I didn't bother commenting on this spit and chew between CBC/LIEbrano Pollsters because I knew CBC would block me So I saved the comments I agreed with then Tweeted the Smiling Bastards

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/grenier-poitras-nb-polls-1.4471743

High satisfaction, low approval: why 2 polling firms measure Gallant differently

Is Premier Brian Gallant on track for re-election or is he in trouble heading into a provincial election year?

By Éric Grenier, Jacques Poitras, CBC News Posted: Jan 04, 2018 6:00 AM AT

  
94 Comments
Commenting is now closed for this story.

  

James Johnstone

Thank you CBC for inserting this comic section on your website. Polling firms will get whatever answers are wanted by the people who are paying them. By the way that both the Liberals and Conservatives have, so called, governed this province a poll is not needed to see neither one is worth the time or effort.

 

John Brown

Except for the actual election, the only "polls" of any consequence are found in abundance on Montreal's Saint Catherine Street .

Vance Hall

@John Brown That's funny!!!

 

Paul Bourgoin

New Brunswick, the Canadian province with two Political Parties, one KING who rules over both parties!!

 

Tom Abbott

Lets take a Poll. I believe that polls have little if any real value. Dislike the comment you think polls have value. Like the comment if you think Polls are next to useless.

Ross Piercey

@Tom Abbott
Lucky you, last time I ran a pole like this, they deleted it.

Matt Steele
As Hillary Clinton can confirm ; polls are totally useless at predicting anything . Most folks who get an unwanted telephone call from a polling call center simply hang up because no one wants to bother with them . Gallants Liberals currently hold a very small majority ; and it is doubtful that he can hold , or make any gains on his seat count . Even some of his most senior Cabinet Ministers are jumping off the sinking Liberal ship .The only way Gallant can win is if the PCs and the Peoples Alliance split the vote just like COR did when Frank McKenna came to power .

 

Marc LeBlanc

@Matt Steele Right on the mark.
The undecideds will decide the next election

  

Edward Vella

Again, in the world of the CBC, only two parties exist.

William Roberts

@Edward Vella That is exactly the MO over decades of voter manipulation.
Make the entire conversation about the Liberals or the Progressive Conservatives with minor mention on rare occasion of some other entity
just to spice thing up. Even then we have a two MAN race. There are no other candidates. They just ride in on the coat tails of the Party leader. There are no accidents in politics. It is all based on perceptions. Nothing is real anymore.

 
Mack Leigh

Correct me if I am wrong but were the latest polls by CRA not paid for by the Liberals ?? Is the CRA as a whole not a staunch Liberal supporter ?? From my perspective Gallant and his band of cohorts have wrecked havoc , caused further division and done more damage to the province than any other government in the last 40 years..... Gallant get re-elected ?? Sure hope not !!! Time for real change , no more Liberal or Conservatives... Time to elect a new party !!!!!

  

Bob Besner

Interesting, no mention of the use of MQL Research in the article. MQL is the research firm who published the liberal lead prior to the 2014 election. MQL is also part of m5, the same agency who ran NB Liberal Campaign, was awarded $16M Tourism Contract, in addition to over $3M of other gov't contracts since Gallant team took power. Will be interesting to see if MQL is brought in to mislead NB voters again in 2018....

 

Mario Doucet

The French will always vote liberal because the liberals support the language law crusade.

Rosco holt

@Mario Doucet
BS...

Dan Lee

@Mario Doucet
A man or something without enough marbles to write his own English name........your roost must be so proud

Alf. Mielke

@Mario Doucet
And many more things that only Quebec enjoys.

William Roberts

@Mario Doucet But then again so does the PC government. Example:the last 70 years

 

Emilen Forest

No, New Brunswickers are not tired of change. New Brunswickers are tired of deceit and lies. New Brunswickers want honest individuals that can lead us out of this mess. New Brunswickers want leaders who are in it for New Brunswickers and not for themselves or their family and friends. There will be a change come September 2018 and this will not include Liberals nor Conservatives.

