'We can't turn back now,' Higgs says, as he calls election
P.C., Liberal leaders launch campaigns ahead of Oct. 21 vote
New Brunswickers will head to the polls on Oct. 21 to decide whether to give the Progressive Conservatives under Blaine Higgs another four-year term in government.
Higgs visited Government House on Thursday morning and spent a half hour with Lt.-Gov. Brenda Murphy, who signed the writs for a provincial election.
He portrayed the campaign as a choice between his sound fiscal management — including six straight years of budget surpluses — and a potential Liberal-Green "coalition" that might undo that progress.
"My entire foray in politics," he said, acknowledging he hadn't planned to stay in office this long, "is about we can't turn back now."
Higgs
spent spent a half hour with Lt.-Gov. Brenda Murphy on Thursday morning
in Government House, where she signed the writs for a provincial
election. (Alix Villeneuve/Radio-Canada)
Higgs launched the campaign on the same day the Angus Reid Institute released a survey showing him with the lowest approval rating, 30 per cent, of any premier in Canada.
"If people say 'you're done,' I'm done," Higgs told reporters.
"It's because of that determination, that desire for a bigger, better, brighter future for our next generation — that's what keeps us going."
The PC leader took office in 2018 with a minority government and won a majority two years later.
A victory on Oct. 21 would make him the first premier to win a third term since Liberal Frank McKenna in 1995.
He's arguing that years of balanced budgets have freed up money for health care and other services, that would otherwise have needed to be spent on debt interest.
Liberal Leader Susan Holt launched her campaign in Bathurst, where she has served as an MLA since winning a byelection there last year.
She's running in Fredericton South-Silverwood this time.
Liberal
Leader Susan Holt launched her campaign in Bathurst, where she has
served as an MLA since winning a byelection there last year. (Radio-Canada)
At a stop in Miramichi, Holt countered Higgs's recent promise to reduce the provincial sales tax by two points by pledging to remove the tax from N.B. Power bills as soon as her government takes office.
That would save the average household $192 per year, Holt said.
"Unlike the Higgs tax cut, this is a commitment that will provide affordability relief that New Brunswickers need right now," she said.
Holt said the earliest the change could take effect would be April 1, 2025, because the province must give the federal government advance notice.
She would give Ottawa that notice immediately upon taking office, she said.
At Government House, Higgs warned voters that a Holt government could lurch to the left if it lacks a majority in the legislature and needs to rely on the Green Party for support.
He said that would leave New Brunswick with a government similar to the unpopular federal Liberal government of Justin Trudeau, which was propped up by the NDP under Jagmeet Singh until recently.
"We cannot let Susan Holt and [Green Leader] David Coon do to New Brunswick what Trudeau and Singh have done to Canada," Higgs said.
Coon told reporters last week his party was preparing a list of conditions it would put to the Liberals if they need Green support in the legislature.
"It's important to prepare for any possibility," he said, at the Green campaign launch on Wednesday. "We have a long list now, from some brainstorming.
"It's called our platform," added Green candidate Kevin Arseneau, an MLA since 2018.
Five other registered parties are contesting the Oct. 21 election, including the NDP, which last elected an MLA in 2003, and the People's Alliance, which won two seats four years ago.
Advance polls will be open on Oct. 12 and 15.
Elections New Brunswick released a statement reminding voters they can vote at the returning office in their riding at any time.
Ballots won't be available until after the candidate registration deadline on Oct. 1 but people can vote by write-in ballot before then.
In the statement, chief electoral officer Kim Poffenroth reminded voters that a newly redrawn electoral map is in effect and urged people to check which of the 49 new ridings they live in.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Do ya Mr Outhouse will bother reading them?
Vote Conservative.
Reply to Ralph Skavinsky
Also does this mean his campaign manager, Outhouse is now off the taxpayers dime or is Higgs keeping him on on double pay?
Reply to Gary Webber
I thought the election call was related to this. NBers have been scammed by the PCs and Liberals for 100 years
New Brunswick'ians know .
"What does that have to do with the price of tea in China?"
“I don't want to belong to any club that will accept me as a member.”
Reply to Lou Bell
Surely you jest
Reply to Ralph Skavinsky
N.B. election campaign kicking off for Oct. 21 vote
PC Leader Blaine Higgs hopes to secure 3rd term in power
New Brunswick's provincial election campaign is finally getting underway this morning.
After more than a year of political turmoil within the Progressive Conservative government — and after coming close to triggering an early election a year ago — Premier Blaine Higgs is launching his bid for a third mandate.
He met with Lt.-Gov. Brenda Murphy at 10:30 a.m. to formalize the dissolution of the legislature and send New Brunswickers to the polls on Oct. 21 to elect 49 new members.
A win would make Higgs the first New Brunswick premier to secure a third term since Frank McKenna in 1995.
The Progressive Conservative leader held no public events Wednesday.
Blaine Higgs speaks outside Government House on the first day of the
election campaign. If re-elected, he would become the first premier to
win a third term in New Brunswick since Frank McKenna. (Chad Ingraham/CBC)
Nor did Liberal Leader Susan Holt, who is looking to end Higgs's six-year tenure and return her party to power.
Holt also opted against any final pre-campaign events on Wednesday, instead releasing a short promotional video attacking the PC record on health care and the cost of living.
"The choice in this election has never been more clear," she said.
Leader
Susan Holt says a Liberal government would start aiming for fiscal
reform immediately if elected and says her party is aiming higher than a
transfer of heavy industrial taxes to municipalities. (Chad Ingraham/CBC)
The Greens, the only other party with seats in the legislature heading into the campaign, held its launch in Fredericton Wednesday.
