https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-cabinet-retreat-trump-1.7089458
The spectre of another Trump presidency looms as Trudeau's cabinet gathers to start a new year
The prime minister says his government is prepared — but is that even possible?
What should each party focus on before the House breaks for summer? | CTV Question Period
CTV NewsMay 19, 2024
The Sunday Strategy Session panel discusses the top priorities for each party for the final stretch of Parliament ahead of summer break
From: Chrystia Freeland <Chrystia.Freeland@fin.gc.ca>
Date: Mon, May 20, 2024 at 10:28 PM
Subject: Automatic reply: RE Olivia Rubin has the latest as day 19 of former Pres. Trump's hush money trial c
To: David Amos <david.raymond.amos333@gmail.com>
The
Department of Finance acknowledges receipt of your electronic
correspondence. Please be assured that we appreciate receiving your
comments.
Le ministère des Finances Canada accuse réception de votre courriel. Nous vous assurons que vos commentaires sont les bienvenus.
From: Ministerial Correspondence Unit - Justice Canada <mcu@justice.gc.ca>
Date: Mon, May 20, 2024 at 10:28 PM
Subject: Automatic Reply
To: David Amos <david.raymond.amos333@gmail.com>
Thank you for writing to the Honourable Arif Virani, Minister of Justice and Attorney General of Canada.
Due to the volume of correspondence addressed to the Minister, please note that there may be a delay in processing your email. Rest assured that your message will be carefully reviewed.
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Merci d'avoir écrit à l'honorable Arif Virani, ministre de la Justice et procureur général du Canada.
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From: Moore, Rob - M.P. <Rob.Moore@parl.gc.ca>
Date: Mon, May 20, 2024 at 10:28 PM
Subject: Automatic reply: RE Olivia Rubin has the latest as day 19 of former Pres. Trump's hush money trial c
To: David Amos <david.raymond.amos333@gmail.com>
Thank you for contacting the Honourable Rob Moore, P.C., M.P. office. We appreciate the time you took to get in touch with our office.
If you did not already, please ensure to include your full contact details on your email and the appropriate staff will be able to action your request. We strive to ensure all constituent correspondence is responded to in a timely manner.
If your question or concern is time sensitive, please call our office: 506-832-4200.
Again, we thank you for taking the time to share your thoughts and concerns.
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Office of the Honourable Rob Moore, P.C., M.P.
Member of Parliament for Fundy Royal
From: David Amos <david.raymond.amos333@gmail.com>
Date: Mon, May 20, 2024 at 10:26 PM
Subject: RE Olivia Rubin has the latest as day 19 of former Pres. Trump's hush money trial c
To: <olivia.a.rubin@abc.com>, <bragga@dany.nyc.gov>, David.Fraser <David.Fraser@cbc.ca>, David.Akin <David.Akin@globalnews.ca>, Jacques.Poitras <Jacques.Poitras@cbc.ca>, Robert. Jones <Robert.Jones@cbc.ca>, <toddblanche@blanchelaw.com>, <Pierre-Luc.Dusseault@parl.gc.ca>, Jean-Yves.Duclos <Jean-Yves.Duclos@parl.gc.ca>, pm <pm@pm.gc.ca>, kris.austin <kris.austin@gnb.ca>, martin.gaudet <martin.gaudet@fredericton.ca>, Mark.Blakely <Mark.Blakely@rcmp-grc.gc.ca>, Tyson Billings <fuctnfree@hotmail.ca>, fin.minfinance-financemin.fin <fin.minfinance-financemin.fin@canada.ca>, Marco.Mendicino <Marco.Mendicino@parl.gc.ca>, Dana-lee Melfi <Dana_lee_ca@hotmail.com>, waynenarvey <waynenarvey@hotmail.com>, blaine.higgs <blaine.higgs@gnb.ca>, premier <premier@gov.ab.ca>, premier <premier@ontario.ca>, <Emil.Bove@blanchelaw.com>, pierre.poilievre <pierre.poilievre@parl.gc.ca>, Anderson-Mason, Andrea Hon. (JAG/JPG) <Andrea.AndersonMason@gnb.ca>, jagmeet.singh <jagmeet.singh@parl.gc.ca>, <Steve.Outhouse@gnb.ca>
Cc: mdcohen212 <mdcohen212@gmail.com>, mcu <mcu@justice.gc.ca>, rob.moore <rob.moore@parl.gc.ca>, ragingdissident <ragingdissident@protonmail.com>, robert.mckee <robert.mckee@gnb.ca>, washington field <washington.field@ic.fbi.gov>, <Steve.Outhouse@gnb.ca>, hugh.flemming <hugh.flemming@gnb.ca>
Tuesday 14 May 2024
FIERY: Vivek Ramaswamy Absolutely Loses It On Judge Merchan Over Trump's NYC Hush Money Trial
Forbes Breaking News 2,409 Comments
Did Michael Cohen sink case against Trump? Hear what CNN panel thinks
4,529 Comments
From: David Amos <david.raymond.amos333@gmail.
