The six, or nine, or 14 ridings that may determine the election
Every race is important but these key contests may decide which party governs New Brunswick
In a close election, every vote counts and every riding is important.
But when party campaign strategists look at a map of New Brunswick's 49 constituencies, they focus on some more than others.
For the Progressive Conservatives, under Blaine Higgs, to hold on to power — or for Susan Holt's Liberals to succeed in ousting them — a handful of key races are must-wins, many of them in the three largest cities.
The Green Party's clout in the next legislature is also in play.
The uncertainty in those pivotal ridings was evident among voters late last week in Rockwood Park in Saint John, a city with at least two pivotal ridings.
"I'm not entirely decided," Paddy Huizinga said.
"It used to be there wasn't that big of difference between one party and the other, and now there is."
Madison Kelson said her riding of Saint John Harbour seemed "pretty close."
Robert Collette said one candidate at his door "seemed like a nice fella, but because of the party leader, I told the gentlemen, 'If it wasn't for the party leader, I'd probably vote for you.'"
A party needs to win 25 seats to have a majority government.
Heading into the campaign, the PCs held — thanks to departures and defections — 25 seats, compared to 16 for the Liberals and three for the Greens. There was one independent MLA and four seats were vacant.
Here are six key ridings that, if they all go Liberal, could deprive the PCs of that majority.
Fredericton South-Silverwood
This new riding includes part of the former Fredericton South, which Green Leader David Coon won in 2020, and part of Fredericton West-Hanwell, where there is a strong PC voting history.
Liberal Leader Susan Holt is on the ballot here and is not a shoe-in. Holt lost badly to Coon in Fredericton South in 2018, and in 2020 the PCs had more votes within the contours of the new riding.
Saint John Harbour
This constituency in the Port City's urban core has swung between PCs and Liberals recently, sometimes by narrow margins.
Arlene Dunn won it comfortably for the PCs in 2020, but the race was decided by just 10 votes in 2018, 71 votes in 2014 and seven votes in 2010.
If Liberal candidate David Hickey, a city councillor, can't win, it doesn't bode well for his party provincially.
Saint John Portland-Simonds
The area was represented for 25 years by PC MLA Trevor Holder, one of six elected members who rebelled against Blaine Higgs last year over Policy 713 and his leadership style.
Holder opted not to run again.
Whether the turmoil costs Higgs this seat — or others — is up to voters.
The Liberal candidate also has a history with Higgs: Dr. John Dornan was fired by the premier from his position as Horizon Health CEO. He later won a wrongful dismissal lawsuit against the province.
Moncton East
Moncton is another make-or-break area for the election.
Moncton East has been redrawn since the last election, when PC candidate Daniel Allain won it and became the only francophone member of Higgs's caucus for two years.
Without Allain on the ballot, the Liberals see an opportunity to flip a riding from the PCs.
Miramichi Bay-Neguac
The Liberals won here easily in 2020, but Réjean Savoie picked it up for the PCs in a 2022 byelection and became the second francophone PC MLA and cabinet minister in the Higgs government.
The Liberals hope to win it back.
Champdoré-Irishtown
This is a new riding carved out of parts of the old Moncton East riding and some areas that were previously in Kent South.
There is a Liberal voting history here so the party sees this as a potential gain.
Other ridings that may be pivotal
The PCs would be reduced to 24 seats if the Liberals sweep all six of those constituencies — one short of a majority.
But the Liberals would rather have a majority and not rely on the Green Party to pass budgets and legislation.
In Fredericton North and Miramichi East, they believe there's a chance they can defeat PC candidates Jill Green and Michelle Conroy.
And they are hoping that former federal PC MP John Herron, running as a Liberal, will defeat PC candidate Faytene Grasseschi in Hampton-Fundy-St. Martins.
Many longtime PCs who opposed Grasseschi's candidacy are backing Herron.
Winning those three additional seats would give the Liberals a 25-seat majority — assuming nothing else changes.
PC pickup possibilities
The Progressive Conservatives are generally playing defence in this election, but there are some races where they hope to upset seemingly solid Liberal incumbents.
