Defeated PC Party braces for internal battle over direction, leadership
Party members divided over what went wrong in campaign, how to choose successor to Blaine Higgs
Two years ago, longtime Progressive Conservative supporter Andrew Dawson warned party members that growing internal discontent was jeopardizing voter support.
The "check engine" light was on, Dawson said when he ran for the position of party president at the PC annual general meeting in November 2022.
"A vote for me is a vote to pull over and look under the hood," Dawson said. But he lost the race to Fredericton lawyer Erika Hachey.
Fast forward two years and Dawson says what he was warning about — leader Blaine Higgs's indifference to how grassroots party members felt — played a major role in his government's defeat in last week's election.
"The car's broke down on the side of the road," Dawson said. "Now the problems are bigger than if we'd maybe stopped to check them."
Out of power and with their lowest seat count since the 1995 election, the PCs are preparing for a major reckoning over what went wrong and how to recover in time for the next campaign in 2028.
"We did deviate maybe more toward the conservative side over the last year or so, and I'd like to see us get back to more progressive so I'm more comfortable in the party," cabinet minister Jill Green told CBC's Information Morning Fredericton.
Green, the government's housing minister, was defeated last week in Fredericton North.
What direction the 16 elected PC MLAs will take when the legislature convenes next month remains to be seen.
There's been no public indication of a caucus meeting since the election.
The group is dominated by MLAs who stayed loyal to Premier Blaine Higgs while others rebelled. But Higgs himself lost his seat and won't be in the legislature to lead them.
"There's a pretty good crew left and I think they're going to do a good job holding the government accountable," Green said.
Meanwhile, major battles are looming outside the legislature in the post-Higgs era.
"That chapter of the history of the Progressive Conservative Party is over, and I think that now it's time to flip the page and start a new chapter," said François Robichaud, the president of the PC riding association in Shippagan-Les-Îles.
François Robichaud, who ran for the PCs in Shippagan-Les-Îles, is president of the local riding association. (Radio-Canada)
Dawson said he plans to run again for party president at a PC annual general meeting scheduled for Nov. 9.
He said his priority will be to give members more of a say, including in policy development — something that was lacking with Higgs as leader.
"He had attributes that allowed him to make decisions that needed to be made, but there's an aspect to governing and to our party system that I don't think is irrelevant yet, which is there's a party behind the elected members," Dawson said.
"What also matters is having a group of people distributed across the province, in every community, who believe in the party and who have contributed to the policies … and are back home in their communities spreading the word back.
"I don't think we had that this time."
One decision for the membership will be the rules for electing the next leader.
Higgs won the leadership in 2016 under a one-member, one-vote system.
But some members want a weighted voting system like the provincial Liberals use.
Under that system, each riding has 100 points up for grabs, and a candidate's share of those points in each riding is based on how many votes they got from members in those ridings.
It creates an incentive for a leadership candidate to look for support everywhere rather than just in areas where the party has the most members.
"If there's a [potential] leader who's from Woodstock who decides to put their name forward, that person will need to speak to members from Shippagan, from Tracadie, from Bathurst," Robichaud said.
He said he didn't think Higgs would have won in 2016 if weighted voting had been in place.
Party member Corben Parker submitted a motion for that rule change to be debated at next month's meeting.
Parker would not agree to an interview but said the party has pushed back the debate on his motion to another meeting planned for next March.
Dawson said he opposes the change.
The voting procedure in place may give some potential candidates an advantage, though it's not clear yet who may run for leader.
"I think it's way too early to make those types of decisions right now," former PC MLA and minister Jeff Carr said during CBC's election-night broadcast.
Carr was shuffled out of cabinet in June 2023 after voting against Higgs on Policy 713.
Jeff Carr, a former PC cabinet minister, said on election night it was too early to be thinking about the party's next leader. (Jacques Poitras/CBC)
His colleague Daniel Allain, also removed the same day, posted last week that Tories should "take the time to properly reflect, to heal and then focus towards rebuilding" the party so it appeals to all New Brunswickers.
But he said on a Radio-Canada panel he had not spoken to anyone about running for leader.
Another former minister, Mike Holland, said on election night he was "with like-minded PCs and we are discussing that subject right now. More will come in the near future."
