Éric Grenier and CBC Show Their Nasty Arses to Mean Old Me and O'Leary et al

ROUND ONE

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-byelection-performance-1.4044089?__vfz=profile_comment%3D8035300008048

Byelection performance can be predictive of future results

561 Comments
Commenting is now closed for this story.


 
mike white

bye bye libs
the world has proven your mandate to be an epic fail

David Raymond Amos

@mike white I am far from a fan of any political party or Mr Grenier either. However I must give the devil his due in that does understand the polling business and I do not dispute his reasoning.

In my humble opinion its too bad for us all that journalists do not keep us well informed about the awful truth of it all. Hence we must rely on the social media and sort out the truth from fiction for ourselves, That is if we happen to care about politicking enough to even bother to vote with a conscious decision in lieu voting for the colour of the coat.

That said methinks that you dream on if you think any of the Wannabe Conservative or NDP leaders or the leaders of Green Party and the Bloc can or will say the right things in the 42nd Parliament in order to insure the removal of Mr Prime Minister Trudeau "The Younger" from the PMO of the 43rd Parliament. Its just a fancy song and dance to me in order to make us think democracy and justice are not myths. Everyone in the know knows the government is really run by the PCO in secret and all the parties are represented in that very questionable backroom in which the Chatham House Rules are strictly adhered to byway of their oath to a British Queen.

My fellow citizens do have their say on polling every four years or so. I have enough faith in them that I have no doubt whatsoever the liberals will not revel in the loss of many caucus members in the next election but I truly believe they will win another mandate.

Whether I be wrong or not, I sincerely hope the next government my fellow Canadians are subject to is a minority government with lots of Independents warming the seats House of Commons and asking serious questions to keep whatever government that thinks it can have its way with the rest of us in rather hot seats :)

 

Fenian Conn

Well, one thing is for sure. There is nothing stopping Kevin O'Leary from running for one of those vacant seats - except he lives in Boston.

Ryder Pures

@wayne guitard
Not wishing to speak for yer man Conn but Iggy crashed and burned and that seems a pretty good point to make about O'Leary.

Rick Guthrie

@David Allan
Don't worry David, O'Leary will never be elected leader. Unlike Liberals, Conservative supports are not sheep and they will elect a leader who can actually defeat Trudeau.

Michael Murphy

@Rick Guthrie "Unlike Liberals, Conservative supports are not sheep and they will elect a leader who can actually defeat Trudeau."

LOL that's a good one. Funny how all conservatives all believe the exact same things after someone like, say Donald Trump, says something like "trade deals are bad", after spending 30 years arguing the exact opposite

David Raymond Amos

@Rick Guthrie I would not bet against O'Leary or the sheople supporting him

David Raymond Amos

@Fenian Conn FYI most folks in Boston have no clue who O'Leary is nor do they care. I know I lived there for many years and my Clan still does

David Raymond Amos

@Ryder Pures FYI Iggy whom the Yankees in Boston called Canada's Prince of Darkness moved back to Beantown after he decimated the Liberal Party.

 
Rob Shea

Justin assumes that he must have these three in the bag. Justin, your stay is slowly coming to an end.

John Dirlik 

@Rob Shea

Whether implementing the Conservative-initiated Saudi military deal or siding with them against BDS (a peaceful attempt to end Israel's occupation, is this not what we always pontificate to Palestinians) I am beginning to taste the same wine in new bottles.

Still, I was impressed with Trudeau's warm eulogy for Castro, surely knowing it would provoke indignant outrage from the same crowd that uttered not a peep of protest when Harper sent effusive condolences to the far more despotic House of Saud.

Channeling his giant of a father's swagger, Trudeau gave his Lilliputian critics a richly deserved metaphorical middle finger. I could almost hear the "Just watch me."

Justin gave us a glimpse of why so many voted for him. Don't let us down.

Nahla Youssaf

@Rob Shea
I know one thing the only Liberal seat in Sask is Goodale....If there was a Byelection now it would be Conservative....He is taking alot of flack standing up to Trudeaus CO2 Tax and illegal Migrants and Soft on Crime.....I will predict that Goodale will retire before the next election as he knows he is TOAST

David Raymond Amos

@Nahla Youssaf I agree

Gordon MacFarlane

@John Dirlik

Same old same old.

Recycled spam re-posted pretty much word for fawning word time after time.

Obviously someone seems very much impressed by it!

Justin continues to give us all a clear view of why the vast majority of Canadians didn't vote for him....and keeps letting us down

jimmysinclair

@Gordon MacFarlane

John fears Israel.

