Tuesday 20 June 2023

Results expected soon for federal byelections in Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec

 

Results expected soon for federal byelections in Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec

Change in party representation in any of these ridings would be considered a major upset

The polls closed at 9:30 p.m. ET (8:30 p.m. CT). CBCNews.ca will bring you the results as they filter in.

The four seats in question have been considered "safe" for the parties that currently hold them.

If any of these ridings changes hands, it would be considered a major upset — a departure from pattern that could shift the power dynamic in Ottawa.

Even if seats don't change hands, these byelections could serve as a barometer reading on how voters in four geographically diverse ridings perceive the current state of affairs and the leaders of Canada's two major political parties.

A Liberal flop in stronghold seats would suggest Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his cabinet are in a tough spot. That would validate some national polls that say support for the government has slumped after nearly eight years in power.

A Conservative loss — or a failure to make inroads in potentially winnable seats — would suggest fledgling leader Pierre Poilievre still has work to do to win over voters.

Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount

The Montreal-area riding of Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount, an urban seat last occupied by former cabinet minister and astronaut Marc Garneau, has been Liberal red for generations.

While it's considered a Liberal stronghold, many anglophones in the riding were angered by the government's recent overhaul of the Official Languages Act.

Pedestrians standing at a street light in NDG-Westmount, Montreal. They're surrounded by campaign signs There are 10 candidates on the ballot in the federal riding of Notre-Dame-de-Grâce-Westmount in Montreal. (CBC)

The Liberal candidate is Anna Gainey, the party's past president and a friend of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. She's up against teacher Jean-François Filion for the NDP, student Laurence Massey for the Bloc Quebecois, accountant Mathew Kaminski for the Conservatives and the Green Party's deputy leader Jonathan Pedneault.

Winnipeg South Centre

Winnipeg South Centre, an urban seat held by Liberal MP Jim Carr until his death, has been in the Liberal win column for decades — except for a four-year gap period the 2011 election that produced a Conservative majority.

Ben Carr, a school principal and former political staffer, is running for the Liberals to replace his late father.

He's up against Damir Stipanovic, an air traffic controller running for the Conservatives; Julia Riddell, a clinical psychologist representing the NDP; Doug Hemmerling, an educator with the Green Party; Tylor Baer, a DJ with the People's Party of Canada; and Tait Palsson, running as an Independent.

Oxford

Oxford, a largely rural riding in southwestern Ontario, has been held by a Conservative since the Progressive Conservative and Canadian Alliance parties merged in the early 2000s.

Longtime Conservative MP Dave MacKenzie triggered the byelection when he stepped down in January.

His daughter Deb Tait ran for the party's nomination and lost — a result that prompted accusations by Tait of wrongdoing, which the party has denied.

Arpan Khanna, a lawyer who previously ran for the party in Brampton, Ont., will carry the Conservative banner.

In an unusual move, MacKenzie and his daughter have endorsed the Liberal candidate, David Hilderley, a retired principal and real estate agent, over Khanna, who has been called a "parachute candidate" for his tenuous connection to the riding.

A composite image showing three men from the shoulders up. Conservtive candidate Arpan Khanna, Liberal candidate David Hilderley and New Democratic Party candidate Cody Groat are running in the southern Ontario riding of Oxford, expected to be one of the night's tightest races. (arpankhanna.ca, davidhilderley.liberal.ca, oxfordndp.ca)

Speaking to the Canadian Press on Monday, MacKenzie said the party infighting has resulted in "the nastiest campaign that we've ever seen in our riding."

"It's divided our party and our community," he said.

Cody Groat, a New Democrat, is also on the ballot.

Portage-Lisgar

Manitoba's Portage-Lisgar, a riding long held by former interim Conservative leader Candice Bergen, is among the safest Conservative seats in the country — although the People's Party candidate posted strong numbers in the COVID-era 2021 federal election.

Conservative candidate Branden Leslie, a former political staffer who worked for a grain farmers' advocacy group, is being challenged by People's Party of Canada Leader Maxime Bernier.

Maxime Bernier is pictured outside a courthouse in Winnipeg. Maxime Bernier, leader of the People's Party of Canada, speaks to reporters in Winnipeg on May 16, 2023 after appearing in court and being fined $2,000 for breaking COVID-19 restrictions in Manitoba in 2021. (Steve Lambert/Canadian Press)

Bernier is trying to exceed the 21.58 per cent his party got in the last election — the movement's best result nationwide.

Leslie and Bernier have traded barbs throughout the campaign. Bernier has called his opponent a "fake" conservative. Leslie, in turn, has called Bernier "an opportunist from Quebec who will say or do anything he thinks people want to hear."

To take on the far-right Bernier, Poilievre visited the riding and used rhetoric targeting the World Economic Forum — an international organization that has become a focus of many right-wing conspiracy theories online — during a stump speech.

