David Raymond Amos @DavidRayAmos
Replying to @DavidRayAmos @Kathryn98967631 and 47 others
Methinks it should be a small wonder to most folks who don't vote for political parties as to why I will proudly run as an Independent once again N'esy Pas?
https://davidraymondamos3.blogspot.com/2019/05/another-liberal-mp-bows-out-of-fall.html
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-liberal-incumbents-1.5118569
Another Liberal MP bows out of fall election - but Liberals haven't lost their incumbency edge
2136 Comments (after editing)
Commenting is now closed for this story.
David R. Amos
Who believes this nonsense? Survey Says???
Jeremy Kemp
Scheer's continued absence doesn't bode well for future success, Canadians want a PM that engages with them on the issues not one that continues to hide out of sight and mind.
Stephen David
Reply to @Jeremy Kemp:
lol...Scheer is doing just fine. He could and will make a great PM.
David R. Amos
Reply to @Jeremy
Kemp: Methinks the absence of Harper 2.0 is offset by Trudeau the
Younger's many appearances that have gone awry N'esy Pas?
Ron Brady
Content Disabled
Reply to @Stephen David: -50 downvotes instantaneously for the record.
Matt
Thuaii
Reply to @Jeremy Kemp:
It won’t matter. Pressure from foreign powers who don’t like being scolded by Trudeau’s Liberals (or anyone for that matter), from the Far-right elements of the Conservatives (as enable by the moderate elements, because they crave power), and from the chaotic times we currently live in, all might just be enough to confuse people into replacing a good government with a bad one...but not to worry...
...according to many commenters these days, Canada doesn’t matter that much and should just stay out of everyone’s way.
It won’t matter. Pressure from foreign powers who don’t like being scolded by Trudeau’s Liberals (or anyone for that matter), from the Far-right elements of the Conservatives (as enable by the moderate elements, because they crave power), and from the chaotic times we currently live in, all might just be enough to confuse people into replacing a good government with a bad one...but not to worry...
...according to many commenters these days, Canada doesn’t matter that much and should just stay out of everyone’s way.
John Kimble
Reply to @Ron Brady: its pretty obvious when cbc pulls this kinda thing. They can't even be subtle about it
David R. Amos
Reply to @Matt
Thuaii: "according to many commenters these days, Canada doesn’t matter
that much and should just stay out of everyone’s way"
Methinks it should be a small wonder to most folks who don't vote for political parties as to why I will proudly run as an Independent once again N'esy Pas?
Methinks it should be a small wonder to most folks who don't vote for political parties as to why I will proudly run as an Independent once again N'esy Pas?
David R. Amos
Reply to @John Kimble: Methinks you are talking to a ghost N'esy Pas?
John Kimble
Reply to @David R. Amos: haha deleted. Manipulating the votes and silencing us. Bravo cbc.
Matt Thuaii
Ron Brady
Reply to @Jeremy Kemp: Oh my. Look at how the real votes have suddenly caught up!
David R. Amos
Reply to @Matt Thuaii: "something tells me you won’t have any more success than the Liberals."
Methinks yoou should give some credit for actually doing something about my concerns instead of merely whining all day in CBC N'esy Pas?
David R. Amos
Steven Henry
I saw an ad for Scheer and was laughing at what a joke he is. No doubt Trudeau is bad, but Scheer is complete madness!
David R. Amos
Reply to @david mccaig:
Is that what we see happening?
It would seem that our left wing governments are also neck deep in corporate interests and bribery.
Opposite sides of the same coin, so it would seem.
David R. Amos
Reply to @John Chow: "Opposite sides of the same coin, so it would seem."
BINGO
Richard Sharp
With a couple of notable exceptions, the Liberals have shown great loyalty and unity, in Cabinet and in caucus. When Canadians come to understand their remarkable economic, democratic and other achievements vs. the Conservative alternative (going backwards), they'll give the Libs another term.
Peter Boone
David R. Amos
Reply to @Peter Boone: Seems so
Ron Brady
Content Disabled
Reply to @Richard Sharp: Natural, real down votes will take effect in time.
David R. Amos
Reply to @David R. Amos: Reply to @Ron Brady: "Natural, real down votes will take effect in time."
