David Raymond Amos @DavidRayAmos
Replying to @DavidRayAmos @Kathryn98967631 and 47 others
Methinks the polls are saying that most Canadians would be satisfied with a Conservative minority N'esy Pas?
https://davidraymondamos3.blogspot.com/2019/05/voters-everywhere-are-in-no-mood-for.html
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/green-win-should-worry-trudeau-singh-1.5125761
Trudeau, Singh both have reason to worry about Green byelection breakthrough
2365 Comments
Commenting is now closed for this story.
David R. Amos
Surprise Surprise Surprise
Pat Robinson
Good effort to try and paint this as a problem for Scheer along with the real story of liberal and ndp collapse
There was never a chance of CPC win
David R. Amos
Reply to @Pat Robinson: "There was never a chance of CPC win" Methinks its wise to never say never N'esy Pas?
Pat
Robinson
Reply to @David R. Amos: I’m this riding?
Basic fact
It would be like the ndp saying the have a good chance to win a seat in rural AB
Why pretend
Basic fact
It would be like the ndp saying the have a good chance to win a seat in rural AB
Why pretend
David R. Amos
Reply to @Pat
Robinson: Methinks everybody knows that i often run a riding that if
they were to put a blue coat on the dog it would win. Yet Chretien
managed to put a liberal in its seat just once and Trudeau The Younger
repeated the amazing feat in 2015. Methinks you never can tell perhaps
the folks in Fundy Royal will vote for an Independent next time N'esy
Pas?
Gustav Labadie
I'd totally go for a CPC majority with a Green opposition
John Smith
Reply to @Gustav Labadie: Yes I’ve been saying that !
Would be nice for the Liberals to take a break and do some self-reflection
Would be nice for the Liberals to take a break and do some self-reflection
Rick McCann
Reply to @Gustav Labadie: Brings up an imagine of andy stamping his feet crying" aww, but liz!"
Pat
Robinson
Reply to @John Smith: yes
Forever
There is no reform possible
The party is designed to represent a narrow swath of the country while pretending to represent all
Justin has just been a little more blatant about it
Forever
There is no reform possible
The party is designed to represent a narrow swath of the country while pretending to represent all
Justin has just been a little more blatant about it
Mike Kennedy
Reply to @Rick McCann: Is Liz coherent in your dream?
David R. Amos
Reply to @Gustav Labadie: "I'd totally go for a CPC majority with a Green opposition"
Methinks the polls are saying that most Canadians would be satisfied with a Conservative minority N'esy Pas?
Methinks the polls are saying that most Canadians would be satisfied with a Conservative minority N'esy Pas?
Gustav
Labadie
Reply to @David R. Amos: Pas du tooting your own horn. Canadians want a CPC majority.
David R. Amos
Reply to @Gustav
Labadie: Methinks you should do your homework Everybody knows why I have
run as an Independent times thus far N'esy Pas?
David R. Amos
Reply to @mike kennedy: "Is Liz coherent in your dream?"
Methinks whether one dreams or not some folks know she is dirty when she is drinking and mean as snake when she is sober N'esy Pas?
Methinks whether one dreams or not some folks know she is dirty when she is drinking and mean as snake when she is sober N'esy Pas?
https://twitter.com/DavidRayAmos/with_replies
David Raymond Amos @DavidRayAmos
Replying to @DavidRayAmos @Kathryn98967631 and 47 others
Methinks its strange after what happened in NB and PEI that the Greens did not bother with Newfoundland in the provincial election going on right now N'esy Pas?
https://davidraymondamos3.blogspot.com/2019/05/voters-everywhere-are-in-no-mood-for.html
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/green-party-bc-win-climate-issues-impact-1.5125696
Green Party win in B.C. shows climate issues could impact October
2173 Comments
Commenting is now closed for this story.
Dave MacDonald
4th place finish for the Trudeau party . More proof Trudeau is done .
Mark Johnston
Reply to @Jason Tremblay (JasonDiggy): Conservatives came in second ahead of the NDP and Liberals. This is unheard of in BC
Andrew Stephenson
Reply to @Mark Johnston:
No, it isn't. The Conservatives regularly win ridings on the Island. This one is an NDP/Con swing.
No, it isn't. The Conservatives regularly win ridings on the Island. This one is an NDP/Con swing.
Bob Balmoral
Reply to @Mark Johnston:
You know nothing about BC, eh?