In Bathurst, in a seat that has been Liberal for almost a century, Mayor Kim Chamberlain is running for the PCs.
She may be their best shot of gaining a seat in the predominantly francophone north, though Liberal René Legacy's high profile — and likely cabinet role — make it a tough climb.
And in Moncton Centre, Liberal incumbent Rob McKee is confronting newly redrawn riding boundaries.
It now takes in parts of the former Moncton Southwest riding that were solidly PC in 2020.
Greens under pressure
The election isn't a cakewalk for the three Green candidates running for re-election, either.
Two in particular are facing new challenges.
Coon's Fredericton South riding was cut in two by the electoral boundary redistricting.
He is running in Fredericton Lincoln, a fusion of parts of his old riding, where he won handily last time, and new areas which have voted strongly PC in recent elections.
Kevin Arseneau, another Green MLA in the last legislature, is facing a challenge in Kent North from Pat Finnigan, a well-liked former two-term federal Liberal MP.
A win by Finnigan wouldn't change the overall math for the PCs but it could be the difference between a Liberal majority or minority.
The same goes for Tracadie, which the Greens hope to grab from the Liberals.
Green candidate Serge Brideau, the well-known lead singer for the Acadian rock group Les Hôtesses d'Hilaire, won 35.4 per cent of the vote in the 2023 byelection in Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-St. Isidore, which Holt won.
This time he is running in Tracadie against two-term Liberal Keith Chiasson.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
David Amos
Methinks the all knowing political scientists have decided that I don't have a prayer in Quispamsis against Higgy et al N'esy Pas?
Ralph Skavinsky
Reply to David Amos
David itmight t be best to go with a known party then try to make what you feel are the necessary adjustments to better rep your constituency
David Amos
Reply to Ralph Skavinsky
I would never belong to any party that would have me for a member
Ralph Skavinsky
Reply to David Amos
Either that or go with the new Consensus Party..now there I feel is the better thought.
David Amos
Reply to Ralph Skavinsky
Surely you jest
Ralph Skavinsky
Reply to David Amos
Then you are just spinning your wheels David with no progress on the horizon..too bad really.
David Amos
Reply to Ralph Skavinsky
Are you sure about that?
Ralph Skavinsky
Reply to David Amos
Give me a hint to which you speak,please kind sir.
David Amos
Reply to Ralph Skavinsky
How can a Consensus Party have a leader?
Ralph Skavinsky
Reply to David Amos
Read how it's done in the NWT for one jurisdiction. It's all straight forward David..Google it!
David Amos
Reply to Ralph Skavinsky
Why did Higgy's minions invite me to sue the government again then blink and finally give me a Health Care Card?
David Amos
Reply to Ralph Skavinsky
I talked to the dudes in NWT 20 years ago that is why I did not sue them in 2015
Ralph Skavinsky
Reply to David Amos
It seems you have an ongoing axe to grind. I of course am not privy to your problem with the government. But apparently the " card" issue must have been rectified so it should be all good.
Ralph Skavinsky
Reply to David Amos
Sorry David...I can't follow your argument(s )..have a good day!
David Amos
Reply to Ralph Skavinsky
Perhaps you should Google me and the ERRE Committee and listen to what I said about the NWT when they visited Fat Fred City just before Thanksgiving in 2016
David Amos
Reply to Ralph Skavinsky
They have yet to give me my money back
Ralph Skavinsky
Reply to David Amos
I have errands to do right now.. will try to fathom my way thru it all later.
David Amos
Reply to Ralph Skavinsky
You are the one who picked this fight
Ralph Skavinsky
Reply to David Amos
I picked a fight..lol..nope. Just trying to help to understand your problem(s) ...the last thing I do is pick a fight...lol..you really don't know me and that's probably good...later gotta run
David Wilson
Reply to David Amos
What's with the "Methinks" and "N'esy Pas" ?
