https://twitter.com/DavidRayAmos/with_replies
David Raymond Amos @DavidRayAmos
Replying to @DavidRayAmos @Kathryn98967631 and 47 others
Methinks it would not be wise to bet the farm on Éric Grenier's opinions N'esy Pas?
https://davidraymondamos3.blogspot.com/2019/04/atlantic-canada-goes-from-stronghold-to.html
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-atlantic-polls-1.5081722
Atlantic Canada goes from stronghold to point of vulnerability for Liberals
990 Comments
Commenting is now closed for this story.
Rachael Saunders
Most Canadians are centrists, they stand in the centre range of the political spectrum. Liberals no longer represent the middle-ground views of many Canadians.
james Howard
Reply to @Rachael Saunders:
Most Canadians are central left, if you don't know that you don't know Canada!
Most Canadians are central left, if you don't know that you don't know Canada!
David R. Amos
Reply to @james Howard: "Most Canadians are central left, if you don't know that you don't know Canada!"
Methinks the same could be said of you and your declaration N'esy Pas?
Jamie Gillis
My only regret is that due to work I'll be moved out of Atlantic Canada before the election and won't be here to try help remove Trudeau from the PM office.
David R. Amos
Reply to @Jamie Gillis: Methinks I should not miss you for obvious reasons N'esy Pas?
George Shears
It's because we Atlantic Canadians can see and smell BS when we see it!
David R. Amos
Reply to @George
Shears: True but methinks too many folks don't do anything about the
stink hence we continue to get the governments we deserve N'esy Pas?
Rick Guthrie
The Liberals appear to be imploding. More to come...
David R. Amos
Reply to @Rick Guthrie: YUP
Kevin Jimmy spacey
As an Islander Wayne Easter showed the true colors of Trudeau's Liberal party two nights ago when he mouthed off about JWR...Trudeau is the must incompetent PM this Country has ever seen and the average blue color Canadian is getting really tired of this Liberal political correctness train ramming their BS down everyone's throat.
David R. Amos
Reply to @Kevin Jimmy spacey: "Wayne Easter showed the true colors "
Easter showed me his true olours in 2003
https://www.scribd.com/doc/2718120/integrity-yea-right
Easter showed me his true olours in 2003
https://www.scribd.com/doc/2718120/integrity-yea-right
Stephen David
The Liberal brand is finished after October and I don't think the Libs will see power again in this Country for at least a decade. They simply have become irrelevant.
David R. Amos
Reply to @Stephen David: Methinks it would not be wise to bet the farm on your opinion N'esy Pas?
David Barry Cooper
I sincerely hope that this does not come as a shock to anyone in the Liberal government, especially Justin.
David R. Amos
Reply to @David Barry Cooper: Methinks you should not worry I doubt Trudeau even noticed N'esy Pas?
Mark (Junkman) George
Maybe the spin from the PMO is making folks dizzy?
The only question I have is: If there wasn't something a bit, shall I say, "funny" going on, why did 3 guys resign? 3, count them, 3, money for nothing jobs, position, power, and bucks, and 3 guys simply have walked away.Maybe the spin from the PMO is making folks dizzy?
David R. Amos
Reply to @Mark
(Junkman) George: Methinks folks should check the tally of how many
liberal MPs are not running in the next election N'esy Pas?
Simon Tremblay
Canadians don't trust Trudeau anymore. The constant apologies, the fake tears. Canadians want a leader with a backbone, strength. And one they can trust.
David R. Amos
Reply to @Simon Tremblay: "Canadians want a leader with a backbone, strength. And one they can trust."
Methinks that is the reason so many folks don't vote N'esy Pas?
Methinks that is the reason so many folks don't vote N'esy Pas?
Buford Wilson
The Liberals are dropping like a stone.
Meanwhile I'm seeing explosive growth in Conservative support. Right across the country.
Watch for a glorious victory for Andrew come October
David R. Amos
Reply to @Buford Wilson: 'Watch for a glorious victory for Andrew come October."
Methinks you should understand why I look forward to running as an Independent again N'esy Pas?
Methinks you should understand why I look forward to running as an Independent again N'esy Pas?
Atlantic Canada goes from stronghold to point of vulnerability for Liberals
In wake of SNC-Lavalin affair, Liberals have lost the most support in Atlantic Canada
Atlantic Canada was where the first
domino of the SNC-Lavalin affair toppled in public — when Nova Scotia
cabinet minister Scott Brison decided to resign his post. It's
also where the Liberals have taken the biggest hit from the scandal's
fallout.
What was once the party's most formidable electoral stronghold has now become one of its key regions of vulnerability.
