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https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-us-election-polls-1.5755976
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-us-election-polls-1.5755976
With election day getting closer, Donald Trump's odds are not getting any better
Joe Biden's lead over Donald Trump is now the widest it has been since he became the Democratic nominee
· CBC News · Posted: Oct 09, 2020 4:00 AM ET
U.S. President Donald Trump has fallen further behind in the polls ahead of the Nov. 3 presidential election. (Erin Scott/Reuters)
Two weeks ago, Donald Trump was on track to lose the U.S. presidential election. After a chaotic debate performance and a COVID-19 diagnosis, Trump's chances of winning the election fair and square have only gotten worse.
And he is running out of time.
On Sept. 29, the CBC's Presidential Poll Tracker pegged Democratic nominee and former vice-president Joe Biden as the favourite. His lead in national polls stood at about 7.3 percentage points.
He was ahead by at least five points in enough states to secure 275 electoral college votes, slightly more than the 270 votes needed to win the White House. Trump had a lot of ground to make up — more than he did at the same point of the 2016 campaign against Hillary Clinton.
At the time, however, the incumbent was in a position where he could narrowly secure re-election if he could win the toss-up states and add Florida and Pennsylvania to his electoral map.
But Trump has not made up any ground since then — and the election is 10 days closer.
The Presidential Poll Tracker now puts Biden ahead in national support among decided voters by 10.7 points, his widest lead of the campaign so far. That easily beats the 7.5-point lead Clinton was enjoying at her peak in the 2016 campaign in mid-October, after the last of her three debates with Trump.
Biden now leads by at least five points in states worth a total of 308 electoral college votes, giving him even more margin for error. Add in the states where he leads by between two and five points and Biden appears to be on track to secure over 350 electoral college votes, which would give him a victory about as decisive as Barack Obama's triumph over John McCain in 2008.
A number of factors likely are driving this bump for Biden.
Post-debate polls suggested that more viewers thought Biden won the debate with Trump. The Republican incumbent repeatedly interrupted the Democratic challenger, refrained from denouncing white supremacists and refused to agree to a peaceful transition of power should he lose the election.
The fact that Trump came down with COVID-19 — after spending weeks ridiculing Biden for wearing masks and after publicly demonstrating his disdain for basic preventative measures to keep himself and those around him safe — probably acted as a drag on the president's poll numbers as well. A majority of Americans already disapproved of Trump's management of the pandemic response and a CNN/SSRS poll found that 63 per cent of Americans took a dim view of how he handled the risk of exposing those around him to the coronavirus.
That poll found a majority of respondents in all racial, gender, age and educational demographics agreed that he had acted irresponsibly — including two-thirds of independents. Even 19 per cent of Republicans thought Trump had acted irresponsibly.
Biden's electoral map is growing
A number of states that were only leaning toward Biden a couple weeks ago are now looking safer for the Democratic Party. Florida and New Hampshire, deemed "leaning" states on Sept. 29, are now looking like Biden wins. His margin over Trump has increased by about four points in both states since the first debate.
States that were toss-ups, like Arizona and North Carolina, are now leaning Democratic. Biden's margin has increased by about two points in both of these states.
Trump was narrowly favoured to win Georgia and Iowa on Sept. 29. Now, Biden is projected to be leading by 2.5 points in Iowa and 2.6 points in Georgia.
Texas, leaning Republican two weeks ago, is now a toss-up and a virtual tie between Biden and Trump.
This is a map that gives Biden lots of options. If Biden is able to sweep the Midwest by capturing Iowa and Ohio — in addition to states like Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania that narrowly voted for Trump in 2016 — then he doesn't need to win states in the South like Florida, Georgia or North Carolina. Biden could watch southwestern states like Arizona and Texas remain in the Republican column and still clear the 270-vote mark needed to win the White House.
State-level projections for the U.S. presidential election as of Oct. 8, 2020. (CBC)
Under-performing in the Midwest — as Clinton did in 2016 — would not block his path to victory if Black and Hispanic voters come out in big numbers in Georgia and Arizona.