Leslie and Bernier will be on the ballot alongside Liberal candidate Kerry Smith — who leads a Métis employment and training department — Lisa Tessier-Burch, a teacher running for the NDP, and Green Party candidate Nicolas Geddert, who has worked in housing.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR


John Paul Tasker

Senior writer

J.P. Tasker is a journalist in CBC's parliamentary bureau who reports for digital, radio and television. He is also a regular panellist on CBC News Network's Power & Politics. He covers the Conservative Party, Canada-U.S. relations, Crown-Indigenous affairs, climate change, health policy and the Senate. You can send story ideas and tips to J.P. at john.tasker@cbc.ca.

With files from The Canadian Press

CBC's Journalistic Standards and Practices

 

 

4479 Comments




David Amos 
Before the tally is reported I maintain that there will no change in party representation in any of these ridings  
 
 
Steve Brockhouse
Reply to David Amos
Most likely. But it is analysis of the secondary numbers that will tell the real story.  
 
 
David Amos
Reply to Steve Brockhouse
The only number that will interest me Is how many more bucks will Maxime harvest from his votes 


Felix Culpa  
Reply to David Amos
So far, Max has about 15% while the CPC candidate is winning in a landslide.  
 
 
David Amos
Reply to Felix Culpa 
Didn't the last PC dude to run there get around 20%?  
 
 
David Amos 
Reply to David Amos
Opps the article tell us it was 21.58 per cent  
 
 
David Amos
Reply to Steve Brockhouse 
This was interesting
"As of 12:05 a.m. ET, Khanna had 42.2 per cent of the vote compared to 36.4 per cent for Hilderley."





Marie Leblanc  
With a name like Gainey in Westmount, the only way another candidate might have a chance would be to change their name to Lafleur..  
 
 
David Amos 
Reply to Marie Leblanc 
C'est Vrai
 
 
 
 
David Amos
Hmmm


 
David Amos
 
Shut down the comment section in a hurry EH?

Liberals hold on to NDG-Westmount seat in federal byelection

Anna Gainey to fill seat left vacant by Marc Garneau's retirement

CBC News · Posted: Jun 16, 2023 7:53 PM ADT

 
 
 

Liberals hold on to NDG-Westmount seat in federal byelection

Anna Gainey to fill seat left vacant by Marc Garneau's retirement

The seat was left vacant when former Liberal cabinet minister Marc Garneau retired in March from a political career that spanned 14 years. 

Gainey spoke to her supporters Monday night during a small celebration.

"I am humbled by your confidence in me," she said. "It is an absolute privilege to serve the community and I thank you for your trust."

She also thanked the volunteers who helped her with the campaign.

"You worked so hard, giving so much time and energy over these last few weeks," she said.

Gainey served as a policy advisor to two ministers of national defence and veterans affairs, and as president of the federal Liberal party. Most recently, she has been executive chair of a think tank, Canada 2020.

Gainey has also served on the boards of several local and national volunteer organizations, including WarChild Canada, the Pointe-à-Callière Museum, and the Fondation de l'Institut de Cardiologie de Montréal.

She is also founder of the Gainey Foundation, which provides funding for environmental and arts education programs for youth, her profile says on the Liberal Party's website.

There were 10 candidates on the ballot in Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount, including Jonathan Pedneault for the Green Party, Jean-François Filion for the NDP, and Conservative Mathew Kaminski. The full list of candidates can be found here

Pedneault is a human rights activist, former journalist and deputy leader of the Green Party. Filion is a long-time English teacher and a member of the Committee of Relations with Indigenous People. Kaminski has work experience in public audit and institutional investment accounting.

A group of people stand on stage with Anna Gainey posters and signs. Anna Gainey thanks volunteers at her election night headquarters. She is projected to win the NDG-Westmount byelection. (Élyse Allard/Radio-Canada)

The polls opened at 9:30 a.m. and closed at 9:30 p.m. 

There were over 73,000 eligible voters in NDG–Westmount. By 8 a.m. Tuesday, Gainey had 50 per cent of the 21,721 votes. All 204 polls have reported.

The riding is a longtime Liberal stronghold. Before retiring, Garneau had held the seat since 2008 when the riding was known as Westmount–Ville-Marie. Its name and boundaries were changed in 2015.

Garneau won the riding with over 50 per cent of the vote in the last three general elections.

Before him, another former Liberal cabinet minister, Lucienne Robillard, represented Westmount–Ville-Marie from 1997 until she resigned her seat in 2008. 

NDG-Westmount is one of four federal ridings that byelections on Monday. The results can be found here.

