This election, the NDP could be fighting for its own survival
Party says it's a 'volatile' time as CBC Poll Tracker shows support under 12%
In a "get ready with me" video posted this week, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh twists his long hair under his turban and talks about his life before politics.
"I went out and got three minimum-wage jobs … to put food on the table," he says to the camera.
The TikTok video is similar to the way he introduced himself to Canadians in his first election as leader in 2019. Now he's entering his third campaign.
"I struggled hard … I'm going to fight for you," he says.
The NDP — and its leader — could be in one of their toughest battles yet.
Singh
posted a 'get ready with me' video on TikTok this week, making his
pitch to voters days before an election is expected to be called. (Jagmeet Singh/TikTok)
Recent polling suggests the New Democrats' popularity has fallen to its lowest level in decades, according to Éric Grenier, who runs CBC's Poll Tracker, which aggregates public opinion polling.
"The NDP support has just tanked over the last few weeks, and they are in serious trouble," Grenier said.
His data suggests the NDP's support is now under 12 per cent and that the NDP could lose roughly three-quarters of its 24 seats in the House of Commons. Singh's own riding — and the party's official status — are at risk.
"You probably have to go back to the 1990s to find the NDP polling so poorly," Grenier said.
"If the NDP continues to poll at this level for a steady, consistent amount of time, the NDP could be on track for one of its worst results in at least 30 years."
Singh was asked about his party's fortunes on Thursday in Hamilton.
"This is a very important election, and I know that Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre would want nothing better than for the NDP to disappear," Singh said.
"We're not going anywhere."
Shaking Justin Trudeau
New Liberal Leader Mark Carney is likely part of the reason for the NDP's recent slide, Grenier said.
"To see how quickly the NDP vote tanked with the change of [Liberal] leadership suggests that a lot of those voters were parking their vote with the NDP. But as soon as another alternative popped up, they were ready to abandon the party," he said.
And while the Liberals have done away with Justin Trudeau, it's not clear that Singh has done away with his own association with the former prime minister.
Through a supply-and-confidence agreement, the NDP kept the Liberal minority afloat for more than two years by agreeing to vote with them on key legislation.
In return, the Liberals agreed to support major social programs like dental and pharmacare. The New Democrats regularly point to these as significant policy wins for a party with only 24 MPs.
But that might not be resonating with Canadians. On Vancouver Island, where New Democrats hold the majority of the seats, some voters say their message isn't landing.
"I have over the years voted NDP, but I'm going to vote Liberal because I really think that they need every vote," said Robyn Austin.
"The federal NDP has done some good work, but its messaging and branding have not been on point," said Farrell Gilmour, who is leaning toward voting NDP. "They haven't been able to really take credit for some of the wins."
Nawal Lasfar says she is voting Conservative.
"They kept the Liberal Party in power. And for that reason, I would not vote for them," Lasfar said.
Levelling the playing field
Jennifer Howard, the New Democrats' national campaign director, said the election will give the party another chance to get its message out to voters.
Once the campaign begins, political parties have spending limits for advertising — and the party says its war chest is large enough to meet those limits.
"We will be on the same level playing ground as the other parties," she said.
In 2024, the NDP raised $6.2 million, less than half the Liberals' total and dwarfed by the $41.7 million the Conservatives raised.
Singh's
campaign bus is seen at a hotel near the airport in Ottawa on Thursday.
The party's campaign director says the NDP is 'the readiest' it's ever
been for an election. (Patrick Doyle/Canadian Press)
But Howard and others within the party have been keen to point out that the NDP is going into this election in the best financial shape since Singh became leader.
They're ready to spend up to $34 million — some of it borrowed.
"It has been a very volatile time, I think, for everyone who has been watching the polls. We're not in the same place we were months ago," Howard said.
"That also tells me that things can change quickly … we're going to see some more change before the dust settles."
Trump as the ballot box question
That volatility — largely coming from the U.S. president — means core NDP campaign issues, like affordability and housing, might no longer be at the top of voters' minds.
