https://twitter.com/DavidRayAmos/with_replies
David Raymond Amos @DavidRayAmos
Methinks the LIEbranos and their nasty spin doctors within CBC are expecting a similar outcome to the election in Quebec tomorrow as the results in New Brunswick last week N'esy Pas?
https://www.cbc.ca/radio/thesundayedition/political-twists-mean-the-quebec-election-is-now-too-close-to-call-1.4841383
Political twists mean the Quebec election is now too close to call
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/grenier-quebec-election-polls-1.4844227
Ahead of Quebec's election, polls indicate François Legault's CAQ is close to winning a majority
CAQ holds narrow lead over incumbent Liberals, but edge among francophones could be decisive
Comments
Jonathan Murphy
Canadians have woken up to
the failure of liberalism everywhere. Provincial liberal governments are
falling across the country because people are fed up with fiscal
mismanagement, lecturing and virtue signalling. Hopefully the federal
liberal government are sent packing next fall and Mr. Trudeau can simply
return to his inherited millions and not do any more damage to this
country.
David Amos
@Jonathan Murphy I agree to a point.
Methinks I would like to see the outcome in this election in Quebec and the federal one next year yield minority governments with polling results just like what the folks in New Brunswick were treated to last week. Maybe then we would finally get the governments we deserve N'esy Pas?
Methinks I would like to see the outcome in this election in Quebec and the federal one next year yield minority governments with polling results just like what the folks in New Brunswick were treated to last week. Maybe then we would finally get the governments we deserve N'esy Pas?
steve martin
The Exorcism of liberals province by province is sure fun to watch
David Amos
@steve martin Welcome to the Circus
ralph jacobs
I think the present Liberal government has turned a lot of Canadians off the Liberal party.
Content disabled.
David Amos
David Amos
@ralph jacobs Methinks Harper
2.0 and his old buddy Maxime love to read such things posted in CBC.
However its rather strange that your comment was not disabled N'esy Pas?
David Amos
@ralph jacobs I agree
Rob Preston
Get rid of the liberals Quebec and be proud again.
David Amos
@Rob Preston Who said they were not?
Roger Jerome
Trudeau owns liberal failure
David Amos
@Roger Jerome Nope Methinks his puppet masters do After all he is just following their orders N'esy Pas?
Terry R Avante
Bye bye liberals. Coast to
coast there is a cleansing taking place. The feds will be next. The
root of division in Canada, the party that attends trade demanding
gender equality as 73% of our export is for goods and services not
values. The party that has its face in every facet of Canadian’s lives.
How much tax dollars are now being funnelled into Quebec in an effort
to prop up the liberal party there? Time for a federal cleansing.
Ken Douglas
@Terry R Avante
Yes, a year and a half ago the BC Liberals were toppled after taking a $5M bribe to approve the TMX expansion. Not $5M to the province, $5M to the party.....the party so far right they almost fell off.
Yes, a year and a half ago the BC Liberals were toppled after taking a $5M bribe to approve the TMX expansion. Not $5M to the province, $5M to the party.....the party so far right they almost fell off.
David Amos
@Ken Douglas Methinks a liberal or a conservative by any other name would smell as corrupt N'esy Pas?
David Kane
The only one who truly loves
Trudeau , is Trudeau ,...….seems the votes lately show that , but the
media tries to spin everyone loves the narcissist
Robbie Adams
@David Kane ..""""The only one who truly loves Trudeau , is Trudeau ,""
I'm sure his wife and kids love him
I'm sure his wife and kids love him
Reid Fleming
@Robbie Adams Is not being
seen in the public eye together for many months an expression of love,
or something else? Justin seems to be flying solo these days...
David Amos
@David Kane "everyone loves the narcissist"
Of course just the dude many Yankees call "The Donald"
Of course just the dude many Yankees call "The Donald"
mo bennett
all aboard justin's gravy train boys! well, for a year and a couple of weeks anyway.
Content disabled.
David Amos
David Amos
@mo bennett I will lay odds you are already on board and have your belly against the the pork barrel N'esy Pas?
David Amos
@mo bennett YO MO Methinks its not fair that you can tease me but I can't do the same to you N'esy Pas?
Ernie Zimmerman
Soon to be another liberal party gone in Canada. The trudeau liberal government is next. Goodbye liberals.
steve curtis
@Ernie Zimmerman
Can't be soon enough!