Having lots of options helps Biden — and those options look a little more solid than they did for Clinton. Biden has widened the map into traditionally Republican states while also putting up better poll numbers among white and older Americans — demographics that could help him win states in the Midwest that Clinton was unable to secure four years ago.
Can Trump turn things around?
There isn't much time remaining for Trump to turn these negative trend lines around. But that doesn't mean he can't do it.
In the CBC's Presidential Poll Tracker in 2016, Clinton's peak national lead of 7.5 points came about three weeks before election day. Clinton's actual margin of victory in the popular vote was 2.1 points when ballots were cast, but thanks to three states Trump won by less than a percentage point, he was able to secure a win in the electoral college.
Trump now needs to see the polls swing by about six to seven points in order to put himself back in the position he was in on election night in 2016. Closing the gap by just five points might not be enough for him to pull off another upset.
That's a lot to ask, considering how much has changed since the last election. There are fewer voters this time who are either undecided or say they will vote for a third party candidate.
Polls suggest a majority of Americans continue to view Trump unfavourably, while Biden is better liked than Clinton was. That means fewer swing voters making up their minds between two candidates they dislike. Those swing voters broke disproportionately for Trump last time.
This has been a roller coaster election campaign, so it's possible the polls could swing again and make this race competitive once more.
But it's just as possible that the trend lines won't improve for Trump — and that, in another two weeks, his prospects look even bleaker than they do today.
CBC's Journalistic Standards and Practices
9589 Comments Recorded by Bullshit tally at 4 pm of the third day
This is after hundreds or even a thousand comments were deleted in order to control the narrative over the course of 3 days
"Living next to you is in some ways like sleeping with an elephant. No matter how friendly and even-tempered is the beast, if I can call it that, one is affected by every twitch and grunt."
Pierre Trudeau
Methinks despite all the vexatious remarks in the arguments from all sides published within this public forum about Trump's bid for a second term the upcoming Yankee election truly is a legitimate concern to all Canadians whether or not they appreciate my kind of fierce politicking and litigation on both sides of the 49th. As Trudeau the Elder said long ago we are mouse in bed with an elephant N'esy Pas?
"The Canadian Intellectual Property Office (CIPO) announced that all deadlines on IP matters falling between March 16, 2020 and June 12, 2020 will be extended.
The result of designating these days is that if a time period is fixed under the Patent Act, Trademarks Act and Industrial Design Act then all such time limits ending on any of these designated days will now be extended until June 15, 2020"
"Living next to you is in some ways like sleeping with an elephant. No matter how friendly and even-tempered is the beast, if I can call it that, one is affected by every twitch and grunt."
Pierre Trudeau
N'esy Pas?????????
Gerry was one of only three delegates who voted against the constitution He also advocated indirect elections. Although he was unsuccessful in obtaining them for the lower house of Congress, Gerry did obtain such indirect elections for the Senate, whose members were to be selected by the state legislatures. Gerry also advanced numerous proposals for indirect elections of the President of the United States, most of them involving limiting the right to vote to the state governors and electoral college. (Imagine that?)
Methinks despite his protests he did mind twisting things so he could be the Governor of Massachusetts before dying in office as the fifth vice president of the United States under Madison N'esy Pas?
Reply to @David Amos: maybe Trump can pull some strings and get your Medicare card back for ya ;)
"President Trump’s son Eric on Sunday called his father’s treatment for COVID-19 a vaccine that he further claimed the president helped create from “day one.”
“My father literally started day one creating this vaccine. He worked to push this vaccine and now my father just took it and you see how well he got over it,” Eric Trump told ABC “This Week’s” Jon Karl."
The stupid, it burns.
I've read that too, but it wasn't written by Hillary. In fact I've encountered that possibility multiple times, including one in which the writer disputes the possibility.
Go Figure why I blog everything and tweet about it first
Enjoy.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/fundy-royal-riding-profile-1.3274276
(This particular poll had Clinton only up 4 at this equivalent time, though that was on low end.)"
