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David Raymond Amos‏ @DavidRayAmos

Replying to @DavidRayAmos @Kathryn98967631 and 48 others

Methinks anyone with half a clue knew it was a sucker play out of the gate When Trudeau The Younger sucked in the hook line and sinker no doubt the Yankees laughed all the way to the bank N'esy Pas?

 #nbpoli #cdnpoli #abpoli

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/notley-oil-production-cut-jen-gerson-opinion-1.4930248

Notley has done the right thing — her mistake was to trust Trudeau

2260 Comments
Commenting is now closed for this story.

 
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rick ward

As did his father, JT hates Alberta . His mandate is to keep the oil in the ground as he has public stated previously in campaign speeches. The "Build a firewall" around Alberta attitude is starting to resonate again. Alberta was the encomium engine that kept this country running.

Transfer payments to Quebec (who rejected the east/west) pipeline while continuing to enjoy $7.00 a day, child daycare, as well as other infrastructure benefits can all be attributed to the proceeds of Alberta oil whether we like it or not. Indeed Notley's biggest error was to trust the wolf in sheep clothing residing in Ottawa.

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Denny O'Brien

@rick ward cry me a river

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David Amos

@Denny O'Brien I concur

  

Frank Grimes

I'm starting to think the real reason JT purchased transmountain was to scuttle it.

David Amos

@Frank Grimes Methinks anyone with half a clue knew it was a sucker play out of the gate When Trudeau The Younger sucked in the hook line and sinker no doubt the Yankees laughed all the way to the bank N'esy Pas?

Tyler Scarn

@david mccaig This is not true. That vast majority or gas we burn in our cars is coming from overseas and from countries who have extremely low environmental standards. The oil we are importing (by millions of barrels) is actually dirtier. We are also supporting countries with terrible human rights issues by doing this. Let not even start on the billions of dollars we send over to get their oil when that could be kept here.

David Amos

@Tyler Scarn Methinks byway of all the trains rolling by the Irving Clan must be making quite score on cheap western oil N'esy Pas?

Richard Sharp

@Frank Grimes

Watched Power and Politics today, a torture for me. It has been so contemptuously anti-Liberal and anti-Trudeau for YEARS now I can’t stand it. I’ll not turn it back on for another several months.

David Amos

@Richard Sharp "Watched Power and Politics today, a torture for me."

Tell us another one Methinks you are drawn to it like a moth to a flames N'esy Pas?

mo bennett

@Frank Grimes never trust any politician.

David Amos

@mo bennett "never trust any politician".

YO MO Methinks we agree once again N'esy Pas?

 
Shaun Way

as long as the UN is happy, who cares about Canadians.

David Amos

@Shaun Way Methinks the one thing the greedy dudes in the UN know for sure is that it is a dog eat dog world N'esy Pas?

 
Jace Braidwith

She has proven herself a real leader, among others holding elite positions in Canadian politics who have failed to lead. She's impressive.

David Amos

@Jace Braidwith Dream on

Larry Smith

If Mr. Trudeau was truely concerned with the country he would insist and push through the Energy East pipeline and outlaw importing oil from the middle east, especially since he is continually providing them lectures on morality.

David Amos

@Larry Smith Methinks you are flogging a dead horse N'esy Pas?

colleen fraser (The Minister of Common Sense)

Lesson well learned never trust a liberal

Troy Mann

@Justin Smith

No
Liberals cancelled 1 which was a disaster in the making
KML will start construction next construction season, those belching 'build the pipeline now' are not able to understand we have winter in Canada.
Energy east died when trump approved Keystone.

David Amos

@colleen fraser (The Minister of Common Sense) Methinks your commons sense should tell you to apply your lesson learned to all politicians N'esy Pas?

David Amos

@Troy Mann Yea Right

 
Ron Vader

I don't understand how BC could agree to accept and ship dirty coal for another nation but prevent an oil pipeline for her own people.

David Amos

@Ron Vader Welcome to the Circus

 
Richard Palibroda

Imagine how upset Canadians would be if the largest exporter of US coal from Vancouver harbor were not allowed to send to China who produces 30 % of the worlds CO2 or subsidized Bombardier was not allowed to sell tanks to corrupt the Saudi's .

Denny O'Brien

@Richard Palibroda strawman

Aaron Morris

@Denny O'Brien

Embarrassing that you don’t know that that isn’t a strawman. I

David Amos

@Aaron Morris Methinks strawmen don't know nothing because their heads are full of nothing but stuffing N'esy Pas?

