The Liberals could be crushed in the next election. Why would anyone want to lead them?
Chrystia Freeland, Mark Carney, former B.C. premier Christy Clark all possible candidates
Back in 2012, when Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty announced he would resign, Kathleen Wynne says many people were asking the same questions: Who would run for leadership of the provincial Liberal party and — more importantly, given its grim prospects at the time — why would anyone want to?
"I made a decision to run for the leadership in that context, fully expecting that I wouldn't win, but also that we were on a path to lose [the next election]," Wynne — who succeeded McGuinty as both leader and premier — told CBC News.
So she has a little insight into why anyone would want to lead the federal Liberals following Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's resignation, even though polls suggest the party could suffer a massive defeat in the next election.
(Although Wynne was elected in 2014, she also knows what it's like to be politically decimated, having been crushed in the 2018 vote, and being left as one of only seven Liberals elected to the legislature.)
"If you expect to lose, then you are prepared to rebuild. You're prepared to ferret out what's wrong and try to try to solve those problems because you believe in the project that you believe in the people," Wynne said.
"There has to be a fire in your belly to take that on."
Former
Ontario premier Kathleen Wynne speaks as she is honoured at the
provincial Liberal Party leadership convention in Mississauga, Ont., on
March 6, 2020. (Frank Gunn/The Canadian Press)
That fire, in the case of the next Liberal leader, may need to last for a long time — and in the political wilderness. CBC's Poll Tracker shows the Conservatives would secure a landslide majority government if an election were held today, with the Liberals in danger of falling into third, behind the Bloc Québécois, or perhaps even fourth, behind the NDP in the seat count.
Other polls suggest the situation is so dire, the Liberals could end up losing official party status, unable to secure the 12 seats needed in the House of Commons.
The next Liberal leader might see the job as playing a long game, says Laura Stephenson, a political science professor at Western University in London, Ont.
"You think about it as 'I'm going to come in now and I'm going to start staking my claim and I'm going to propose rebuilding … I'm not expecting to win this [election], but I'm hoping to win the next one.'''
"It depends on how committed are they to public service and what are their long-term goals."
There does not appear to be a shortage of potential candidates, including former finance minister and deputy prime minister Chrystia Freeland, economic adviser Mark Carney, former B.C. premier Christy Clark and government House Leader Karina Gould.
Here are some potential candidates who could replace Trudeau | Power & PoliticsLori Turnbull, a political science professor at Dalhousie University, says despite the prospect of losing big in the next election, many have been waiting for Trudeau to step aside.
"The party's fortunes are much worse than they would have been had he left two years ago. But that doesn't mean they don't want to try," she said.
"Because the other thing is, if you don't do it, then what? You're going to wait six years for your turn?"
Turnbull says she can see why someone like Gould — who, at 37, has lots of "time and runway" — might take on the leadership, with the understanding it may be "freaking awful" but that she'd be willing to do the work to rebuild.
"I could see something like that … because that's still a worthwhile project. It's still the Liberal Party."
See Trudeau's full speech announcing he's stepping down as Liberal leaderBut she says the decision to run really depends on where a potential candidate is in their life, which is why she questions why someone like Carney would be interested.
The former governor of both the Bank of Canada and, more recently, the Bank of England is "a big mover and shaker globally. Really, you're going to be the leader of a third-place party? Why would you do that?"
She says similar questions could be asked of Freeland, who has held high-profile roles in the government.
And yet, Turbull says people who aspire to political leadership often have a very strong sense of personal efficacy.
"They believe they can turn the tide and beat the odds. So there might be some people who don't accept the predictions that many have made for the Liberal Party."
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Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc not seeking Liberal Party leadership
Liberal MPs gather for first time since Trudeau announced his resignation
Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc, whose name has been circulating as a potential Liberal leadership contender, says he will not be seeking the party's top job.
In a statement, the New Brunswick MP said he is touched by support he received but said Canada is at "a critical juncture in its relationship" with the U.S., and said he believes he can better serve the country by working to stop president-elect Donald Trump from imposing steep tariffs on Canadian goods.
"The threat these tariffs pose to our nation's economic well-being and to the livelihood of a countless number of Canadian families cannot be understated — and as such, it requires nothing less than my full attention," the minister said.