YUP They are nearly there
John Kimble
Reply to @David R. Amos: now you're talking to a ghost!
Ron Brady
Reply to @Richard Sharp: ... and reality sets in re. voting.
David R. Amos
Reply to @John Kimble: "now you're talking to a ghost!"
Methinks its just another one of those things I do that folks fail to appreciate N'esy Pas?
Gorden Feist
Scheer would be a disaster for Canadians, even worse than Trudeau but better at covering it up.
David R. Amos
Lawrence Vickers
Reply to @Gorden Feist: Nobody could be worse than Mr.Trudeau!
David R. Amos
Reply to @David R. Amos: haha deleted. Manipulating the votes and silencing us. Bravo cbc.
Matt Thuaii
Reply to @David R. Amos:
Well, let’s figure this out. Are you pro-equality and pro-human rights? That means those foreign powers I mentioned will be actively working against you. Anti-racist? Anti-corporate capitalist? Even slightly socialist? Feel like saving even a single tree or having clean water? Then the same goes for those far-right elements I mentioned...and all signs point to more chaos on the horizon, not less...so independent or no...
...something tells me you won’t have any more success than the Liberals.
Well, let’s figure this out. Are you pro-equality and pro-human rights? That means those foreign powers I mentioned will be actively working against you. Anti-racist? Anti-corporate capitalist? Even slightly socialist? Feel like saving even a single tree or having clean water? Then the same goes for those far-right elements I mentioned...and all signs point to more chaos on the horizon, not less...so independent or no...
...something tells me you won’t have any more success than the Liberals.
Ron Brady
Reply to @Jeremy Kemp: Oh my. Look at how the real votes have suddenly caught up!
David R. Amos
Reply to @Matt Thuaii: "something tells me you won’t have any more success than the Liberals."
Methinks yoou should give some credit for actually doing something about my concerns instead of merely whining all day in CBC N'esy Pas?
David R. Amos
Reply to @John Kimble: Ya got to love the Circus
Steven Henry
I saw an ad for Scheer and was laughing at what a joke he is. No doubt Trudeau is bad, but Scheer is complete madness!
David R. Amos
Reply to @Steven Henry: Methinks you love the circus as much as I N'esy Pas?
John Chow
Is that what we see happening?
It would seem that our left wing governments are also neck deep in corporate interests and bribery.
Opposite sides of the same coin, so it would seem.
David R. Amos
Reply to @John Chow: "Opposite sides of the same coin, so it would seem."
BINGO
Richard Sharp
With a couple of notable exceptions, the Liberals have shown great loyalty and unity, in Cabinet and in caucus. When Canadians come to understand their remarkable economic, democratic and other achievements vs. the Conservative alternative (going backwards), they'll give the Libs another term.
Peter Boone
Reply to @Richard Sharp: I see that the CBC up arrow bot just got activated.
David R. Amos
Reply to @Richard Sharp: Methinks thou doth jest too much as usual N'esy Pas?
David R. Amos
Reply to @Peter Boone: Seems so
Ron Brady
Content Disabled
Reply to @Richard Sharp: Natural, real down votes will take effect in time.
David R. Amos
Reply to @David R. Amos: Reply to @Ron Brady: "Natural, real down votes will take effect in time."
YUP They are nearly there
John Kimble
Reply to @David R. Amos: now you're talking to a ghost!
Ron Brady
Reply to @Richard Sharp: ... and reality sets in re. voting.
David R. Amos
Reply to @John Kimble: "now you're talking to a ghost!"
Methinks its just another one of those things I do that folks fail to appreciate N'esy Pas?
Gorden Feist
Scheer would be a disaster for Canadians, even worse than Trudeau but better at covering it up.
David R. Amos
Reply to @Gorden Feist: YUP
Lawrence Vickers
Reply to @Gorden Feist: Nobody could be worse than Mr.Trudeau!
David R. Amos
Reply to @Lawrence Vickers: Methinks a lot folks will not forget your hero Mr Harper anytime soon N'esy Pas?
Irv Millar
Another day and another analysis that is a wonderful lead in for speculation or conjecture. The truths are seemingly lost in the appearance of truth. The Conservatives still have no platform or policy going into this election. Millions to advertise and none the wise.
David R. Amos
Reply to @Irv Millar: "The truths are seemingly lost in the appearance of truth."
