Double trouble in Fredericton as 2 party leaders face side-by-side races
Liberal and Green leaders are contesting neighbouring ridings, both with strong PC voting histories
New Brunswick's new election map has two major party leaders facing uncertainty in their own races to return to the legislature as MLAs.
An imaginary line that runs down Regent Street is the boundary between two Fredericton ridings where Liberal Leader Susan Holt and Green Leader David Coon are on the ballot.
Both leaders have faced the dilemma of weighing how much time to spend campaigning at home when the demands of province-wide campaigns require them to be on the road.
"It's always a bit of debate internally," said federal Green Leader Elizabeth May, who campaigned with Coon at St. Thomas University this week.
Federal
Green Leader Elizabeth May campaigned with provincial Green Leader
David Coon at St. Thomas University in Fredericton this week. (Jacques Poitras/CBC)
May said during federal elections she tries to spend at least half the campaign in her British Columbia riding.
"It's always a strategic call, a judgment call. You can get it wrong," she said.
Coon and Holt have both devoted some time to local campaigning, but not as much as non-leaders can.
At Holt's riding headquarters, a squad of volunteers, mostly women, have been working phones and mapping their door-knocking routes while she's been touring the province.
"She trusts us to be her representatives," said Jackie Durnford, Holt's campaign manager in Fredericton South-Silverwood.
The spectacle of two party leaders contesting local races side-by-side was created by the redrawn electoral map.
Provincial law requires it be updated every 10 years to ensure each of the 49 ridings are roughly equal in population.
At
Holt’s riding headquarters, volunteers like Susan Fortune have been
working phones and mapping their door-knocking routes while she’s been
touring the province. (Shane Fowler/CBC)
In Fredericton, the independent commission overseeing the process split the former Fredericton South riding that Coon had represented since 2014. He won big majorities there in 2018 and 2020.
Now that strong Green voting base is split in two — and could be diluted in the two new ridings on the new map.
Coon is running in Fredericton-Lincoln, which, based on results from 2020 polling stations, would have gone PC in that election.
On the other hand, the Green leader wasn't on the ballot in many of those polling stations, and his high profile could help him.
"I've known about at least one of the candidates for some time, and we're now in that riding, so I made up my mind pretty quickly based on the individual I wanted to vote for," said voter Brent Wilson, after a stop at a grocery store on the Lincoln Road.
Wilson wouldn't say who he was voting for but it was clear from his description that he was referring to Coon.
"It was an easy choice for me," he said.
Brent Wilson says it was an easy choice deciding who to vote for. (Shane Fowler/CBC)
Anissa Lavigne, a former teacher who now homeschools her children, wouldn't disclose who she was voting for either, but her comments sound sympathetic to the PC party's position on education and parental rights.
"I have a lot of concerns about the education system, I would say," she said. "But also just in general, values, and where people stand on moral issues."
Coon's PC opponent Daniel Chippin didn't respond to an interview request.
But PC candidate Nicolle Carlin, who is running against Holt in Fredericton South-Silverwood, said taking on a party leader is an "extra element" for a candidate.
"They have a higher profile and they're in the news a lot more," she said.
Carlin says as a former television journalist and spokesperson for Premier Blaine Higgs for six years, she hasn't been a complete unknown.
"I didn't start from scratch."
Anissa
Lavigne, a former teacher who now homeschools her children, wouldn’t
disclose who she was voting for, but her comments sounded sympathetic to
the PC party’s position on education and parental rights. (Shane Fowler/CBC)
Fredericton South-Silverwood has some of the same confounding calculations as Fredericton-Lincoln.
The PC vote there would also have been enough to win it in 2020 had the current boundaries existed
The Greens would have been a close second and the Liberals a distant third in 2020.
But that was with Coon — and without Holt — on the ballot in the parts of the riding that were in Fredericton South.
"There was a lot of loyalty to David Coon, and David Coon is not in this riding this time," Durnford said.
There are "ins and outs" to the local candidate also being a party leader, she added.
PC
candidate Nicolle Carlin, who is running against Holt in Fredericton
South-Silverwood, says taking on a party leader is an 'extra element'
for a candidate. (Jacques Poitras/CBC)
"Yes, Holt is elsewhere for a lot of the campaign, but "our local candidate has a lot of media presence," Durnford said.
"It's not like we're trying to introduce her name and people go, 'Susan Holt, I haven't heard that name before.'"
The side-by-side contests, neither a sure thing for the two leaders, make Fredericton a key battleground on Monday that could reshape the political landscape.