Date: Tue, May 14, 2024 at 5:57 PM
Subject: Fwd: RE 'Beyond angry': Former Trump confidant testifies financial feud followed hush-money payment
To: <toddblanche@blanchelaw.com>, <Emil.Bove@blanchelaw.com>
toddblanche@blanchelaw.com
Emil Bove, Esq. (PHV)
Emil.Bove@blanchelaw.com
BLANCHE LAW
99 Wall St., Suite 4460
New York, NY 10005
(212) 716-1250
'Beyond angry': Former Trump confidant testifies financial feud followed hush-money payment
Michael Cohen also told the court about lying to protect former U.S. president
Before Mikey Cohen is crossed examined tomorrow Perhaps I should inform Alexander Panetta of my old comments and Cohen's emails
---------- Original message ----------
From: David Amos
Date: Tue, 14 Feb 2017 10:51:14 -0400
Subject: RE FATCA, NAFTA & TPP etc ATTN President Donald J. Trump I just got off the phone with your lawyer Mr Cohen (646-853-0114) Why does he lie to me after all this time???
To: president , mdcohen212@gmail.com, pm , Pierre-Luc.Dusseault@parl.gc.ca, MulcaT , Jean-Yves.Duclos@parl.gc.ca, B.English@ministers.govt.nz, Malcolm.Turnbull.MP@aph.gov.au , pminvites@pmc.gov.au, mayt@parliament.uk, press , "Andrew.Bailey" , fin.financepublic- financepublique.fin@canada.ca, newsroom , "CNN.Viewer.Communications. Management" , news-tips , lionel
Cc: David Amos , elizabeth.thompson@cbc.ca, "justin.ling@vice.com, elizabeththompson" , djtjr , "Bill.Morneau" , postur , stephen.kimber@ukings.ca, "steve.murphy" , "Jacques.Poitras" , oldmaison , andre
---------- Original message ----------
From: Michael Cohen
Date: Tue, 14 Feb 2017 14:15:14 +0000
Subject: Automatic reply: RE FATCA ATTN Pierre-Luc.Dusseault I just
called and left a message for you
To: David Amos
Effective January 20, 2017, I have accepted the role as personal
counsel to President Donald J. Trump. All future emails should be
directed to mdcohen212@gmail.com and all future calls should be
directed to 646-853-0114.
________________________________
This communication is from The Trump Organization or an affiliate
thereof and is not sent on behalf of any other individual or entity.
This email may contain information that is confidential and/or
proprietary. Such information may not be read, disclosed, used,
copied, distributed or disseminated except (1) for use by the intended
recipient or (2) as expressly authorized by the sender. If you have
received this communication in error, please immediately delete it and
promptly notify the sender. E-mail transmission cannot be guaranteed
to be received, secure or error-free as emails could be intercepted,
corrupted, lost, destroyed, arrive late, incomplete, contain viruses
or otherwise. The Trump Organization and its affiliates do not
guarantee that all emails will be read and do not accept liability for
any errors or omissions in emails. Any views or opinions presented in
any email are solely those of the author and do not necessarily
represent those of The Trump Organization or any of its
affiliates.Nothing in this communication is intended to operate as an
electronic signature under applicable law.
---------- Original message ----------
From: "Finance Public / Finance Publique (FIN)"
Date: Fri, 10 Feb 2017 22:05:00 +0000
Subject: RE: Yo President Trump RE the Federal Court of Canada File No T-1557-15 lets see how the media people do with news that is NOT FAKE
To: David Amos
The Department of Finance acknowledges receipt of your electronic
correspondence. Please be assured that we appreciate receiving your
comments.
Le ministère des Finances accuse réception de votre correspondance
électronique. Soyez assuré(e) que nous apprécions recevoir vos
commentaires.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-union-convention-philadelphia-1.7203953
Trudeau to deliver speech at international union convention in Philadelphia
PM invited to address Service Employees International Union convention on May 21
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is set to promote Canada's trade relationship with the United States in a speech to one of the biggest unions in North America next week.
Trudeau's office says he was invited to speak at the Service Employees International Union quadrennial North American convention on May 21.
The speech comes as Canada is bracing for the possibility of a second presidency for Donald Trump, who has already threatened to slap a 10 per cent tariff on all imports, including those from Canada.
The SEIU has endorsed President Joe Biden in the race.
It has more than two million members, including some in Canada, representing a broad range of workers in multiple service jobs including health care, restaurants, security, schools and airports.
While in Philadelphia, Trudeau is also expected to meet with U.S. business leaders.
