For Trudeau and Scheer, tonight's French debate offers opportunity — and risks
3771 Comments
Peter Chinook
Content disabled Will PM Blackface put on his party face for tonight?
David Raymond Amos
Content disabled Reply to @Peter Chinook: Mais Oui
David Raymond Amos
Methinks the lawyer Maxime Bernier is going to enjoy the circus ce soir every bit as much as I will N'esy Pas?
David Raymond Amos
Reply to @David Raymond Amos: Thanks for the "Likes"
David Harrington
Just wondering if the moderator gave Butts all the questions at their recent dinner together
David Raymond Amos
Reply to @David Harrington: Me Too
David Mcnaughton
Reply to @David Harrington: Hey CBC, considering Butt's record this should be your lead story. Get it together CBC.
Brett
Blaikie Reply
to @David Harrington: clearly they don't want to hear Elizabeth May's
doomsday predictions or Maxime Bernier's ideas about marketing boards.
David Raymond Amos
Content disabled Reply
to @david mcnaughton: Methinks they don't care what you think of Mr
Butts just like I don't care awhat you think of my Chiac N'esy Pas?
David Raymond Amos
Reply to @Brett
Blaikie: Methinks it was just another circus for the benefit of Quebec's
beloved Prime Minister Trudeau The Younger N'esy Pas?
David Raymond Amos
Reply to @Brett Blaikie: "does Davie think Bernier has telekinetic powers N'estle Pas? Et du chocolat pour moi hien?"
Methinks even though one of my Yankee foes named Bernie had a heart
attack today my telekinetic powers have informed me that another will
rise in his stead north of the medicine line. Bernier's political
opponents are gonna feel the Bern in short order in TWO big debates not
long before polling day N'esy Pas?
Wallace Gouk
I
find that Mr. Trudeau used his position of authority over Ms.
Wilson-Raybould to seek to influence her decision on whether she should
overrule the Director of Public Prosecutions' decision not to invite
SNC-Lavalin to enter into negotiations towards a remediation agreement.
Because SNC‑Lavalin overwhelmingly stood to benefit from Ms.
Wilson-Raybould's intervention, I have no doubt that the result of Mr.
Trudeau's influence would have furthered SNC-Lavalin's interests. The
actions that sought to further these interests were improper since the
actions were contrary to the constitutional principles of prosecutorial
independence and the rule of law.
For these reasons, I find that Mr. Trudeau contravened section 9 of the Act.
GUILTY !
David Raymond Amos
Reply to @Wallace Gouk: Me Too
Paul Knapp
Reply
to @Wallace Gouk: Do you think that when you do business in a third
world country they do business according to the parliamentary acts of
Canada? Holy smokes, are you ever naive. You do business according to
their customs and traditions, no matter how corrupt they may appear to
be. That's how your operate doing business outside the nice safe
confines of Canada. You need to grow up and learn how the world really
operates.
Frank Goodwood
Reply to @Paul Knapp: None of which has anything to do with our judicial system.
David Raymond Amos Content disabled Reply
to @Frank Goodwood: Methinks you both should check out Federal Court
File No T-1557-15 (Which I filed when Harper was the PM) then scroll
down to statement Number 83 then rethink your comments N'esy Pas?
David Raymond Amos
Reply to @David Raymond Amos: WOW How dumb was that?
Stephen David
This debate will be funny...Scheer will mop the floor with him.
David Raymond Amos
Reply to @Stephen David: I agree but the debate will be more than merely funny.
Methinks the best part of the circus tonight will be when the French lawyer Bernier will mops the floor with Scheer N'esy Pas?
Bill
DeAngelo
Reply to @David Raymond Amos: Bernier isn't at this debate, as the article states. Neither is May. They weren't invited.
David Raymond Amos
Reply to @Bill
DeAngelo: OOPS I stand corrected I thought it was one of the big ones
that they finally invited him to and CBC was just ignoring him like they
often do just like they do me. Google Fundy Royal Debate (I am running
again much to everyone's chagrin)
Brett Blaikie
Reply to @David Raymond Amos: does Davie think Bernier has telekinetic powers N'estle Pas? Et du chocolat pour moi hien?
