David Raymond Amos @DavidRayAmos
Replying to @DavidRayAmos @Kathryn98967631 and 47 others
Methinks many folks agree that the Harper government was every bit as bad and that Trudeau did support Harper's evil Bill C 51 N'esy Pas?
https://davidraymondamos3.blogspot.com/2019/04/with-6-months-to-go-justin-trudeau-is.html
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-trudeau-six-months-1.5102336
With 6 months to go, Justin Trudeau is up against history
7409 Comments
Commenting is now closed for this story.
Rick Guthrie
Let's see -
Election reform - fail
Transparency - fail
Trade - fail
Immigration - fail
Pipelines - fail
Border security - fail
Ethics - fail
Taxes - fail
Environment - fail
Veterans - fail
Phoenix - fail
International diplomacy - fail
National Unity - fail
Remind me again why the Liberals got elected - oh ya, pot.
Richard Sharp
Reply to @Rick Guthrie:
On all of your categories, the Libs have delivered on more election and other promises than not. By a country mile.
In other words, your post is a mistruth, with stronger words to follow..
David R. Amos
Reply to @Richard Sharp: "In other words, your post is a mistruth, with stronger words to follow.."
Methinks folks were not to hold their breath waiting to read stronger words from you N'esy Pas?
Methinks folks were not to hold their breath waiting to read stronger words from you N'esy Pas?
David Butler
Most utterly incompetent majority Cdn government ever. A total embarrassment.
David R. Amos
Reply to @David
Butler: Methinks many folk agree that the Harper government was every
bit as bad and Trudeau did support Harper's evil Bill C 51N'esy Pas?
Garry Walton
This poll tracker garbage is a joke, Justin is toast.
David R. Amos
Reply to @Garry Walton: 'Justin is toast"
Methinks many agree that he could still win a minority N'esy Pas?
Methinks many agree that he could still win a minority N'esy Pas?
Mark Bronatzky
Only the people who believe that they're getting back more than they spend on the carbon tax are voting liberal......and those who believe in Santa claus
David R. Amos
Reply to @Mark
Bronatzky: Methinks about 30 percent will vote liberal, 30 percent will
vote conservative and 10 percent will go NDP or whatever no matter
what. Its the votes of the remaining 30 percent that truly matter and a
lot of them won't make up their minds until polling day N'esy Pas?
Joe Fast
Cannot believe support for the Liberals are anywhere near the numbers mentioned. They have been an absolute failure and spend spend spend just like the former Ontario ones.
Governments need to listen to the people in this country.
We do not have the money anymore thanks to Liberal governments. I would think support for the Liberals should be close to zero.
David R. Amos
Reply to @Joe Fast: "Cannot believe support for the Liberals are anywhere near the numbers mentioned."
Methinks you should keep in mind who published this article N'esy Pas?
Methinks you should keep in mind who published this article N'esy Pas?
Jason Martin
Trudeau has nobody to blame, but himself for the demise of the liberal party.
He promised change, and instead tried to impose his belief system on Canadians and it back-fired.
Add in the fiscal irresponsibility and poof, his legacy has gone up in smoke.
David R. Amos
Reply to @Jason Martin: "Trudeau has nobody to blame, but himself for the demise of the liberal party."
True
True
Daryll Mcbain
If I was a Liberal I would be demanding a new leader, Trudeau is the biggest liability for the Liberal party, he is seen as a phoney.
David R. Amos
Reply to @Daryll Mcbain: "If I was a Liberal I would be demanding a new leader"
Methinks it rather amazing that they have not N'esy Pas?
Methinks it rather amazing that they have not N'esy Pas?
Garry Walton
It will be like the tide coming in and washing all the sunny day sand castles away, the beach will be left with a few pairs of old socks.
Good riddance.
David R. Amos
Reply to @Garry Walton: Methinks you seem a little bitter about something N'esy Pas?
Larry Mackenzie
Even Quebec has turned their back on Trudeau.
David R. Amos
Reply to @Larry Mackenzie: "Even Quebec has turned their back on Trudeau."
Methinks that kind of special if true N'esy Pas?
Methinks that kind of special if true N'esy Pas?
Ken Jackson
The sooner Canada gets rid of Trudeau and McKenna the better of the country will be!
Scotty Davidson
Reply to @Ken Jackson: And Freeland...
Johny Ng
Reply to @Scotty Davidson: and Morneau
David R. Amos
Reply to @Ken Jackson: Methinks Trudeau'a entire cabinet needs to exit stage left N'esy Pas?
Frank Goodwood
Worst PM Canada has ever had. In October he's gone!
David R. Amos
Reply to @Frank Goodwood: Methinks Sir John A. MacDonald has that title in the bag N'esy Pas?
