Wednesday, 24 May 2023

Ongoing Lepreau maintenance outage is 5th since 2018 to go over budget

 

Ongoing Lepreau maintenance outage is 5th since 2018 to go over budget

N.B. Power told to get more 'realistic' about its nuclear planning and budgeting

It's the fifth planned outage at the station since 2018 to hit delays and go over its budget. 

The recurring problem is one that an outside review blames largely on optimism inside N.B. Power that maintenance work at the station will go according to plan — despite years of experience showing it rarely does.

"We expect the station to reconnect to the grid later this week," wrote N.B. Power communications officer Dominique Couture in an email to CBC News about the current outage.

It began in mid-April and was originally budgeted to last 22 days with another five days of "contingency" time if unexpected issues arose during planned work. 

As of Tuesday, the plant had been down for 39 days.

"Prior to reconnecting the station to the grid, it was identified that a mechanical seal on a pump was leaking and required replacement," wrote Couture.

"The additional outage time is to ensure that we perform this task safely and with quality including required testing and adjustments to ensure the Station is safely returned to service."

The shutdown was originally budgeted to cost $23 million. Although final costs won't be known for weeks, the price tag on delays is normally high.

Previous planned outages that dragged on longer than expected in 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2022 cost N.B. Power a combined $202 million more than expected, worsening its already fragile finances.

Utility's struggles linked to Lepreau maintenance problems

A recent Price Waterhouse Coopers Canada review of N.B. Power operations found planned maintenance outages at Lepreau that went poorly have been a key contributor to the utility's financial struggles. 

It blamed much of that on rosy expectations inside N.B. Power that fixing issues at the plant will go better in the future than it has in the past.

A man in a suit and tie standing in a beige room with a TV behind him on the left. Jason Nouwens, N.B. Power’s director of regulatory and external affairs, told the utility's rate hearing last winter that 'improvements need to be made' in maintenance outages at Point Lepreau that have regularly been going over budget. (Graham Thompson/CBC News)

"Outage plans are often developed based on the ideal state," said an early draft of the Price Waterhouse report that was entered at evidence at N.B. Power's recent rate hearing.

According to the consultants, the utility needs to stop using "best case data" to develop budgets and plans for Lepreau outages and instead "include more realistic inputs and contingencies." 

Asked about the recommendation during the rate hearing, Jason Nouwens, the station's director of regulatory and external affairs said N.B. Power itself has been coming to a similar conclusion.

"We realize improvements need to be made," said Nouwens.

"Gaps in the area for improvement that have been identified aligned with ones that we had already previously identified."

Managers' projecions often overly optimistic

Michael Daniels, an assistant professor at the University of British Columbia's Sauder School of Business, said overly optimistic projections by managers involved in large projects is a common issue that has been studied extensively.

"It stems from this broader issue of what we call optimism bias," said Daniels.

A man in a grey suit and striped tie. The background behind him is blurred. Michael Daniels is an assistant professor at the University of British Columbia's Sauder School of Business. He said projects that routinely go over budget and finish late are often planned by managers suffering from 'optimism bias.' (Submitted by Michael Daniels)

He said research shows people generally "are quite overconfident in our own abilities" and tend to think about the "best-case scenarios" rather than realistic outcomes when tackling projects. 

"We will underestimate costs, underestimate the amount of time it might take, we'll underestimate the degree of risk that there is," he said.

Lepreau has suffered more than 800 lost production days in planned and unplanned outage events since an extensive refurbishment of the facility ended in 2012.  It's a cumulative amount of downtime N.B. Power originally projected would not be reached until at least 2034.

More recent estimates about the plant's future performance not been much better.

Daniels said from the outside seeing projects come in weeks late and millions overbudget on a regular basis might suggest the need for changes but that's not something always recognized by those involved.

"Our brains naturally pull from our memory examples where things went really well in the past and we tend to sort of downplay, subconsciously anyway, all the mistakes," said Daniels. 

"It's our brain telling us, hey, this has gone well in the past, and sort of forgetting about all the times it hasn't."

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Robert Jones

Reporter

Robert Jones has been a reporter and producer with CBC New Brunswick since 1990. His investigative reports on petroleum pricing in New Brunswick won several regional and national awards and led to the adoption of price regulation in 2006.

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23 Comments
 
 
David Amos
Methinks the EUB Hearing next month is gonna be quite a circus N'esy Pas?  
 
 
 
 
Thomas Georges   
Option 1)

Sell or privatize NB Power like our neighbours in Nova Scotia did.

Then we can enjoy 15% higher power rates like our neighbours in Nova Scotia do.

Option 2)

Stop the government meddling (impossible?) in the company.

End corporate (Irving!) subsidies for electricity.

 
David Amos
Reply to Thomas Georges
Survey Says?  
 
 
 
 
David Amos
Reply to Tony Hill 
Everyone  
 
 
 
 
 
Dan McIntyre 
Still better than using fossil fuels to generate electricity.
 
 
G. Timothy Walton 
Reply to Dan McIntyre 
Only if it runs long enough to be a net reduction in fossil fuels used.

Fiscally, it's been an embarrassment from day one.

 
David Amos
Reply to G. Timothy Walton 
C'est Vrai but Nuclear waste is a forever kinda thing and fossil fuels don't do nearly the damage 
 
 
 
 
 
David Stairs 
aww the albatross raises it's ugly head again....how many years more are we going to flog this aged horse...
 
 
David Amos
Reply to David Stairs  
I heard that it will be finally over on or about the 12th of Never  
 
 
 
 
Ben Haroldson
I say again, sell it , before it's too late.  
 
 
David Amos
Reply to Ben Haroldson 
Nobody wants it
 
 
 
 
 
Rosco holt   
There is something wrong with Lepreau, it shouldn't be offline this often and for this long. The refurb is a dud.

Or it could be politics, everything NB government is involve in, fails.

 
Richard LeBlanc
Reply to Rosco holt 
it's the nature of aging equipment. And nuclear power is uncompetitive at the best of times.  
 
 
Les Cooper 
Reply to Rosco holt
It is old and outdated. All maint projects end up costing more. There are always underlying issues discovered once maintenance starts. 
 
 
Dan Lee
Reply to Les Cooper
we have been hearing about issues at that plant since hatfield build it.........would you put 10000 on an old car with issues........  
 
 
David Amos
Reply to Rosco holt 
Oh So True 
 
 
 
 
 
  

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