According to the testimony of Gerald Butts, the prime minister's former principal secretary, the plan to replace Brison as president of the Treasury Board was supposed to be simple and tidy. Jane Philpott would go from Indigenous Services to Treasury Board and Jody Wilson-Raybould would take Philpott's place. David Lametti would be promoted into the justice portfolio vacated by Wilson-Raybould.
It didn't quite work out as planned.
The CBC's Canada Poll Tracker has recorded a six-point drop in Liberal support nationwide in the wake of the controversy surrounding Wilson-Raybould's resignation from cabinet — but the party has fallen even further in Atlantic Canada.
The Poll Tracker estimates the Liberals are down to 37 per cent support in the region, just 2.5 points ahead of the Conservatives.
That's a 12-point drop from where the party stood on Feb. 5 — a few days before the Globe and Mail, citing unnamed sources, first reported that Wilson-Raybould was pushed by senior people in the Trudeau government to allow the Quebec engineering firm SNC-Lavalin to avoid criminal prosecution on fraud and bribery charges by meeting a number of conditions laid out in a remediation agreement.
That slide is twice as big as any drop the Liberals have suffered in other regions of the country and has been registered by every polling firm in the field over the last few weeks.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau also has taken a bigger personal hit in Atlantic Canada than in the rest of the country. His approval rating in Atlantic Canada has averaged 32 per cent in three recent polls by three different polling firms. Those same three firms found Trudeau's approval rating averaging 46 per cent in Atlantic Canada in November and December.
Trudeau
and the Liberals certainly had more ground to give up in Atlantic
Canada than they did elsewhere. The party swept all 32 of the region's
seats and beat the Conservatives by a margin of 40 points there in the
2015 federal election.
But the party has now gone from being 19 percentage points more popular in Atlantic Canada than in the country as a whole to just five points more popular there than nationwide. About one in four Atlantic Canadians who supported the Liberals at the beginning of February have since abandoned them. Nowhere else have the Liberals lost more than a fifth of their support.
It has a real impact on the Liberals' chances of holding their seats in the region.
When Butts testified at the justice committee last month, he talked about the electoral conundrum that Brison's departure created for the Liberals.
"Not to give away a political strategy in this forum," he said, "but my main political concern was our position in Nova Scotia."
Butts was worried that with Brison gone — and with a few other Nova Scotia Liberals already at risk of not running for re-election in the fall, particularly if they weren't given a promotion to replace Brison — the party would be without incumbents in five of their 11 seats in the province, leaving those seats vulnerable.
The
resignation of Scott Brison, standing here on the left during his
farewell speech in the House of Commons in February, triggered the
cabinet shuffle that ended up playing into the SNC-Lavalin affair. (Adrian Wyld/Canadian Press)
Indeed, Brison's departure has put those seats up for grabs — but not in the way Butts had expected.
The Poll Tracker estimates that, if an election were held today, the Liberals likely would hold on to between 13 and 22 of their 32 seats in Atlantic Canada. Lost to the Conservatives would be some seats in southern and central New Brunswick and some in rural parts of Nova Scotia. The New Democrats also would be in a better position to regain some of the seats they lost in 2015.
The list of nominally safe Liberal seats in the region is growing shorter, and includes a handful that will not have incumbents on the ballot — including Nova Scotia seats Sydney–Victoria, Cumberland–Colchester, West Nova and Brison's own Kings–Hants.
The loss of an incumbent makes it harder for a party to retain a seat. In no place is that truer than in Atlantic Canada.
While the Liberal slide coincides with the unfolding SNC-Lavalin affair, it's possible that provincial politics is making the party more susceptible to losses.
Polls suggest fatigue with the provincial Liberal government in Nova Scotia, while the incumbent Liberals are trailing in the polls in P.E.I. ahead of the Apr. 23 election.
The P.E.I. Greens are leading there — a development which could complicate things further for the federal Liberals. A Green victory in P.E.I. could boost the fortunes of federal Greens across the region and put a few more seats into play, eating into the Liberals' support among progressive Atlantic Canadians.
On the right, newly-installed Premier Blaine Higgs of New Brunswick is enjoying a bit of a honeymoon following September's provincial election. The Progressive Conservative leader has gone hard against the federal Liberals on their implementation of the carbon tax in his province.
At the start of this federal election year, the Liberals were in a good position. Some of their support in Ontario and Western Canada had eroded, but Quebec and Atlantic Canada gave the party enough of a base to look for re-election in October.
The Liberals still lead in both Quebec and Atlantic Canada, but that lead has grown smaller. It's almost entirely gone in Atlantic Canada. With it goes the seat cushion the Liberals were hoping for east of the Ottawa River.
What was once the party's most formidable electoral stronghold has now become one of its key regions of vulnerability.