Pennsylvania is one of Canada's most critical trade relationships in the U.S., with two-way trade in excess of $27 billion in 2023.
Fossil fuels, metals, pharmaceuticals and food products, including chocolate, are among the biggest imports and exports on both sides.
Canadian companies employ more than 25,000 workers in Pennsylvania.
Omar Khadr denied appeal by U.S. Supreme Court
Khadr, who completed his sentence in 2019, was hoping to vacate U.S. conviction
The U.S. Supreme Court on Monday turned away a Canadian former Guantanamo Bay detainee's bid to vacate his convictions for the 2002 murder of an American soldier in Afghanistan and other crimes he committed at age 15 to which he later pleaded guilty.
The justices declined to hear an appeal by Omar Khadr, 37, of a lower court's refusal to hear his case on the grounds that he had waived his right to appellate review as part of a 2010 plea agreement before a U.S. military commission.
Khadr was one of the youngest prisoners held at the detention facility at the U.S. naval base in Cuba. Khadr pleaded guilty in exchange for an eight-year sentence and transfer to a Canadian prison. He was granted bail in 2015 and completed his sentence in 2019 as he continued to pursue dismissal of his U.S. convictions.
He was taken to Afghanistan by his father, a senior al-Qaeda member who apprenticed his son to a group of bomb makers who opened fire when U.S. troops came to their compound in 2002. During the firefight, Khadr, 15, threw a hand grenade that killed Sergeant Christopher Speer, a U.S. Army medic. Khadr was gravely wounded — shot twice — when he was captured by U.S. forces.
In 2007, Khadr was charged under a 2006 U.S. law called the Military Commissions Act with five crimes including murder and attempted murder in violation of the law of war and providing material support to terrorism. He was 24 when he pleaded guilty.
In 2012, a federal appeals court in a separate Guantanamo Bay detainee's case issued a decision with potential implications for Khadr. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit ruled that defendants could not be charged under the Military Commissions Act for certain crimes that occurred prior to the law's adoption in 2006.
Former Guantanamo Bay prisoner Omar Khadr walks out of court a free man
Despite having agreed to waive his right to appellate review, Khadr appealed to the D.C. Circuit. Attorneys for Khadr argued that his convictions, which were based on actions he took in 2002 before Congress passed the statute, violated the U.S. Constitution's ban on criminalizing conduct after it has occurred.
The D.C. Circuit rejected Khadr's appeal because of his waiver of appellate review.
At issue in Khadr's petition to the Supreme Court was whether he is bound by his agreement to waive his right to appeal, not whether his convictions should be immediately vacated.
Khadr's attorneys told the Supreme Court that although Khadr had agreed to waive his right to appeal, he had not actually filed the paperwork to finalize the waiver when the D.C. Circuit issued its ruling establishing a new legal standard favourable to Khadr's case.
President Joe Biden's administration had urged the justices to turn away Khadr's appeal.
Khadr's plea deal came in a case that made the U.S. the first nation since the Second World War to prosecute a defendant in a war crimes tribunal for acts allegedly committed as a juvenile. Khadr's lawyers had argued unsuccessfully at the time that he was a child soldier who should be rehabilitated rather than prosecuted in a military tribunal.
Canada formally apologized to Khadr in 2017 "for any role Canadian officials may have played in relation to his ordeal abroad and any resulting harm" and paid out $10.5 million in compensation.
The United States opened the Guantanamo detention facility for foreign terrorism suspects in 2002, months after U.S. forces invaded Afghanistan in the aftermath of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the U.S. by al-Qaeda militants who were harboured by the country's Taliban leaders. The Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan in 2022 after Biden withdrew U.S. forces.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/supreme-court-immunity-oral-arguments-1.7184474
U.S. Supreme Court weighs extent of immunity for former presidents like Trump
Top court's ruling could potentially delay or constrain one of the 4 prosecutions Donald Trump faces
U.S. Supreme Court justices on Thursday questioned a lawyer for Donald Trump about the former president's claim of immunity from prosecution for his efforts to overturn his 2020 election defeat, posing hypotheticals about what happens if a president accepts a bribe, sells nuclear secrets or orders a political assassination.
Lower courts rejected Trump's request to be shielded from four election-related criminal charges on the grounds that he was serving as president when he took the actions that led to the indictment obtained by special counsel Jack Smith, assigned to that investigation by the Justice Department.
It's new territory for the top court, as a president has never faced criminal charges before Trump. Richard Nixon accepted a pardon issued by successor Gerald Ford that pre-empted any possibility of criminal consequence over the Watergate scandal, while Bill Clinton struck a deal with independent counsel to avoid a potential indictment for perjury after he denied an affair with intern Monica Lewinsky during a deposition for a sexual harassment lawsuit filed by Paula Jones.
Trump is the presumptive Republican candidate for president a third consecutive time.
