David Raymond Amos @DavidRayAmos
Methinks if SNC-Lavalin president and CEO Neil Bruce is a wise guy He would talk to me ASAP N'esy Pas?
https://davidraymondamos3.blogspot.com/2019/03/an-economic-reality-check-on-snc.html
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/snc-lavalin-scandal-economics-jobs-risk-1.5047248
An economic reality check on SNC-Lavalin: Are 9,000 jobs really at stake?
Comments after much editing
Commenting is now closed for this story.
If SNC Lavalin were to be
barred from bidding on any new federal contracts, their skilled workers
such as engineers would still be working, they would just be working for
whatever companies got those contracts.
David Amos
@Henri Bianchi Whereas the Brett Hol's "most liked" comment thread went "Poof" I will say it again here
Methinks if SNC-Lavalin president and CEO Neil Bruce is a wise guy He would talk to me ASAP N'esy Pas?
"SNC-Lavalin president and CEO Neil Bruce has said the company plans to 'vigorously defend' itself in the court case at the centre of the unfolding political scandal."
Methinks if SNC-Lavalin president and CEO Neil Bruce is a wise guy He would talk to me ASAP N'esy Pas?
"SNC-Lavalin president and CEO Neil Bruce has said the company plans to 'vigorously defend' itself in the court case at the centre of the unfolding political scandal."
David Amos
@Neil Turv I agree However
methinks the obvious question is who are the prosecutors to call
SNC-Lavalin bad in light of the fact that the government that oversees
the Justice Dept is worse N'esy Pas?
Paul Aumuller
The loss of 9000 jobs is
bogus. The excuse that SNC-Lavalin will move out of Canada is bogus. The
stance that the PM and federal liberals did not obstruct justice is
also bogus for it is completely true.
Edward (E) Merij
There is so much infrastructure work going on in Canada right now that there is a severe shortage of civil engineers.
David Amos
@Paul Aumuller I agree
Jason Martin
Trudeau and his cronies just couldn't resist playing big shot.
Now all Canadians want is the truth and punishment for those involved in shady deals.
Now all Canadians want is the truth and punishment for those involved in shady deals.
David Amos
@Jason Martin YUP
ByronMcLean
Work still has to be done. if not by SNC then another Cdn company. Only jobs in danger are SNV exec and Fliberal MPs
David Amos
@ByronMcLean YUP
Lloyd Browen
"An economic reality check on SNC-Lavalin: Are 9,000 jobs really at stake?"
Nope. Not a chance.
This was all about donations to the liberal party and the trudeau foundation.
Follow the money.
Nope. Not a chance.
This was all about donations to the liberal party and the trudeau foundation.
Follow the money.
Verne Gerchin
@Lloyd Browen
Bingo.
Bingo.
Philip Nicholson
@Lloyd Browen
And the Prince of Papineau's re-election
And the Prince of Papineau's re-election
David Amos
@Philip Nicholson Another BINGO
Elias Eliot
Attempting to intervene in
the course of justice by a government who promised transparency and
accountability is an insult to all Canadians.
Darnell Rockmart
@Dwight Williams No one said it's ok, but the added hypocrisy certainly doesn't help.
@Elias Eliot YUP
Ray Thomas
The reality is that under Trudeau, justice is for sale in Canada.
Darnell Rockmart
@Susan South Whataboutism 101
David Amos
@Ray Thomas YUP
Jonathan Keast
Definitely 1 persons job is at stake. Eh JT!
mia stalling
@Jose Smith
I don't see him running any where, but where is Andy these days........
I don't see him running any where, but where is Andy these days........
David Amos
@Jonathan Keast YUP
Edward Water
The case for a DPA for
SNC-Lavalin is significantly undermined when supporters resort to
hyperbolic over statement. Indeed, such exaggerations only serve to fuel
the doubts concerning the motivations of the those making the claims.
David Amos
@Edward Water YUP
Don Cameron
So, in essence:
9,000 jobs are at stake? False.
No work in Canada? False.
Move headquarters out of Quebec? False.
Trudeau's push for the DPA was partisan and politically motivated? TRUE.
No wonder we don't believe anything said by Trudeau, B*tts, or Wernick.
9,000 jobs are at stake? False.
No work in Canada? False.
Move headquarters out of Quebec? False.
Trudeau's push for the DPA was partisan and politically motivated? TRUE.
No wonder we don't believe anything said by Trudeau, B*tts, or Wernick.
John Chow
@Don Cameron
And yet the government keeps repeating the same talking points as if they were a shield.
And yet the government keeps repeating the same talking points as if they were a shield.
Dee Ray Ng
@John Chow
It would be insensitive not to mention blind supporters too.
It would be insensitive not to mention blind supporters too.
David Amos
@Don Cameron Oh So True
gary Shortell
It's not about the jobs it's
about the votes Trudeau needs in Quebec to win the next election. The
liberals have already shown they are willing to condone corruption.
