David Raymond Amos @DavidRayAmos
Replying to @DavidRayAmos @alllibertynews and 49 others
Methinks very sneaky Louis-Philippe Gauthier's buddy Johnny "Never Been Good" Wishart one the Irving Clan's many spindoctors recalls my rant about the economy in this debate he oversaw (1hr 9 min mark) N'esy Pas?
https://davidraymondamos3.blogspot.com/2020/07/too-early-to-predict-economic-toll-from.html
#nbpoli #cdnpoli
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6rwqnxIGV1g
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/businesses-struggle-to-survive-covid-1.5642367
Too early to predict economic toll from COVID-19
15 per cent of survey respondents contemplating bankruptcy
· CBC News · Posted: Jul 09, 2020 5:00 AM
Some businesses that closed temporarily during the lockdown have remain closed. Business groups say it's too soon to predict how many will never reopen. (Justin Tang/The Canadian Press)
While the economic death toll from COVID-19 isn't yet clear, recent layoff announcements likely foreshadow bad news in the coming months, say some business leaders.
Figuring out how many businesses won't survive the pandemic is "a really elusive target that we do need to get a handle on," said John Wishart, the chief executive officer of the Chamber of Commerce for Greater Moncton.
Wishart said it's important to track the casualties in order to "respond accordingly."
He said his chamber is part of a larger regional group trying to track the numbers and, so far, a clear picture isn't emerging.
"I think it's just a complete shot in the dark in terms of the number of business closures," said Wishart.
He suspects it'll take another six to 12 months to really see what kind of toll COVID-19 has taken on New Brunswick businesses.
A survey by the Canadian Federation of Independent Business shows New Brunswick at the top for percentage of workers back on the job. (Canadian Federation of Independent Business)
The first real test will come after government funding comes to an end in the cpming weeks, said Wishart.
"Can you survive without that wage support? Or will it mean having to re-lay off some people — perhaps permanently this time around."
He suspects recent layoffs may offer a hint of financial trouble ahead. Irving Oil just announced 250 job cuts, while Organigram previously announced 220, WestJet nearly 280, and Atlantic Lotto, 60.
"I'd love to say that's the end of it, but we know it's not," Wishart said. "We can probably expect to see other announcements — maybe not the same size — for the next six months or so."
If businesses survive at the cost of huge job losses, Wishart wonders if the economy is any better off.
At one point, he said, 50,000 New Brunswickers were out of work — "some of them temporarily, but that's still a huge percentage of the overall workforce.
"There is a domino effect through all this. If good-paying jobs disappear, then that's tough on retail shops, on restaurants and grocery stores. So it still has a net cumulative negative impact on the economy."
And if companies can't get back on fiscal track after laying off employees, the outcome usually isn't good, said Wishart.
"I think what we're seeing is a retrenchment in terms of the size of operations and the number of people that are employed as a first step or first wave of impact.
"And if that doesn't work … the next step will be probably permanent closure."
In the most recently published survey by the Canadian Federation of Independent Business, New Brunswick tops the list for percentage of businesses open. (Canadian Federation of Independent Business)
The Canadian Federation of Independent Business's director of provincial affairs for New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island said "it's way too early" to know how many businesses will fall victim to COVID-19.
But Louis-Philippe Gauthier said business owners are definitely worried about it.
In a recent survey, 15 per cent of respondents in New Brunswick said they were "actively considering bankruptcy/winding down my business as a result of COVID-19."
While 68 per cent of businesses are open, 70 per cent of these say they are operating below normal revenue.
"How much of that is going to translate over the next six to 12 months into business failures is something that we're actively looking at," said Gauthier.
"When you look at 14 to 15 percent of our members in New Brunswick saying they're potentially considering closing down their businesses or declaring bankruptcy, those are numbers that, even if they're small, they're very important and something that we have to be mindful of."
Looking for help
The CEO of the Saint John Region Chamber of Commerce said it's likely too early to gauge the economic fallout because businesses are still exploring the funding available to them."I don't think we know what that number will look like, but I estimate that it's going to be high in our region," said David Duplisea.
"People are looking for information and advice and they're looking for ways to reinvent themselves," he said.
While he's not sure it's a positive sign at this stage, he hasn't heard of any businesses that have already decided to call it quits.