Can't be soon enough!
Ernie Zimmerman
@steve curtis
I agree.
I agree.
David Amos
@Ernie Zimmerman Me Too
Dave MacDonald
This is historic.The most left wing province in Canada is about to elect a right wing government .
Stanley Baird
@Dave MacDonald workers finally looked at their bank accounts.
David Amos
@Dave MacDonald Methinks that is a telling thing N'esy Pas?
Ahead of Quebec's election, polls indicate François Legault's CAQ is close to winning a majority
CAQ holds narrow lead over incumbent Liberals, but edge among francophones could be decisive
When Quebec's election campaign began
38 days ago, Coalition Avenir Québec Leader François Legault was the
favourite to win a majority government. A few gaffes and ill-defined
policy proposals later, Legault's odds of securing that majority have
dropped to no better than a coin-toss.
But if he has a little luck on his side, the ingredients are there for the centre-right CAQ to reach the 63-seat mark necessary to control Quebec's National Assembly — despite his party enjoying the support of less than one-in-three Quebecers.
The CBC Quebec Poll Tracker,
an aggregation of all publicly released polling data, suggests that the
CAQ sits at 31.8 per cent support. That puts it narrowly ahead of
Philippe Couillard's Liberals, who have 30.1 per cent support.
(The Poll Tracker will be updated on Sunday should any polls be published. Check back here for the latest numbers.)
That's a much narrower margin than the eight-point lead the CAQ held over the Liberals early in the campaign. But it isn't Couillard nor Jean-François Lisée and the Parti Québécois, which stands at 18.8 per cent support, who have been most responsible for the CAQ's slide in the polls.
Instead, Manon Massé's left-wing Québec Solidaire has had the momentum over the last few weeks.
The party, which captured just 7.6 per cent of the vote in the 2014 provincial election, is now averaging 16.3 per cent in the polls.
Despite the small gap between the CAQ and the Liberals, there is little polling uncertainty in where the parties stand. The three most recent polls of the campaign, published by Ipsos/La Presse-Global News, Mainstreet Research/Groupe Capitale Médias, and Léger/Le Journal de Montréal this past week, differ by no more than two points between any of the parties.
That indicates the stability there has been in the numbers. The CAQ has registered between 29 and 32 per cent support in nine consecutive polls, though the latest results all suggest a modest rebound at the expense of the PQ. The last six polls have put the Liberals between 29 and 31 per cent.
There are still, however, a lot of unknowns going into Monday's election.
The Poll Tracker suggests there is a 50 per cent chance that the CAQ will win at least the 63 seats required to form a majority government.
Their range of seats runs from 48 to 81, a wide band suggesting plenty of close contests throughout the province — some of them involving all four major parties.
The Liberals are estimated to have about a one-in-12 chance of winning the most seats, a result of their historically low support among francophones. The party is projected to win between 29 and 55 seats — well short of the majority threshold. But there is enough overlap with the CAQ that the Liberals could emerge with more seats, particularly if their support is underestimated in the polls.
The Parti Québécois is at risk of losing official party status in the National Assembly, which requires at least 12 seats or 20 per cent of the popular vote. The polls suggest the party may fall short of the latter, while the projection model puts them at 11 seats. However, they are involved in many tight races — trailing the CAQ by five points or less in seven ridings according to the Poll Tracker — so a small bump at the ballot box could make a big difference.
Parti Québécois Leader Jean-François Lisée is running third place in the polls. (Paul Chiasson/Canadian Press)
As
for Québec Solidaire, which held only three seats at dissolution, the
party could double or even triple its representation in the National
Assembly. The model awards the party nine seats — as many as six on the
island of Montreal, its traditional base of support, but also one in
Quebec City and two in the rest of the province — but sees a potential
for even more upsets if the party's momentum continues through to
Monday.
But QS could easily fall short of this target, as the party is strongest among young voters, who historically have a low turnout rate.
No party in Quebec has won a majority government with less than 38 per cent of the vote, making the coin-toss odds for a CAQ victory at under 32 per cent a historical anomaly.
But the CAQ has a number of decisive advantages over its rivals. The most important is its support among francophones, estimated to be 37 per cent by the Poll Tracker. That gives the CAQ a 14-point lead over the PQ, which sits at just 23 per cent support. Québec Solidaire is tied with the Liberals at 19 per cent.