David Raymond Amos

@jimmysinclair So do I

ROUND TWO

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-conservative-first-house-1.4060330

From the ironic to the banal: Conservative leadership candidates' 1st words in House

591 Comments
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Jim Graham
The gang that couldn't shoot straight ... the current leadership slate is filled mostly with Harper sycophants who no longer dare mention his name as they try unsuccessfully to run from his and their pathetic record ... CON entitlement; abuse and contempt of Parliament; divisiveness and a web of lies around their fiscal "mastery" (AKA litany of deficits).

Now I understand why CON supporters spend so much time railing against Trudeau ... they can't find a positive thing to say about their aspiring leaders ... I feel your pain, CONs.

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David Raymond Amos 

@Jim Graham It appears to me that Mr Prime Minister Trudeau "The Younger" can't keep a promise worth talking about. However his planning to create more taxes to somehow offset the so-called "Climate Change" or bringing in more foreign folks for the taxpayers to support or asking for Lyin Brian's help in dealing with Trump on the NAFTA file and appointing my old political foe Landslide Annie to oversee the legalization of Mary Jane so that many lefties can perceive sunny ways in a happy daze while CON supporters may try to ease their pain with the same dope has given Harper's loyal fan base lots to yap about N'esy Pas?

  

Rick Guthrie

Grenier must be having trouble coming up with subjects to write about.

Don Luft

@John Dirlik

Very well said and researched. But don't you think facts are wasted on the faithful?. What really rankles conservatives is not that the CBC actually is a liberal propaganda organ but rather that it's not a conservative propaganda organ.

David Raymond Amos

@Rick Guthrie I am no fan of Grenier but I disagree once again. To give the little devil his due, in my humble opinion the last words he wrote in this article were his best and the most telling of all.

"O'Leary has expressed little interest in running for a seat before the next election, and none at all if he doesn't win the leadership. So he may not speak his first words in the House of Commons for some time — if ever."

David Raymond Amos

@Don Luft Methinks CBC is the "propaganda organ" for whatever political party holds the current mandate

ROUND THREE


http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-conservative-leadership-index-apr13-1.4069668

Maxime Bernier, Kevin O'Leary retain lead in Conservative leadership race

 1744 Comments
Commenting is now closed for this story.

Alex Matheson

It must be disheartening to be a Conservative supporter these days. With Bernier and O'Leary leading the leadership race, it would be difficult for even the most staunch Con supporter to be optimistic. If the Con party wants to regain any respect at all from Canadians, they will kick O'Leary squarely to the curb. He has all of the likability qualities of Harper, which were none at all. The Cons will be sitting in opposition for a long while if either of these two win this race.

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David Raymond Amos

@Alex Matheson You should not deny that O'Leary is keeping the rest of us non Conservatives fairly well entertained as the lead clown in this little circus.

 DELETED THREADS WERE THE MOST POPOULAR

#1

 
Richard Zavitz

Doesn't really matter who wins. None of these people will be acceptable, to enough Canadians to ever have real power.
Most of them, have Stephen Harper stink on them, and one clearly isn't in it for the betterment of Canada.

David Raymond Amos

@Richard Zavitz "Betterment of Canada" are you serious it is the real power you refer to that all political animals seek. Consider that a true confession from an Independent candidate of five elections who never entertained any false hopes of ever being elected. However I must also confess that I did enjoy speaking to truth to power during the debates that I was allowed to participate in while CBC denied my existence on the ballots.

#2 

Michael MacMillan

A ultra capitalist Bostonian mouthpiece with a mean streak, who has no understanding how our government works ? Or an avowed Freeman -on -the-land Libertarian who has lost important government documents while he s out hookin up ?

The only one of the fourteen candidates thats any good is Michael Chong, at least he has a track record of having the courage of his convictions.

The fact that he is down field just shows how intellectually bankrupt the conservative movement really is.

David Raymond Amos

@Michael MacMillan For the record I do agree but trust that I proved long ago and very recently to O'leary et al that Michael Chong ain't as good as you think he is.

NOW THE MOST POPULAR

 
Dave Burk

Oleary who refuses to even run as an MP in a safe riding
has missed 3/4 of the debates
Then sells Canadian wine that uses grapes from California

David Raymond Amos

@Dave Burk Methinks O'Leary is not serious and that he is just using this circus to promote himself. For the record I thought the same of Trump and I truly think he surprised himself along with everybody else.

