Billion-dollar election platforms pose threat to 8-year streak of N.B. budget surpluses
Commitments by all parties reach far beyond official projections of available funding
New Brunswick is on pace to post its eighth straight budget surplus this year.
It's the longest streak in Canada but may be at risk no matter how Monday's election turns out, given the budget-busting election platforms being promoted by the province's three major political parties.
Over the last month, New Brunswick Liberals, Progressive Conservatives and Greens have made commitments to voters for the next four years that total, by their own math, between $1.3 billion and $3.2 billion.
The priciest of those three belongs to the Green Party. Last week, its leader, David Coon, told reporters he had no idea how much of a deficit his party's $3.2 billion in platform commitments will generate if he is called on to form a government after Monday's election and is able to implement everything the party has promised
"It's impossible to say right now until we get into the books and work with the folks in the Department of Finance and Treasury Board and really go through the numbers," said Coon about the potential size of Green Party deficits.
"We'll dive into that right after the election."
New
Brunswick Liberal Leader Susan Holt has pledged to run balanced budgets
in each of the next four years if elected. Her party says its
billion-dollar platform can be paid for with money it believes the PCs
are hiding inside government. (Election pool)
Coon is not pretending his party's platform will be easily affordable. But that's not the case with Liberals and Progressive Conservatives, who have unveiled billion-dollar plans of their own
With limited explanations, both parties have pledged those costs will not generate a deficit if they are elected, despite evidence New Brunswick is entering a period of tightening finances.
Last winter, long-range projections pieced together by the province's Finance Department showed that surpluses in New Brunswick are on a trajectory to narrow to $39 million and $30 million in the first two budgets following this year's election, excluding any election promises.
In describing what that means in his latest budget speech in March, Finance Minister Ernie Steeves warned that financial wiggle room available to the province following several years of record surpluses is rapidly shrinking.
"Revenue is not anticipated to continue the pace of growth seen in recent years, and maintaining spending growth at current levels will not be sustainable over the longer term," he said.
"I must remind New Brunswickers that we must continue to be diligent in managing our finances."
Despite that warning issued from within its own ranks, Progressive Conservatives are proposing in their platform to cut sales tax revenue and increase spending on some health initiatives by a combined $1.7 billion over a full four-year mandate. That includes costs of $763.4 million in the next two budget years.
Economist
Richard Saillant says New Brunswick political parties have been
'twisting themselves in knots' concocting arguments about why their
pricey platforms are affordable. (Nicolas Steinbach/Radio-Canada)
Progressive Conservative Leader Blaine Higgs argues that is affordable in part because cutting taxes will generate new economic activity and help pay for itself.
"We know with the lower HST, we're going to see more purchases of goods here in our province because we're going to be the cheapest province to do business with in Atlantic Canada," Higgs told reporters earlier this month when asked to explain how his party's platform can avoid causing a deficit.
"What we're saying is that, based on a cheaper cost in the province, we're going to increase the growth, increase the purchasing power and the ability for people to invest in our province."
But that argument is in dispute.
Last summer, the Fraser Institute, a conservative think tank, applauded the idea of cutting taxes in New Brunswick but urged the provincial government not to cut the HST because of the minimal effect cutting sales taxes is known to have on boosting economic activity.
"A sales-tax cut may be politically expedient, but it would leave ... low growth and low incomes untouched," wrote the institute's Alex Whalen.
Ernie
Steeves issued official Finance Department projections as part of his
March budget, showing New Brunswick's finances will be tight for the
next two years just as election promises begin to be implemented. (Jacques Poitras/CBC)
New Brunswick economist Richard Saillant said his reading of studies on sales-tax cuts suggests reducing the HST by two percentage points in New Brunswick is likely to generate only enough enhanced economic activity to generate about $14 million per year in new provincial tax revenue to replace the tax reduction of $450 million per year.
"It's minor," said Saillant who reviewed the issue of how much stimulus an HST cut would deliver to New Brunswick's economy for CBC News
"I would say it would pay for a small part of its cost."
