On same day that CBC is reporting that Mean Little Mikey Allen finally got caught they want to continue forget that Fundy Royal exists

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-riding-partisan-lean-1.4762557

Which way does your riding lean? Mapping Canada's most partisan places

From one election to the next, ridings can be very consistent in how they lean toward one party or another

Éric Grenier · CBC News · Posted: Jul 27, 2018 4:00 AM ET

2703 Comments

 
"POOF"
Mario Doucet

Trudeau has lost control, now he wants to shut down parliament until the liberals figure out what's happening. This government has to go and Trudeau should resign.

David Amos

@Mario Doucet "now he wants to shut down parliament"

Methinks many folks would like to know the source of that information N'esy Pas?

Mario Doucet

@David Amos
Globe and Mail

David Amos 

@Mario Doucet I have not found it yet but I did come across this info that I did not notice reported by CBC

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-after-tape-leaked-trudeau-dismisses-harpers-claim-that-liberals-do/

After tape leaked, Trudeau dismisses Harper’s claim that Liberals do not want a NAFTA deal
Laura Stone Parliamentary reporter Published July 20, 2018

"Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has dismissed Stephen Harper’s claim that the Liberal government doesn’t want a NAFTA deal and is trying to score political points at home against unpopular U.S. President Donald Trump.

A leaked audio tape reveals that Mr. Harper told a business audience in Montreal that neither Canada nor the United States wants a renegotiated North American free-trade agreement, and that Mr. Trudeau’s government believes it is “winning” in a fight with Mr. Trump. The tape was first reported by CTV News and later obtained by The Globe and Mail."




 
David Amos

Methinks CBC's pollster should check his work because if I noticed he missed something it follows that others did too N'esy Pas?

"Fundy Royal voters have elected Conservatives all but 1 time in 28 elections over 101 years"

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/fundy-royal-riding-profile-1.3274276

Ryder Pures

@David Amos
What language is this N'esy Pas? you keep adding to your posts?

David Amos

@Ryder Pures Chiac

Marc Martin

@Ryder Pures

he has no idea what's he's talking about he means * n'est-ce pas * sound like *ness pa * in English not N'esy Pas.

Vernon McPhee

@Marc Martin Chiac is an Acadian dialect that is predominately French with some English additions regarded by other Francophones pretty much like the rest of the English speaking world regards southern US redneck dialect so I've heard.

David Amos

@Marc Martin Methinks you should come on down to the Bay of Fundy and try to debate me in the Chiac lingo in front of a crowd of Proud Maritimers We can all use a good laugh N'esy Pas?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-cFOKT6TlSE

David Amos

@Vernon McPhee YUP Crackers and I get on like house on fire. Everybody knows that I was born and raised on the Bay of Fundy and lost a younger brother to its tides. My Acadian friends get my jokes and well understand why I love chasing their ladies.

Methinks every time snobby Anglophones correct me within CBC all the ghosts of my Scottish forefathers and a few Maritimers get a great laugh N'esy Pas?

 

Dwight Williams

Not surprising a all.

The CPC is a one-note party wholly owned by the fossil fuel industry in this country. Naturally the region most dependent on fossil fuel revenues will be the strongest centres of conservative power. People don't really vote for parties based on whether their polices make any sense or not, people vote for parties based on self-interest.

Well, one group in particular.

David Amos

@Dwight Williams Methinks you are a liberal N'esy Pas?

Dwight Williams

@David Amos

Thankfully, I've never been stupid enough to join a team.

Think of me as an ABC voter. Mostly because I work in science, and the conservative movement on this continent has declared me an enemy.

  

Heath Tierney

If the Federal Libs force a carbon tax/cap-and-trade scheme on Ontarians despite the fact that, like him or not, Doug Ford ran a campaign against it and won, then the Libs are going to get obliterated in Ontario come 2019.

Combine that with the fact that streams of illegal border crossers are being bused to Toronto and that's just another arrow in the quiver.

Ben Livingstone

@Heath Tierney
lol @ "streams of illegal border crossers"
Ok Mr Trump

Heath Tierney

@Ben Livingstone

What would you call people who cross the border illegally. Ben?

Dwight Williams

@Heath Tierney

That wasn't his point. You must be a conservative.

