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David Raymond Amos‏ @DavidRayAmos
Replying to @DavidRayAmos @Kathryn98967631 and 49 others
Methinks before there is another election I should remind Gilles LePage and his latest leader Mr Vickers that I will sue the Queen in order to finally get a Health Care Card N'esy Pas?


https://davidraymondamos3.blogspot.com/2019/12/3-election-triggering-scenarios-to.html



 #nbpoli #cdnpoli



https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/election-triggers-higgs-confidence-votes-1.5398593

3 election-triggering scenarios to watch in coming months

Essential-services bill, March budget and byelections all have potential to topple government

Jacques Poitras · CBC News · Posted: Dec 17, 2019 6:00 AM AT




Looming house votes and byelections pose a threat to topple the Blaine Higgs Progressive Conservative government. But the premier says he's fine putting his job on the line to advance his agenda. (CBC)

New Brunswickers managed to avoid an early provincial election in 2019, but a date with the ballot box may become harder to avoid in 2020.

Progressive Conservative Premier Blaine Higgs took office without a majority, but with an informal, 18-month deal with the People's Alliance providing him a razor-thin margin to pass legislation and stay in power.

Now, more than a year later, there are at least three potential election triggers on the horizon in the coming months.

Higgs has routinely warned his opponents that he's perfectly happy to hit the campaign trail — and put his job on the line — if that's what it takes to advance his agenda.

"I didn't come here to stay here," he said recently.

"I came here to get a job done."

What's less clear is how badly the opposition Liberals, behind in the polls, want an election.

"Given it's only been a year since the last election, I think we have to do our best to collaborate to ensure that the government functions," Liberal Leader Kevin Vickers said in November.

Last week though, Liberal MLA Gilles LePage, the party's point man in the debate over an essential-services bill, was more bullish.

"We're always ready to go into an election," he said.

"We're always ready to defend our position and our Liberal values."

As 2019 winds down, here are the three possible scenarios that could send New Brunswickers back to the polls sooner rather than later.

First chance: this week 

Last week, Higgs said he would consider the essential-services bill a confidence vote. So a PC defeat, or even the passing of an amendment gutting key provisions, would trigger an election.

The bill lays out a new process for deciding which nursing-home workers would be deemed essential during a strike, something that must be in place by Jan. 2.


Premier Blaine Higgs says he will consider the essential-services bill a confidence vote. The bill lays out a new process for deciding which nursing-home workers would be deemed essential during a strike. (Hadeel Ibrahim/CBC)

It would also force a labour arbitrator to consider the government's "ability to pay" in awarding wage increases.

Higgs says he won't accept watering down that element, even though it goes against the position adopted by all Liberal and Green MLAs, and two Alliance MLAs, in a symbolic vote in May.

An Alliance vote against the PC bill, or for weakening the "ability to pay" provision, now seems unlikely.

Higgs said Friday his government will introduce its own amendment to make the bill easier for the Alliance to swallow.

• Higgs willing to bring on election over nursing home bill

• Higgs promises to change nursing home bill to get People's Alliance support

Austin said the PC amendment will allow an arbitrator look at "other relevant factors" as a way of balancing the "ability to pay" provision.

"Minority governments are about give-and-take," he said Friday.

"I think at the end of next week, things will work out."

That suggests the Tories are unlikely to fall this week and won't be forced into a January election.

Second chance: March budget

The next major confidence test for the government will be the provincial budget, which will be introduced on a Tuesday in March and which MLAs will vote on about 10 days later.

It will incorporate what Higgs said will be major reforms to the health-care system, including attempts to address labour shortages.

"We plan to move forward with that in the new year … commencing in the first quarter of the new year," he said last month.
 

People's Alliance Kris Austin described minority governments as about the 'give-and-take' when discussing the future of the essential-services bill. (Radio-Canada)

If that includes cuts to services, it might provoke enough voter anger for the Alliance to vote against it and bring down the government.

"It's hard to say until I really see for myself what they're planning on doing," Austin said Monday.