The Progressive Conservatives did not respond to a question about other plans it has to balance future budgets, if cutting HST revenue by $450 million per year does not help pay for itself through increased economic activity.
It leaves a budgeting mystery that also hangs over Liberal plans.
The Liberal Party has listed 100 platform commitments with Elections New Brunswick. It has cost estimates for 30 of those, which add up to $1.29 billion to implement over a full mandate, including $510.9 million in the first two years
Liberal Leader Susan Holt has pledged even with spending at that level, her party will "deliver balanced budgets every year of its mandate and continue to pay down the provincial debt." But the party also acknowledges it is not sure how it will accomplish that.
New
Brunswick Green Party Leader David Coon announced plans for more than
$1 billion in health-care funding during the first week of the election
campaign. The Green Party platform is the most expensive being proposed,
at $3.2 billion. (Pool camera)
Liberals have said only that if PCs claim they can cut revenues by $450 million per year and still balance the budget, there must be money available somewhere that Liberals can use to finance their own plans
"Premier Higgs has said he can reduce the HST without impacting the deficit," the party said in a statement explaining its belief that the PC platform shows that a $450-million "surplus surprise" will be waiting for them if they take office.
Saillant said none of the stated balanced-budget plans put forward by the parties are credible as written, and the only way their platforms will work is if current Finance Department estimates of future economic growth prove to be too low.
It is possible that New Brunswick will continue to post budget surpluses in the years after the election, Saillant said, although it will be in spite of explanations the parties have been giving, not because of them.
"Conservatives and Liberals are twisting themselves into knots to explain how they would pay for the deficit, but there is a much more elegant explanation," said Saillant
"In my view, we can expect better growth."
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Son to father: "I'm embarking on a career in crime."
Father replies: "You're going to join the Mob?"
Son replies: "No, I'm going into politics."
David Amos
Reply to Hugh MacDonald
Methinks many French folks would say c'est la même chose N'esy Pas?
David Amos
Reply to David Amos
Polonius said this to his son before he headed out for France
"There, my blessing with thee.
And these few precepts in thy memory
Look thou character. Give thy thoughts no tongue,
Nor any unproportioned thought his act.
Be thou familiar but by no means vulgar.
Those friends thou hast, and their adoption tried,
Grapple them unto thy soul with hoops of steel,
But do not dull thy palm with entertainment
Of each new-hatched, unfledged comrade. Beware
Of entrance to a quarrel, but being in,
Bear ’t that th’ opposèd may beware of thee.
Give every man thy ear but few thy voice.
Take each man’s censure but reserve thy judgment.
Costly thy habit as thy purse can buy,
But not expressed in fancy—rich, not gaudy,
For the apparel oft proclaims the man,
And they in France of the best rank and station
Are of a most select and generous chief in that.
Neither a borrower nor a lender be,
For loan oft loses both itself and friend,
And borrowing dulls the edge of husbandry.
This above all: to thine own self be true,
And it must follow, as the night the day,
Thou canst not then be false to any man.
Farewell. My blessing season this in thee."
Jay Miller
Reply to David Amos
Non - c’est quelque chose de nouveau et de merveilleux - un nouveau demain 🗳️
Reply to Jay Miller
Hilarious . David Coon presents a list that will cost NBers billions . Remember , he promised rapid transit rail between NB cities which alone will be in the billions of dollars . We don't even have rail lines anymore in most of the province . And with rapid transit the old rail beds would be useless anyway . Concrete and steel , nothing less for rapid transit . And he states he'll present the costs AFTER the election !
Then we have Ms. Holt who has costed 30 of her 100 plus promises and already they're already into the billions . She didn't even budget for staffing her promised 30 collaborative clinics . Hang on to your wallets if these 2 get elected .
Oops , forgot , they do have the Mark Carney 2 hour seminar to get an MBA in Finance and Fiscal Management , while skipping the 5 years it would normally take a normal person .