Leader David Coon said his party is aiming to take power despite its third-place standing.
He pointed out that the Greens have defied predictions in the past — when he was elected as the party's first MLA in 2014, and when it elected a total of three MLAs in 2018 and again in 2020.
"To my amazing candidates and their volunteers, when they say a Green government cannot be elected in New Brunswick, flash a big smile and keep knocking on those doors," he told an outdoor rally that included most of the party's candidates.
"It's going to be bye-bye, Blaine Higgs."
Two other political parties are hoping to reverse their declining fortunes during the campaign.
The People's Alliance elected three MLAs in 2018 and two of them — including leader Kris Austin — were re-elected in 2020, only to defect to the governing PCs in 2022.
The party was de-registered and then re-registered.
New leader Rick DeSaulniers, a winner in 2018 who lost his seat two years later, is running against Austin in Fredericton-Grand Lake.
Rick DeSaulniers, former Fredericton-York MLA, was acclaimed as the People’s Alliance of New Brunswick's leader in 2022. (Jonathan Colicott/CBC)
Meanwhile, first-time NDP Leader Alex White faces an uphill climb to elect a party MLA for the first time in more than two decades.
The party won only 1.7 per cent of the popular vote last time.
Three new political parties have also registered for the first time to run candidates in this campaign.
Tanya Roberts, the leader of the Social Justice Party of New Brunswick, is a former investigator for WorkSafeNB who is fighting her termination from the agency.
She says she organized the party to fight for whistleblowers in provincial organizations who try to expose cover-ups.
"The oversight bodies are there but nobody's actually providing the oversight," Roberts said in an interview this week.
She claims her party can win the election.
"I'm not here for second place," she says. "We're going to have a hard reset on the government."
A co-founder of the Libertarian Party of New Brunswick, on the other hand, said the party is unlikely to win any seats this time, but is laying the groundwork for 2028.
The party began as an idea for a non-profit organization to espouse a vision of smaller government, local community decision-making and the elimination of taxation, said François Provost.
"Do I think a party was the answer to what is needed?" he said.
"I don't think so, but it's useful to have one if you want to change things."
The third new party, the Consensus N.B. Party, wants to have more collaborative decision-making in the legislature.
Leader Lenny O'Brien said he was inspired by the four-party co-operation that existed for COVID-19 policies when Higgs had a minority government.
When Higgs called an early election in 2020 to win a majority, "the system exposed itself for what it is," O'Brien said —too focused on power.
He decided a new party was needed to work toward the eventual complete end of party politics.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
The sky is blue and water is wet.
2024 New Brunswick general election
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The 2024 New Brunswick general election is scheduled to be held on October 21, 2024, according to the Legislative Assembly Act of 2017 which states that an election should be held every four years on the third Monday in October;[1] the election still must be held on a Monday if called sooner.[2] It will be held to select 49 members of the Legislative Assembly of New Brunswick of the 61st New Brunswick legislature.
2023 redistribution
The Electoral Boundaries and Representation Commission is obliged after every second general election to investigate and report whether boundary adjustments are required to the Province's constituencies.[3] It was required to ensure that revised constituencies have populations that fall with 25% of the determined electoral quotient, and it made its report with recommendations in March 2023.[4]
Objections were raised as to the alignments proposed for Shediac-Cap-Acadie and Tantramar,[5] and special legislation was passed to allow a variance in the proposed boundaries.[6]
The following changes took effect:
| Abolished | New |
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| Renaming of constituencies | |
| Abolition of constituencies | |
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| Drawn from other constituencies | |
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| Merger of constituencies | |
| Reorganization of constituencies | |
- from parts of Tracadie-Sheila, Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint-Isidore, Shippagan-Lamèque-Miscou and Caraquet.
Of the 49 constituencies, 17 have Francophone majorities:[4]
Background
Minor party de-registrations and registrations
On October 31, 2020, after failing to nominate ten candidates in the 2020 election, the KISS NB was deregistered.[7]
On March 30, 2022, Kris Austin and Michelle Conroy announced their departures from the People's Alliance to join the Progressive Conservatives. Austin said that the result of the 2020 provincial election, when the party lost one of its three seats, had prompted him to undertake some “soul-searching”, but that he believed he had changed politics in New Brunswick.[8] Both Austin and Conroy stated that they believed they could better represent their ridings from within government.[9]