Former NDP campaign director Brad Lavigne said the party must devise a plan to "meet the moment" to respond to President Donald Trump's threats to Canada's economy and sovereignty.
"The ballot question for this federal election will be who is best in the prime minister's chair and the federal government to tackle Donald Trump and the tariffs," Lavigne said.
This will be Singh's third election as leader of the New Democrats. (Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press)
As Carney moves the Liberal Party's policies to the right of Trudeau, there could be an opportunity for Singh to pick up support from progressive voters, Lavigne said.
"We'll see in the coming days, as this election unfolds, whether or not he can seize it."
'Fight like his future leadership is on the line'
This will likely be a defining election for Singh.
When he became leader in 2017, Lavigne said there was hope Singh could break into untapped voters, particularly with the younger and suburban electorate around major urban centres.
But the NDP has lost 20 seats in the House of Commons since then, and over 400,000 fewer Canadians voted for them in 2021 than in 2015 under former leader Tom Mulcair.
"I would suggest that unless Mr. Singh could turn this around, New Democrats are going to have a lot of difficult questions following this election campaign," Lavigne said.
"Mr. Singh needs to fight like his future leadership is on the line."
Asked Thursday about whether he'll step down if he's unable to improve the NDP's results this time, Singh said, "Right now, we're focused on the election in front of us."
NDP
MP Charlie Angus has held the riding of Timmins-James Bay in northern
Ontario for two decades. He will not be running in the next election. (Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press)
As for the party's future, outgoing and longtime New Democrat MP Charlie Angus said the NDP has started campaigns where they have been written off before.
"The first time I ran, I was considered a joke candidate because I was this punk rock kid running in a Liberal bastion. And I've held that riding ever since," said Angus.
"So we're always the underdog. That's okay. We're used to that."
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With files from Claire Palmer
Liberal government announces dental care expansion the day before expected election call
Canadians aged 18 to 64 can apply for the Canadian Dental Care Plan in May
Health Minister Kamal Khera announced on Saturday that Canadians aged 18 to 64 can soon apply for the Liberals' national dental insurance program — a major expansion that comes on the eve of an expected federal election call.
"It's not just about cleaning teeth," Khera said, referring to the Canadian Dental Care Plan (CDCP). "It's about preventative health care, which is saving lives while also saving money."
According to a Health Canada news release, applications will open in May by age group, with coverage starting as early as June 1. Canadians aged 55 to 64 can apply starting on May 1, followed by those aged 18 to 34 on May 15. Finally, Canadians aged 35 to 54 can apply starting on May 29.
In order to qualify for the CDCP, applicants must not have access to dental insurance, have filed their individual 2024 tax return in Canada, have an adjusted family net income of less than $90,000 and be a Canadian resident for tax purposes.
The program helps pay for dental procedures, including cleanings, fillings and dentures.
Health
Minister Kamal Khera, shown in the House of Commons in Ottawa on Oct.
3, 2024, says the federal dental care plan is about preventative health
care, which can save lives. (Patrick Doyle/The Canadian Press)
In its news release, Health Canada said that up to 4.5 million uninsured Canadians between 18 and 64 "are expected to join" the plan — which already covers children, seniors and residents with valid disability tax credits.
For months, it was unclear when the large cohort of Canadians would be allowed to apply for the CDCP. The federal government previously said Canadians aged 18 to 64 would be able to apply in January.
But last October, Mark Holland, who was health minister at the time, walked back that statement.
"We didn't say January. We said 2025," he said at the time.
The Canadian Dental Hygienists Association said in a news release on Saturday that it "applauds" the federal government for expanding access to the dental care program.
"A population that enjoys good oral health eases the burden on the health care system thanks to a reduced need for emergency department and physician visits for urgent dental care," the association said.
Federal election call expected Sunday
Khera's announcement comes one day before Prime Minister Mark Carney is expected to ask the Gov. Gen. Mary Simon to dissolve Parliament and call a federal election.