David Amos
Reply to Lou Bell
Everybody knows what the Greens are up to Their leader spilled the beans out of the gate
Marge Timmons
Buying votes is expensive but politicians (of all stripes) are more concerned with being in power than the well being of future generations who have to pay this money back. If they truly cared they would all work to together and compromise. Sadly, instead we are going the same path as our Southern neighbour.
Lou Bell
Reply to Marge Timmons
Anyone paying attention would know that Premier Higgs gave us and all of our young people a much better future to look forward to than the hole the liberals left us in . And now the Liberals and Greens want to go back to denying future generations the life they deserve . Much like the McKenna Liberals did to all those who he gave minimum wage , low paying , no pension , no future call center jobs . And today we're all paying for those he left behind with nothing .
John Montgomery
Reply to Marge Timmons
How long does a kid need to wait to get into an ER? How are they doing in school?
David Amos
Reply to Marge Timmons
Well put
Archie MacDaniel
I'm voting for Faytene. We need more religious leaders in government.
Reply by valmond landry.
57 min ago
amen
Reply by Ronald Miller.
56 min ago
What about Irving, you have not brought them up for a few hours?
Reply by Ronald Miller.
52 min ago
Maybe Holt can ask her for a miracle since that will be needed to fulfill her election promises.
David Amos
Reply to
The awful truth is Faytene will win a seat and Holt could lose to Carlin
valmond landry
higgs was the worse premier we ever had and to make it worse approx. two weeks prior to the election came out on a spending spree by spending anywhere from fifteen to twenty million dollars to demolish the old mill in bathurst instead of having the people responsible for this mess pay for it , he got the tax payers of this province to pay for it and the surplus that he's bragging about mostly coming from the federal the worse thing people could do is to vote for his candidate.
Reply by Lou Bell.
53 min ago
Naw , Gallant and his SANB Liberals tried to take NB taxpayers for 130 million dollars and left ourr Healthcare and Education depts . with bare cupboards . They even paid out 100 million to 2 NB Universities for extra Nursing seats , of which we got not even one . And remember how the " Fab Five " all disappeared rapidly once they were caught in their plan ? They now have a " potpourri " of candidates from several different parties , many who were resoundingly defeated in the last election , including the present leader of the Liberals . Love to see those resumes' !!!
David Amos
Reply to
I have not lost my faith in the folks in Bathurst
Reply by Dan Lee.
6 min ago
well tried ......and give a 100 millions to our welfare b......... to help with his hydro in 2022.........our b...... gets breaks on property taxes................too many to mention by our great leader.......ohhhhh brother
William Murdoch
"I'm in urban Fredericton," Holt said. "It's really progressive people here, highly educated. My riding of Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint-Isidore is a totally different makeup."
David Amos
Reply to
It was a true statement that was not wise to say Need I say prefer the folks in Bathurst?
Reply by Dan Lee.
1 hr ago
it is....Bathurst.....workers.........Fredericton........ tax collectors
Reply by Ronald Miller.
59 min ago
I am sure you would have tried to put the same spin on it had Higgs said the same thing.
Reply by Lou Bell.
53 min ago
She couldn't wait to get outta there fast enough !
Reply by Lou Bell.
47 min ago
It's a city where half it's residents left in the last decade , an area where the Trudeau Liberals , much like the McKenna Liberals did with their call centers , stretched the rules of EI to assure those in the fishing industry could work minimal hours and then draw EI for the rest of the year . Much like the McKenna minimum wage call centers , low wages , no pension , no future ! And we're all paying for it to this day . Those taxes need collected to support all those who the Liberals left behind .
Reply by Dan Lee.
19 min ago
nope worked 10 years in fton.........
Reply by Ronald Miller.
17 min ago
You get caught in your own spin.
Reply by Dan Lee
But they could work........im afraid i cant say the same in fton
Steven Lyons
Running deficits should be illegal because it does the cruelest thing to people. It strips them of their purchasing power just so someone can get elected and receive a lifetime pension and benefits at the cost to those losing their purchasing power.
