NDP
Leader Jagmeet Singh, right, joins candidate Daniel Thériault, centre,
and former Acadie-Bathurst MP Yvon Godin at a campaign event in Bathurst
on Monday. (Radio-Canada)
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh made his first visit to New Brunswick on Monday and apologized for not getting there sooner.
The
party is rounding out its slate of candidates in the province and Singh
was in Bathurst to introduce Daniel Thériault, a longtime activist in
Acadian organizations. Singh called him "a star candidate" for the
riding of Acadie-Bathurst.
But Singh faced questions from reporters about why he hadn't visited the province earlier in his first two years as NDP leader.
"We're
absolutely taking New Brunswick seriously," Singh said, adding it was a
mistake not to visit sooner. "I'm really sorry. I'm sorry I didn't get
here earlier. I'm happy to be here."
Asked for an explanation, he said his mother taught him to not make excuses when apologizing.
Singh's
lack of earlier visits was criticized by Green Party Leader Elizabeth
May, who made her own appearance later in the day in Fredericton. The
two parties are competing for left-of-centre votes in the Oct. 21
election.
May pointed out that it was her third trip to the province this year.
"Anyone
that thinks that they have what it takes to serve their country as
prime minister needs to know the country, needs to have gone to all
parts of the country to listen," she said.
Facing local criticism
Last
month, New Democrat Yvon Godin, the former Acadie-Bathurst MP, said he
was "not proud" of Singh's absence from the province and said it was
hurting the party's prospects.
But
Godin, who represented the riding for 18 years, was at Singh's side on
Monday and said it was "a great pleasure" to introduce him.
During the summer, Godin criticized Singh for not coming to the province during his first two years as federal NDP leader. (Radio-Canada)
Singh urged a small crowd of NDP supporters to rally behind Thériault.
"Here
in New Brunswick, with our complete team of candidates, with our star
candidate Daniel Thériault, we are confident that we can move forward,
but we need your help."
He said the NDP is the only party committed to policies on health care and employment insurance that respond to people's needs.
Provincial party problems
Singh's
visit comes during a tumultuous year for the NDP in New Brunswick. Last
week, Radio-Canada reported that the party's Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe
candidate, Luke MacLaren, had to apologize for old social-media posts
that were offensive.
The provincial party has also been in the
doldrums, winning a only five percent of the vote in last year's
election and failing for the fourth campaign in a row to elect a single
MLA.
The party also lacks a permanent leader. The only candidate
who came forward for the position earlier this year, Joyce Richardson,
was disqualified.
She
later organized an exodus of former provincial NDP candidates to the
Green Party, and her son Jonathan, another defector, suggested voters in
northern New Brunswick were reluctant to support Singh because of his
Sikh heritage.
The only bright spot for the NDP was that the
exodus was revealed to be smaller than advertised after several apparent
defectors said they were not switching to the Greens after all.
The
provincial NDP has been without a full-time leader since Jennifer
McKenzie resigned after the party's dismal performance in the 2018
provincial election. (CBC)
Singh said Monday he didn't believe Jonathan Richardson's comments about his background being a liability.
"People
in Bathurst are welcoming and open-hearted and beautiful people who
just want someone who understands them," he said. "They're people who
just want a fair deal."
Singh also pushed back at the Green
Party's apparent momentum in New Brunswick. The party captured 11.8
percent of the vote provincially last year, more than double that of the
NDP, and elected three MLAs.
Singh said the NDP has "a really
solid position" on abortion rights and national unity, "something I
can't really say for the Green Party."
He was referring to one Green Party candidate who is anti-abortion and another who declared himself a Quebec sovereigntist.
May said in Fredericton that the Greens' position is "the same solid position" as the NDP's on both issues.
"What
I find disturbing is that the NDP keeps saying there's something funny
about our position, because it's the same as their position. I'm all for
recycling … but the NDP has to stop recycling the same lies every
day."
Singh said the delay in getting NDP candidates nominated
was because of his commitment to "do things a little differently,"
including recruiting more women. But eight of the party's 10 candidates
in New Brunswick are men.
Thériault said his announcement had been put off so it would have a more dramatic effect.
"It was part of our strategy to delay the announcement. We wanted to have a good impact."
Thériault
is a former director of the Festival acadien de Caraquet and other arts
organizations and was also head of the Acadian Cultural Federation of
Nova Scotia. He is the brother of former Caraquet Liberal MLA Bernard
Thériault.
Jacques
Poitras has been CBC's provincial affairs reporter in New Brunswick
since 2000. Raised in Moncton, he also produces the CBC political
podcast Spin Reduxit.
David Raymond Amos@DavidRayAmos
Replying to @DavidRayAmos@alllibertynews and 49 others Methinks much to Madame May's chagrin Harper and Scheer know that nobody cares what Stockwell Day has to say about anything anymore Anyone can see the CBC latest poll predicts that the NDP will beat the Greens to 3rd place N'esy Pas?