You know nothing about BC, eh?
Mark Johnston
Reply to @Bob Balmoral: A B.C. Conservative Party member hasn’t won a seat in the legislature since 1986
Jonny Elleven
Reply to @Mark Johnston: do some research. the "BC Liberal" party are actually conservatives.
David R. Amos
Reply to @Jonny Elleven: "the "BC Liberal" party are actually conservatives."
Oh So True
Oh So True
David R. Amos
Reply to @Dave MacDonald: "More proof Trudeau is done ."
True
True
Greg Mckenny:
What a stupid prediction by CBC. How does One simple seat in backwoods BC equate into "All Canadians are deeply concerned about the environment"?
David R. Amos
Reply to @Greg
Mckenny: You should check out what happened in the backwoods of the
Maritimes in the last two provincial elections, However methinks its
strange the Greens did not bother with Newfoundland in the election
going on right now N'esy Pas?
Steve Timmins
The main story here is the Liberals in last place. Everyone is so sick of Trudeau.
David R. Amos
Reply to @Steve Timmins: "The main story here is the Liberals in last place."
YUP
Phil Quetzal
I'm all for the Green Party even though in a perfect world there would be no need for a Green Political Party. Other political parties are blind to the real environmental issues and only barely acknowledge the dangers human development poses to other species and ourselves
Daniel McKay
Reply to @Phil
Quetzal: I think if the Greens were to come forward on a firm political
slant, left I assume, that the NDP's days would be virtually over. I see
the Greens emerging as the voice of socialism, because the federal Dips
have gravitated so close to the middle, that they cannot be
distinguished in any meaningful way from the Libs. Socialism is as
poorly represented as free-market capitalism, these days.
Thee Green party needs to clearly define their politics, in order to achieve their environmental goals. They need to clearly say "We are socialists" or "We are capitalists", that kinda thing.Ultimately, on election day, they are a political party, and while a voter may be ambivalent about their environmental ethic, the party's political slant will be the guiding principle that may attract the "X" on the ballot.
The Greens need to step up beyond their founding platform.
Thee Green party needs to clearly define their politics, in order to achieve their environmental goals. They need to clearly say "We are socialists" or "We are capitalists", that kinda thing.Ultimately, on election day, they are a political party, and while a voter may be ambivalent about their environmental ethic, the party's political slant will be the guiding principle that may attract the "X" on the ballot.
The Greens need to step up beyond their founding platform.
Tim Locke
Reply to @Daniel McKay: The Green party is centrist.
David R. Amos
Reply to @Tim Locke: YUP
https://twitter.com/DavidRayAmos/with_replies
David Raymond Amos @DavidRayAmos
Replying to @DavidRayAmos @Kathryn98967631 and 47 others
Do ya think anyone will ever admit that I ran for public office 6 times thus far and try to explain the reasons why? Methinks NOT N'esy Pas?
https://davidraymondamos3.blogspot.com/2019/05/voters-everywhere-are-in-no-mood-for.html
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-votes-newsletter-issue-4-no-mood-for-same-old-1.5123036
Voters everywhere are in no mood for the same-old
3469 Comments
Commenting is now closed for this story.
Ken MacDonald
Best person for the job, is that even a thing anymore? Put Canada first, minimize the political buffoonery, and start thinking beyond party lines. Too much to ask for?
Mo Bennett
Reply to @Ken MacDonald: from a politician? YEP! IN SPADES!
David R. Amos
Reply to @mo bennett:
YO MO Do ya think anyone will ever admit that I ran for public office 6
times thus far and try to explain the reasons why? Methinks NOT N'esy
Pas?
Voters everywhere are in no mood for the same-old
The Canada Votes newsletter is your weekly tip-sheet as we count down to Oct. 21.
The 2019
election campaign is already underway. The CBC News Canada Votes
newsletter is your weekly tip-sheet as we count down to Oct. 21.
Reading this online? Sign-up for the newsletter and receive it every Sunday.
Vassy Kapelos, host of Power & Politics
What does a byelection in Nanaimo-Ladysmith have in common with a Ukrainian comedian?
More than you might think. Or nothing. Bear with me for a few minutes.
The byelection tomorrow will be another window for something "different" to happen. And when I say "different," I mean something other than the typical outcome.
If you've been paying attention to the results of some recent provincial elections (and international ones, too), you'll notice small changes that have the potential to turn into something bigger.