In 2022 former People's Alliance leader Kris Austin, who had recently joined the PCs, wouldn't rule out a future leadership bid.
"I leave all options on the table," he said. "I don't want to box myself in one way or the other."
Austin did not respond to an interview request this week.
Green said she had no plans to run but had been encouraged to do so.
"I never say never. … Maybe we need several female premiers, one after the other."
Other differences within the party are already spilling out publicly.
On election night, Hachey posted to social media to accuse two party members, who had wanted to remove Higgs as leader, of calling her late at night to make profane comments.
Two former PC caucus colleagues also got into a heated argument about the election defeat.
Ross Wetmore, one of six MLAs who voted against Higgs on Policy 713 last June, posted on Facebook that "all it would have taken" to avoid last year's split was for Higgs to talk to them.
A re-elected colleague, Sherry Wilson, accused him of being bitter over losing his cabinet position in 2020.
That led to an exchange in which Wilson repeated her claim from a post on Truth and Reconciliation Day suggesting a parallel between the "parental rights" debate over Policy 713 and the suffering of Indigenous children at residential schools.
PC
Sherry Wilson, who kept her seat on Oct. 21, publicly argued with
former PC cabinet minister Ross Wetmore on social media after the
election. (Alix Villeneuve/Radio-Canada)
She removed the post the next morning, and Higgs said he disagreed with it, but on Facebook last week she said it was the "Liberal media" who made the comparison.
Green said last week that one reason the party lost the election was that "we chose some battles that the public didn't really want us to choose," a reference to Policy 713.
"I would never have chosen that battle."
Dawson said while there must be room for debate within the party, those who rebelled against Higgs — including those who sat out the election — were as responsible for the defeat as the premier himself.
Higgs, he said, "made the right decision on Policy 713, but I think he should have shut up about it and kept on going. I think he lived there a little bit."
Dawson argued there's still a need for a fiscally conservative political party to balance other parties too far to the left, "but maybe it doesn't have to be so nasty."
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
With files from Information Morning Fredericton
David Amos
Welcome to the latest circus
Lyr Williamson
The whooping crane is not the most endangered animal in Canada.
The is rapidly declining, and may be extinct on this continent in the next decade.
james bolt
Reply to Lyr Williamson
Maga has replaced you
David Amos
IMHO Moderate conservatives went the way of the Dodo Bird when Right Honourable R.B. Bennett quit in disgust and went off to "Not So Merry" Old England
Lyr Williamson
Moderate, centre-right politicians are win retreat from coast to coast.
And federally.
Walter Vrbetic
Reply to Lyr Williamson
I miss old school Progressive Conservatives!
David Amos
Reply to Walter Vrbetic
Me too
An apology and people stepping down over COVID shot mandates is needed.
Jack Bell
Reply to Frank Blacklock
I think the Frozen has a song about that.
... ah yes, here it is. "Let It Go"
Frank Blacklock
Reply to Jack Bell
Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it
Jack Bell
Reply to Frank Blacklock
Exactly, so why didn't you learn from the Spanish flu?
David Amos
Reply to Jack Bell
Perhaps you should look into the Spanish flu
Shevek Anarres
Meanwhile the BC Conservatives show their true colours...
Eric Hamilton
Reply to Shevek Anarres
You forgot to finish your comment.
David Amos
Reply to Eric Hamilton
He is never done
Maybe going after the most vulnerable kids was a mistake...
Shevek Anarres
Reply to Shevek Anarres
Yes, Higgs is.
Maybe don't let the church run your party? Just a thought.
Ronald Miller
Reply to John Montgomery
How was the church leading the party?
Reply to Ronald Miller
Feelings
I believe Holt can win the next election if she strays from the usual Liberal tax and spend mantra. She also needs to stay out of the way of the progress this province has enjoyed under Higgs. One could not go much of anywhere in this province without seeing things moving forward, road work was everywhere, annoying but necessary, infrastructure work was rampant from the Harbour Bridge in SJ, new jail for Grand Lake area, new courthouse in F'ton, new border bridge in Edmundston, mill finally being torn down in Bathurst, businesses are booming from all corners of NB. Our employment is better than the national average and our inflation is under 1%, beating out the national average of 1.6, that makes things more affordable, take note Holt. Good to see NB leading on the metrics people want to be leading on, it has been decades since that happened.