It's Trump who's refusing. He won't produce proof of non-contagious and he won't do remote. So Biden is not taking any chances by being in the same room with a person who is contagious.
Scroll up then go figure why he narrative is controlled
However, looking back at the same period in 2016, a number of polls–at least 13–showed Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton with a big lead over Donald Trump in the month preceding the November 2016 election.
He'll be elected again by the same people, those who find him as a lesser evil.
Not only are neither of those situation now unprecedented, meaning they're being factored into the electoral calculation results, but the conditions that were affecting the black vote no longer apply, as the IRA influencing campaign has been largely outed, and both twitter and facebook are being much more proactive in eliminating false bots and making links to fake news sites much more apprant.
In addition, Biden does not have the disadvantage of several million dollars of public money being used over several years to try to create smoke around him, nor does he have the disadvantage of running in American politics as a woman.
Whether the media was shocked at the result, or cried, or did whatever seems to have gotten you aroused, is irrelevant to what the facts surrounding the polls and the eventual results were.
Methinks you should act ethically and review your own words in lieu of trying to sneak in the last word before the comment section closes so it would appear that I did not meet your dubious rebuttal N'esy Pas?
Methinks if you are truly serious email me your contact info and we can swap the money digitally when we see whether or not Biden et al stuff the Srpreme Court with their cronies if and he is elected.. Everybody knows my contact info is readily available on the Internet or they can query the docket in Federal Court then scroll to the bottom of my complaint File No T-1557-15 N'esy Pas?
Agreed, he isvthexworlds biggest baby.
If he was confident of winning, he wouldn't be pushing through a new SCG.
The writings on the wall.
We've yet to see how low he'll go as he becomes increasingly desperate to remain in power and benefit from the legal impunity the position holds.
Methinks the fat lady ain't sung yet south of the Medicine Line and north of it Mr Bachman of BTO is still entertaining us over the British Queen's pubic media airwaves N'esy Pas?
"As president, I won't have time to golf."
"Mexico will pay for the wall."
"I don't know who Stormy Daniels is."
Only fools still listen to Trump.
It’s the ones that say, only he speaks the truth, you gotta worry about.
With 43.4% of Americans still supporting Trump, it is beyond obvious that the education system has
It might be slightly lower than that. 13 Trump supporters were arrested recently.
They need to be sent to some of the left's re-education facilities so that they can eliminate their wrongthink and get the hivemind.
And that's what makes the "43.4% of Americans" so problematic. They won't ever listen to science or hold informed opinions about important issues (basically, even if Trump loses they will just wait for "the next Trump").
It will require a string of many consecutive defeats for the "43.4% of Americans" to learn to listen to science.
Education is needed, yes. But, deprogramming is also needed for the millions that have been thinking everything Trump has said has all been truthful. It will take years to recover. Thankfully, he will have neutralized the GOP until the late 2030s at least.
Perhaps you should check my work?
Methinks the devil you know is better than the devil you don't because I know from personal experience the political lawyers HRC and her buddies Obama Biden and Harris are pure D evil. Obviously many Yankees agree with me N'
The Second Day
If you're trying to be clever (you're failing) it's spelled "n'est pas" lower case.
BTW Methinks Trudeau the Younger and his fellow French Quebeckers may spell it n'est-ce pas ?
Sleeping with a very cranky elephant: The history of Canada-U.S. tensions
CBC Radio · Posted: Jun 15, 2018 5:56 PM ET
In 1969, Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau travelled to Washington to meet with President Richard Nixon and coined a phrase that has come to define relations between Canada and the U.S.
"Living next to you is in some ways like sleeping with an elephant. No matter how friendly and even-tempered is the beast, if I can call it that, one is affected by every twitch and grunt," said the late Pierre Trudeau
Today, the bitter truth of that observation is being felt by Pierre Trudeau's son.