Premier and Progressive Conservative leader Blaine Higgs expressed excitement about his party's new MLAs, but reiterated the party's support for official bilingualism when questioned about the People's Alliance's previous stances on the issue. The acceptance of MLAs who had expressed anti-bilingual opinions was criticized by the Acadian Society of New Brunswick, an organization promoting the rights of francophones in the province, when their president Alexandre Cédric Doucet said that he was happy to see the Alliance dissolve, but that it was "a sad day" for the Progressive Conservatives.[9]
The Chief Electoral Officer of New Brunswick confirmed that the Peoples Alliance of New Brunswick would be deregistered as a provincial party on March 31, 2022.[10] In April 2022, interim leader Rick DeSaulniers and party announced plans to re-register as a party.[11] Elections New Brunswick confirmed the party was re-registered in May 2022.[12]
The Libertarian Party of New Brunswick was registered in July 2024.[13] In September 2024, two new parties registered with Elections New Brunswick: the Social Justice Party of New Brunswick and the Consensus NB Party.[14]
Current standings
| Affiliation | Assembly members | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 election results | Current | ||
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Progressive Conservative | 27 | 25 |
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Liberal | 17 | 16 |
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Green | 3 | 3 |
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People's Alliance | 2 | 0 |
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Independent | 0 | 1 |
| Vacant | 4 | ||
| Total members | 49 | 45 | |
| Total seats | 49 | 49 | |
Summary of seat changes
| Changes in seats held (2020–present) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seat | Before | Change | |||||
| Date | Member | Party | Reason | Date | Member | Party | |
| Southwest Miramichi-Bay du Vin | August 17, 2021 | Jake Stewart | █ PC | Resigned to run in Miramichi—Grand Lake in the 2021 federal election (Stewart was elected). | June 20, 2022 | Mike Dawson | █ PC |
| Miramichi Bay-Neguac | Lisa Harris | █ Liberal | Réjean Savoie | █ PC | |||
| Fredericton-Grand Lake | March 30, 2022 | Kris Austin | █ People's Allnc. | Changed affiliation, resigning as People's Alliance leader and announcing his intention to deregister the party. |
|
|
█ PC |
| Miramichi | Michelle Conroy | █ People's Allnc. | Changed affiliation. |
|
█ PC | ||
| Fredericton West-Hanwell | October 16, 2022 | Dominic Cardy | █ PC | Expelled from the PC caucus having resigned his ministerial role. |
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█ Independent |
| Dieppe | October 21, 2022 | Roger Melanson | █ Liberal | Resigned to head to the private sector. | April 24, 2023 | Richard Losier | █ Liberal |
| Restigouche-Chaleur | November 27, 2022 | Daniel Guitard | █ Liberal | Resigned to run for Mayor of Belle-Baie in 2022 elections; elected. | Marco LeBlanc | █ Liberal | |
| Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint-Isidore | November 27, 2022 | Denis Landry | █ Liberal | Resigned to run for Mayor of Hautes-Terres in 2022 elections; elected. | Susan Holt | █ Liberal | |
| Saint John Harbour | February 8, 2024[15] | Arlene Dunn | █ PC | Resigned. |
|
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| Portland-Simonds | April 30, 2024[16] | Trevor Holder | █ PC | Resigned. |
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| Hampton | April 30, 2024[16] | Gary Crossman | █ PC | Resigned. |
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| Albert | June 20, 2024[17][18] | Mike Holland | █ PC | Resigned (after final legislative session). |
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Issues
Education
New Brunswick has been experiencing major education shortcomings during the 2020s, with the province experiencing massive shortages in teachers and school psychologists,[19][20] along with school bus drivers in some areas. Schools throughout the province have also reported exceptionally low child literacy rates, with a 2021–22 report concluding that literacy standards were not met by around 40% of the province's fourth grade students, the lowest it has been in 18 years.[21] Kelly Lamrock, the New Brunswick Child and Youth advocate, further reported that child literacy rates had declined by 29% over the past decade.[22] After being released in November 2023, the 2022–23 report for fourth grade student literacy rates showed further decline, with 43.4% scoring "below appropriate achievement" after being assessed for English reading.[23]
In late 2023, the New Brunswick Teachers' Association (NBTA) called for the provincial government regarding concerns raised from a NBTA survey on its members. Concerns noted "understaffed classrooms and overcrowded buildings, with uncertified community members, people without without a bachelor of education, sometimes taking the place of actual teachers because of shortages." Many of the 2,916 survey participants reported teaching in overcrowded and poorly ventilated schools, with half also experiencing verbal and physical abuse. Those who called for these issues to be addressed included Liberal leader Susan Holt as well as Kevin Arseneau, a Green MLA for Kent North.[24]
In May 2024, the NBTA projected over 1,200 anglophone teachers that will be eligible for retirement within the next five years, with Peter Lagacy, the NBTA president, adding that this is "an alarming number when we look at how many we have coming into the system."[25]