"If a president can be charged, put on trial and imprisoned for his most controversial decisions as soon as he leaves office, that looming threat will distort the president's decision-making precisely when bold and fearless action is most needed," D. John Sauer, the lawyer arguing for Trump, told the justices.
Demonstrators
participate in a protest outside the U.S. Supreme Court on Thursday in
Washington, D.C., where the top court heard oral arguments about
immunity of former presidents concerning acts that occurred while they
were in office. (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)
Presidential power under the microscope
Liberal justice Sonia Sotomayor asked Sauer if a president could get immunity if he ordered "someone to assassinate" a political rival.
Conservative chief justice John Roberts raised an example of a president appointing an ambassador in exchange for a bribe.
"Somebody says, 'I'll give you a million dollars if I'm made the ambassador to whatever," Roberts said.
The
U.S. Supreme Court justices are shown on Oct. 7, 2022, in Washington,
D.C. From top left to right are Amy Coney Barrett, Neil M. Gorsuch,
Brett M. Kavanaugh and Ketanji Brown Jackson. Seated in the bottom row,
from left to right, are Sonia Sotomayor, Clarence Thomas, Chief Justice
John G. Roberts, Jr., Samuel A. Alito, Jr. and Elena Kagan. (Reuters)
Sauer responded that bribery is not an official act, but rather private conduct that would not be protected.
Roberts responded, "Accepting a bribe isn't an official act, but appointing an ambassador is certainly within the official responsibilities of the president."
Conservative justice Clarence Thomas asked Sauer what is the source of this presidential immunity. Sauer cited powers given to the president under the Constitution.
Justices concerned about wayward leaders, prosecutors
Michael Dreeben, representing the special counsel, told the justices that the Supreme Court has never recognized the kind of immunity that Trump seeks for a public official.
Alito brought up the spectre for Dreeben of a cycle of leaders seeking through their administrations the prosecutions of predecessors or rivals.
"And we can look around the world and find countries where we have seen this process where the loser gets thrown in jail," Alito added.
"So I think it's exactly the opposite, Justice Alito," Dreeben responded. "There are lawful mechanisms to contest the results in an election."
Roberts signalled concern about reliance on "the good faith of the prosecutor" in certain cases, taking pains to state he wasn't offering comment on Smith's indictment of Trump.
Trump
arrives to speak at a rally protesting the electoral college
certification of Joe Biden as president on Jan. 6, 2021, in Washington. (Evan Vucci/The Associated Press)
"I do think that there are layered safeguards that the court can take into account that will ameliorate concerns about unduly chilling presidential conduct," Dreeben responded. "That concerns us. We are not endorsing a regime that we think would expose former presidents to criminal prosecution in bad faith, for political animus, without adequate evidence. A politically driven prosecution would violate the Constitution."
Trump did not attend the Supreme Court arguments. He was attending trial in New York over allegations he falsified business records to hide payments made to cover up allegations of extramarital affairs, a case that would not be affected by the top court's opinion on immunity.
"If you don't have immunity, you're not going to do anything. You're just going to become a ceremonial president," Trump told reporters heading into court in Manhattan.
Pressed on fake electors scheme
The Supreme Court's 6-3 conservative majority includes three justices who Trump appointed: Amy Coney Barrett, Brett Kavanaugh and Neil Gorsuch.
It is the third Trump-related matter the top court has heard in less than two months, though their opinions could impact future officeholders. Last month, the court overturned a judicial decision that had excluded him from Colorado's ballot under a constitutional provision involving insurrection for inciting and supporting the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol by his supporters.
They are also considering a question on whether obstruction charges are applicable for a Pennsylvania defendant who was at the Capitol that day. Trump also faces obstruction charges in the Smith indictment, though the specifics of the allegations are quite different from those facing the Pennsylvania man.
Outside the white marble court building ahead of the arguments on a partly cloudy spring day in the U.S. capital, a small number of demonstrators displayed anti-Trump signs including one that read, "LOSER."
An
explosion caused by a police munition is seen while supporters of U.S.
President Donald Trump descend upon the U.S. Capitol Building in
Washington, D.C., on Jan. 6, 2021. (Leah Millis/Reuters)
Trump took numerous steps to try to reverse his 2020 loss to Joe Biden. His false claims of widespread voting fraud helped inspire the rampage at the Capitol on the day Congress met to certify Biden's victory. Trump and his allies also devised a plan to use false electors from key states to thwart certification.
Liberal justice Elena Kagan pressed Sauer on whether Trump's alleged role in assembling a fake slate of electors constituted an "official act." Sauer said Trump's conduct was official and amounted to acts aimed at ensuring the integrity of the election.
Kagan responded, "The allegation is that he was attempting to overthrow an election."
