Quebec is suddenly up for grabs

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-scheer-quebec-1.4574319

With Quebec suddenly up for grabs, Conservatives see an opportunity

Andrew Scheer makes a pitch to Quebecers as Conservatives' fortunes improve in the province

By Éric Grenier, CBC News Posted: Mar 14, 2018 4:00 AM ET

  
1013 Comments 

Obviously a lot were removed 

995 Comments
Commenting is now closed for this story.


 
Neil Gregory

The Liberal Party of Canada made a huge mistake when thy took an inexperienced back-bencher with nothing but a famous name from a by-gone era and made him their leader.

Richard Sharp

@Neil Turv

When the election was called, the Libs were waaay behind both the NDP and the Cons. It was their party platform, the campaign and Trudeau himself that earned the
Libs their majority.

David Amos

@Richard Sharp From my point of view Trudeau "The Younger" didn't win because of his actions Harper and Mulcair lost because of theirs

David Amos 

 @Neil Gregory The liberals made such a grave error that they went from third party status to an overwhelming mandate with Trudeau "The Younger" at the helm.

Methinks Harper and the NDP lost every seat in the Maritimes only because the liberal leader looked oh so much better in the selfies. N'esy Pas? Or could it have been some other reason?

Imagine how the liberals would have fared if they had some very experienced old wiseguy in Trudeau's stead who was a worn out old boot? For some strange reason I don't think they could have done any better in the Maritimes. Methinks the next election will take many seats from the liberals in the Maritimes and Ontario. Hell they just might lose

 
Luke Armstrong

Trudeau's better suited for the position of Bonhomme, King of the Carnival.

David Amos

@Luke Armstrong Why would Trudeau "The Younger" want to be a mere King of a Carnival when he is already the Ringmaster of the biggest Circus in Canada that travels worldwide?

  
Peter Boone

Great opening picture of Scheer and Trudeau together.

David Amos

@Peter Boone Methinks ya gotta give the little devil his due I bet he fooled Harper 2.0 with that costume N'esy Pas?

 
Buford Wilson

We may see 25 seats for the Conservatives in Quebec next year.

Guy Trembley

@Buford Wilson

Best stop slamming Quebec, if you want the votes.

David Amos

@Buford Wilson After the Liberals won every seat in the Maritimes with the last kick at the can of worms nothing would surprise me anymore

David Amos

@Guy Trembley Methinks the following is true about voters in Quebec N'esy Pas?

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/political-warfare-russia-hacks-1.4560505

Another striking difference, he said, is the apparent sophistication of Canadian voters compared to Americans.

"I don't think we're as vulnerable as the U.S.," said Turnbull. "Canadians are more cynical about politics. A critically thinking, educated public helps. A little bit of critical thinking [and] you would be immune to all of this."

Guy Trembley

@David Amos

?? I'm not sure how to read this.

David Amos

@Guy Trembley In a nutshell I believe that Quebecers think about things before they vote. Hence I agreed with your words

"Best stop slamming Quebec, if you want the votes"

  
Rob Preston

When the liberal leader spent all his time the last two weeks in Ontario and Quebec speaking in factories instead of the HOC. You can see the desperation starting to set in.

Andrew Stathat

@Donald Patrick I think the spin on this particular tread is the fact that the house of commons was not in session for the last 2 weeks, yet there are some who are upset that JT was not sitting in the house of commons...even though it was not in session!!!

David Amos

@Andrew Stathat Good point sir but they will ignore you anyway

  
Nicolas Krinis

I think the liberal strategists are aware that, at best, JT is looking at a minority government. The writing is on the wall. Catering to minorities, women and serving us the same pablum in the HOC day in, day out. Fortunately, the people that were enamored with JT's charisma will remember the stable governments we enjoyed during the Harper years and vote him out of office. Wait until the carbon tax...er sorry, it's not a tax, kicks in.

David Amos

@Nicolas Krinis "I think the liberal strategists are aware that, at best, JT is looking at a minority government."

Methinks once Ford gets rid of Carbon Tax in Ontario the liberal's goose will be cooked N'esy Pas?

 

laurie Hansen

Nice to see the liberals have picked a new leader dressed up as a snow man, I mean a snowpeople

David Amos

@laurie Hansen "I mean a snowpeople"

Nope wrong again that is a snowperson

David Amos

@Gordon MacFarlane I see that Mr Sharp is missing in action again. Very strange indeed

  
Bruce McAra

That India debacle didn't play well anywhere. Trudeau got a mulligan from Canadians for a multitude of blunders but that one was one too many.

Richard Sharp

@Bruce McAra

Trudeau was very well received by Modi, as they’ve met many times. Canada signed a half dozen deals with India, including one on counter-terrorism. Trudeau patched things with an Indian Sikh leader. A billion dollars in new trade deals too. And Trudeau and his family paid due respect to the traditions amd culture of India throughout.

If you want to write all that off because of a mistaken invitation and his overdoing the costume bit, be my guest.

David Amos

@Richard Sharp You must be joking

 

Kathleen Maduro

All Andy has to do is sit back and enjoy the ride... Liberal boondoggles, scandals, missteps, lies, politicking at the taxpayers expense, obsession with marginalia and juvenile behaviour will do the unraveling. Trudeau is one and done.

David Amos

@Kathleen Maduro I agree

  
Luke Armstrong

There is also a lot we don't really know about Trudeau as things tend to get swept under the rug. Proven to be unethical. Let's not forget that.