The future of the Greens would be very different without their highly popular leader.
If the Liberals were to win the election but Holt were to lose her seat, she'd still be sworn in as premier, but it would be a blow.
She'd probably look for a Liberal MLA to step aside soon for a byelection so she could get into the legislature.
Jackie
Durnford, Susan Holt’s campaign manager in Fredericton
South-Silverwood, says Holt trusts her team to be her representatives
while she tours the province. (Shane Fowler/CBC)
In the meantime, some voters are still sorting out in which riding they find themselves.
The Liberals are paying special attention to the Silverwood area running along the St. John River to the Fredericton city limit.
"Those are all new areas for her so we want to introduce her, so people can understand what she's about and why she's the best choice," Durnford said.
Wilson said he and some of his Lincoln-area neighbours were surprised at first to see their list of candidates, including Coon.
"It took me a while to figure that out, why I was suddenly voting for these people. It didn't click that there'd been a change," he said.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Quispamsis has 2 party leaders running against each other but we all know why nobody wants to talk about it Correct?
valmond landry
from what i gather higgs is going to get at least two votes whow!
David Amos
Reply to valmond landry
Whereas I can't vote how many will I get?
Reply to David Amos
Reply to valmond landry
Merci
Beating Holt in the riding is simply a matter of letting her talk.
valmond landry
Reply to Ronald Miller
HOLT is a very smart lady well qualified to do the job and a lot of experience compare to this my way or no way government .
Jack Bell
Reply to Ronald Miller
Give her 5 minutes and she'll call locals un-educated regressives.
Jack Bell
Reply to valmond landry
You'd think with all the experience she has, she wouldn't slap such unflattering labels on the people of Bathurst.
Ronald Miller
Reply to valmond landry
If tax, spend, and scandals is what you are looking for to do the job, she certainly is the person.
valmond landry
Reply to Ronald Miller
which scandal ?
Reply to valmond landry
Well I was going to list the property tax fiasco, but we will just call that a major screwup. That gov't was hiding millions for a certain games, read up on it if you like.
Jack Bell
Reply to valmond landry
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/susan-holt-bathurst-education-comments-1.7346310
""I'm in urban Fredericton," Holt said. "It's really progressive people here, highly educated. My riding of Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint-Isidore is a totally different makeup.""
Reply to Ronald Miller
You know, the NB government tax revenue in 2022 was $8.45 billion (StatsCan) and the provincial debt in 2022 was about $12.4 billion (PNB). You keep bragging about Higgs financial record but it is really not very considering Federal $ including pandemic contributions constituted most of the surplus he claims all the time.
Ralph Skavinsky
Reply to valmond landry
Holt sounds like the north is dog patch while Ftn is snob hill..not too bright in doing such a comparison
Content Deactivated
Reply to Jack Bell
David Amos
Reply to valmond landry
Check out June 6th IMHO Carlin deserves to defeat Holt
Jack Bell
Reply to Geordan Mann
"considering Federal $ including pandemic contributions constituted most of the surplus he claims all the time."
I'll say to you what I say to another person on here:
...and what did every other province having the exact same issues as us do with the federal funds they received instead of paying down $2.3 billion in debt?
Ronald Miller
Reply to Geordan Mann
Did you just compare yearly revenue to overall debt as a metric for a basis of financial record? You are someone who could benefit from a financial literacy course.
Jack Bell
Reply to Daniel Franklin
Painting everyone with the same brush without even knowing who they are or what they stand for.... is this the acceptance and tolerance I hear the liberals talk so much about?
Daniel Franklin
Reply to Jack Bell
Didn't I just use that verbiage in conversation with you yesterday? Or was that Mr. Miller? It's the conservatives that like to paint with broad brush strokes. Higgs is the most divisive premier we've had in my lifetime.
Graham McCormack
Reply to Ralph Skavinsky
Are you ignoring the context on purpose?
Jack Bell
Reply to Daniel Franklin
Part of the problem is the growing rift between left and right, there are very few actual centrists anymore.
"It's the conservatives that like to paint with broad brush strokes. "
I actually don't disagree with you that the Conservatives are divisive, but if you don't believe the other side isn't playing people against each other then you either refuse to see it or you do see it but don't care.
Daniel Franklin
Reply to Jack Bell
Fair.
Daniel Franklin
Reply to Jack Bell
I never thought I would give you a like but you got one there.
Geordan Mann
Reply to Ronald Miller
I did not use it as a financial driver so certainly not as metric. Obviously I used it as comparative revenue stream against a total debt. Don't try to be cute, it does not become you. The revenue is a surplus/deficit driver and you are just dodging the truth that Higgs is nowhere near the financial wizard you think he is.
