Liberal leader's bid for first seat is not a sure thing in Miramichi
Michelle Conroy of PA fits populist mould Miramichi voters might like, says political scientist
It could be a tight race in Miramichi on Monday between Liberal Leader Kevin Vickers, seeking his first seat in the New Brunswick legislature, and Michelle Conroy of the People's Alliance, who has represented the riding for two years.
"She's personable, approachable with the kind of personality that is empathetic," Geoff Martin, who teaches political science at Mount Allison University, said of Conroy.
Martin grew up in Miramichi and believes Conroy's hands-on approach combined with the fact that she knows the people in her community and is comfortable talking to everyone are qualities that are "highly valued" by voters.
Conroy also fits the mould of a populist politician that goes over well with people in Miramichi, where 10,038 people are eligible to vote in the provincial election on Monday.
Martin wonders whether voters may have a different perception of Vickers.
'I'm all about community'
Over the past two years, Conroy said, she has worked to help make improvements in the riding.
She has done everything from helping to keep the community clean by picking up garbage in ditches, to organizing students to shovel sidewalks and driveways for seniors during snow storms.
"I'm all about community." Conroy said.
Vickers has spent much of his adult life outside New Brunswick.
He returned to Miramichi after a successful career that started with the RCMP. He garnered national attention when, as the sergeant-at-arms at the House of Commons, he shot a gunman that had stormed Parliament Hill. He then served as the Canadian ambassador to Ireland.
Martin said that despite those accomplishments, Vickers is not entrenched in the community, which makes this race more difficult for him to win.
"There's a sense of him being not as charismatic, perhaps a little bit aloof — not as much having the common touch."
It's that dichotomy between Conroy and Vickers that have political pundits watching this riding closely.
"It certainly is an interesting race, and I think it's a race where the larger provincial issues come into play," said Martin.
Election issues in Miramichi
The riding of Miramichi was created in 2013. It falls within the Miramichi city limits and includes the former communities of Newcastle and Chatham.
It is an area that needs an economic boost.
"Jobs. We need jobs in the Miramichi," said Wayne Bushey, president of the Miramichi Chamber of Commerce. "And affordable housing."
The refurbishment of Centennial Bridge is another key issue in the riding. The bridge is the primary link between northern and southern New Brunswick on the eastern side of the province. Delays and the cancellation of key contracts mean there is no longer a completion date for the project that was started in 2015.
The community has also seen a sharp increase in the number of people struggling with drug addictions. The use of crystal methamphetamine is on the rise.
"We have such a huge drug problem here in this riding," said NDP candidate Eileen Clancy Teslenko.
PC candidate, Charles Barry, also sees this as a major issue in the riding.
"Get the poison off the streets, because it's affecting our youth. It's destroying lives. It's destroying families."
Political scientist Geoff Martin said it's possible PC candidate Charles Barry will take some votes away from Michelle Conroy if people believe the PCs will form a majority government. (Charles Barry/FaceBook)
Vickers and Conroy have different ideas about what will solve the problem, and their approaches offer some insight into their differing styles of politics.
Vickers said he would put together a provincial strategy that's based on prevention, detection and -recovery.
His is a long-term approach, similar to a national strategy he wrote during his career, to combat the sexual exploitation of children on the internet.
Vickers said Canada is now seen as a leader by police forces around the world as a result of that national strategy.
"So it's with that background and that knowledge that I would tackle this issue of crystal methamphetamine."
Conroy takes a much more hands-on approach to the rise in drug use, and said her eyes were opened to the problem when she was helping displaced residents after two apartment buildings had to be vacated.
"I got to meet a lot of people and see the drug culture on a different level," she said.
That experience led her to start working with Harvest House Atlantic to set up an addiction recovery and long-term rehabilitation program in Miramichi.
Conroy said the project is well underway and details are being finalized so the recovery centre can open.
No guarantees
Geoff Martin says Conroy's practical, grassroots style of politics will make this a tough race for Vickers to win.
"There's no guarantee he can win the seat," he says. "This is not a safe seat for him."
There's no doubt that Michelle Conroy and the PC party candidate, Charles Barry, are to some degree going after the same voting pool there.- Geoff Martin
Martin said what might work in Vickers's favour is vote splitting.
"There's no doubt that Michelle Conroy and the PC party candidate, Charles Barry, are to some degree going after the same voting pool there."
The other candidates on the ballot for Miramichi are Joshua Shaddick with the Green Party and Independent candidate Tristan Sutherland.
Martin thinks voters who supported the People's Alliance in 2018, may vote for the PCs this time if there is a perception the party could win the election.
When asked to predict a winner, Martin said, "I have no idea, to be honest.
"I think it would be pure speculation. I'm reluctant to say, because I'm almost sure I'm going to be wrong."
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267 Comments
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Jos Allaire
Conroy's sole reason for running in politics was over the language issue, no other reason. Therefore, she joined the party with a single issue, bilingualism. Sure, their sole claim to fame is changing motor vehicule registration requirement from one to two year. Big deal!
Johnny Jakobs
Reply to @Jos Allaire: You should run for office.
David Amos
Content disabled
Reply to @Johnny Jakobs: That would be a hoot to see
David Amos
Content disabled
Reply to @David Amos: Methinks Maggie should try to replace her leader after the PANB Lady wins the show down with Bam Bam next week N'esy Pas?
Jos Allaire
Reply to @Johnny Jakobs: You couldn't pay me enough.
Johnny Jakobs
Reply to @Jos Allaire: lol, I agree.
David Amos
Jos Allaire
She's done absolutely nothing for the Francophones in her riding.As a matter of fact, she shuns them. And to add insult to injury, she claims to have Acadienne origins, but has no regret not to have learned French.
David Amos
Content disabled
Reply to @Jos Allaire: Still at it EH?
Jos Allaire
Reply to @David Amos: You're one to talk after your 9631 posts and counting.
David Amos
Reply to @Jos Allaire: Who are you talking to about what?
Bill Henry
Can you imagine if Vickers doesn’t even win his own seat. Lol
val harris
Reply to @Bill Henry: Can you imagine if Higgs gets a minority government and resigns within a week.. LOL
David Amos
Content disabled
Reply to @val harris: Higgy won't quit no matter what
val harris
Reply to @David Amos: He called an election because he didnt have the power so no he wont sit around for the next 4 years in a minority...
Billy Buckner
Reply to @val harris: - if the PA and PC can pass votes then I think he hangs around.
janice small
Im giving Conroy the edge on in this riding..
David Amos
Reply to @janice small: She has more than that
Mike Chiasson
Reply to @janice small: I would love to see her win the seat
David Amos
Reply to @Mike Chiasson: Me Too
Jos Allaire
Shoveling snow and picking up garbage and bottle along the road and in the ditch a politician do not make.
Reply to @Jos Allaire: Wow do you say anything positive?
David Amos
Reply to @Jos Allaire: Methinks its very obvious that the popularity of this PANB lady has put your fancy SANB knickers in quite a knot N'esy Pas?
Reply to @Jos Allaire: I have nothing against French culture or language. As I have repeatedly stated though, why should others fund your culture?
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