Trump in October 2023 sought to have the charges dismissed based on his claim of immunity. U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan rejected that claim in December. Smith then asked the justices to launch a fast-track review of the immunity claim, a request they rebuffed. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit in February ruled 3-0 against Trump's appeal of Chutkan's ruling.
The Supreme Court's decision to put off hearing arguments over immunity until now postponed Trump's trial from an original March 4 date. Legal experts have said the justices would need to rule by about June 1 for Trump's trial to be held before the Nov. 5 election.
The ruling could force Chutkan to decide whether to begin a trial in September or October, when early voting already will be underway in some states.
If Trump regains the presidency, he could seek to force an end to the prosecution or potentially pardon himself for any federal crimes.
"Happily it's never been presented to us," justice Neil Gorsuch said of the prospect of a self-pardon at one juncture on Thursday.
Trump also faces election subversion charges in state court in Georgia and federal charges in Florida brought by Smith relating to keeping classified documents after leaving office. Trump was referred to as an unindicted co-conspirator in fresh indictments handed down of several of his allies in Arizona on Wednesday.
With files from CBC News
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-cabinet-retreat-trump-1.7089458
The spectre of another Trump presidency looms as Trudeau's cabinet gathers to start a new year
The prime minister says his government is prepared — but is that even possible?
In August 2016, when the current government was less than a year old, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his cabinet gathered at Laurentian University in Sudbury, Ont. for a two-day retreat. The ministers bunked in the student dorms. The big story of the week concerned a $1,700 bill for car service incurred by Jane Philpott, health minister at the time.
Among their special guests were Michael Barber, the British guru behind "deliverology," and David MacNaughton, the experienced Liberal adviser who was serving as Canada's ambassador to the United States.
"All of the smart people in Washington were saying the Democrats were going to win the House, the Republicans would retain the Senate and Hillary Clinton would win the election," MacNaughton later told me. "And I qualified it by saying, 'All of the smart people in Washington have been consistently wrong for 18 months, so don't count on it.'"
At that point, national polls gave Clinton a six-point lead over her Republican rival. But the government needed to be prepared for every eventuality, MacNaughton told the ministers.
Three months later, Donald Trump was elected president of the United States.
As Trudeau's ministers gather in Montreal for meetings this week, the possibility of a Trump presidency haunts Canada again. If anything, it seems even more plausible now than it did in 2016 — even after Trump incited a violent attack on the United States Capitol in 2021, even after he was indicted on 91 felony charges. Recent polls show President Joe Biden and Trump running roughly even.
The Liberal cabinet likely will spend most of its time discussing purely domestic matters during its two days in Trudeau's hometown — "building more homes" and "helping the middle class get ahead" will be topics of discussion, according to the official announcement. But ministers "will also discuss Canada's relationship with the United States ahead of this fall's presidential election."
Kirsten Hillman, MacNaughton's successor as ambassador, will be in Montreal to speak with the cabinet. She will be joined for a panel discussion by Flavio Volpe, president of the Automotive Parts Manufacturers Association; Laura Dawson, executive director of the Future Borders Coalition; and Marc-Andre Blanchard, Canada's former ambassador to the United Nations and now executive vice-president at CDPQ Global.
Whatever insight or counsel they might provide, there's a lot to think — and worry — about.
The sequel might be more explosive than the original
During Trump's four years in office between 2017 and 2021, the American president was something like a constant source of concern for the Canadian government. That was particularly true during the year and a half when Trump forced Canada and Mexico to renegotiate NAFTA.
That negotiation — and the threat it posed to the Canadian economy — prompted a massive diplomatic effort. Canadian officials fanned out to rally friends and find allies in American political and business circles. If that campaign met with some success, it still consumed great amounts of time and energy — and ended not in celebration but in relief.
And then there was everything else. The American withdrawal from the Paris climate accords The blow-up at the G7. The aluminum and steel tariffs. The tweets. The regular and repeated demands to comment on whatever new outrage or controversy was making news in the United States.
The Trump agenda in a second term likely would be even more dramatic. He could withdraw from the NATO military alliance, end American support for Ukraine and start new trade wars.
Former U.S. president Donald Trump leaves Trump Tower for Manhattan federal court for the second defamation trial against him. (Charley Triballeau/AFP/Getty Images)
"We could expect, right off the bat, that 10 per cent universal tariff that Trump intends to impose, not just on other countries but on Canada as well," Dawson told CBC Radio's The House this weekend.
And of course, there's the profound threat Trump poses to American democracy.
"One thing that Canadian politicians on all sides of the political spectrum are going to have to grapple with is, what does it mean to live next to a neighbour whose head of government and head of state is not just engaging in fascist, or borderline fascist, rhetoric, but is taking the policy steps to back it up?" Rob Goodman, a professor at Toronto Metropolitan University and a former congressional staffer, told The House.