Confucius Said “To know what you know and what you do not know, that is true knowledge.”
Confucius Said “To know what you know and what you do not know, that is true knowledge.”
Jamie Gillis
Reply to @david mccaig: "Honest journalists seeing the massive control of our news media by the right wing leaning wealth, are self censoring their news articles out of fear they will be let go"
Yeah, I call BS on this claim. You mean to say that not even one journalist, from CBC or CTV or Global or the Globe and Mail or you name it, is willing to blow a whistle on practices like that (which I don't see evidence of in mainstream reporting, in general)? If an organization forced its reporters to write biased material under threat of termination, that would be huge news and would be next to impossible to keep under wraps, especially when the employees are people whose job it is to expose the truth. These media conspiracy theories from you and Richard are beyond ridiculous.
David R. Amos
Content disabled
Reply to @Jamie Gillis: "Yeah, I call BS on this claim. You mean to say that not even one journalist, from CBC or CTV or Global or the Globe and Mail or you name it, is willing to blow a whistle on practices like that (which I don't see evidence of in mainstream reporting, in general)?"
Go Figure
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/fundy-royal-riding-profile-1.3274276
David R. Amos Reply to @Jamie Gillis: "Yeah, I call BS on this claim."
Trust that my reply was not BS
Thomas Campbell
Countries in good shape. I know Albertans are hurting but it's a massive wake up call to diversify their economy. Barring a meltdown between now and October, this Liberal government has my vote.
David R. Amos
Reply to @Thomas Campbell: "Barring a meltdown between now and October"
Methinks some folks may wish to know who you would vote for if there were a meltdown N'esy Pas?
Methinks some folks may wish to know who you would vote for if there were a meltdown N'esy Pas?
Jane Beagle
Reply to @Thomas Campbell: record trade deficit is only the start of a long list that tells us the country is most definitely NOT in good shape
David R. Amos
Reply to @Jane Beagle: "record trade deficit is only the start of a long list that tells us the country is most definitely NOT in good shape "
True
Daryl McMurphy
Oh yes definitely, the loss of Liberal incumbents will send Liberal voter's rushing to vote for puppet boy Andrew. Hardly likely, please scream that the sky is falling somewhere else, like Alberta or Ontario where it may really happen.
David R. Amos
Reply to @Daryl
McMurphy: Methinks the sky may be falling for a lot of liberals who are
not re-offering in the Maritmes N'esy Pas?
Flip Anderson
Reply to @Daryl McMurphy:
Making derogortory nicknames of other people is a form of bullying. Usually it is a symptom of someone having a low self esteem. So what colour is the Hummer you drive, anyways?
David R. Amos
Reply to @Flip
Anderson: Methinks only a wealthy fool would buy a Hummer when so many
hot rod Lincolns can be had cheap N'esy Pas?
William Joseph Westcott Sr
Do I sense a bit of cheer leading from this article that it's not as bad as it really is for the Liberals ? CBC objective journalism isn't passing the smell test lately !
David R. Amos
Reply to @William Joseph Westcott Sr.: "CBC objective journalism isn't passing the smell test lately !"
Methinks it stinks N'esy Pas?
Methinks it stinks N'esy Pas?
James Holden
Reply to @William Joseph Westcott Sr.:
ReformaCons live in a 90% fact free zone.
They will say and do anything to get their hands back on power and the increased flow of money to the rich that goes hand in hand.
They are increasingly looking like the Trump brand of politics.
They are not above paying for comments and likes.
David R. Amos
Reply to @James Holden: "They are not above paying for comments and likes."
Too Too Funny Indeed
Mar Pell
thana feeling that should the liberals be the second choice on the ballot it will be a lot less dishonorable when Harper was kicked in shame.
At least the liberals will not be in shame and bury their head in the sand like Scheer does as he has no idea as what his platform is.
Michael
Milne
Reply to @Mar Pell:
This post is not even coherent. How does it get even 5 up votes, never
mind the over 30. Either scamming the results or Canada is truly
screwed.
David R. Amos
Reply to @Michael
Milne: Methinks it mere scamming It does not behove you to lose you
faith in Canada because of mindless political games N'esy Pas?
Joan Tyne
Reply to @Mar Pell: the election has been called?? missed that announcement.