Third chance: byelections

Should the budget be less contentious, or should the Alliance stick with the PCs despite controversial cuts, the next potential trigger could be a pair of provincial byelections.

Higgs must set the date for a vote in the riding of St. Croix around March 10, six months after the seat became vacant.

He can wait a while longer to set the date for another byelection in Shediac Bay-Dieppe but has said he'll probably call them for the same day.

In St. Croix, the Alliance is running Rod Cumberland, a former government biologist who was fired from the Maritime College of Forest Technology earlier this year. A former colleague said he believed Cumberland was fired over his opposition to glyphosate spraying.

• Green Party, People's Alliance call for inquiry into firing of 2 forestry instructors

• In New Brunswick, opposing forestry industry practices can be dangerous for your career

"We're throwing everything we've got into that one," Austin said.

Even if Cumberland doesn't win, his high profile could split the vote with the PCs and give the Liberals a chance to win the seat.
 


Rod Cumberland, fired from the Maritime College of Forest Technology in June, is running for the People's Alliance in the St. Croix by-election. (CBC)

If that happened — and the Liberals held onto Shediac Bay-Dieppe — they'd suddenly have 22 seats, to 21 for the Tories, allowing the Liberals to team up with three Green MLAs to control the legislature.

Higgs would then face a choice between trying to govern or simply calling an election in the hope voters will endorse his decisions.

If the byelections don't change the dynamic in the house, however, the PCs should be able to carry on into the fall. The Alliance has even left the door open to extending their 18-month commitment of support.

That would take the Tories at least to next fall, when they'll mark two years in power and present a third throne speech — and when the cycle of election-trigger speculation will start again.

CBC's Journalistic Standards and Practices|

 



36 Comments  



David Raymond Amos
Methinks before there is another election I should remind Gilles LePage and his latest leader Mr Vickers that I will sue the Queen in order to finally get a Health Care Card N'esy Pas? 



David Raymond Amos
Methinks the liberals should have read my email today N'esy Pas?  



David Raymond Amos
Methinks even though I promised myself to quit running for public office after I played my part in the latest circus with Trudeau the Younger and his cohorts I must admit I could have some fun to running against Rod Cumberland in the St. Croix by-election or the Green Meanie Leader in Fat Fred City if Higgy calls for a general election N'esy Pas?


Lou Bell 

Reply to @David Raymond Amos: We need a good laugh ! When someone can't even get the 25 people who sign ones sponsorship sheet to vote for them , well there's a joke that just keeps on giving !

David Raymond Amos

Reply to @Lou Bell: Wanna bet that I can't get 25 signatures to agree that I have the right to run anywhere I wish in New Brunswick?

Justin Time 
This by-election in Saint Croix will be interesting given the current lawsuit being pursued by Mr. Cumberland. Driving through Charlotte County the opposition to glyphosate spraying is very noticeable with signs everywhere. Whether people agree with the platform of the Alliance Party or not, Mr. Cumberland may get support based solely on his stand against glyphosate and current forestry practices. Will the government try to buy off Mr. Cumberland before the election with a handsome settlement or will he stick to his principles and use this by-election as a means to advance his cause and give the government and big industry some grief at the same time.


Jason Inness 

Reply to @Justin Time: The People's Alliance has been against the use of Glysophate for a long time. At least since Alward brought in the "Irving" forestry plan. I am glad they are, because you shouldn't have to vote Green just to vote against spraying our forests with poison.

Clive Gibbons:

Reply to @Jason Inness: If glyphosate is so bad, why isn't anyone in the legislature calling for its ban when used in agriculture?

David Raymond Amos

Reply to @Justin Time: Methinks many would agree that Mr. Cumberland is all about Mr. Cumberland just like David Amos is all about David Amos However at least I am honest enough to admit it and know that I will never get elected but I can certainly throw a wrench in the PANB and Green Meanie plans like I did in the last election N'esy Pas?