If the NDP is 'toast', do the Greens have what it takes?
3939 Comments
Commenting is now closed for this story.
At 333 Comments I said the following and never returned until Sept 11th to check the political nonsense after the writ was dropped
David Amos Methinks
much to Madame May's chagrin Harper and Scheer know that nobody cares
what Stockwell Day has to say about anything anymore Anyone can see the
CBC latest poll predicts that the NDP will beat the Greens to 3rd place
N'esy Pas?
If the NDP is 'toast', do the Greens have what it takes?
The Canada Votes newsletter is your weekly tip-sheet as we count down to Oct. 21.
CBC News ·
New Democrats and Greens battle it out
Vassy Kapelos, host of Power & Politics
"The NDP," Stockwell Day told CBC's Power Panel last week, "is toast."
The
statement was somewhat surprising coming from the former Conservative
cabinet minister, who had been defending NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh's
political potential for months. Not that surprising, though, given the
number of people writing off the New Democrats these days.
Even
Charlie Angus admitted a few days ago he's been reading his party's
obituary for a long time. Angus insisted that obit isn't ready to be
printed, but his counter-argument was all about the kind of power New
Democrats could enjoy in a minority government — one led by another
party.
Singh himself all but acknowledged recently how low the
party is setting its sights in 2019 when he ripped into Conservative
Leader Andrew Scheer over his 2005 comments on same-sex marriage. He
said the NDP would not support a Conservative minority. But why would he
even talk about a minority government at this point? Singh is supposed
to be running to form a government of his own - not to prop one up (or
knock one down).
I don't like to write any party off. I remember
how many people (in the media and outside of it) used to say it would
be a cold day in hell before Justin Trudeau ever became prime minister.
(Prior to the last election, you'll remember, the Liberals were polling a
distant third.)
The campaign changed things. That's what campaigns do. I think just about anything could happen in the coming campaign as well.
But
it's pretty bleak out there for the Dippers right now: not a lot of
cash in the coffers, polling below the Greens in Quebec (the single most
important province for the party) and nowhere near a full slate of
candidates in the days before the real campaign begins.
The natural heir to whatever ground the New Democrats have lost would appear to be the Green Party. But that isn't a given.
Green Party of Canada leader Elizabeth May speaks in Toronto during a fireside chat about the climate. (THE CANADIAN PRESS)
Take a look at the events of the past week. (Stay with me — it's complicated.)
First
came an announcement that 14 New Democrats in New Brunswick, all
provincial save for one member of the federal executive, were defecting
to the Green Party because they didn't like their chances as NDP
candidates.
Then, one of the defectors told The Canadian Press he's talked to people in the province who are uncomfortable with Singh's religion.
A
day went by and the NDP started calling around newsrooms, saying not
all the people on the defectors' list are actually leaving for the
Greens. A handful came out publicly to say they're sticking with the
NDP. Singh said Green Party Leader Elizabeth May "has a lot to answer
for."
Green Party Leader Elizabeth May released a statement. "I
won't attack (Singh)," she says — after attacking him at length,
accusing him of blowing off New Brunswick and reminding him that "being a
federal party leader is hard work." All of which should tell you that
Trudeau and Scheer are quite right when they predict the coming campaign
will be "nasty."
The defectors story is complicated and weird. Does it point to organizational problems for the Greens and the NDP? Probably.
If
the Greens orchestrated this regional coup, they need to work on their
coup-making skills. Some of the people on the initial list of defectors
reportedly thought they were simply talking about a merger with the
Greens. Others said they didn't even know they'd been added to the list.
(One Green candidate in the Maritimes gulped when I called to ask about
this week's events, calling them "embarrassing.")
Reading this online? Sign-up for the newsletter to get it delivered to your inbox every Sunday – then daily during the campaign.
Greens
are accustomed to being questioned about their organizational
competence. In election after election, they're dogged by the question
of whether they can turn their popular support into actual seats. (They
also don't like it when you ask that question; May once told me she's "over it.")
David
Chernushenko is a former deputy leader of the Greens and a failed
leadership candidate. He said the party's lack of a ground game was
always a problem.
"I left the party ten years ago and my main critique was that the focus was all about the leader," he said.
"No
question, people expect that and the symbolism of that is really
important, but you have to build a party. The infrastructure has to be
there … good, plain organization is what's needed.
That
shambles in New Brunswick didn't exactly reflect well on the NDP either.
Singh's critics are right: he's never once visited New Brunswick since
becoming leader - not once during an entire (official) tour of the
country. Not one of the New Democrats I spoke to last week thinks that
was anything but a huge mistake.