David Amos
Reply to Steven Lyons
Amen
Hugh MacDonald
The winning party will save the province $millions by not keeping their promises.
David Amos
Reply to Hugh MacDonald
Oh So True
Daniel Henwell
Hilarious. Liberal leader promising balanced budgets? Ba ha ha
David Amos
Reply to Daniel Henwell
How do I get the coffee out of my nose?
Hugh MacDonald
Reply to Daniel Henwell
Like someone on a "balanced diet" - a beer in one hand and a burger in the other.
David Amos
Reply to Hugh MacDonald
I have had my share of nothing burgers and its a good thing I don't drink beer or I would busted flat
These days I have trouble keeping stocked up on peanuts and popcorn and treats for my best friend Bo as we watch the never ending circuses in Fat Fred City and Ottawa and south of the Medicine Line
Buford Wilson
Keep building NB.
Vote Conservative.
Dan Lee
Reply to Buford Wilson
building ? bahahaha
Dan Lee
Reply to Buford Wilson
whats he building ? team spirit ? bahahaha
David Amos
Content Deactivated
Reply to Buford Wilson
Oh quit it some more you now how I love your nonsense
David Amos
Reply to Buford Wilson
Bingo
Lorelei Stott
Reply to Dan Lee
protecting teams, girls teams! back in the day dudes slugging gals was crime now liberals call it sports, vote PC to stop the liberals
I sence fear in the Higgs supporters.
October 21 DON'T Vote For Higgs.
Ralph Skavinsky
Reply to Gary Webber
I am shuddering to think what will happen if Holt wins...she has a track record with Gallants government that is scary...beware folks!
MR Cain
Reply to Ralph Skavinsky
2 balanced budgets?
Dan Lee
Reply to Ralph Skavinsky
hmmm.....she aint the one who lost not 1.....not 2..... but 12 mlas
David Amos
Content Deactivated
Reply to Gary Webber
I sense anger
Lou Bell
Reply to Dan Lee
Sure she did ! Remember how fast the " fab 5 " left the SANB Liberals , all the while Holt was a part of the decision makers ???
Dan Lee
Reply to Lou Bell
errrr....12-5
David Amos
Reply to Dan Lee
Who is losing cabinet ministers?
Robert Brannen
Reply to Ralph Skavinsky
The government which raised the provincial HST by two percentage points which allowed the Higgs government to pay down the provincial debt. You may not have noticed the Mr. Higgs did not mention a possibility of a decrease from five percent to three percent until very recently. I wonder why he would not do that?
Dan Lee
Higgs.........sold my soul to the company store.................
David Amos
Reply to Dan Lee
Everybody knows that
girl dads it is go time ... vote PC
David Amos
Content Deactivated
Reply to Lorelei Stott
Is his name Archie Bunker?
Lorelei Stott
Reply to David Amos
not a name, a position, protector in chief, for their girl's safe space and opportunities in sports
David Amos
Content Deactivated
Reply to Lorelei Stott
You are arguing with a ghost
8 straight years is false, documents clearly show the Gallant-Holt tandem ran deficits in their first 3 years. They were also running one in the 4th year, they delayed some spending and then received some help from JT who made a 1 time transfer for nothing more than a paper surplus, meaning we still added to our debt that year, and the 3 before that. At the end of the Gallant-Holt years NB had the highest net debt per capita. We had the highest net debt as a percentage of GDP at a whopping 42%. That number dropped to 26% in 22-23, it must be lower now since our debt has continued to drop.
David Amos
Reply to Ronald Miller
There is more to that story
Max Ruby
Reply to Ronald Miller
That is why Gallant-Holt implemented the Property Tax Airplanes to fly around NB to inflate property taxes. Roof overhangs, covered porches etc. were counted as living areas. Pics caught paved drives, new roofs etc. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/property-assessment-new-brunswick-pictometry-1.3887926
David Amos
Reply to Max Ruby
Wasn't that rather special?