According to the testimony of Gerald Butts, the prime minister's former principal secretary, the plan to replace Brison as president of the Treasury Board was supposed to be simple and tidy. Jane Philpott would go from Indigenous Services to Treasury Board and Jody Wilson-Raybould would take Philpott's place. David Lametti would be promoted into the justice portfolio vacated by Wilson-Raybould.
It didn't quite work out as planned.
The CBC's Canada Poll Tracker has recorded a six-point drop in Liberal support nationwide in the wake of the controversy surrounding Wilson-Raybould's resignation from cabinet — but the party has fallen even further in Atlantic Canada.
The Poll Tracker estimates the Liberals are down to 37 per cent support in the region, just 2.5 points ahead of the Conservatives.
That's a 12-point drop from where the party stood on Feb. 5 — a few days before the Globe and Mail, citing unnamed sources, first reported that Wilson-Raybould was pushed by senior people in the Trudeau government to allow the Quebec engineering firm SNC-Lavalin to avoid criminal prosecution on fraud and bribery charges by meeting a number of conditions laid out in a remediation agreement.
That slide is twice as big as any drop the Liberals have suffered in other regions of the country and has been registered by every polling firm in the field over the last few weeks.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau also has taken a bigger personal hit in Atlantic Canada than in the rest of the country. His approval rating in Atlantic Canada has averaged 32 per cent in three recent polls by three different polling firms. Those same three firms found Trudeau's approval rating averaging 46 per cent in Atlantic Canada in November and December.
But the party has now gone from being 19 percentage points more popular in Atlantic Canada than in the country as a whole to just five points more popular there than nationwide. About one in four Atlantic Canadians who supported the Liberals at the beginning of February have since abandoned them. Nowhere else have the Liberals lost more than a fifth of their support.
It has a real impact on the Liberals' chances of holding their seats in the region.
The Liberal sweep could be swept aside
When Butts testified at the justice committee last month, he talked about the electoral conundrum that Brison's departure created for the Liberals.
"Not to give away a political strategy in this forum," he said, "but my main political concern was our position in Nova Scotia."
Butts was worried that with Brison gone — and with a few other Nova Scotia Liberals already at risk of not running for re-election in the fall, particularly if they weren't given a promotion to replace Brison — the party would be without incumbents in five of their 11 seats in the province, leaving those seats vulnerable.
The Poll Tracker estimates that, if an election were held today, the Liberals likely would hold on to between 13 and 22 of their 32 seats in Atlantic Canada. Lost to the Conservatives would be some seats in southern and central New Brunswick and some in rural parts of Nova Scotia. The New Democrats also would be in a better position to regain some of the seats they lost in 2015.
The list of nominally safe Liberal seats in the region is growing shorter, and includes a handful that will not have incumbents on the ballot — including Nova Scotia seats Sydney–Victoria, Cumberland–Colchester, West Nova and Brison's own Kings–Hants.
The loss of an incumbent makes it harder for a party to retain a seat. In no place is that truer than in Atlantic Canada.
Provincial politics weighing the Liberals down?
While the Liberal slide coincides with the unfolding SNC-Lavalin affair, it's possible that provincial politics is making the party more susceptible to losses.
Polls suggest fatigue with the provincial Liberal government in Nova Scotia, while the incumbent Liberals are trailing in the polls in P.E.I. ahead of the Apr. 23 election.
The P.E.I. Greens are leading there — a development which could complicate things further for the federal Liberals. A Green victory in P.E.I. could boost the fortunes of federal Greens across the region and put a few more seats into play, eating into the Liberals' support among progressive Atlantic Canadians.
On the right, newly-installed Premier Blaine Higgs of New Brunswick is enjoying a bit of a honeymoon following September's provincial election. The Progressive Conservative leader has gone hard against the federal Liberals on their implementation of the carbon tax in his province.
At the start of this federal election year, the Liberals were in a good position. Some of their support in Ontario and Western Canada had eroded, but Quebec and Atlantic Canada gave the party enough of a base to look for re-election in October.
The Liberals still lead in both Quebec and Atlantic Canada, but that lead has grown smaller. It's almost entirely gone in Atlantic Canada. With it goes the seat cushion the Liberals were hoping for east of the Ottawa River.
About the Author
CBC's Journalistic Standards and Practices
Poll Tracker
Maintained by CBC poll analyst Éric Grenier, the Poll Tracker aggregates all publicly available polling data.
Latest polls and projections
Updated on April 02, 2019 at 10:18am ETPoll averages
CON
Data unavailable0.0
LIB
up+0.3
NDP
down-0.2
GRN
Data unavailable0.0
BQ
Data unavailable0.0
PPC
down-0.1
OTH
Data unavailable0.0
Seat projections
minority
majority
CON164
125203
LIB132
82186
NDP28
754
BQ12
129
GRN2
15
PPC0
01
OTH0
Probability of winning
38%
Probability of the Conservatives winning a majority
32%
Probability of the Conservatives winning the most seats but not a majority
20%
Probability of the Liberals winning the most seats but not a majority
10%
Probability of the Liberals winning a majority
The
Conservatives have led in the polls since February, moving ahead of the
Liberals as their support dropped in the wake of the SNC-Lavalin affair.