David R. Amos
Reply to @Joan Tyne: Me Too
Bob Baker
Doesent matter any way with Max Bernier and 2 rogue Conservative Provincial Premiers soiling the Con brand the Conservatives are still on course for 3rd or 4th Party Status behind the Greens and the NDP. Lets see if Andy Scheer's still smiling then.
David R. Amos
Reply to @Bob Baker: Dream on
Marko Novak
I can't blame them for not wanting to stand for re-election with Trudeau as their leader.
David R. Amos
Reply to @Marko Novak: Methinks we should ask why they stayed on the Gravy Train for so long N'esy Pas?
Terry Jeffery
One term government now that people have got that carbon tax taste in their mouths plus other stuff Justin Trudeau have fed us
David R. Amos
Reply to @Terry
Jeffery: Methinks Carbon Tax is his biggest faux pas I have no doubt
whatsoever that many folks curse the liberals every time they pull up to
the gas pumps lately N'esy Pas?
Jeff Hunt
Bow out, thrown out or voted out...doesn't matter to me as long as they are out after the next election.
David R. Amos
Reply to @Jeff hunt: Methinks time will tell the tale Here to October is an eternity for political animals N'esy Pas?
Mark Sobkow
I guess the author likes to hear themselves talk, 'cause there is no "meat" and no relevant information in this article. You can pick apart all the irrelevant numbers you like and pretend they matter, but it won't change the fact that the Liberals are still getting stomped in the polls.
David R. Amos
Reply to @Mark Sobkow: Welcome to the Circus
Joyce Hope Shortell
Trudeau & the liberals lack of accomplishments coupled with SNC Lavalin will bring down his government.
David R. Amos
Reply to @Joyce Hope
Shortell: Methinks Trudeau The Younger can still win a minority mandate
because Harper 2.0 is far too dumb N'esy Pas?
Peter Vanderkellin
The liberals still have not figured out that their biggest liability is selfie the sock puppet.
They're done.
David R. Amos
Reply to @Peter
Vanderkellin: "The liberals still have not figured out that their
biggest liability is selfie the sock puppet. "
Methinks that clown's antics arethe most comical part of the Circus N'esy Pas?
Methinks that clown's antics arethe most comical part of the Circus N'esy Pas?
Dean Melanson
better for them to resign now rather than face humiliating defeat this fall ....
David R. Amos
Reply to @Dean Melanson: YUP
Peter Vanderkellin
One less to kick to the curb come October.
David R. Amos
Reply to @Peter Vanderkellin: YUP
Alex Forbes
I feel sorry for anyone who is duped enough to vote Liberal.
David R. Amos
Reply to @Alex
Forbes: Me Too but methinks you should feel sorry for those who support
the other political parties as well In my humble opinion voting for
Independents is the only way to go N'esy Pas?
Mo Bennett
all the first timers should retire, that way they won't qualify for the tax payer funded lifetime entitlement gravy train.
David R. Amos
Reply to @mo bennett: YO MO Say It Ain't So
Another Liberal MP bows out of fall election - but Liberals haven't lost their incumbency edge
Andrew Leslie is the newest name on a rather short list of Liberal non-returnees
Andrew Leslie is just the latest
Liberal MP to take a pass on the October election. But the only really
unusual thing about the list of Liberal incumbents opting not to run
again is that, by the standards of first-term governments, it's pretty
short.
Leslie, a retired lieutenant-general in the Canadian Armed Forces who was touted as a star candidate when he was first elected for the riding of Orléans in 2015, brings to 13 the number of MPs elected under the Liberal banner who are not running again in the fall.
Another five former Liberal MPs now sitting as Independents have not yet confirmed their plans for October. They include former cabinet ministers Jane Philpott, Hunter Tootoo and Jody Wilson-Raybould. (Philpott and Wilson-Raybould were, of course, ejected from the Liberal caucus in the wake of the SNC-Lavalin affair.)
That brings to 18 the number of ridings where the Liberals won't have an incumbent on the ballot in October.
That might sound like a lot. It isn't.
Every governing party first elected to office in Canada with a majority government has seen at least 10 per cent of its caucus not run for re-election at the next opportunity.