David Raymond Amos

@Charles Martel Yea if he truly wanted a seat why didn't O'Leary try to run in either by-election for Harper's or Kenney's old seats? I suspect that those two are among the safest ridings of all Correct?

David Raymond Amos

@Mack MacEven Do you have something against Canadian grapes?

 
Ivan Nano

If O'Leary was in the 30-35% range he might have a chance.

The forces will line up against him to back anyone else.

He will lose badly as he richly deserves.

David Raymond Amos

@Ivan Nano Trust that I will have a lot of fun with O'Leary if he does happen to win the leadership race and he already knows it.

David Raymond Amos

@Mack MacEven I said a lot more than that about Trump Google his name and mine

David Raymond Amos

@Steve Haywood (oldrusty) Methinks our homegrown Cons are far dumber. Remember how they all followed Harper? At least a lot of the Yankee GOP went against Trump.

 
Glen Parrott

I had great hopes for a PROGRESSIVE Conservative leader to emerge from the wreckage Harper left behind...but this has become a rocket sled race to the bottom!

O'Leary versus Bernier....conservatives get to chose between a mini-me version of Trump and a philosophical libertarian dedicated to the creation of a predatory, every-man-for-themselves society. What a lost opportunity for Canada and Canadians

Glen Parrott
Formerly known as The Bird

David Raymond Amos

@Glen Parrott Now a word from the cat bird seat.

Methinks any other old bird ought to know that PROGRESSIVE Conservatives went the way of the Dodo Bird when MacKay went back on his word to Orchard in 2003.

 
Dave Burk

the #1 thing that will hurt Oleary the most is he has lived in the USA for over 20 years

David Raymond Amos

@Dave Burk So did I/ So does that make me a bad guy too?

 

David Fletcher

@David Raymond Amos

It doesn't make you a bad guy. It just makes you unsuitable to run the country.

Canadians want a leader that has lived the Canadian experience. That has shared values and lives with other Canadians and that has made sure their tax burden has benefited Canada.

We don't want someone who says "we" when speaking to other Americans.

 
Joseph Cluster

The two leading candidates both have a scary history-not overly impressed.

Harold Fitzgerald

@Joseph Cluster

They are certainly scaring the leftards

Jack Christian

@Harold Fitzgerald Nope, not at all, but they do make me laugh, as do their supporters.

David Raymond Amos

@Jack Christian Amen to that

 
Neil Gregory

Does anyone else wonder what O'Leary will do when he looses his first election. Will he pull an "Iggy" and run back to the USA with his tail between his legs? Will he immediately step down like Harper and Prentis did? I really do see him having enough commitment to the Conservative Party of Canada to stay and make a long-term fight for a return to power.

David Raymond Amos

@Neil Gregory Of course O'Leary will pull an Iggy that goes without saying..After all he loves to play with machine guns just like every other Yankee patriot correct?

Jim Graham

@David Raymond Amos

Yankee? And here I thought he more closely aligned with George Lincoln Rockwell.

David Raymond Amos 

@Jim Graham FYI when I responded to you a few days ago within the article about "ironic to the banal" CBC blocked me.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-conservative-first-house-1.4060330

It was my very first comment in the aforesaid article. So rather than waste my precious time I quit and promised their bosses that I would continue with my MO and blog and Tweet about their obvious non-partisan ways. Trust that the CBC has been playing this cat and mouse game with me since 2002 for no reason any taxpayer who funds them should ever understand. Frankly I am surprised that CBC allowed most of my comments thus far today to be posted.

David Raymond Amos

@David Raymond Amos Oops I must stand corrected I checked my work and noticed that I did make two other comments in the aforementioned article that CBC did allow. However it only deepens the mystery as to why they block any at at all.

Maxime Bernier, Kevin O'Leary retain lead in Conservative leadership race

To win it all, leadership candidates might want to spend their time in some unlikely places

By Éric Grenier, CBC News Posted: Apr 14, 2017 5:00 AM ET 

Kevin O'Leary and Maxime Bernier are the two front-runners for the Conservative Party leadership. (The Canadian Press)

There are just six weeks to go — and two before voting begins — in the Conservative leadership race. Candidates are jostling for position and pushing for the smallest edge.

There is little indication that anyone is breaking out of the pack.

But this race will be won at the most granular of levels, with individual voters holding potentially outsized sway in deciding who will be the next leader of the party. Candidates would be wise to spend the little time that remains making their pitch in ridings where individual members will carry the most weight.

There has been little movement in the Conservative Leadership Index, a composite of four leadership metrics including fundraising, polls and endorsements, since the last update of March 23.