With a few exceptions, Trudeau and his ministers were highly restrained in what they said — and didn't say — about Trump, both when he was a candidate in 2016 and when he was president. The possibility of provoking a fight with real consequences for Canadians and the economy seemed to be constantly top-of-mind for the prime minister.
Trudeau might be at least somewhat more willing to speak now. He has acknowledged being concerned about what a Trump presidency might mean for the global fight against climate change. He has also spoken about the choice Americans are facing — a choice he has opted to compare to the one Canadians will face in the next federal election.
Trudeau's Liberals have not shied away from comparing Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre to Trump. The phrase "MAGA Conservatives" recently entered the Liberal lexicon.
Perhaps that's undiplomatic. But Poilievre, an unabashed populist, shouldn't be surprised that Liberals are trying to draw such comparisons.
Canadians will be watching
When given the hypothetical choice, Canadians vastly prefer Biden to Trump — a poll released this week by Abacus Data found that 66 per cent of respondents favoured the Democratic incumbent, compared to 34 per cent for the likely Republican candidate.
There is a significant split along party lines. While more than 80 per cent of Liberal, NDP and Bloc Quebecois voters favour Biden, 57 per cent of Conservative voters prefer Trump.
(Perhaps surprisingly, Abacus finds that support for Trump is somewhat higher than the average among younger Canadians — a result that lines up with Pollara's recent finding that younger Canadians feel less negatively toward Trump.)
Canadians' understandings of the stakes are somewhat mixed. Sixty-four per cent of respondents to a survey by the Angus Reid Institute agreed that "U.S. democracy cannot survive another four years of Donald Trump." But only 32 per cent of respondents to Abacus said the election would have a "major impact" on Canada.
According to Abacus, 28 per cent of Canadians are following the presidential election "quite" or "very" closely. Another 43 per cent were following it "a little." Those numbers will surely grow over the next 10 months. American politics might be one of the world's most popular spectator sports, but in Canada it often seems to subsume even public interest in our own politics.
But ultimately, Canadians and their leaders can only watch and wonder, and try to prepare for all eventualities.
Trudeau said this week that his government will be ready for whatever decision Americans make this year — and no Canadian government can afford to appear unready or unable to manage the Canada-U.S. relationship. In addition to focusing cabinet's attention, Hillman's appearance might be about showing and telling Canadians that the government is getting ready.
But Thomas Juneau, an associate professor in the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Ottawa, suggested to Politico this week that it might not be possible to be completely prepared for what comes next.
"Politically, I understand why he would say that, but Canada is not ready," said Juneau, who has identified "democratic backsliding" in the United States as a security threat for Canada.
"Nobody can be ready because it would be so unpredictable."
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Trudeau announces 'Team Canada' approach to U.S. election
Liberal government wants to be ready for 'whatever gets tossed at us'
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced Tuesday that he has assigned two cabinet ministers to lead a new "Team Canada" engagement to ensure Canada and his government are prepared for all possible outcomes from this fall's United States presidential election.
"Canada-U.S. relations are fundamental for the prosperity and well-being of Canadians," Trudeau told reporters in Montreal, where he is wrapping up two days of meetings with his cabinet.
Trudeau said he has asked Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne and Export Promotion, International Trade and Economic Development Minister Mary Ng to work with Ambassador to the U.S. Kirsten Hillman on "a Team Canada approach" with "businesses, entrepreneurs, organized labour, civil society groups, different orders of government, to make sure that we're ready to continue to benefit as Canadians from a strong relationship with the United States."
Hillman was in Montreal to meet with the federal cabinet on Tuesday.
Ministers also heard from Flavio Volpe, president of the Automotive Parts Manufacturers Association; Laura Dawson, executive director of the Future Borders Coalition; and Marc-Andre Blanchard, Canada's former ambassador to the United Nations and now executive vice-president at the investment group CDPQ Global.
Trump strongly favoured to win GOP nomination
Joe Biden, the incumbent president, is expected to face former president Donald Trump in November's election. Trump is the overwhelming favourite to win the Republican party's nomination — and could strengthen his hold on the nomination with a win in the New Hampshire state primary on Tuesday night.
The "engagement strategy" announced by Trudeau on Tuesday resembles the diplomatic effort undertaken by the Liberal government in the wake of Trump's election in 2016.
To buttress Canada's position in the North American Free Trade Agreement negotiations that followed, Canadian officials and leaders fanned out across American political and business sectors to make the case for continued co-operation between the two countries.
"We know there's always challenges whenever there's an American election," Trudeau said on Monday. "But as we have before, we are going to be ready to deal with whatever gets tossed at us and make sure we're defending Canadian interests and opportunities in a strong relationship."
Trudeau acknowledged that Trump "represents a certain amount of unpredictability" but said it's important for the Canadian government to work constructively with the U.S. president.