And these days, Canada's neighbours to the south — or at least their current president — don't appear particularly friendly or even-tempered
When President Trump imposed tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum under the pretext of national security, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Canada would impose equivalent tariffs if the United States does not back down
"Canadians: we're polite, we're reasonable, but we also will not be pushed around," said Trudeau
Trump retaliated with a Twitter tirade calling Trudeau "weak" and "dishonest." He later said Trudeau's comments would "cost a lot of money for the people of Canada"
In the long, colourful history of Canada-U.S. relations, there have been moments when presidents and prime ministers have hated each other and made no secret of it
But today, diplomatic relations between the two countries may be in uncharted territory.
"We've seen insults in international relations before. Hitler made very rude speeches about western leaders, Mussolini laughed at them. That sort of thing has happened between enemies. But something like this between friends ... I do find it absolutely extraordinary," says historian Margaret MacMillan
It's not just Canada.
Donald has been busy alienating the leaders of all the US' allies, even as he cozies up to the autocratic types like Putin & Kim that he loves.
The next president will have a lot of fence-mending to do.
However if the political lawyer Biden (whom I crossed paths with in a bigtime fashion in 2003 before i ran for a seain the 37th Parliament) were to win trust that it will not be his soon to be stand-in who will make amends with many world leaders.
Methinks Trump et al are very well aware that I crossed with the dubious political lawyer Madame Harris when she was the Attorney General of California and Gerry Brown was her Governor N'esy Pas?
'Oh my God, what did I say?' How Justin Trudeau learned to deal with Donald Trump
New book by CBC's Aaron Wherry reveals the inside story of the 2 leaders' rift
Rosemary Barton · CBC News · Posted: Aug 11, 2019 5:00 PM ET
"First, Trudeau had to make sure he survived a handshake.
The PM's first visit to Washington after the presidential election happened in February 2017. The meeting was carefully co-ordinated on both sides of the border to make sure nothing happened that would cause either government trouble.
Even that first public encounter between the two leaders, Wherry writes, was closely choreographed by Trudeau's people, who were fully aware that Trump's aggressive, dominance-signalling handshakes had become a point of interest for the media.
The physicality of Trump
"[Gerry Butts's] line to me was, 'Think of the physicality of it,'" Trudeau told Wherry. "The basic idea was to stay on balance. It was a topic of discussion on the flight to Washington. It's sort of silly that we would do that, but [the goal was to] make sure it's not a thing."
As it turned out, it wasn't a thing. But for Trudeau, that small win was short-lived."
another trumpolini 1st.
Small edit: ", and he committed YET ANOTHER felony."
Well as a whistleblower against financial crimes my point has always been that the politicians are all crooks on both sides of the Medicine Line. Methinks after being falsely imprisoned on both sides of that line after I ran against your cousin and his many cohorts in 2004 I definitely have the right not to trust anyone with your last name who is from the Bay of Fundy area The infamous French blogger in Fat Fred City is a shining example.
Methinks anyone can type "David Amos Federal Court" into their favourite broswer to view your cousin from Memramcook spewing his BS to a very good Acadian friend of mine N'esy Pas?
Methinks you have easily proven that you are just another hit and run Fake Left Spin Doctor N'esy Pas?
I find it ironic that someone whose credibility in ANALYSING federal elections is well established could not win when HE ran.
Daniel's misinterpreting harmless levity as an attack on Lichtman's credibility is Daniel's problem.
Methinks you did so and opted to exit stage left in a rather snide fashion N'esy Pas?
Deny the.. Reality?? Create and live in an... alternate Reality?? When does one have to face up to... Reality?? The US State of Michigan... showed what happened to some... who had issues with... Reality. Much of America... had issues with... Reality... all summer long.
Time to actually face up to... Reality. America gets to do that on 03 Nov.
Now as to the... Reality of the vote... some will deny that Reality... if it does not go their way.
That is a very... troubling Reality.
Hear him preach how he loves his country.
Hear him preach how he hates "Liberals"...
And "Moderates"...and "Intellectuals...
And "Activists"...and "Pacifists"...
And "Minority Groups"...and "Aliens"...
And "Unions"...and "Teenagers"...
And the "Very Rich"...and the "Very Poor"...
And "People With Foreign-Sounding Names".
Now you know what a Super Patriot is.