Staff shortages
New Brunswick's public school system has been notably experiencing shortages in teachers,[26][27] school psychologists and, in certain areas, bus drivers.[28]
While proposing changes for Policy 713, Higgs proposed for "extra counsellors, extra support." According to figures from November 2023, however, the number of school psychologists dropped; out of a total of 28 'full-time equivalent' school psychologist positions filled throughout the province, only six served the province's English school system of approximately 73,000 students.[19]
School busing shortcomings
An audit which took place between January and February in 2024 concluded that the provincial Department of Education "lacks oversight on school bus safety and driver requirements."[29] Using a sample size of 65 bus drivers out of a total of around 1,300, the audit reported that 46% of New Brunswick's school bus drivers had ineligible licensing requirements. Additionally, 20% were hired without checking for criminal records, and further percentages of bus drivers had no evidence of bus training (37%) and first aid training (42%). The audit also conducted vehicle inspections on a number of buses, with 45% having deficiencies.[30][31] Francine Landry, the Liberal MLA for Madawaska Les Lacs-Edmundston, criticized the provincial government led by Higgs for "touting their record on keeping children safe, while failing to fulfil the most basic requirements for doing so." Education Minister Bill Hogan responded, saying that "clearly there's some work to be done in that area in making sure that they're inspected on time."[29]
Policy 713
Policy 713, a provincial education policy which sets minimum requirements for public schools and districts in the province related to individuals identifying and perceived as LGBTQIA2S+, became the subject of massive debate following a 2023 decision made to review and ultimately revise the policy by the Progressive Conservative-led government under Higgs and Bill Hogan, the Minister of Education and Early Childhood Development. In the aftermath of its revision, a third of the Progressive Conservative caucus members elected under Higgs have either resigned or announced that they would not seek re-election, with some criticizing Higgs' leadership and highlighting a growing disconnect between their personal beliefs and the party's stance. The revision has led the government to becoming in legal disputes with its education departments as well as with the Canadian Civil Liberties Association, who filed a lawsuit against the government, citing violations against the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms and New Brunswick's human rights and education acts. The issue has been the subject of widespread coverage and dispute, and has been covered by major news publications including The Washington Post,[32] The New York Times,[33] and BBC.[34]
Lindsay Jones of The Globe And Mail called the Policy 713 dispute as having "emerged as perhaps the key issue in the next election."[35]
Healthcare
Healthcare in New Brunswick has been described as being in a "state of chaos,"[36] with hospitals throughout the province experiencing an overcapacity of patients,[37] excessively long waiting times,[38] and health workers experiencing burnout.[39] During a February 2023 press conference, Blaine Higgs stated that "if every doctor in our province took two or three more patients a week, we wouldn't have a backlog."[40] In an Angus Reid survey that recorded Canadians' satisfaction with how their province is dealing with healthcare, New Brunswick recorded the largest drop in satisfaction rate compared to rates surveyed at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, with a rate of just 11 percent, compared to a previous rate of 42 percent.[41]
Following overcrowding at the Dr. Everett Chalmers Regional Hospital emergency room at the start of 2024, Green leader David Coon called for "immediate changes" as well as for the government to increase funding.[42]
On May 28, 2024, a CUPE Local 1292-sponsored leaders' debate covering the topic of healthcare was aired on Rogers TV;[43] Blaine Higgs, Susan Holt and David Coon were invited to participate, though Higgs declined to attend.[44]
According to Rob McKee, the Liberal health critic, 160,000 people in New Brunswick, or roughly 20 percent of the population, do not have a family doctor or nurse practitioner as of late May 2024. The numbers were disputed by Bruce Fitch, the Minister of Health.[45]
During the final session of the 60th legislature held on June 7, 2024, Higgs and Holt clashed during question period; one of the topics included the funding spent on travel nurses, amounted to nearly CA$174 million, which was revealed to have been "partly mismanaged" according to a report by the auditor general.[46]
Both the Liberal and Green parties made promises to re-launch research efforts into the province's mystery neurological disease upon forming majority government.[47]
Housing
Since 2019, housing prices have nearly doubled in New Brunswick. In home prices, the province marked the highest percentage of increases compared to the rest of the Canadian provinces and territories.[48] New Brunswick has also seen major increases in homeless within its communities and cities, with Fredericton, Saint John, and Moncton collectively experiencing an 80% increase in homelessness between 2021 and 2023.[49] Housing critics have claimed that "landlords have almost all the power" in the province.[50]