Speaking to reporters after meeting with cabinet, Volpe said it was a "good, candid" discussion. Volpe was involved in the NAFTA negotiation efforts and said his association's role was to be "ready to provide substantive, quantitative information" about Canadian investments in the U.S. and American interests in Canada.
Flavio
Volpe, president of the Automotive Parts Manufacturers Association,
says his organization has learned something about how to deal with a
Trump presidency. (CBC)
"I think everybody knows that he goes to the protectionist well very often," Volpe said of Trump. "When we talk about American interests, it's important, whether it's Trump or Biden, we always are ready to turn around and show everybody that the American interest is, in large part, the Canadian interest."
Volpe said dealing with the ramifications of a Trump presidency from 2016 to 2020 was a learning experience.
"I think we learned that it was important to keep our information and our contacts very current. Specifically, in the auto sector, we know exactly where the 126 auto parts plants that are owned by Canadians are across the U.S. and we know the local congressional representative and we've been speaking with the senator," he said.
"I think we're better prepared this time because we've [rid] ourselves of the idea that you can check in when there's trouble. You should always be in contact."
Champagne and Ng both stressed how integrated American and Canadian supply chains are.
"Our integrated supply chains support millions of jobs," Champagne said. "I've said that if there's one thing that President Trump understood and understands, it's jobs."
Hillman argued that Canada must advocate for its interests regardless of who occupies the White House and that it's important to "focus on the issues."
"I find that at the local level, Republican or Democrat, people care about jobs, security, prosperity, clean water, energy security, energy affordability — those aren't really partisan issues," she said. "I think approaching it in that way is essential for Canada. Because that's what matters to us and we need to meet them on the issues, not on the politics, which are their own."
But Thursday also brought a reminder of the unwanted attention that Canada sometimes received during Trump's time as president.
While campaigning in New Hampshire, Trump repeated his complaints about irregular immigration and security along the U.S. southern border. But he also agreed with a reporter who asked about the northern border — a concern that has popped up during the Republican primaries.
"You have to watch both borders," Trump said. "And you have to watch fly-ins, you have to watch everything. But the southern border is like nobody's ever seen. But the northern border is bad too. It's getting bad."
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with a file from Alexander Panetta
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/trump-tariff-canadian-diplomatic-deployment-1.7153227
Canada is already preparing for Trump's potential tariff threats
Dozens of Canadian diplomats mobilize across Capitol Hill as American election campaign gets underway
Canada staged a large-scale diplomatic deployment this week in preparation for a U.S. presidential election of more consequence than usual.
More than a dozen Canadian diplomats posted in various U.S. cities came to Washington to meet with scores of American lawmakers on Capitol Hill.
Looming over their visit was the potential return of Donald Trump to the White House. In particular, there's one Trump policy they're watching warily this year.
The former president has promised a worldwide tariff on imported goods if he wins. This would be stricter than any trade policy from his first term.
Trump has offered minimal details about the policy in his campaign literature and in media interviews but has said he envisions a 10 per cent global tax.
Would that apply to Canada?
Neither Canadian officials, nor Trump's allies, have a clear answer on that. Trump has been vague about which countries and products might be included or exempted.
But Canada's starting position, as one might expect, is that, no, there should not be penalties on a country — ours — that recently signed a free-trade agreement with Trump, which he has praised repeatedly as the best ever.
"We will have a serious conversation with them if they're looking to apply that policy to us," Kirsten Hillman, Canada's ambassador, told CBC News.
"But I think the starting point is that it shouldn't — and we have just concluded a deal that is 99 per cent tariff-free," she said, referring to the new NAFTA.
Kirsten
Hillman, Canadian ambassador to the U.S., led a delegation that
consisted of a dozen Canadian consuls-general to various U.S. cities as
they met with over 50 members of Congress this week. (CBC)
Tariffs on Canada? Depends who you ask
It's worth watching Trump's platform closely, as current polls give him a decent chance of being returned to office in the November election.
Even in Washington there's no clear consensus on what his policy might ultimately look like. Ask different people about tariffs on Canada, and you'll get different answers.
"I have a hard time believing that would be the case," Michigan Republican congressman Bill Huizenga told CBC News. "Especially when it comes to the trade agreement that he negotiated, and led."
North Dakota Sen. Kevin Cramer says that's exactly what he tells Trump: "We talk about these things a fair bit," he said. "I think we should have a North American strategy. Not a U.S.-only strategy."
Sen.
Kevin Cramer, seen here in 2018 with Trump, says he speaks frequently
to the former president and advises him against tariffs within North
America. (Evan Vucci/The Associated Press)
An expert who supports Trump's tariff policies says he's not sure this will affect nations with free-trade deals; he suspects it probably will, but adds that Trump is attempting to do something unprecedented under modern law.