 
Will DeLorme

Well written opinion piece .

Troy Mann

@Will DeLorme

So now you love the CBC and aren't claiming liberal bias????

David Amos

@Will DeLorme LMAO

David Amos

@Troy Mann Cry me a river

 
Clint Allen

Ancient Proverb.
Never trust a Trudeau.

Gary McGarry

@Clint Allen Ancient Proverb
Never Trust a Conservative!

David Amos

@Gary McGarry Methinks Confucius said never trust any of them N'esy Pas?

Ross James

Why does anyone ever listen to the absurdities of the conservatives?
Oil prices and trade is Justins fault as is honouring the rights of those who oppose the pipelines. According to conservatives they should not have such rights.Just the oil patch.
Vote conservative? Not now, not ever.

Byron Whitford

@Ross James

Trudeau has put more roadblocks in front of resource development than any PM in Canadian history.

He killed the Northern Gateway and Eagle Spirit pipeline proposals in his very first year when he introduced his oil export ban for northern BC

He stood by and shook Obama's hand when he tried to kill KXL.

He has put in place a bill that will kill any possibility of any major future oil and gas development and pipelines and interferes with Provincial jurisdiction over resources.

He has now stalled TMX and nationalized the existing pipeline to ensure they have full control over it. This will allow them to decommission it in the future with few problems

He has failed to send the question of the "Duty to consult" to the SCC for a clear mandate and definition. This will result in future delays as both the government and the lower courts make it up as they go.

Alberta doesn't need help from Justin Trudeau. They need him to get the hell out of the way.

David Amos

@Byron Whitford Methinks you forgot NAFTA 2.0 N'esy Pas?

John Young

CBC must be having a mid life crisis. This has to be the first anti-Trudeau story since 2015.

John Douglas

@John Young

just wake up from a coma?

David Amos

@John Douglas Methinks many would agree that Mr Young is correct N'esy Pas?

Notley has done the right thing — her mistake was to trust Trudeau

To cut or not to cut was an impossible choice but Alberta's premier has been a capable, national leader

Jen Gerson · for CBC News · Posted: Dec 03, 2018 11:09 AM MT

Alberta Premier Rachel Notley speaks during an announcement of a mandatory cut in oil production on Sunday, Dec. 2, 2018. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press)

There will, no doubt, be those who believe that Alberta Premier Rachel Notley finally got her most closely guarded wish on Sunday night when she announced she would cut oil production by 8.7 per cent. That she, as an oilsands-hater, finally dunked the industry in policy molasses, to the delight of her covert environmentalist allies.

At the risk of inviting untold hell into my email inbox, I disagree.

• Stop with the sympathy, take action, Notley urges Ottawa on oil price issue
• ANALYSIS | Alberta bets on oil production cuts but industry remains divided on market intervention

I do not believe that interpretation squares either with her actions or with the successive cross-blows aimed squarely at Alberta over the past three years.

A dramatic oil-price crash. Keystone XL delays. A near trade war with an intransigent British Columbia. Unfavourable federal court rulings. A federal government that killed the Northern Gateway pipeline to score points with progressives.

None of this can fairly be laid at Notley's door.

But all are things she has had to contend with.

Preserve value

It also fails to jive with the fact that both the Alberta Party and the United Conservative Party concur with Notley's decision that cutting production is the only way to diminish the enormous price differential between world oil and the Alberta equivalent — a dramatic discount that is largely due to a lack of pipeline capacity.

At current levels, oil producers are simply mining too much, leading to an enormous backlog of supply that simply can't get to market. And what happens when the market is glutted with supply?
Well, the price drops.

Albertans are, essentially, paying people to take our oil. And with each barrel dumped, less money finds its way into the provincial treasury.

• Shares in Cenovus, Canadian Natural soar on Alberta crude production cuts
• ANALYSIS | Eye-roll nation: Why our sympathy for economic pain often stops at provincial borders

Just as Peter Lougheed explained in 1980, when he cut production to gain leverage over Central Canada during the National Energy Program, reducing production is the only immediate way to preserve the oil's value for the future.

Eventually, the capacity problem will be solved.