David Amos

@Luke Armstrong What do we know about Harper 2.0?

With Quebec suddenly up for grabs, Conservatives see an opportunity

Andrew Scheer makes a pitch to Quebecers as Conservatives' fortunes improve in the province

By Éric Grenier, CBC News Posted: Mar 14, 2018 4:00 AM ET
 

With his party gaining in the polls, Andrew Scheer is hoping for a breakthrough in Quebec. (Jacques Boissinot/Canadian Press)

In an open letter published in La Presse on Tuesday, Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer invited Quebecers to give his party another look, citing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's "incompetence" and the "existential crises" crippling the Bloc Québécois.

The Conservatives spy an opportunity in Quebec. And given the party's growing support in the province, they might be right.

• Did Trudeau's botched India trip lose the Liberals their polling lead?

• Poll Tracker: Conservatives and Liberals tied

Quebec was the only province in which the Conservatives made gains in the 2015 federal election.

Their increase in the popular vote there was modest — just 0.2 percentage points, up to 16.7 per cent — but their seat haul jumped by seven to 12, the most seats the party has won in Quebec since the days of Brian Mulroney.

Further gains looked doubtful after the Conservatives lost a seat in a byelection held in Lac-Saint-Jean in October. But recent polls suggest that the party has seen a boost in support in Quebec over the last few weeks.

The CBC's Poll Tracker, an aggregation of publicly available polling data, puts the Conservatives at 21 per cent in Quebec, an increase of five points since the beginning of the year. That still puts them well behind the Liberals — who lead with 40.7 per cent — but it does open up some possibilities for them in parts of the province.

The Poll Tracker model suggests that the Conservatives could see their seat total increase to between 13 and 16 seats at these levels of support, with potential gains being made in Quebec City, the Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean region and the swath of territory lying between Montreal and the provincial capital.

Liberals, Bloc fall as Tories, NDP rise

Despite the Liberals' lead in Quebec, the party has seen its support erode recently. The Liberals are down almost seven points since the beginning of January.

The New Democrats, at 18 per cent, have picked up a couple of points.

The turmoil within the Bloc Québécois — seven of its 10 MPs left caucus last month in protest over Martine Ouellet's leadership — has cost that party some of its support. The Bloc has dropped three points in only the past few weeks and is now at 14.2 per cent.

The party was polling as high as 22 per cent in October. Its recent tumble has pushed it from second to fourth place in Quebec.

Polls suggest the Bloc Québécois has taken a hit under Martine Ouellet. (CBC)

Scheer's open letter made an appeal both to federalists disappointed with the Liberals and nationalists tired of the Bloc's internal spats. It's virtually the same pitch that Stephen Harper made to Quebecers in the 2006 federal election. Back then, it helped his party jump to 24 per cent support and 10 seats in Quebec after being shut out of the province in 2004.

Scheer made no such pitch to NDP voters. The leap to the Conservatives might be a leap too far for the NDP's remaining supporters in Quebec to make — including those nationalist voters who might be turned off by NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh's wearing of religious symbols.

But at this stage, the Conservatives are only in a position to pick up a handful of extra seats. The party would need to significantly reduce the Liberals' support in Quebec before seeing more than three or four more seats fall into their hands.

And Quebec remains the linchpin of the Liberals' re-election strategy in 2019. Their recent polling drop in the province is not large enough to cost them much in the seat count. The party could win up to 65 seats in Quebec at current levels of support, a gain of 25 seats over its 2015 performance — and perhaps enough to make up for losses the Liberals could suffer in other parts of the country.

Jumping on the CAQ bandwagon?

The opportunity presented by the Liberals' slide in popular support and the Bloc's self-destruction coincides with changing fortunes at the provincial level that could bode well for the Conservatives.

The Coalition Avenir Québec, a centre-right nationalist party led by François Legault, is currently leading in the polls in Quebec. The CAQ shares some of the same voters with the Conservatives — the party is most popular in the Quebec City region, where the Conservatives hold most of the federal seats.

That raises the tantalizing prospect of gains around Montreal. According to a recent poll by Léger, the CAQ is in first place in the Greater Montreal region, with a significant lead in the surrounding suburbs.
The Conservatives haven't won seats in the Montreal region since the 1980s, but the Conservatives did finish second in most of the area's ridings in 2006. At this stage, however, Scheer's Conservatives still have much work to do before a Montreal-area seat becomes winnable.

Scheer's profile in Quebec is still low

Scheer also has a lot of work to do before Quebecers get to know him better. Léger found that 48 per cent of Quebecers don't have an opinion of the Conservative leader, 10 months after he won the leadership.
On measures of Quebecers' preferences for prime minister, Trudeau outscores Scheer by a wide margin. But Scheer might look like a good option for disillusioned nationalist voters: Léger found that 51 per cent of Quebecers are dissatisfied with Ouellet's performance as Bloc leader, compared to just 15 per cent who gave her a thumbs up.
The first test of Scheer's appeal in Quebec will come soon. A byelection to replace former Liberal MP Denis Lemieux in the Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean region seat of Chicoutimi–Le Fjord must be called by June. The Conservatives are running a high-profile candidate in Richard Martel, former head coach of the Chicoutimi Saguenéens junior hockey team.
It is a seat that should already be high on the Conservatives' list of potential gains in Quebec in 2019. So that's where Scheer's attempt at a grande séduction begins.