• Complete ​Conservative Leadership Index methodology
• The Pollcast: Bernier, O'Leary or someone else?

Maxime Bernier remains at the top of the pack with a score of 19.9, suggesting he would take about 19.9 per cent support on the first ballot if the vote were held today. He is followed closely by Kevin O'Leary at 17.8 points.

Andrew Scheer and Erin O'Toole are also rated in double-digits, at 13.4 and 11.2 points, respectively.
O'Toole has made the largest gain since last month, up 1.3 points in the index. He is up three points in the monthly average of polls conducted by Mainstreet Research for iPolitics, increasing his support to 10 per cent among decided respondents (Conservative donors of at least $200 who say they are eligible to vote) in the last two weeks.

He has also picked up a number of new endorsements, including from four MPs, three former MPs and four provincial legislators.

O'Leary, slipping 0.7 points, has dropped the most in the index. Though he announced a few new endorsements (one MP, one former MP, one Ontario MPP and two senators), he has slipped 1.6 points in the polls. He has scored between 24 and 25 per cent among decided respondents in Mainstreet's polling in the last two weeks. He had previously been as high as 27 per cent.

No other contestants have experienced shifts in their index score greater than 0.2 points. A full breakdown of the 14 candidates' standings in the index can be found at the bottom of this article.

Scheer, Bernier trade endorsements for poll support

After O'Toole, Scheer had the greatest movement in Mainstreet's polling, increasing his support to 14 to 15 per cent among decided respondents over the last two weeks, and 2.7 points in the index's weighted average. At the beginning of March, Scheer had been in the single-digits.

Bernier has seen a similar drop in the polls, down 2.6 points. The latest two Mainstreet surveys have had the Quebec MP at 17 or 18 per cent among decided respondents. He had recently been as high as 22 per cent.

But Bernier's losses and Scheer's gains in the polls have been counterbalanced by new (and departed) endorsements.

Since the end of March, Scheer has lost three endorsements to his rivals: one MP to O'Toole, one senator to O'Leary and one Alberta MLA to Bernier.

That MLA was one of eight new Alberta endorsements Bernier announced on Tuesday, keeping him in third place in Conservative establishment support behind Scheer and O'Toole.

Also of note was Lisa Raitt's endorsement from former Yukon premier Darrell Pasloski.

The hunt for low-hanging fruit

Yukon is one of the ridings in the country that will likely carry a disproportionate weight in the leadership vote. Each of Canada's 338 ridings will be worth 100 points regardless of the number of members it has. This means Yukon, with a population of about 36,000 carries as much weight as Edmonton–Wetaskiwin (pop. 159,000).

And a riding with a dozen or so members will be as important as one with thousands.

We don't know the riding-by-riding breakdown of the Conservative Party's membership. But based on the number of individual contributors who donated $200 or more to the party in 2016, the ridings with the largest membership rolls are likely to be found in Toronto, Calgary, Ottawa, Vancouver, Edmonton and a few rural ridings in Alberta.

The party received had at least 300 contributors from ridings in these areas.

But there were a large number of ridings that registered very few contributions to the national party's headquarters — 28 had fewer than 10 contributors in 2016.

Most of them (24) were in Quebec, primarily in and around Montreal and in northern and eastern Quebec. The remaining four were in Atlantic Canada.

Time well spent

Ridings with the fewest Conservative contributors (four or less) were Beloeil–Chambly, Bonavista–Burin–Trinity, Repentigny, Gaspésie–Les-Îles-de-la-Madeleine, Montcalm, Marc-Aurèle-Fortin and Labrador.

Together, these seven ridings will carry half the weight of Saskatchewan. These seven ridings registered 18 contributors. Saskatchewan's 14 ridings had 2,404.

Alberta's 34 ridings had 8,362 contributors. In the 34 ridings with the fewest contributors, there were a total of 226 Conservative contributors.

If those numbers are reflective of how the electoral district associations (EDAs) with the shortest and longest membership lists compare, then a voter in one of the 34 smallest EDAs could be worth more than 30 times a Conservative party member in Alberta.

And that means a Conservative leadership contestant's time spent among the members of these smaller EDAs is 30 times more valuable than a trip to the Rocky Mountains.

So Gaspé and Labrador City are lovely this time of year — if you're running to be the next leader of the Conservative Party.

The index is based on four different metrics: endorsements, fundraising, contributors and polls. In tests on 14 recent federal and provincial leadership races in which all party members could vote, the index has replicated the first ballot results with a median error of +/- 2.2 points per candidate.
A more detailed explanation of the index's methodology can be found here.

