Thursday 29 October 2020

Presidential race shaping up to be tight in northern Maine

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Reply to @Lou Bell: Methinks everybody knows that you know I am not a dual citizen but you keep on lying about it anyway for blatantly obvious reasons N'esy Pas?
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Presidential race shaping up to be tight in northern Maine

Both Republicans and Democrats see the region as important to a winning campaign

 
Jacques Poitras · CBC News · Posted: Oct 29, 2020 6:00 AM AT
 
 

U.S. President Donald Trump, left, and former Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden. (Nicholas Kamm/AFP/Getty Images, Alex Wong/Getty Images)

Jane Johnson knows what many of her Canadian neighbours across the river think of Donald Trump.

But she voted for him anyway.

Johnson, whose house in Forest City, Maine, is about 300 metres from the bridge across the St. Croix River to New Brunswick, says the U.S. president appeals to the strong leave-us-alone sentiment in her part of the state. 

"We all think independently because we have different interests perhaps than the rest of the state," she says. "We value our freedom and our independence. We don't want to be coerced. I think we're an extremely independent group."

Trump's outsider status is endearing to voters like that, including Johnson.

 

Jane Johnson of Forest City, Maine, says she and others in that part of the state are supporting Donald Trump because he appeals to their independent nature. (Jacques Poitras/CBC)
 
"One of the things I like about Trump is that he's not a politician and he's not catering to anyone," she says during an interview conducted across the international border on the Forest City bridge. "I agree it's ruined the Republican Party, but I think he's not a politician.

"I think that's part of his problem in getting along with the media and with some of the politicians. He's not one of them, and he doesn't care. I happen to like that attitude, coming right back to the independence." 

That sentiment is common in Maine communities New Brunswickers know well — Bangor, Calais, Houlton, Presque Isle, Fort Kent — and could be key to Trump winning a second term in next Tuesday's election. 

Unlike most states, Maine doesn't use a winner-take-all system for awarding its electoral college votes in presidential elections. 

Two of the state's four votes are awarded based on who wins the vote in the two congressional districts.

Important battleground

In 2016, Trump won Maine's second district, which takes in the vast northern part of the state, capturing its single electoral vote.

"There's a possibility where you would get essentially a tie in the electoral college, 269 to 269, and you need 270 to win," says Colin Woodard, an author and political reporter at the Portland Press-Herald.

"And that means that electoral college vote could become the decisive vote that would win the election." 

That explains recent frequent visits to northern Maine by the Republican candidates or their surrogates. Trump visited a pumpkin patch near Bangor last weekend and Vice-President Mike Pence was in the area before that. Donald Trump Jr. is expected on Thursday.


A Trump supporter living on the border with New Brunswick explains why voters in her part of Maine support the president. 2:13

The spouses of Democratic candidates Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have also campaigned in District 2 in the last week.

"I've never seen so many presidential offices and campaigning in Maine as I've seen this time around," says former Maine governor John Baldacci. "It's just amazing."

Trump's standing in Maine "tracks to differences in the demography and in the sort of fundamental material condition of those two sections of the state," Woodard says, noting lower average incomes, lower education rates and higher poverty rates in District 2.

"It really is a have and have-not situation," he says.


The tiny city of Eastport is just one of many communities in the northern half of Maine to face economic struggles in recent years, a factor that led many voters to support Trump in 2016. (Neile Briant Repompo, submitted)

Baldacci, a Democrat, says Trump "plays on the weak spots," appealing to the grievances of voters who feel left behind by the economic growth around Portland, in the state's south. 

That includes resource-sector workers whose industries have declined, and farmers with complaints about the North American Free Trade Agreement, a favourite Trump target. 

"It was easier to go north of Portland where it was more ripe and take advantage of … people not getting that much attention in the district over the years," Baldacci says of the 2016 campaign.

"Someone paying attention, talking about the problems they've been having, and being there in person — it made quite an impression."

Even Johnson acknowledges Trump has mishandled the COVID-19 pandemic. His response "hasn't been quite serious enough," she says, and she disagrees with his cavalier attitude about wearing masks to stop the virus and about his huge rallies without social distancing.

But she says she believes Trump is stronger on economic growth post-pandemic.


Republicans have made a number of campaign stops in Maine's second district, including the president's stop at Treworgy Orchards near Bangor, a sign of how important his campaign thinks a victory there could be. (Associated Press)

Not all Republicans in District 2 are sticking with Trump. Kevin Raye, a former state senator who runs his family's mustard business in Eastport, announced last month he was voting for Joe Biden. 

"I've been a lifelong Republican, and if someone had told me 10 years ago that I would be endorsing a Democratic candidate for president, I would have said, 'Not in this lifetime,'" he says.

"But things have changed so much in the past few years. And I don't currently really recognize or understand quite what has happened to the Republican Party. … I've been very disappointed and embarrassed by this president."

Raye is still voting to re-elect Republican Sen. Susan Collins, who is in a tough race because of the same political polarization between northern and southern Maine. 

Collins's reputation as a moderate Republican took a hit when she voted to confirm Trump Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanagh, a decision that angered many Democrats in southern Maine who once supported her.