LeBlanc touched by support to run for Liberal leadership, but will not runTrump has ratcheted up his rhetoric, threatening Tuesday to use "economic force" to make Canada the 51st state.
LeBlanc's decision comes as Liberal MPs gather in Ottawa with the daunting task of choosing a new leader — quickly.
After a cascade of calls to resign, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced Monday he'll step down as soon as his party chooses a successor.
The Governor General has also agreed to his request to prorogue Parliament until March 24. That gives the Liberals just over two months to mount a leadership campaign and ready for an all-but-certain spring election.
Whoever takes over the Liberal leadership would become Canada's next prime minister, although it could be a very short tenure.
Trudeau's Liberals have been trailing the Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives by more than 20 points in the polls for more than a year. The opposition parties have been clear they plan to vote non-confidence in the government at their first opportunity, triggering an election.
The national caucus meeting, which was on the calendar before Trudeau's announcement earlier this week, is set to take place on Parliament Hill and last about six hours.
Some names for leadership consideration are already coming out of the woodwork.
Trudeau says he’ll step down. What happens next? Cabinet colleagues Innovation Minister François-Philippe Champagne and Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson have told CBC they're considering a bid. On Tuesday Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly said she's reflecting on a leadership run.
Former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney has also said he is mulling a campaign.
Sources said former finance minister Chrystia Freeland, whose abrupt resignation last month likely hastened Trudeau's decision, has been making calls.
Some Liberals already naming preferred candidates
While no one has officially launched a campaign, some MPs are already lining up behind candidates at least informally.
Toronto—Danforth MP Julie Dabrusin said she thinks Freeland "would be an amazing candidate."
"I think that she's shown that she has experience in negotiating with the United States in tough times; she's been really good with working with our provinces," she said before the Ontario caucus meeting Tuesday night.
Joly says she is considering run for Liberal leadershipOttawa-area MP Anita Vandenbeld said she'd be interested in an outside candidate like Christy Clark. The former premier of British Columbia has expressed an interest in wanting "to be part of the conversation on the future direction of the Liberal Party."
"I think we need someone who can really bring new people in," she said.
How and when the party will choose that person isn't yet clear. Neither the rules governing the leadership process nor a date have been announced.
Liberal party executives say they are also gathering this week to figure out a way forward.
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Trudeau says 'not a snowball's chance in hell' Canada joins U.S.
Trump said Tuesday he'd be willing to use 'economic force' to join countries
Trudeau says ‘not a snowball’s chance in hell’ Canada joins U.S.Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Tuesday dismissed U.S. president-elect Donald Trump's willingness to use "economic force" to absorb Canada into the United States by reiterating what his Canadian government has said for some time: merging countries is not in the realm of possibility.
"There isn't a snowball's chance in hell that Canada would become part of the United States," Trudeau wrote on X.
"Workers and communities in both our countries benefit from being each other's biggest trading and security partner."
At a news conference earlier Tuesday, a bombastic Trump said he would consider using "economic force" to join Canada and the United States together.
"That would really be something," he said in Palm Beach, Fla.
"You get rid of the artificially drawn line and you take a look at what that looks like and it would also be much better national security. Don't forget: We basically protect Canada."
Trump says he would use 'economic force' on Canada, not militaryWhen pressed on the issue, Trump later acknowledged he has no "right" to absorb the country into his own. Criticizing American spending on Canadian goods, he said the United States is still not obligated to support its closest neighbour economically.
Canada and the U.S. have a trillion-dollar trade relationship.
In his answer, Trump pointed to several key imports he felt Americans didn't need: including the automotive, lumber and dairy sectors. The U.S. imported $614.3 billion Cdn worth of goods from Canada in 2022, according to the Office of the United States Trade Representative, and is Canada's best customer when it comes to oil and petroleum.
On dairy, Trump said the U.S. doesn't need Canadian products, saying, "We have more than they have." Ongoing trade tensions between the two nations, however, are about the U.S. wanting to export more dairy products to Canada, not Canada exporting more dairy to the U.S.
In only his second news conference since his election victory in November, Trump reiterated his intent to impose "substantial" tariffs on Canada and Mexico when he returns to the White House in less than two weeks.
Trump previously threatened to impose a 25 per cent tariff on all imports from the two neighbouring nations unless they do more to address border security.