Québec Solidaire co-spokesperson Manon Massé could lead her party to a breakthrough off the island of Montreal. (Paul Chiasson/Canadian Press)
Francophones
make up about two-thirds or more of the population in 100 of Quebec's
125 ridings, so the CAQ's wide lead among this demographic gives them a
key edge in their potential seat count.
Regionally, it translates into commanding leads in the Quebec City region and the suburbs around the island of Montreal, and in the rest of the province outside of the two major urban centres.
Only in Montreal do the Liberals hold a lead, thanks to their dominance among non-francophones. The CAQ is about 30 points behind the Liberals on the island, suggesting they may struggle to win their first seat there. But there is little additional ground in Montreal for the Liberals to gain.
Put together, the numbers suggest that the CAQ is very likely to win the most seats and has a good chance of squeaking by with a majority government. Those chances will improve if the Parti Québécois, floundering in the final week, continues to bleed support to the CAQ.
The CAQ would also benefit even if the PQ loses voters to QS instead, as the CAQ and QS are not competing for many ridings, whereas the CAQ and the PQ are.
Quebec Liberal Leader Philippe Couillard hasn't been able to make significant gains for his party in this campaign. (Jacques Boissinot/Canadian Press)
But
all is not lost for the Liberals. They have a historical tendency to
out-perform their polls. That may not happen in this election —
particularly since the possibility of a referendum on Quebec
independence, an issue that has helped drive undecided voters to the Liberals, has been taken off the table by the PQ. But in 2012, the Liberals were on track for a third-place showing. Instead, they emerged just four seats and less than one percentage point short of the Parti Québécois.
That was a different campaign, however, with three parties splitting the vote between them almost equally. That is not the case in 2018, with the PQ on track for its worst showing and QS changing the electoral landscape in the province.
The margin between the CAQ and the Liberals looks close. It could end up that way on Monday. But there is very good reason to believe that Legault, after failing to deliver in his last two campaigns as leader, is finally on track to win.
Join us tonight at 6 p.m. ET for a live election Q&A with our political and polling experts Jonathan Montpetit and Éric Grenier on our Facebook page.
But if he has a little luck on his side, the ingredients are there for the centre-right CAQ to reach the 63-seat mark necessary to control Quebec's National Assembly — despite his party enjoying the support of less than one-in-three Quebecers.
(The Poll Tracker will be updated on Sunday should any polls be published. Check back here for the latest numbers.)
That's a much narrower margin than the eight-point lead the CAQ held over the Liberals early in the campaign. But it isn't Couillard nor Jean-François Lisée and the Parti Québécois, which stands at 18.8 per cent support, who have been most responsible for the CAQ's slide in the polls.
Instead, Manon Massé's left-wing Québec Solidaire has had the momentum over the last few weeks.
The party, which captured just 7.6 per cent of the vote in the 2014 provincial election, is now averaging 16.3 per cent in the polls.
Despite the small gap between the CAQ and the Liberals, there is little polling uncertainty in where the parties stand. The three most recent polls of the campaign, published by Ipsos/La Presse-Global News, Mainstreet Research/Groupe Capitale Médias, and Léger/Le Journal de Montréal this past week, differ by no more than two points between any of the parties.
That indicates the stability there has been in the numbers. The CAQ has registered between 29 and 32 per cent support in nine consecutive polls, though the latest results all suggest a modest rebound at the expense of the PQ. The last six polls have put the Liberals between 29 and 31 per cent.
There are still, however, a lot of unknowns going into Monday's election.
CAQ majority?
The Poll Tracker suggests there is a 50 per cent chance that the CAQ will win at least the 63 seats required to form a majority government.
Their range of seats runs from 48 to 81, a wide band suggesting plenty of close contests throughout the province — some of them involving all four major parties.
The Liberals are estimated to have about a one-in-12 chance of winning the most seats, a result of their historically low support among francophones. The party is projected to win between 29 and 55 seats — well short of the majority threshold. But there is enough overlap with the CAQ that the Liberals could emerge with more seats, particularly if their support is underestimated in the polls.
The Parti Québécois is at risk of losing official party status in the National Assembly, which requires at least 12 seats or 20 per cent of the popular vote. The polls suggest the party may fall short of the latter, while the projection model puts them at 11 seats. However, they are involved in many tight races — trailing the CAQ by five points or less in seven ridings according to the Poll Tracker — so a small bump at the ballot box could make a big difference.
