Mark Carney dominated the race to replace Justin Trudeau. Now what?
Once Carney is settled into his new role, Governor General must swear him in
In something of a political blowout, Mark Carney was elected on Sunday as leader of the Liberal Party and as the next prime minister.
He won with 85.9 per cent of the votes, a larger margin than many expected — even though he was the clear front-runner throughout the race.
His win was bigger than what outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had after his own leadership race in 2013, despite having more than half the amount of time to campaign.
It means Carney has a strong mandate heading into political office for the first time.
Here's what comes next for Carney, the Liberals and Canadian politics in general.
Is Carney the prime minister now?
No. He has to be sworn in first by Gov. Gen. Mary Simon.
Until then, Carney is the prime minister-designate. A date hasn't been set for him to take office.
Why the new Liberal leader isn’t prime minister right awaySo, Trudeau is still prime minister?
Yes. Trudeau has said he'll stay in the job for a few days or weeks to help with the transition. Once Carney is sworn in, Trudeau will officially resign.
Calls to determine who will work in Carney's Prime Minister's Office have already been happening, sources have told CBC News.
How did Justin Trudeau change Canada?Does this mean we're having a federal election?
It certainly looks like we're heading that way. When exactly an election might happen, though, is less clear.
Carney is not currently an elected MP and doesn't have a seat in the House of Commons.
That has raised speculation — and hints from Carney himself — that an election will be called soon, even before Parliament is scheduled to return on March 24.
Before he can make that call, Carney will have to appoint a cabinet. Whether he keeps Trudeau's current cabinet largely intact or chooses his own temporary team will be closely watched.
What about Trump's tariff threats?
In his victory speech, Carney vowed to continue to stand up against U.S. President Donald Trump's ongoing tariff threats against Canadian goods entering the United States, which Carney said were "attacking Canadian workers, families, and businesses."
"My government will keep our tariffs on until the Americans show us respect — and make credible, reliable commitments to free and fair trade," he said.
What about leadership candidates who didn't win?
Former finance minister Chrystia Freeland came in a distant second on Sunday. On her way out of Rogers Centre in Ottawa, she told reporters in French that she will run in the next federal election.
As for whether she'll have a role in a Carney government, Freeland said it's up to the leader to choose who he wants at his side.
Liberals are in ‘excellent position’ to win next election, Freeland says after Carney’s winNew party leaders often make a point of including the second-place finisher in their government as a show of party unity. But Freeland got just eight per cent of the vote on the first ballot, so it's unclear what that means for her future.
Karina Gould, who left her role as Liberal House leader to take a run at the party's top job, said she plans to run again in the next federal election. She placed third on Sunday with 3.2 per cent of the vote.
Frank Baylis, a Montreal businessman and former MP, placed fourth in the race with just three per cent of the vote. He told CBC News he'd be "very happy to support Mr. Carney in whatever way" the leader thinks best.
At Issue | Carney’s landslide Liberal victoryABOUT THE AUTHOR
With files from Benjamin Lopez Steven and Michael Woods
What polls say about a Carney vs. Poilievre election
Banker Mark Carney Wins Race to Lead Liberal Party, and Canada
Mark Carney, 59, who steered the Bank of Canada through the 2008 global financial crisis and the Bank of England through Brexit, but who has never been elected to office, won a leadership race on Sunday against his friend and former finance minister, Chrystia Freeland.
He won a stunning 85.9 percent of the votes cast by Liberal Party members. More than 150,000 people voted, according to the party’s leaders.
Mark Carney Set to Lead Canada and Take On Trump
As President Trump threatens to make Canada the 51st state, the Liberal Party chose the former central banker to succeed Justin Trudeau as prime minister.
“In first place, the next prime minister of Canada, Mark Carney —” “There’s someone who’s trying to weaken our economy. Yeah, Donald Trump. Donald Trump. He’s attacking Canadian families, workers and businesses, and we cannot let him succeed. The Americans want our resources, our water, our land, our country. Canada never, ever will be part of America in any way, shape or form. Who’s ready to stand up for Canada with me?”
As President Trump threatens to make Canada the 51st state, the Liberal Party chose the former central banker to succeed Justin Trudeau as prime minister.CreditCredit...Cole Burston for The New York Times
“America is not Canada. And Canada never, ever will be part of America in any way, shape or form,” Mr. Carney said in his acceptance speech on Sunday evening to an electric crowd of party faithful, directly addressing Mr. Trump’s constant threat that he wants to make Canada the 51st state. “We didn’t ask for this fight, but Canadians are always ready when someone else drops the gloves.”
“So Americans should make no mistake,’’ Mr. Carney added. “In trade, as in hockey, Canada will win.”
He is expected to be sworn in as prime minister quickly, early this week, officially ending the Trudeau era. His first and most pressing challenge will be to manage the threat from Mr. Trump to Canada’s economy and sovereignty.