Toby Tolly
jacques is so powerful
call the election jacques

David Raymond Amos

Reply to @Toby Tolly: LOL

John Pokiok 
Glyphosate spraying should be concerning factor to every nb citizen it's very concerning problem. This cancer causing poison is finding its way to our drinking water this is not a joke it's banned in Quebec and many other areas of Canada and USA.

Ralph Wighham

Reply to @John Pokiok: The forestry companies have done a great job branding Glyphosate so it sounds more "sciency". If they called it by its commercial name (RoundUp!), then ppl would be a little more leary since they know that stuff's too dangerous to put on their own lawns.

Dianne MacPherson: 

Reply to @John Pokiok:
Better inform Health Canada........
they've issued NO sanctions against its use !!!!

David Raymond Amos

Reply to @Ralph Wighham: True

Kevin Cormier
I heard Karen Ludwig is thinking of running provincially.... if so, guess we should expect more Liberals to opt out of supporting her and likely vote PC or NDP. Ludwig is spoiled goods on the liberal wagon and the only "I" and "Me" she should talk about is her time in retirement. In the Federal election, many of Williamson's votes were from disenchanted Liberals. Ludwig had it all when first elected (new face, great team) but threw it all away.


David Raymond Amos 

Reply to @Kevin Cormier: Methinks if Ludwig were run the temptation to run again may overcome me. She cannot deny the fact that she was my MP while I ran against Higgy's buddy Rob Moore in Fundy Royal and now Dominic Cardy's "Best Man" is her MP N'esy Pas?

Kevin Cormier
9 out 10 of dentist agree.... Rob Cumberland is the 10th dentist. Toothpaste is harmful.

Jason Inness

Reply to @Kevin Cormier: Yeah, that's why they got rid of both him and the manager who came out saying it was about glysophate. If this poison is so harmless, why is there a line of people with dead careers for questioning it's use?

Paul Bourgoin

Reply to @Jason Inness: Well maybe you should contact Dr. Elish Cleary and ask her why? She was not fired but only muzzled! Also why is glysophate banned in the United States and not in Canada?

David Raymond Amos  

Reply to @Paul Bourgoin: Have your ever talked to Dr. Elish Cleary? I did many years ago before she spoke of glysophate then took a golden handshake

David Raymond Amos 

Reply to @Kevin Cormier: Methinks everybody knows that Rob Cumberland is not a dentist However Higgy and his cohorts know of one very ethical dentist who has spoken against both flouride and glysophate and he ran as an Independent against the Green Meanie who is a former president of the SANB N'esy Pas?

Lou Bell
These reasons are just a drop in the bucket for the SANB Liberals. Their 110 million dollar Phonie Games giveaway has not been forgotten !


David Raymond Amos  

Reply to @Lou Bell: Methinks you should not forget the 100 million loonies Higgy's minions in NB Power want to spend on "Not So Smart" Meters N'esy Pas?

Paul Bourgoin
Who will be the the next BOSS? MOE. CURLY or LARRY. Time will tell, but the owner will remain!


David Raymond Amos   

Reply to @Paul Bourgoin: YUP

Paul Bourgoin
Rod Cumberland, fired from the Maritime College of Forest Technology in June for telling the truth! Hope you win Rod, GOOD LUCK!


David Raymond Amos  

Reply to @Paul Bourgoin: Howcome you never wished me luck?

Paul Bourgoin
New Brunswick needs a for the people Leadership!

Les Cooper

Reply to @Paul Bourgoin: that's what we have now

Dan Lee 

Reply to @Les Cooper:
Bahahaha

David Raymond Amos 
Reply to @Les Cooper: Methinks we get the governments we deserve because apathy rules the day N'esy Pas? 

Dianne MacPherson

 Politics in any Province doesn't gain a thing
when people are running only on a platform of
the latest 'fad' of the day !!!
Doomed from the start.
The voters of St. Croix will not be well represented !!!!

David Raymond Amos 

Reply to @Dianne MacPherson: Sad but true