Eastport's Kevin Raye, a former state senator seen here in 2002 shaking hands with then-president George W. Bush, says he never thought he'd vote anything but Republican. This election, he's supporting Joe Biden. (Kevin Raye submitted)

Woodard says Maine still favours moderates, but Collins has been caught between that local sentiment and the pressure to go along with her president in Washington. 

"That's been her quandary. The tug of war she's been in has, I think, has damaged her moderate brand. It's the damaging of that that has put her in a difficult circumstance." 

Johnson is also voting for Collins, calling her a victim of the growing polarization in Maine.

"The state has changed, but she is the same person," she says.

Despite what Woodard calls the "hollowing out" of traditional northern Maine resource industries that helped drive support for Trump four years ago, polls suggest Biden has a narrow lead now in the second district.

The polls close in Maine at 9 p.m. New Brunswick time next Tuesday. 

About the Author

Jacques Poitras

Provincial Affairs reporter

Jacques Poitras has been CBC's provincial affairs reporter in New Brunswick since 2000. Raised in Moncton, he also produces the CBC political podcast Spin Reduxit.

 
 
 
 
218 Comments 
Commenting is now closed for this story.
 
 
 
 
David Amos 
Welcome to the circucs
   
 
Lou Bell
Reply to @David Amos: Surprise ! Surprise ! Surprise !
 
 
Al Clark
Reply to @David Amos: Well well well! Surprise surprise surprise! I was convinced that your short list of broken record responses were produced by pressing a function key. Colour me flabbergasted, like a chinese mill owner finding a shredded panhead at the bottom of the boat ;-)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Jos Allaire
Trump is going to help the have-nots and the poor. As if. It's like the chicken voting for Col. Sanders.
 
 
David Amos
Reply to @Jos Allaire: Surely you jest Trump is the lessor of two evils. Methinks everybody knows the political lawyer Biden is a not so sly old fox who as partaken of far too many chickens for 50 years or so and the very devious political lawyer Madame Harris will be the next president if he prevails N"esy Pas?
 
 
Lou Bell
Reply to @David Amos: Why don't you run ? You're a dual citizen ! After seeing how they took to Trump , I'm sure his base would love you ! They too believe in the social media BS !!!
 
 
David Amos
Content disabled 
Reply to @Lou Bell: Methinks everybody knows that you know I am not a dual citizen but you keep on lying about it anyway for blatantly obvious reasons N'esy Pas?
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Paul Bourgoin
Trump, the President who slivered into the President's Chair!
 
 
David Amos
Reply to @Paul Bourgoin: They all do
 
 
Fred Brewer
Reply to @Paul Bourgoin: Trump, the man who said he would drain the swamp turned out to be the leader of the swamp. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Jos Allaire
That these lunatics live so close to us is a bit scary, don't you think?
 
 
David Amos
Reply to @Jos Allaire: Fraidy Cat
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Jos Allaire
Anyone supporting Trump after this last four years in office should have his/her head examined.
 
 
David Amos
Reply to @Jos Allaire: So you say
 
 
Jos Allaire
Reply to @David Amos: As any fair-minded thinking person does says as well. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Jos Allaire
We should build a barrier, seriously.
 
 
David Amos
Reply to @Jos Allaire: Seriously? What planet are you from???
 
 
Lou Bell
Reply to @David Amos: Actually we're all wondering what one you're from !!
 
 
Jos Allaire
Reply to @Lou DumBell: Uranus!
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Jos Allaire
His hair and face colour sure go well with the pumpkin.
 
 
Fred Brewer
Reply to @Jos Allaire: Sandra Bullock calls it "Cheetos Dust".
 
 
David Amos
Reply to @Jos Allaire: Methinks you should look in the mirror if you wish to laugh N'esy Pas?
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Joseph Carrier
Canadians who are in love with Trump know where they can go, say like Stompin' Tom...
 
 
Johnny Almar
Reply to @Joseph Carrier: I voted for Trump. Being a dual citizen affords me that opportunity. 4 more years.
 
 
Jim Cyr
Reply to @Joseph Carrier: Canada should be SO embarrassed about its own "leader". Yet Canadians love to howl about Trump, probably because doing so means they don't have to think about how embarrassing it is to have Trudeau in office......deflection 101.
 
 
Fred Brewer
Reply to @Johnny Almar: It is of course your right to vote any way you choose. I am not sure you should advertise the fact that you voted for a man who has during the past 4 years told 30,000+ documented, fact-checked lies.
 
 
Graham McCormack
Reply to @Jim Cyr: Not a Trudeau fan but I will take him over Trump any day.
 
 
Kelly Green
Reply to @Jim Cyr: Yep! Not only is your projector broken, the irony in your response here is rusty. The US is currently stuck with inarguably the worst POTUS since Hoover, and arguably the worst one ever, yet you want to diss Canada over their leader?!?!
 
 
Samual Johnston
Reply to @Kelly Green: I'd trade JT for Trump
 
 
Graham McCormack 
Reply to @Samual Johnston: Feel free to move south.
 
 
Theo Lavigne
Reply to @Jim Cyr: If you have a so called masters degree, you should know how to Google Best country to live in the world, if not I will tell you Canada is ranked 4 the USA 23 that a big gap wouldn't 
you say .
 
 
Dan Stewart
Reply to @Samual Johnston: Sort of figured that one out a fair bit ago....no surpise there..
 
 
David Amos
Reply to @Jim Cyr: True
 
 
 
 

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