In New Brunswick's provincial election back in September, voters showed they wanted change. OK, that's not unusual. What was unusual is where many of them chose to park their votes.
New Brunwsickers voted in a minority Conservative government - with the Greens and the People's Alliance of New Brunswick winning three seats apiece and holding the balance of power.
Last month, P.E.I's election saw another vote for change. Despite the economy's positive performance, voters in that province turfed the governing Liberals and voted in a Conservative minority government, with the Greens forming the Official Opposition.
As two former premiers from those provinces told me, voters increasingly are looking beyond the usual binary choice between voting Liberal or Conservative.
And that brings me back to Ukraine,
where a rejection of the status quo under Petro Poroshenko ended with a
guy who played the president on TV being elected to the job without
making a single campaign promise. It's President Volodymyr Zelensky now,
thank you very much.
Is something going on here? If so, what?
It's hard to know, and I hesitate to use the term 'populism' because it conveys so many different things to different people right now. But what I do see is a clear appetite for change, anxiety about the status quo and a desire among a growing number of voters to see less-traditional options as vehicles for that change - a way to reject the status quo.
Former New Brunswick premier Brian Gallant, who was turfed in September's election, told me recently it would be a big mistake for federal parties to ignore this trend.
So what does that mean for Monday's byelection? I don't know. I gave up on predicting elections back in 2015, when I told a group of much more senior reporters that there was no way Albertans would ever vote for change. (Very smooth move on my part.)
But the Greens have a shot, and a decent one in Nanaimo, as my colleague Éric Grenier points out.
According to Éric's poll tracker, the Greens are just six points behind the NDP nationally. The Greens have struggled (as they did in P.E.I.) to convert that popular support into actual wins. But along with the newly-formed People's Party of Canada (helmed by ex-Tory Maxime Bernier), they certainly throw something different into the mix heading into October.
The electorate itself also appears to be different this time - less confined to traditional voting patterns, more willing to try something new.
Vassy Kapelos is host of Power & Politics, weekdays at 5 p.m. ET on CBC News Network.
The Power & Politics Power Panelists on where the big parties will be focused this week
Amanda Alvaro president and co-founder of Pomp & Circumstance
The Liberals will likely continue to highlight that Andrew Scheer and his campaign director were recently caught holding behind-closed-doors strategy sessions with oil industry executives and shadowy third party groups. While the Conservatives strategized about "silencing environmental critics," the Liberals will continue to focus on the importance of a real plan to fight climate change
Rachel Curran senior associate at Harper & Associates Consulting
The Conservatives will be focused this week on issues designed to keep the government on the defensive: SNC-Lavalin; the trial of Vice-Admiral Mark Norman and the recent revelation that retiring Liberal MP Andrew Leslie will be testifying for the defence; and ongoing provincial opposition to Trudeau's carbon tax, as articulated in clear terms by Alberta Premier Jason Kenney in his testimony before the Senate on Bill C-69. The Conservatives will also be playing some defence of their own, as the Liberals press Scheer for his own climate change plan.
Kathleen Monk principal at Earnscliffe Strategy Group
New Democrat Leader Jagmeet Singh is trying to catch the eye of Canadians who are looking for a new progressive champion, now that 44 per cent of Liberal voters report they disapprove of Justin Trudeau's performance. Singh is starting to lay out his key policy offers for Canadians, such as affordable medicine, access to housing and a Canadian version of AOC's "Green New Deal." With just a few sitting weeks left in this Parliament, Singh has an important opportunity to hold Liberals accountable and will continue to put corporate influence over the Liberals under the spotlight.
On the face of it, the polls have been all over the map this past week.
Surveys by the Angus Reid Institute and Léger have given the Conservatives a lead of 13 percentage points over the Liberals. Nanos Research put the edge at just three points, while Ipsos suggested it was four. Forum Research split the difference with a seven-point margin.
The natural reaction might be to throw up your hands. But this is actually how it should be.
The Canada Poll Tracker currently shows the Conservatives with a lead of just over seven points nationwide. If that's the current political environment, then we should expect to see polls giving the Conservatives a double-digit edge, with others showing a gap within the theoretical margin of error.
Assume that these polls have a margin of error of about three points. Online surveys cannot calculate a margin of error in the same way as random surveys, but they are designed to replicate the same kind of accuracy — and a seven-point Conservative lead easily turns into a gaping 13-point edge when you add three points to the Conservative tally and take three points away from the Liberals.