Heath Tierney

@Dwight Williams

Actually, no, I'm not. Not a member of any party. Have voted Lib, Con, NDP and Libertarian in my 59 years.

David Amos

@Dwight Williams I am far from a conservative but methinks 30,000 is quite a big number of illegal border crossers N'esy Pas?

Dwight Williams

@David Amos

Germany took in one million in a year. THAT is a stream of illegal border crossers.

Dwight Williams

@Heath Tierney

Sorry, but you do neocon hysteria quite well.

David Amos

@Dwight Williams Methinks you should understand that this article about CANADIAN politics and where the parisan stronghold are. I suspect that you are aware none of our ridings are in Germany. As you well know I ran against your beloved Liberals and the Conservative and NDP cohorts 5 times thus far N'esy Pas?

Heath Tierney

@Dwight Williams

I'll ignore the insult because it's irrelevant.

Fact is, like it or not, the Federal Libs are mismanaging both the climate change and the "irregular" border crosser files. If they don't reel it in, they're going to get pounded come 2019. That's the point.

David Amos

@Heath Tierney Methinks the liberals need less abrasive and far more clever spin doctors N'esy Pas?

Dwight Williams

@David Amos

You have fun weltering in your partisan stew and looking for enemies to hate. I'm not playing in your sandbox.

Heath Tierney

@David Amos

All parties have a lot to answer for. Foolishness isn't restricted to only one party.

Steven Scott

@Heath Tierney
Some might be Ben's and some might be Betty's ......

Dwight Williams

@Heath Tierney

From what I have read, I don't think they are mismanaging that Trump-created mess, I think they are dealing with it as best as they can, and I doubt any other groups of politicians would do it better.

You've been propagandized, I think.

David Amos

@Dwight Williams "You've been propagandized, I think."

Methinks that you should judge not lest ye be judged and chucked out of everybody's sandbox N'esy Pas?

David Amos

@Heath Tierney "Foolishness isn't restricted to only one party."

Nor is public corruption

Heath Tierney

@Dwight Williams

No argument about the trump-created mess. The failure-in-chief, president bone-spurs, is foundational to the border problem. The quicker he's gone, the better off everyone will be.

All that said, JT's tweet about welcoming the world (I don't have the text of the tweet at hand at the moment) clearly wasn't well thought out, and has also been a primary cause of the problem.

I get what he was trying to do but the law of unintended consequences has taken root. He and his advisors clearly didn't think this through.

Would Scheer do any better? Can't say. Any conclusion about what he would or would not do is sheer speculation.

Dwight Williams

@Heath Tierney

The primary cause of the problem was a man running for office on a campaign of mass deportations who won the election, followed by a Congressional and Senate putting for bills for debate to do exactly that.

And you think a tweet did this?

WOW

if you were an asylum seeker in an country which started talking about deporting you and you wanted to find safe haven, which border would YOU try to cross, a 4000 km undefended one to Canada or a heavily militarized one to Mexico?

Come on Heath. Get real.

David Amos

@Dwight Williams "And you think a tweet did this? "

YUP

Methinks everybody else who hasn't drank the liberal Kool Aid does too N'esy Pas?

David Amos

@Heath Tierney "No argument about the trump-created mess."

Methinks you may enjoy Googling the following words N'esy Pas?

Trump Cohen Amos FATCA NAFTA TPP

Andy Davis

@David Amos it’s « n’est pas »and not « n’esy pas » You’ll look brighter that way.

Eddie Brock

@Heath Tierney "Mass human migration is going to be the major challenge of the next hundred years or so. How we deal with it, as citizens of both independent countries and citizens of the world, will be key."

We should drop the Liberal mantra that Canada is open to all comers. We will have to be very selective about who we let in, and we, as citizens, will have to be vigilant in holding our politicians accountable for the numbers they let in.

When much of the world starts looking for a new place to live, we're going to have to staunchly defend our quality of life and our country from the masses.

David Amos

@Andy Davis Methinks you should come on down to the Bay of Fundy and try to teach us Chiac to our faces. Then we shall see just exactly how bright you are N'esy Pas?

