Friday 26 May 2023

CBC News poll suggests United Conservative Party headed for victory in Alberta

 
 
 
 

CBC News poll suggests United Conservative Party headed for victory in Alberta

UCP leads province-wide, but race remains competitive in battleground Calgary, according to CBC News poll

"If you asked me four months ago how I thought this election was going to turn out, I'd say the NDP was going cruise to victory," said Calgary-based pollster Janet Brown, who conducted the random survey of 1,200 Alberta voters.

Brown thinks the ruling UCP turned things around with their big-spending campaign promises, beginning in early April.

But Calgary remains competitive — and at least one longtime political watcher says it's too early to count out the NDP. 

UCP holds big lead outside Alberta's two biggest cities

The UCP leads province-wide with 52 per cent amongst decided or leaning voters, followed by the NDP at 44 per cent. 

One in five voters surveyed in the random poll conducted between May 12 -24 are still deciding how they will vote in Alberta's general election on Monday. 

CBC News's poll also suggests the gender gap between men and women has disappeared. A survey of Alberta voters last fall found that 51 per cent of women intended to vote NDP, compared to 43 per cent of men.

Men remain more likely to vote for the UCP — but women appear evenly split between the two parties in this most recent poll. 

Using CBC News' polling results, Brown predicts the UCP is likely to capture 51 of the 87 seats in Alberta's Legislative Assembly.

In the May 2019 election, the United Conservative Party — a merger of the Wildrose Party and Progressive Conservative Association in 2017 — grabbed 55 per cent of the popular vote and 63 seats in the legislature. The NDP won 24 seats, mostly in Edmonton. 

No difference between Smith and Notley in Albertans' minds

While most Albertans seem to prefer the UCP over the NDP, voters in the Prairie province appear to have identical impressions of the two parties' leaders.

Nearly half of Albertans (47 per cent) somewhat or strongly disapprove of both the UCP's Danielle Smith and the NDP's Rachel Notley.

The two leaders vying for the province's top job each received identical 42 per cent approval ratings.

Smith's campaign attracted a lot of controversy.

Last week, the province's ethics commissioner concluded that Smith breached Alberta's conflict of interest law

The UCP leader also took heat earlier in the campaign for suggesting those who got vaccinated against COVID-19 fell for the "charms of a tyrant" the likes of Adolf Hitler.

Here's the Alberta leaders' debate in 5 minutes

Duration 4:57
Alberta UCP Leader Danielle Smith and NDP Leader Rachel Notley traded jabs over their parties' records and which leader the province could trust. Questions focused on several issues most important to Albertans: health care, affordability and the economy.

And the NDP repeatedly hammered Smith throughout the campaign for her previous support for paying out-of-pocket for doctor visits. 

Brown thinks the NDP's relentless focus on Smith's competence and trustworthiness backfired.

She thinks many Alberta voters got turned off by the negative tone of the campaign. 

"I think by focusing so much on Smith, [the NDP] gave people a reason to doubt Smith and her competence as leader, but they didn't do enough to give people an affirmative reason to vote for the NDP," said Brown. 

A woman with blonde hair and glasses is smiling in front of a TV set, which shows a map of Calgary. Janet Brown is a pollster based in Calgary. A poll conducted by Brown found that the UCP leads province-wide with 52 per cent amongst decided or leaning voters, followed by the NDP at 44 per cent. (CBC)

"The NDP had a campaign that only had one note," added Brown. "As the election campaign ground along, Albertans became more comfortable with Smith and less comfortable with Notley."

Longtime Alberta political watcher Duane Bratt echoes Brown, stressing that the NDP's attack ads likely overwhelmed voters. 

"It's been a very negative campaign," said the political scientist with Mount Royal University's economics, justice, and policy studies department.

Bratt thinks some NDP punches — including Smith's controversial Hitler and poppy comments — landed with voters.

But Bratt thinks a lot of the negative campaign became noise that voters tuned out. 

"They've thrown everything out, every video that they have.… If you throw everything at it, it seems like it's a piling on," said Bratt in an interview with CBC News. 

Poll shows battleground Calgary remains close

The horse race between the UCP and NDP remains tight in Calgary

The UCP leads amongst deciding and leaning voters with 49 per cent in Alberta's largest city. The NDP remains competitive with 46 per cent. 