For Trudeau's Liberals, the number of one-and-done MPs adds up to just seven per cent of the 184 seats the party won in 2015 (or just under 10 per cent, if the independents are added to the list).
An analysis of the data on the Library of Parliament website shows that first-term majority governments have seen an average of 22 per cent of their caucuses (defined as the number of seats won in the previous vote) decide not to run for re-election — about three times the Liberals' current rate of non-incumbency.
Looking only at first-term majority governments since 1925 — when the rate of total non-incumbency fell below 40 per cent, where it has stayed in every election since — the average rate is still 17 per cent.
Trudeau's Liberals would have to lose another 20 or so incumbents in order to meet the historical average.
The number of incumbents not running for re-election undoubtedly will increase between now and October. If you include the opposition parties, the percentage of incumbents choosing not to run again this year currently stands at about 23 per cent. Since 1925, the average for the entire House of Commons has been around 29 per cent. So it seems very likely that other MPs will announce they won't re-offer in the coming months.
But unless there's a surge in Liberal MPs heading to the exits soon, there's no indication in these numbers that the Liberals should worry about losing in the fall solely based on their lack of incumbents. (The polls give them reasons enough to worry about that.)
Incumbents certainly do have value at the ballot box. Since Confederation, incumbents have been re-elected at a rate of about 76 per cent. And various studies have suggested that an incumbent candidate enjoys a bump of about five percentage points at the polls. That can be a significant advantage in a close election.
And it might worry the opposition parties now that, collectively, about 16 per cent of their MPs will not be running again — above the 14 per cent average for opposition parties prior to an election coming after a first majority term.
This is a rare situation in Canadian politics. In nearly four-fifths of all pre-election periods, the governing party loses more of its caucus to retirement than its opponents.
Not all incumbents are created equal, of course. The Liberals will be lacking incumbents in swing ridings in the Greater Toronto Area like Whitby, Oakville, Etobicoke Centre and Newmarket–Aurora. Orléans is a classic swing riding and the Liberals won't have incumbents in five of their 11 seats in Nova Scotia.
The Conservative incumbents not running for re-election, on the other hand, mostly hail from rural ridings that are unlikely to change colours.
Canada's last first-term majority government was Jean Chrétien's, from 1993 to 1997 (Stephen Harper's first majority in 2011 came after two minority terms in office). According to the Library of Parliament, just 19 Liberal MPs did not run for re-election in 1997 — 11 per cent of the 177 seats the party won in 1993. That appears to be the range in which Trudeau's Liberals could end up.
Brian Mulroney's Progressive Conservatives, at the end of their majority government's first term in 1988, saw 16 per cent of their incumbents decide not to run for re-election. Today's Liberals would need to see their number balloon to 29 MPs to match that score.
Both the Mulroney and Chrétien first-term governments were re-elected with majorities.
Defeated governments do tend to have higher rates of non-incumbency than re-elected ones. About 21 per cent of Harper's caucus didn't run for re-election in 2015. That was the highest rate for a governing party since 1993, when Kim Campbell's PCs were reduced to just two seats.
You have to go back to W.L. Mackenzie King's Liberals in 1945 to find the last time a governing party saw more than one-fifth of its caucus choose not to run again. King wasn't defeated in 1945 but his party did suffer significant seat losses.
On Wednesday, Ontario Liberal MP Andrew Leslie announced he was not seeking re-election this fall. (Adrian Wyld/Canadian Press)
It's
hard to see a pattern in the numbers that would suggest the Liberals
are in trouble because of a growing list of non-returnees. That's not to
say it doesn't matter.
Again, not all incumbents are created equal: the mere fact that Philpott and Wilson-Raybould won't be carrying the Liberal banner in the fall may not have much impact on the results — but the reason why they're no longer Liberals almost certainly will.
The
polls suggest the Liberals have an uphill climb ahead of them. That
makes the relatively short list of incumbent MPs taking a pass on
October somewhat surprising. It could indicate that the party doesn't
think its chances are so slim after all.
If events between now and October suggest the party is wrong about that, expect to see that list grow. Swiftly.
Leslie, a retired lieutenant-general in the Canadian Armed Forces who was touted as a star candidate when he was first elected for the riding of Orléans in 2015, brings to 13 the number of MPs elected under the Liberal banner who are not running again in the fall.
