David Raymond Amos @DavidRayAmos
Methinks LIEbrano spin doctors should be weary of flogging a dead horse by now N'esy Pas?
https://davidraymondamos3.blogspot.com/2019/03/the-cbcs-poll-tracker-gives.html
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-poll-tracker-1.5051433
How to follow the polls in a tumultuous election year
2252 Comments
Commenting is now closed for this story.
Stephen David
If CBC says the Conservatives are narrowing leading...they are likely leading by a lot.
David Amos
@Stephen David In closing CBC said
"In New Brunswick, however, the Poll Tracker accurately gave the Liberals a sizeable lead in the popular vote over the PCs, but just a 14 per cent chance that the PCs would emerge with the most seats. The PCs ended September's provincial election with 22 seats — one more than the Liberals. The unexpected can happen.'
"In New Brunswick, however, the Poll Tracker accurately gave the Liberals a sizeable lead in the popular vote over the PCs, but just a 14 per cent chance that the PCs would emerge with the most seats. The PCs ended September's provincial election with 22 seats — one more than the Liberals. The unexpected can happen.'
David Amos
@Stephen David Methinks they don't tell us everything N'esy Pas?
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/fundy-royal-riding-profile-1.3274276
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/fundy-royal-riding-profile-1.3274276
bryan cassidy
There should be no Trudeau in
this coming election. There is no trust and no integrity. Trudeau is
not worthy of this position for Canadians.
David Amos
@Suki McNally I say Sir John A MacDonald is the champ
Kevin Delaney
@Richard Sharp
Replace all the Leaders of our current crop post October.
Replace all the Leaders of our current crop post October.
bryan cassidy
The only way Canadians can win is by getting rid of Trudeau.
David Amos
@Kevin Delaney I agree
David Amos
@Richard Sharp Methinks you should be weary of flogging that dead horse by now N'esy Pas?
Stephen David
The Liberals are done. The
only real alternative is a Conservative majority and preferably with the
PPC party sitting in opposition.
David Allan
@Stephen David
I'd be curious to see you math for how that happens.
The PPC pulls more votes from the CPC than any other party.
I'd be curious to see you math for how that happens.
The PPC pulls more votes from the CPC than any other party.
David Amos
@mo bennett Yo Mo Methinks you mean diddly-squat N'esy Pas?
Frank Hammerschmidt
Vote for a Party led by an ethics violator?......never.
Jack O Hill
@colin smith
"Trudeau never ben held in comtempt of pariliment for example."
Remarkable what a kangaroo court can do to a minority government, isn't it.
I'm no Harper / Sheer fan, but that repeated claim is absurd. Especially once you know what it was all about.
"Trudeau never ben held in comtempt of pariliment for example."
Remarkable what a kangaroo court can do to a minority government, isn't it.
I'm no Harper / Sheer fan, but that repeated claim is absurd. Especially once you know what it was all about.
@Susan South "Please look beyond 2015 when posting"
Methinks folks forget a lot on purpose N'esy Pas?
Methinks folks forget a lot on purpose N'esy Pas?
bryan cassidy
The Liberals have taken a hit
throughout the country. Canadians have taken the biggest hit having to
deal with a government in chaos. A bigger hit to the wallet with massive
new debt and continuing deficit budgeting. There is no responsible
governance here. Trudeau doesn't know what that is.
david mccaig
@bryan cassidy
The establishment that owns most of our media don't vote liberal or socialist NDP and their articles and misinformation reflects that reality.
The establishment that owns most of our media don't vote liberal or socialist NDP and their articles and misinformation reflects that reality.
David Amos
@david mccaig Who coversees CBC?
John Ng
One term disaster that will take a full term by Scheer to clean up
Peter Manchak
@Neil Gregory More of a mess PET and jt made, with some Chretien scandal tossed in the middle.
David Amos
@Neil Gregory I wholeheartedly agree
Al Purves
These Polls can't be right. No Way Justin is that Popular!
Jack O Hill
@Michael MacKenzie
"Maybe by having the most sensible environmental policies and a leader who is ethical."
and a determination to shut down the economy.
"Maybe by having the most sensible environmental policies and a leader who is ethical."
and a determination to shut down the economy.
David Amos
@Verne Gerchin Methinks amazing things never cease N'esy Pas?
Maxim Verite
The only poll that matters is election day. Then the day after, as Trudeau cleans out his office.
Peter Manchak
@Lucian Patterson Libs got blown away in Ontario???
David Amos
@Kevin Delaney We agree again
Robert Jarvis
Good grief, I don't need polls to help me decide who to vote for.
