warren or Sen. Bernie Sanders,
expect him to paint his Democratic opponent as dangerously to the left
and bent on taking America on a path toward socialism. And we've already
gotten a taste of how Trump would combat Biden, mocking the 76-year-old
as "weak mentally" and saying that "he acts and looks different than he
used to."
Another thing we don't know is how engaged Americans will be after several years of relentless White House drama.
This is a country suffering from political fatigue, Borick said.
"Those
who hate president Trump or love president Trump will probably rally
around their respective camps," he said. "But for those who are in the
middle, how this period wears on them and what it means for their
engagement is going to be important."
Lyndsay
Duncombe is senior Washington editor for CBC News. She travelled
extensively throughout the historic 2016 U.S. election campaign, and
co-ordinates coverage of U.S. politics for all CBC platforms.
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