David Amos
Reply to Ralph Skavinsky
I am very busy too because this is the last day for submissions to the public inquiry into foreign interference
David Amos
Reply to David Wilson
As your friends and my opponents I have explained a bunch of times over the years
David Amos
Reply to Ralph Skavinsky
Who said I wanted to know you? Is that even your real name?
James Risdon
Reply to David Wilson
Good question.
David Amos
Reply to James Risdon
Why not ask your former Party Leader?
David Amos
Reply to David Amos
Well I got the submission in on time and their Senior Communications Advisor affirmed it
Content Deactivated
William Murdoch
Reply to Ronald Miller
Fortunately few read opinion disguised as reporting at this site. Otherwise the call for The Mother Corp to fold would be overwhelming.
Ronald Miller
Reply to William Murdoch
There was actually an article on the Canada board either today or yesterday bringing up talk about removing funding, it continues to gather steam. But you are correct, the Holt fanbase gobbles it up, most others use it for entertainment purposes only.
fanbase gobbles it up, most others use it for entertainment purposes only.
David Amos
Reply to William Murdoch
Need I say that I always enjoyed the "Spin Reduxit" ?
William Murdoch
Reply to David Amos
Some of us sure do.
Jay Miller
Reply to Ronald Miller
I want a NB where there is social harmony, and where everyone is respected regardless of sexual orientation, ethnic origin and first language; a NB where the environment is a major preoccupation; a NB where it is safe to drive on highways during all 4 seasons; a NB I can call home / mon chez-moi; a NB where it feels good to wake-up and to go to sleep! A NB where there is no North, South, East or West - we are all one.
Content Deactivated
If NBers ever want to see development of our rich natural resources they better avoid the Green / Liberal coalition . Billions of dollars ( actually trillions ) in resources just laying in the ground waiting to be developed . The false narrative from the Liberals they've been telling us for years should come to an end when the Liberals , Federally and Provincially , are ousted . Thousands of high paying jobs , instead of the Liberals shortcut minimum weeks to EI for many . A plan for no money , no pension , and no future .
Lou Bell
Reply to Lou Bell
Much like what the McKenna Liberals gave NB . Lowpaying call center jobs , low pay , no pension , no future . And today we're all paying for what they did .
David Amos
Reply to Lou Bell
How many votes will I get running against Higgy?
Lou Bell
Content Deactivated
Remember how the press did all those stories on how upset so many NBers were over Bill 713 ? Remember how the press did all those stories on how there was some kind of coverup with the Public employees penions ? Remember how they wrote all the stories on MLA's leaving the Conservatives , the same people the Greens and Liberals were calling incompetent ? Remember when the riding presidents in the francophone ridings claimed there was enough support to oust Higgs from the leadership of the PC Party ? And so many other things that were written about Higgs and things he was getting done , stating all NBers were against them . And then eventually it was found that most NBers actually supported Higgs and most all of the changes he was making . And it's surely funny we've heard nothing from the press about all the people , most all who've been resoundingly defeated while running for other parties , that the Liberals have running for them . It's like a Neil Simon song , " where have all the Liberals gone ? Long time passing , where have all the Liberals gone ... .. .. . . . .. " !
David Amos
Reply to Lou Bell
I remember how they slandered Faytene forever and a day but June 6th took the cake when Carlin stepped up to the plate
James Risdon
Voters in Bathurst can see the actual work being done to clean up the former Smurfit-Stone property - a result of Mayor Kim Chamberlain, the Conservative candidate, taking action on that file.
If that's what she can do for Bathurst as mayor, I'm pretty sure voters here will want to see what she can do for the community as a cabinet minister in Premier Blaine Higgs' next government.
David Amos
Reply to James Risdon
Higgy needs to talk to his mayor buddy in Heron Bay as well
"In casting the deciding vote, Mayor Pelletier said it will benefit the town to see the project through.
“I am doing this for the economic future of our town,” he said. “We need more good-paying jobs.”