Similarly, that seven point gap turns into a tight one-point margin just as easily. Suddenly we go from majority territory to a toss-up.
So don't worry too much about the differences between individual polls. They can still paint the same overall portrait — and right now, it's one that doesn't look good for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
Tap here to go to the full Poll Tracker
Conservatives, Liberals in closer fundraising race in decisive election battlegrounds
The Conservatives are dominating in fundraising nationwide, but where the money is coming from tells a different story.
Budget watchdog to crunch numbers on political campaign promises for 1st time
For the first time, Canada's budget watchdog has a mandate to cost out election campaign promises, but the uptake from political parties isn't clear.
Trudeau appoints Chrystia Freeland's chief of staff to run Liberals' election campaign
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his party's national campaign director this week, elevating his former deputy principal secretary Jeremy Broadhurst to the top of his re-election team.
Jim Hilson from Medicine Hat, Alta., emailed to ask… "I understand the reluctance of political parties to disclose too much too early. That just sets them up as a target. They have to keep electors on board and without giving away too much to the enemy. When is the right time for disclosure from a political party as to what they want to make the backbone of their campaign?"
The short answer is that there is no "right" time to release major parts of your eventual campaign platform. Most parties try to stagger announcements of significant policy initiatives to win as much attention as possible, and to force their opponents to respond. And, as you note, some parties prefer to wait to avoid having another party steal, incorporate, or otherwise assume all of parts of their plans.
For example, voters already have a good idea of how most of the parties plan to address climate change, and that's put pressure on the Conservatives to release their own plan before the summer, long before the formal campaign will begin this fall.
Most parties still time their campaign announcements to lead up to the formal release of a final, costed platform at some point in the campaign. Again, there's no firm rule about when a platform should be released.
Take 2015 as an example. The Liberals released the final, costed version of their platform on Oct. 5 while both the NDP and Conservatives unveiled their versions a few days later on Oct. 9.
The Greens were first-past-the-post, so to speak, when party leader Elizabeth May released her party's full platform on Sept 9.
There's a new wrinkle in this election. The Liberals passed legislation to allow the Parliamentary Budget Officer to give political parties the option of providing "independent and non-partisan" analysis of how much their platforms will cost taxpayers. So far, only the Liberals and Greens have given clear commitments to use the PBO's costing service, so stay tuned.
— Chris Hall, CBC National Affairs Editor and host of CBC Radio's The House
Thanks for reading. If you've got questions, criticisms or story tips, please email us at politics@cbc.ca.
Reading this online? Sign-up for the newsletter to have the Canada Votes Newsletter delivered to your inbox every Sunday.
CBC's Journalistic Standards and PracticesReading this online? Sign-up for the newsletter and receive it every Sunday.
Voters open to something different
Vassy Kapelos, host of Power & Politics
What does a byelection in Nanaimo-Ladysmith have in common with a Ukrainian comedian?
More than you might think. Or nothing. Bear with me for a few minutes.
The byelection tomorrow will be another window for something "different" to happen. And when I say "different," I mean something other than the typical outcome.
If you've been paying attention to the results of some recent provincial elections (and international ones, too), you'll notice small changes that have the potential to turn into something bigger.
In New Brunswick's provincial election back in September, voters showed they wanted change. OK, that's not unusual. What was unusual is where many of them chose to park their votes.
New Brunwsickers voted in a minority Conservative government - with the Greens and the People's Alliance of New Brunswick winning three seats apiece and holding the balance of power.
Last month, P.E.I's election saw another vote for change. Despite the economy's positive performance, voters in that province turfed the governing Liberals and voted in a Conservative minority government, with the Greens forming the Official Opposition.
As two former premiers from those provinces told me, voters increasingly are looking beyond the usual binary choice between voting Liberal or Conservative.
Is something going on here? If so, what?
It's hard to know, and I hesitate to use the term 'populism' because it conveys so many different things to different people right now. But what I do see is a clear appetite for change, anxiety about the status quo and a desire among a growing number of voters to see less-traditional options as vehicles for that change - a way to reject the status quo.
Former New Brunswick premier Brian Gallant, who was turfed in September's election, told me recently it would be a big mistake for federal parties to ignore this trend.
So what does that mean for Monday's byelection? I don't know. I gave up on predicting elections back in 2015, when I told a group of much more senior reporters that there was no way Albertans would ever vote for change. (Very smooth move on my part.)