Another five former Liberal MPs now sitting as Independents have not yet confirmed their plans for October. They include former cabinet ministers Jane Philpott, Hunter Tootoo and Jody Wilson-Raybould. (Philpott and Wilson-Raybould were, of course, ejected from the Liberal caucus in the wake of the SNC-Lavalin affair.)
That brings to 18 the number of ridings where the Liberals won't have an incumbent on the ballot in October.
That might sound like a lot. It isn't.
Every governing party first elected to office in Canada with a majority government has seen at least 10 per cent of its caucus not run for re-election at the next opportunity.
For Trudeau's Liberals, the number of one-and-done MPs adds up to just seven per cent of the 184 seats the party won in 2015 (or just under 10 per cent, if the independents are added to the list).
Expect more MPs to bow out
An analysis of the data on the Library of Parliament website shows that first-term majority governments have seen an average of 22 per cent of their caucuses (defined as the number of seats won in the previous vote) decide not to run for re-election — about three times the Liberals' current rate of non-incumbency.
Looking only at first-term majority governments since 1925 — when the rate of total non-incumbency fell below 40 per cent, where it has stayed in every election since — the average rate is still 17 per cent.
Trudeau's Liberals would have to lose another 20 or so incumbents in order to meet the historical average.
The number of incumbents not running for re-election undoubtedly will increase between now and October. If you include the opposition parties, the percentage of incumbents choosing not to run again this year currently stands at about 23 per cent. Since 1925, the average for the entire House of Commons has been around 29 per cent. So it seems very likely that other MPs will announce they won't re-offer in the coming months.
But unless there's a surge in Liberal MPs heading to the exits soon, there's no indication in these numbers that the Liberals should worry about losing in the fall solely based on their lack of incumbents. (The polls give them reasons enough to worry about that.)
Opposition parties have more MPs not running again
Incumbents certainly do have value at the ballot box. Since Confederation, incumbents have been re-elected at a rate of about 76 per cent. And various studies have suggested that an incumbent candidate enjoys a bump of about five percentage points at the polls. That can be a significant advantage in a close election.
And it might worry the opposition parties now that, collectively, about 16 per cent of their MPs will not be running again — above the 14 per cent average for opposition parties prior to an election coming after a first majority term.
This is a rare situation in Canadian politics. In nearly four-fifths of all pre-election periods, the governing party loses more of its caucus to retirement than its opponents.
Not all incumbents are created equal, of course. The Liberals will be lacking incumbents in swing ridings in the Greater Toronto Area like Whitby, Oakville, Etobicoke Centre and Newmarket–Aurora. Orléans is a classic swing riding and the Liberals won't have incumbents in five of their 11 seats in Nova Scotia.
The Conservative incumbents not running for re-election, on the other hand, mostly hail from rural ridings that are unlikely to change colours.
More like Chrétien than Mulroney
Canada's last first-term majority government was Jean Chrétien's, from 1993 to 1997 (Stephen Harper's first majority in 2011 came after two minority terms in office). According to the Library of Parliament, just 19 Liberal MPs did not run for re-election in 1997 — 11 per cent of the 177 seats the party won in 1993. That appears to be the range in which Trudeau's Liberals could end up.
Brian Mulroney's Progressive Conservatives, at the end of their majority government's first term in 1988, saw 16 per cent of their incumbents decide not to run for re-election. Today's Liberals would need to see their number balloon to 29 MPs to match that score.
Both the Mulroney and Chrétien first-term governments were re-elected with majorities.
Defeated governments do tend to have higher rates of non-incumbency than re-elected ones. About 21 per cent of Harper's caucus didn't run for re-election in 2015. That was the highest rate for a governing party since 1993, when Kim Campbell's PCs were reduced to just two seats.
You have to go back to W.L. Mackenzie King's Liberals in 1945 to find the last time a governing party saw more than one-fifth of its caucus choose not to run again. King wasn't defeated in 1945 but his party did suffer significant seat losses.
Again, not all incumbents are created equal: the mere fact that Philpott and Wilson-Raybould won't be carrying the Liberal banner in the fall may not have much impact on the results — but the reason why they're no longer Liberals almost certainly will.
If events between now and October suggest the party is wrong about that, expect to see that list grow. Swiftly.
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