David Raymond Amos
Reply to @Brett Blaikie: Methinks you should have read my reply to Bill before you made another faux pas N'esy Pas?
Phillip Martin
But
we count a massive attack on Scheer by the CBC today...the PMO orders.
Anything that Scheer says is trashed by CBC so the FIX is in for Scheer
by all of CBCs top anchors.
Aint politics fair and balanced and rational? No... its a big game with the Media.
Fairness and ethics are gone. Debt and deficits no longer matter. Grade 6
kids are now experts in Climate Change. We now have a cuteness scale.
Promises mean $billions in more debt but Quebec rules as usual. Canada
today is the most DIVISIVE since CONFEDERATION courtesy of the PMO who
REALLY runs Canada. JImmy Hoffa is not dead.
David Raymond Amos
Reply to @Phillip Martin: Welcome to the Circus
Richard Dekkar
Two debates for SNC and 20% or the population.
One debate for 80% of the population.
That’s Justin in a nutshell. It’s time to elect a Prime Minister for
Canada which means ten provinces and three territories, not just for one
province.
Andrew Stat
Reply to @Richard Dekkar: Funny, The previous government did the same, but that was ok, right?
Louis Pelt
Reply to @Andrew Stat:
but... but... but Harper!
Gary Norton
Reply to @Andrew Stat: did they get elected again?
David Raymond Amos
Reply to @Louis Pelt: But But But there is self confessed Harper 2.0 too
The previous government didn't campaign heavily on changing the tone and acting differently from the previous government.
Why don't blind partisans realise that "Harper" would have done the same
thing" is not a good defense of a guy who pledged not to act like
Harper?
David Raymond Amos
Reply to @Neil Turv: Methinks you should read other people's replies sometime N'esy Pas?
David Raymond Amos Reply
to @Andrew Stat: All I hear is crickets Methinks you should have read
the comments within the link I provided by now N'esy Pas?
Jerry Kleiner Just
the fact that Trudeau picked only the debates that he might benefit
from tells you all you need to know about him. He only says what he
thinks will benefit him politically and he only does what benefits him
politically. I believed him the first time and voted for him but I will
not be fooled twice. IMHO, he is totally calculating, untruthful and
certainly non-transparent.
Also, you have to really wonder the make-up (pun intended) of a 30 year old man in the year 2001 who would wear blackface
David Raymond Amos Reply
to @jerry kleiner: Methinks there are a lot of folks in your position
but who do you vote for because in my humble opinion the other party
leaders are no better if not worse. It should be a small wonder as to
why I always run as an Independent N'esy Pas?
Jerry Kleiner Reply
to @David Raymond Amos: i understand your choice but I will vote for
Scheer. Although I am not partisan, I will only vote for a party that
will win or has the hopes of being a power broker of some kind. I feel
any other vote is a waste of an opportunity.
William Ben Justin
will do just fine he just has to defend his record, his character and
his consistent lack of judgement and broken promises, his budget, his
$98billion of vote buying spending, SNC Lavalin and VA Norman, Atwal,
Aga Kahn, blackface he will do just fine the other parties have nothing
to get him on the ropes with.
David Raymond Amos Reply to @William Ben: Methinks you jest just enough N'esy Pas?
Kevin James Trudeau
is a joke - picking and choosing debates to attend and using publicly
funded Toronto venues for person partisan gain. Supporting the liberals
is one thing, but I’ll never understand how a sane, logical person can
continue to stand behind this guy....
David Raymond Amos Reply to @kevin james: I concur
Joyce Hope Shortell Trudeau
can't run on his track record from the past four years. A dismal
failure. If he didn't have Ford to bash he'd have nothing. Canadians
deserve a leader with integrity & credibility of which Trudeau has
neither.
David Raymond Amos Reply to @Joyce Hope Shortell: Do tell us which leader with integrity & credibility.