*As Kevin O'Leary entered the race after the end of the last fundraising reporting period, the index substitutes his poll support in place of his fundraising and contributors. Each candidate's average is then adjusted so that the index adds up to 100.

From the ironic to the banal: Conservative leadership candidates' 1st words in House

12 of 14 are current or former MPs, one non-member has never been mentioned

By Éric Grenier, CBC News Posted: Apr 09, 2017 5:00 AM ET 

Lisa Raitt responds to a question during question period in the House of Commons on Nov. 25, 2008, a few days after she spoke her first words in the House. (Adrian Wyld/Canadian Press)

"I am sorry, Mr. Speaker, I was seated in another place. I am Steven Blaney, the MP for Lévis–Bellechasse."

It was an inauspicious start to Blaney's career as a parliamentarian when he stood for the first time to speak in the House of Commons on Apr. 6, 2006.

The Quebec MP had taken the wrong seat and had been misidentified by the Speaker, who waited for him to take his proper place before allowing him to speak again (on defending the French language).

• The Pollcast: Bernier, O'Leary or someone else?
• What to make of membership sign-up boasts

Eleven years later, Blaney is one of 14 candidates for the leadership of the Conservative Party. Polls and other metrics suggest he is still struggling to be recognized.

But, if his first words in the House lacked a certain Churchillian flair, he is not alone.

Andrew Scheer, speaking for the first time on Oct. 7, 2004, thanked his constituents for electing him and defeating the NDP. Mentioning that he had read a book on parliamentary procedure from cover to cover and knowing that he could not draw attention to the absence of members from the House, Scheer then sarcastically did so — highlighting empty NDP seats.

Scheer was then duly reprimanded by the Speaker, whose chair he would later occupy between 2011 and 2015.

On Apr. 10, 2006, Maxime Bernier rose to answer a question in his capacity as the newly minted minister of industry.

A fierce critic of government subsidies for private business who has denounced the Liberal government's loan to Bombardier, in his first address to the House Bernier defended the Conservative government's plan to provide support for the forestry industry.

Bernier has since said that he did not personally support his government's awarding of "corporate welfare" when his party was in office.

1st statements true to form

The first statements made by other Conservative leadership candidates in the House of Commons do not seem out of character five, 10 or even 20 years later.

Erin O'Toole, who once served with the Royal Canadian Air Force, asked a question on Dec. 12, 2012 to his fellow Conservative and parliamentary secretary to the minister of veterans affairs (then Eve Adams, who would later cross the floor to sit with the Liberals) on government efforts to encourage the hiring of veterans.
O'Toole has made his military service one of the themes of his leadership campaign.

Erin O'Toole is led into the House of Commons by Stephen Harper and Jim Flaherty before the start of question period on Dec. 12, 2012. (Fred Chartrand/Canadian Press)

Kellie Leitch, who has kept strictly on message throughout the campaign, used her first statement in the House on June 7, 2011 to boast of her government's policies for seniors — using the phrase "strong, stable, national Conservative majority government" twice in her 156-word intervention.

That happened to be an oft-repeated slogan of the 2011 Conservative election campaign.

On Oct. 13, 2004, Michael Chong questioned the Liberal government on the sponsorship scandal. In his second question that day, the enthusiast for parliamentary procedure and reform quoted from Hansard, the daily transcript of goings-on in the House of Commons.

Deepak Obhrai first spoke in the House (as a member of the Reform Party) on Oct. 2, 1997. More recently, the Calgary MP has sharply criticized Leitch's proposals on screening immigrants for "Canadian values," calling the idea dangerous and divisive.

Nearly 20 years ago, Obhrai's first statement was about the importance of multiculturalism in Canada.

"The multicultural community can play a very important role in the unity of our country," Obhrai said. "Let us ensure there is no discrimination, no barriers to their advancement and that they enjoy full freedom as defined in the charter."

Thank you for electing me

Not every first statement by the current crop of Conservative leadership candidates was a memorable one.

Many MPs used their first opportunity to address the House to thank the people of their riding for electing them.

That was the case for Chris Alexander on June 6, 2011, who waxed poetic on the majesty of his riding of Ajax–Pickering, "poised between the blue water of Lake Ontario and the highlands of Durham."

Chris Alexander rises during question period in the House of Commons on June 8, 2011, a month after first being elected to the House. (Adrian Wyld/Canadian Press)

Both Brad Trost on Oct. 7, 2004 and Andrew Saxton on Dec. 2, 2008 also thanked the people of their riding, before turning to other matters.