Both the Liberal and Green parties have attempted to implement rent regulation in the province,[51] with the right to housing being highlighted by the Green Party legislative members, whether to consider it a human right or to push for rural area housing rights. During a legislative session on November 20, 2020, held shortly after the opening of the 60th legislature, Green Party leader David Coon introduced Bill 18, which would have made changes to the Residential Tenancies Act, including a cap on annual rent increases as well as ensuring that "rent can only be raised once a year for a tenant and not in their first year." At the time, New Brunswick was the only province that allowed for landlords to make multiple increases on rent each year. Coon added that "we need to ensure that tenants who cannot afford large increases in their rents are not left out in the cold without housing this winter."[50] After six months of debate, the bill was ultimately rejected after all Progressive Conservative and People's Alliance MLAs unanimously voted against it. The New Brunswick Coalition for Tenants Rights, who had criticized the proposed bill for "not going far enough," expressed disappointment in the government decision.[52]
In March 2022, the government introduced a temporary 3.8% rent cap,[53] set to expire at the end of the year.[54] Opposition parties soon afterwards called for an extension on this cap, while it was opposed by the government.[55] Coon, saying that the government has not "gone far enough to eliminate loopholes that allow landlords to get around the government's temporary cap on rent increases," also made proposals to the provincial bill to address loopholes in this legislation, but faced rejection from the majority Progressive Conservatives.[56]
In December 2023, St. Stephen mayor Allan MacEachern declared a state of emergency due to an increase in homelessness along with the recent death of a homeless person in the municipality, the declaration also accusing the provincial government of failing to offer housing and social services.[57][58] Public Safety Minister Kris Austin terminated the declaration soon afterwards,[59] likening it to car accidents by saying that "people die all the time in car accidents, and we do not declare state of emergencies for that."[60] Austin also blamed "leftist agendas that are degrading our society" as well as the federal government for the issue.[61]
In June 2024, the provincial government quietly made changes to its renting policies, allowing for landlords to make annual rent increases for up to 4.7% for the next year starting in July 2024; this increase exceeds the current inflation rate.[62][63] Coon criticized this change, with Higgs being called out "caving to the lobbying of large corporate property owners."[64]
Out-of-province activities
New Brunswick, unlike most provinces, allows political party funding from non-residents. In January 2024, Liberal and Green leaders Holt and Coon both made a promise to forbid New Brunswick political party donations from out-of-province sources in response to Higgs going to Alberta and British Columbia on a fundraising trip for his party.[65]
In August 2024, right-leaning lobbyist group Campaign Life Coalition mailed flyers to 160,000 homes in New Brunswick,[66] making the accusation that schools in the province are "pushing transgenderism".[67] Both Liberal and Green leaders condemned the flyers, with Higgs additionally having been urged to do so as well.[66]
Campaign
Progressive Conservative
In November 2023, the Progressive Conservatives hired Steve Outhouse as its campaign manager. Outhouse had previously served as chief of staff and as director of communications for federal Conservative cabinet ministers, and served as campaign manager for the re-election of the United Conservative Party in the 2023 Alberta general election.[68] In April 2024, Outhouse was also hired as principal secretary to Premier Blaine Higgs, which is a taxpayer-funded position that will earn up to CA$124,656 during the six-month contract.[69] The contract drew criticism from Green leader David Coon, who estimated the position's pay band as being at a much lower rate of CA$150,000–175,000 annually,[70] as well as from Liberal MLA and former Progressive Conservative Robert Gauvin, who stated that it was "unfair that New Brunswick taxpayers are paying him for that," believing that "this contract should be cut and the money should be reimbursed."[69] Higgs defended the value of the contract by reading extensively from Outhouse's resumé and stating that he comes with, "an extensive degree of credentials and relevant experience to what we experience as a government."[71]
Jacques Poitras of CBC News described the Progressive Conservative campaign under Outhouse's contract as adopting "a more pointed, aggressive style of advertising against the opposition Liberals." The campaign particularly attacked Susan Holt while "trying to link her to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's carbon tax and other policies." Jeff Carr, a Progressive Conservative MLA who previously announced that he would not be seeking candidacy in the election, criticized a post his party made targeting a 2014 quote by Holt regarding "closing some schools in the province." Carr stated that the post omitted important context "for political gain (misleading the electorate)," calling it "disappointing."[69]
The Progressive Conservative party launched their re-election campaign in Quispamsis on September 19, 2024.[72][73]