Sources have confirmed to CBC News that election day will be April 28 — meaning federal parties will be sprinting through the shortest election period possible under Canadian law.
Carney is making the election call against a backdrop of public opinion polls that have placed the Liberal Party just out front in the coming contest.
Prime
Minister Mark Carney gestures as he speaks during a news conference
following a meeting with Canada's premiers, in Ottawa on Friday. (Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press)
When asked why the federal government waited until the day before an expected election call to announce the dental plan expansion, Khera said that "we always knew this was going to be a phased-out approach in terms of a massive program like this that the federal government is rolling out."
"This is a commitment that we made to Canadians, and we're super excited that we're able to deliver on this commitment," she said.
Singh touts NDP's work, criticizes Carney
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh told reporters on Saturday that his party fought hard to get dental care to Canadians and "we can say very proudly, the final phase of the New Democrat dental care plan is being rolled out."
Three years ago, the Liberals agreed to launch a dental care program for middle- and low-income Canadians in exchange for New Democrats propping up the federal government with a supply-and-confidence agreement. The NDP backed out of that agreement in September 2024.
Although Singh celebrated the expansion, he also criticized Carney and argued that "dental care is at risk" since the prime minister has pledged to balance the federal government's operational spending over the next three years.
NDP
Leader Jagmeet Singh speaks to reporters on Dec. 3, 2024. Three years
ago, the Liberals agreed to launch a dental care program in exchange for
support from the New Democrats. (Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press)
In an interview with CBC News earlier this year, Carney said operational spending includes government-run programs, federal transfers to provinces and territories and debt service charges.
"New Democrats believe that dental care is a fundamental part of our health-care system," Singh said. "No one should have had to worry that they couldn't afford to take care of their teeth. No one should have to live in pain because they couldn't afford a dentist."
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With files from Marina von Stackelberg
Carney cancels planned hike to capital gains tax
Lifetime exemption limit still being raised to $1.25M, prime minister says
Prime Minister Mark Carney says his government will cancel the proposed hike to the amount of capital gains that are subject to tax.
In a statement, the Liberal government said that cancelling the increase will help small businesses and boost private investment that will create jobs.
"Cancelling the hike in capital gains tax will catalyze investment across our communities and incentivize builders, innovators and entrepreneurs to grow their businesses in Canada," Carney said in a statement.
The statement also said the government will maintain its increase in the lifetime capital gains exemption limit to $1.25 million "on the sale of small business shares and farming and fishing property."
The Liberal government said it will introduce legislation to formalize changes to the exemption limit "in due course."
The decision to axe the increase follows former prime minister Justin Trudeau's decision to defer it until New Year's Day 2026.
The increase to the share of taxable capital gains was first announced in the 2024 federal budget.
A capital gain is the difference between the cost of an asset — such as an investment property, a stock or a mutual fund — and its sale price.
Right now, only half of capital gains are taxable. Those capital gains are added to a person's income and are taxed at their marginal income tax rate.
Had the changes gone through, individuals with annual capital gains over $250,000 would have had two-thirds of those gains taxed. Two-thirds of all capital gains earned by corporations and trusts would also have been taxed.
Doctors, businesses, Conservatives opposed tax
The legislation to implement the change was still being debated when Parliament was prorogued.
The proposed capital gains changes, like all bills that had yet to receive royal assent, died on the order paper. They would have to be reintroduced at the next session of Parliament as if they never existed.
Since it was first announced, a number of groups have expressed concerns about the capital gains changes.
The Conservatives said they would result in "a tax on health care, home-building, small businesses, farmers and people's retirements."
Doctors also opposed the change, saying it could undermine efforts to recruit and retain physicians.
The Canadian Medical Association (CMA) has said doctors will be hit particularly hard by the hike because they often incorporate their medical practices and invest for their retirements through their corporations.
Canada is facing a severe doctor shortage. An estimated 6.5 million Canadians are going without access to primary care as family physicians retire and medical schools struggle to recruit new residents.