CBC's Journalistic Standards and Practices|





 
 

Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount


From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount
Quebec electoral district
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount (Canadian electoral district).svg
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount in relation to other federal electoral districts in the Greater Montreal area.
Federal electoral district
LegislatureHouse of Commons
MP
 
 
 
Anna Gainey
Liberal
District created2013
First contested2015
Last contested2021
District webpageprofile, map
Demographics
Population (2016)[1]104,974
Electors (2019)76,499
Area (km²)[1]17
Pop. density (per km²)6,174.9
Census division(s)Montreal (part)
Census subdivision(s)Montreal (part), Westmount, Montréal-Ouest

Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount is a federal electoral district in Quebec. It encompasses areas formerly included in the electoral districts of Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Lachine (40%), Westmount—Ville-Marie (59%) and Outremont (1%).[2]

Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount was created by the 2012 federal electoral boundaries redistribution and was legally defined in the 2013 representation order. It came into effect upon the call of the 42nd Canadian federal election, which took place 19 October 2015.[3]

Geography

The riding includes the towns of Westmount and Montreal West as well as the neighbourhood of Notre-Dame-de-Grâce in the borough of Côte-des-Neiges–Notre-Dame-de-Grâce, and a small part of the borough of Ville-Marie surrounding Îlot-Trafalgar-Gleneagles in Montreal.

In the last few elections, the Liberals have dominated throughout the riding, winning a majority of the vote in every neighbourhood. Their strongest neighbourhoods are the Loyola section Notre-Dame-de-Grâce, Montreal West and the area around Îlot-Trafalgar-Gleneagles. The NDP is strongest in Notre-Dame-de-Grâce District, while the Tories are strongest in Westmount.

Demographics

According to the Canada 2021 Census[4]

Ethnic groups: 64.3% White, 8.5% Black, 4.8% Chinese, 4.3% Arab, 3.5% South Asian, 3.1% West Asian, 3.0% Latin American, 2.7% Filipino, 1.6% Korean, 1.2% Southeast Asian
Languages: 44.0% English, 29.0% French, 3.5% Spanish, 3.0% Arabic, 2.9% Mandarin, 2.5% Iranian Persian, 2.1% Italian, 1.7% Russian, 1.3% Korean, 1.3% Romanian, 1.1% Tagalog
Religions: 44.7% Christian (26.8% Catholic, 4.0% Christian Orthodox, 2.4% Anglican, 11.5% Other), 9.9% Jewish, 7.9% Muslim, 1.5% Hindu, 33.8% None
Median income: $40,000 (2020)
Average income: $85,200 (2020)

Members of Parliament

This riding has elected the following Members of Parliament:

Parliament Years Member Party
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount
Riding created from Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Lachine,
Outremont and Westmount—Ville-Marie
42nd  2015–2019     Marc Garneau Liberal
43rd  2019–2021
44th  2021–2023
 2023–present Anna Gainey

Election results

Graph of election results in Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount (minor parties that never got 2% of the vote or didn't run consistently are omitted)

Canadian federal by-election, June 19, 2023
Resignation of Marc Garneau
** Preliminary results — Not yet official **
Party Candidate Votes % ±%

Liberal Anna Gainey 11,034 50.80 -2.96

New Democratic Jean-François Filion 2,995 13.79 -5.41

Conservative Mathew Kaminski 2,926 13.47 -0.59

Green Jonathan Pedneault 2,898 13.34 +9.32

Bloc Québécois Laurence Massey 985 4.53 -0.74

Centrist Alex Trainman Montagano 508 2.34

People's Tiny Olinga 142 0.65 -2.63

Rhinoceros Sean Carson 97 0.45

Christian Heritage Yves Gilbert 87 0.40 +0.27

No Affiliation[a] Félix Vincent Ardea 49 0.23
Total valid votes 21,721
Total rejected ballots
Turnout
29.69 -32.96
Eligible voters 73,152

Liberal hold Swing +1.22

Ardea is a member of the Communist League, an unregistered party; "No Affiliation" is EC's term for leaving the party affiliation blank on a candidate's registration form.
 
 
 

Christina M. Smith

Mayor of Westmount
Mayor Christina M. Smith was first elected as City Councillor in 2013 and as Mayor of the City of Westmount in 2017.
Vice President of the Public Security Commission with the Agglomeration of Montreal

Christina M. Smith was elected to Westmount City Council on November 3, 2013, as the Councillor for District 5, she was also the Commissioner of Administration during that mandate. In April 2017, Christina Smith was named interim mayor by her fellow Council members when Peter Trent retired as Mayor of Westmount. On November 5, 2017, Christina Smith was elected the Mayor of the City of Westmount. During the 2017-2021 mandate, she was a member of the Finance Commission with the Agglomeration of Montreal as well as the Economic Development Commission and the Audit Committee. In November 2021 she was elected mayor of Westmount for a second term and is the vice-president of the Public Security Commission with the Agglomeration of Montreal. Mayor Smith is also a member of the executive of the Association of Suburban Municipalities.

Prior to entering municipal politics Christina was the Director of Industry and Government Affairs for Coca-Cola. Christina was also the Policy Advisor to the Federal Minister of Intergovernmental Affairs. Involved in many community organizations Christina believes in civic engagement to ensure our community is one where all residents benefit from our many programs and services.

Christina has a Bachelor of Political Science from Bishop’s University. Christina and her husband have three young children who enjoy many of Westmount’s sports programs and activities.

Antonio D’Amico

Commissioner of Finance
Member of the Finance and Administration Committee

 
 
 
 
 
 

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