Liberal
Throughout the months leading up to the election, Liberal leader Susan Holt started distancing herself from Prime Minister Justin Trudeau amongst attacks from the Progressive Conservatives attempting to link them together throughout the decline in popularity for Trudeau. Holt stated that "the New Brunswick Liberal Party is a separate entity from the federal party the prime minister leads."[74]
When asked by Brunswick News about her summer campaign plans, Holt shared plans of touring around the province and stopping by each riding, with 207 "touchpoints" with "festivals and celebrations," while also focusing on her home riding.[2]
The Liberal party officially launched their election campaign in Fredericton on September 8, 2024.[75]
Greens
In late 2023, Green Party leader David Coon stated that his goal was to "elect as many Green MLAs as possible." Additionally, Coon proposed that he would be open to the idea of collaborating with the Liberals to prevent Higgs from remaining in power if an early election results in him losing seat majority. Coon's negotiation proposal reflected his stance from the 2018 election when he was willing to talk with both parties, prior to the Progressive Conservatives securing the backing from the People's Alliance.[76]
Coon, like Holt, was also asked by Brunswick News about his campaign plans for the summer; he shared that he, along with his deputies, Kevin Arseneau and Megan Mitton, are going to be "fanning out across the province, launching new candidates’ campaigns that haven’t been launched yet, and attending festivals and events, and generally holding our own events as well." Coon said that the largest issues that all Green candidates have noticeably heard are healthcare, along with "affordability and affordable housing," adding that "People want to see change. They want to see change that’s for the better, not change back." Coon also highlighted a lack in rural development in the province, mentioning that "there's plenty of talk about communities losing services" in rural areas.[2]
The Green Party's fall campaign officially launched on September 18, 2024.[77]
Opinion polls
| Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling |
Link | PC | Liberal | Green | PA | NDP | Margin of error | Sample size | Polling method | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| |||||||
| Mainstreet Research | September 17, 2024 | [78] | 39 | 41 | 13 | 4 | - | ±4.0 pp | 609 | IVR | 2 |
| Narrative Research | August 17, 2024 | [p 1] | 33 | 44 | 17 | 1 | 4 | ±4.9 pp | 400 | telephone | 11 |
| Nanos Research | July 31, 2024 | [p 2] | 36 | 36 | 14 | 5 | 10 | ±4.7 pp | 447 | telephone/online | 0 |
| Narrative Research | May 30, 2024 | [p 3] | 34 | 37 | 13 | 1 | 13 | ±4.9 pp | 400 | telephone | 3 |
| Narrative Research | February 22, 2024 | [p 4] | 34 | 40 | 15 | 2 | 8 | ±4.9 pp | 400 | telephone | 6 |
| Narrative Research | November 27, 2023 | [p 5] | 35 | 41 | 10 | 2 | 13 | ±4.9 pp | 400 | telephone | 6 |
| Narrative Research | August 21, 2023 | [p 6] | 36 | 38 | 16 | 1 | 8 | ±4.9 pp | 400 | telephone | 2 |
| Narrative Research | May 17, 2023 | [p 7] | 34 | 34 | 19 | 2 | 10 | ±4.9 pp | 400 | telephone | 0 |
| Narrative Research | February 25, 2023 | [p 8] | 37 | 35 | 17 | 2 | 9 | ±4.6 pp | 450 | telephone | 2 |
| Leger | December 23, 2022 | [p 9] | 22 | 40 | 15 | 9 | 12 | ±4.4 pp | 500 | online | 18 |
| Narrative Research | November 27, 2022 | [p 10] | 30 | 39 | 18 | 2 | 10 | ±4.0 pp | 611 | telephone | 9 |
| Narrative Research | August 24, 2022 | [p 11] | 30 | 41 | 14 | 5 | 11 | ±4.2 pp | 525 | telephone | 11 |
| Susan Holt is elected leader of the Liberal Party (August 6, 2022) | |||||||||||
| Angus Reid | June 13, 2022 | [p 12] | 31 | 36 | 14 | 5 | 13 | ±6.0 pp | 247 | online | 5 |
| Narrative Research | May 19, 2022 | [p 13] | 34 | 34 | 17 | 4 | 9 | ±4.0 pp | 607 | telephone | 0 |
| Nanos Research | April 11, 2022 | [p 14] | 36.6 | 38.8 | 14.2 | 1.2 | 8.6 | ±4.8 pp | 423 | online/telephone | 2.2 |
| Both People's Alliance MLAs join the Progressive Conservatives, with Kris Austin announcing intention to de-register the party (March 30, 2022) | |||||||||||
| Angus Reid | March 15, 2022 | [p 15] | 31 | 32 | 15 | 13 | 9 | ±6.0 pp | 251 | online | 1 |
| Narrative Research | February 27, 2022 | [p 16] | 34 | 31 | 16 | 5 | 11 | ±4.2 pp | 545 | telephone | 3 |
| Angus Reid | January 10, 2022 | [p 17] | 26 | 37 | 16 | 10 | 8 | ±7.0 pp | 216 | online | 11 |
| MQO Research | December 14, 2021 | [p 18] | 29 | 36 | 16 | 5 | 11 | ±4.9 pp | 400 | telephone (rolling) | 7 |
| Narrative Research | November 24, 2021 | [p 19] | 28 | 38 | 14 | 5 | 13 | ±3.5 pp | 800 | telephone | 10 |
| Stratcom | November 6, 2021 | [p 20] | 20.5 | 39.8 | 17.9 | 12.0 | - | ±2.8 pp | 1,184 | IVR | 19.3 |
| Angus Reid | October 3, 2021 | [p 21] | 31 | 31 | 12 | 12 | 13 | ±2.0 pp | 265 | online | 0 |
| Narrative Research | August 17, 2021 | [p 22] | 33 | 29 | 22 | 5 | 11 | ±2.0 pp | 604 | telephone | 4 |
| Angus Reid | June 7, 2021 | [p 23] | 36 | 31 | 17 | 12 | 4 | ±2.0 pp | 248 | online | 5 |
| Narrative Research | May 31, 2021 | [p 24] | 39 | 28 | 18 | 6 | 8 | ±3.5 pp | 800 | telephone (rolling) | 11 |
| MQO Research | March 18, 2021 | [p 25] | 38 | 31 | 17 | 5 | 6 | ±4.9 pp | 400 | telephone (rolling) | 7 |
| Narrative Research | February 17, 2021 | [p 26] | 35 | 32 | 20 | 6 | 6 | ±3.5 pp | 800 | telephone (rolling) | 3 |
| Narrative Research | November 22, 2020 | [p 27] | 41 | 28 | 20 | 4 | 6 | ±3.5 pp | 800 | telephone (rolling) | 13 |
