Canada could help balance the scales with China as tensions rise in South China Sea, experts say
Wider conflict could slow down trillion of dollars in trade moving through disputed waterway
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has an opening during this week's summit with regional leaders in Laos to step up Canada's efforts to help Southeast Asian countries facing escalating threats from China, experts say.
Southeast Asian countries want to stop China from using its navy, Coast Guard and merchant vessels to bully them during territorial disputes, and they need stronger protection from cyber threats, said Stephen Nagy, a senior fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute and a specialist in Indo-Pacific security matters.
"None of the countries in the region want to escalate the security tensions within the region, but they do want to have the capabilities to be able to deal with these challenges bilaterally with China," Nagy said.
On Thursday, Trudeau begins two days of talks with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), a regional bloc made up of Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, Brunei, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar and Cambodia.
The ASEAN's mission is to foster economic growth and promote peace and stability. But promoting peace in the region has gotten more challenging in recent years as China's approach to foreign relations has grown more aggressive.
This week's summit is happening against a backdrop of rising tensions in the South China Sea, a vital international trade artery. China is claiming most of the busy waterway, despite overlapping claims by Brunei, the Philippines, Malaysia and Vietnam.
China's been using "hybrid tactics," Nagy said — including the deployment of coast guard and merchant vessels to pressure the Philippines or the Vietnamese to move away from territory it believes falls within its exclusive economic zone.
In
this image taken from handout video provided by the Philippine Coast
Guard, a Chinese coast guard ship collides with Philippine coast guard
vessel BRP Teresa Magbanua near the Sabina Shoal in the disputed South
China Sea on August 31, 2024. (Philippine Coast Guard/The Associated Press)
The Vietnamese foreign ministry recently accused Chinese law enforcement of attacking Vietnamese fishermen and taking away their fishing equipment.
The Philippines said in August that China's coast guard had fired water cannons on two of its vessels, damaging one.
"The South China Sea is really a cauldron of instability," Nagy said.
"What we think is this could cascade into a kinetic conflict. And what that means is a conflict between militaries within the South China Sea. "
Nagy said such a conflict would affect the roughly $5.5 trillion US in trade that goes through the South China Sea every year — trade that includes hundreds of billions of dollars in Canadian goods. He also said it would disrupt vital supply chains, such as those supplying semiconductors to Canadian industry.
Canada supplying 'dark vessel' technology
Vina Nadjibulla, vice-president of research and strategy for the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, said Canada and the U.S. are among the countries that have been calling China out over its "aggressive manoeuvres" in the South China Sea.
She said those "unprofessional" tactics — widely seen as acts of intimidation and coercion — have led to "constant near-misses" between ships.
"Essentially, [the Chinese are] trying to dissuade other economies from using ... the resources available in their own economic zone," she said.
Nadjibulla said Canada could do more to help the Philippines with its maritime domain awareness, allowing it to track where Chinese ships are operating within or close to their waters.
The federal government recently gave the Philippines access to technology that can detect vessels that have turned off their radar.
Prime
Minister Justin Trudeau, seen here attending the Francophonie Summit in
Paris on Oct. 5, 2024, could play a vital role in helping Southeast
Asian countries prevent cyber attacks from China, experts say. (Sean Kilpatrick/Canadian Press)
The Department of Fisheries and Oceans says it's giving the Philippines National Maritime Centre and other Filipino authorities access to its dark vessel detection platform, and near-real time Government of Canada and commercial satellite imagery from 2023 to 2028.
The technology is used primarily by the Canadian federal government to monitor illegal and unregulated fishing. Nadjibulla said it also could be used to keep tabs on Chinese movements throughout the South China Sea.
Canada has a chance to provide access to this technology to other ASEAN countries as well, contributing to regional stability, said Nagy.
"We need to demonstrate that we are a credible, sustainable partner within the region," Nagy said. "That means demonstrating concrete initiatives that we're willing to invest in, in terms of resources and finances."
Canada also could offer joint training or send Canadian officers to help ASEAN countries with maritime domain awareness, he said.
Securing networks from cyber attacks
Some countries in the region are also looking to Canada to help them counter cyber threats.
The Prime Minister's Office said that, at the summit, Trudeau "will emphasize Canada's role in addressing new and emerging challenges to peace and security, including cybercrime."
China has been launching online attacks on every country in the world, primarily to steal intellectual property or infect critical infrastructure with malware, said Richard Weitz, a senior fellow and director of the Center for Political-Military Analysis at the Hudson Institute.
Western countries, including Canada, have taken steps to strengthen their defences and can now share their skills with Southeast Asian countries, he said.
"ASEAN countries don't openly want to confront China, but of course want to secure their networks from China state actors or even China private actors," Weitz said.
Chinese
coast guard ships are seen to the left and right ahead of Philippines
coast guard vessel BRP Cabra during a supply mission to Sabina Shoal in
the South China Sea on August 26, 2024. (Jam Sta Rosa/AFP/Getty Images)
Maj.-Gen. Dave Yarker, head of the Canadian Armed Forces' Cyber Command, said the secret to online defence is help from allies.
"What Canada can bring is some of our expertise, some of our knowledge and some of our activity and those are things that we are doing today," Yarker said.
But experts also say Canada needs to tread carefully, to avoid baiting China into a wider conflict.
The ASEAN was established in 1967 during the height of the Vietnam War to promote regional stability and contain the influence of communism.
The bloc's biggest trading partners are China and the U.S. That places ASEAN members in a challenging position, said Julie Nguyen, chair of Canada-ASEAN initiatives at the York Centre for Asian Research.
"ASEAN countries understand that the rivalry between the U.S. and China would have to be dealt with delicately," Nguyen said.
"There needs to be a balance that ensure(s) … the peace and security in the region, and also that business security would enable the economic development in the region."
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