But the Greens have a shot, and a decent one in Nanaimo, as my colleague Éric Grenier points out.
According to Éric's poll tracker, the Greens are just six points behind the NDP nationally. The Greens have struggled (as they did in P.E.I.) to convert that popular support into actual wins. But along with the newly-formed People's Party of Canada (helmed by ex-Tory Maxime Bernier), they certainly throw something different into the mix heading into October.
The electorate itself also appears to be different this time - less confined to traditional voting patterns, more willing to try something new.
Vassy Kapelos is host of Power & Politics, weekdays at 5 p.m. ET on CBC News Network.
Power Lines
The Power & Politics Power Panelists on where the big parties will be focused this week
Amanda Alvaro president and co-founder of Pomp & Circumstance
The Liberals will likely continue to highlight that Andrew Scheer and his campaign director were recently caught holding behind-closed-doors strategy sessions with oil industry executives and shadowy third party groups. While the Conservatives strategized about "silencing environmental critics," the Liberals will continue to focus on the importance of a real plan to fight climate change
Rachel Curran senior associate at Harper & Associates Consulting
The Conservatives will be focused this week on issues designed to keep the government on the defensive: SNC-Lavalin; the trial of Vice-Admiral Mark Norman and the recent revelation that retiring Liberal MP Andrew Leslie will be testifying for the defence; and ongoing provincial opposition to Trudeau's carbon tax, as articulated in clear terms by Alberta Premier Jason Kenney in his testimony before the Senate on Bill C-69. The Conservatives will also be playing some defence of their own, as the Liberals press Scheer for his own climate change plan.
Kathleen Monk principal at Earnscliffe Strategy Group
New Democrat Leader Jagmeet Singh is trying to catch the eye of Canadians who are looking for a new progressive champion, now that 44 per cent of Liberal voters report they disapprove of Justin Trudeau's performance. Singh is starting to lay out his key policy offers for Canadians, such as affordable medicine, access to housing and a Canadian version of AOC's "Green New Deal." With just a few sitting weeks left in this Parliament, Singh has an important opportunity to hold Liberals accountable and will continue to put corporate influence over the Liberals under the spotlight.
Poll Tracker Takeaway
Éric Grenier's weekly look at key numbers in the political public opinion polls.On the face of it, the polls have been all over the map this past week.
Surveys by the Angus Reid Institute and Léger have given the Conservatives a lead of 13 percentage points over the Liberals. Nanos Research put the edge at just three points, while Ipsos suggested it was four. Forum Research split the difference with a seven-point margin.
The natural reaction might be to throw up your hands. But this is actually how it should be.
The Canada Poll Tracker currently shows the Conservatives with a lead of just over seven points nationwide. If that's the current political environment, then we should expect to see polls giving the Conservatives a double-digit edge, with others showing a gap within the theoretical margin of error.
Assume that these polls have a margin of error of about three points. Online surveys cannot calculate a margin of error in the same way as random surveys, but they are designed to replicate the same kind of accuracy — and a seven-point Conservative lead easily turns into a gaping 13-point edge when you add three points to the Conservative tally and take three points away from the Liberals.
Similarly, that seven point gap turns into a tight one-point margin just as easily. Suddenly we go from majority territory to a toss-up.
So don't worry too much about the differences between individual polls. They can still paint the same overall portrait — and right now, it's one that doesn't look good for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
Tap here to go to the full Poll Tracker
More from CBC Politics
Conservatives, Liberals in closer fundraising race in decisive election battlegrounds
The Conservatives are dominating in fundraising nationwide, but where the money is coming from tells a different story.
Budget watchdog to crunch numbers on political campaign promises for 1st time
For the first time, Canada's budget watchdog has a mandate to cost out election campaign promises, but the uptake from political parties isn't clear.
Trudeau appoints Chrystia Freeland's chief of staff to run Liberals' election campaign
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his party's national campaign director this week, elevating his former deputy principal secretary Jeremy Broadhurst to the top of his re-election team.
Ask Us
We want to know what YOU want to know.Jim Hilson from Medicine Hat, Alta., emailed to ask… "I understand the reluctance of political parties to disclose too much too early. That just sets them up as a target. They have to keep electors on board and without giving away too much to the enemy. When is the right time for disclosure from a political party as to what they want to make the backbone of their campaign?"