Bratt thinks lingering concerns in Calgary voters' minds about the UCP leader could still help New Democrats. 

"I think they have a sliver of hope because there remain doubts about Smith," said Bratt.

Bratt wonders if these misgivings will translate into traditional conservative voters staying home. He recalls the 2012 election where public opinion polls suggested Smith — then leader of the Wildrose Party — would win but the Progressive Conservatives came from behind to win a majority.

Conservatives are a constant in Calgary.

The city has — for decades — reliably elected conservatives provincially and federally.

The economy has rebounded, but doubts persist in Calgary voters' minds about Smith, says Bratt. 

"The UCP should win and should win quite handily," he said. "The fact that they're not is because of Danielle Smith."


CBC News' random survey of 1,200 Albertans was conducted using a hybrid method between May 12 and 24 by Edmonton-based Trend Research under the direction of Janet Brown Opinion Research. The sample is representative of regional, age and gender factors. The margin of error is +/- 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. For subsets, the margin of error is larger.

The survey used a hybrid methodology that involved contacting survey respondents by telephone and giving them the option of completing the survey at that time, at another more convenient time, or receiving an email link and completing the survey online. Trend Research contacted people using a random list of numbers, consisting of both landlines and cellphone numbers. Telephone numbers were dialed up to five times at five different times of day before another telephone number was added to the sample. The response rate was 5.35 per cent. 

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Brooks DeCillia spent 20 years reporting and producing news at CBC. These days, he’s an assistant professor with Mount Royal University’s School of Communication Studies.

 
 
 
 
909 Comments
 
 
 
Jack Fish  
Poor Alberta. Not much of a choice just like it is Federally! 
 
 
alan thompson 
Reply to Jack Fish  
Worry about you and your province we will be fine i take it you do not live in AB  
 
 
Jack Fish  
Reply to alan thompson   
I don't but my son and grandkids do so I do worry!  
 
 
Roose Smith 
Reply to alan thompson  
i also have family in alberta, for freedum fighters you all sure like to tell people what to do.  
 
 
Chris Blunt 
Reply to Jack Fish
Bc ndp healthcare system on the verge of collapse . CBC article  
 
 
alan thompson 
Reply to Jack Fish 
The province is not going to implode which ever party wins  
 
 
alan thompson
Reply to Roose Smith  
I really do not care which party people vote for and were did I tell people to vote a certain way My family and many other families have relatives lying in Europe that gave there lives for our freedom and you cannot even spell it right shameful 
 
 
David Amos
Reply to alan thompson  
Ditto




Gerry Wand
Oh great! 3.5 more years of amature leadership.   
 
 
David Amos
Reply to Gerry Wand 
Par for the course  
 
 
Gerry Wand  
Reply to David Amos
We get the crappy end of the stick if UCP wins .  
 
 
David Amos
Reply to Gerry Wand  
The Fat Lady ain't sung yet With luck maybe it will be a minority government  
 
 
 
 
 
Barry Steinwand  
Just four days left to settle it one way or another. 
 
 
mia stalling 
Reply to Barry Steinwand 
If UCP gets in there goes your mountains…..coal wins and Australia digs…Yahoo 
 
 
Mario Pantolente 
Reply to mia stalling  
More NDP fear mongering 
 
 
David Perry
Reply to Mario Pantolente
Best summer ever  
 
 
Mario Pantolente 
Reply to David Perry 
Off topic…but ok 
 
 
David Amos

Reply to Mario Pantolente 
Desperate lefties post desperate things
 
 
 
 
 
Anna Bell 
Parker wins, yikes. 


David Amos
Reply to Anna Bell 
Surely you jest 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Roose Smith  
Well at least we will be entertained? sorry alberta normals and canada, was hoping we were ready to head to more calm waters.....I get it, the pandemic leftovers still lingers, ontario also has a troubling leader who has managed to set us back 25 years in under 5. it's amazing to watch but devastating at the same time if you get what i mean.  
 
 
David Amos
Reply to Roose Smith  
Say Hey to Trudeau The Younger for me will ya?  
 
danny rugg 
Sure. Pick the one with a beard. 

David Amos
Reply to danny rugg
I resemble that remark but I ain't running  
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

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