R.Gabrielle Berry
@Robert Jarvis
So how will you decide?
Will you listen to the political debates?
Will you read each party's platform?
There has hardly ever been a time of such important where Canadian voters must do their very best to get that "X" in the right spot.
p.s. I have little use for polls as well.
So how will you decide?
Will you listen to the political debates?
Will you read each party's platform?
There has hardly ever been a time of such important where Canadian voters must do their very best to get that "X" in the right spot.
p.s. I have little use for polls as well.
Kevin Delaney
@R.Gabrielle Berry has
Agree. I will look at the platform. I will also look at the team within. I seek integrity in depth. Also looking for in-depth leadership potential as I think all current Party Leadership requires replacement.
Agree. I will look at the platform. I will also look at the team within. I seek integrity in depth. Also looking for in-depth leadership potential as I think all current Party Leadership requires replacement.
How to follow the polls in a tumultuous election year
The CBC's Poll Tracker gives the Conservatives a narrow lead in the polls
With little more than seven months to
go before the October election, Justin Trudeau's Liberals are trailing
Andrew Scheer's Conservatives in the polls. Their chances of winning
re-election are no better than a coin-flip.
But a month ago, the Liberals were in a strong position to secure a second term in office.
Things can change quickly in public opinion, particularly when a controversy like the SNC-Lavalin affair blows up in an election year. Between now and Oct. 21, when Canadians are scheduled to go to the polls, voting intentions are likely to change again. And again.
The CBC's Canada Poll Tracker will follow the ups and downs of public opinion straight through to election day. The Poll Tracker is an aggregation of all publicly available polls which weights each survey by date, sample size and pollster track record. (Full methodology here.)
Over 150 national polls were published in the run-up to the 2015 federal election. The Poll Tracker
boils those different surveys down into one set of numbers that can be
tracked over time, providing a consensus view of all the data out there.
That consensus currently gives the Conservatives the lead — their first lead in the polls since the prime minister's disastrous trip to India over a year ago.
The Conservatives have made a modest gain at the expense of the Liberals, as have the New Democrats under Jagmeet Singh. But Scheer's Conservatives haven't yet reaped significant rewards from the Liberal Party's struggles. Their lead is primarily due to a drop in Liberal support, rather than a surge for the Conservatives.
For the NDP, its polling increase still leaves the party in a precarious position; indeed, it's only now recovering from what was a new floor in its support.
But the national numbers only tell part of the story.
The Poll Tracker takes all of the regional data in national polling — as well as polls conducted in only one part of the country — to estimate where each party has its strength and weaknesses.
The Liberals have taken a hit throughout the country. They still lead in Quebec and Atlantic Canada — though their margins over the Conservatives have shrunk in both regions. They've lost their edge in both Ontario and British Columbia.
The Bloc Québécois and Conservatives have made progress in Quebec, while the New Democrats remain in danger of losing all of the seats they won in that province in 2015.
The Poll Tracker's seat projection model makes it possible to draw reasonable conclusions about what current support levels in the polls would produce in seats. These estimates are made by shifting previous election results in each of Canada's 338 ridings by changes in regional voting intentions.
With a narrow lead nationwide, the Conservatives are in the best position to win the most seats. But the Conservatives' seat advantage over the Liberals looks narrow due to the regional breakdown of that support; both parties are in minority government territory. The New Democrats (who could lose nearly half of their seats) and to a lesser extent the Bloc could hold the balance of power in such a minority legislature.
In fact, the Poll Tracker currently considers a minority government of one stripe or another the most likely outcome. On the question of which party would win the most seats in an election held today, the Poll Tracker sees a virtual toss-up between the Conservatives and the Liberals. It all depends on how the votes are distributed at the riding level — and how accurate the polls turn out to be.
Normal sampling error makes it inevitable that some polls will be closer to the mark than others, even if they're done correctly and are drawn from representative samples. But it's impossible to know for certain which of these polls will hit the bull's-eye beforehand — and which ones will prove to be outliers.
The Poll Tracker tries to emphasize this degree of uncertainty. The polling aggregates and seat projections are expressed with 'confidence ranges' to indicate that a number of outcomes are possible based on the information available. The probability of each party winning is calculated in order to show which outcomes are more likely than others.
Of course, the fact that a particular outcome is unlikely doesn't mean it won't happen. The Ontario Poll Tracker gave Doug Ford's Progressive Conservatives a 94 per cent chance of winning the most seats in June's provincial election, as turned out to be the case.
In New Brunswick, however, the Poll Tracker accurately gave the Liberals a sizeable lead in the popular vote over the PCs, but just a 14 per cent chance that the PCs would emerge with the most seats. The PCs ended September's provincial election with 22 seats — one more than the Liberals. The unexpected can happen.