He did not campaign on a plan to annex Canada but has spoken repeatedly in favour about Canada becoming "the 51st state."
Prime
Minister Justin Trudeau announces his resignation outside Rideau
Cottage in Ottawa on Monday. He will step down once the Liberals choose a
new party leader. (Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press)
Gordon Giffin, a former U.S. ambassador to Canada, said Trump's blustering about absorbing his northern neighbour is only a negotiating strategy to add urgency to his long-standing economic grievances.
"Threatening Canada? I guess it sounded like that, but in the final analysis I think it's all about economics and I think he's had economic frustrations with respect to the North American economic experience since his first term," Giffin told CBC News Network on Tuesday.
"Whether he means some 'acquisition' of Canada by the United States by any means? I actually don't believe that."
- What do you want to know about Canada-U.S. relations ahead of Donald Trump's second term as president? Send an email to ask@cbc.ca.
In his own statement, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre said "Canada will never be the 51st state. Period."
On X, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh made his own threat against Trump.
"No Canadian wants to join you. We are proud Canadians. Proud of the way we take care of each other and defend our nation. Your attacks will hurt jobs on both sides of the border," he wrote.
"You come for Canadians' jobs, Americans will pay a price."
Trump also eyeing Panama Canal, Greenland
Though he said he was not considering military force on Canada, he remarkably did not rule out that option to have the U.S. take back control of the Panama Canal and acquire the Danish territory of Greenland.
"No, I can't assure you on either of those two. But I can say this: we need them for economic security," he said of the latter.
He said he would "tariff Denmark at a very high level" if it does not give Greenland to the U.S.
Mexican, Danish and Panamanian authorities did not immediately comment. Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino has previously rejected the notion of turning the canal back to the U.S., which had owned it before handing over control to Panama in 1999.
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With files from Reuters and CBC's Jenna Benchetrit
No longer a joke: Ministers say Trump's threats to absorb Canada need to be taken seriously
Trump said Tuesday he'd be willing to use 'economic force' to join countries
Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc said Wednesday that U.S. president-elect Donald Trump's assertions that Canada should become the 51st state should be taken seriously, after he initially dismissed them as a joke.
"The joke is over," LeBlanc told reporters in French.
"The president and his allies continue to repeat this — we know it's not going anywhere — but the fact that he's repeating it, it's not very constructive."
Cabinet ministers weigh in on Trump’s threats to absorb Canada LeBlanc joined Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on a trip to Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida in late November after the president-elect threatened to hit Canada with hefty tariffs.
Following the meeting, Fox News reported that Trump said if Canada can't handle the economic effects of a punishing 25 per cent tariff on its goods, it should become the 51st state of the U.S.
When asked at the time about Trump's comment, LeBlanc said it wasn't meant to be taken seriously.
"In a three-hour social evening at the president's residence in Florida on a long weekend of American Thanksgiving, the conversation was going to be lighthearted. The president was telling jokes, the president was teasing us, it was, of course, in no way a serious comment," LeBlanc said in December.
But since that November meeting, Trump has repeatedly referenced Canada as the "51st state" and Trudeau as "governor" in various social media posts.
The president-elect repeated his assertion that the U.S. should absorb Canada during a press conference on Tuesday and that he would consider using "economic force" to make it happen.
"That would really be something," he said in Palm Beach, Fla.
"You get rid of the artificially drawn line and you take a look at what that looks like and it would also be much better national security."
Though he said he was not considering military force on Canada, he remarkably did not rule out that option to have the U.S. take back control of the Panama Canal and acquire the Danish territory of Greenland.
Trump's latest comments sparked a more forceful response from Trudeau than he has given in the past weeks.
"There isn't a snowball's chance in hell that Canada would become part of the United States," Trudeau wrote in a social media post on Tuesday.
Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Andrew Furey said Wednesday that even if Trump was joking, it's a joke that shouldn't be dismissed.
"His history has been to create chaos in an attempt [at] humour. But then often those become policy statements and reality," Furey said of the president-elect.
N.L. premier warns Trump’s attempt to take Canada’s sovereignty will 'come at a significant cost’Furey said it was "unacceptable" that the U.S. would "threaten" Canadian sovereignty the way Trump has.
"Sovereignty comes at an incredible price — a price paid by blood," Furey told reporters Wednesday.