| Kevin Vickers resigns as Liberal Party leader; MLA for Dieppe Roger Melanson becomes interim leader (September 14, 2020) | |||||||||||
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| Election 2020 | September 14, 2020 | HTML | 39.3 | 34.4 | 15.2 | 9.2 | 1.7 | — |
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— | 4.9 |
| Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling |
Link |
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Margin of error | Sample size | Polling method | Lead |
| PC | Liberal | Green | PA | NDP | |||||||
Candidates
Retiring incumbents
The following sitting MLAs have announced that they would not seek re-election:
Progressive Conservative
- Daniel Allain, MLA for Moncton East since 2020.[79][80]
- Andrea Anderson-Mason MLA for Fundy-The Isles-Saint John West since 2018.[81]
- Jeff Carr, MLA for New Maryland-Sunbury since 2014.[80]
- Bruce Fitch, MLA for Riverview since 2003.[82]
- Dorothy Shephard, MLA for Saint John Lancaster since 2010.[83]
- Ross Wetmore, MLA for Gagetown-Petitcodiac since 2014 and the former Grand Lake-Gagetown district from 2010 - 2014.[84]
Liberal
- Richard Losier, MLA for Dieppe since 2023.[85]
Independent
- Dominic Cardy, MLA for Fredericton West-Hanwell since 2018, originally elected as a Progressive Conservative.[86]
Abbreviations
- CNB - Consensus NB Party
- Green - Green Party of New Brunswick
- Liberal - New Brunswick Liberal Association
- Ltn. - Libertarian Party of New Brunswick
- NDP - New Brunswick New Democratic Party
- PANB - People's Alliance of New Brunswick
- PC - Progressive Conservative Party of New Brunswick
- SJP - Social Justice Party of New Brunswick
Legend
NOTE: Candidates' names are as registered with Elections New Brunswick[87]
bold denotes cabinet minister, speaker or party leader
† denotes an incumbent who is not running for re-election or was defeated in nomination contest
# denotes an incumbent seeking re-election in a new district
* denotes a candidate on the official Elections New Brunswick candidate list[87]
Northern
| Electoral district | Candidates | Incumbent | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PC | Liberal | Green | PANB | NDP | Other | |||||||||
| Restigouche West |
|
Diane Cyr[88] |
|
Gilles LePage[89] |
|
Myriam Cormier[90] |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Gilles LePage |
| Restigouche East |
|
Normand Pelletier[91] |
|
Guy Arseneault[89] |
|
|
|
|
|
Daisy Petersen[92] |
|
|
|
Guy Arseneault Campbellton-Dalhousie |
| Belle-Baie-Belledune |
|
|
|
Marco LeBlanc[89] |
|
|
|
|
|
Ty Boulay[92] |
|
|
|
Marco LeBlanc Restigouche-Chaleur |
| Bathurst |
|
Kim Chamberlain[93] |
|
René Legacy[89] |
|
Robert Kryszko[90] |
|
|
|
Jeff Frenette[92] |
|
|
|
René Legacy Bathurst West-Beresford |
| Hautes-Terres-Nepisiguit |
|
|
|
Luc Robichaud[94] |
|
Benoît LeBlanc[90] |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Susan Holt# Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint-Isidore |
| Caraquet |
|
JP Lanteigne[93] |
|
Isabelle Thériault[89] |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Isabelle Thériault |
| Shippagan-Les-Îles |
|
|
|
Eric Mallet[89] |
|
Wilfred Roussel[90] |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Eric Mallet Shippagan-Lamèque-Miscou |
| Tracadie |
|
|
|
Keith Chiasson[89] |
|
Serge Brideau[90] |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Keith Chiasson Tracadie-Sheila |
Miramichi and Kent
| Electoral district | Candidates | Incumbent | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Progressive Conservative | Liberal | Green | PANB | NDP | Other | |||||||||
| Beausoleil-Grand-Bouctouche-Kent |
|
Ann Bastarache[93] |
|
Benoît Bourque[89] |
|
Bernadette Morin[90] |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Benoît Bourque Kent South |
| Kent North |
|
Carl Cosby[95] |
|
Pat Finnigan[96] |
|
Kevin Arseneau[90] |
|
Carole Boudreau[97] |
|
|
|
|
|
Kevin Arseneau |
| Miramichi Bay-Neguac |
|
Réjean Savoie[98] |
|
Sam Johnston[99] |
|
Wayne Hitchcock[90] |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Réjean Savoie |
| Miramichi East |
|
Michelle Conroy[100] |
|
Veronique Arsenault[101] |
|
Josh Shaddick[90] |
|
Tom L'Huillier[102] |
|
|
|
|
|
Michelle Conroy Miramichi |
| Miramichi West |
|
Mike Dawson[103] |
|
Mark Hambrook[104] |
|
Genevieve MacRae[90] |
|
Rhonda L'Huillier[102] |
|
|
|
|
|
Mike Dawson Southwest Miramichi-Bay du Vin |
Southeastern
| Electoral district | Candidates | Incumbent | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Progressive Conservative | Liberal | Green | PANB | NDP | Other | |||||||||
| Shediac Bay-Dieppe |
|
René Ephestion[105] |
|
Robert Gauvin[89] |
|
Chantal Landry[90] |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Robert Gauvin |
| Shediac-Cap-Acadie |
|
|
|
Jacques LeBlanc[89] |
|
Jean Bourgeois[90] |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jacques LeBlanc Shediac-Beaubassin-Cap-Pelé |
| Tantramar |
|
Bruce Phinney[106] |
|
John Higham[107] |
|
Megan Mitton[90] |
|
|
|
Evelyne Godfrey[92] |
|
|
|
Megan Mitton Memramcook-Tantramar |
| Dieppe-Memramcook |
|
Dean Leonard[93] |
|
Natacha Vautour[108] |
|
Jacques Giguère[90] |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Richard Losier† Dieppe |
| Moncton East |
|
Paolo Andreetti[109] |
|
Alexandre Cédric Doucet[110] |
|
Diani Blanco[90] |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rob McKee‡ Moncton Centre |
| Moncton Centre |
|
David Melanson[111] |
|
Rob McKee[89] |
|
Sarah Colwell[90] |
|
|
|
James Ryan[92] |