Polls are an inescapable part of modern election campaigns. There are lots of them out there and they can contradict each other. The Poll Tracker is designed to help cut through the noise and make some sense of the numbers in order to understand where Canadians stand — and why political parties do what they do.
It's the kind of information parties use to draw up their electoral strategies. The Canada Poll Tracker tries to even the playing field in what could be a tumultuous election year.
CBC's Journalistic Standards and Practices
But a month ago, the Liberals were in a strong position to secure a second term in office.
Things can change quickly in public opinion, particularly when a controversy like the SNC-Lavalin affair blows up in an election year. Between now and Oct. 21, when Canadians are scheduled to go to the polls, voting intentions are likely to change again. And again.
The CBC's Canada Poll Tracker will follow the ups and downs of public opinion straight through to election day. The Poll Tracker is an aggregation of all publicly available polls which weights each survey by date, sample size and pollster track record. (Full methodology here.)
That consensus currently gives the Conservatives the lead — their first lead in the polls since the prime minister's disastrous trip to India over a year ago.
The Conservatives have made a modest gain at the expense of the Liberals, as have the New Democrats under Jagmeet Singh. But Scheer's Conservatives haven't yet reaped significant rewards from the Liberal Party's struggles. Their lead is primarily due to a drop in Liberal support, rather than a surge for the Conservatives.
For the NDP, its polling increase still leaves the party in a precarious position; indeed, it's only now recovering from what was a new floor in its support.
But the national numbers only tell part of the story.
Liberals lead in Quebec and Atlantic, Conservatives everywhere else
The Poll Tracker takes all of the regional data in national polling — as well as polls conducted in only one part of the country — to estimate where each party has its strength and weaknesses.
The Liberals have taken a hit throughout the country. They still lead in Quebec and Atlantic Canada — though their margins over the Conservatives have shrunk in both regions. They've lost their edge in both Ontario and British Columbia.
The Bloc Québécois and Conservatives have made progress in Quebec, while the New Democrats remain in danger of losing all of the seats they won in that province in 2015.
The Poll Tracker's seat projection model makes it possible to draw reasonable conclusions about what current support levels in the polls would produce in seats. These estimates are made by shifting previous election results in each of Canada's 338 ridings by changes in regional voting intentions.
With a narrow lead nationwide, the Conservatives are in the best position to win the most seats. But the Conservatives' seat advantage over the Liberals looks narrow due to the regional breakdown of that support; both parties are in minority government territory. The New Democrats (who could lose nearly half of their seats) and to a lesser extent the Bloc could hold the balance of power in such a minority legislature.
In fact, the Poll Tracker currently considers a minority government of one stripe or another the most likely outcome. On the question of which party would win the most seats in an election held today, the Poll Tracker sees a virtual toss-up between the Conservatives and the Liberals. It all depends on how the votes are distributed at the riding level — and how accurate the polls turn out to be.
Expecting the unexpected
One of the benefits of aggregating polls is that it reduces the odds of drawing misleading conclusions from individual surveys that are subject to multiple potential sources of error. In previous provincial and federal elections, the Poll Tracker aggregate has out-performed most individual polls.Normal sampling error makes it inevitable that some polls will be closer to the mark than others, even if they're done correctly and are drawn from representative samples. But it's impossible to know for certain which of these polls will hit the bull's-eye beforehand — and which ones will prove to be outliers.
The Poll Tracker tries to emphasize this degree of uncertainty. The polling aggregates and seat projections are expressed with 'confidence ranges' to indicate that a number of outcomes are possible based on the information available. The probability of each party winning is calculated in order to show which outcomes are more likely than others.
Of course, the fact that a particular outcome is unlikely doesn't mean it won't happen. The Ontario Poll Tracker gave Doug Ford's Progressive Conservatives a 94 per cent chance of winning the most seats in June's provincial election, as turned out to be the case.
In New Brunswick, however, the Poll Tracker accurately gave the Liberals a sizeable lead in the popular vote over the PCs, but just a 14 per cent chance that the PCs would emerge with the most seats. The PCs ended September's provincial election with 22 seats — one more than the Liberals. The unexpected can happen.
Polls are an inescapable part of modern election campaigns. There are lots of them out there and they can contradict each other. The Poll Tracker is designed to help cut through the noise and make some sense of the numbers in order to understand where Canadians stand — and why political parties do what they do.
It's the kind of information parties use to draw up their electoral strategies. The Canada Poll Tracker tries to even the playing field in what could be a tumultuous election year.
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