Either the railcars the provincial government has purchased will come online next year, or a new consultation process on the Trans Mountain pipeline extension will finally pass. In time, the differential will decrease. And, as there is no sign that the world will be abandoning oil in the immediate term, there will still be a market for the product whenever we find a way to get to it.

In short, there is some reason for cautious optimism. Cutting production now is a gamble on a better future.

I can take issue with several actions of Notley's government, but this isn't one of them.

A capable, national leader

To cut or not to cut was an impossible choice, each position fraught with potential pitfalls. Notley's decision to preserve the value of the oil is a perfectly sound one.

On the whole, Notley has proven herself a capable national leader during one of the most fraught economic periods of Alberta's recent history.

This has been a centre-left government, sure. She has raised taxes, raised the minimum wage, imposed a carbon tax, and I still do not like the ever-increasing debt ballooning on the government's books.

However, it's difficult to pin this government as radical, regardless of how many times she was seen on camera attending an environmentalist rally before she became premier.

No one argues that this province should try to make itself more dependent on the oil and gas sector. Most acknowledge the need to diversify Alberta's economy. This is an entirely pragmatic position given the uncertain state of play within the energy industry.

The difference between a conservative politician and a left-leaning one is only that they disagree about how to go about diversifying the economy — the former is more inclined to keep taxes low and leave the market to manage itself out.

Rachel Notley, who hails from a long-standing Albertan political family, does not have a vested interest in shuttering the province's primary industry.

Grant Notley, pictured with two of his three children, was the Alberta NDP leader. His daughter, Rachel Notley, is now the province's premier. (CBC Archives)

It is ludicrous to insinuate that she takes pleasure in seeing so many of its citizens out of work, as elements on the fringe right so often seem to suggest.

The Notley government's actions to date have been explicable and largely grounded in practical realities. Nothing tames an anti-pipeline activist more effectively than putting him in front of the ledger and asking him to figure out how to pay Alberta nurses, doctors and teachers.

If Notley has one glaring failure to her name, it's that she, as an NDP premier, like so many Progressive Conservative governments before her, has been unwilling to do what was necessary to wean the provincial operating budgets from the caprice of oil royalties.

That said, unlike previous PC governments, the economy has given her no room to do so.

A rigged game

By comparison, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has been playing a rigged game from both ends.

His party has paid lip service to progressives on the pipeline file, undermining, destroying and then re-building a regulatory process that now appears to be so stringent that it's unlikely a new pipeline can ever be built in this country again.

At the same time, the Liberals try to keep the oil and gas sector just barely afloat enough to cover for an economy that looks increasingly chaotic and unstable with every passing plant closure and Trump tweet. This is a government that shuts down Northern Gateway as it buys Trans Mountain.

A protester holds a photo of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau covered in oil during a protest against the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion in Vancouver, B.C., on Tuesday, May 29, 2018. (Darryl Dyck/Canadian Press)

Trudeau wants to feed the golden goose just enough to keep laying eggs, but not a morsel more.
In the process, the Liberals please no one.

Notley's approval ratings generally spike when she bops Ottawa on the nose, and it's entirely possible that cutting production will similarly help her now. Anything is better than doing nothing. But sometimes the people who make good, popular decisions still lose.

The failure, here, is Ottawa's.

Faith in the wrong people

Yet, if blame can be placed on Notley for one thing, it's this — that she placed her faith in the wrong people.

Her mistake was to trust Trudeau.

And in so doing, she now finds herself alone and without the necessary alliances to succeed. This is in stark contrast to UCP leader Jason Kenney, who now has the clear backing of most conservative leaders at the provincial and federal level.

That fact alone may decide the fate of the next provincial election — not necessarily who will be the best leader, or the most promising party, but, rather, who has the clout to win the pipeline war.

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This column is an opinion. For more information about our commentary section, please read this editor's blog and our FAQ.

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Calgary: The Road Ahead is CBC Calgary's special focus on our city as it passes through the crucible of the downturn: the challenges we face, and the possible solutions as we explore what kind of Calgary we want to create. Have an idea? Email us at calgarytheroadahead@cbc.ca

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More from the series:

• ANALYSIS | Why Alberta's economic 'recovery' feels so different this time
• ​OPINION | Why it's hypocritical for oil companies to ask Alberta government to manipulate market prices
• OPINION | If Albertans want to avoid fiscal disaster, the only choices left are difficult ones

About the Author

Jen Gerson

Jen Gerson is a freelance journalist based in Calgary.

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