The short answer is that there is no "right" time to release major parts of your eventual campaign platform. Most parties try to stagger announcements of significant policy initiatives to win as much attention as possible, and to force their opponents to respond. And, as you note, some parties prefer to wait to avoid having another party steal, incorporate, or otherwise assume all of parts of their plans.
For example, voters already have a good idea of how most of the parties plan to address climate change, and that's put pressure on the Conservatives to release their own plan before the summer, long before the formal campaign will begin this fall.
Most parties still time their campaign announcements to lead up to the formal release of a final, costed platform at some point in the campaign. Again, there's no firm rule about when a platform should be released.
Take 2015 as an example. The Liberals released the final, costed version of their platform on Oct. 5 while both the NDP and Conservatives unveiled their versions a few days later on Oct. 9.
The Greens were first-past-the-post, so to speak, when party leader Elizabeth May released her party's full platform on Sept 9.
There's a new wrinkle in this election. The Liberals passed legislation to allow the Parliamentary Budget Officer to give political parties the option of providing "independent and non-partisan" analysis of how much their platforms will cost taxpayers. So far, only the Liberals and Greens have given clear commitments to use the PBO's costing service, so stay tuned.
— Chris Hall, CBC National Affairs Editor and host of CBC Radio's The House
Thanks for reading. If you've got questions, criticisms or story tips, please email us at politics@cbc.ca.
Reading this online? Sign-up for the newsletter to have the Canada Votes Newsletter delivered to your inbox every Sunday.
Green Party win in B.C. shows climate issues could impact October
Newly elected Paul Manly expects support to grow ahead of federal election
· The Canadian Press ·
British Columbia voters sent a message that Canadians are deeply concerned about the environment and climate issues will be at the forefront in October's federal election campaign, jubilant Green Party supporters said Monday night.
Voters in Nanaimo elected Paul Manly of the Greens as their new member of Parliament, barely six months before October's federal vote.
John Hirst, the Conservative candidate, was a distant second with 25.1 per cent of the vote. The NDP polled 22.9 per cent and Liberal candidate Michelle Corfield received 11.1 per cent of the vote."People really want to see action on climate change," said Manly, who called his victory "historic."
Watch Manly discuss his byelection win:
CBC News
B.C. Green victory a win for a 'different kind of politics'
His victory shows the other parties that Canadians are serious about climate change, Manly said, adding he expects the Green wave of support to grow in the October election.
"It's time to step up and do what needs to be done and have a little bit of political courage to deal with climate change properly," Manly said. "Stop subsidizing the fossil fuel industry."
'Brave to vote for real change'
Ilan Goldenblatt, Manly's campaign manager, said voters in Nanaimo served notice to the Liberals, Conservatives and New Democrats that Canadians want more movement on environmental issues.
"There's a real strong sense here on the West Coast and on Vancouver Island that the three old-line parties are just slow on the uptake on actually committing to real action," he said.
Green Leader Elizabeth May said in a statement Manly's win signals a new era in federal politics. The win doubles Green Party caucus in the House of Commons, where May has served as the only Green MP since 2011.
"It is brave to vote for real change," said May in a statement. "Paul and I will work tirelessly to continue to earn the trust of Canadians."
"This vote is a clear message to the Liberals and Justin Trudeau," said Johns at a subdued NDP election headquarters for defeated candidate Bob Chamberlin. "The people in Nanaimo-Ladysmith and most Canadians are unhappy with what's going on in Ottawa. This is what we heard on the doorstep everyday."
He called the Green win a "protest vote," and said the NDP campaign for the October election "starts tonight."
Backing up May in Parliament
Manly said he was heading to Ottawa to help May.
"It sends a message clearly that we've seen a wave come across from Prince Edward Island ... that people are serious about climate change," he said.
Manly told the crowd of cheering supporters he will work hard to do better for the community.
"How we can change the economy — that we are working in to protect the environment that we need for our health, for our children, for our grandchildren," he said. "How we can do a better job of taking care of people who are less fortunate."
He said governments should stop subsidizing the "old" economy.
"We moved beyond the horse and buggy and it's time to move beyond the internal combustion engine," Manly said, as the crowd cheered.
"Those days should be over. It's time to move forward."
Manly, is a researcher, a filmmaker and a communications specialist. He was the Green Party's candidate in 2015 in the same riding and finished fourth with 20 per cent of the vote.
The riding has been vacant since January when former New Democrat MP Sheila Malcolmson resigned the seat to run successfully in a provincial byelection in Nanaimo.