The Conservatives are short of being in a position to likely win a
majority government, but are approaching that mark. The New Democrats
trail in third, having regained some of the support lost over the last
few months, while the Greens have hit new polling highs since the last
election.
Trend over time for Canada
| Latest Averages | |
|---|---|
| CON | 36.2% |
| LIB | 31.7% |
| NDP | 16.3% |
| GRN | 7.8% |
| BQ | 4.4% |
| PPC | 2.4% |
The
Conservatives lead in Western Canada and Ontario, enough to put them
ahead of the Liberals in the potential seat count. The Liberals are
still ahead in Quebec and Atlantic Canada, but they have lost support in
both of these regions — particularly on the east coast. So far, the New
Democrats have been unable to take advantage of the Liberals' struggles
and are still on track to lose most or all of their seats in Quebec.
They have improved their position in Ontario, however.
Individual polls
Updated on April 02, 2019 at 10:18am ET
All
national opinion polls used in the Poll Tracker are listed below in
reverse-chronological order. Click on the poll to view the full detailed
report of the poll or the original source.
Scroll columns for more
| Dates | Poll | LIB | CON | NDP | GRN | BQ | PPC | OTH | Sample | Weight | Method | MOE * Footnote |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar. 02 - Mar. 29, 2019 | NEW Nanos Research | 35 | 35 | 17 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1,000 | 10.3 | TEL | +/-3.1% |
| Mar. 25 - Mar. 27, 2019 | Ipsos / Global News | 30 | 40 | 21 | 5 | 4 | 1,002 | 11.3 | NET | +/-3.1% | ||
| Mar. 19 - Mar. 25, 2019 | Mainstreet Research | 35 | 37 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 8,501 | 6.2 | IVR | +/-1.0% |
| Mar. 11 - Mar. 25, 2019 | Angus Reid Institute | 28 | 37 | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 5,807 | 18.3 | NET | +/-1.3% |
| Feb. 23 - Mar. 22, 2019 | Nanos Research | 33 | 35 | 20 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1,000 | 0.0 | TEL | +/-3.1% |
| Mar. 19 - Mar. 20, 2019 | Forum / Toronto Star | 35 | 41 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1,490 | 1.8 | IVR | +/-2.5% |
| Mar. 19 - Mar. 20, 2019 | Léger / Canadian Press | 31 | 37 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1,513 | 10.5 | NET | +/-2.5% |
| Mar. 13 - Mar. 18, 2019 | Abacus / CPAC | 32 | 32 | 17 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1,500 | 7.8 | NET | +/-2.5% |
| Feb. 16 - Mar. 15, 2019 | Nanos Research | 33 | 36 | 20 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1,000 | 0.0 | TEL | +/-3.1% | |
| Mar. 08 - Mar. 10, 2019 | Abacus Data | 32 | 34 | 16 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 896 | 3.8 | NET | +/-3.3% |
Definition of terms
Poll shows the pollster that conducted the
survey and the media outlet (if applicable) that either commissioned the
poll or first reported on it. When available, a link to the pollster's
report is provided.
Weight refers to the weight (out of 100) the poll carries in the aggregation. Weight is determined by the date of the survey, the sample size and the track record of the polling firm.
Dates refers to the field date range of the survey.
Sample refers to the number of total respondents interviewed, including undecideds.
Method refers to the mode of contact of the polls:
Weight refers to the weight (out of 100) the poll carries in the aggregation. Weight is determined by the date of the survey, the sample size and the track record of the polling firm.
Dates refers to the field date range of the survey.
Sample refers to the number of total respondents interviewed, including undecideds.
Method refers to the mode of contact of the polls:
- TEL: Polls conducted via the telephone with live operators conducting the interviews with randomly-dialed respondents.
- IVR: Polls conducted via interactive voice response, in which recorded questions are played for randomly-dialled respondents and answers are given via the telephone keypad.
- NET: Polls conducted via the Internet. In most cases, respondents come from a panel of Canadians recruited in various ways, including over the telephone.
- T/N: Hybrid poll combining online and telephone methodologies.
Margin of Error (MOE) lists the margin of
error (in percentage points) of a corresponding probabilistic sample
equal to the size of the poll's sample size.
Design and Development
Adam Foord, Richard Grasley, Alisa Mamak, Andrew Ryan
CBC News Labs
Adam Foord, Richard Grasley, Alisa Mamak, Andrew Ryan
CBC News Labs
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