For Trudeau and Scheer, tonight's French debate offers opportunity — and risks
Expect Trudeau to avoid Bill 21 while Scheer courts CAQ voters - and Singh works to avoid a wipeout
Chris Hall · CBC News · Posted: Oct 02, 2019 4:00 AM ET
Debates
have been a hallmark of Canadian elections since 1968, but what effect
do they actually have on voters? Strategists will tell you they’re
critical to elections and a lot of planning goes into them. Researchers,
on the other hand, say there’s evidence they can change votes, though
often they don't. 8:39
Justin Trudeau steps on stage tonight
for his first leaders' debate of the 2019 election — and a date with
voters who may end up playing an outsized role in deciding whether he
stays in power.
The debate sponsor, the French-language
television network TVA, reaches a large audience of francophones outside
Montreal. These are the voters Trudeau must recruit if the Liberals are
to increase the number of seats they hold in Quebec to offset potential
losses in other parts of the country.
"Justin Trudeau
understands very well that to get a majority, he needs to win over
francophone voters outside the cities," said Guy Lachapelle, a political
science professor at Concordia University.
"The
most recent polls show the Bloc Québécois is first among francophone
voters and that's a problem for Trudeau and the Liberals."
The
Liberals held 40 seats in Quebec when the election was called. But the
party's strength is heavily concentrated in Montreal and its suburbs.
That
helps to explain why Trudeau is taking part in two French-language
debates but only one in English, after refusing to take part in two
others.
Prime
Minister Justin Trudeau, left, shakes hand with Conservative Leader
Andrew Scheer in Saguenay, Que. last year. Tonight, the two will face
off in a debate with three other leaders in a bid to win crucial votes
in Quebec. (Jacques Boissinot/The Canadian Press)
Tonight's
debate pits Trudeau against Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer, the
NDP's Jagmeet Singh and new Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François
Blanchet. Green Leader Elizabeth May and Maxime Bernier of the People's
Party were not invited.
Language and common interests
The
Liberals are hoping Trudeau will be able to exploit an advantage he
enjoys over Scheer: the Conservative leader will be debating in his
second language.
But the decision to take part in two French
language debates also carries risks for Trudeau — risks which may become
obvious when the leaders square off, one-on-one, on immigration,
Quebec's place in Canada, the economy and the environment.
Got
questions about the election? We've got the information you need. Text
"ELECTION" to 22222 for our election toolkit. And if you've still got
questions, ask us.
"Justin Trudeau needs to
convince Quebeckers — especially unilingual francophones — that he
shares common interests with them," said Carl Vallée, a former spokesman
for Stephen Harper and a partner in the public affairs firm Hatley
Strategies in Montreal.
Vallée said that, for Trudeau,
connecting with the francophone audience means avoiding (as much as
possible) any discussion of Bill 21, the controversial provincial law
which bars Quebec public servants — including teachers and police
officers — from wearing visible symbols of their religious faith.
The
participants gather for the 2015 TVA election debate: (left to right)
Bloc Quebecois Leader Gilles Duceppe, Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau,
journalist Pierre Bruneau, Conservative Leader Stephen Harper and NDP
Leader Tom Mulcair. (Joël Lemay /The Canadian Press)
The
law, introduced by Premier Francois Legault's Coalition Avenir Quebec
government, is popular throughout the province. And it's become a major
rallying point for the Bloc's Blanchet — who, unlike the other leaders,
isn't running to be prime minister and whose party has no interest in
forming a government.
"He will talk about religious symbols as
often as he can in the debate," said Yolande James, the former Quebec
Liberal cabinet minister who is now a political commentator with
Radio-Canada.
"You can expect Blanchet to position the Bloc as the only
party that will protect Quebec's right to make these decisions. It's a
wedge issue for him."
Conservative
Party Leader Andrew Scheer toured Quebec earlier this summer, making
stops at events and agricultural fairs like this one in Saint-Hyacinthe,
east of Montreal. (Ivanoh Demers/Radio-Canada)
Lachapelle said he believes Trudeau also will be challenged to defend his record on the environment.