|
|
|
Sherry Wilson# Moncton Southwest |
| Moncton South |
|
Greg Turner[112] |
|
Claire Johnson[89] |
|
Vincent Merola[90] |
|
|
|
Rebecca Rogers[113] |
|
|
|
Greg Turner |
| Moncton Northwest |
|
Ernie Steeves[114] |
|
Tania Sodhi[115] |
|
Ana Santana[90] |
|
|
|
Alex Gagne[92] |
|
|
|
Ernie Steeves |
| Champdoré-Irishtown |
|
Ricky Gautreau[116] |
|
Lyne Chantal Boudreau[117] |
|
Matthew Clark[90] |
|
|
|
Andrew Mullett[92] |
|
Adam Hennessey (Ltn.)[118] |
|
Daniel Allain†[79] Moncton East |
| Riverview |
|
Rob Weir[119] |
|
Scott Grant[120] |
|
Sarah Lord[121] |
|
|
|
Desiree Despres[92] |
|
|
|
Bruce Fitch† |
| Albert-Riverview |
|
Sherry Wilson[122] |
|
Dave Gouthro[89] |
|
Liam MacDougall[90] |
|
Sharon Buchanan[102] |
|
|
|
|
|
Vacant Albert |
| Arcadia-Butternut Valley-Maple Hills |
|
Don Monahan[123] |
|
Connie Larson[124] |
|
Brian Boucher[90] |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ross Wetmore†[84] Gagetown-Petitcodiac |
Southern
| Electoral district | Candidates | Incumbent | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Progressive Conservative | Liberal | Green | PANB | NDP | Other | |||||||||
| Sussex-Three Rivers |
|
Tammy Scott-Wallace[103] |
|
Bruce Northrup[125] |
|
Teri McMackin[126] |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Tammy Scott-Wallace Sussex-Fundy-St. Martins |
| Hampton-Fundy-St. Martins |
|
Faytene Grasseschi[127] |
|
John Herron[128] |
|
Laura Myers[90] |
|
Peter Graham[129] |
|
Gordie Stackhouse[92] |
|
|
|
Vacant Hampton |
| Quispamsis |
|
Blaine Higgs[130] |
|
Aaron Kennedy[131] |
|
Andrew Conradi[90] |
|
|
|
Alex White[132] |
|
|
|
Blaine Higgs |
| Rothesay |
|
Ted Flemming[103] |
|
Alyson Townsend[133] |
|
Zara MacKay-Boyce[90] |
|
|
|
Cindy Andrie[92] |
|
Austin Venedam (Ltn.)[134] |
|
Ted Flemming |
| Saint John East |
|
Glen Savoie[135] |
|
David Alston[136] |
|
Gerald Irish[90] |
|
Tanya Graham[137] |
|
Josh Floyd[92] |
|
|
|
Glen Savoie |
| Saint John Portland-Simonds |
|
Paul Dempsey[138] |
|
John Dornan[139] |
|
PJ Duncan[90] |
|
|
|
Michael Saunders[140] |
|
|
|
Vacant Portland-Simonds |
| Saint John Harbour |
|
Adam Smith[141] |
|
David Hickey[89] |
|
Mariah Darling[90] |
|
|
|
Kenneth Procter[92] |
|
|
|
Vacant |
| Saint John West-Lancaster |
|
Kim Costain[142] |
|
Kate Wilcott[143] |
|
Joanna Killen[90] |
|
|
|
Jane Ryan[92] |
|
|
|
Dorothy Shephard† Saint John Lancaster |
| Kings Centre |
|
Bill Oliver[103] |
|
Brian Stephenson[144] |
|
Bruce Dryer[90] |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bill Oliver |
| Fundy-The Isles-Saint John Lorneville |
|
Ian Lee[145] |
|
Patty Borthwick[89] |
|
Rhonda Connell[90] |
|
|
|
Chris Wanamaker[92] |
|
Keith William Tays (Ltn.)[146] |
|
Andrea Anderson-Mason† Fundy-The Isles-Saint John West |
| Saint Croix |
|
Kathy Bockus[147] |
|
Troy Lyons[148] |
|
Mark Allan Groleau[90] |
|
Alex Tessmann[149] |
|
Bola Ademolu[92] |
|
Krysten Mitchell (Ltn.)[150] |
|
Kathy Bockus |
Capital Region
| Electoral district | Candidates | Incumbent | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Progressive Conservative | Liberal | Green | PANB | NDP | Other | |||||||||
| Oromocto-Sunbury |
|
Mary Wilson[103] |
|
Stephen Horsman[151] |
|
Emerald Gibson[90] |
|
|
|
Glenna Hanley[92] |
|
|
|
Mary Wilson Oromocto-Lincoln-Fredericton |
| Fredericton-Grand Lake |
|
Kris Austin[103] |
|
Kevin Dignam[152] |
|
Ken Washburn[90] |
|
Rick DeSaulniers[153] |
|
Arthur Taylor[92] |
|
|
|
Kris Austin |
| Fredericton-Lincoln |
|
Daniel Chippin[154] |
|
Joni Leger[155] |
|
David Coon[90] |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
David Coon Fredericton South |
| Fredericton South-Silverwood |
|
Nicolle Carlin[156] |
|
Susan Holt[157] |
|
Simon Ouellette[90] |
|
|
|
Nicki Lyons-MacFarlane[92] |
|
|
|
Dominic Cardy† Fredericton West-Hanwell |
| Fredericton North |
|
Jill Green[158] |
|
Luke Randall[89] |
|
Anthea Plummer[90] |
|
Glen Davis[159] |
|
Matthew Stocek[92] |
|
|
|
Jill Green |
| Fredericton-York |
|
Ryan Cullins[103] |
|
Tanya Whitney[89] |
|
Pam Allen-LeBlanc[90] |
|
Michael Broderick[160] |
|
Steven LaForest[92] |
|
|
|
Ryan Cullins |
| Hanwell-New Maryland |
|
Judy Wilson-Shee[161] |
|
Cindy Miles[162] |
|
Susan Jonah[90] |
|
Kris Hurtubise[163] |
|
Joël LaPlante[92] |
|
|
|
Jeff Carr† New Maryland-Sunbury |
| Carleton-York |
|
Richard Ames[164] |
|
Chris Duffie[165] |
|
Burt Folkins[90] |
|
Sterling Wright[166] |
|
|
|
|
|
Richard Ames |
Upper River Valley
| Electoral district | Candidates | Incumbent | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Progressive Conservative | Liberal | Green | PANB | NDP | Other | |||||||||
| Woodstock-Hartland |
|
Bill Hogan[103] |
|
Marisa Pelkey[167] |
|
Jada Roche[90] |
|
Charlie Webber[102] |
|
|
|
|
|
Bill Hogan Carleton |
| Carleton-Victoria |
|
Margaret Johnson[103] |
|
Julian Moulton[168] |
|
Rebecca Blaevoet[90] |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Margaret Johnson |
| Grand Falls-Vallée-des-Rivières-Saint-Quentin |
|
Marc-André Ross[169] |
|
Chuck Chiasson[89] |
|
Dani McLean-Godbout[90] |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Chuck Chiasson Victoria-La Vallée |
| Edmundston-Vallée-des-Rivières |
|
Roger Quimper[170] |
|
Jean-Claude D'Amours[89] |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jean-Claude D'Amours Edmundston-Madawaska Centre |
| Madawaska Les Lacs-Edmundston |
|
Michel Morin[171] |
|
Francine Landry[89] |
|
|
|
|
|
André Martin[92] |
|
|
|
Francine Landry |
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