Trudeau has lost his credibility. Canada deserves better in a P.M. SNC
Lavalin does not deserve preferential treatment.
Michael Flinn
@Phil Mortensen And the Liberals have no chance in many of those places - but they do in Quebec - which is the point.
@Michael Flinn Methinks Quebec is becoming leery of Trudeau and his cohorts too N'esy Pas?
James Watson
Any jobs that are at stake
would simply migrate to those Engineering companies that would replace
SNC-Lavalin in securing government contracts -Hatch Group of
Mississauga, Ontario, Golder Associates of Mississauga , and Stantec of
Edmonton, Alberta come to mind . Wrong province guess.
Stanley Baird
@James Watson SNC is a large donor to the liberal party - follow the money
FDavid Amos
@James Watson YUP
Harvey Oconnor
"I was not partisan to my riding" says Trudeau. I just about choked over my morning coffee hearing that yesterday.
Peter Fair
@Susan South Susan please get off the jobs jobs jobs BS. It is a red herring to be exposed further.
David Amos
@Harvey Oconnor I chuckled at
the nonsense of it all as befitting a proper circus. Methinks Trudeau
is well aware of why I look forward to running for a seat in parliament
again N'esy Pas?
Evan Guest
The real problem in Canada is
our in general failing economy under the Liberals. Last quarter GDP in
Canada is .1% vs 2.6% in U.S. This is going to swamp any negative
effects of letting SNC fail.
Jose Smith
@Max Webster
Admit we are doing something wrong rather than ignoring the stats and trends
Admit we are doing something wrong rather than ignoring the stats and trends
David Amos
@Jose Smith Methinks you are
talking to a ghost so somebody should agree with your comment that
obviously made him go "Poof' N'esy Pas?
John A Brown
Trudeau's main error here was
appointing an honest person with strong moral values to his caucus.
Guess it wasn't business as usual eh JT. Thank you Jody Wilson-Raybould.
Dee Ray Ng
@Stanley Baird
So I guess Freeland will stay on til the bitter end (double entendre).
So I guess Freeland will stay on til the bitter end (double entendre).
David Amos
@Dee Ray Ng Mais Oui/Of Course
Garry Horsnell
Everything PM Trudeau and his Liberals say is hogwash.
Canadians just can't trust them anymore.
Canadians just can't trust them anymore.
Dee Ray Ng
@Garry Horsnell
I wonder if a mass ballot spoiling would be interpreted differently.
I wonder if a mass ballot spoiling would be interpreted differently.
David Amos
@Garry Horsnell "Canadians just can't trust them anymore."
Methinks we never could They just been exposed tis all N'esy Pas?
Methinks we never could They just been exposed tis all N'esy Pas?
Paul Aumuller
Let us all remember that the
PM did not stand up for "jobs"...he stood up for his riding and votes.
That is what he stated to JWR and JWR directed him with interference. No
one can change this channel of obstruction.
Dee Ray Ng
@Catherine Haigh
Precisely, so mass ballot spoiling it is!
Precisely, so mass ballot spoiling it is!
David Amos
@Paul Aumuller YUP
Alex Go
If there is a demand for 9000
engineering jobs, then someone will fill it. Think about it. If
McDonalds leaves your town does it mean people are going to suddenly
want less hamburgers?
Dee Ray Ng
@Susan South
Good point.
Thus a thorough breakdown of what contributes to Canada's job market being best in 40 years.
Good point.
Thus a thorough breakdown of what contributes to Canada's job market being best in 40 years.
David Amos
@Alex Go Exactly
John Chow
Who knew that SNC-Lavalin was the foundation of the Canadian economy?
You would think that based what some are saying.
You would think that based what some are saying.
Vic Smith
@Phil Mortensen
With respect to the effect upon subcontractors and their employees, I question how that prime contractor's existing subcontracts could be put at risk, because a subcontract is a contract.
That leaves only notional future subcontracts to consider.
But all future subcontracts of all prime contractors are always at risk because the subcontracts do not yet exist. Until the subcontracts are signed, they are simply a hope.
Do the subcontractors not also bid on work to be subcontracted by other large construction project prime contractors?
With respect to the effect upon subcontractors and their employees, I question how that prime contractor's existing subcontracts could be put at risk, because a subcontract is a contract.
That leaves only notional future subcontracts to consider.
But all future subcontracts of all prime contractors are always at risk because the subcontracts do not yet exist. Until the subcontracts are signed, they are simply a hope.
Do the subcontractors not also bid on work to be subcontracted by other large construction project prime contractors?
David Amos
@John Chow "Who knew that SNC-Lavalin was the foundation of the Canadian economy?"
I still don't know that
I still don't know that
David Fletcher
The article doesn't really answer the question it posed. It basically says "maybe". What was the point?
Wil Brown
@Toni Scarfone - Fully agree.
Engineering "body shops" only keep you employed while you are making
them money. They hold on to very few people (typically just the share
holders) to bid on the next block of projects.
