Southeast N.B.'s booming population leads Canada
Magnitude of population jump 'is unprecedented,' says economist Richard Saillant
The region, that includes Dieppe, Riverview and surrounding areas, had a population of 178,971 as of July 1, 2023 — a 6.1 per cent increase from 2022.
Its growth rate was essentially tied with the Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo, Ont., area and was just ahead of Calgary. The national statistics agency attributed the growth "in large part to strong international migration."
In New Brunswick, population growth over recent years has smashed records dating back to Confederation.
"The magnitude of the population boom is unprecedented," economist Richard Saillant told Information Morning Moncton about the latest figures.
"I mean, we're leading the country, who would have thought?" he said.
"It's a spectacular explosion, and it's spread across southeastern New Brunswick."
The Moncton region added 23,893 people, the equivalent of adding a new town of Riverview, over the last four years.
But in recent years, housing prices and rents have soared, food banks have reported steep growth in demand, and schools in the Moncton region have turned to using non-teaching spaces and portable buildings as classrooms to keep up with surging enrolment.
Meanwhile, new home construction has lagged behind other Maritime provinces.
That growth and sharp increases in property assessments set by the province have bolstered municipal and provincial budgets.
While Statistics Canada releases provincewide population estimates quarterly, the data released this week offers a detailed look at where the booming population has settled in the province.
Shediac grew to 8,724 people, a 7.6 per cent increase, in one year. Moncton grew by seven per cent, reaching 91,085 people, while Dieppe grew by 6.1 per cent to 32,177. Riverview grew by two per cent, to 21,712.
The estimates use 2021 community boundaries, before local governance reforms increased the size of many municipalities in the province.
The Fredericton region, which includes New Maryland, Hanwell and other rural areas, grew to 119,059 in 2023.
The Saint John region, including Rothesay, Quispamsis, Grand Bay-Westfield and Hampton, grew to 138,985.
Fredericton, with 69,406 people, inched closer to overtaking Saint John, with 75,015 people, to become the province's second-largest city.
The 5,609-person gap is down from almost 20,000 in 2003.
But growth was also recorded in regions across the province that in previous years had been in decline.
"We're seeing something we hadn't seen in at least a generation, which is growth across the board," Saillant said.
The Miramichi region grew to 29,411 people, up 5.7 per cent compared to 2019. The Bathurst region grew to 32,821, up 3.4 per cent over 2019.
The Edmundston region increased 3.3 per cent since 2019 to reach 23,113 people.
In the north, the Campbellton region grew by 66 people, or 0.5 per cent, to 12,179 people since 2019.
Richard
Saillant, a Moncton-based economist and public policy consultant, calls
the unprecedented growth a 'spectacular explosion.' (Jacques Poitras/CBC)
Saillant noted that the increases, driven by migration, immigration or non-permanent residents, mask the reality that deaths still outpace births in some areas.
"So underneath the numbers, the migration numbers are strong but population growth is less impressive because of natural decrease," he said.
Saillant says he doesn't expect the growth to continue at the same pace, given changes the federal government has announced to immigration and international students.
"Ottawa is waking up to the reality [of] unconstrained immigration to the country," Saillant said, saying the growth has been attributed to an affordability crisis.
"But to deal with that, Ottawa is effectively making a huge U-turn on migration."
That shift is expected to result in lower population growth in the Maritimes, which Saillant says will require careful planning to address housing and labour demands.
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The article also suggests that immigration is uncontrolled when it is actually based on a points system and has actually undershot recent goals: 471,550 new permanent residents in 2023, 94,576 people emigrated, net 376974. Add to that 47,000 births-deaths. While organic growth has only a small impact on population growth, New Brunswick is actually dragging the numbers down. So population growth is primarily due to immigration; however, the workforce is shrinking in spite of immigration and huge numbers of TFWs, over 700,000 in 2023. The article seems to imply that immigration and TFW policies have changed when they haven't; the only substantial change is reducing student visas which is a different lane altogether. The TFW provides a substantial number of New Brunswick workers in agriculture and seafood but New Brunswick employers complain that the program is too restrictive: they want a more generous and flexible program and, presumably, more foreign workers.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/fundy-royal-riding-profile-1.3274276
"McKenzie, an electrical engineer living in St. Martins, threw her name in after becoming discouraged and disillusioned by the current government.
People want our youth back, we want to have reasons to stay here. The region has lost a lot of its youth because of the Harper government's lack of focus on the economy, be part of the economy and have jobs
The current government's focus on the prairie provinces in the oil and gas industry left New Brunswick and the Atlantic provinces neglected, and we actually had a three year recession here."
"Lockhart says her party's focus on seniors through initiatives like affordable housing, strengthening the Canada Pension Plan and guaranteed income supplement would benefit the region. They worked hard their whole lives and we need to make sure they have secure retirements,"
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