Ronald Miller
Reply to Max Ruby
It was quite a mess, yet Holt actually has ads bringing up property taxes, and the left brings it up on a regular basis because somehow Higgs controls the housing market and the rates municipalities set their rates at. It is also one of the many excuse the left uses to try to explain our surpluses, always great entertainment.
Ralph Skavinsky
Reply to Ronald Miller
Right on !
David Amos
Reply to Ronald Miller
What about my dispute with Higgy back in 2013 about the pension plans? If folks had listened to me then we would have been debt free over 10 years ago.
I repeated my idea during debates and on TV when I ran in 2015 and 2018 and 2019 and now I am doing so again. Correct?
Pretty clear decision on voting October 21.
DON'T Vote For Higgs.
Ronald Miller
Reply to Gary Webber
If you want to return to the disaster of 14-18, then yes, very clear.
David Amos
Reply to Gary Webber
It was pretty clear to me on June 6th that Carlin is gonna defeat Holt
James Risdon
Reply to Gary Webber
Too late. I've already voted for Conservative candidate Kim Chamberlain, the mayor of Bathurst, for the work she has done in getting the former Smurfit-Stone property cleaned up.
She's already getting results for the community and so I figured she deserved my vote.
Max Ruby
Reply to Gary Webber
Don't Vote For Holt has a better ring to it lol.
David Amos
Reply to Max Ruby
C'est Vrai
Does anyone think that when Susan Holt uttered (allegedly) disparaging remarks about the inhabitants dans la Nord, she made an error that she will never ever recover from?
Jay Miller
Reply to William Murdoch
Which comment? But I have not forgotten what Higgs told the nurses to do if they wanted more money; and the comment by Higgs that teachers tell their students to lie to their parents. I have a couple more if you want to post them!
Jack Bell
Reply to William Murdoch
It wasn't alleged, it happened.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/susan-holt-bathurst-education-comments-1.7346310
"I'm in urban Fredericton," Holt said. "It's really progressive people here, highly educated. My riding of Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint-Isidore is a totally different makeup."
Followed by her saying she feels bad that Bathurst took her insulting remarks as insulting... not bad that she insulted them, just bad that they feel that way.
"I feel bad that my comments were taken in a way as to be perceived as an insult,"
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/holt-feels-bad-bathurst-education-comments-1.7347682
Jack Bell
Reply to Jay Miller
Can you post links
Jay Miller
Reply to Jack Bell
https://tj.news/new-brunswick/new-brunswick-nb-poll-liberals-holt-lead-in-moncton-fredericton-neck-and-neck-in-saint-john
David Amos
Content Deactivated
Reply to William Murdoch
What about Higgy's not so funny story out of the gate?
Reply to Jay Miller
When Higgs said he wouldn't send his own kids to school in NB. That made the teachers, EAs, and administrators feel real nice. That's a lot of voters to tee off. Not to mention the nurses.
MR Cain
Content Deactivated
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/nursing-home-workers-union-higgs-binding-arbitration-1.5082230
That is one; the other is Higgs policy 713 which ensures students will lie to their parents.
Reply to Archie MacDaniel
Actually, what he said was he would be concerned with them going based on a system that people want fixed, yet when Higgs introduced changes, the likes of you complained about that also. Sorry, I know facts annoy you.
Ronald Miller
Reply to Archie MacDaniel
What about what Holt said about the north, or does that not count?
Reply to Jay Miller
Hearsay to me unless you provide direct quotes not taken out of context.
Jack Bell
Reply to Jay Miller
There is nothing in your link about nurses or students to lying to their parents.
David Amos
Reply to William Murdoch
I always do
Reply to David Amos
And what Poll would that be? Just for those that never heard that before.
David Amos
Reply to William Murdoch
The one on the day where Higgy's name and mine are on the same ballots that are counted
Reply to David Amos
Election Day
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