William Roberts

@Emilen Forest I support your dream of something different albeit delusional. After 7 decades of hope that dream is dead. It will be as it has been. Control by corporate interests. If there was a time for change it has long past as they no longer hide the abuse here. Everyone knows the game now. Those who speak out not are fired without cause and gagged.
Private contracts that we ,the people, are not privy to.

William Roberts
@Lil White The lesser of two evils. And that is what we have become. This is hardly a democracy when you are forced to make the choice. The Money and the MSM create that alternative and we like sheep just go where we are lead or pushed. In a fair and unbiased system anyone could run and have expectations of winning, but when the out come is this predictable there is no chance for democracy to survive. Voters are treated like sheep because that is the way they best respond. Promises and past performances mean zilch.


 
Ed Jackson

Polling companies are paid by clients who are seeking certain outcomes, there are several polling companies to choose from, like any competitive business polling companies that satisfy their client will likely keep the contract. So slightly skewed questions, friendly call lists etc... all come into play. Hence polls are becoming less accurate and far more skewed from company to company.

  

Marty Lee

Eric, tell us please, what do you see in your crystal ball regarding the outcome of this NB election?

No... let me guess; I bet that you see the same murky, cloudy, on-again/off-again, bag of mixed messages that you obviously encounter in all of your silly prognostications.

No matter, just do what you should always do, just flip a coin.

That way, your chances are 50/50, which are much better odds than using your own flawed judgment.

 

Michael durant

These CRA polls blow wind. Case in point, The Tories took the province in 2010 with a landslide. CRA polling at the time claimed a very tight race. In reality there was nothing tight about it. Maybe CRA needs stay on the moon and maybe even this entity needs to be outlawed in elections.

High satisfaction, low approval: why 2 polling firms measure Gallant differently

Is Premier Brian Gallant on track for re-election or is he in trouble heading into a provincial election year?

By Éric Grenier, Jacques Poitras, CBC News Posted: Jan 04, 2018 6:00 AM AT

 

New Brunswick Premier Brian Gallant is the second-least popular premier in the country, according to the Angus Reid Institute. (Ben Silcox/CBC) 

The next election in New Brunswick is less than nine months away and polls suggest Premier Brian Gallant is poised to secure re-election. They also suggest that he is one of the least popular premiers in Canada.

What should voters make of these seemingly contradictory polls?

The most recent survey by Corporate Research Associates, conducted throughout the month of November, put the Liberals at 47 per cent support among decided voters — a full 19 percentage points ahead of the Progressive Conservatives.

The poll also suggested that 49 per cent of New Brunswickers were satisfied with the government's performance, compared with 39 per cent who said they were dissatisfied.


But another survey, by the Angus Reid Institute and conducted in early December, found Gallant's approval rating at just 24 per cent. That made him the second-least popular premier in the country, after Ontario's beleaguered Kathleen Wynne.

This is not the first time that CRA and Angus Reid have been at odds.

Since coming to power in 2014, Gallant has averaged an approval rating of just 31 per cent in Angus Reid polling, while satisfaction with his government has averaged 49 per cent in CRA surveys. The Liberals have comfortably led in every CRA poll since the last election, whereas Angus Reid has painted the picture of an unpopular premier.

Gallant fares much better in Corporate Research Associates polling, which gives him a healthy lead over PC Leader Blaine Higgs, although the premier is less popular than the Liberal Party. (CBC)

A New Brunswick Liberal spokesperson, Marc Poirier, defended CRA's methods, calling the company "the gold standard in public opinion polling in the Maritimes."

While CRA uses random phone numbers, Angus Reid relies on an online panel survey "which is not a scientifically representative opinion poll."

The polling industry is changing as more Canadians transition from landline to mobile telephones.
Polling that includes mobile telephones, as CRA polling does, has the advantage of assembling a random sample — everyone with a phone has a chance of taking part in the poll — but plunging response rates have raised some concerns about the representativeness of that sample.