Reply to Ronald Miller
Needs to fix the nuclear plant.
It's simple -- very few voters have REAL faith in either party (Conservatives or Liberals) so the "pendulum" swings back and forth as each party as their turn "at bat".
The hope is that eventually voters will be rewarded with a competent government -- unfortunately that hasn't happened for decades!
Reply to Ronald Miller
Sure. Why don't you post the credible sources of your so-called sentiment? It is because there are none and nobody outside NB cares about that election or Blaine Higgs. Just you and a couple of other Horton's regulars.
If you actually read new sources outside of this site you might actually understand there is a world outside of the NB borders. You keep lapping up what JP feeds as you as the be all and end all of news.
Reply to Ronald Miller
doesn't matter what people outside think, NB voters made the call.
Reply to Ronald Miller
By saying things like "most people," you're making it sound like no one wanted this. Thankfully, we live in a democracy and after voting night we now know what most people actually wanted.
I am giving NBers the benefit of the doubt that they feared Higgs' moving too far right than Holt's ability to govern properly. I hope she proves everyone wrong, supporters and doubters. She will need to change her ways from the Gallant days.
Reply to Ronald Miller
You mean the overwhelming sentiment amongst right wing conservatives.
The PCs need to get a more center leader, I think someone along the Daniel Allain lines would be a great choice. If the :Liberals continue to their usual track record then the PCs would be a shoe in next election. Holt is not off to a great start, broken promises before even taking office.
Reply to Ronald Miller
Just admit Higgs lost and Holt won because voters decided. Not only you, not only me. And what will happen if Holt is there for 8 years? The world will end?
As far as outside news, Holt’s election was seen as a breath of fresh air to NB.
If Holt is here for 8 years it means she changed her old/Liberal ways and I would have no problem with that.
Bobby Richards
Reply to Ronald Miller
I'm going to the AGM. You going?
Is your mom driving you?
Reply to Ronald Miller
No. She passed away from cancer in March.
Higgs has ruined the PC party.
Matt Steele and Ronnie Miller, nows yer chance!
Bobby Richards
Reply to Alison Jackson
Don't forget Lou Bell
The one member-one vote system of selecting a leader is what resulted in the choice of Higgs the last time otherwise he never would have been leader . Moving to a ranked ballot system is the best way to go to reflect all of the party members views no matter where they live .
Dianne MacPherson
Reply to Eugene Peabody
Every Party Member (no matter where
they live) cast their vote for Higgs.
A card carrying Member attends the Convention
and votes their conscience.......
won't expect anything different this time.
Send Sherry Wilson to Florida. Then proceed.
Reply to danny rugg
You first.
Reply to danny rugg
I feel bad for her riding. It is so solidly conservative that the PCs never bother to spend resources on it and neither will the liberals since they have no chance to win it.
Reply to Marc Andre
Don't think it is really Conservative as much as lack of education and peer pressure to fit in. Try having a decent conversation about the facts in this riding and it goes to Trump land. and fox news.
Reply to buster jones
Well said. iv seen it first hand
Reply to buster jones
That could very well be , but either way there's no question how that riding has voted and will continue to vote.
Higgs revealed his true values and the people of NB rejected it. If the PC party wants to have a chance of governing again it would be wise to learn lessons from this election and rid itself of people like Austin, Outhouse, Faytene, Wilson etc al.
Reply to Howard Otoole
Exactly. NB has shown it is not interested in fanatics that allow their beliefs to influence policy.
Reply to Howard Otoole
I wonder when they will recognize that the same thing is now happening to the federal party ? That leadership is just a imitation of Trump methods and style which is pushed by the social media platforms like Tic-Toc , Twitter, Instagram and others . I long for a return to the way politics used to be when people could disagree on direction but still work for the good of the country instead of spouting hate for someone who disagrees with them .
Reply to Howard Otoole
Right, the divider's, something we don't need in this province ,
Reply to Howard Otoole
you got that right! 1000%
Gonna be a long rebuild. Something like Leafs and Habs.
Higgs lost me there.....Austin and Conroy.........
Reply to Louis Leblanc
I'd far agree with Austin as a Candidate
for Leadership instead of what I
SUSPECT is waiting in the background !!
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