But, because Mr. Carney does not hold a seat in Parliament, he is expected to call federal elections soon after being sworn in as prime minister. In those elections, he will face off with Pierre Poilievre, the leader of the Conservative Party.
It’s a crucial moment to be taking the wheel in Canada, a member of NATO and the Group of 7 industrialized nations and the world’s second-largest country by land mass.
- March 6 Suspended many of the tariffs imposed on Canada and Mexico ›
- March 5 Paused tariffs on cars from Canada and Mexico for a month ›
- March 5 Accused Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada of imposing tariffs on the U.S. “to stay in power” ›
- March 4 Imposed 25 percent tariffs on all imports from Canada and Mexico and a 10 percent tariff on all imports from China, sending shock waves through the economy ›
- March 1 Ordered an increase in U.S. lumber production ›
- Feb. 27 Said that tariffs on Mexico and Canada would go into effect on March 4 ›
- Feb. 3 Delayed tariffs on Canada ›
- Feb. 3 Delayed tariffs on Mexico ›
- Feb. 1 Officially announced tariffs on imports from Canada ›
- Feb. 1 Officially announced tariffs on imports from Mexico ›
- Jan. 21 Promised to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico ›
Mr. Trump has put his thumb on Canadian politics, through his on-again-off-again pursuit of tariffs against Canadian goods, which threaten to cripple the economy, and his menacing comments about annexation.
Mr. Trudeau summarized the mood within his own party, and much of Canadian society, speaking at the Liberal Party convention to an adoring crowd in Ottawa just before his successor was announced.
“This is a nation-defining moment. Democracy is not a given. Freedom is not a given,” Mr. Trudeau said. “Even Canada is not a given.”
Mr. Carney said he supported the retaliatory tariffs Canada has adopted. “My government will keep our tariffs on until the Americans show us respect,” he said.
Federal elections must be held by October in line with Canada’s rules. The Conservative Party, led by Mr. Poilievre, had long maintained a 20-plus point lead over the Liberals in polls, but the gap has been closing since Mr. Trudeau announced his resignation and Mr. Trump started making moves against Canada.
The latest polling suggests that most respondents would choose Mr. Carney over Mr. Poilievre if he led the Liberal Party into the elections. Polling also shows that Canadians would prefer Mr. Carney to negotiate with Mr. Trump over Mr. Poilievre. Mr. Poilievre has suffered a serious setback in polls, as some voters see him as too close ideologically to Mr. Trump.
And on Sunday night, Mr. Carney quickly pivoted to federal election campaign rhetoric to attack Mr. Poilievre, casting him as devoid of real-world experience and too admiring of Mr. Trump to challenge him.
Mr. Carney’s experience in handling major crises as a technocrat could also be giving him an advantage over Mr. Poilievre in people’s perceptions. Mr. Poilievre, 45, has been a lifelong politician without much experience outside Canada’s parliamentary rough and tumble.
The Liberal Party establishment rallied around Mr. Carney’s campaign against Ms. Freeland, a former top lieutenant of Mr. Trudeau’s, whose resignation in December triggered Mr. Trudeau’s own decision to step down.
And it has been clear that the Conservative Party also sees Mr. Carney as the bigger threat: It has been running negative ads against him, focusing on his personal wealth and investing decisions.
A key question will be whether Mr. Carney can sufficiently differentiate himself from Mr. Trudeau, whom he advised and was friendly with. Canadians want change after a decade of Mr. Trudeau, and the Conservative Party has been highlighting the personal and ideological links between the two men.
Apart from Mr. Trump, Canada faces a slew of problems for which many voters blame Mr. Trudeau, foremost being an affordability crisis, with housing and cost of living crushing for many Canadians.
But broader, more existential problems about how Canada is run are pressing, too. One is how to use Canada’s vast natural resources, including oil, gas and coal, as well as the vital fertilizer ingredient potash, rare minerals and uranium needed for nuclear energy.
Mr. Carney, in the years after his monetary policymaking career, emerged as a global evangelist for green investment, and he will need to decide how to make use of Canada’s tremendous natural endowments.
Immigration has been another key issue for Canadians. The country has historically been open both to economic migrants and to refugees, but, after the pandemic, Mr. Trudeau oversaw a rapid growth of temporary migration into Canada to help fill a labor shortage.
In his acceptance speech, Mr. Carney also sought to brandish his Liberal credentials and convince people that, despite having made a fortune in finance, he is still a progressive, attuned to the party’s DNA.
“I know that markets don’t have values, people do,” he said. “When markets are governed well, they deliver great jobs and strong growth better than anything. But markets are also indifferent to human suffering and are blind to our greatest needs,” he added.
Matina Stevis-Gridneff is the Canada bureau chief for The Times, leading coverage of the country. More about Matina Stevis-Gridneff
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