"To try to take that away is going to come at a significant cost."
A number of federal cabinet ministers said Wednesday that Trump's comments should be taken seriously.
"When president-elect Trump talks, we need to listen and we need to take him very seriously," Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly told reporters.
"I never take his threats lightly. At the same time, we can't take the bait," she said.
Immigration Minister Marc Miller said "there's no chance in hell" Canada would become part of the U.S.
"They'd have to find us on a map first," Miller quipped.
"It's silly. It's unbecoming of a president, any president who would say that. But we do have to take it seriously."
Backbench Liberal MP Ken McDonald said he still thinks Trump's comments are a joke and a way for the president-elect to get attention.
"There's no way they're going to take over Canada, I mean I'd die on the cross fighting for that one," McDonald told reporters Wednesday.
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What does Justin Trudeau's departure mean for federal public servants?
Former head of the public service says to expect further downsizing
The upcoming change in national leadership following Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's announcement that he plans to step down is thickening the cloud of uncertainty shrouding the future for federal public servants.
Since the Liberals took office in 2015 — to cheers at some government offices — the core public service (excluding tens of thousands of military, RCMP and National Capital Commission positions, for example) has grown by about 85,000 employees, according to the Treasury Board.
Canada's population has grown at a slightly slower rate over the same period.
Just under half of the federal public service is employed in the Ottawa-Gatineau area.
Among the many changes that occurred during Trudeau's term, Canada's $1.4-billion budget surplus in 2015 had turned into a $61.9-billion deficit by last month's economic statement.
The former head of the public service told Radio-Canada Trudeau implemented new programs and institutions, creating a "very busy, very active government" that contributed to the growth.
"A lot of people in the public service now have only known growth, and that's probably coming to an end," said Michael Wernick, now a top researcher on public service at the University of Ottawa.
"The tone of the public and political debate is that people want to see a tapping of the brakes on spending and on the size of the public service. So my guess is whoever wins the election, the 2026 budget is going to involve a fair bit of downsizing and cutting and relocation," Wernick said.
WATCH | One expert's take on approaches to the public service:
Former head of public service says to expect cuts The 2024 budget included a plan to shrink the size of the entire public service by 5,000 jobs or about 1.3 per cent over four years.
It's not yet clear what a new Liberal leader's financial plan will be, but Conservatice Leader Pierre Poilievre has long led national polling and long advocated for smaller government and less government spending.
Mixed emotions from civil servants
"We don't know what to expect with whatever government comes in," said David Cavlovic, who's been a permanent federal civil servant for seven years and works at Statistics Canada.
Employees have been concerned about spending more days in the office, he said, but now the concern of job security is tacked on.
"I think the security of knowing where we're going to be a year from now, two years from now is pretty much on the top of mind of a lot of people — especially younger people," Cavlovic said.
Some aren't concerned yet.
"We've had the reassurances there won't be any cuts," said Zachary Nick, who works at Health Canada. "I think through attrition it's not going to play out the way people think it is."
'Any kind of cuts could be harmful'
Nathan Prier, president of the Canadian Association of Professional Employees union, said this wouldn't be the first time the sector sees major cuts, pointing to former prime minister Stephen Harper.
During Harper's nearly decade in office, the Conservatives became embroiled in battles with the bureaucracy over spending and service cuts, policy decisions and restrictions on public commentary about research by federal scientists.
The increased staffing under the Trudeau government was meant to play catch-up, Prier said, but also to accommodate Canada's growing population and its needs.
Canadian
Association of Professional Employees President Nathan Prier, seen here
at a rally in Ottawa in September 2024, says his union and members are
concerned about job security in the months ahead. (Nickolas Persaud/Radio-Canada)
"The public sector is the backbone of the government. When any government makes really big promises, it's public sector employees who end up delivering that," Prier said.
"When the resources and the support that they need to do their jobs are stripped away, it's Canadians who are going to suffer the consequences, and then the public sector gets blamed for being ineffective," he added.
"I want to work in collaboration, consultation and co-development with the federal government to find out what is best for the federal public service because I think any kind of cuts could be harmful to the Canadian public," said Sean O'Reilly, president of the Professional Institute of Public Service Canada union.
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With files from Robyn Miller and Radio-Canada's Martin Comtois
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