David Amos

@Eddie Brock I concur

  
Dwight Williams

Since I can't have my ideal government, which is:

30% REAL independent
20% each for LPC, CPC and NDP
8% Green
2% anybody else that can front a NATIONAL party (sorry BQ)

Then I'll take a Liberal minority with NDP support, which is the only way I'll get real electoral reform, and real electoral reform is the first step we must take if we don't want our democracy to fade away like it did in the USA.

I take the long view in all things, and the rest of you can have your petty bickering.

Dwight Williams

@Dwight Williams

The other things we need desperately are:

A PM elected independent of a party.
No more votes of non-confidence.
No party whips.
All votes in the house and senate free votes.

Just like all the other civilized countries in the world except our backward neighbour to the south.

David Amos

@Dwight Williams Yea Right

Richard Nichols

@Dwight Williams

My dream government would be 100% independent, Dwight.

But honestly, I haven't enough faith in humankind to get us there. In the first clash a cabal will form of somewhat like-minded people and poof, it's all gone.

Dwight Williams

@Richard Nichols

Theoretically I agree, but the reality is that we aren't getting rid of the traditional parties any time soon.

David Amos

@Richard Nichols "My dream government would be 100% independent, Dwight. "

Me Too and backed that reasoning up by running as a Independent five times thus far while the political spin doctors make fun of me and CBC ignores me. Check this out the comment section in this article.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/fundy-royal-riding-profile-1.3274276

Mike Murphy

Sorry, those polls are way off. Trudeau has been consistently slipping in the polls for the last year, particularly so since the Mr. Dressup national embarrassment in India. All signs point to a minority government in 2019, either way Trudeau is gone. Either the Conservatives win or the Liberals eke out a minority in which case he would be forced to step down by the party brass. You can't go from a majority to a minority and stay on as PM. This is a one and done PM.

Ryder Pures

@Mike Murphy
This story isn't about polls. Which polls are you referring to?

Mike Murphy

@Ryder Pures

I mean the numbers obviously. No real surprise though if he is still polling high in atlantic Canada. The habitual EI and welfare abusers that Trudeau loves to support to secure their votes will be out in force
.

Jeremy Ashton

@Mike Murphy I sincerely hope not. After the puppet-years under harper, our country is not a complete push-over and laughing stock of the planet anymore.

Martin Mueller

@Jeremy Ashton ...it was a laughing stock, to left leaning people, but thats about it. The left prefer bankruptcy, it seems to make them feel proud.

Henry watkins

@Jeremy Ashton No, now it's our leader that is the laughing stock of the planet

Randolph Neville

@Mike Murphy ...Gee Mike, how long has this built up hatred for Atlantic Canada been going on. The good news is the first step to recovery is admitting a bigotry problem and moving from there.

Randolph Neville

@Martin Mueller ...BTW, guess who were the two Canadian PMs who increased our national debt the most? Mulroney and Harper. Fact checked and true...That's why it is ABC in this next election.

Shirley Witt

@Jeremy Ashton
Who is holding the strings for JT, Butts, Soros, Macron, Merkel, Khan, the UN!

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David Amos

@Mike Murphy "The habitual EI and welfare abusers that Trudeau loves to support to secure their votes will be out in force."

Oh My My Methinks you are definitely not the Murphy I thought you were N'esy Pas?

David Amos

@Jeremy Ashton Methinks after Harper lost every seat in the Maritimes in the last election his fans such as Murphy would realize that we are not defeatists but they certainly were defeated N'esy Pas?

David Amos

@Randolph Neville "Gee Mike, how long has this built up hatred for Atlantic Canada been going on."

Methinks it may be in his genes N'esy Pas?

Eddie Brock @David Amos maybe not defeatists, but definitely a region massively dependent on a variety of welfare programs. For example, the east coast as a region draws a grossly disproportionate amount of EI each year.

EI.. employment insurance. If it was insurance those who make frequent claims would see their premiums increase until they're simply denied coverage. But as it is now, very many folks on the east coast collect EI every single year and never pay in an amount that could even approximate what..