With 6 months to go, Justin Trudeau is up against history
Incumbent governments usually lead in the polls this far out from an election — and struggle when they don't
Half a year is a long time in politics, but when you're trailing in the polls it might not feel like it's long enough.
That's where Justin Trudeau's Liberal government finds itself with six months to go before the fall federal election.
And when past prime ministers have been in this spot before, it generally hasn't ended well for them.
Since the Second World War, when political public opinion polling first started in Canada, the governing party has trailed in the polls six to eight months before the subsequent election nine times.
On two occasions, that party was reduced to a minority government. On five occasions, it was defeated. On only two occasions did it secure a majority.
For parties that led in the polls this far out from election day, it's a much different picture: of the 14 such cases since 1945, the party leading has been defeated just three times.
That's a bad historical precedent for Prime Minister Trudeau.
According to the CBC's Canada Poll Tracker, an aggregation of all publicly available polling data, the Liberals trail the Conservatives by a margin of 2.5 percentage points, with 32.7 per cent against 35.2 per cent for Andrew Scheer's party.
On average, prime ministers who met defeat at the ballot box trailed in the polls by a margin of three points at the six-month mark. Those parties that went on to re-election with a majority government enjoyed an average lead of 12 points at the six-month mark.
Obviously, much can change in six days before an election, let alone six months. Still, the historical record shows it's much better to be ahead than behind, even this far out.
Past prime ministers have successfully overcome wider polling deficits than the one Trudeau faces now. But those were exceptional cases.
Ahead of the 1962 election, John Diefenbaker's Progressive Conservatives were behind Lester Pearson's Liberals by a margin of six points. In the end, Diefenbaker managed to hold on but was sent back to Ottawa with a shaky minority government that met its end within a year.
In early 1988, Brian Mulroney's PCs were behind by seven points. But Mulroney was able to turn the November federal election into a referendum on the free trade agreement with the United States, keeping his party in power in the process.
At the end of 1967, the Liberals were trailing the PCs and their newly installed leader, Robert Stanfield, by nine points. It took a change of leadership of their own for the Liberals to win in 1968 under Pierre Trudeau.
PC
Leader Robert Stanfield shakes the hand of Prime Minister Pierre
Trudeau ahead of the 1968 leaders debate. Stanfield led in the polls in
late 1967 before Trudeau took over the Liberal Party in 1968. (Peter Bregg/Canadian Press)
Pierre
Trudeau barely overcame the odds again after just one term in 1972. He
was narrowly behind Stanfield going into that fall's election and
emerged with a minority government.
That isn't the only example that has some familiar (as well as familial) connections to the current Trudeau government. The Liberals were trailing behind the PCs by a similar margin at the end of 1978, before Joe Clark's short-lived minority government was elected in 1979.
There are a few exceptions on the other side of the ledger, too. Louis St-Laurent lost despite a 17-point lead in 1957 after 22 years of Liberal government, Paul Martin was ahead by 10 points in 2005 before he lost his lead to the Conservatives over the course of the 2005-06 campaign. And Stephen Harper was narrowly ahead in 2015 at the six-month mark, though that was due to the opposition vote being divided between Trudeau's Liberals and Tom Mulcair's New Democrats.
Both the Conservatives and the NDP are roughly where those parties tend to be at this stage of the pre-election period.
At just over 35 per cent nationwide, Scheer's party is about even with where past Conservative parties under different leaders have stood with six months to go. Excluding the run-up to the 1997 and 2000 elections — when the right was divided between the PCs and the Reform/Canadian Alliance parties — the Conservatives have averaged 34 per cent support with six months to go before an election.
It's a level of support that can go either way. Clark's party was at 37 per cent at this stage before his defeat in 1980, while Diefenbaker's PCs were also at 37 per cent before he was reduced to a minority government in 1962. Stanfield's party had 35 per cent support at the six-month mark before he held Pierre Trudeau to a minority in 1972, while Harper's Conservatives were at 35 per cent before he was re-elected in 2008.
The NDP's current standing in the polls is very typical for the party this far out from voting day. With 15.3 per cent, Jagmeet Singh's NDP is just slightly below the 16 per cent average the party and its predecessor, the CCF, have managed at this point in election cycles since 1945. It puts Singh right in the middle of the pack of historical NDP performances.
The Liberals' current level of support, however, is atypical. The Liberals have averaged 40 per cent support six months ahead of past elections — but the party's current 33 per cent support puts Trudeau's Liberals in 21st place out of 24 past elections. The only pre-election periods in which the Liberals had lower support than they do today were in 2008, 2011 and 2015 — the last three federal votes.
Of those, the 2011 election was the worst the Liberal Party of Canada has ever experienced. The last one in 2015 saw the Liberals win the most seats they have since 1949.