Ronald Miller
Reply to Geordan Mann
He has been deemed one by multiple political analysts, business people, economists, and institutes that rank things such as fiscal management. People who know many times more than me, and much more than that about the subject than you.
Jack Bell
Reply to Daniel Franklin
I take this election very seriously Daniel, and really don't know who to vote for.
Too many people are suffering and no one party has the answers to fix all the problems were trying to deal with.
But we can't keep piling on more debt, it will eventually drown us.
Daniel Franklin
Reply to Jack Bell
I get it. I owe you an apology for presuming that you were a (t) roll. It's a complex world these days. Nobody has the answers and most of us are just trying to do our best.
Ronald Miller
If the Liberals did get in, but Holt did not, it could work for NBers if they appoint a leader who is not a Gallant clone. Someone not controlled by the Society, someone that understands fiscal management. This person would not be as good as Higgs but they could certainly help out NB by picking a better leader.
David Amos
Reply to Ronald Miller
Dream on and keep spinning
Ronald Miller
If govt's should not worry about debt since it does not give us anything, why should we bother paying our mortgages, I know after I pay mine, I don't have anything more to show for it. While I'm at it, I'll stop paying off my credit card too, I mean, what could go wrong.
Jack Bell
Reply to Ronald Miller
Why pay your bills when they'll just send you more next month.
Not paying your bills is a victimless crime, like punching someone in the dark.
Robert Brannen
Reply to Ronald Miller
For many people, if not for the majority of people, debt has given them the houses in which they live.
Ronald Miller
Reply to Robert Brannen
We all incur debt, but we do so within our means. There is a reason banks do homework on who they lend money to, because it needs to be paid back.
Ronald Miller
Reply to Robert Brannen
We can bump up our payments, we can make lump sum payments, why would people do that? It is no advantage to the bank.
Jack Bell
Reply to Robert Brannen
Not the same thing.
The equivalent would be buying a house, then every year maxing out your credit cards then paying them off by adding that debt on top of your mortgage for decades until you owe $11.6 Billion dollars on a Bungalow.
David Amos
Reply to Ronald Miller
I suspect that there are a lot of old folks like me who are not in the same boat as you. We pay property taxes, the power bill and the GST on it yet we have no mortgage or credit card nor do we pay income tax. However many vote
Peter Hill
Reply to Ronald Miller
Who has more debt than means?
Ronald Miller
Higgs, as he often is, was bang on when he said financial literacy should be mandatory in high school. One only has to spend a short time on these boards to see the repercussions of not having that skill. Many of the left think debt is not actually a real thing. Are the debt payments we make not real? When our debt goes up along with those payments, are those not real? When we currently pay more federally to service our debt than our healthcare, is that not real?
Jack Bell
Reply to Ronald Miller
Schools teach our children important things like how everyone is a winner, you don't have to try to succeed, and ignore the man in the women's bathroom.
When would they have time to teach financial literacy?
Ronald Miller
Reply to Jack Bell
Reading, writing/typing, math, and financial literacy. If you come out of school with those skills intact one will do well.
valmond landry
Reply to Ronald Miller
remember one thing debt is real however theirs is a lot of people buying things that they know they can't afford just to show off one example how much money was spent my this government just to pay lawyers in order to have things his way ?
Jack Bell
Reply to valmond landry
"how much money was spent by this government just to pay lawyers in order to have things his way"
Much less than the $2.3 billion they paid on our debt.
Ronald Miller
Reply to valmond landry
Gov't lawyers are paid a salary regardless what they are doing, including protecting the taxpayers of NB from those looking to take down our province.
valmond landry
Reply to Jack Bell
most of that from the federal.
Jack Bell
Reply to valmond landry
...and what did every other province having the same issues as us do with the funds they received instead of paying down $2.3 billion in debt?
valmond landry
Reply to Jack Bell
time for a coffee have a good day
David Amos
Reply to Ronald Miller
I had to battle Higgy et al tooth and nail to finally get a Health Care Card but what about my dispute with Higgy back in 2013 about the pension plans? If folks had listened to me then we would have been debt free over 10 years ago.
I repeated my idea during debates and on TV when I ran in 2015 and 2018 and 2019 and now I am doing so again. Correct?
David Amos
Reply to David Amos
Deja Vu Anyone???
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hZqArRNshSM&t=437s
2018 New Brunswick Provincial Election Saint John Region Candidate Messages
No comments:
Post a Comment