David Amos

@Eddie Brock Methinks you sound like many bureaucrats I argue on a daily basis. You should becareful to whom you address your opinions. For the record I have NEVER collected EI but as a a business owner I have contributed more than my fair share for myself and my employees so you people could collect EI while I could not because I was self employed. I closed my business in the eighties without going bankrupt and eventually settled in the USA got married and had kids. Years later when I tried to collect MY Old age entitlements Canada denied me because the CRA had deleted my SIN. I had to threaten to sue the Crown just before i turned 65 so I could get the first dime of my old age pension which all other Canadians get whether or not they worked a day in their lives. Go figure why your snobby bureaucratic type comment against my friends and neighbours aggravated me Hell you sounded just like Ralph Klein did years ago N'esy Pas?

 
John Nelson

I live in Ottawa South. It's a Liberal riding whether provincial or federal. You could run your dog and it would win, as long it was a Liberal. Kind of sickening, actually.

David Amos

@John Nelson Methinks an NDP dude whupped the Liberal Attorney General in your area in the last provincial election N'esy Pas?

Sam Philip

CBC, you really work for Trudeau, don't you?

Stan Nova

@Sam Philip

Which part of explaining some strong holds for EACH party is got you confused? Its interesting read no matter what party you for.

David Amos

@Sam Philip Methinks everybody knows that N'esy Pas?

Phil Simpson

@Sam Philip - Dear Sam, you really work against Trudeau, don't you?
You seem to be a firm objector to a party, faction, cause, or person.
Especially when exhibiting blind, prejudiced, and unreasoning opinions.

Michael Athol

@Sam Philip They work and have worked for each Left Wing Prime Minister and Premier. When Harper put the CBC Board in place during his time in office he still had no control over moderation.

David Amos

@Stan Nova Methinks that the fact that the all knowing CBC pollster pointed to Tobique- Mactaquac (It was gone to the liberals many times) as the only Conservative leaning riding in New Brunswick while ignoring Fundy Royal should have made many Maritimers shake their head at the accuracy of this article N'esy Pas?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/fundy-royal-riding-profile-1.3274276

"Fundy Royal voters have elected Conservatives all but 1 time in 28 elections over 101 years"

David Amos

@Phil Simpson Methinks you should not judge lest ye be judged N'esy Pas?

David Amos

@Michael Athol Nope Harper had CBC block me since 2006 just like the liberals did before him. Methinks everyone knew that Trudeau the Younger knew that before October 19th, 2015. In fact I made certain that he did byway of my lawsuit against the Crown filed in September of 2015 Trudeau's email account even thanked me for the notice of it. N'esy Pas?

Mike Unsern

@David Amos
Grenier is just basing this on a snapshot of the last election. It's making the assumption that the most recent election is a fairly typical one. I'm not sure that's an assumption that can really be made, but the alternative would have been to look at multiple elections over the years, and somehow create some sort of average, weighing more recent elections higher to reflect changing demographics. That's a lot of work for a one-off article.

Bert van

@David Amos You really need to brush up on your French and I’m not referring to mustard.

Phil Simpson

@David Amos - Not judging, just observing a pattern of behaviour that is in fact judgemental.

John White

@David Amos Please explain what N'esy Pas means? I think maybe you are trying to be witty and failed. I think you meant n'est-ce pas? Pleas do not butcher the French language. It is one of our official languages you know?

Bala Viswa

@Mike Unsern
The article states that the numbers are an average of the last three elections.

Mike Unsern

@Bala Viswa
So it does.. my mistake. I saw the results from Calgary and assumed that had to be a result of it being primarily from the last election.

It's a good day when I'm proven wrong.. means I learned something. Thanks!

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David Amos

@John White Methinks you should have read all my comments before you made a fool out of yourself N'esy Pas?

David Amos

@Phil Simpson Wrong anyone can see what you are doing

David Amos

@Bert van Methinks you are trying to insult my Acadian friends N'esy Pas?

David Amos

@Mike Unsern I disagree I smell political spin for the benefit of one party

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/mike-allen-campaign-financing-laws-pc-leadership-1.4763099

Mike Allen charged with campaign financing violations during PC leadership bid

Charges stem from alleged incidents during former MP's 2016 run for leadership of New Brunswick party

CBC News · Posted: Jul 26, 2018 4:07 PM AT 

Former MP Mike Allen has been charged with violating the Political Process Financing Act, according to court filings. (CBC)

Former MP Mike Allen has been charged with breaking provincial campaign financing laws for alleged fundraising practices during his unsuccessful bid to become leader of the New Brunswick Progressive Conservatives, according to court filings.

