Thursday 13 April 2023

The strange death and rebirth of the Liberal Party under Trudeau

 
 

The Writ Podcast - Ep. #89: The Trudeau Decade

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Susan Delacourt and Aaron Wherry on Justin Trudeau's 10 years as Liberal leader. https://www.thewrit.ca/ It’s been 10 years since Justin Trudeau became leader of the Liberal Party of Canada. That not only makes him one of today’s longest-serving party leaders in the country, it also puts him on a short list of historic Liberal leaders: only Lester Pearson, Jean Chrétien, Pierre Trudeau, Mackenzie King and Wilfrid Laurier have held the job longer than Justin Trudeau has. He says he will lead the Liberals into the next election, but a decade is already more than enough time to leave a mark. To discuss Trudeau’s legacy to date, I’m joined this week by the CBC’s Aaron Wherry, who wrote a book on the first years of Trudeau’s time in office, and Susan Delacourt of the Toronto Star.
 
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The strange death and rebirth of the Liberal Party under Trudeau

Ten years ago, Justin Trudeau inherited a moribund political institution

In theory, that vote heralded the arrival of a new political era. The Liberal Party's day was done — the broadly centrist institution that dominated Canadian politics in the 20th century was no longer fit for purpose. Canada would finally become more like its sister democracies, with a clear contest between a distinct party of the political right and a distinct party of the left. The future seemed to belong to the Conservatives and the NDP.

Then things changed again, as they are wont to do. Foremost among those unforeseen developments was Justin Trudeau's election as Liberal leader, which happened 10 years ago this week.

In the short term, Trudeau's mere presence breathed a bit of new life into the lungs of a prostrate party. In time, it also gave the party a new sense of direction. If the worst thing that could be said about the Liberal Party was that it represented the "mushy middle," the best thing that could be said about Trudeau's early leadership is that he made the party less mushy.

He announced that he would support the legalization of marijuana. He declared that his party would take a strict pro-choice position in favour of abortion rights. He unceremoniously ejected Liberal senators from the party's parliamentary caucus. And then he laid out a party platform that did not include a commitment to balancing the federal budget.

Each of these moves — like Trudeau's own decision to seek the party leadership — was met with some level of consternation and skepticism. But four years after the party was given up for dead, the Liberals won 184 seats and Trudeau became prime minister.

What has taken shape since then is the most active and activist generation of Liberals to hold power since Lester B. Pearson's government in the 1960s.

Canadian Liberal Party Leader Justin Trudeau arrives on stage in Montreal on Oct. 20, 2015 after winning the general election. Justin Trudeau arrives on stage in Montreal on Oct. 20, 2015, after the Liberals won the general election. (Nicholas Kamm/AFP/Getty Images)

In 2011, when Michael Ignatieff was leading the Liberals, the party platform outlined $8.2 billion in new investments spread over two years. In 2015, Trudeau's platform covered $149.8 billion over four years. The words "racism," "gender" and "reconciliation" don't appear at all in the 2011 platform. Those words appeared 28, 46 and 19 times in the Liberal party's 2021 platform.

Some of those changes in language and emphasis might simply reflect the changing times ("reconciliation" had not really entered the popular lexicon when the Liberal platform was written in 2011). But they also reflect a leader and a party that have tried enthusiastically to speak to emerging demands and issues.

On his 10th anniversary as leader, Trudeau's government may be closer to the end of its time in office than the beginning. Much of the shine has come off the famous son of Pierre Trudeau. But the Liberals remain competitive in public opinion polling and comfortably ahead of the NDP.

Did the prophecies come true?

One way to read the events of the past 10 years is to conclude that the post-2011 theories of realignment turned out to be broadly correct — that the party system did polarize, with the Liberals shifting to become the dominant party of the left.

There may be something to that, at least in the short term. But it's also possible to overstate how much the Liberals have moved leftward. The Liberals remain far less inclined than New Democrats to talk about class or heap scorn upon the rich and powerful.

Despite major new social investments, the Liberals still seem reluctant to create new federally run programs. Dental care is only happening because the NDP demanded it, while Liberal interest in pharmacare has waned.

Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau, left, and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, prepare for the start of the federal election English-language Leaders debate in Gatineau, Que., on Thursday, Sept. 9, 2021. Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau, left, and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh prepare for the start of the federal election English-language leaders' debate in Gatineau, Que., on Sept. 9, 2021. (Justin Tang/The Canadian Press)

Even when you consider trends in federal spending, the Liberals' leftward lurch seems more like a nudge. As a share of GDP, federal program spending in 2023-24 is projected to be merely on par with what it was in the late 1980s, when Brian Mulroney's Progressive Conservative government was in office.