"He
will have to explain why he bought a pipeline for Alberta and is not
promoting a new electrical grid for Quebec's hydro," he said.
And
then there are the lingering questions about Trudeau's leadership.
James said Trudeau can expect to be targeted over his handling of the
SNC Lavalin file as part of a broader attack on his judgment.
"The
risk for him is that, in this election, he's being chased by the other
leaders," he said. "They are going to come at him from all angles, not
just on SNC Lavalin but over the number of times he's appeared in
blackface, for example."
Bloc
Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet, centre, surrounded by local
candidates Yves Destroismaisons, left, Jonathan Carreiro-Benoît, second
from right, and Joanie Riopel, right, last week. The party has been
gaining support in the polls in recent weeks. (CBC)
If the stakes are high for Trudeau, they might be even higher for Scheer and Singh.
Appeal to Quebecers
The
Conservatives hold 11 seats in and around Quebec City and up the
Saguenay Valley. The party hopes to pick up some of the ridings strung
along the north shore of the St. Lawrence River.
Scheer said he's just happy Trudeau is showing up after skipping a debate in English last month.
"It's
a big step for him," Scheer said during a campaign stop on Tuesday,
adding he intends to highlight what he called four years of Liberal
scandal and corruption.
"My message to all Quebecers, to all
Québécois, is that a Conservative government will respect the right of
provinces. We believe in respecting provincial jurisdiction and that we
are committed to addressing some specific challenges and issues in
Quebec, like the single income tax return."
Vallée said Scheer's best strategy is to reach beyond the studio.
"He
needs to speak directly to voters. Focus less on the other leaders and
more on the camera," he said. "This debate is the best way to get to
nationalist, right-of-centre voters who went massively to the CAQ in the
provincial election."
Singh
faces the bleakest prospects heading into the debate. Eight years ago,
the NDP under Jack Layton won 59 seats in the province. In the 2015
campaign, that number dropped to 16. Polls suggest the NDP is in danger
of being shut out of the province entirely on Oct. 21.
"I am
looking forward to having an opportunity to confront Mr. Trudeau because
he has broken promises," Singh told reporters in French at a campaign
stop on Tuesday.
Bloc re-emerges as a force
But the real challenge for both the Conservatives and the New Democrats is the re-emergence of the Bloc as a force in Quebec.
Newly
presented candidate Hugo Latulippe, left, and Quebec lieutenant
Alexandre Boulerice listen to NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh in Montreal last
month. (Paul Chiasson/The Canadian Press)
Lachapelle said
he believes the Conservatives will be happy to hold the seats they
already have — but even that may depend on Scheer's ability to convince
voters that he has a long-term view of Quebec's place in Canada, one
that goes beyond the traditional notion of "distinct society" to embrace
the kind of nationalist pitch being made by Legault's government.
Quebec
has always had a profound influence on federal politics. More prime
ministers have come from Quebec than any other province; both Justin
Trudeau and Pierre Trudeau launched their political careers there. And
Quebec voters exhibit an uncanny knack for identifying and riding
incoming political waves like practiced surfers — as they did with Jack
Layton's NDP in 2011.
It all suggests Trudeau and Scheer will be spending much of the remaining three weeks of the campaign in the province.
Each
will be looking to counter the growing popularity of the Bloc, trying
to present the party as a sovereigntist entity out of step with Quebec
voters who no longer see independence as their ultimate political goal.
The National's face-to-face interviews
CBC is
hosting a series of face-to-face interviews between undecided voters
and federal leaders campaigning for next month's election. How to watch:
Watch the interviews on CBC News Network starting at 8 p.m. ET
Watch on the CBC News App or CBC Gem at 8 p.m. ET
Watch on The National at 10 p.m. on CBC TV across the country.
Chris
Hall is the CBC's National Affairs Editor and host of The House on CBC
Radio, based in the Parliamentary Bureau in Ottawa. He began his
reporting career with the Ottawa Citizen, before moving to CBC Radio in
1992, where he worked as a national radio reporter in Toronto, Halifax
and St. John's. He returned to Ottawa and the Hill in 1998.
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