Fredericton police filed three charges, alleging violations under the Political Process Financing Act between July 12, 2016, and Dec. 20, 2016. The court documents are dated July 11.

Charges were also laid against Allen's wife, Jennifer Leduc-Allen, and his former campaign treasurer, Charles Wright.

Allen and wife are both charged with contributing to his leadership campaign in excess of the legal limit of $6,000 and making or issuing a false contribution receipt. Allen is also charged with accepting a contribution above the legal limit.

Wright faces multiple charges, including making a false statement on a financial return, omitting contributions details from a return, making or issuing a false contribution receipt and accepting a contribution above the legal limit.

One of 7 candidates

Allen was one of seven people vying to be the PC leader at the party convention on Oct. 22, 2016.
He was eliminated on the second of three ballots at the convention, which ultimately chose Blaine Higgs as leader.

Neither Wright or the Allens could be reached for comment Thursday.

The charges stem from an Elections New Brunswick examination of the Allen campaign's financial return, said Paul Harpelle, communications director for Elections New Brunswick.

"We referred the file in May of 2017 to the Fredericton police department, and, as this matter is now before the courts, it would be, of course, inappropriate to offer any additional comments regarding this matter," Harpelle said Thursday.

He said the circumstances surrounding the charges will become clearer in court and declined to comment further.

CBC's Journalistic Standards and Practices

Which way does your riding lean? Mapping Canada's most partisan places

From one election to the next, ridings can be very consistent in how they lean toward one party or another

Éric Grenier · CBC News · Posted: Jul 27, 2018 4:00 AM ET

Party leaders (from left to right) Jagmeet Singh of the NDP, Andrew Scheer of the Conservatives and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of the Liberals will be leaning heavily on voters in the run-up to the 2019 federal election. Which ridings will lean back? (Canadian Press)

Do you live in a riding that leans more toward one party than the others?

In theory, every party's seat count is reset to zero when Parliament is dissolved and a new election is called. In practice, there are regions of the country where one party has an intrinsic advantage over its rivals. Some ridings are just more Liberal, or Conservative, or New Democratic than others — regardless of which candidates are running for office.

• Analysis
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• Analysis
  Where the parties are raising the money to fight the 2019 election

In the run-up to the midterm elections in the United States this fall, you might often hear districts described as having a 'partisan lean'. It's a measure of how much a constituency tilts toward the Democrats or Republicans as compared to the rest of the country.

But what about Canada?

By subtracting each party's national vote share from its performance in each individual riding, it's possible to measure the partisan lean of any given seat. For example, if the Liberals obtained 45 per cent of the vote in a riding when the party had 40 per cent support nationwide in the same election, we could say that particular riding has a Liberal partisan lean of five points — that it's five points more Liberal than the country as a whole.

Averaging out these leans over the last three elections lessens the effect of factors that can be unique to a particular election — the ebb and flow of a particular campaign, or the candidates on a ballot.

It comes as no surprise where each party's strongholds are located, of course. But a riding's lean is often quite consistent from one election to the next, regardless of what is happening nationwide.

Calculating a riding's partisan lean makes it possible to compare one riding to another and put it in a national context, and to identify patterns about where the future of a party lies.

Liberal leans in Atlantic Canada, Toronto and Montreal

The strongest ridings for the Liberals are concentrated in just three parts of the country: Atlantic Canada, Montreal and the Greater Toronto Area. Newfoundland and Labrador is home to the four ridings with the most significant Liberal lean, with the province's four ridings west of the Avalon Peninsula all leaning at least 30 points more Liberal than the nation.

Only three of the 50 ridings with the steepest Liberal leans are located west of the GTA; all but seven are located in Atlantic Canada, Montreal or around Toronto.

Of the 26 ridings leaning furthest away from the Liberals, 25 of them are in Western Canada — and nearly all of those are in either Alberta or Saskatchewan. The outlier is the Quebec riding of Lac-Saint-Jean.

This actually illustrates the potential for local candidates to influence these partisan leans. Over the last three general elections, Lac-Saint-Jean has been 18.1 points less Liberal than the country as a whole.