But QS could easily fall short of this target, as the party is strongest among young voters, who historically have a low turnout rate.
Legault holds decisive lead among francophones
No party in Quebec has won a majority government with less than 38 per cent of the vote, making the coin-toss odds for a CAQ victory at under 32 per cent a historical anomaly.
But the CAQ has a number of decisive advantages over its rivals. The most important is its support among francophones, estimated to be 37 per cent by the Poll Tracker. That gives the CAQ a 14-point lead over the PQ, which sits at just 23 per cent support. Québec Solidaire is tied with the Liberals at 19 per cent.
Regionally, it translates into commanding leads in the Quebec City region and the suburbs around the island of Montreal, and in the rest of the province outside of the two major urban centres.
Only in Montreal do the Liberals hold a lead, thanks to their dominance among non-francophones. The CAQ is about 30 points behind the Liberals on the island, suggesting they may struggle to win their first seat there. But there is little additional ground in Montreal for the Liberals to gain.
Majority, minority, red or blue?
Put together, the numbers suggest that the CAQ is very likely to win the most seats and has a good chance of squeaking by with a majority government. Those chances will improve if the Parti Québécois, floundering in the final week, continues to bleed support to the CAQ.
The CAQ would also benefit even if the PQ loses voters to QS instead, as the CAQ and QS are not competing for many ridings, whereas the CAQ and the PQ are.
independence, an issue that has helped drive undecided voters to the Liberals, has been taken off the table by the PQ. But in 2012, the Liberals were on track for a third-place showing. Instead, they emerged just four seats and less than one percentage point short of the Parti Québécois.
That was a different campaign, however, with three parties splitting the vote between them almost equally. That is not the case in 2018, with the PQ on track for its worst showing and QS changing the electoral landscape in the province.
The margin between the CAQ and the Liberals looks close. It could end up that way on Monday. But there is very good reason to believe that Legault, after failing to deliver in his last two campaigns as leader, is finally on track to win.
Join us tonight at 6 p.m. ET for a live election Q&A with our political and polling experts Jonathan Montpetit and Éric Grenier on our Facebook page.
About the Author
Political twists mean the Quebec election is now too close to call
The outcome of Quebec's Oct. 1 election is still far from certain.
About six weeks ago, polls showed Liberal Premier Philippe Couillard was destined to lose to François Legault, leader of the Coalition Avenir Québec. But the tide has turned during the campaign.
- CBC NEWS: Quebec Votes Poll Tracker
- Where Quebec's parties stand on the issues that matter most to you
The PQ used to be one of the two leading parties in the province, but it has lost significant ground during this election.
"That is the party that is self-destroying in front of our eyes, that is the true drama of what's going on here," journalist and filmmaker Francine Pelletier told The Sunday Edition's host Michael Enright.
"Will the Parti Québecois be, essentially, a shadow of itself as of October second?"
Lise Ravary, a columnist for The Montreal Gazette and Le Journal de Montréal, has covered many provincial elections, but none quite like this one.
According to Pelletier, the usual tension of federalism versus separatism has been replaced with a left-right split in this election, with two parties on either side of the divide.
"If you compare the CAQ with the Liberals, there's hardly any difference. Even though François Legault is more to the right of Philippe Couillard, he is no Donald Trump, he's not even a Doug Ford," she said. "The one question this election poses is 'Whither the left?'"
Immigration and identity politics were not as dominant an issue during the campaign as many expected they would be. The CAQ advocated for reduced immigration levels, compulsory courses in French and a mandatory Quebec "values test" for newcomers.
"But it wasn't the emotional issue we lived through when we went through the 'reasonable accommodation' debate," said Ravary. (In 2008, two commissioners in Quebec held months of public hearings on the impact of religious accommodation on Quebec's identity and values.)
Both women predict the CAQ will win the upcoming election. Ravary forecasts a majority government, while Pelletier believes the party will have a minority of seats and will have to form a coalition.
Click 'listen' above to hear the interview.
Comments
Commenting is now closed for this story.
Robert Edward Cox
Do I need this opinion in
this story about "neck and neck" to form my decision on how to vote? Is
this a useful piece of information? Or does it cloud the decision a
person would make with a fanciful interpretation of reality? I already
voted, in order to skip the last-minute hysteria in the media - and it's
a secret ballot, which I won't be revealing, so that "polls" cannot be
accurate if people don't proclaim their choices.