Lou Bell
Reply to David Amos
With Higgs in power , I'd expect he'll be on Prime Minister Poilievre to put NB on the resource development map quite rapidly . Monthly billion dollar trade deficits courtesy of the Trudeau Liberals certainly has put Canada in a deep whole and NB can play a huge part in turning things around ! Thousands of high paying jobs for our growing population will certainly be welcome news , keeping our young people here in the province and providing a future for them here . No more exporting our young people elsewhere .
Buford Wilson
The expression on Susan's face speaks volumes.
David Amos
Reply to Buford Wilson
C'est Vrai
Lou Bell
Reply to Buford Wilson
She's in way over her head .
Bill Smith
You say Miramichi baie neguac, is one to watch. Why don't you report the facts? The false, liberal candidate running was the former president of the federal conservative party in Miramichi. Will he also jump the fence, if he gets elected? Maybe ask him?
David Amos
Reply to Bill Smith
Interesting
Jake Newman
Holt will be lucky to win her own seat.
David Amos
Reply to Jake Newman
Its not her seat
William Murdoch
Will the Green Leader join with The Liberals to make a Majority. I doubt that. Between the two parties their win count won't even add up to enough.
David Amos
Reply to William Murdoch
It would not be wise to bet the farm on that opinion
William Murdoch
Max The Tax.
Vote Holt.
Dan Lee
Reply to William Murdoch
empty your pockets
Vote Higgs
William Murdoch
Reply to Dan Lee
How so?
David Amos
Reply to Dan Lee
Methinks many agree that we must "Stand and Deliver" to whatever gang of crooks oversee us N'ey Pas?
Rosco holt
Many NBers want Higgs gone.
William Murdoch
Reply to Rosco holt
Perhaps many want him to stay.
David Amos
Reply to William Murdoch
Higgy played a song about that question a couple of years ago
William Murdoch
Reply to David Amos
How true. And wouldn't you know it - he stayed.
William Murdoch
So when Susan Holt loses her riding will she then still be able to stay on as Leader of The Opposition?
David Amos
Reply to William Murdoch
Yup Vickers had no seat
William Murdoch
Reply to David Amos
Well I for one think that she will make an excellent non winner Leader for The Liberals
David Amos
Reply to William Murdoch
Me too
Harold Reagan
Does the term "axe the facts" apply in N.B. also?
David Amos
Reply to Harold Reagan
It always has
William Murdoch
Content Deactivated
David Amos
Reply to William Murdoch
Methinks many agree that he will win a minority and then the Greens and the leaderless Red Coats will try to take control of the mandate N'esy Pas?
Reply to William Murdoch
Why is that important to you ? Who would benefit from this ?
William Murdoch
Reply to David Amos
Could be.
William Murdoch
Reply to Creep Sheep aka Stephen Sonnier
Constant is change. Four more years of constant steady leadership from the current sitting Premier when he wins Majority again
William Murdoch
The Liberals apparently made a major mistake going with the Leader they chose.
https://338canada.com/nb/
David Amos
Reply to William Murdoch
Yup
Jay Miller
Reply to William Murdoch
These are as of Oct 4 (today’s date is Oct 16) - There should be polling numbers as of Oct 11 - but 338Canada has not posted them because the Libs will form the next Majority Government
Albalita Rose
Reply to Jay Miller
Sure that's it.....chuckle
Harold Reagan
Reply to Albalita Rose
Again? Axe the facts?
Jos Allaire
Reply to William Murdoch
The major mistake was made way back when the Conservatives went with the leader they chose.
Gabriel Boucher
Reply to William Murdoch
If choosing Holt was a mistake, then why is Higgs struggling at the polls? It should be a clear victory if that was the case. Higgs has a hard time winning in his best case scenario. That's a sign of a weak government.
William Murdoch
Reply to Gabriel Boucher
Another Majority on tap for Higgs.
William Murdoch
Reply to Jos Allaire
See the aggregate as shown on 338.
Rosco holt
Reply to Jos Allaire
Higgs wasn't chosen, they "rigged"(change venue at the last moment) the convention to let Higgs win. Many long time conservatives quit after words.
ng time conservatives quit after words.
William Murdoch
Reply to Rosco holt
Same surname. Next.