He's someone who loves his country
While hating 93% of the people who live in it.
-- Mad Magazine,1968
Do you subscribe to these R, -ists ?
That's messed up dude.
No wonder they think they have support.
Humour requires some intelligence; too hard for Trumpies.
Methinks they made quit a joke out of the your beloved DNC last time much to HRC's chagrin N'esy Pas?
Hear, hear.
If you are going to use our other official language, why not use it correctly?
IF, that is Acadian French then I stand down, is it?
I have a very high opinion of my Acadian brothers and sisters.
FYI I ran in the elections of Fundy Royal 3 times thus far
Methinks if anyone doubts me they can type "Fundy Royal Debate" into their favourite browser I do believe the one in 2016 is fairly popular even to this very day N'esy Pas?
far Right has their sparring gloves on.
Problem being, they can't fight!!!
No Danny, they will say I can't spar I have bone spurs in my hands ...
How about the midterms, where the GOP was predicted to have a spanking, and got one?
Yea Right HRC would have gladly acceted their decion if it was in her favour
Methinks you don't know what HRC and Trump It is that I have a stake in this nonsense because I am married to a Yankee lady and the Proud Canadian Father of 2 Yankee As an Independent politician I supported neither of them and everybody know that I still don't. However the truth is still the truth N'esy Pas?
Nobody should deny that legions of Canadians are waging social media campaigns in support of either Biden or Trump N'esy Pas?
Methinks there is no need for me to be redundant Perhaps you should scroll up through this thread before emabrassing yourself further N'esy Pas?
"Reply to @Glenn Storey: Nope Its its Chiac BTW you spelled it wrong too Quebeckers like it it spelled this way "N'est-ce pas" However methinks my many Acadian friends enjoy the joke because if you can't find fun in this madness you will go crazy N'esy Pas?
Please enjoy a little Deja Vu
"Methinks you don't know what HRC and Trump It is that I have a stake in this nonsense because I am married to a Yankee lady and the Proud Canadian Father of 2 Yankee As an Independent politician I supported neither of them and everybody knows that I still don't. However the truth is still the truth N'esy Pas?"
Sunday is planned
Americans aren't buying it, and value the rule of law, and expect order in their nation.
That is ridiculous, but even if it were true, how would it violate the rule of law?
what exactly is the best method for fashioning a head piece form Reynolds Wrap? You sound very experienced in the matter.
2) California is the richest and most successful state in America
3) The fact that Harris could potential step into the Presidency down the road is a positive and a good reason to vote for Biden.
Trump was ahead in GA by 4 points in 2016, now it’s Biden by 1 pt. 5 pt swing in AZ, 3 pts in OH, 4 pts in IA. Trump has even managed to lose 6 pts in TX and 7 pts in MT. Not a good sign for Republicans.
Trump has much more ground to make up than in 2016. I can’t see how he wins without Putin’s help, absolutely massive voter suppression, and favorable court rulings in Democratic-run states
By the same people who nominated him last time. Winning the Nobel is news.
210,000 American bodies are curious to know
People pay more attention when the nominations are made by credible individuals.
Read the fine print . . . it is the "PEACE" prize, not an award for racism, stupidity and incompetence.
That is the gong show. You and your hero are on the wrong channel . . . oops, sorry . . . that show was cancelled.
They are just so cute aren't they?!!!
Fixated on CBC?
Whether it is his virus response, right wing response ...........and the list just never ends.
I agree. It seems he's the master of his own demise.
The Democrats have been vicious in their attacks and Trump responded poorly instead of showing statesmanship.
He missed the opportunity to turn it against them.
I suspect he's gonna lose big.
On an upside, he has enough supporters to start another Kardashian style cable TV show and become a legitimate billionaire.
I'm sure that you can do wanted you was in the west US
Just leave us alone in the middle
we don't want to see you or like you
Thee are three countries.
The west, the middle and the east
You would be better off either looking out a window, or flipping a coin, if you *think* the CBC has a handle on anything political. Remember, these "news clerks" picked/predicted Killery Clinton for the win in the last US election.
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