In electoral terms, it's also possible to conclude that Trudeau's election victories have merely dressed up what is actually a long-term decline in the Liberal Party's standing.

The ceiling on Liberal support does seem to have been dropping gradually since Mackenzie King's Liberals received 51.3 per cent of the vote in 1940. Louis St. Laurent topped out at 49.2 per cent, Pierre Trudeau at 45.4 per cent, Jean Chrétien at 41.2 per cent. While Trudeau won a majority in 2015, the Liberals could only draw 39.5 per cent of the vote.

If the ceiling falls any further, it will be hard for a future Liberal leader to stand up.

But the same is broadly true of the Conservative Party — a party that has its own existential challenges. John Diefenbaker's Progressive Conservatives won 53.6 per cent of the vote in 1958 and Mulroney got 50 per cent in 1984. Stephen Harper's Conservatives couldn't get more than 39.6 per cent.

In a system that includes both a durable NDP and a resilient Bloc Québécois (and a Green Party of some sort), it might simply be very difficult for any party to routinely capture much more than 40 per cent of the vote.

So the Liberals probably won't be able to dominate this century like they did the last one (from 1896 to 2006, the Liberals governed for 80 years). When they do govern, they might have to work more often with other parties (as they are now).

Not mushy enough?

Ten years after Trudeau became the 13th leader of the Liberal Party of Canada, there is a new complaint — that the party is now not mushy enough.

Political polarization is worth worrying about. Taken to extremes, it can breed the sort of tribalism that makes a democracy difficult to manage. And it's very possible that the next Liberal leader will decide that Trudeau took the party too far to the left. Economic or political circumstances might require the Liberal Party to shift — just as it has in the past.

It's also possible that the political centre isn't, or wasn't, quite where it was thought to be. And while some pundits might prefer moderation, other Canadians might fairly want progress to happen faster than a more centrist approach would allow.

Any Liberal who aspires to win elections might also note that while the Liberal vote has eroded, the combined Liberal-NDP vote has consistently hovered around 50 per cent for the last 40 years — peaking at 59.2 per cent in 2015 and only once dropping below 46 per cent (in 2008). And on an issue as central as climate change, Conservative voters are much less enthusiastic about government action.

But the ultimate lesson of the 2011 election and the last 10 years is that the future is very hard to predict — and that political success depends on both a little bit of luck and an ability to adapt.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR


Aaron Wherry

Senior writer

Aaron Wherry has covered Parliament Hill since 2007 and has written for Maclean's, the National Post and the Globe and Mail. He is the author of Promise & Peril, a book about Justin Trudeau's years in power.

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4131 Comments
 
 
 
Peter Jaworski  
It's really very simple. Canadian at heart are moderates. The CPC and NDP are far too right and left to appeal to the average voter. The sad part is that given this, the Liberals failed to select a leader with vision, an ethical compass, or ability to lead a nation.  
 
 
David Amos
Reply to Peter Jaworski 
That may be the understatement of the year  
 
 
 
Bob Stanley 

Re-birth....It's the only time I cheered for abortion. 
 
 
David Amos
Reply to Bob Stanley 
Me too
 
 

 
Matt Evans
 
 
Mike Hamilton  
Reply to Matt Evans
No it won't. He might say that now to get your vote, but they will continue to fund CBC.
 
 
John Smith 
Reply to Mike Hamilton 
a Liberal will tell you want you want to hear to get elected....always 
 
 
Mike Hamilton  
Reply to John Smith 
Every politician.
 
 
John Smith 
Reply to Mike Hamilton 
more so Liberals
 
 
Peter Jaworski  
Reply to Matt Evans
And where will you got to complain then?  
 
 
Neil Gregory 
Reply to Matt Evans
If anyone thought that the Harper government was bad for Canada, he or she can be sure the any Conservative government no mater who leads it, will be much worse 
 
 
David Amos
Reply to Neil Gregory 
"Ten years ago, Justin Trudeau inherited a moribund political institution""

I too can be described as moribund but does not follow that my mind is going down the same road

 
David Amos
Reply to Mike Hamilton
Amen 




Dottie Prentice
Yes Aaron. Justin is wonderful.  
 
 
David Amos
Reply to Dottie Prentice 
Welcome back to the circus  
 
 
 
 

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