Dianne MacPherson
Reply to Rosco holt
Higgs did not win the Leadership easily.
The GRASSROOTS of the PC Party won
the Leadership for him !!
Many people today are taking comedians seriously and politicians as jokes.
David Amos
Reply to Hugh MacDonald
Welcome to the circus
William Murdoch
338 latest projection
Susan Holt will lose her seat.
Probable Progressive Conservative Majority.
Liberals to win the popular vote - as if the popular vote has ever mattered before.
Jay Miller
Reply to William Murdoch
There should be polling numbers as of Oct 11 - but 338Canada has not posted them because the Libs will form the next Majority Government
David Amos
Reply to William Murdoch
I concur
Gabriel Boucher
Reply to William Murdoch
According to the polls that you've posted, Higgs would not have enough seats to form government without a coalition with another party. The Greens have already said that they would not support another Cons government. Higgs loses both in seats and popular votes.
another Cons government. Higgs loses both in seats and popular votes.
William Murdoch
Reply to Gabriel Boucher
Check the graph result showing PCs ahead of Liberals so far as Majority is concerned.
Content Deactivated
William Murdoch
Reply to Ronald Miller
Fortunately few read opinion disguised as reporting at this site. Otherwise the call for The Mother Corp to fold would be overwhelming.
Ronald Miller
Reply to William Murdoch
There was actually an article on the Canada board either today or yesterday bringing up talk about removing funding, it continues to gather steam. But you are correct, the Holt fanbase gobbles it up, most others use it for entertainment purposes only.
fanbase gobbles it up, most others use it for entertainment purposes only.
David Amos
Reply to William Murdoch
Need I say that I always enjoyed the "Spin Reduxit" ?
William Murdoch
Reply to David Amos
Some of us sure do.
Jay Miller
Reply to Ronald Miller
I want a NB where there is social harmony, and where everyone is respected regardless of sexual orientation, ethnic origin and first language; a NB where the environment is a major preoccupation; a NB where it is safe to drive on highways during all 4 seasons; a NB I can call home / mon chez-moi; a NB where it feels good to wake-up and to go to sleep! A NB where there is no North, South, East or West - we are all one.
Daniel Franklin
Driving around Saint John today at lunch, I was pleasantly surprised by the lack of PC signs on lawns I was seeing compared to the other parties.
David Amos
Reply to Daniel Franklin
Methinks you missed a few important neighbourhoods N'esy Pas?
Daniel Franklin
Reply to David Amos
I'm not sure David, my route took me from Uptown to over West and then back to the industrial park. I saw 2 or 3 PC signs and double digits of the other 2. Too bad there are two parties on the left or Higgie wouldn't stand a fighting chance.
David Amos
Reply to Daniel Franklin
You must know that I am running against Higgy and I have been told there are lots of PC signs in certain areas
I already voted. Wrote in Ronald Miller
Archie MacDaniel
Reply to Archie MacDaniel
NB needs someone with all the answers
Dan Lee
Reply to Archie MacDaniel
lol......right or wrong.......
Ronald Miller
Reply to Archie MacDaniel
Thank you, but do you have time for me with all the other people you obsess over? Irving, Irving, Irving, don't forget about them, just kidding, I know you didn't.
David Amos
Reply to Dan Lee
Ditto
I've already sent in my mail in ballots, I'm voting for the party that believes in science
William Murdoch
Reply to Arnold Duershere
Would that be The Science supporting the jabs? Don't stop transmission, Don't protect from contracting, and never in fact treated anything.
David Amos
Reply to William Murdoch
Methinks all the parties supported the jabs except one new one N'esy Pas??
In every election I try to find some humorous incident.
Horsman with Carrs in tow - LOL
Archie MacDaniel
Reply to William Murdoch
Horsman with Mary Wilson holding the cat litter litter box behind him.
David Amos
Content Deactivated
Reply to Archie MacDaniel
Northrup following Holt around like a puppy made my day
David Amos
Reply to Archie MacDaniel
Oh My My
No comments:
Post a Comment