Online method successful elsewhere

Some pollsters have moved online as a result, where respondents are drawn from pre-existing panels.

Though there is little history of online polling being used in elections in Atlantic Canada, online pollsters have had some success in other provincial and federal elections.

Still, it can be more challenging to recruit a representative panel in smaller markets — like New Brunswick.

CRA chair and CEO Don Mills says respondents on online panels choose to participate, and because they "self-select," they can't be considered a statistically reliable sample of the electorate.

"All methodologies can have limits and gaps, including telephone polls due to the high refusal rates," says Shachi Kurl, executive director of the Angus Reid Institute.

"Ultimately, you have to look at polling versus results, and we've been able to accurately reflect election outcomes more than 95 per cent of the time. We have a very solid track record."

PCs questioned polls in 2014

This isn't the first time political polls in New Brunswick have been questioned.

Midway through the 2014 New Brunswick campaign, CRA was attacked by then-PC leader and incumbent premier David Alward, who said the company had "been great over the years at playing games" to help the Liberals.

Mills demanded an apology and threatened a lawsuit, though he says now that he decided against going to court because the comments were made in the heat of a campaign.

Alward said at the time that CRA had said in the closing days of the 2010 campaign that the race was close or that the PCs were behind, even though they went on to win 42 of 55 seats.

In fact, a poll CRA released six days before the 2010 vote had the Tories 10 points ahead of the Liberals. The numbers were within the margin of error of the actual popular vote on election day.

It's all in the question

But perhaps these apparently contradictory polls are instead showing how different questions can produce different results.

"You have to be very careful when analyzing approval rating numbers and not conflate them with voting intentions," said Kurl. "We have seen plenty of premiers with low approval ratings who have won majority governments."

Mills pointed out that his company's question, which it has used for more than a quarter-century, "is not just about the premier. It's 'satisfaction with the Liberal government led by Premier Gallant.' It's a more all-encompassing evaluation. It's not just the premier but it's the government overall."

The Angus Reid Institute explicitly asks respondents to give their opinion of the premier himself. That is different than asking about satisfaction with the government — one can be satisfied with the performance of the Liberal government while disapproving of Gallant.

Mills said his company has detected this disconnect in polling in Newfoundland and Labrador, where the Liberal government of Dwight Ball introduced a budget of tax increases and spending cuts in 2016.

"The government has extremely high levels of dissatisfaction," Mills said, "yet when we ask which party they would vote for, it turns out the Liberals lead. So they don't like what's happened, but they look around, and of the choices available, they still would prefer the current government that gave them the harsh budget."

Corporate Research polling on whom New Brunswickers would prefer as premier — focusing on individual leaders — might be more comparable. Trend lines in government satisfaction and decided voting intentions track closely. But CRA's  preferred premier polling follows relatively closely with Angus Reid's approval ratings for Gallant.

Since the last election, Gallant has averaged 35 per cent as New Brunswickers' preferred choice for premier with CRA, only marginally better than his average approval rating from Angus Reid.

Mills said even in the preferred premier question, Gallant could fare better than with Angus Reid because CRA asks respondents to assess all party leaders at once. That means respondents are comparing him to alternatives that they may find even less appealing, rather than Gallant alone.

"Voters may not be thrilled with their premier," Kurl said, "but that does not necessarily mean they'll vote for another party."

New Brunswickers tired of change?

So what appears to be a contradiction might instead by an indication that while Gallant's personal popularity could be relatively low, New Brunswickers are still largely satisfied with the government and willing to support it for re-election, rather than opting for one of the opposition parties.

Nova Scotia Premier Stephen McNeil was able to secure re-election in last year's provincial election despite low approval ratings (according to Angus Reid) and preferred premier scores (according to CRA).

Nevertheless, the disparity could suggest that Gallant's support is wide but not deep, a potential vulnerability for PC Leader Blaine Higgs to exploit.

But for New Brunswickers to force a change of government for the fourth consecutive election, the polls might indicate change-for-change's sake won't be enough — they have to prefer the alternative.