In the most recently published survey by the Canadian Federation of Independent Business, 46 per cent of respondents reported making half or less of normal sales this time of year. (Canadian Federation of Independent Business)
He said certain industries will be particularly hard hit, including those based on hospitality and tourism. Restaurants, for example, have been faced with a "multi-dimensional dilemma," he said.
They already operate on slim margins and are forced to reduce capacity to enable physical distancing. Add to that, consumer reluctance to dine out, and reduced tourism numbers, and the future looks pretty bleak, said Duplisea.
Any business that found itself struggling before COVID-19, will likely not survive, he said.
24 Comments
Commenting is now closed for this story.
David Amos
This is not a problem for rocket scientists to resolve I trust that any Maritimer with two clues between their ears has already figured it out
Tim Biddiscombe
Reply to @David Amos: So whats your answer for businesses in trouble, genius?
James Smythe
Reply to @Tim
Biddiscombe: A complete reopening, while all the freshly minted
hypochondriacs can stay home for as long as they want is the only
solution. I’d prefer a virus with 0.2% mortality rate than a 15% chance
or higher of complete long lasting economic suicide.
David Amos
Reply to @Tim
Biddiscombe: Trust that your buddies know I answered that question
during a televised debate on Rogers TV during the last Federal election
Ask Wishart He was one of the dudes who oversaw that circus while I was
arguing Gauthier in secret meetings about NB Power at the same point
time
David Amos
Reply to @Tim
Biddiscombe: I owned and ran a successful business in NB while you
hustled blue jeans in Ontario for Yankees Correct?
Terry Tibbs
Reply to @Tim Biddiscombe:
I don't *think* there is a single one magic answer that fits every situation. I would *think* that after an enforced 3 month holiday any "marginal" business is so badly damaged that there will be no recovery. I *think* those forced to only partially use their facilities might as well pull the plug.
ALL I can see for many is to max out any government loans/grants, pay out suppliers, and go bust, leaving the government holding the bag.
I don't *think* there is a single one magic answer that fits every situation. I would *think* that after an enforced 3 month holiday any "marginal" business is so badly damaged that there will be no recovery. I *think* those forced to only partially use their facilities might as well pull the plug.
ALL I can see for many is to max out any government loans/grants, pay out suppliers, and go bust, leaving the government holding the bag.
David Amos
Reply to @Terry Tibbs: I concur
Lou Bell
Reply to @James
Smythe: Do as you please like the other 10 % naysayers ! No one's
stopping you nor really carees ! We'll do what we want and move slowly ,
just stay out of our road !
Lou Bell
Reply to @David Amos:
Successful ? Really ? We've seen your posts indicating you to be in
dire straights . What do you consider successful ?
James
Smythe
Reply to @Lou Bell:
There are far more than 10% who feel the same as I do. You’re confusing
to it very vocal minority with my more silent majority, but I’m not
surprised given your degree of self-absorption.
Ray Oliver
Reply to @Lou Bell:
It folded like a cheap tent and via his blog readings he sold off the
inventory kept the proceeds and slipped past the Yankee border as he
called it and away from any trouble resulting! LOL successful!!
Terry Tibb
I
find it amusing that this information, generated by folks who have an
obvious self interest, is being presented to us as "news".
David Amos
Reply to @Terry Tibbs: Trust that I have already crossed paths with both those dudes in Moncton in a bigtime fashion
Tim Biddiscombe
Reply to @David Amos: How can anyone trust anything you say, N'esy Pas?
David Amos
Reply to @Tim Biddiscombe: Ask me in court
Lou Bell
Reply to @David Amos: I'm sure they'd remember you , in a hilarious sort of way !
Ray Oliver
Reply to @David Amos: Bigtime fashion, Reduced to using Trump vocabulary. You're circling the bowl of life Davey boy
David Amos
Reply to @Terry Tibbs: Speak of the devil and it is sure to appear
Ray Oliver
Reply to @David Amos: Thanks for the compliment well fair king. How was the staycation in the restigouche center? Be in this place!!!
Ray Oliver
Reply to @David Amos: so with all your phone calls and legal connections any luck with finding ray Oliver? Oh yeah goldilocks.. your a legal certified schi zoo Phrenic
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