"There's literally no precedent," said Charles Benoit, a Canadian-born, U.S.-based trade lawyer with Coalition For A Prosperous America, a pro-domestic manufacturing group.
He expects Trump would invoke the Trade Act of 1974. Its section 122 allows a president to set a maximum 15 per cent tariff, for up to 150 days, in the event of a balance-of-payments deficit with other nations, which the U.S. consistently has.
He says Trump could then try extending it, again and again, every 150 days. This would certainly trigger lawsuits, as the law says extending it requires an act of Congress.
Benoit's advice: Let it lapse for a day, then keep reimposing the tariffs every 151 days.
"I think that that's something that the president could do. Just do it — [and] do it a second time after letting it lapse," he said in an interview.
One of Washington's best-known trade-policy experts over several decades says such behaviour would make a mockery of the language in the bill.
It would be challenged in court, Gary Hufbauer said. Meanwhile, countries would launch retaliatory tariffs.
As for Canada, here's his prediction: The northern neighbour will get an exclusion, as would Mexico. But it won't come for free.
He expects Trump to use the threat as a negotiating ploy — a stick to threaten Canada and Mexico into making concessions.
"He will bargain — to get something for that exclusion," Hufbauer said, noting that when it comes to Trump, "[It's] all transactional."
As for what Trump might ask for, he's already complained, as has the Biden administration, about the way Canada has implemented certain aspects of the new NAFTA. Specifically, dairy and autos.
"Dairy comes up right away," Hufbauer predicted.
Parsing the words of Trump's trade czar
One thing Trump has already succeeded at doing is reorienting the American political consensus on trade.
The current Biden administration has maintained most of his policies. The two presidents may differ in style, but they agree substantively on trade.
That philosophy has been articulated at length by Trump's former trade minister. In his book and several magazine pieces, Robert Lighthizer has laid out some of the tariff policies Trump is now running on.
Trump's
former trade minister Robert Lighthizer, seen here in 2020, remains
influential. He has advocated for these tariffs and argued in detail for
why the U.S. needs tougher trade policy. (Andrew Harnik/Reuters)
Lighthizer remains in the picture: He's advising the Trump campaign, and recently said publicly that he intends to be involved in the next administration if Trump wins; either serving in an official role, or as an outside adviser.
His basic argument is that globalization has impoverished the U.S. working class; made the country incapable of producing vital goods; lost manufacturing industries that drive innovation; and left it dependent on a potential military rival (China) for basic everyday products.
He has little patience for people who call the United States protectionist, when it has among the lowest tariffs in the world.
And when it comes to Canada, Lighthizer's book takes the country to task for seeing itself as a free trader, then adopting "parochial" and "protectionist" policies around everything from dairy to television to telecoms.
He said tariffs on Canadian and Mexican steel were useful; Trump imposed them, then lifted them, and threatened to reimpose them.
"The fact that President Trump was willing to impose tariffs on two of America's closest trading partners — one of whom, Canada, is also one of our closest allies — sent an unmistakable signal that business as usual was over," Lighthizer wrote in his book, No Trade Is Free.
What next?
The tangible effects of Trump's trade policies remain in dispute.
Several studies say his tariffs had a minimal positive impact on U.S. jobs, and a minimal harmful impact on the economy and inflation.
One trade economist and historian says Trump's policies shifted some production from China, primarily to Vietnam and Mexico; meanwhile, China bought more food from Brazil.
"In the political debate, both the benefits and the costs [of tariffs] tend to get exaggerated," said Douglas Irwin of Dartmouth College.
But what Trump is proposing now is bigger than his first-term tariffs, which the Congressional Budget Office said shaved 0.3 per cent off the U.S. economy.
Trump also wants Congress to pass a law that would allow reciprocal tariffs — massive duties on countries with high tariffs, like India and China.
Trump
touts his tariffs on washing machines at an Ohio Whirlpool plant in
2020. A study by economists at the U.S. Federal Reserve says those
tariffs created 1,800 jobs, but raised prices on washing machines by
about $90. It's an example of how tariffs had small effects, both
positive and negative. (Joshua Roberts/Reuters)
Irwin says the real risk is that in the long term, Trump's policies could trigger a domino effect, toppling the rules-based trading system, making commerce more political and less predictable and leading to tit-for-tat retaliation. He says countries that rely most heavily on the U.S. for trade are the most vulnerable.
"You're right to be worried in Canada."
Benoit takes the opposite view. If Trump managed to enact his entire agenda, with the biggest tariffs on Asia, he says Canada would enjoy a renaissance in manufacturing.
Instead of reflexively opposing some of these policies, he says Canada should offer to team up with Trump to impose similar tariffs against China.
"Canada should say: 'We're with you. We're walking shoulder to shoulder with you,' " Benoit said.
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