But with the retirement of Conservative MP Denis Lebel and the Liberal candidacy of a popular local mayor, Richard Hébert, the Liberals were able to win this riding in a byelection last year.

Conservatives have the most strongholds

No surprise here: the ridings that lean most heavily toward the Conservatives are located in Alberta and Saskatchewan. The party's best 18 ridings are in these two provinces. Half of the top 50 Conservative-leaning ridings are in Alberta, with another 17 in British Columbia, Saskatchewan or Manitoba.
But the Conservatives also boast more strongholds than either the Liberals or the NDP.

In total, 45 ridings have a Conservative partisan lean of 20 points or more. This virtually guarantees the party a win in each of these seats, as it implies that even if the Conservatives fall to 30 per cent support nationwide — a historical floor — they should still win a majority of the vote in at least 45 ridings.

By comparison, the Liberals have only 27 ridings with a partisan lean of at least 20 points, while the NDP has just 24.

The 22 ridings that lean furthest away from the Conservatives are all located in Quebec, as are 43 of the party's 50 worst ridings.

However, analyzing the partisan lean of ridings in the context of a province rather than nationwide shows how there are a few Conservative standouts in Quebec. There are 10 ridings in that province that lean at least 15 points more Conservative than Quebec as a whole.

Topping that list is Maxime Bernier's riding of Beauce, which leans 39.1 points more Conservative than all of Quebec. That's the biggest provincial partisan lean any party enjoys in the country.

NDP leans are candidate-influenced

While the Liberal and Conservative leans are geographically distinct, that's not the case for the NDP. Its top 50 ridings are distributed across the country far more broadly.

This pattern suggests the NDP's lean can be attributed to the people representing the party in those ridings, rather than to the region. The strongest NDP leans tend to be found in places where they have had some of their highest-profile MPs.

At the top of the NDP's lean list is St. John's East, which (until his defeat in the 2015 federal election) was represented by Jack Harris, a former leader of the Newfoundland and Labrador NDP.

Also on the NDP's list are a number of ridings which had popular MPs who were not on the ballot in 2015: Vancouver East (Libby Davies), Acadie–Bathurst (Yvon Godin) and Toronto–Danforth, held by Jack Layton until his death in 2011.

But while the absence of these candidates put a dent in the ridings' partisan lean, the lean was still there. Vancouver East had a 28-point NDP lean in 2008 and a 30-point lean in 2011 with Davies, but it still leaned 24 points to the New Democrats when Jenny Kwan successfully took her seat there in 2015.

Acadie–Bathurst swung to the Liberals, but the riding still had a 21-point NDP lean without Yvon Godin on the ballot.

And Toronto–Danforth went from a 27-point NDP lean in 2008 under Layton to a 24-point NDP lean under Craig Scott in 2015 (not enough to keep Scott from being defeated, however).

Vancouver Island leaning Green

Four of the 10 best ridings for the Greens are on Vancouver Island, suggesting this is fertile ground for the party to make gains in the 2019 federal election.

But also relatively high on the Greens' lean list are ridings where provincial Green parties have scored some successes in the rest of the country. Guelph in Ontario ranks sixth with an 8.2-point Green lean, Fredericton is 19th on the list with a Green lean of 4.1 points, and Malpeque on Prince Edward Island is 37th, with a lean of two points toward the Greens. These three areas all elected Green party leaders in their provinces' most recent elections.

Split complicates the Bloc's electoral math

For the Bloc Québécois, its top ridings are primarily located in the suburbs north of Montreal. (The chart below shows how ridings in Quebec lean toward the Bloc compared to the province as a whole, rather than nationwide.)

But there's a complication here. The two best ridings for the Bloc (and three of the top five) are occupied by MPs from Québec Debout, an offshoot of the Bloc Québécois formed by dissident members of its caucus. That split that is likely to tilt the balance elsewhere.

About the Author

 

Éric Grenier

Politics and polls

Éric Grenier is a senior writer and the CBC's polls analyst. He was the founder of ThreeHundredEight.com and has written for The Globe and Mail, Huffington Post Canada, The Hill Times, Le Devoir, and L’actualité.

• Read more CBCnews.ca columns from Éric Grenier
• Follow Éric on Twitter at @EricGrenierCBC

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