David Amos
@David Fletcher Methinks common sense is a rather thing within our beloved Crown Corp N'esy Pas?
An economic reality check on SNC-Lavalin: Are 9,000 jobs really at stake?
While its global workforce has grown to 50,000 employees, the company's footprint in Canada has been shrinking
Differing versions of what transpired behind the scenes as SNC-Lavalin lobbied the federal government for an out-of-court settlement have left the picture as clear as mud.
But one thing has been consistent: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau insists he is concerned about the impact on Canadian workforce should the Quebec-based engineering giant be barred from competing for federal projects.
SNC-Lavalin is at the centre of a growing political firestorm over allegations that officials with the Prime Minister's Office (PMO) tried to push former attorney general Jody Wilson-Raybould toward helping the firm avoid criminal prosecution.
SNC-Lavalin is currently facing fraud and corruption charges in connection with nearly $48 million in payments made to Libyan government officials between 2001 and 2011, and a court conviction could see the company face a potential 10-year ban on bidding on federal contracts.
Speaking before the Commons justice committee last month, Wilson-Raybould testified she felt "consistent and sustained" pressure from the PMO to offer the company something known as a deferred prosecution agreement. A DPA would still require the company to admit fault and pay a fine, but it crucially wouldn't ban SNC from federal projects.
She refused, and months later was shuffled to another portfolio.
In his own testimony to the committee this week, the prime minister's former principal secretary, Gerald Butts, repeated the concern about "the 9,000-plus people who could lose their jobs, as well as the many thousands more who work on the company supply chain," if the company couldn't secure a DPA.
Addressing the issue Thursday morning, Trudeau again made clear that his concern for thousands of lost jobs framed his interest in whether SNC should be offered a deal. "They — directly or indirectly — put food on the table for countless families, as one of Canada's major employers," he said.
But the reality of the risk that the company's entire Canadian workforce could be lost isn't quite that simple.
Are 9,000 jobs really at stake if SNC is banned from competing for federal projects?
Not likely, says construction analyst Andrew Macklin. "I think they're playing the worst case scenario," he said.SNC-Lavalin currently employs 8,762 people in Canada, including about 700 at its head office in Montreal. More than half of its Canadian employees work outside Quebec.
Many are currently engaged in multibillion-dollar projects across Canada that won't be finished for several years.
In a letter to investors last October, when it first publicly acknowledged it had failed to negotiate a DPA, the company conceded some bad business decisions and the ongoing criminal case have led to that decline.
"Highly skilled employees leave organizations mired in continued uncertainty — 10,000 Canadians have left our organization through no fault of their own since 2012."
Would SNC be shut out of doing business in Canada without a DPA?
It's possible, but unlikely. The ban on bidding for projects only extends to federal contracts — not provincial ones.
That means billions worth of contracts for other government projects, like new hospitals or bridges, are still open to the company. The provinces could choose to shut the firm out, but SNC-Lavalin is one of only about a dozen companies in the world capable of taking large infrastructure projects from conception to completion.
The company is already working on nearly $67 billion worth of projects in Canada and is in the process of bidding on others. SNC doesn't have to halt any bids until (and unless) a conviction is registered in court.
What about the suggestion the company might move its head office?
In his comments Thursday, Trudeau said SNC-Lavalin has suggested that if it were banned from federal business, it might move its headquarters out of Montreal.
The company was founded there in 1911 and, thanks to its substantial global growth, is a recognized symbol of big industry in Quebec.
Watch as Trudeau describes SNC-Lavalin as one of Canada's major employers:
Politics News
Trudeau on SNC-Lavalin
00:00
01:13
But from a corporate strategic standpoint for a company that frequently works across borders, moving your head office to a country that hasn't yet figured out how it's going to deal with most of Europe is a dicey gambit.
As a condition of a loan agreement with Quebec's pension fund manager, the Caisse de dépôt, the company has committed to stay headquartered in Canada until at least 2024.
How vulnerable is SNC if it loses business in Canada?
Increasingly, the company has most of its jobs and projects outside the country.
In 2013, about two-thirds of its business was happening here. Four years later, in 2017, that ratio was down to about one-third.
"We've got plenty of opportunities to grow the business outside of Canada," he responded. "But we're also connected to the Canadian market."
Is the DPA and political fallout SNC's biggest distraction right now?
Arguably no. The company is more likely focused on what's happened to its bottom line elsewhere.In late January, it revealed it had a 2018 operating loss of $1.3 billion — a sharp contrast to a profit of $382 million the year before. SNC-Lavalin blamed problems with a mining operation in Chile and a loss of business in Saudi Arabia.
It said its oil and gas business in Saudi Arabia, in particular, was partly due to "difficult intergovernmental relations between Canada and Saudi Arabia."
The company's share price has also fallen sharply in recent months, hitting a 10-year low last month.
The National
SNC-Lavalin affair: How accurate are Liberal claims that engineering firm’s conviction would cost 9,000 jobs?
00:00
03:44
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