This is the third election in eight months for residents of this Vancouver Island city.
Seven candidates were in the contest, which saw five federal leaders visit the riding, including Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer.
The Nanaimo area has traditionally swung back and forth between New Democrat or Conservative-leaning MPs.
Trudeau, Singh both have reason to worry about Green byelection breakthrough
Liberals slide as Greens win B.C. seat away from slumping New Democrats
The Greens are storming the islands. Could the mainland be next?
Paul Manly made history in Monday's federal byelection in Nanaimo–Ladysmith, winning the Vancouver Island riding and securing the Green Party its second seat in the House of Commons.
The breakthrough is a shot across the bow of both the New Democrats and Liberals, two parties that took significant hits in support as the Greens leapfrogged from fourth to first.
With 37.3 per cent of the vote, Manly increased his score from the 2015 election by 17.5 percentage points. The Conservatives' John Hirst finished second with 24.8 per cent, up 1.4 points from his party's performance four years ago.
The incumbent New Democrats slid by 10.1 points, with Bob Chamberlin capturing just 23.1 per cent of ballots cast. That was the party's lowest score in the region since 2000.
Watch Manly discuss the significance of his byelection win:
CBC News
B.C. Green victory a win for a 'different kind of politics'
With the next general election less than six months away, the results could not come at a better time for the Green Party, fresh off a provincial breakthrough in last month's election in Prince Edward Island.
While Vancouver Island has been a strong region for both the federal and provincial Greens in B.C., Nanaimo–Ladysmith does not overlap with any of the three seats held by the provincial party on Vancouver Island — suggesting the federal party is breaking new ground.
And the gain is impressive by the standards put up by its rivals in other byelections. The increase of nearly 18 points is the third biggest jump scored by any party in a byelection over the past four years, ranking just behind upsets pulled off by the Liberals in 2017 in Lac-Saint-Jean and the Conservatives in 2018 in Chicoutimi–Le Fjord. Both of those victories were seen as meaningful breakthroughs by the two parties in the decisive electoral battleground of Quebec.
Worrying sign for Singh, NDP
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has reason to be concerned by the results in Nanaimo–Ladysmith. The area has a long history of voting for the New Democrats, who have won at least a portion of the present riding — the boundaries were significantly redrawn before 2015 — in 18 of the 22 previous elections since 1953.
The New Democrats have now lost vote share in 11 of the 12 byelections held during Singh's leadership. The sole exception was Singh's personal victory in February's contest in Burnaby South.
Those are not the kind of precedents that Singh wants to be matching. And it is becoming a worrying pattern for the NDP — the provincial Greens benefited from the collapse of the NDP vote in New Brunswick and P.E.I. as well.
Only modest Conservative gain
With an increase of just over a percentage point, the Conservatives can be satisfied with the result. They have now gained in 13 of the last 18 byelections. But in an environment where the Conservatives hold a national lead over the Liberals of about seven percentage points, the Conservatives' expectations might be a little higher than this.
This is a below-average gain for the Conservatives in this Parliament, who before Nanaimo–Ladysmith averaged a five-point bump in byelections compared to 2015. With the exception of that election, 24.8 per cent is also the worst the Conservatives (and their predecessor parties) have managed in this area since 1972. These are not the results of a party on the cusp of a sweeping national victory.
The provincial elections in New Brunswick and P.E.I. are examples of how that can happen. In both cases, the Progressive Conservatives were able to form government despite losing vote share because the incumbent Liberals (as well as the NDP) lost much more.
Liberals lose most in unfriendly seat
That's what the Liberals might fear most in these results. The score the party put up in Nanaimo–Ladysmith was unimpressive, the 12.5-point slide the second biggest the Liberals have suffered in byelections under Justin Trudeau's leadership. If that happens across the country, the party will be back on the opposition benches after October.
Governing parties also don't usually finish fourth in byelections. It hasn't happened outside Quebec (where the Bloc Québécois complicates matters) since 2008, when Stephen Harper's Conservatives finished fourth in a byelection in Toronto Centre.
Still, the results raise a red — or green — flag for the party. While the loss of vote to the Greens did not cost them a seat here, it could lose them seats in other unexpected parts of the country.
It is just one byelection. But the results are consistent with some of the wider trends that have been witnessed over the past few months. Those are worrying trends for Singh and Trudeau — and signs that the October federal election could be one of the most unpredictable in years.
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