It's a reminder that history is not always doomed to repeat itself. Looking at where the numbers stand six months before Canadians render their verdict on Trudeau's time in power, and the record of his predecessors in the office, the prime minister must be hoping for a clean break with history.
That's where Justin Trudeau's Liberal government finds itself with six months to go before the fall federal election.
And when past prime ministers have been in this spot before, it generally hasn't ended well for them.
Since the Second World War, when political public opinion polling first started in Canada, the governing party has trailed in the polls six to eight months before the subsequent election nine times.
On two occasions, that party was reduced to a minority government. On five occasions, it was defeated. On only two occasions did it secure a majority.
For parties that led in the polls this far out from election day, it's a much different picture: of the 14 such cases since 1945, the party leading has been defeated just three times.
That's a bad historical precedent for Prime Minister Trudeau.
According to the CBC's Canada Poll Tracker, an aggregation of all publicly available polling data, the Liberals trail the Conservatives by a margin of 2.5 percentage points, with 32.7 per cent against 35.2 per cent for Andrew Scheer's party.
On average, prime ministers who met defeat at the ballot box trailed in the polls by a margin of three points at the six-month mark. Those parties that went on to re-election with a majority government enjoyed an average lead of 12 points at the six-month mark.
Obviously, much can change in six days before an election, let alone six months. Still, the historical record shows it's much better to be ahead than behind, even this far out.
Exceptions that prove the rule
Past prime ministers have successfully overcome wider polling deficits than the one Trudeau faces now. But those were exceptional cases.
Ahead of the 1962 election, John Diefenbaker's Progressive Conservatives were behind Lester Pearson's Liberals by a margin of six points. In the end, Diefenbaker managed to hold on but was sent back to Ottawa with a shaky minority government that met its end within a year.
In early 1988, Brian Mulroney's PCs were behind by seven points. But Mulroney was able to turn the November federal election into a referendum on the free trade agreement with the United States, keeping his party in power in the process.
At the end of 1967, the Liberals were trailing the PCs and their newly installed leader, Robert Stanfield, by nine points. It took a change of leadership of their own for the Liberals to win in 1968 under Pierre Trudeau.
That isn't the only example that has some familiar (as well as familial) connections to the current Trudeau government. The Liberals were trailing behind the PCs by a similar margin at the end of 1978, before Joe Clark's short-lived minority government was elected in 1979.
There are a few exceptions on the other side of the ledger, too. Louis St-Laurent lost despite a 17-point lead in 1957 after 22 years of Liberal government, Paul Martin was ahead by 10 points in 2005 before he lost his lead to the Conservatives over the course of the 2005-06 campaign. And Stephen Harper was narrowly ahead in 2015 at the six-month mark, though that was due to the opposition vote being divided between Trudeau's Liberals and Tom Mulcair's New Democrats.
Scheer, Singh on par with predecessors
Both the Conservatives and the NDP are roughly where those parties tend to be at this stage of the pre-election period.
At just over 35 per cent nationwide, Scheer's party is about even with where past Conservative parties under different leaders have stood with six months to go. Excluding the run-up to the 1997 and 2000 elections — when the right was divided between the PCs and the Reform/Canadian Alliance parties — the Conservatives have averaged 34 per cent support with six months to go before an election.
It's a level of support that can go either way. Clark's party was at 37 per cent at this stage before his defeat in 1980, while Diefenbaker's PCs were also at 37 per cent before he was reduced to a minority government in 1962. Stanfield's party had 35 per cent support at the six-month mark before he held Pierre Trudeau to a minority in 1972, while Harper's Conservatives were at 35 per cent before he was re-elected in 2008.
The NDP's current standing in the polls is very typical for the party this far out from voting day. With 15.3 per cent, Jagmeet Singh's NDP is just slightly below the 16 per cent average the party and its predecessor, the CCF, have managed at this point in election cycles since 1945. It puts Singh right in the middle of the pack of historical NDP performances.
Liberals at their lowest, except for the last three times
The Liberals' current level of support, however, is atypical. The Liberals have averaged 40 per cent support six months ahead of past elections — but the party's current 33 per cent support puts Trudeau's Liberals in 21st place out of 24 past elections. The only pre-election periods in which the Liberals had lower support than they do today were in 2008, 2011 and 2015 — the last three federal votes.
Of those, the 2011 election was the worst the Liberal Party of Canada has ever experienced. The last one in 2015 saw the Liberals win the most seats they have since 1949.
It's a reminder that history is not always doomed to repeat itself. Looking at where the numbers stand six months before Canadians render their verdict on Trudeau's time in power, and the record of his predecessors in the office, the prime minister must be hoping for a clean break with history.
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