Lisa Raitt answered a question about the forestry industry on Nov. 20, 2008 while Pierre Lemieux opened debate on the new Conservative government's throne speech on April 4, 2006.

Outsiders wanting in

Just two of the 14 candidates have never sat in the House of Commons: Rick Peterson and Kevin O'Leary.
Peterson has also never been mentioned in the House.

O'Leary's name has been uttered a few times, though only by MPs from the other parties. The first to mention him was Liberal MP Rodger Cuzner in his annual political parody of A Visit from St. Nicholas last December, on the topic of the Conservatives' search for a new leader:

"With their win down south, the far right has a theory; the heck with them all, draft Kevin O'Leary!"

O'Leary has expressed little interest in running for a seat before the next election, and none at all if he doesn't win the leadership. So he may not speak his first words in the House of Commons for some time — if ever.

Byelection performance can be predictive of future results

Byelections do matter — and they can hint at whether or not a party can win the next general vote

By Éric Grenier, CBC News Posted: Mar 29, 2017 5:00 AM ET

 

Justin Trudeau campaigns in the Apr. 3 byelection in Saint-Laurent. (CBC)

After the votes are counted in Monday's five federal byelections, only the parties that make gains will want to talk about the results.

The others will point out that byelections are local affairs that tell us nothing about broader national trends; that they don't really matter.

But that's a myth.

In fact, there is a relationship between how a party does in a byelection and how that party performs nationwide in the next general vote.

• Trudeau hits campaign trail as opponents cry foul
• 5 byelections mark 1st electoral test for Trudeau government

Byelections will be held in the ridings of Calgary Heritage, Calgary Midnapore, Markham–Thornhill, Ottawa–Vanier and Saint-Laurent. The Conservatives are the incumbents in the two Calgary ridings while the Liberals are in the other three. All are considered safe seats.

An upset in any of them is unlikely. But the results from the byelections will nevertheless provide clues as to the future prospects of each of the parties.

An analysis of 103 federal byelections held since 1978 shows that a party's change in support in a byelection is an indication of how that party will perform in the next general election, both at the provincial and national level.

Since 1978, a party that has lost (or gained) vote share in a byelection has gone on to lose (or gain) support provincewide in the next general election 65 per cent of the time.

Parties have repeated nationwide either a gain or a loss in a byelection in the subsequent general election 66 per cent of the time.

The chart below shows the relationship between the results of a byelection and a party's change in support in the next general election in the province in which the byelection was held.

In short, this means that a party that is, for example, on a negative trajectory in a byelection, will be more likely to perform worse in the subsequent general election — both in the province where the byelection took place and in the country as a whole.

Pre-2015 byelection hints

The 15 byelections that occurred between the 2011 and 2015 federal elections are a demonstration of this relationship. The Conservatives lost support in every byelection held over that time. The party then lost support in every province where the byelections had been held (with the exception of Quebec) in the 2015 federal election, as well as nationwide.

The New Democrats, another party to experience across the board decreases in support in 2015, saw their vote share drop in 13 of 15 byelections held during the last parliament. The Liberals, who made gains nationwide in 2015, increased their vote share in 13 of the 15 byelections.

Since 1978, parties that dropped vote share in byelections lost, on average, three points both at the provincial and the national levels in the subsequent general election. A party that increased support in a byelection also saw a three-point gain in provincial or national support in the next vote.

Time did not have a significant impact on the likelihood of a byelection's trend line being continued into the next general election — byelections held two years before the next general election (like the five that will be held on Monday) were just as likely to predict a party's subsequent performance nationwide.

Past performance not a guarantee

Still, a byelection is not a perfect predictor of what to expect a few years into the future. Roughly one-third of the time, a party that, for example, loses support in a byelection, subsequently makes provincial or national gains in the next national vote.

On Monday, it is possible that one or more parties will experience gains in some ridings and losses in others. In those cases it would be more instructive to look at the party's overall performance in byelections, as was the case for the NDP and Liberals between 2011 and 2015.

And it is important to note that there isn't necessarily a causal relationship between byelection and general election performance.

Nevertheless, a party is twice as likely to replicate byelection trends in the subsequent national election than to reverse them.

The notion that governments do badly in byelections is inaccurate — they retain their seats as often as the opposition. The line about byelections telling us nothing about broader trends is also incorrect.

But that won't stop the parties who take a drubbing at the polls from using that line.