A coalition of Canadian agricultural associations also signed a letter asking the federal government to abandon the change to the capital gains tax, among other measures.
The Canadian Federation of Independent Business said that 72 per cent of its members oppose the change and believe it would harm investment.
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Poilievre defends decision to block reporters from campaign plane
'It will be refreshing to hear from local outlets,' Conservative leader says
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre defended his campaign's decision to block journalists from travelling on the party's campaign plane during the election, saying it's an opportunity to hear from more local reporters instead of the political ones that cover him full time.
Poilievre's party announced a plan to block political reporters and other journalists from travelling on the Conservative campaign plane or bus earlier this week, a break from tradition that means it will be mostly local and regional reporters covering Poilievre's events and news conferences during the election.
Speaking to the press at a stop in Jonquière, Que., Poilievre was asked if the ban will limit media access, particularly for francophone news organizations, which do not have as big a presence on the ground outside of Quebec.
In the past, a French-speaking Radio-Canada reporter travelled with the Conservative leader throughout the campaign, bringing coverage in that language to all of Canada.
Poilievre said his campaign will have "open media access across the country" and it will be "refreshing" to hear from reporters who aren't assigned to cover him on a regular basis.
He said the party's communications will be in French and he's happy to answer questions in either official language no matter where he is.
Poilievre defends decision to bar media from travelling with Tory election campaignThe Liberals, NDP and Bloc Québécois told media outlets they will allow journalists to travel with their leaders.
Poilievre's opponents have since pounced on the party's decision.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh said Thursday it's "no surprise" Poilievre is "afraid of some questions."
"You can see the way he acts when he gets asked a question. He gets defensive, he gets offended," he said. "He can't handle questions. Is that someone you want as prime minister? Someone who's afraid of questions, who can't take the heat? You need someone who's going to be able to take tough questions."
Singh said Prime Minister Mark Carney has also shown a reluctance to answer tough questions about his finances and possible conflicts of interest, after he bristled at questions when asked by reporters earlier this week.
A spokesperson for the Liberal Party said it's Poilievre who is trying to dodge accountability.
"Why does Pierre Poilievre's team feel like they need to hide him from the media and Canadians in the next federal election? He's the wrong choice at the wrong time," the spokesperson said.
A spokesperson for the Green Party said the move to block reporters from travelling with Poilievre is part of a Conservative "pattern of contempt" for the press.
"Democracy cannot function without a free press," said Green Party Co-Leader Elizabeth May.
"When political leaders actively avoid scrutiny, it should alarm every Canadian. The Green Party has always been open and accessible to the media, and we will continue to lead by example," May said.
Poilievre said he hasn't had media travelling with him in the months leading up to the expected election campaign and reporters were still able to get questions to him.
The party will offer reporters the chance to answer questions remotely through teleconferencing.
Media outlets have paid their own way to have journalists travel with past Conservative leaders, including Stephen Harper, Andrew Scheer and Erin O'Toole.
Those journalists documented the leaders' announcements, asked questions at news conferences, made connections with staff members and met voters along the campaign trail as part of an effort to bring election stories to Canadians.
Travelling with the leader ensured journalists had ready access to the party's events, which are sometimes in remote areas of the country, or in "news deserts," where there are few local outlets after years of newsroom closures.
Poilievre said his main opponent in the upcoming election, Carney, is "hiding in a bubble" and not taking questions from reporters.
"I answer far more questions than Mr. Carney," he said.
In the last week, Carney held a news conference on Friday, Monday, Tuesday and is expected to hold one later today.
Poilievre has had media availabilities four days in the last week as well.
Jeffrey Dvorkin, former director of the journalism program at the University of Toronto, said the travel restrictions on reporters are part of a broader political push to limit media access.
"Politicians in general, and maybe the Conservatives in particular, want to have more control over the message the news media puts out," Dvorkin said in an interview.
"This plays into the hands of the control freaks inside the party. They want to keep a tight leash on the daily information that comes out."
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