There is a feeling in party
circles that Singh is starting to hit his campaign groove now, that he's
more comfortable leading the charge. Too late? "It's way, way, way too
late," one NDP MP told me recently.
In the end, if the polls are right and the NDP is toast, the Greens may not be in a position to capitalize.
Voters — especially those still undecided — care more about climate change
now than they ever did before, but that isn't just a NDP/Green battle.
The Liberals will be fighting for those votes too - and in Quebec right
now, polls show they've got a lot of them.
Vassy Kapelos is host of Power & Politics, weekdays at 5 p.m. ET on CBC News Network.
Power Lines
The Power & Politics Power Panelists on where the big parties will be focused this week
Amanda Alvaro president and co-founder of Pomp & Circumstance
The Liberals are framing their position and theme for the election
campaign in the ramp up to the writ being dropped. With the tagline,
'Choose Forward,' expect Justin Trudeau to use every opportunity to
contrast the progress that's been made for Canadians under his
leadership with the risk of slipping backward under the Conservatives.
Rachel Curran senior associate at Harper & Associates Consulting
Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer will be focused next week on
detailing his plans to help Canadians get ahead, including making
maternity benefits tax-free (worth up to $4,000) and offering a Green
Homes Tax Credit of up to $2,850 to help homeowners increase the
energy-efficiency of their homes.
Kathleen Monk principal at Earnscliffe Strategy Group
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh will kick off the party's federal election
tour in Toronto Sunday with Olivia Chow and Mike Layton. In the days
following, Singh will join candidates Andrew Cash (Davenport) and
Matthew Green (Hamilton Centre) promising, that with a strong team in
Ottawa, New Democrats will address the housing crisis in Canada after
successive Liberal and Conservative governments have failed.
Poll Tracker Takeaway
Éric Grenier's weekly look at key numbers in the political public opinion polls.
A fight for third place is not the fight the New Democrats want.
And yet, here they are.
The
defection of a group of New Brunswick New Democrats to the Greens (a
group that turned out to be not as big as originally claimed) highlights
something that's becoming increasingly obvious in the polls:
In some parts of the country, including Atlantic Canada, it's the Greens who are in third place.
But could the New Democrats end up in fourth nationwide?
At
this stage, the chances that the NDP will fall behind the Greens at the
national level look relatively slim. The Poll Tracker puts the NDP
ahead of the Greens by about three percentage points. Most pollsters put
the NDP solidly in third place and the Green Party has consistently
failed to match its polling numbers at the ballot box.
Green
Leader Elizabeth May certainly will have the opportunity to surpass the
New Democrats if the campaign takes a negative turn for Jagmeet Singh,
especially since she'll be sharing the debate stage with him. But for
now, the Greens' potential is just that: potential.
There is,
however, a decent chance that the New Democrats could find themselves
finishing in fourth place in the House of Commons - behind the Bloc
Québécois
For the Bloc this would be a revival of fortunes; it
had the third-largest Commons caucus between the 1997 and 2011 federal
elections.
The Poll Tracker puts the NDP and Bloc neck-and-neck
in projected seat counts. If the New Democrats continue to struggle in
the polls, the Bloc might be able to beat them in seats. Plucking those
vulnerable NDP seats in Quebec would help it do that.
It makes
for a challenging election campaign ahead for Singh. It's hard to
credibly run for gold when your main problem is simply making it to the
podium.
Kaya
Raby asks us via email: Looking at the seat projections, how can [the
Liberals'] percentage chances for "winning a majority" be higher than
"winning the most seats but not a majority"?
I can
see why this could be confusing. The Sept. 5 update projected 163 seats
for the Liberals, short of the 170 seats needed for a majority
government. It also projected a 38 per cent chance of a Liberal majority
vs. only a 27 per cent chance of the Liberals winning the most seats
but not a majority. How come?
Okay, strap in.
The seat projection range for the Liberals was between 104 and 218 seats,
So, the window for the Liberals to win a majority is pretty big: 170 to 218.
On the other hand, the window for them to win the most seats but NOT a majority is relatively small.
That's
because as soon as they start falling below around 150 seats, the
Conservatives are probably winning more than them. Which makes the range
where the Liberals win a plurality but not a majority around 150 to 169
seats.
Smaller window, smaller chance of it happening.
The seat range takes into account the potential for error in the seat projection model and in the polls.
Think
of it this way. If the Liberals out-perform the projection, one thing
is likely to happen: they win a majority. If they under-perform the
projection, there are two possible outcomes: ending up with the most
seats in a minority Parliament, or ending up behind the Conservatives.
— Éric Grenier CBC Polls Analyst
Have
a question about the October election? About where the federal parties
stand on a particular issue? Or about the facts of a key controversy on
the federal scene? Email us your questions and we'll answer one in the next Canada Votes newsletter.
No comments:
Post a Comment